Like today, for instance.

Everywhere I look, there is evidence that the American economy is in shambles. As investors, the cards are certainly stacked against us. At this point it even looks like the system may be rigged.

But we all know there is always a way out.

As a guide, there was a handful of times when I was positive the outcome would be grossly negative. Like the time a freak storm and its 70-mph winds decided to turn my boat into a submarine.

Or the time I sat in the back of 1958 deHavilland Beaver clinging to an outboard motor as the pilot dealt with the adverse gravitational effects of an overloaded plane caught in a mountainous downdraft?

Who knew an old floatplane could not climb and turn at the same time? We scared the hell out of the squirrels in our flight path.

Or how about the time an angry black bear nearly itched a scratch on my back? My colleagues have heard that story more than a few times.

And then there’s the trip that involved a naked Irishman, a bottle of expensive scotch, a broken canoe and a set of waterfalls called the “Devil’s Washboard.”

It’s no wonder my wife has a casket salesman on speed dial.

Beside the fact the naked Irishmen was a trader for a major hedge fund, these little “learning experiences” have little to do with investing.

Unless, that is, you believe the current market environment is the equivalent of being on the brink of death.

I happen to believe exactly that.

Look at the news today. I’d take my chances with a hungry bear than re-read today’s layoff headlines.

Thanks to its merger, Black & Decker is “trying” to keep its job cuts below 4,000. Nokia Siemens is axing 5,700 workers. Johnson & Johnson is cutting 7% of its workforce. Royal Bank of Scotland is cleansing its headcount by 3,700 workers.

While the markets bank on recovery, the facts are screaming something totally different.

The gold markets offer similar evidence of an impending fight for survival.

Thanks to word that India is the IMF’s mystery gold buyer (to the tune of $6.7 billion), gold prices made a massive stretch into record territory today.

India making a 200 metric ton purchase, there’s just over 200 tons left before countries looking to hedge their stack of greenbacks have to hit the volatile spot market.

You can bet Beijing is paying attention to the news. Gold prices will not stop climbing at $1,100 per ounce and it has some buying to do.

Finally, as if to kick us while we are down, Australia went ahead and raised its key lending rate by another 25 basis points.

Pretty soon, investors won’t have any choice but invest outside the States.

Fortunately, my time on the water and in the air helps proves, pardon the cliché, where there’s a will there’s a way.

The mere fact I have all my limbs and enough blood to keep my heart primed is testament to man’s ability to find a solution.

If you are reading this newsletter, you are already wise to many of the solutions necessary to overcome a ferocious bear like no other.

Do not hesitate to enact those measures.

Believe me, when the pilot yells, “brace, brace, brace,” it’s too late to find cover. You need to strap on the parachute before the squirrels are screaming.

*** Speaking of finding protection. How about a set of triple-digit gainers during a week when most investors were looking for a pillow to cry into?

That’s just what TFN Strategic Trader members were handed this week as the three plays I recommended to take advantage of the natural gas industry’s impending downfall soared in value.

Last I looked, the trades were good for gains of 228%, 177% and 33%.

It is not to late to get in on the action.

Get this little factoid: Year-over-year gas rig counts have been down by over 50% for six months, yet onshore production is down by just 0.5%. It proves we are getting too good at pumping natural gas from the ground. Now the industry is paying dearly.

As I write, natural gas is trading for $4.87 per MMBtu. It’s headed back to $2.50 real quick, real soon.

Read my full report and get in on the trades here.

*** Finally, keep an eye on that news from Warren Buffett today. He’s giving Burlington Northern investors a choice: take $100 cash for each share or trade them for shares of Berkshire Hathaway.

I’d take the cash and run.

If enough investors make the same move, it is a surefire sign of growing fears of a downturn. When Buffet gives the nod on a 50:1 split, you know a storm is brewing.

For me, it’s any port in a storm.

At this level, gold isn’t overly dramatic. We haven’t seen any really big moves one way or the other. The big moves will happen, eventually, I believe. We just have to be patient.

Why do I believe that gold will soar? Well, we’re still in the early chapters of the overall “gold story.” The plot is still forming, although I believe that all of the main characters are on stage.

We have excessive U.S. government spending. It’s out of control, to all intents and purposes. We have the deepening federal deficit, and associated exploding national debt. We have significant monetary players overseas, like Japan and China and Middle Eastern nations, holding trillions of dollars worth of U.S. bonds and other paper — and getting nervous about it. We have a hollowed-out North American economy that’s turned into what historian Charles Maier calls an “empire of consumption.”

Then we also have the utter incompetence and hubris of upper-level U.S. politicians and policymakers. They’re collectively so out of touch that they don’t even know that they’re out of touch. We have the parallel incompetence of the Big Media, with their overall “infotainment” approach to presenting vital news to the American people.

Where’s the tragic theme? There’s this sense of denial that anything really bad can possibly happen. It’s the monetary equivalent of a Dec. 6 or Sept. 10 kind of thinking. It’s a failure of imagination at the highest levels.

And whatever does happen, there’s this attitude that the U.S. can add complexity to the system and “spend its way” out of anything. Big government? Sure, and let’s make it bigger. (Hey, let’s have the government take over health care while we’re at it.) Stimulus? Go for it. Bail out Wall Street? Of course — aren’t they too big to fail? Cap and trade, and thus cripple the U.S. energy economy? Yep, we’ll just “conserve” more energy and build lots of windmills. Right?

It’s just spend, spend, spend, spend, spend. Or control, control, control, control, control. And bureaucratize, bureaucratize, bureaucratize, bureaucratize, bureaucratize. Modern governance is all about spending money we don’t have on complexity that we, as a society, cannot afford in any sense of the word. And few of the power brokers at the top seem to think that there’s anything wrong with it. They’ll just pass another law, spend some more money.

The tragic part of this drama is that the high and mighty are setting themselves — and the U.S. economy — up for a terrible fall. Sooner or later, with all the spending and new bureaucracy, we’re going to have an implosion and see a collapse in the level of complexity. Those green “notes” that the Federal Reserve prints — with the nice pictures of dead presidents on them — will not be worth nearly what most people believe.

Neither you nor I can do anything to prevent it. (OK, write to your congressman, for all the good it’ll do. Or go to a town hall meeting, for all the good it’ll do.)

The answer, of course, is to protect yourself and your family, and save what you can. When the mighty tumble, be sure not to be standing there in the crash zone.

Source: My Favorite “Mistake”

The domino effect is straightforward: Higher deficits spark market concerns over future inflation; concerns of inflation contribute to a weaker dollar; and both come together to undermine the greenback’s role as a reliable store of value around the world. Right now, with so much unused capacity in the American economy and so much unemployment – likely to persist for at least another year or two – the more pressing worry is deflation (a general decrease in prices), not inflation. But as the economy eventually recovers, the possibility of inflation will loom, and with forward-looking markets, worries about the future often play out in the present. Anxieties about future inflation can lead to a weaker dollar today.

Of course, a new global currency won’t happen right away. It will take global policy makers months – maybe even years – to wean the world off the greenback. But Stiglitz says its coming.

Like it or not, out of the ashes of this debacle a new and more stable global reserve system is likely to emerge, and for the world as a whole, as well as for the United States, this would be a good thing. It would lead to a more stable worldwide financial system and stronger global economic growth. The current system entails developing countries putting aside hundreds of billions of dollars a year – only weakening global demand and contributing to our economic difficulties. Also, there is something a little unseemly about poor countries lending the US trillions of dollars, now at an interest rate of close to zero.

Long time Notes readers shouldn’t be surprised that our addiction to credit has lead to the demise of the dollar. And if you’ve read James Dale Davidson’s “The Plague of the Black Debt,” you’re already yardsticks ahead of your fellow citizens. If you haven’t, we strongly urge you to see what this debt pile means to your investments over the next decade.

The death of the dollar is nothing new – the US currency has been terminally ill since the beginning of the last century. The value of the buck has collapsed 196% since its peak in 1900. That’s a pretty significant drop in a just century. This from Sean Malone at the Ludwig von Mises Institute (a great Austrian School of economics and libertarian resource):

Money supply from 1946-2009 has been increased 5938% to $8,235,900,000,000. In that time, the US has seen 10 recession, constant military action, massive expansion of government power, an explosion of the welfare state and the complete annihilation of the buying power of the US dollar.

Now try to imagine what your life might be like if every dollar you had bought you 20 times as much stuff… This is the cost of inflation.

Take the Consumer Price Index, a widely used measure of inflation. It tracks inflation in part by comparing a basket of commonly consumed goods over the years.

Governments don’t like inflation. So they simply pull a fast one on Joe Public and swap the goods in the basket as it suits them. This from TradeSystemGuru.com’s Matt Blackman:

In an effort to keep inflation down and accentuate growth, statisticians shamelessly distort and manipulate the data. For example, the Consumer Price Index measures inflation in part by comparing a basket of goods over the years. But what is not publicly understood is that each year, that basket changes. […]Here is just one example of how one of these tools, namely substitution, works. If the price of salmon goes up too much, the Bureau of Labor Statistics substitutes it for a cheaper food item like say hot dogs. The result is that from 2007 to 2008, CPI showed a 4.1% rise in the price of food. But according to the Farm Bureau, that tracks the same basket (without using substitution, weighting or hedonics), food prices actually rose 11.3%!

Employment figures are also fudged. As James Dale Davidson points out in the upcoming issue of Crisis Strategy Alert:

The official unemployment statistic picked up in today’s headlines, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ U-3 measure, does not count everyone who is unemployed and underemployed.But that’s not the only problem with the numbers.

The government also inserts an official fudge factor – which in May amounted to 220,000 fictitious jobs. These so-called “birth/death” statistical adjustments arbitrarily add fluctuating numbers of jobs to the total measured employment. This supposedly accounts for jobs supposedly being created by new businesses that are supposedly too small and young for the government to detect. U-3 is also flawed in that it doesn’t count people ineligible for unemployment benefits. […]

To get a real picture of the current unemployment levels you need to focus on the grossly underreported U-6 data set known as “alternative measures of labor utilization.” The U-6 data set includes everyone counted in U-3, plus “all marginally attached workers” and people who aren’t working full-time but wish they were (i.e., the underemployed). (Marginally employed covers “persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.”)

When you add up U-3 and all the underutilized workers, the official U-6 rate for May 2009 is 16.4%. In other words, the employment picture is twice as bad 14 months after the recent peak as it was in December 1930, 18 months after the peak prior to the Great Depression.

As James says, “If you take care to analyze the data, it’s easy to see that there are not many green shoots growing. In fact, when you put aside the hype and look more carefully, indicators such as employment, industrial production, stock prices and international trade are all tracking their trajectories from the Great Depression… or worse.”

Taking care to analyze the data can clearly mean the difference between a good investment decision and a bad one… the difference between a stock market victim and a successful investor… the difference between a comfortable retirement and a last-minute scramble to cover a pension shortfall.

If you’re interested in discovering the truth behind the government’s lies about the economy and protecting your wealth during the current crisis, you can take a 60-day risk-free test drive of James’s research service.

You will get immediate access to past issues, weekly updates on how to profit in the downturn and the full Crisis Strategy Alert portfolio. If you decide within the first two months of the test drive that James’s investment research and crisis recommendations are not for you, it won’t cost you a dime… guaranteed. Frankly, this is a no-lose offer. Take it or leave it. It’s entirely up to you.

One thing the feds can’t fudge is the amount of tax receipts they take in. As Barron’s recently put it, “nobody pays taxes on phony, phantom jobs or earnings.”

According to Trim Tabs, the decrease in income-tax withholdings since May “indicates wage declines and job losses have accelerated.” This from Barron’s:

[I]ncome-tax withholdings in the past four weeks are down 6.1% from a year ago; in the last two weeks, they’re down an even bigger 8.1% from last year. That marks a sharp deterioration from May, when income-tax withholdings were off “only” 4.8% from a year ago. […]Meanwhile, “other” taxes were down 39.5% year-on-year, down from 33.6% in May. Corporate income taxes were down 35% from a year ago in the latest four weeks after having been down 12.3% year-on-year in May. […]

Not only do plunging tax revenues tighten the fiscal vise on the federal, state and municipal coffers, they provide unambiguous confirmation of the truly dire straits of the economy.

These numbers, of course, are at odds with the surge in the stock market, which had lifted the averages by about a third from those March lows. Now, however, equities appear to be rolling over, which could be nothing more than profit-taking to nail down wins ahead of the end of the second quarter.

But the advance also seems to be losing steam in bourses abroad as well as in commodities, which suggests much of the surge was liquidity-driven, not unlike last summer’s spike in crude oil prices to $147 a barrel. We’ll see.

Traders have grown increasingly fearful in recent weeks that the powerful surge in the three major U.S. stock indices – one of the strongest in history – may not have been justified because of an ongoing economic recovery that’s not as strong as originally believed.

“There’s no question in my mind that the economy is improving,” Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors, told The Associated Press on Friday. “But investors are betting on some sideways consolidation rather than a continuation of a sharp spike in share prices.”

All the major indexes closed the week down for the first time since the week of May 11. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3%, theStandard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index 1.7%.

Stocks returned to the whipsaw trading pattern investors had grown wearily accustomed to in the months before the rally got under way.

Stocks fell early in the week as a handful of weak economic reports – including news that industrial production had fallen for the seventh straight month – contradicted other reports that seemed to depict a gradual improvement in the American economy.

But some modestly upbeat economic reports sent U.S. share prices up a bit on Thursday; one report demonstrated that the overall number of people drawing unemployment benefits fell last week for the first time since the start of January.

But it wasn’t until stocks finished the day mixed on Friday – with financial, retail and tech shares gaining, while energy and utility shares dropped – that the three major indices finished with their first weekly loss since the start of May.

Last week was a loss. And the week before the three key indices each rose less than 1%.

“It’s not going to be a one-way ride,” Keith Walter, portfolio manager of Artio Global Equity Fund, told reporters.

Since periods of powerful market overperformance are usually followed by a period of sharp underperformance, institutional players have been looking for a down week.  Usually, a 40% surge like the one seen in the S&P 500 index takes years to develop, not months.

But here’s the question: Does last week’s market pullback have more to go, or can it still move higher after two consecutive weeks of sideways trading?
The conventional wisdom is calling for a stretch of choppy trading that will last through the summer, a period during which there’s low volume, until July when Corporate America begins announcing second-quarter earnings.

Market Matters

As the Dow finished the week in the “red,” it also turns out that its push into positive territory for the year was relatively short-lived.  Just one trading session beyond the index’s surge into the “black,” traders surveyed the economic landscape, evaluated the new regulatory environment, reconsidered the ballooning deficit (not even including health care) and chose to book some profits.  While the other major indexes remain profitable year-to-date, many investors believe the markets stand at a crossroad as they attempt to determine whether the recent move has been:

• A mere blip on the radar screen, amid a much-longer bear market.
• A much-too-fast run-up for a rebounding economy that that still faces a plethora of challenges.
• The start of a new bull market that simply is taking a week off to digest all the “euphoric” news.

The analysts, TV pundits, and bloggers maintain no shortages of views about the markets’ future direction.  Only time will tell.

As expected, major financial institutions rushed to pay back $68 billion in Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) money and get out from under the strong arm of the government.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), and Morgan Stanley(NYSE: MS) highlighted the list, while Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), and Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC)are among those still seeking Uncle Sam’ approval for every action.
Meanwhile, Standard & Poor’s downgraded 18 related institutions, including a few that paid back the bailout money - BB&T Corp. (NYSE:BBT) and U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) – and warned about the industry’s future

The Obama administration revealed plans for the most significant financial regulatory overhaul since the Great Depression.  The proposal expands the oversight role of the U.S. Federal Reserve, and includes higher capital and liquidity requirements, stricter reviews over hedge funds and certain derivative products, and the creation of a new consumer protection agency.  U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner detailed the plan before the Senate and was met with mixed (but predictable) reactions…Republicans thought it was excessive, while Dems felt it didn’t go far enough.

If both sides dislike it equally, perhaps it’s a good plan?

Volatility returns to the markets as the VIX (Chicago Board Option Exchange Volatility Index) surged past the critical 30 mark early in the week, a sign generally associated with stock-market pessimism.  Bonds continued their ongoing roller-coaster ride as some fixed-income investors remained concerned about the global demand for U.S. debt, while others turned to the asset class as a flight-to-quality from riskier securities.

The worries continued as both China and Japan reportedly cut back their treasury holdings in April, a worrisome development considering the upcoming Treasury auctions will add a record $104 billion of government securities to the Street.

Oil hovered around the $70 a barrel level and gas prices increased for 52 straight days as consumers began to feel the pinch just in time for the summer holiday travel season.  Options expiration from “quadruple-witching Friday” brought additional volatility as each major equity index gave back some ground for the week on less-than-favorable reports from the likes of Best Buy Co. (NYSE: BBY) and FedEx Corp. (NYSE:FDX).

Market/ Index	Year Close (2008)	Qtr Close (03/31/09)	Previous Week (06/12/09)	Current Week (06/19/09)	YTD Change
Dow Jones Industrial	8,776.39	7,608.92	8,799.26	8,539.73	-2.70%
NASDAQ	1,577.03	1,528.59	1,858.80	1,827.47	+15.88%
S&P 500	903.25	797.87	946.21	921.23	+1.99%
Russell 2000	499.45	422.75	526.84	512.72	+2.66%
Global Dow	1526.21	1347.38	1,694.76	1,633.70	+7.04%
Fed Funds	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	0 bps
10 yr Treasury (Yield)	2.24%	2.68%	3.79%	3.79%	+155 bps

Economically Speaking

While U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will be gaining enhanced powers under the federal financial system makeover, he must be wondering whether he will be around to experience them.  Despite the unprecedented challenges he has faced over the past few years, U.S. President Barack Obama has been tightlipped about whether he will reappoint Bernanke for another term when the central bank chairman’s current stint expires in January.

“Ben Bernanke has handled his position extraordinarily well under extraordinary circumstances…but I’m not going to make news on that right now,” President Obama said.

Some Fed watchers believe that President Obama has Lawrence Summers, the former U.S. Treasury secretary and present National Economic Council chairman, in mind for the position.

On the economic front, inflation data highlighted the week’s releases as both producer price index (PPI) and the consumer price index (CPI) for May were reported as below expectations.  While certain naysayers pressed forward on the scary “deflation” argument, other naysayers point to the rapid rise in energy prices as proof that the dreaded “I” word is merely lurking on the horizon.

For now, however, inflation is not considered “Public Enemy No. 1″ and economists will focus on housing, labor, and manufacturing for more signs of economic stability.

Turning to housing, new construction climbed by its largest amount in three months and even building permits jumped in May as prospects for the future look more promising.  Bear in mind, however, homebuilding activity still remains more than 45% below last year’s levels.

Industrial production fell more than 1% in May as automakers Chrysler Group LLC and General Motors Corp. (OTC: GMGMQ) continued shutting down plants and limiting production as they initiated their restructuring plans.  While initial jobless claims actually increased slightly in its most recent weekly release, total insurance claims actually fell for the first time in five months.  Still, the labor market remains the primary concern as the economy begins to show some signs of improvement.

On that note, the leading economic indicators (LEI), an index thought to forecast economic activity for the next three to six months, experienced its best showing since March 2004.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source:  Market Stumble Heightens Worries That Economic Rebound May Not Be That Strong

There are bigger fish being fried. The entire American nation is in the crosshairs and will be severely tested like never before.

Very few people comprehend the scope of the problems that continue to unfold. The Dow is up a couple of thousand points so everything must be normalizing, no?

No! Look deeper.

The US Hits the Treadmill

The core of our problems lies deep in the roots of the overall system.

• The US economic model has been extremely flawed for more than an entire generation. Our “money” holds no intrinsic value. We follow the consumption mantra instead of the production model. The good times come only when credit expands in bubblical proportions (don’t look that one up in Webster’s). Credit contractions, like the historical one we’re now in, threaten to implode the entire edifice. The Fed is the master of the boom and bust cycle and they have really overdone it this time.
• Low interest rates are damaging to the key individuals that can rescue us … savers. Save the savers!
• There are consequences to failed economics. Our central planners are a scant few decades following in the footsteps of the Ruskies. It is definitely not free market capitalism that is crumbling. Ignorance, greed and fraud are simply meeting their inevitable demise.

Results- The patient literally fell off the treadmill.

The Telling Electrocardiogram (ECG)

There are some really weird heart rhythms on this now intensive care patient.

• This decade has been one of depression only disguised by official lies and distortions (altered statistics). A sustained recession is, in fact, a depression. The sustained recession started in 2001, with a brief interlude in 2004 and I’m sticking with that opinion regardless of how few see it. Check out the GDP chart at www.shadowstats.com for yourself. Any analysis is only as good as the documentation used.
• The collateral foundation is crumbling out from under all American banks. Real estate continues to deflate and this directly impacts the viability of banks. Their ability to lend disappears with foreclosed homes and non-performing shopping centers. Home prices were down 14% during the first quarter of this year compared to the first quarter of 2008. At least 30% of US households owe more on their homes than they’re worth. Real estate has not bottomed.
• Joblessness goes hand in hand with real estate failures. The Labor Department just fessed up to a 9% unemployment rate. The rule of thumb is to roughly double the propaganda figures that come out of DC/NY. We’re heading next for 20% unemployment and all but the most gullible know it. More reliable reporting, again, comes out of the Shadow Stats website.
• American debts are way, way past the point of ever being repaid. They will be defaulted on. I won’t bore you with excessive numbers here because eyes tend to glaze over. Our economic leaders are throwing down multiple trillions of dollars in between shots of tequila. Practically none of this funding is aimed at Main Street. Recent “stimulus” spending and desperate promises come to $29 trillion per Bill Buckler of the esteemed Privateer.
• Tax receipts for fiscal 2008-2009 are down 31% for individuals and 58% for corporations. Meanwhile, government is vastly expanding its spending and a collision is inevitable.
• Foreigners are balking at purchasing more American debt and the Fed, in an end game strategy, has stepped into the gap. Don’t try this at home.

Results- There is a dangerous cardiac arrest in progress. One more test to go.

The Dreaded Proctologist

This test is the most revealing one of all. You will need more than a Valium just to review these results. The creatures that have brought us to this fateful moment show no signs of seeing daylight anytime soon.

• Failed entities should be purged from the system. Fraud requires punishment. Instead, incestuous entities like Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, AIG, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and others were and are deemed too well connected to fail. A financial coup d’etat has transpired as Goldman Sachs refugees have overtly grabbed the ring of power. The banking elite continue to clutch their power.
• The shadow banking system that directly caused this American catastrophe continues to bring forth more and more derivatives. The BIS, the bankers’ bank in Switzerland, reports $684 trillion in these hidden, unregulated and dangerous instruments. Other sources report them as high as one quadrillion dollars. There’s a Zimbabwean number if there ever was one. There can be little doubt derivatives are continuing to fail behind the scenes, further compounding all these issues.
• The printing press is also found with this scoping exam and it’s obviously turned to malignant mode. How do you cure a problem caused by extreme amounts of credit and debt with unfathomable amounts of the same?
• No observed green objects resembled “shoots”.

Results- A massive surgical resection is mandated. Today.

Test Results and Prognosis

Grievously, this patient has abused its heart and lost its soul. It is unrecognizable from its original Constitutional form and very unlikely to revert back to it. It exhibits no free markets, no honest money and few brave and rational leaders. Short of a miracle, you’re looking at a terminal case.

The banks passed their stress test but you dare not rest easy. Al Capone would have given himself a glowing report card if given the opportunity. The times remain extremely precarious. Protect yourself by staying away from the Kool-Aid and heading for the precious metals.

Source: A National “Stress Test”

]]> http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/a-national-%e2%80%9cstress-test%e2%80%9d/17040/feed 0 http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/recession-resistant-restaurant-stocks/13337 http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/recession-resistant-restaurant-stocks/13337#comments Wed, 11 Feb 2009 15:49:21 +0000 Greg Gunner Guenthner http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=13337 Greg Gunther of the Penny Sleuth points out that during tough times like these, cutting back on the household grocery budget is a sure way to save money. Here are two fast food stocks that attract the cash strapped customer and the small-cap investor.

The engine of the great American Economy is, and always will be, the consumer. You and your neighbors and all of your buying power will determine how well the market performs. Right now, it seems as though everyone is hurting — so it’s the right time to capitalize on the pain with solid small-cap plays.

It all begins with the struggling consumer: your neighbor. His home is worth 20% less than it was just a couple of years…

Obama previously estimated that his estimated $800 billion strategy for winching the American economy out of its year-long recession could save or create 3 million jobs, but the new study has found that the actual number would range between 3 million and 4 million.

The analysis was submitted by Christina Romer, head of Obama’s council of economic advisors, and Jared Bernstein, the economic advisor to Vice President-elect Joe Biden. The analysis directly follows an official government report showing that U.S. employers slashed more than half a million jobs in December, pushing the unemployment rate to 7.2% and bringing the number of jobs lost last year to 2.6 million — the worst showing since 1945.

“The jobs we create will be in businesses large and small across a wide range of industries,” President-elect Obama said on his weekly radio and Internet address. “And they’ll be the kind of jobs that don’t just put people to work in the short term, but position our economy to lead the world in the long term.”

With President-elect Obama’s inauguration set for Jan. 20 – a week from tomorrow (Tuesday), expect around-the-clock discussions about the stimulus package (and potential tax cuts), as the political bickering begins in earnest.

Because of the plan’s high cost and proposed tax cuts, Obama has faced opposition from Republican and Democratic lawmakers. The incoming president’s top aides visited Capitol Hill on Friday to attempt to allay lawmaker concerns. The plan would combine the tax cuts, aid to states and public-works projects.

Obama said his plan would create nearly 500,000 jobs by investing in clean energy, by committing to double the production of alternative energy in the next three years and by improving the energy efficiency of 2 million American homes. However, he also warned yet again that the economy is likely to get worse before it gets better and that any recovery will not happen overnight.

“These made-in-America jobs building solar panels and wind turbines, developing fuel-efficient cars and new energy technologies pay well, and they can’t be outsourced,” Obama said during his address.

In excerpts from an interview with ABC News to be broadcast on Sunday, President-elect Obama said Americans will have to scale back and make personal sacrifices.

“I want to be realistic here, not everything that we talked about during the campaign are we going to be able to do on the pace we had hoped,” he said in a taped interview with ABC’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos.”

“Everybody’s going to have (to) give,” Obama said.

Obama also said the proposal:

• Showed the recovery plan would put nearly 400,000 people back to work repairing infrastructure like crumbling roads, bridges and schools and adding miles of broadband network cable.

• Would include bipartisan extensions of unemployment insurance and health care coverage, a $1,000 tax cut for 95% of working families, and assistance to help states avoid deep-and-painful budget cuts in essential services like police, fire, education and health care.

“We won’t just create jobs, we’ll also provide help for those who’ve lost theirs, and for states and families who’ve been hardest-hit by this recession,” Obama said.

Investors will be tested in the coming weeks as earnings season approaches and corporations share their “gloom and doom” of the past quarter – Intel Corp. (INTC) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) offered investors a sneak peak.

The monthly inflation gauges should depict additional energy price contraction, which actually has served as an unofficial stimulus package at the pumps (though no one ever talks about it).  Traders who thought oil had set a floor around $40 a barrel may have to reassess their views. Cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Middle East turmoil, Russian/Ukrainian disputes … nothing seems capable of halting the slide in oil prices.

Instead, the eternal pessimists focus on deflation, fearful that consumers will hold off on all purchases (regardless of pricing) and the economic downturn will continue well into 2009.  On that note, the retail sales data should offer few positive surprises.  At least, that new “chief performance officer” represents job expansion. But as Money Morning’s investing gurus have demonstrated, it is inflation – not deflation – that will be the big worry.

Market Matters

Six days and counting. Just how will equities perform in 2009? According to the January Effect: As the first five days of January go, so goes the market for the year. Often investors sell stocks late in the year to lock in capital losses. When they reinvest during the first five days (stocks rise), they believe the markets will increase and look to take advantage of the appreciation. When stocks fall during that week, investors are less optimistic about the future of the markets. In 2008, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor’s 500 Indexes dropped by more than 5% during the initial five trading sessions, a highly negative (but accurate) precursor of the year to come.  However, in 2009, the predictor turned out to be less clear; the Dow dropped by 0.39%, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.72% (though both were lower after Day Six).  The market uncertainty continues into the New Year.

In corporate news, published reports state that Citigroup Inc. (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are looking to combine their brokerage units. Morgan Stanley could pay $2 billion to $3 billion or more for a controlling stake in Citigroup’s Smith Barney retail brokerage business.

Terms of the deal are still being worked out, sources familiar with the matter said, adding that Citi may put its toxic assets into a separate unit as a preliminary step toward shedding them.

Under the current plan, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley would set up a joint venture for their combined retail brokerage businesses. Morgan Stanley would own 51%, control the venture, and would expect to buy Citigroup’s remaining share over the next five years.

The cash would be a big boon for Citigroup, which is under tremendous pressure from the U.S. government to shore up its balance sheet after taking $45 billion of government capital in October and November, the sources told Reuters.
The bank is considering multiple options in addition to the Morgan Stanley deal.
“Everything is on the table,” the sources said.

Dismantling the rest of Citigroup would be difficult, since not many are in the market for big-ticket financial assets now. A few smaller businesses or groups may be sold off – Citi has internally discussed the possibility of selling its Banamex Mexican banking unit, for example. But splitting up Citigroup completely is unlikely.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) joined the ranks of depressed retailers by missing December sales projections and then cut its outlook for the quarter.  Toyota Motor Corp. (ADR: TM), General Motors Corp. (GM) and Ford Motor Co. (F) reported sales declines of 30% (or more) last month, while Volkswagen AG (ADR: VLKAY) and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG announced plans for greater expansion in the U.S. market to take advantage of their struggling domestic competitors.

Alcoa Inc. (AA) added to the gloomy unemployment picture by reducing its work force by 15,000 jobs. Intel again warned that the economy is hindering its operations as consumers and businesses shy away from technology purchases.  Indian high-tech giant Satyam Computer (ADR: SAY) pulled a “Madoff” by informing investors that its chairman had been falsifying financial results and exaggerated his $1 billion cash balance.  Even Madoff himself was appalled (as he attempted to mail $173 million of checks to loyal investors and send $1 million in jewelry to friends and family).

Oil surged above $48 a barrel early in the week as war escalated in Gaza; however, a mid-week report depicted higher-than-expected inventories and prices plunged 12% in a day – and ultimately dropped below $40 for the first time in 2009.

Stocks gave back those gains from the first trading day as investors (over)analyzed the retail numbers and other data. On the fixed income front, bond investors appear more willing to accept risk as $750 million flowed into high-yield (junk) funds during the last two weeks of 2008.

Economically Speaking…

So what’s $1.2 trillion between friends? After entering office with a budget surplus, the fiscally conservative President Bush will leave his successor with a $1.186 trillion deficit (that is sure to rise with the afore-mentioned Obama stimulus package). For his part, Obama promises to “put government on the side of taxpayers and everyday Americans” as he created a new position – chief performance officer – to eliminate waste wherever it exists in the federal budget.

Good luck with that, Mr. President (elect).

While the economic calendar was quite hectic, economists and investors alike eagerly awaited (rather, reluctantly feared) the late-week unemployment and non-farm payroll releases. In December, the jobless rate surged to 7.2%, its highest level in 16 years, as another 524,000 jobs were eliminated from the economy.

For all of 2009, 2.6 million jobs were lost, the biggest contraction since 1945, though the labor force has tripled since that time. While new claims for unemployment benefits has shown some improvement over the past few weeks, continuing claims rose to a 26-year high, revealing that laid-off workers are having significant difficulties finding new jobs during the recession.

Factory orders fell for the fourth straight month as the weak (and getting weaker) auto sector continued to restrict any progress in manufacturing.

Consumers borrowing declined by a record amount in November, as individuals remained afraid to make any purchases or add to debt positions during these dire times.  Unfortunately, the surest way to work our way out of this recession is for those individuals and businesses (who are able) to pour money back into the economy and that is simply not happening. The minutes from the December U.S. Federal Reserve meeting were released and policymakers appear highly pessimistic about growth prospects for 2009 and implied that rates could remain just above 0% for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England cuts its rate to the lowest level in its 315-year history.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: $800 Billion Obama Stimulus Will be Topic of Debate Through Inauguration

Obama’s stimulus proposal is filled with tax credits, accounting modifications and continuations of current tax laws set to expire. It has little in the way of direct financial stimulus to any industry, especially the healthcare industry.

The President-elect’s goal is to create jobs and reduce taxes in an effort to quickly revise consumer spending. In the short-term, his plan will boost infrastructure-related profits and create revenues for the nation’s “green” industries. But the money will not immediately flow through all sectors of the economy.

In fact, one of Obama’s favorite stomping points during his seemingly endless campaign was healthcare industry reform. It is widely know the Democrat wants to work towards a nationalized healthcare system.

Promises? What promises?

But now that revitalizing (or is it reviving?) the American economy has become top priority, the healthcare industry will be put on the back burner. The nation simply cannot afford the shockwaves of manipulating the financially vibrant sector. Unfortunately, many investors have not realized this point.

Take a look at Allscripts-Misys Healthcare Solutions (NASDAQ:MDRX), for instance. Profit-hungry investors are jumping all over this stock in hopes of getting in on Obama’s stimulus action. Unfortunately, they are making the plunge at a time when the stock is extremely vulnerable.

Later today, Allscripts will release its second-quarter earnings report. After all the attention this company has gotten over the last two months, even an iota of unexpected bad news could send shares on a downhill journey.

For investors willing to take on some speculation, this is a great opportunity to short sell shares of the stock. They could see strong profits as share price drops on any bad news.

If you are not willing to take on any unnecessary risk right now (I cannot blame you), keep a close eye on the stock’s action and be prepared to buy on any strong dips. Allscripts is a strong company with good products, but with its current share price of close to $9, is overvalued. Look to pick up shares in the $6 range.

Obama may be creating profit potential, but it is certainly not working out how he intends it to.

Source: Want something to short? Check out this healthcare player