I can’t say I blame them. After all, the company did make a foolish foray into the real estate lending business. And it did so at precisely the wrong time – the top of the market. In turn, like many banks, it got sacked as loan losses mounted.

At that point, forget a takeover. Bankruptcy appeared more imminent. And the stock quickly reflected this widely held belief, plunging by 95% from its 2007 high to trade below $1.

Unsurprisingly, many investors sprinted away from the company. But here’s what most of them don’t understand: Beneath the muck of E*Trade’s real estate operations, it possesses a valuable asset – its brokerage business…

For example, even during aterrible year for stocks in 2008, E*Trade (NASDAQ:ETFC) still managed to grow its account base by 6% and added $6.4 billion in customer assets.

It wasn’t a fluke either. E*Trade has continued to grow its brokerage business in 2009.

CEO, Donald Layton, sums it up: “Our online brokerage business is thriving… volumes are up versus last quarter, our average commission per trade is higher, and interest spreads are much improved.”

If it weren’t for the company’s real estate operations, shares would be soaring based on such comments. But therein lies the opportunity.

A Risk Worth Taking for E*Trade’s Rivals

With real estate operations weighing down its share price, suitors like TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD) and Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW) can scoop up E*Trade’s most valuable asset at a steep discount. Both companies certainly possess the stability and financial resources to pull off a deal.

So what’s the holdup? Nothing… anymore.

I’m convinced that the only thing holding up a takeover is the uncertainty surrounding E*Trade’s real-estate loan portfolio. But that obstacle is quickly disappearing.

On Monday, E*Trade revealed that delinquencies continue to drop. In fact, over the past two months, delinquencies for its home-equity portfolio (its largest exposure) fell by another 7%, having fallen by 10% in the prior period.

Meanwhile, overall delinquencies remained flat, clearly indicating that E*Trade’s real-estate portfolio is stabilizing.

When we factor in all the capital the company raised to insulate itself from further losses, the risk to potential suitors appears manageable. And if suitors don’t act quickly, they’ll miss out on the opportunity to buy E*Trade’s brokerage assets at a discount. Shares have already tacked on 11% this week.

Here’s why I’m believe the situation is even more urgent for us…

Why You Should Buy E*Trade Today

A few weeks ago, E*Trade’s largest shareholder, Citadel Investment Group, scrapped plans to start unwinding its position. The move suggests a deal is in the works. Why else would the firm have such a sudden change of heart?

The rumor mill continues to heat up about the possibility of deal. And a strong uptick in call options trading adds credibility to the rumors. In fact, a Yale University study confirms that heavy spikes in options trading precede takeover announcements.

Most compelling of all, TD Ameritrade CEO, Fredric J. Tomczyk, said on Monday that he expects more consolidation to come in the industry.

Since his company is one of the most obvious buyers, he could be foreshadowing a deal. And at such an attractive price, E*Trade represents a risk worth taking for him… and us.

Bottom line: With the real estate risks subsiding, a takeover offer could come any day now for E*Trade. And if you don’t buy shares today, you might not get another chance.

Good investing,

Louis Basenese

Source: E*Trade (Nasdaq: ETFC): Why You Should Buy This Stock Before It’s Too Late

In fact, some stock market mavens are even starting to bandy about the “E” word – exuberance – and say it’s time to adopt a highly defensive position, or to even take some money off the table.

“Awhile back, I said that fair value on the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 7,800 – and that was if the economy was operating efficiently,” said Money Morning Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson, a former international investment banker who now operates the Permanent Wealth Investor trading service – and who was recently cited by Slate magazine for having called the stock-market bottom. “But the economy isn’t operating efficiently. We’re rolling up huge deficits, and are rolling out huge stimulus packages. Those will both be highly inflationary. I’d say that – right now – fair value on the Dow was about 6,500 to 7,000, though it could easily bottom out at around 5,500.”

The closely watched Dow zoomed 214 points, or 2.6%, on Monday to close at 8,426, although it dropped modest 16.09 points to close at 8,410.65 yesterday (Tuesday).

U.S. stock prices have been on a two-month roll. On Monday, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 29 points, or 3.4%, to close at 907, a four-month high. That broad index, used by investing professionals to benchmark the market, opened the year at 903.25. It closed yesterday at 903.8, meaning it’s actually in positive territory for the year.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 44 points, or 2.6% Monday, to close at 1,763. Even with yesterday’s 0.54% decline, the Nasdaq is up 11.0% for the year.

It’s not just the fact that the market has bounced back that has Hutchinson and some other investors concerned – it’s the forcefulness with which stock prices have escalated. After closing at a 12-year low on March 9, the S&P 500 index has rallied about 34%.

Investors have become increasingly optimistic that the U.S. government finally has a handle on the credit crunch and the financial crisis that’s grown out of that nightmare of bad debt and parsimonious lending. There’s a belief that the U.S. housing crisis has reached bottom. Even Money Morning’s Hutchinson says that the rate of decline in the U.S. economy has almost certainly slowed substantially, meaning a bottom may not be far away.

But a bottoming out in the economy doesn’t necessarily mean the U.S. economy’s many problems are at an end, Hutchinson says. With all the stimulus money flowing through the economy, inflation is certain to be a problem, meaning interest rates have to increase, Hutchinson says.

For instance, during the 1990s, inflation averaged 2.9% and the 10-year Treasury bond averaged 6.67%. The gross domestic product (GDP) deflator inflation index was at 2.9% for the first quarter of this year, and yet the 10-yearTreasury was trading at 3.15%, Hutchinson says. That means interest rates have to increase – a lot, a process that’s certain to blunt an economic recovery, he believes.

And if that happens, U.S. stock prices – ahead of themselves already – will drop back, as well.

It was back in mid-October when Hutchinson said the fair-value level of the Dow was 7,800. To drop back to that fair-weather/fair-value target of 7,800 from its current level, the 30-stock, blue-chip index would need to fall 7.0%

That’s more than just a modest decline, and would clearly be painful in its own right. But the Dow would have to drop an alarming 17% to 23% to reach Hutchinson’s foul-weather/fair-value range of 6,500 to 7,000, and a downright sickening 35% to hit his possible market bottom of 5,500.

And Hutchinson isn’t the only investment expert preaching caution.

Take Pacific Investment Management Company LLC’s (PIMCO) fixed-income guru Bill Gross, who says investors are far too optimistic about the U.S. economy’s near-term prospects.

“Do not be deceived by the euphoric sightings of ‘green shoots’ and the claims for new bull markets in a multitude of asset classes,” Gross wrote in PIMCO’s May outlook. “Stable and secure income is still the order of the day.”

In theory, the stock market is forward-looking, meaning stock prices reflect a future – three to six months down the road – that is obviously unknown to investors. The hard-charging rally of U.S. stocks in recent weeks has prompted an even stronger belief that the economic rebound is at hand, and that the recession that started in December 2007 may soon be over – if it isn’t already.

That doesn’t mean there are no profit opportunities available. Plenty remain. But it does mean investors need to invest cautiously, and may need to make some profit plays more suitable for bear-market environment – just in case.

Some “smart-money” strategists say that it’s time to take money off of the table, MarketWatch.com reported. In a recent research call, for instance, Raymond James Financial Inc. (NYSE: RJF) market strategist Jeffrey Saut says he has put his trading account all into cash, and has taken defensive positions (typically those that are designed to rise in price if the market falls) in case of a correction in stock prices.

“We have made a lot of money over the last eight weeks and continue to think the trick from here will be to keep that money,” Saut wrote in that research call.

Converting your profits to cash is one way to play this uncertain stretch, Hutchinson says. But there are several other strategies that will position you to continue generating profits, while also hedging against potential market unpleasantness. In his Permanent Wealth Investor trading service, Hutchinson says to:

• Buy high-yielding stocks for both income and capital gains.
• Buy gold both to profit, and to hedge against the inflation that’s certain to arise from the big government spending programs.
• And buy so-called “inverse funds,” to hedge and to profit. One such suggestion is the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Fund (NYSE: TBT), which seeks investment results that correspond to twice the inverse daily performance of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Index.

A new bear market isn’t a foregone conclusion, either. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke says the U.S. recession could end this year, and says that economic activity could pick up substantially in the year’s second half.

And there’s also an interesting wildcard at play. It’s a bit of anecdotal evidence that has proven bothersome to some investing professionals because it doesn’t fit with the way market rallies typically play out.

In most stock-market rallies, the initial catalyst comes from the big institutional players, who ignite the upturn. As the media drumbeat of the rally grows stronger and louder, retail investors start to join in – a little at a time at first, but then in growing intensity. By the time the main group of retail investors make the move, however, it’s usually almost time for the institutional players to cash out, since the trend they invested to profit from is typically almost played out, MarketWatch reported.

That’s pretty much what happened during the dot-com bubble, and is why individual investors took it on the chin.

This time around, however, it’s been different.

But this time around, anecdotal evidence – such as trading data from online brokers E *Trade Financial Corp. (Nasdaq: ETFC) trade and TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. (Nasdaq: AMTD) seems to suggest that it’s been the retail-investing crowd that’s driven this rally from the very beginning, while institutions have stayed on sidelines, cash in hand, Barry Ritholtz, chief executive officer and the director of equity research at Fusion IQ, told MarketWatch.

“The ‘dumb’ retail money is leading the gains,” Ritholtz said.

That could end up being good news for the stock market: Institutional investors, afraid to have missed the rally, might step in more forcefully, fueling a new-and-longer leg of the current bull market for U.S. stock prices.

If it turns out that this is just a “bear-market rally,” however, bad economic news will halt the rally and cause investors to punt.

The bottom line: Over the long haul, economic reality will guide stock prices, Ritholtz says.

“In this type of environment, the market is guilty until proven innocent,” he said. “We have to assume this remains a bear market until we see a more normalized economy, a recovery in some employment measures, and real estate to actually start improving – not just to stop free falling.”

Source: Is the Stock Market Rally For Real?

And that’s precisely the wrong decision to make at the wrong time. No matter how poorly the financial markets are performing, saving for retirement has to remain a top priority.

“It’s not a time for people to stop contributing,” Diane Young, director of retirement and goal planning at TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. (AMTD), the Omaha, Neb.-based brokerage firm that conducted the retirement study, said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “Because time is money, it’s important to stay on track.”

According to the Ameritrade study – released yesterday (Tuesday) – 63% of Americans have completely stopped contributing to their retirement plan. Financial strain due to the economic downturn was cited by half (50%) of those who say they have reduced or stopped contributing to their retirement plan. Unemployment (32%) and healthcare costs (25%) also were cited as key factors affecting their ability to contribute to their retirement plan.

Only 54% of survey respondents, which included senior citizens, indicated they had a retirement account. Of that number, one out of three had less than $50,000 in investment assets.

But slacking off on retirement savings now is only going to hurt you more down the road.
Chipping Away at Retirement Assets

Giving up the power of compounding can be the most costly mistake an investor can make when it comes to investing for retirement, but unfortunately that’s just what many are doing in light of the dismal market performance.

And those dismal returns aren’t the only factor hammering the bottom line of retirement accounts these days. Retirees and those close to retirement are feeling as if they are under attack from all sides due to the factors that threaten a comfortable retirement.

The main source of income for many retirees continues to be the Social Security Administration. But the Social Security program has been at risk for years as life expectancies continue to grow and the number of retirees advances in kind. The program will only come under more pressure as the baby boomer generation edges closer to retirement.

“Social Security’s current annual surpluses of tax income over expenditures will begin to decline in 2011 and then turn into rapidly growing deficits as the baby boom generation retires,” the most recent trustees’ report said.

Many retirees depend on dividend payments from investments to supplement income. But with a growing number of companies reducing or eliminating dividend payments in the face of poor earnings or a changing business landscape, that income stream is dwindling.

Even companies with long track records of dividend growth, such as General Electric Co. (GE) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC), have been paring back.

Given the current market conditions, selling a stock that has eliminated its dividend is no longer as likely to make up for that lost income.

“If I’m down 25% in dividend income, but the stock is down 35%, if I sell the stock, can I afford to lose another 10 to 15% by selling?” Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst with Standard & Poor’s, told The Associated Press. “Younger investors can wait the market out and sell the stock when it bounces back. But older people are really stuck in a bad spot.”

Companies with poor earnings are also cutting back on company contributions to 401(k) plans, which can downright wreck your expected retirement calculations. General Motors Corp. (GM) recently announced that it would discontinue company-matching contributions for non-union employees until economic conditions improve.

According to a recent survey by Watson Wyatt Worldwide Inc. (WW), 2% of companies surveyed have already decreased 401(k) contributions, while another 4% are planning to do so in the 2009.

Retirees with defined benefit or pension plans aren’t in much better shape.

According to Adrian Hartshorn, an actuary with Mercer, a business consultant subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc. (MMC), the pension account assets of companies in the S&P 1500 are shrinking. At the end of 2007, the companies Hartshorn tracks had a collective surplus of $60 billion. But stock-market losses have transformed that $60 billion surplus into a $35 billion deficit.
Protecting Your Retirement

If you find yourself the victim of a cutback in company contributions or a loss of dividend income, make sure you take the initiative to safeguard your retirement.

“Redo your financial planning and figure out if you need to save more now,” Robyn Credico, Watson Wyatt’s national director of defined-benefit consulting, told The Washington Post.

Here are some more steps you can take to help protect your retirement account, even during difficult market conditions:

* Be Aware: AARP’s website has a number of interactive financial calculators that will help you estimate everything from how much you need to save for retirement to how much income you can expect during retirement. While you want a long and healthy life, you don’t want to outlive your money, so be sure you don’t underestimate your time horizon.

* Be Proactive: If you think you’re going to come up short when it’s time for retirement, reconsider your options. Some workers are delaying retirement to give their assets more time to grow. Other retirees are supplementing their income with part-time work or curbing expenses by cutting back on unnecessary expenditures.

* Be Thrifty: Save as much as you can. Make sure you’re getting the most out of your company 401(k) plan by maximizing the company match. And try to save the maximum annual limit for your company’s 410(k) plan or your traditional IRA. Contributions to your retirement account often reduce your taxable income, so it might not be as much of a sacrifice as you think. Indeed, some investors do double damage to themselves by ending their retirement plan contributions, but forgetting to also adjust their tax withholding. That can make for an ugly surprise at tax time – either with a smaller-than-expected tax refund or a bigger-than-expected tax bill.

* Be Investment Savvy: Align your retirement investments with your time horizon and risk tolerance. Generally, younger investors can tolerate more risk, while those closer to retirement need to choose more stable options. Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald recently recommended American Century Capital Preservation Fund (CPFXX) as a “safety-first” investment choice for investors close to retirement. And don’t be overly dependent on dividend income or a company pension fund, both of which could be affected by overall poor market conditions or weak company earnings.

Source: Four Ways to Protect Your Retirement From the Ongoing Financial Crisis

• Nokia Corp.’s (NOK) first-quarter earnings missed analysts’ estimates, causing the company’s stock to nosedive 13.98% to close at $28.98 in trading yesterday (Thursday). Net income for the world’s biggest maker of mobile phones rose 25% to $1.95 billion and sales increased 28%. About half of Nokia’s revenue is in dollars or closely linked currencies, Bloomberg reported.

• Nakheel PJSC, the state-own developer planning “The World” archipelago in Dubai, said its 2007 profit more than quadrupled. “We can only start recording earnings from a project after we’ve got 40% the way through construction,” Nakheel’s Chief Financial Officer Kar Tung Quek, told Bloomberg. Translation: “The World” is going to be a gold mine.

• Google Inc. (GOOG), owner of the most popular search engine, reported a 30% increase in first-quarter profit after international expansion countered a slowdown in U.S. advertising spending. Net income jumped to $1.31 billion from $1 billion a year earlier, the company said today in a statement.

• Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) said yesterday (Thursday) that profit fell 19% in the first quarter, as higher credit costs outweighed an increase in revenue, the Associated Press reported. The company reported earnings of $548.5 million, or $1.47 per share, for the January-March period, and $3.87 billion in revenue.

• Online brokerage TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. (AMTD) said yesterday (Thursday) that second-quarter profit jumped 32% on strong trading activity and growth in its asset-based revenue, the Associated Press reported. The company earned $186.7 million in the quarter that ended March 31, up from $141.1 million a year ago.

• Societe Generale SA (OTC: SCGLY), the French bank still reeling from a multi-billion dollar rogue trader scandal, announced yesterday (Thursday) that its Chief Executive, Daniel Bouton, would step down, but remains on as non-executive chairman. Frédéric Oudea, the chief financial officer, will succeed Bouton, The New York Times reported.

• Avant Immunotherapeutics Inc. (AVAN) inked a deal with Pfizer Inc. (PFE) valued at $50 million to develop a potential brain cancer treatment, MSN Money reported. Avant has the potential to earn an additional $390 million if it meets certain development and commercialization milestones. Avant shares soared 16% with a $1.67 gain to close at $11.72 yesterday (Thursday).

• Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) profit fell 63% in the first quarter, but the carrier was still able to show a profit of $34 million for a quarter where other major airlines are posting losses due to record-high fuel costs. Southwest shares gained 11 cents, a 0.88% increase, to close at $12.61.