The obvious answer is that they’re four of the most successful technology companies on the planet.

But they’re also heavily involved in the modernization plans for America’s “Smart Grid” – a topic I introduced in a previous column.

Make no mistake, with a decade-long project as monumental as modernizing the country’s “Smart Grid,” the devil is truly in the details. And the Commerce Department released the finer details of the initiative last week.

Until now, one of the big problems with the “Smart Grid” was the lack of set standards. Without them, each power company would be free to do as it pleases, resulting in a hodge-podge of small grids that, in all likelihood, wouldn’t work together.

To put this in perspective, just imagine how well the Internet would work if there weren’t hundreds (or perhaps even thousands) of standards in place so that everything works seamlessly.

So the National Institute of Standards (NIST) prepared the detailed standards that the Commerce Department wants the power industry to use as they build intelligence into the electrical power grid.

Job #1: Setting Up an American “Smart Grid” Standard

The standards released last week are the result of NIST’s review of proposed measures it sent out to companies like Cisco, IBM, AT&T and Intel, plus hundreds of others, seeking industry comments.

This plan basically details the integration and connection of smart meters, plus data sharing on energy usage among utilities and cyber security standards.

With regard to the latter, the big four firms lobbied vigorously for certain data and communications standards. This is because they want to integrate the essential “hooks” into their product lines as soon as possible.

And the NIST standards require internet-protocol (IP) technology in any system connected to the “Smart Grid.” The idea here is that the existing Internet could be used as the information highway for “Smart Grid” data communications and also for control purposes.

That’s good news for Cisco, in particular. It’s already a leader in IP technology, having integrated it into the “Smart Grid” systems that it currently sells.

But this brings up a potentially big problem…

Smart Meters By Name… But Not By Nature

If “Smart Grid” communication is based on IP technology, how vulnerable is it to hacking?

In order to attack the hardware, you first need to gain access to it to determine the kind of programming required to hack it. Smart hackers could simply walk up to a house where no one is home and steal one using a pair of pliers.

Once the hacker has access to the smart meter’s programming and special software codes, he can then begin communicating with all the meters made by that same manufacturer. As utilities continue their rollout of smart meters, those numbers will be in the millions.

As Mike Davis, a senior security consultant at IOActive, says, current smart meters are “probably not mature enough” and can easily be hacked.

Davis has tested a number of currently available meters (he hasn’t publicly revealed which ones) and identified vulnerabilities that could allow an experienced hacker to shut off large numbers of meters all at once from anywhere in the world.

Imagine a hacker issuing a command to several hundred thousand meters, telling them to simultaneously turn off all at once… and then immediately back on. The resulting surge would blow just about every breaker in the utilities’ grid, taking hours if not days to restore. And the next day, they could do it all over again.

Clearly, this is a serious problem for the utilities and meter makers to address. So what’s being done about it?

These Four Tech Titans Are Poised to Cash In

The good news is that with standards now in place, the Obama administration is ready to start issuing checks – perhaps as early as November. And those checks are worth a total $4.5 billion – money that the government earmarked for the “Smart Grid” project back in January.

And the beneficiaries of this windfall? Cisco, IBM, AT&T, Intel and others.

This just goes to show that it’s not just the obvious candidates that stand to profit from the electrical “Smart Grid” plans (utilities, etc). These great tech giants are ready and waiting to deliver crucial services, too.

Good investing,

David Fessler

Source: Four Companies Set to Profit from a Federal Cash Injection

For its second quarter ended August 29, RIM reported net income of $475.6 million, or 83 cents per share on revenue of $3.53 billion. That compares to a net income of $643.0 million, or $1.12 per share on revenue of $3.42 billion in the same quarter a year ago.

Analysts expected RIMM to earn $1 per share on revenue of $3.62 billion, according to Briefing.com.

In June, RIM held a commanding market share lead over Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone – it’s closest competitor in the United States – with a 55% share of the smartphone market versus Apple’s 20%.

Approximately 3.8 million net new BlackBerry subscriber accounts were added in the quarter, bringing the total account base to 32 million, RIM said. AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), said it activated more than 2.4 million iPhone accounts, but that number is limited to the United States, where AT&T is the exclusive carrier of the smartphone.

Roughly 8.3 million BlackBerry smartphones where shipped in the quarter, versus 5.2 million iPhones in Apple’s last reported quarter, which ended June 27.

RIM shares were trading at $73.55 in after hours trading this evening, down 11.45%.

Source: Research in Motion Shares Nosedive After Missed Sales, Earnings

Investors who realize this fact early could cash in on a brand new tech boom that could produce a new generation of high-tech millionaires not seen since the 1990s.

Comcast, Verizon and other government-protected duopolies won’t be around for your grandchildren to enjoy — at least not in their current forms. You see, companies like these are selling outdated services. And they’re more than reluctant to change their business models.

First, consider the home telephone. This beast is becoming scarcer by the day. In fact, mobile phone-only households are becoming the norm. Yet despite huge increases in wireless sales by traditional telecoms, it’s the wireline segment that keeps these blue chips in the black. More than half of Verizon and (NYSE:T) AT&T’s revenue comes directly from wireline sales.

For the old-school telecom giants, it’s all about infrastructure. They want to milk the cable and phone lines for all they’re worth. After all, it took decades — and millions upon millions of dollars—to create these vast systems that pump TV and telephone service into our homes.

But the communications landscape has changed. We don’t need separate wires to connect our homes to world. Now, it all comes back to bandwidth.

The technology is ready. Wireless dominates the landscape, and the old-fashioned telecoms and cable providers can only desperately hang on to their antiquated services. Even the government—which normally favors any out-of-date and/or irrational business model — is coming around.

We’ve said before that the Federal Communication Commission’s stranglehold on our nation’s airwaves is not only hopelessly out of date — it’s downright counterproductive to the agency’s goals.

However, the FCC is slowly stumbling toward opening up the airwaves once and for all.

Earlier this year, the president dedicated billions of dollars toward rural broadband development in the economic stimulus package. There’s also a mandate that requires the FCC to create a national plan to bring broadband to everyone in the country.

The FCC has also approved proposals to use white space devices to provide broadband access. These devices would utilize analogue television frequencies recently freed up during the digital television conversion.

Of course, telecom giants aren’t going down without a fight. The National Association of Broadcasters has already filed suit in federal court regarding the white space decision, claiming it could interfere with television signals.

It’s a desperate move to save its empire. But in the end, it won’t work. Technology will win, and media convergence will open the door to new data service packages for customers that will provide phone, television, gaming and internet service through lightening-fast, reliable wireless connections.

It will be the beginning of a new tech boom. Companies such as Limelight Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: LLNW), a content delivery network (CDN) provider provides a variety of services, including live Internet video feeds for major events such as the U.S. Open, Oprah’s book tour and the Beijing Olympics, will thrive.  In fact, Limelight’s lucrative contracts with heavy hitters like MSNBC have helped the company grow its revenue more than 500% over the past three years.

More small companies like Limelight will surely emerge in the near future, providing ample opportunities for early investors to cash in on a new age of content convergence.

Best,
Greg Guenthner

Source: How the Death of Big Telecom Will Reignite the Tech Boom

Below is a breakdown of S&P 500 yields by sectors:

As you can see, the biggest loser on the list is financials, which shouldn’t be a surprise. The segment’s dividend yield fell 300 basis points (right-hand column) from last year to now.

The sector that pays the most is doing so under the radar: telecommunication services. This is a favorite of ours. That 14 basis point increase is primarily due to AT&T (NYSE:T) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ) — both paying out around 6%.

These dividends aren’t nearly as safe as we’d like, though. Instead of gunning for the U.S. telecom industry, we like to play that game in emerging markets. We already have a Pacific Rim telecom in the Lifetime Income Report portfolio, and we’ll be adding another this week. Even after that, we’ll continue to keep our eyes peeled and noses to the ground in case something else pops up in that industry.

Going back to that table, you can see the next two best-paying sectors are utilities and consumer staples. Our portfolio is already loaded with these, and we’ll continue looking in these directions as well.

Source: Best Sectors for Income Seekers

Speaking of open interest numbers, gold o.i. on Thursday fell 3,216 contracts to 391,144…on absolutely monstrous volume of 174,662 contracts. Silver’s decline was much more modest…only 93 contracts to 96,309…on total volume of 18,664 contracts.

The Commitment of Traders report issued yesterday, was as expected. In silver, the bullion banks decreased their net short position by 1,522 contracts. This doesn’t seem like a very big number, but it’s impressive because o.i. fell in the face of a silver price that rose quite a bit during the reporting week. The full color COT report is linked here.

Gold o.i. was exactly as expected…with the bullion banks going short against every long…effectively stopping the gold rally in its tracks. The bullion banks increased their net short position by a staggering [but not surprising] 21,939 contracts. The bullion banks are now net short 204,226 contracts…20.4 million ounces. The full-color COT graph for gold is linked here.

We are now sitting with a COT structure that is bullish to very bullish for silver…and very bearish for gold. This situation has only existed a few times during the last ten years. Ted suggested [and not for the first time] that maybe ‘da boyz’ are trying to permanently separate silver and gold prices so that silver will rise independently of gold. That’s possible…but we’ll have to wait and see if it pans out that way.

The Comex Delivery Report for Friday showed that only 55 gold contracts were delivered…and nothing at all in silver. There were no changes in the alleged holdings of either GLD or SLV. The U.S. Mint has updated their production numbers in silver eagles again. This time they showed that another 275,000 silver eagles were minted…bringing the monthly total up to 2,300,000. Nothing was added for gold eagles. And the Comex-approved warehouses reported that 320,392 ounces of silver were withdrawn from their collective inventories.

The usual N.Y. gold commentator mentioned that The Gartman Letter’s buy stop at $955 was not triggered yesterday because gold did not, in fact, trade long enough above that price to trigger its buy. He also had this…”There is a good deal of commotion today regarding forecasts that China will pass India in gold consumption in some five years. It is odd that so many observers extrapolate about the intensely volatile Indian gold market based on a few months recent history. At the time of the enormous imports last summer, the talk might well have been of India monopolizing the world gold stock! In any case, China’s gold production, bolstered by subsidized fuel and the hugely undervalued Yuan apparently supplies almost all local demand (India mines almost no gold). How seriously can one take the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which today reports that the gold contract is backed by only 156 kilos of metal? The Bloomberg story is headlined “China May Overtake India in Gold Demand, Council Says”..and the link is here.”

The other day, several companies [i.e. Ford (NYSE:F), eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) and AT&T (NYSE:T)] reported better than expected earnings and as a result, the stock market rallied on the news. While some companies have reported better than expected earnings for Q2/2009, others have struggled. Today’s chart provides some perspective on the current earnings environment by focusing on 12-month, as reported, S&P 500 earnings. You can see how earnings are expected [38% of S&P 500 companies have reported for Q2/2009] to have declined over 98% since peaking in Q3/2007, making this by far the largest decline on record…and the data goes back to 1936. I thank P.S. for providing this data…which is all [including the chart] courtesy of www.chartoftheday.com …the link to the website is here.

Besides the Bloomberg story embedded in the usual N.Y. gold commentator’s paragraph above, I have three other stories for your reading pleasure this weekend. The first is from yesterday’s edition of The Economist out of London. It bears the headline “Here today, gone by 2010: Russia reserve fund is emptying fast.” The story is certainly worth the read…and I thank P.S. for sending it along. The link is here.

The next story is from the hallowed halls of the The New York Times. It’s a story about high-frequency trading—which has become one of the most talked-about and mysterious forces in the markets. Casey Research’s own Bud Conrad was circulating this story around the company yesterday…and I thought it worthy of your time. It’s entitled “Stock Traders Find Speed Pays, in Milliseconds”…and the link is here.

The last story today is from commodityonline.com…and filed from Johannesburg. The title pretty much says it all…”New law boosts gold bar sale in South Africa.” Until I read this story, I wasn’t aware that South Africans were not allowed to own gold in bar form. You learn something new every day. The link is here.

Throughout all my years of investing, I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling…the big money was made in the waiting. – Jesse Livermore

Today’s ‘blast from the past’ goes back to 1972. I believe that this was their biggest, if not their only, hit. But what a hit it was. Turn up your speakers and then click here.

Something appears to be up in the gold and silver market…which the latest COT confirms. Further rallies in gold never amount to much when the bullion banks are short this amount of gold. Sure, I’ve seen their short position as high as 26 million ounces…which is 55,000 contracts higher than we are today…so I guess we can go higher, but the odds are not in our favor. How high we go from here [if we do go higher] depends entirely on whether the bullion banks are prepared to take on an even larger short position. But once that high [whatever, and whenever it is] is in, there is only one direction gold can go…down. Will silver go with it? Don’t know, but Ted Butler says that they would have to get the price below its latest low, which is around $12.40…about $1.50 below where it closed yesterday…before there would be any more significant long liquidation by the tech funds and the small traders. The 200-day moving average is at $12.29. Ted doesn’t think they can do it. We’ll see.

I note in closing that this is the last edition of Casey’s Daily Resource Plus. I hope that you have found it to be both educational and entertaining. Many parts of it will be shuffled off into other reports…and as most of you already know, I’ve been fortunate enough to be given my own daily stand-alone column. That honor is entirely because of you, dear reader…and for that, I’m grateful, appreciative…and thankful.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend and I’ll see you next week with a brand new look…which I look forward to seeing for the first time myself…as I haven’t seen it yet either.

Source: And Then There’s This…Monday, July 27, 2009

• World Bank President Robert Zoellick warned in a letter to the Group of Eight nations that the global economy is not out of the woods yet and they should be cautious about pulling back on stimulus programs.  Dated July 1, the letter was addressed to G8 host Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and said interventions by central banks and governments appeared to have “broken the fall in the global economy” by stabilizing financial markets and boosting demand. “Yet 2009 remains a dangerous year. Recent gains could be reversed easily, and the pace of recovery in 2010 is far from certain,” Zoellick wrote in the letter obtained byReuters on Monday.  The G8 heads of government are expected to issue a statement on the situation of the world economy during their meeting in the central Italian city of L’Aquila.

• The Institute for Supply Management’s index of U.S. service industries contracted last month at the slowest pace in nine months, as measures of new orders and employment improved.  The survey of non-manufacturing firms, which make up almost 90% of the economy, rose to 47 — higher than forecast — from 44 in May, according to data from the Tempe, Ariz.-based group. Readings of less than 50 signal contraction.  The index’s third straight monthly improvement reflects signs of stabilization in housing and consumer spending. That combined with leaner inventories means companies may start expanding output again in coming months, Bloomberg News reported.

• Anglo-Australian mining company Rio Tinto PLC (ADR NYSE: RTP) has agreed to sell its U.S. packaging business to Wisconsin-basedBemis Co. Inc. (NYSE: BMS) for $1.2 billion in cash and stock.   Bemis, a food-and-beverage packager, will acquire 23 operations spread across the U.S., Canada, Mexico, South America and New Zealand that package and wrap such things as meats, cheese, bagged lettuce and snack foods, the Wall Street Journalreported.  The deal should push its sales from $3.8 billion to $5.3 billion annually and significantly boosts Bemis’s role in many foods and beverages purchased in U.S. grocery stores.

• Economic worries pushed crude oil prices below $65 a barrel Monday for the first time since May 27 as investor doubts over a potential rebound in the global economy increased, Reutersreported.  Prices fell more than 3% to $64 a barrel, after touching a five-week low of $63.40 in overnight trading.  London Brent crude fell $1.29 from Friday’s close to trade at $64.32 a barrel.  Crude has fallen more than 13% after reaching nearly $74 a barrel on June 11 on optimism that an economic recovery could bolster demand.  But recent weak economic data — including a poor U.S. jobs report last week — has weighed on markets.

• Writeoffs for Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) may rise as much as 10% to $7.6 billion when it reports its second quarter results on July 17, according to a Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE ADR: CS) report obtained by Bloomberg News. Among the bad debts was $1.9 billion related to home equities, and 10.4% of credit card loans. Stress tests conducted by the U.S. government in May estimated the lender may face $136 billion in loan losses through next year.

• Moody’s Investors Service put Brazil’s credit ratings on review for an increase to investment grade, citing the country’s “demonstrated resilience to shocks” in the global economy, Bloomberg News reported. “Confronted with a wide array of adverse conditions, the Brazilian authorities’ policy response has been effective in containing the impact of the global crisis, thus providing evidence of increased resilience to shocks, a characteristic integral to an investment-grade credit profile,” Moody’s said.

• Justice Department officials have begun an initial review of the largest telecom companies such as Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) and AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) are anti-competitive,The Wall Street Journal reports. While no company is being singled out at this point, the investigation could explore whether wireless carriers hurt smaller competitors by signing exclusivity deals with phone handset makers, such as AT&T’s deal with Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) that makes it the sole carrier of Apple’s popular iPhone. Together, Verizon and AT&T control 60% of the 270 million wireless subscribers.

• Marc Andreessen, co-author of the first web browser, has started a venture capital fund with longtime business associate Ben Horowitz for new companies with new technology ideas, The New York Times reported. The duo’s company, called Andreessen Horowitz, has raised $300 million for tech-related investments, and will risk as little as $50,000 on new ideas. Any successful ideas will get up to $50 million for the companies to grow globally. Five-year returns in the venture capital industry were just 6% last year, a far cry from 2000’s 48% at the dot-com bubble’s peak. Andreessen is a director at Facebook Inc., which started with just $500,000 but has since raised $600 million.

Investment News Briefs Tuesday, July 7, 2009

The identity of the bank that is alleged to have failed the bank stress test was not revealed.

The bank-stress-test findings were reported yesterday (Sunday) by CNBC.com, which said it obtained the information from a source that it did not identify. The source did not identify the company, CNBC.com reported.

“At least one firm – under the [bank] stress test assumptions – will require more capital,” the source said.

The bank-stress-test results were contained in a two-dozen-page report that the government released Friday. But the results had already been “conveyed” to the firms, meaning the bank in question is aware of the U.S. central bank’s assessment, according to the published report.

This round of bank stress tests was essentially a two-step process. The first step – outlining how the banks have been analyzed – was taken care of with the report released over the weekend.  The second step – releasing the results to the public – will be taken care of when the actual results are released May 4, which is one week from today (Monday).

Neither the U.S. Federal Reserve nor the U.S. Treasury Department would comment.

The bank stress tests have a very specific purpose. Financial institutions that are found to have inadequate capital will have six months to raise the money via the private sector. If that doesn’t work, the government has said the financial institutions will be eligible for an infusion of capital via the federal government’s so-called “Capital Access Program.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said he would be open to banks repaying their Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) loans, as long as the availability of credit (borrowing) was not adversely affected.  As a Money Morning special report detailed last week, the credit markets don’t seem to be loosening up: Lending dropped by more than 20% from October 2008 to February 2009, despite initiatives to encourage such activity.

According to the conclusion of the report released over the weekend, “most banks currently have capital levels well in excess of the amounts needed to be well capitalized.”

However, as Money Morning has reported, the tests have become a “no-win” situation for the Obama administration.

“There are two things that are terribly wrong,” William M. Isaac, the Secura Group chairman who served as head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) from 1981 to 1985, told CNBC.com. The first problem – and a big one – is the fact that the details were announced at all.

“I can’t imagine what Treasury was thinking when it made that move. It has been causing incredible angst in the markets,” said Isaac. “The second big problem is that the Treasury is directing the stress testing, apparently with direct involvement of the White House at the highest levels. Bank regulation by law is supposed to be carried out by the independent banking agencies without any political interference.”

Market Matters

As Money Morning reported Friday – in a Wall Street version of the old “he said/(s)he said” drama, Bank of America Corp. (BAC) Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis claimed that ex-U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry M. “Hank” Paulson Jr. and central bank Chairman Ben S. Bernanke threatened to remove him from office if he backed out of the Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (SQD) merger or (publicly) discussed the mounting losses.

Paulson had previously testified that Lewis must have misinterpreted their comments, but then seemed to blame Bernanke for the threat (Translation: Paulson tried to throw Bernanke “under the bus.”).

New York Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo has been investigating the activities surrounding the merger to determine why shareholders were kept in the dark about the financial “challenges.”

Shifting to autos, Italy’s Fiat SpA (OTC ADR FIATY) emerged as a potential major global player as it attempts to forge a partnership with (soon-to-be-bankrupt?) Chrysler LLC, and also has interest in buying General Motors Corp.’s (GM) Opel unit. Meanwhile, GM will be closing 13 production plants over the summer to trim inventory and seems likely to miss a $1 billion debt payment due June 1 as it too moves closer to bankruptcy protection.

How bad is GM’s plight: GM may close its Pontiac division after 82 years of operation, The Wall Street Journal and MarketWatch.com reported over the weekend.

While the earnings news of the week found plenty of winners and losers, ultimately analysts perceived a bit of “cautious optimism.”  Bank of America and Morgan Stanley (MS) failed to live up to the favorable showings by Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) and other financials, though techs like Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN), Apple Inc. (AAPL) and International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), beat Wall Street expectations, and brought new hope that the downturn was nearing an end. (Watch for an updated “Hot Stocks” feature on IBM here in Money Morning later this week).

Unfortunately, Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) posted the first quarterly revenue decline in its 23-year history, though investors still cheered its ability to reduce costs during these challenging times for PC sales. McDonald’s Corp. (MCD), AT&T Inc. (T), and Ford Motor Co. (F) were among the diverse group of companies reporting better-than-expected results, while United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), and Continental Airlines Inc. (CAL) issued disappointing numbers.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), the subject of a recent “Buy, Sell or Hold” feature here in Money Morning, bucked the negative trend facing many retailers and posted higher quarterly earnings and revenue.

Additionally, U.S. retailers J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (JCP) and Coach Inc. (COH) each expressed positive sentiment that sales activity seems to picking up.  Oracle Corp. (ORCL) snapped up Sun Microsystems Inc. (JAVA) for $7.4 billion after IBM chose to pass, and PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) is attempting to purchase two related bottling companies as corporate execs seek favorable deals in this environment.  Such merger-and-acquisition (M&A) transactions often signal boardroom confidence and also indicate that the “worst” part of a downturn may be over.

Oil prices surged above the $51-a-barrel level late in the week as traders overlooked the higher inventory levels and instead focused on some favorable signs that the economy may be closing in on turnaround mode.

With a six-week winning streak on the line, investors offered their best “clutch hitting” late Friday, pushing all major indexes to higher levels. Early in the week, after investors digested negative news from the likes of Bank of America and GM, prognosticators said the weekly stock-market winning streak was all but over. However, some better-than-expected earnings and economic reports brought out the “bulls” for one final run.  The Nasdaq Composite Index ended the week in positive territory, and the other equity indexes were virtually flat from last week’s closing levels (with the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffering a slight decline).

Economically Speaking

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global downturn will be far worse than previously expected.  For 2009, the IMF expects the world economy to contract by 1.3%, its first such decline in 60-years, with over 10 million employees losing their jobs.  Unfortunately, its projections for the United States are even more dire (-2.8% for the year), with domestic financial institutions suffering $2.7 trillion in losses, almost twice the IMF’s prior estimates from just six months ago.

While much of the economic data of the week confirmed the IMF’s weak projection, analysts found a few positive signs that the downturn very well may have bottomed out.  While both new home sales and durable goods orders declined in March, the results beat the weaker Street expectations and came in the aftermath of some (relatively) strong February numbers.

In another promising sign of stability within the housing sector, the median price of an existing home sold in March actually rose for the second straight month.  Still, the record unemployment filings last week revealed the ongoing difficulties facing job seekers amid these tight labor conditions.  Likewise, leading economic indicators, a predictive report, dropped for the third consecutive month and many economists expect the recession to last at least until late third quarter.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: Controversial Stress Tests Reveal Only One Bank Needs Capital, but Worries Remain

For investors, this could be a good time to get in early on the potential windfall. Currently trading at slightly more than $24.00, AT&T (NYQ: T) is hovering near the bottom of its 52-week range of $20.90 – $40.70.

If Apple does in fact introduce a new iPhone, it could be faster and cheaper than current offerings, or create a new low-priced niche that matches the performance of its current 3G model.

Regardless, the impact could only be good for AT&T, which is the exclusive U.S. network provider for the iPhone.

The latest buzz about a new iPhone originated from United Arab Emirates mobile carrier Etisalat. When it announced on February 4, 2009 that it will begin selling the iPhone 3G on February 15. A report on the contract also mentioned a new iPhone slated for June.

The source of the June iPhone release remained murky, but analysts have been saying that a new iPhone may hit the streets this summer. The investor play here would be a long bet that the rumors are in fact true, and that history would repeat itself when it comes to Apple’s iPhone being the best friend of AT&T shareholders.

Going back to January 2007, when Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone to the world, AT&T saw a tsunami of subscriptions.

AT&T had said it that it signed up 146,000 new subscribers in the first two days it offered the iPhone. About 40% of subscribers who purchased an iPhone were new AT&T customers, according to the company. AT&T executives also said at the time that “store traffic above historical levels.”

The profitable relationship continues…

In its Q4 and full-year 2008 earnings, AT&T reported that quarterly net income was down 23.3% year-on-year, with $2.4 billion in 2008 compared with $3.1 billion in 2007.

Wired voice-service revenue dropped from $9.8 billion in Q4 2007 to $8.8 billion in Q4 2008 – a decline 10.3%.

However, full-year net income was up. It increased 7.7%, from $11.95 billion in 2007 to $12.87 billion in 2008.

The company said the increase was largely attributable to wireless revenue, which shot up 13.5%, from $10.2 billion in Q4 2007 to $11.5 billion in Q4 2008. AT&T reported one million additional subscribers in Q4, resulting in a total of 77 million – an increase of 7 million in 2008.

The growth was directly related to iPhone sales. AT&T activated 4.3 million iPhones in the second half of 2008.

Apple’s iPhone played a major role in the 51.2% growth in wireless-data revenues in Q4. According to AT&T’s press release, “wireless integrated devices in service more than doubled over the past year.”

While analysts argued over whether or not those numbers met expectations, the bigger theme here is that a new iPhone could increase AT&T’s revenues in 2009. One way or another, that has to give the stock a jolt barring any unforeseen debacles in these crazy times.

American Idol — the talent show turned cultural icon — is more than just entertainment. The show is also a crash course in mobile media. In the 2008 season, the show generated 78 million text messages from viewers voting for their favorite singer. Even more startling: 22% of voters claim they first learned to text message by voting for their American Idol, according to a poll conducted by the network.

Mobile phones have come a long way from their humble beginnings. Now your phone has become an entire media platform. The possibilities are endless…

The iPhone Changes the Game

With the staggering growth of content available on mobile phones, it’s no surprise that the mobile advertising industry is picking up steam. The first step was paid content. Mobile users could text certain numbers to download ringtones and other content for a small fee. Now we’re seeing advertisers take advantage of the new capabilities of smart phones like the iPhone, the BlackBerry Storm and the T-Mobile G1.

Back in 2007, the new iPhone got off to a rocky start. AT&T (NYSE:T) — the iPhone’s exclusive carrier — announced the disappointing data right after the release. Customers activated only 146,000 iPhones during the first weekend, much less than the 500,000 activations predicted by giddy Wall Street analysts.

Since then, we’ve seen a newer, cheaper, faster iPhone hit the market — this time on a 3G network. And AT&T has finally managed to favorably work the iPhone into its rotation — even with the hefty kickbacks it sends to Apple for its trendy multimedia device. Yes, AT&T has sunk some serious dough into this affair, including $450 million on 3G network upgrades, according to Forbes. These expensive improvements were a major factor in the 23% year-to-year decline in the company’s net income last quarter…

But the 3G iPhone is finally beginning to bear fruit. AT&T has so far activated 4.3 million of the second-gen touch-screen phones— 1.9 million of them in the fourth quarter, according to Forbes. This more than doubles last year’s activation numbers — and nearly doubles Verizon’s activation data for the new BlackBerry Storm.

Believe it or not, the iPhone has changed something… it has changed the way we consume media. AT&T’s wireless division CEO says it best: “The success of our iPhone 3G launch has driven wireless growth and helped redefine the wireless data space.” As these mobile devices become increasingly ever-present, there’s no doubt that advertisers and developers will find new ways to capitalize on this growing media consumption.

Source: The iPhone Helps Mobile Marketing Mature

High-speed Internet can exert a profound impact on how local businesses and consumers improve their own personal productivity and expand their entertainment venues. Our thinking here is very much along the lines of our “Cell Phone Indicator” that we use in emerging markets – improved communications boost the local economy.

The House Energy and Commerce Committee approved $6 billion in rules for billions in government funds to spur high-speed Internet networks in unserved and underserved areas.

The Internet funding portion of the stimulus bill — a potential huge boon to phone, cable, and wireless companies – helps fulfill President Obama’s campaign promise to make high-speed communications ubiquitous in America. The $6 billion is widely considered a first step in a program that could last several years.

The grants will be issued by the Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Lawmakers and trade groups are arguing over some language ambiguity regarding spending, but that is not expected to become a major impediment to the roll out of these new services.

Once the new high-speed infrastructure is in place, customers can expect to have access to services that many Americans currently enjoy such as streaming video, teleconferencing, mobile Internet and effective e-commerce.

Even more important, a reliable and fast Internet infrastructure is perhaps the number-one motivator for larger corporations to relocate into these regions that can provider low-cost, high-quality labor forces. Coupled with tax incentives, rural Internet can substantially boost local economies – and the fortunes of independent telephone companies that can deliver bundled communications services.

How big is this rural Internet market? A 2007 survey by the Pew Internet and American Life Project concluded that only 38% of rural residents have a broadband Internet connection. In the cities and suburbs, the penetration rate is 55%.

The new bill also allocates $1 billion solely for wireless carriers to bolster their infrastructure for mobile cell phone and laptop connections.

While major players such as Verizon, AT&T, Comcast and others will profit from this new cash infusion, we believe local services stand to gain as well. One in particular that we identified is CenturyTel, Inc. (NYSE: CTL), in Monroe, Louisiana.

Currently trading at slightly over $27.00, CTL is in the low end of its 52-week range of 20.45 – 40.35.

In the third quarter ending September 30, 2008, CTL reported revenues of $650,000, down 8.2% from the same period the year before. Its net income plunged 23.5% to $82,760.

So why do you we believe CTL merits your attention? Because CTL added 20,600 high-speed Internet customers during Q3 – representing a 2.5% revenue contribution from Q3 in 2007 for similar services.

One troubling piece of data about CTL is its recent acquisition of local telco, Embarq Corp. in Overland Park, Kansas. As part of the deal, CenturyTel will assume $5.8 billion in debt as part of the all-stock merger.

Still, what remains to be seen is how much Embarq’s territory could benefit from the $6-billion dole out.

We suggest you keep an eye on CTL as the money pours forth from Washington. Local economies, and their telephone companies, could stand to benefit mightily from an upgraded digital network.