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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; Amcon Distributing</title>
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		<title>Resource Stock Roundup Monday, October 20th, 2008</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/resource-stock-roundup-monday-october-20th-2008/6639</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/resource-stock-roundup-monday-october-20th-2008/6639#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Oct 2008 13:31:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Doug Casey</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AEM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AMC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amcon Distributing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canadian Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Doug Casey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Goldcorp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HBM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kinross Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mining stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[silver prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TCK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[YRI]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=6639</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>It was a quiet news day during Friday trading on the Canadian markets as investors bailed out of the gold stocks and went bargain hunting for undervalued base metal plays. For the tale of the tape, the TSX exchange rallied 3.16%, while the TSX Gold Index fell 2.9% and the TSX Venture Exchange, Canada’s largest junior exploration bourse, added 0.89% with the declining issuers inching past the advancers by a 444 to 419 margin on good volume of 169 million shares traded.</p>
<p>Shares of Hudbay Minerals (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Hudbay+Minerals">HBM</a>) added C$0.38 to close at C$5.35, while Lundin Mining failed to attract interest losing C$0.05 to close at C$1.95.</p>
<p>Diversified miner Teck Cominco (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=TSE:TCK.B">TCK</a>) added C$1.20 to close at C$16.30.</p>
<p>Shares of Blue Note Mining (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Blue+Note+Mining">BN</a>)&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It was a quiet news day during Friday trading on the Canadian markets as investors bailed out of the gold stocks and went bargain hunting for undervalued base metal plays. For the tale of the tape, the TSX exchange rallied 3.16%, while the TSX Gold Index fell 2.9% and the TSX Venture Exchange, Canada’s largest junior exploration bourse, added 0.89% with the declining issuers inching past the advancers by a 444 to 419 margin on good volume of 169 million shares traded.<span id="more-6639"></span></p>
<p>Shares of Hudbay Minerals (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Hudbay+Minerals">HBM</a>) added C$0.38 to close at C$5.35, while Lundin Mining failed to attract interest losing C$0.05 to close at C$1.95.</p>
<p>Diversified miner Teck Cominco (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=TSE:TCK.B">TCK</a>) added C$1.20 to close at C$16.30.</p>
<p>Shares of Blue Note Mining (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Blue+Note+Mining">BN</a>) hit C$0.01 after the company announced that its Caribou and Restigouche zinc and lead mines in eastern Canada are being put on care and maintenance. Current zinc and lead prices make the operation unprofitable.</p>
<p>Shares of Alexis Minerals (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Alexis+Minerals">AMC</a>) jumped C$0.09 to close at C$0.395 following news of a 3.45 metre drill intercept running 6.81% copper at its project in Val d’Or, Quebec.</p>
<p>The big board gold miners got slammed yet again as Barrick Gold (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=TSE:ABX">ABX</a>) fell C$1.11 to close at C$27.93, <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=TSE:G">Goldcorp </a>dropped C$1.05 to close at C$23.70, <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=TSE:K">Kinross Gold</a> ended the day down C$0.15 at C$12.75, Yamana Gold (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=TSE:YRI">YRI</a>) gave back C$0.09 to close at 5.55 and Agnico Eagle (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=TSE:AEM">AEM</a>) bucked the trend by adding C$0.61 to close at C$42.53.</p>
<p>Inflation versus deflation seems to be the trading story of the day, with several pundits now betting against gold as interest rates appear set to fall further. We will see what Monday trading has in store.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayDrpArchives.php">Source: Resource Stock Roundup Monday, October 20th, 2008</a></p>
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		<title>The Best Known Volatility Tool Is Not the One for Us</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-best-known-volatility-tool-is-not-the-one-for-us/2396</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-best-known-volatility-tool-is-not-the-one-for-us/2396#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 May 2008 14:33:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lynn Carpenter</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Stock Market Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amcon Distributing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ATR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Education Realty Trust]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Enron]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iParty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Profit Margins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Warner Chilcott]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Warren Buffett]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">The payoff for investing  in a sure thing is lower than usual these days—a 90-day T-bill only pays 1.8%. </font></p>
<p>But the quest for better returns comes with greater uncertainty. That’s why investors have developed so many tools to take the edge off the potential surprises stocks can spring on them… from fundamentals like P/E ratios to technicals like trend lines. Not surprisingly, the academics in finance have worked on the problem, too. And boy do they have a deal for you. This one involves our new best friend, volatility. We’ve had two unusual tools for looking at volatility—Average True Range and Zigzag. Now we’ll look at the one that gets all the press and even went to college.</p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Suppose you had&#8230;</font></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">The payoff for investing  in a sure thing is lower than usual these days—a 90-day T-bill only pays 1.8%. </font><span id="more-2396"></span></p>
<p>But the quest for better returns comes with greater uncertainty. That’s why investors have developed so many tools to take the edge off the potential surprises stocks can spring on them… from fundamentals like P/E ratios to technicals like trend lines. Not surprisingly, the academics in finance have worked on the problem, too. And boy do they have a deal for you. This one involves our new best friend, volatility. We’ve had two unusual tools for looking at volatility—Average True Range and Zigzag. Now we’ll look at the one that gets all the press and even went to college.</p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Suppose you had to choose one stock from several to buy, but you weren’t allowed to know anything about the companies. You aren’t allowed to ask about any of their strategies for growth or to find out whether they have enough cash flow and current assets to cover the bills. You don’t know their profit margins or even what business they are in. </font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Well fear not, oh lucky you. You can use the academic version of volatility to measure your risk. It’s called beta, and nothing could be more uncomplicated than this. It’s a miracle anything so understandable even got published, but it did and finance schools from coast to coast have embraced it.</font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Here’s the drill: If the beta is high, the stock is risky, though it could pay off well but there’s a lot of danger. If beta’s low, the stock will probably just hum along. The return may be market average or modest, but the risk is low.  </font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">So far, we’ve looked at volatility you can see with your eyes, volatility you can measure in dollars and sense (ATR). And volatility you can describe in percentage (Zigzag). The academic’s beta version is volatility measured yet another way—in comparison to the market. Usually, they use the S&amp;P 500 as a stand-in for the market.</font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">This measure assumes the market has a value of 1.0. Any stock that moves in tandem with the market, about the same amount also has a 1.0 beta. </font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">If it moves twice as much,  beta goes up to 2.0. </font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">If it moves 20% less than  the market, the beta falls under 1.0, to 0.8. </font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">You get the idea. It can also be negative. If a stock moves half as much as the market, but in the opposite direction, the beta is -0.5. Most stocks fall between .5 and 2.5, with more of them clustered toward the higher end of the scale.</font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">So now you know exactly how to find a safe stock. Yes, sir! You go buy yourself some Enron in 2000. You know it’s super safe because Enron only had a beta of 0.47.  </font></p>
<p align="center"><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Here’s your low beta—             Enron 2000: </strong></font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><img src="http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/Issues/Charts/MAY%2008/05-22-08-Thur-IDE_clip_image002.jpg" width="545" height="431" /><br />
This is known as using  damned lying statistics.So what if Enron is going to drop from $89 to 60 cents and you could have just looked at the actual facts of the business like cash flow instead of beta and avoided all that pain? As Warren Buffett has said, this is the kind of common sense that’s OK in practice, but it will never work out in theory.</font></p>
<table style="border-top: 1px solid #000000; border-bottom: 1px solid #000000" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
<tr>
<td style="font-family: Verdana,Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 13px">
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<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Using beta-volatility as a measure of risk would lead you to a strange version of safety today as well. You might buy Warner Chilcott (beta 0.6), iParty (0.6) or Amcon Distributing (-0.5) or Education Realty Trust (0.2)—all companies with massive debt, poor growth and small to no profits. Any of those could be winners on some planet, but to call them low risk is like calling LeBron James medium-big.</font></p>
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