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The Three Roadblocks to Sony’s Turnaround

Bob Blandeburgo — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 11:57:21 +0000

Sony Corp. (NYSE ADR: SNE) is facing the first consecutive annual loss of its 63-year history.

The Tokyo-based company lost $1.1 billion (98.9 billion yen) last year, and it expects to lose another $1.4 billion (120 billion yen) in its fiscal year ending March 31. That would be Sony’s first back-to-back annual loss since the company went public in 1958.

And despite renewed optimism within its ranks, Sony still faces a plethora of challenges, including a questionable direction, cost-conscious consumers and a strengthening yen.

The onetime bellwether of the electronics industry has seen its market share crumble in almost every category: Nintendo Co. Ltd.’s (OTC ADR: NTDOY) Wii game console has supplanted Sony’s PlayStation brand, Sony has given up its lead in portable media players to Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPod, and Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. is now the world’s largest seller of televisions.

Hoping to turn the tide, Sony earlier this year underwent a major restructuring with the goal of unifying its hardware, software and entertainment businesses. The idea is to leverage its growing catalog of networked products with the software and services its sells, such as Internet-enabled televisions that enable consumers to watch Sony movies through an online connection.

“Consumers want products that are networked, multi-functional and service-enhanced utilizing open technologies, and user experiences that are rich, shared and, increasingly, green,” said Sony Chief Executive Officer Howard Stringer. “[The restructuring] will now make it possible for all of Sony’s parts to work together to assume a position of worldwide leadership and, together, achieve great things.”

Doubts Cast Shadow Over Efforts

While analysts agree with Sony’s loss estimate for this year, some doubt its restructuring efforts – which included thousands of layoffs and a streamlining of manufacturing in the – will truly pay off.

“They were hit fairly early by the downturn and have moved quicker than some competitors to restructure, but it remains to be seen if those moves will pay off,” Hideyuki Ookoshi, who helps oversee $365 million at Chiba-Gin Asset Management in Tokyo, told Bloomberg News. “The problem with Sony is it doesn’t know what it wants to be: Is it a game company, a consumer-electronics maker, a financial-services provider? There’s no direction.”

Operating income at Sony’s financial services division was propelled more than 57% by a boost in its life insurance revenue in the company’s fiscal first quarter ended June 30. But this non-core business won’t be the catalyst that brings Sony out of the red, according to Makoto Haga, president of Tokyo-based hedge fund Wing Asset Management Co.

“Profit at the financial unit helped Sony narrow a loss, but investors don’t appreciate that,” Haga told Bloomberg. “I can’t see any engine that drives its recovery and the company’s prospects are dim.”

As it stands now, CEO Stringer’s cost-cutting efforts have only gone so far, and investors like Yasuhiko Hirakawa want the British-born executive to prove he can boost Sony’s sales, which are expected to be 6% lower than last year.

“Cost cutting and reshuffling of management may help mend unprofitable businesses but they won’t make Sony competitive against Samsung and other rivals,” said Hirakawa, a fund manager at DIAM Co., which oversees $80 billion in assets including Sony shares. “The brand is still highly regarded but that won’t last forever.”

Premium Without the Value in Tough Times

While all electronics manufacturers have suffered during the worst economic crisis since World War II, premium-branded Sony has been hit especially hard. The economy has brought out the practical side of consumers, who flocked to cheaper television sets from makers like Vizio Inc., which is No. 2 in North America behind Samsung.

It’s the “intensification of price competition” that contributed to Sony’s $1.7 billion operating loss in its electronics segment last year, the company said. Comparable televisions from Samsung are often hundreds of dollars less than a Sony, without a significant sacrifice in tangible quality.

“I don’t think you can say a Samsung TV has a better picture than Sony TV,” Richard Doherty, co-founder of industry researcher Envisioneering Group told the San Diego Union-Tribune. “But (the difference) has narrowed, and that’s one of the problems.”

Indeed, while TVs from Sony may have technically superior features such as 240mhz refresh rates, it usually won’t make a difference to the mass market. The benefit of such a feature is “difficult to discern,” writes CNET, a leading Web site from CBS Interactive Inc.

Televisions are just one area where Sony is struggling with its value proposition. Until recently, Sony faced mounting pressure from video game executives and analysts to cut the price of its $400 PlayStation 3 (PS3) console.

“They have to cut the price, because if they don’t, the attach rates [the ratio of games purchased to a console] are likely to slow. If we are being realistic, we might have to stop supporting Sony,” Bobby Kotick, chief executive officer and president of Activision Blizzard Inc. (Nasdaq: ATVI) said in a June interview with Times Online.

After months of lowering manufacturing costs on PS3, Sony finally dropped the price of the console to $300 in the United States and launched an ad campaign touting “It only does everything,” a reference to PS3’s ability to play games, Blu-ray movies and browse the Internet.

The result was Sony selling more than 1 million PS3s in the first three weeks of September, almost the same amount it sold in the entire second quarter. A similar price drop in Japan led to PS3 outselling Nintendo’s Wii last month, a first since the console was released in Nov. 2006.

Sony’s Walkman, which first revolutionized portable audio 30 years ago, now comes in the form of a touchscreen digital media player, but has failed to put a dent in Apple’s ubiquitous iPod, which also has a touchscreen model. Sony’s 32-gigabyte Walkman sells for $400. But while it gives users some limited Internet options, Apple’s comparable iPod Touch sells for $100 less and has access to thousands of applications – many of them free – in its vaunted App Store.

Without any tangible features to discern it from the competition, it’s no wonder Sony expects to sell just 6.7 million Walkmans this year, while Apple sold 10 million iPods in its third quarter alone.

Currency Crisis

Sony, like its Japanese counterpart Panasonic Corp. (NYSE ADR: PC), is inherently at a disadvantage to Korean competitors like Samsung and LG Electronics Inc. due to the yen’s strengthening position against the won and U.S. dollar. The yen’s gain has enabled the Korean manufacturers to sell its products at a discount of as much as a 10% without taking a hit on margin.

“We don’t have a moment to breathe,” Sony Vice Chairman Ryoji Chubachi said of the strengthening Japanese currency in a Bloomberg interview on Tuesday. “It is a tough environment.”

The yen has gained about 15% versus the Korean won and 14% against the dollar in the 12 months ended Sept. 30, according to Bloomberg data. The dollar is at its weakest levels against the yen since February, trading at as low as 88.86 yen on Tuesday. The yen has been the third-best performer among G-10 members in the past 12 months.

For Sony and other Japanese companies, a rising yen is “like a death warrant as things stand now and if this continues, they will have a very difficult time,” said Chu Moon Sung, a Seoul-based fund manager at Shinhan BNP Paribas Asset Management Co., which manages the equivalent of $26 billion in assets. “For Korean companies, it’s a favorable environment and the currency has been the biggest factor for their good performance.”

Source: The Three Roadblocks to Sony’s Turnaround

Delays Hit Video Game Maker’s Guidance Hard

Bob Blandeburgo — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 15:00:00 +0000

Shares of “Grand Theft Auto” maker Take-Two Interactive (Nasdaq:TTWO) took a drubbing yesterday (Tuesday) after it lowered its financial outlook and delayed key video game releases until its next fiscal year.

Take-Two now expects its loss to fall between 65 cents and 75 cents per share and revenue to be between $120 million and $130 million for the quarter ending July 31. Wall Street analysts were expecting a loss of 54 cents and revenue of $162.2 million.

The move reflects reduced sales of catalog products and lower than anticipated initial retailer orders of new releases due to a retail environment that is proving even more challenging Take-Two expected, it said in a statement.

The company delayed the release of “Bioshock 2,” “Max Payne 3” and “Red Dead Redemption” to fiscal 2010, which starts November 1. It is unclear whether any of these titles will ship in time for the holiday season, a critical time for the $22 billion video game industry.

“The decision to shift a release date is never an easy one, especially with a product as highly anticipated as ‘BioShock 2,’” said Take-Two Chief Executive Officer Ben Feder. “We felt that it was essential to invest the additional time to ensure that this title will deliver what its fans expect and deserve.”

Had “Bioshock 2” not been delayed, 2 million copies would have shipped in Take-Two’s fiscal fourth quarter ending October 31, Wedbush Morgan Securities Inc. analyst Michael Pachter said in a note to investors obtained by The Associated Press. Such a shipment would have generated $90 million in revenue, Pachter said.

Still, Pachter reiterated his “outperform” rating on the company, attributing the rating to next year’s earnings and the next title in the popular “Grand Theft Auto” series, which Take-Two has not given any indication of shipping next year.

Shares of Take-Two closed at $8.10 yesterday, down 9.80%.

Once thought of as recession-proof, the video game industry has suffered a series of tough losses in the last few quarters, particularly with industry giant Electronic Arts (Nasdaq: ERTS), which has suffered losses in the hundreds of millions this fiscal year.

Despite Take-Two’s delay of key holiday titles, a slew of big-name titles from other players in the industry will propel the stocks of companies that publish video games, particularly Activision Blizzard Inc. (Nasdaq:ATVI), a possible second-half wonder as reported by Money Morning.

Source: Delays Hit Video Game Maker’s Guidance Hard

Rebounding Tech Sector Stars Could Play Key Role in U.S. Economy’s Second-Half Rebound

Bob Blandeburgo — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:49:24 +0000

If the last three months are any indication, the U.S. tech sector has shaken off its recession-heightened late-winter doldrums, and could see its fortunes soar in the year’s second half as businesses and consumers open their wallets and the broader economy picks up speed.

The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite Index was at the forefront of the most-recent market rally, having soared more than 45% since hitting its 52-week low on March 10. That outpaced both the Dow Jones Industrial Average – up 30% in that time – and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index – up about 37%.

According to industry analysts, the technology sector – because it is heavily reliant on borrowing, as well as consumer demand – can serve as a harbinger of economic recovery.

“Technology tends to be a leader in the early stages of an economic turn. That’s what we took for as confirmation of a sustainable rally-money rotating into a sector that historically is seen as consumer- and business-sensitive, and requiring more leverage in terms of borrowed money, because it is more sensitive to the economy,” Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald told MarketWatch.com. “I expect technology to continue to lead well through this year and into February of next year.”

Spearheading the Nasdaq’s charge has been Redmond, Wash. software giant Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT). While its fiscal third-quarter profit fell 11% from a year earlier, Microsoft beat analysts’ expectations, helping the company’s stock to surge more than 50% from its mid-March low. Microsoft is up about 16% in the past month.

Semiconductor manufacturer Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) could trade in the is up more than 45% in the past six months to its current level of about $21 per share. The company could trade up into mid-$30s within 12 months, according to Paul J. Nolte, director of investments atHinsdale Associates Inc., an Illinois money management firm.

Earlier this month, in fact, Texas Instruments sharply raised its second-quarter financial guidance. The reason: Customers had slowed the rate at which they were reducing chip inventories – a signal that the market for semiconductors may be stabilizing.

The company now expects to report earnings per share (EPS) of 14 cents to 22 cents, up from the previous forecast of 1 cent to 15 cents per share.

Opening New Windows

The long-suffering PC market may get a shot in the arm this fall with the Oct. 22 release of Microsoft’s Windows 7, which is all but guaranteed to generate better reviews than its predecessor, Windows Vista. Pre-release versions being publicly tested are already being called better than Vista, which was dogged by geeks and general end-users alike for its slow performance and questionable compatibility with legacy software and hardware.

Stopping short of admitting the goof and giving away Windows 7 to existing Vista users, Microsoft is offering cheaper upgrades to those who pre-order Windows 7 between June 26 and July 11. The company will offer free Windows 7 upgrades to anyone who purchases a PC pre-installed with Vista after June 26.

Windows 7 is expected to be the operating system of choice for information technology (IT) managers who make purchasing decisions for corporate users.

“The upcoming introduction of Windows 7 could spur a rapid corporate PC upgrade cycle starting in late 2010/early 2011, catalyzed by the end of support for Windows XP and a recovery-based increase in IT spending,” said Jeffries & Co. Inc. analyst Katherine Egbert wrote in a recent research report.

But history shows that a release of a new operating system – no matter how positive the buzz – will translate into only a slight increase in PC sales, Microsoft Senior Vice President Bill Veghte said in a webcastearlier this month. On the business side, enthusiasm is high for Windows 7, but corporations will not rush to upgrade when it is released. The release “will get drowned by the macroeconomic environment,” Veghte said. “As the macro environment comes back, people will have to buy new PCs. People aren’t using PCs any less.”

Game On

Looking ahead, the tech sector is anticipating a slew of product releases in the year’s second half – many of them in the $22 billion video-game sector, which lives and dies on new releases.

Activision Blizzard Inc. (Nasdaq: ATVI), the largest third-party game publisher in the world, will lead the way with the latest in its rock music game series with the September release of “Guitar Hero 5″ on four platforms: Sony Corp.’s (NYSE ADR: SNE) PlayStation 2 and 3, Microsoft’s Xbox 360 and Nintendo Co. Ltd.’s (OTC ADR: NTDOY) Wii. The third iteration of “Guitar Hero” became the first video game ever to achieve $1 billion in sales.

But the music from Activision won’t stop with the last strum of a toy guitar: The company will debut “DJ Hero” in October for the same four platforms. “DJ Hero” will ship with a mock turntable and should appeal to fans that don’t turn to rock for their music fix.

Activision will release new titles for proven franchises such as “Modern Warfare” and “Tony Hawk.” The first “Modern Warfare” title, released in 2007, has sold 13 million copies worldwide and is one of the best-selling games on Xbox 360. The new “Tony Hawk” game represents the 12th installment in the series since it was started 10 years ago.

While sales of console games typically garner most of the attention, it is Activision’s “World of Warcraft” (WoW) playing the role of its single largest sales generator. In 2008, WoW accounted for $1.1 billion in revenue, or 38% of Activision’s total revenue. Sales from all of Activision’s console titles were $1.2 billion. WoW has more than 11.5 million subscribers, Activision said.

Since its dropping down to its 52-week low of $8.14 in January, Activision shares have risen steadily, and are now trading in the $12 range. With a war chest stuffed with nearly $3 billion in cash and ratingsof mostly “Buy” or “Strong Buy” from analysts, Activision may warrant closer study by individual investors, too.

Activision’s rival, Electronic Arts Inc. (Nasdaq: ERTS) also has some potential-big-hit titles coming in the year’s second half, but saw its losses more than double to $1 billion for the fiscal year that ended March 31. Like most game publishers looking to cash in on the holiday shopping season – primetime for consumer spending – EA is saving its best for the second half of 2009.

Titles such as “Madden NFL 10,” “The Beatles Rock Band” and “Left 4 Dead 2″ will sell well, but the outlook for EA on Wall Street is mixed, with the majority of analysts rating the company as a “Hold.”

Some analysts say that EA can weather the current downturn in consumer spending, as it sits on more than $1.6 billion in cash, according to its annual regulatory filing with the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), but the outlook for the 2009 Christmas shopping season remains uncertain.

Will iSpend?

Following a sharp drop in its stock after the revelation that its chief executive officer’s health may be worse than previously thought, shares of Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) have slowly been climbing back toward its 52-week high of $180.91. The shares are currently trading at about 21% below that peak.

The Cupertino, Calif.-based company on June 8 removed a barrier that had stopped many consumers from purchasing its popular iPhone when it lowered the price of its 8-gigabyte 3G model to $99. With wireless plans starting at around $70 per month, Apple’s phone – and perhaps more importantly, its app store – will find its way into the hands of many more consumers in the second half of 2009.

Couple the 8GB iPhone 3G with the newly released, feature-rich 3GS model – and then stir in a barrage of television commercials – and the result should be a marked improvement in revenue.

It is unlikely that Palm Inc.’s (Nasdaq: PALM) Pre will put a dent in iPhone sales, partly because of sustained shortages as Apple floods the market with its phone. However, Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) customers locked in their contracts looking to upgrade to a phone with a growing app catalog will see the Pre’s similarities with the iPhone.

Sprint Chief Financial Officer Bob Brust told investors via a webcast at Wachovia Corp.’s Annual Mid-Year Equity Conference that Pre shortages still exist weeks after its launch.

“We still have a backlog of subscribers but it’s not unmanageable and we get shipments every week,” Brust said. Sprint is the exclusive carrier of the Pre.

Analysts estimate that 50,000 to 100,000 Pres were sold in its debut weekend earlier this month, while Apple said the new iPhone sold 1 million units in its opening weekend.

Source: Rebounding Tech Sector Stars Could Play Key Role in U.S. Economy’s Second-Half Rebound

[Editor's Note: This tech-sector preview is the opening installment of a new Money Morning series that will make economic projections for key U.S. sectors for the last half of 2009. As part of that series, look for forecasts for housing, energy, U.S. stocks and the emerging markets.]

Investment News Briefs Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Money Morning Staff — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 15:30:58 +0000

Oil Takes a Spill; SEC Expands Madoff Investigation; Sony Could Lose Largest Game Publisher; Nasdaq Outpaces Other Indices; Walgreens Misses Street Estimates; U.S. Car Brands Close Gap with Toyota Quality…

In spite of tense geopolitical situations in the Middle East, light sweet crude for July delivery yesterday (Monday) fell $2.62, or 3.8%, to settle at $66.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Large and violent protests in Iran over the outcome of its recent election would normally raise concerns about supply disruptions and drive up the price of oil. Instead, the market is looking past this tense backdrop in the world’s No. 4 oil producer because of a large supply worldwide, Alaron Trading energy analyst Phil Flynn told CNN Money.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) charged a brokerage firm and several individuals with raising money from investors to feed Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. Cohmad Securities Corp., its chairman Maurice Cohn, Chief Operating Officer Marcia Cohn and representative Robert Jaffe have all been charged with securities fraud, CNN Money reports. The Cohns and Jaffe allegedly courted investors for Madoff’s grand scheme, which may get Madoff up to 150 years in prison and $170 billion in restitution.

The chief executive officer and president of the world’s largest third-party video game publisher fired a shot over Sony Corp.’s (NYSE: SNE) bow, taking the electronics giant to task over the high price of its PlayStation 3 console and going as far to say his company may pull its support if a price drop doesn’t happen soon. Activision Blizzard Inc.’s (Nasdaq: ATVI) Bobby Kotick said his company paid Sony $500 million in royalties and other goods last year, according to the Times Online. “They have to cut the price, because if they don’t, the attach rates [the ratio of games purchased to a console] are likely to slow. If we are being realistic, we might have to stop supporting Sony,” Kotick said. “When we look at 2010 and 2011, we might want to consider if we support the console – and the [PlayStation Portable] too.” Activision is the company responsible for the some of the sector’s largest franchises including “Guitar Hero,” “Call of Duty” and the “Tony Hawk” series of skateboarding games. A loss of support from Activision would be a huge blow for Sony’s gaming arm, which lost $597 million last year. Sony’s PlayStation 3 is currently third in a three-horse video game race behind Nintendo Co. Ltd.’s (ADR OTC: NTDOY) Wii and Microsoft Corp.’s (Nasdaq: MSFT) Xbox 360.

In a sign that may show investors have let their guard down, technology stocks have significantly outperformed the broader market, according to MarketWatch.com. Since its March low, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index is up more than 40% and nearly 13% for the year. “Technology tends to be a leader in the early stages of an economic turn.,” said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald. “That’s what we look for as confirmation of a sustainable rally — money rotating into a sector that historically is seen as consumer- and business-sensitive, and requiring more leverage in terms of borrowed money, because it is more sensitive to the economy.” Still, Nasdaq’s notorious volatility was on display yesterday (Monday), as it fell 3.35%, more than both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

Restructuring costs and merchandise markdowns contributed toWalgreen Co.’s (NYSE: WAG) declining profit, which fell by 8.7% in the quarter ended May 31. The drugstore chain reported a net income of $522 million, or 53 cents per share on $16.2 billion in revenue. That compares to a net income of $572 million, or 58 cents per share on revenues of $15 billion in the same period last year. Wall Street was expecting Walgreens to earn 56 cents per share. The company’s shares closed at $29.64 yesterday (Monday), down 5.7%.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and General Motors’ (OTC: GMGMQ) Chevrolet division are close to eliminating a long-criticized quality gap with Toyota Motor Corp. (ADR NYSE: TM), according a closely watched J.D. Power and Associates survey. The top three spots in the survey went to luxury brands, while Chevrolet, Ford and Toyota were in what amounted to a statistical dead heat further down in the rankings, Reuters reported. “Have the leading domestic nameplates caught up with Toyota? The answer is almost,” Dave Sargent, vice president for auto research at J.D. Power said. Toyota’s Lexus brand took the top spot, while Porsche and GM’s Cadillac were Nos. 2 and 3 respectively.

Source: Investment News Briefs Tuesday, June 23, 2009

How To Make Real Profits In The Virtual World

Martin Hutchinson — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 13:26:15 +0000

The video game industry has a reputation for being recession proof. And soaring sales this year suggest there are some great profit opportunities in the sector. That’s why the Money Morning team have created this comprehensive guide to virtual investing.

If you want to invest in video games there are, essentially, four ways to do it…

Investing in video game publishers.

Investing in video game retailers.

Investing in companies that make video game consoles.

Investing in companies that make video game accessories.

Game Publishers

These are the companies that make the games. And Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ:ERTS) and Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) are the best bets right now.

Electronic Arts is the publisher of the popular Madden franchise, which gives it a consistent intake every year. Adding to its arsenal with a game like Spore will no doubt boost its bottom line even further.

Activision Blizzard is another strong contender. Guitar Hero has proven extremely popular, as has World of Warcraft. And while the new Call of Duty probably won’t sell as well as its hugely successful predecessor, Call of Duty 4, it will no doubt turn a respectable profit.

Avoid THQ Inc. (NASDAQ:THQI), which seems to have forgotten what games are and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ:TTWO), which is overly reliant on its controversial Grand Theft Auto series. Take-Two also had a good opportunity to be taken over by the much larger Elecrtonic Arts, but a deal never got done, which raises questions about the company’s management.

Accessories

As the unrivaled success of the Wii showed, innovation in video game accessories can pay off. For every console, as well as the PC, there are multiple games that can be enhanced by the use of a new input medium.

Games such as Guitar Hero, a game where you use a guitar shaped controller to play along with music, Flight Simulator X – the premiere flight simulator game is greatly enhanced by the use of a joystick, and the Dance Dance Revolution series, which features games that are best played with a dance pad, are always emerging on the market.

While, most of the accessories are made by the company of the game that requires them, there are external controllers that are always there competing for the market. Some companies that make these include MadCatz Interactive Inc. (AMEX:MCZ), a peripheral company specializing in mainly console accessories and Logitech International (NASDAQ:LOGI) a Swiss company that specializes in mostly in PC peripherals.

Retailers

While many electronics stores and retailers sell video games, there are some specifically designed to do so. The biggest of these in the world is GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME). GameStop stocks new, used and old games, as well as multiple accessories and consoles. The largest video game retailer in Europe is GAME Group PLC (London:GMG). They operate similarly to GameStop.

Consoles

More than $9 billion was spent on video game consoles last year. Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony all have new systems on the market, and they’ve all proved formidable.

[...] All of these companies are reasonably solid investments, but, in terms of gaming, Sony Corp. (NYSE:SNE) and Nintendo Co. (Pink Sheets:NTDOY) look like they are going to have some very good years.

Sony has got an amazing games division that is producing very high quality games for its console. And Nintendo is always going to be in demand, though it needs to start making more games for the Wii and DS.

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), on the other hand, needs to acquire more exclusives, plus this report has nothing to do with the upcoming Windows 7, which is the biggest part of Microsoft’s business.

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co.

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. (OTC: FXCNF) is a technology company based in Taiwan. It manufactures the Mac mini, the iPhone and the iPod for Apple Inc. (AAPL), cell phones for Nokia Corp. (NOK), and motherboards for Intel Corp. (INTC).

Of course, it also manufactures PS2, PS3, Xbox 360, and Wii – the four most popular gaming consoles – making it a tremendous play on the video game industry.

Emerging Markets: The Future of the Gaming Industry

The Middle East, China, India, Africa, and South America all have extreme pirating problems where video games are concerned. Thus, most companies have trouble expanding into these markets.

The Chinese market is a rapidly growing area for video games. However, the video games that the Chinese are enjoying are not what the West is enjoying. Chinese consumers love MMORPGs. While an average Western MMORPG, like Everquest for example, will reach 500,000 users. An AVERAGE Chinese MMORPG will attract well over 1,000,000 users very quickly.

Of World of Warcraft’s 10 million subscribers, 1.5 million live in China. Analysts estimate that the WoW Chinese market, alone, could eventually have 10 million users.

Most Chinese play MMORPGs in internet cafés (since most of them have limited Internet access). A large percentage of Chinese, however, do play free MMORPG’s. Free MMORPGs usually are completely free to play, but players can pay money to expand the gaming experience (bigger map to play on, more areas etc.) or improve their character (items, weapons character stats, etc.). While this doesn’t seem to like it would make a lot of money, it actually does, thanks to the addictive nature of most MMORPGs.

Some of the bigger names in the Chinese MMORPG market are Giant Interactive Group Inc. (NYSE:GA), Perfect World Co. Ltd. (Nasdaq:PWRD), Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd. (Nasdaq:SNDA), and The9 Ltd. (Nasdaq:NCTY).

Unfortunately, China is China. As such, the government always thinks of something ‘imaginative’ to do with the gaming market. The ‘Fatigue System’ is a means by which the government gets to control how long its citizens spend online playing games.

This system requests that games stop rewarding players after three hours of play in one day. Additionally, the system also requests an ID for players so as to be able to control their play more easily. While the system was originally meant for all gamers, it has been limited to gamers under the age of 18, due to the initial outcry it garnered.

China is also notorious for having the largest game sweatshop industry in the world. A game sweatshop is where a person is paid to play a game intensively and to make an extremely good character in it. That character is then sold to whomever wants it.

Chinese censorship is surprisingly low as the government only censors games that are anti-Chinese or portray Tibet and Taiwan as independent nations.

India’s market has yet to fully realize the potential of video games (putting the pirating aside). India is regularly compared to China in 2001. The online video games market is picking up but the overall market is still small. The few Indians who do game, do so like the Chinese: in Internet cafés. Unfortunately, there aren’t any enormous MMORPG makers (or equivalents) in India, yet.

The Middle East is generally also a pirating heaven though there are some legitimate shops usually selling games that haven’t been translated. Countries like Saudi Arabia also tend to ban certain games that are conceived as anti-Muslim.

If you wanted to invest in one of the Chinese MMORPG makers, the one that looks the best thanks to its pricing model and quality of games is Giant Interactive.

PS. This is an excerpt from a three-part guide to investing in the video game industry. For the complete version, please go to Money Morning’s archive pages.

Source: The Investor’s Guide to The Video Game Industry – Page 2

EA Drops Hostile Bid for Take-Two but a Friendly Deal Could be Imminent

Jason Simpkins — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 14:55:15 +0000

Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) dropped its $2 billion hostile takeover of video game publisher Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO) yesterday (Monday), but the two companies have entered into private discussions that may finally result in a friendly merger.

Relations between the two companies began to thaw Friday, when Electronic Arts Chief Executive Officer John Riccitiello placed a call Take-Two Chairman Strauss Zelnick. After a weekend of discussions, EA announced that after six months, it would not extend the deadline for its hostile takeover bid.

EA said yesterday that its $25.74 a share offer was contingent on being able to distribute Take-Two products during the 2008 Christmas season. But since there is no longer any chance of that happening, EA must “validate the assumptions” inherent in its previous offer.

To assuage EA’s concerns Take-Two has agreed to present the company with its three-year product lineup, as well as financial forecasts.

In a letter made public yesterday, Take-Two’s Zelnick said his company looks forward to showing EA, and its board members, “the significant strides made by Take-Two since [Electronic Arts] last undertook a detailed review of our business in early 2007.”

However, Zelnick also reiterated his previous claim that a bid of $25.74 a share “undervalues Take-Two’s franchise and financial performance.”

EA initially offered $26 dollars a share for Take-Two in February, but lowered the bid to $25.74 a share after Take-Two issued additional shares. EA extended the deadline for the offer five times in an attempt to wear Take-Two investors down, and to give antitrust regulators ample time to review the deal.

“They are both posturing,” Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter told The Associated Press. “EA is saying ‘we want to pay less,’ Take-Two is saying they want more. The important thing is that they are talking.”

EA is very interested in Take-Two’s hit “Grand Theft Auto” series, which has garnered a reputation among parents and young adults alike for its graphic violence and sexually charged content. The latest installment of the series, “GTA IV,” was released on April 29 and been a boon for Take-Two.

The game sold 11 million units and pulled in gross revenue of $500 million in its first week. GTA IV’s success alone was enough to push fiscal 2008 revenue estimates to a range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion. The previous range was $1.25 billion to $1.4 billion.

Sales from the Grand Theft Auto franchise accounted for 78% of Take Two’s total sales last quarter.

Outside of Grand Theft Auto, Take-Two’s product line runs thin but includes well-known games such as “Civilization” and “BioShock,” which is being made into a movie. And EA is looking to bolster its arsenal to compete with rival Activision Bizzard Inc. (ATVI), maker of the hit “Guitar Hero” series.

“A mutual deal is going to have to be higher than $25.74, in order for the board of Take-Two to save face – call it a dollar or two dollars more,” Hudson Square Research analyst Daniel Ernst told Reuters. “EA can certainly afford to pay more.”

Source: EA Drops Hostile Bid for Take-Two but a Friendly Deal Could be Imminent