Karim Rahemtulla (Investment U):
Of all the great investments you could have made in 2009, gold is right up there among the best of them.

The price of gold has surged this year, taking gold shares upwards with it. Readers of my Xcelerated Profits Report have rung the register with 45% profits on Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) and a triple-digit winner on Golden Star Resources (NYSE: GSS). We’re also up big on Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) at the moment.

All is good, right?

On the surface, perhaps. But not if you believe what the options market is saying…

Yamana Options Signal a Share Price Drop

Using Yamana as an example, the options market is betting that over the next 12 months or so, Yamana may fall from current levels of around $13 back into the single digits again.

Just take a look at the January 2011 $7.50 put options (the right to sell Yamana shares at $7.50), currently trading at $0.70 cents per contract. This means the put buyer thinks Yamana’s price will fall to $6.80 – almost 50% below current levels – in order to be in the money. The $6.80 price is derived from subtracting the price of the option from the strike price ($7.50 minus $0.70 = $6.80). This tale is similar across other gold shares, too.

These put options are expensive relative to Yamana’s share price – the result of gold prices moving sharply in previous weeks and causing the volatility in gold stocks to increase.

As a quick refresher, the price of an option is based on four major factors:

The price of the underlying shares
The options strike price
The time to expiration
The volatility of the underlying shares
Two Ways to Play Gold Prices… But Only One Viable Option

So if you’re a gold investor looking to participate in the market, what can you do to protect your profits, or buy shares at a lower price? Here are two potential ways…

Click here for the rest of Mr. Rahemtulla’s Analysis at Investment U.

But sometimes, we make exceptions – especially when their over-zealous attitude causes a stock to blast higher and hand us triple-digit gains.

I remember one such occurrence in particular with a high-tech company that we own in our Xclerated Profits Report portfolio. Thanks to some giddy CNBC analysts pumping up the price, the stock surged from $6 to $20 and we took half our position off the table for a gain of more than 100%.

The small-cap stock has suffered along with the broader market, but there’s no doubt that its business is viable. It’s leading the way in the field of touch screen and force-feedback technology – otherwise known as “haptics.” In short, this simplifies and enhances human interaction with technology in a variety of ways.

Cellphones… Games… Cars… Healthcare… This Technology is Everywhere

You’ve probably used the company’s tactile feedback technology and don’t even know it.

• For example, its technology is what causes cellphones to vibrate when they ring, or you get a message. And the company has licensed the technology to major firms like Nokia (NYSE:NOK), Samsung, Motorola (NYSE:MOT), and LG.
• It’s also present in video games, which gives gamers a more interactive, realistic experience, as the action on the screen is “forced” back into the controller.
• Elsewhere, it’s used in the auto industry in dashboard instruments, the casino industry in gaming machines, and the medical industry, in helping to train surgeons and doctors by replicating the behavior of the human body.

The company holds hundreds of patents and it recently signed a deal with a major chip company, a move that an influential analyst called a “game changer.”

In short, we spotted the vast potential well before Wall Street and we’re looking for another triple-digit win on the stock. And if that happens, we’ll adopt the same practice that we always do – one that you should use in your own investing…

The Name of the Game is Profits

We have a hard and fast rule at the Xcelerated Profits Report: We don’t discriminate when it comes to profits. That means if we have a winner of 100%-plus, we take our money off the table. This is true for stocks or options.

We did this last week when we sold half our shares in the gold company Golden Star Resources (NYSE: GSS) for a cool 103% gain in just a couple of months. But what makes this trade even sweeter is that we bought the shares using the proceeds from call options that we sold on another gold stock we’ve owned for a while – Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY).

Come options expiration in January, if Yamana is trading above $6.75 per share or thereabouts (it’s currently close to $11), we’ll have essentially bought the shares of GSS for nothing.

And speaking of gold, I’ve made another play in the upcoming October Xcelerated Profits Report issue, due out at the end of this week. But it’s a play with a twist – we’re taking a “show me” stance on gold prices, arguing that gold is either going to soar or plunge from current levels. What’s more, we’ll make it do so for about $3. If you’re looking for exposure to gold, or to hedge against a price drop, you don’t want to miss it.

The bottom line is that we don’t just make picks. We take our ideas and then figure out how to turn them into “xcelerated” profits by using straightforward investment strategies that many other investors don’t know about. We teach, then we trade.

Good investing,

Karim Rahemtulla

Source: How to Turn Ordinary Profits into ‘Xcelerated’ Profits

There is a buzz in the commodities markets this week. Just about anything that can be pulled from the ground is surging in value. Everything, that is, but natural gas.

Most notably, gold is just about ready to reach over the critical $1,000 level, proving that investors are looking for safety. Even without a hint of inflation, the precious metal has surged by over 5% so far this week.

The quick run means the world’s gold miners are surging in value. The more leverage packed into their balance sheets, the higher their prices are going to go.

So far, Yumana Gold (NYSE:AUY) is up by nearly 20% this week, while AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) is up by over 15%.

It is a similar situation for the silver industry. As investors search for tangible value, the silver industry is taking its investors on a wild ride.

One of the more popular ways of playing the trend, the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE:SLV) was up by as much as 5%, taking the week’s gains into double-digit territory.

TFN Strategic Trader subscribers love the action. Our call options are worth 66% more this afternoon than they were this morning.

The juicy story

Now, I realize you come to TFN sight looking for more than the usual take on the day’s news. Fortunately, our friends over in Russia are creating more than enough action to feed our appetite for story material.

As if the government-centric action unfolding around the Chinese commodity market was not enough to prove my prediction and profit potential of the “Commodities Carry Trade,” the Russian government is stepping into the ring to create some action on its own.

Unable to secure a firm economic future through normal economic means, Putin is “calling” for the country’s banks to start buying Mechel’s (NYSE:MTL) debt. There are also rumors of strong tax breaks heading towards the large Russian miner.

Not only is this yet another wrinkle in my Commodity Carry Trade theory, it helps prove that the effort truly is becoming a global phenomenon.

With their economies weak and the world’s banking industry even weaker, governments are quickly turning to the commodities market for their financial security.

Why invest in paper backed by a desperate government when you can invest in a commodity the world will need no matter what happens in the coming years?

No questioning the profit potential

While there are lots of facets affecting this trade, one thing that is certain is it will be extremely bullish for the commodities market.

We are seeing a mere glimpse of things to come.

Once demand surpassed production… stand back. Prices will soar.

I have a fantastic way to take advantage of this situation, but I absolutely cannot give it away to a wide audience.

Its value was up by nearly 50% today with a trading volume of just 287 trades. Imagine what would happen if thousands of eager investors suddenly jumped in.

If you want me to email you with the trade to make, just click here.

Finally, just to prove there is an exception to every rule, natural gas prices are hitting yet another new low today, dropping the to a paltry $2.50 per million BTUs.

Could it be that foreign investors want nothing to do with an American-based economy? Or is the bearish action a result of the growing inventory glut across the globe?

Now that some of the world’s most powerful governments are getting in on the action, the commodity trade is not going anywhere anytime soon.

This is exciting stuff that is going to drastically change the commodities industry. The situation has profit opportunity written all over it.

I say we take advantage of it.

Source: Russia’s Maneuvering Boosts the Commodities Market

Here’s how…

In this case, I’m assuming that you’re short on Yamana and are trying to manage the position in order to not take a big loss in case it moves against you.

The way to do this would be to buy out-of-the money call options to protect you against any sharp moves up. This is like insurance. You’ll lose a little bit of money, but your downside will be capped once the option goes in-the-money.

The problem here is that if Yamana trades sideways, you’ll lose on the call option and would have to buy more as each one expires. The way around this would be to buy a LEAP call option, but it will be more expensive and eat away at your potential profits.

But what if you want to “go deep?”

Buying Short-Term Options Is A Sucker’s Bet

Here’s another question:

“Please explain the benefits of buying deep-in-the-money options.”

The buyer stands a lesser chance of benefiting than the seller, since the underlying shares must rise in order for the buyer to make money.

On the other hand, the seller can either have Yamana stay at the same price, move up, or move down to make money. Just as long as it’s not by more than his cost.

So what prompts buyers to buy options? Simple… they’re gambling and wish to spend a little bit of money, as opposed to buying the shares. They’re betting on a strong move up, but will unfortunately lose out 70% to 80% of the time. That’s why we don’t buy short-term options. Because doing so is basically saying that we can predict where Yamana will be by expiration in a few weeks or months.

What To Do When Your Options Expire

Finally, here’s another question – a two-parter:

Part 1: Whenever I read about covered calls strategies, there never seem to be much information of what to do after expiration. For example, if the shares get called away or increase in share price, do we buy the same shares again? And do we still sell deep-in-the-money calls then?

It depends on your goals. For us, when we’re using the deep in the money strategy, the objective IS to get called away every time since we are looking to own the shares at lower levels. However, if you’re looking to own the shares and continuously sell calls, then you would buy back the calls the day before expiration, taking advantage of all the premium you have captured from the expiration of time value and volatility. Then you would sell another option with either a higher strike and further out. This is called “rolling” your trade.

Part 2: If the shares don’t get called away, due to a drop in the share price, do we sell covered calls again, except at a lower strike price in order to get a good premium? Or do we sell out-the-money calls now (but the premium is lower).

With the strategy we use, we always try to sell options at the same strike price. So if the shares are lower than the strike price and we hold on to them, we’d then sell options at the same strike price and lower our cost even more. Our goal is to own the shares for zero or negative cost.

If you want to go out-of-the-money, you’re now engaging in a pure long strategy, which is not the goal of deep-in-the-money investing. The worst case is that the shares fall well below the strike and your cost. In this case you can either book the loss, or if you’re investing in a very good company, you just hold the shares until they recover. This happens about 20% to 25% of the time.

This is also the reason why you should only invest in companies that you truly do want to own… because sometimes you’ll end up owning them.

Good investing,

Karim Rahemtulla

Source: Why You Shouldn’t Buy Short-Term Options

In my column, I used the example of Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY), showing you how to reduce your cost when buying stocks – and thereby increasing your upside potential if the shares move higher.

Today, we’re going to kick things up a notch and explain how you can cleverly take the same covered call strategy and add a twist, by using deep-in-the-money covered calls. When you do so, you can achieve more consistent returns over time, while also protecting your capital.

Simply put, I’m going to focus on mitigating risk…

Getting Deep-In-The-Money… Even When Your Stocks Fall

With a conventional covered call strategy, you buy regular shares of a stock and then sell a call option against them, whose strike price is higher than the current share price. Your aim is that the shares will move higher and will get called away at expiration for a profit.

While this does happen, it doesn’t occur as often as you might think. Plus, it usually only happens during an upward moving market.

However, with the deep-in-the-money (DITM) covered call strategy I’m focusing on today, we’re not expecting the shares to move higher. In fact, we don’t even need the stock to trade higher in order for us to make money. It can actually go lower (sometimes much lower) and we’ll still make money.

Pretty compelling, right?

In short, what we’re seeking is safety. And to get it, we need to employ a strategy that protects us much more often than not.

Deep-In-The-Money Calls: A 75% Win Rate Over 13 Years

So how about a win/loss ratio of 75%? That’s the performance the deep-in-the-money strategy recorded over the past 13 years that I’ve used it. That means we’ve only lost money or broken even 2.5 times out of 10. At all other times, we’ve made money, usually notching up market-beating returns.

Just yesterday, in fact, in my Strategic Income service, we closed out two winning positions – 13% on Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and 33% on Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) – positions we initiated before the market’s collapse.

Here’s how it works, using the Yamana Gold example again. Recall that in last week’s example, we bought Yamana under $9 and sold the $10 (out-of-the-money) calls against our position.

Using Deep-In-The-Money Covered Calls On Yamana

This time, we’re going to buy the same Yamana shares. But instead of selling the $10 calls, we go deep-in-the-money instead.

• Buy 1,000 shares of Yamana at $9.50 – a total outlay of $9,500.

• Sell 10 contracts of the January 2010 $9 calls (AUY-AL). Trading at $1.75 per contract, you receive proceeds of $1,750 (remember that each contract contains 100 shares, so it’s $1.75 multiplied by 100 = $175. Then $175 multiplied by 10 = $1,750).

• Your cost for Yamana shares is now $7.75 ($9.50 minus $1.75) – a full 18% below the current price. This is the crucial number. If Yamana closes above $7.75, you’ll be profitable.

• If Yamana closes above $9 at expiration, you’ll make 16%. You arrive at this number in this way…$9 (strike price) minus $7.75 (cost) = $1.25 (profit).
  $1.25 divided by $7.75 = 16%.

  If the stock moves higher, your returns are capped at 16%, regardless of where it goes.

• Even if Yamana shares stay at today’s level, you’ll still make 16%. So you have an additional chance of profiting from the trade, versus just one with a straight long strategy, which requires the shares to move higher.

Additionally, you reduce your cost of ownership in Yamana to $7.75.

Basically, you’re saying that you’re willing to own Yamana at $7.75 – 18% below current prices. But if you don’t get the shares at that price, then you want to be paid for trying – something that happens nearly 80% of the time.

Key Points to Remember When Using DITM Covered Calls

Here are a few things to remember whenever using deep-in-the-money covered calls:

• You can execute a deep-in-the-money covered call strategy in any trading account.
• If you do end up with the shares, you can sell additional calls against your position to reduce your cost even further. The goal is to own the shares for zero dollars or even a negative cost over time.
• Always make sure you employ position sizing – i.e. never put too much in a single investment.
• At expiration, if the shares are trading above your strike price, they’ll be automatically taken from your account.

Source: Deep In The Money Covered Calls: Lower Cost, Risk & Win 75% Of The Time

Shares of Crowflight Mines added C$0.065 to close at C$0.305 after the company announced that commercial production has started at it Bucko Lake nickel mine in Manitoba.

Arcus Development Group got a boost after Atac Resources granted Arcus an option to acquire a 50% interest in the Green Gulch, Touleary, Dan Man and Shamrock gold prospects, collectively referred to as the Dawson gold project. The Green Gulch claims are wholly surrounded by Underworld Resources White Gold discovery property. Arcus added C$0.05 to close at C$0.13, while Atac lost C$0.025 to close at C$0.325.

The deals continue to flow but the overall market still seems to be getting tired after its strong run up over the past few months. We shall see what Thursday trading has in store.
Source: Resource Stock Roundup: Thursday, June 11th, 2009

The U.S. Federal Reserve had been expanding the money supply more rapidly than output for more than a decade, since a policy change in early 1995. That’s why the U.S. economy underwent a series of bubbles, from stocks in 1996-2000 to housing in 2002-2007 to commodities in 2006-2008. Then, when the inevitable crisis hit in September 2008, the Fed began expanding the money supply even more rapidly.

In the six months to March 2, the St. Louis Fed’s measure the St. Louis Fed’s Money of Zero Maturity (MZM), the nearest we can get to the old M3, rose at an annual rate of 16.2%, while the M2 money supply rose at an annual rate of 15.9% (the Fed has stopped reporting the old M3, the best measure of broad money growth). Since price inflation was low during that period and the economy was contracting, almost all that extra money has been pumped straight into the economy.

While the global economy is collapsing, all the extra money will have little inflationary effect. In the United States, however, evidence is building that the economy is approaching the bottom. Consider, for instance, that:

• After several months of decline, the Institute for Supply Management indices were more or less flat in the current month;

• February retail sales – excluding automobiles – were up 0.7%; January non-auto retail sales also being revised upwards to plus 1.6%. We may still have a few months of decline to go, but it seems increasingly likely that the U.S. economy will bottom out around the middle of the year – although the ongoing banking problems and huge budget deficits are virtually certain to prevent a rapid economic rebound. As we’ve said repeatedly, once the economy bottoms out, however, the additional infused capital is likely to serve as a serious inflationary catalyst.

Since September, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has repeatedly warned of the dangers of sustained deflation – and not just a few months of falling prices (which we got in the latter part of last year, thanks chiefly to declining commodity prices), but overall price declines over a prolonged period.

What’s the Market Telling Us?

Recent price statistics make it abundantly clear that deflationary dangers just don’t exist. Both the core consumer price index and the core producer price index were up 0.2% in February, and are well above their levels of February 2008. Notably, one of the major factors was a 1.3% jump in the price of apparel, one import that has been holding prices down for the last decade. In other words, rather than the sustained deflation Bernanke warned about, the latest price figures suggest that we should actually be concerned about inflation, which is clearly starting to accelerate.

Indeed, both the unprecedented budget deficits and the very rapid money supply growth point to an inflation rate of perhaps 10% per annum by the middle of 2010. The latest price-and-output figures suggest that any contrary tendency has disappeared. And that points to a strong likelihood that gold may be due for an additional upward run, which may be quite sharp and happen quite quickly.

The gold market underscored the veracity of my scenario in a very clear fashion yesterday (Thursday): Gold posted its biggest gain in six months after the Fed’s plan to buy debt hammered the U.S. dollar and reignited inflationary fears. Gold futures for April delivery actually jumped $69.70 an ounce, or 7.8%, to reach $958.80.

The yellow metal reached a record high of $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17, 2008 – a year ago this week – when U.S. rate cuts sent the greenback to an all-time low against the euro. Gold prices subsequently declined in concert with most other commodities. It’s up 8.4% so far this year, according to Bloomberg News.

If the hedge funds pile into gold, they will overwhelm the physical gold market, in which 2008’s mine output of 2,407 tons and other supply of 1,061 tons had a value of only about $98 billion at recent prices of approximately $900 per ounce. Gold’s peak price in 1980 of $875 was equivalent to $2,300 in today’s money; it is by no means impossible that the price of gold could soar well beyond that level.

Hedge fund interest in gold was demonstrated Tuesday by the hedge-fund billionaire John A. Paulson, who was probably 2007-2008’s most successful investor, thanks to a strategy to short housing assets that generated profits of more than $10 billion. Now Paulson has gone and bought 11.3% of gold miner AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (ADR: AU) for $1.28 billion. Paulson’s on a hot streak, so there must be a good chance some of his rich buddies will follow him into the sector; that will inevitably shift the market considerably.

The Yellow Metal Hat Trick: Three Ways to Score From Gold’s Gains

There are three ways to play gold, and you should look at all of them:

• Go for the Gold: Of the three ways to play gold, the first is to buy gold outright, either in bars, or though the gold-linked, exchange-traded fund (ETF) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). Today, GLD itself holds more than 1,000 ounces of gold, and has a market capitalization of $31 billion. The fund’s price fluctuates in concert with the price of gold, which adds a small mount of risk. On the other hand, however, buying this ETF is more convenient than buying gold bars directly, because the fund dispenses with the accompanying storage problems that comes with actually owning physical gold.

• Bet that Silver Sizzles: The price of silver generally moves in line with gold, but is currently at around $13.50, below its normal historic relationship to the gold price of about 1:30, and therefore possibly offers more upside potential (in 1980, silver peaked at $50 per ounce, equivalent to about $140 in today’s money.) That can be done through the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), which works in a similar manner to GLD, and which has a market capitalization of $3.5 billion.

• Go Deep: Third, you can follow Paulson and buy gold mining shares. I actually don’t like Paulson’s choice much; AngloGold made a loss in 2008 because of inept hedging and is mainly in South Africa, whose political risk I don’t care for. However, your big advantage over Paulson is that you’re presumably not so rich that you have to deploy your money $1.28 billion at a time. Thus, you can buy on the ordinary share market some of the other mines that are cheaper, rather than having to do a special deal with a company like the Anglo American PLC (ADR: AAUK), the British mining giant that sold Paulson the AngloGold shares from its own stake in that company.

A Look at Two Top Miners

Gold mines had a 2008 that was less profitable than you might expect. The price of gold was essentially flat over the year, while the price of oil soared to a peak in July, affecting miners’ costs badly, since fuel represents 25% or more of a mining firm’s total expenses. Only in the fourth quarter, as fuel prices declined and gold prices rose, did mining economics improve – but, even then, many miners were badly affected by write-offs in their copper operations, where prices had collapsed after a long bull market.

However, the good news is that gold prices have risen by almost 10% in the 2009 first quarter from the final quarter of last year, while fuel prices have declined even more; hence, the quarterly results to be announced in April and May could be surprisingly juicy.

So if you’re going to look at actual miners, here are two to consider carefully:

Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) is the largest and financially strongest gold producer, with a market capitalization of $29 billion, reserves of 124.6 million ounces of gold (plus copper and silver), and operations in North America, South America, Australasia and Africa. It took a fourth-quarter charge of $779 million – because of its copper operations – but was otherwise profitable in 2008, with revenue rising 10%. For 2009, it should benefit from rising gold prices and declining costs; it currently sells on a prospective Price/Earnings ratio of 13.7, but of course as gold prices rise, earnings will rise on a leveraged basis.

Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY) is an expanding gold producer with a $6.8 billion market capitalization that made an unexpectedly good profit in the fourth quarter of 2008, and that is expanding both production and reserves (currently 19.4m ounces) with operations in Canada and Latin America. Its expansion increases its likely benefit from rising gold prices; Yamana’s shares currently trade at a forward P/E of about 12, but earnings should rise sharply if gold prices rise.

Source: Three Ways to Profit as Inflation Causes Gold Prices to Increase

This from Karim:

President Obama has all-but sealed the fate of the U.S. dollar.

In doing so, however, his policies – no matter whether they’re forced upon him or deliberate – have opened the floodgates for gold and gold stocks.

In fact, they’re setting the stage for the biggest rally in gold’s history.

Over the past several months, we’ve told you why you should buy gold and highlighted one of the best gold indicators you can use to determine when to buy gold. But today, we’re simply going to show you how to profit from the yellow metal…

Three Reasons Why Gold Is Headed Higher

Okay, so Obama hasn’t specifically said, “Buy physical gold,” but  he’s certainly saying it with his actions instead. Here’s why the metal is headed higher…

1. The Printing Press: The U.S. government is printing a massive amount of money every day. In fact, we’re up to $2 trillion since last November. But here are the questions we should be asking…

~ Where’s this money coming from?
~ What is supporting this huge flow of new money?

America can print money today because the world believes that one day we’ll pay it back. But we haven’t paid down our debt in decades! In fact, over the past 30 years, our debt has increased 10-fold. (We have paid the interest though and that is better than most countries).

However, each new dollar we print is like adding a tiny little bit to the price of gold. And we are printing trillions of dollars.

1. The Currency Fear Factor: Gold is going higher because people are frightened that they won’t allow themselves to fall into the dollar/yen/pound/euro trap again.

For example, did you know that gold is at new highs against the Pound and Euro? Because those two currencies have fallen sharply against the dollar, the price of gold in both currencies is much higher than the last time gold was at this level (about this time last year).

1. More Educated Investors: With the huge amount of upheaval that the economy and stock market has faced over the past year or so, we now have a greater number of educated investors, who can plainly see that gold is the asset to hold. We wondered out loud why this wasn’t the case back in October, as investors seemed to ignore the dire news coming out each day and gold prices were stagnant. They’re not ignoring it now – and readers who took our advice to buy gold are doing very well.

But because more investors have jumped on the gold bandwagon now is exactly why you should not be buying gold right now.

That is, of course, unless you’re using a strategy that allows you to make some money or reduce your cost if the shares move down. I’ll give you an example in a minute…

Mind The Gap: Why You Should Set A Buy Alert At The $800 Level

Since mid November 2008, gold prices have pretty much moved up in a straight line.

Be warned: Like any investment, this cannot last forever.

Gold will sell off for a variety of reasons: Because they need money more than jewelry… because China and India are a little bit poorer… because investors sell for technical reasons.

Gold needs to fill a gap on a chart that goes back to the $800 level. And that is when you should buy gold. But not physical gold. Let me explain…

When Gold Hits $800 Again, Here Are Four Gold Investments You Should Buy

Rather than buying physical gold – as many people like to do – you should instead buy shares in gold mining companies. This includes…

~ Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)
~ Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY)
~ Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX)
~ Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM)

You could even buy a silver-based play like Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW).

Here’s the thing with physical gold: Unless you’re counting on it to come in handy during something like a government coup where you need to flee the country (in which case, you’d better take a donkey with you, as it will be a heavy load), there are disadvantages to owning physical gold. Ones that result in less money for you.

For example, physical gold is difficult to store. It doesn’t pay dividends. And you can’t apply professional investment strategies like covered call writing to gain additional income.

Most importantly, gold shares move up by a factor of between two times and three times more than the percentage move for gold. So if gold prices move up by 10%, you can expect gold shares to move 20% to 30%, depending on what their cost is.

Everyone Is Buying Gold… But Not Everyone Is A Pro: Here’s The Pro Way To Profit From It

Okay, so once you’ve bought some gold mining shares, how do you start milking the investment for bigger profits than most other investors? I’ll show you…

The bottom line is that not only do you want to capture the price appreciation of your gold shares, you also want to sell call options against your stock to reduce your cost and take money off the table. Here’s how it works…

Let’s say you buy shares of Silver Wheaton for $7. Using a covered call strategy, where you sell one call option for every 100 shares you own, you can get back almost 6% in cash over the next seven months – and still have the chance to more than double your money.

Think of it as a free dividend that no one else knows about.

That’s the kind of stuff we do all the time in my Strategic Income service and every so often in our Xcelerated Profits Report (XPR) newsletter.

Gold Is Going Higher… Let It Take You Along For The Ride

The bottom line is this: Gold is going to move higher. Ultimately, much higher.

There will be opportunities to buy the metal along the way – and you’re going to hear a lot of people crowing about those opportunities.

But what they probably won’t tell you is that there’s a way of not just buying gold, but buying it through a simple strategy that pays you back and also mitigates some risk.

Understand though, that gold is not going to shoot to the moon tomorrow. That’s why we’ve taken a defensive posture on two of the gold stocks I mentioned above. One is a covered call play on Goldcorp, and the other is a spread play on Yamana Gold that has allowed us to take 95% of our money off the table, yet still left us with the chance to make over 4,000% on the money we have at risk.

The question is: Are you just going to “buy gold” because everyone else is? Or are you going to really profit from gold like the pros do?

Source: Obama Says, “Buy Gold”… Three Reasons Not To Listen

Gold hit two historic milestones in 2008. First, it hit its all-time high of $1,030 an ounce in early March.

Just three months later, the price of gold for December delivery fell to $681 an ounce, a 21-month low and 33.9% drop from its record high.

Most gold bugs were equal parts heartbroken and puzzled. Global stock markets tanked alongside the world’s biggest economies. But so did gold, which is widely considered to be a safe haven investment when everything else in spiraling south.

However, Money Morning Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson- an investment banker with more than 25 years’ experience on Wall Street and Fleet Street and leading expert on the international financial markets- understood perfectly.

“Gold is not a safe haven against recession,” said Hutchinson. “It’s a safe haven against inflation.”

In the past year, commodities prices across the board skyrocketed- especially oil, which hit a record high $147 a barrel. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all hit record highs, as well.

That tightened household and corporate budgets, and was a primary reason why the U.S. economy walked backwards over the third-quarter finish line with -0.3% annualized growth. It was the first quarter of what most economists believe will be the nation’s first recession since 2001.

However, the inflation epidemic that preceded it- and arguably contributed to it- has waned significantly, as global demand for raw materials has slumped.

Prices for staple foods such as corn, soybeans and wheat have all come down from their record highs in near tandem.

Corn futures are down nearly 50% from their summer high of $8 per bushel. The same is true of soybeans and wheat, as each have lost roughly half their value. In fact, wheat hit a 16-month low in mid-October.

As most of us noticed, gas prices have fallen 48% from their July 17 high of $4.114 a gallon.

And not coincidentally, gold has fallen 22% in that same time frame.

However, this report examines the pending “re-re-correction” of commodities- the slow and steady rise of commodities after the roller coaster of record-high inflationary highs and a sudden breakneck fall below real value- to find the charted path of gold prices in 2009.

But it also reveals another wild card inflationary indicator that Hutchinson believes carry gold prices to $1,500 an ounce by the end of 2009…

Two Catalysts For Gold’s Climb

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Oct. 10 Crop Production Report said acreage for a handful of staple food commodities has shrunk:

• Corn acreage fell 1.2%.
• Soybean acreage dropped 1.4%.
• Canola acreage dropped 1.9%.
• Sunflower acreage shrank 0.8%.
• And acreage of dry edible beans fell 0.7%.

That naturally translates to higher prices because a squeezed supply increases demand, especially from the growing economies and populations in China, India and Latin America.

But Hutchinson believes another caveat in the cracks of our economy’s recovery will spell a sharp rebound in gold prices… one that could catapult it to $1,500 by the end of 2009.

“The government is pumping money in so many banks, and that money has to come out somewhere,” Hutchinson said.

The U.S. government’s historic bailout pumped $700 billion into its failing banking system… all to give banks back the capital they squandered in doling out defaulting loans.

Since September 2007, Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve have cut interest rates nine times- from 5.25% down to the current 1.0% rate- to increase bank-to-bank lending and bank-to-consumer lending.

“The government is pumping money in so many banks, and that money has to come out somewhere,” Hutchinson said.

And by the time is does, food prices should begin ticking upward, adding another set of thrusters to gold prices.

“Everybody thinks that because we’re having a horrible recession, we’re not to go have inflation. I think that’s probably wrong,” Hutchinson said. “I think gold has quite good hidden-store value.”

Should gold reach Hutchinson’s top-range price of $1,500 an ounce, it won’t be its real value. Just like how its deflated price now doesn’t reflect real value either.

Rather, $1,500 an ounce would be the marked-up price caused by another inflation-fueled investor flood into the yellow metal.

“As gold goes up, it gets more popular and investors start piling into it,” Hutchinson said.

And if gold gets anywhere near the $1,500 mark, sell. Prices that high will likely fall back or plateau as the Federal Reserve begins raising interest rates and strengthening the U.S. dollar, Hutchinson said.

Five Ways to Play Bottom-Basement Gold

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s first look at five ways to play bottom-basement gold.

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)- formerly StreetTracks Gold- is a fund whose shares are intended to parallel the movement of gold prices. Since gold prices started falling along with gas prices, SPDR Gold Trust has stayed within a 0.5% margin of gold prices. This ETF eliminates any investor concern over storage and delivery while giving them exactly what they want- gold.

Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) has 27 mines, mostly in North America and South America, and is developing or exploring 11 more. With a market cap of more than $20 billion, it has considerably more liquidity than most mining companies. Barrick is primarily a gold miner, but it also has copper and zinc mining operations. As far as investors are concerned, there are two ways to look at that: It’s not a pure play, per se, but then again, this is a company stock not a brick of bullion. Also, having operations other than gold can help stabilize the company’s bottom line in case problems arise at a gold mine.

Denver-based Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) is primarily a gold producer with operations in the U.S., Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. Its reserves are hovering around 86.5 million ounces. Like Barrick, this is a mining stock play, and it subject to market swings on top of fluctuations of gold prices. That can be a significant tailwind, especially if you believe the stock market has bottomed out or is close to doing so. Hutchinson- forever a value-minded investor- warned that Newmont might be a little too pricey now. Investors may want to wait for the company’s stock price to settle before getting in.

Hutchinson thinks the best value for a gold mining stock can be found in Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY), another Toronto-based company that’s small now, but has rapidly expanding production. 

But for investors who just want gold- not an ETF or stock- the best avenue is an EverBank Select Metals Account: EverBank accounts has a minimum deposit that is 98% lower than its competitors, and its commission costs are up to 86% lower than other metals’ brokers and bullion banks. It offers two types of gold accounts: Unallocated (Your purchased gold is pooled with that of other investors, eliminating storage and maintenance costs. $5,000 minimum deposit.) and Allocated (You directly own the gold you purchase, held in your own private account. $7,500 minimum deposit.) Both types of accounts can be set up 24/7 online. But if you prefer the phone, call 866-326-6241, and be sure to give them the code 12608 when setting up an account.

We should point out that the publisher of Money Morning has a marketing relationship with EverBank, but that’s because its products are best in show.

Source: Outlook 2009: Five Ways to Play Gold’s Steady Advance

The analysts were confident about valuations going forward, especially long term. Company execs swore their deals didn’t need any money, while brokers and bankers alike had a gleam in their eye about the financing opportunities amid the debris — even a sense of urgency. One broker — my former business partner, actually — wondered whether the fundamentals for gold have ever been as bullish in our lives.

The answer was unambiguous. The market has answered too.

Newmont and Freeport this week filed documents in conjunction with potential underwritings by J.P. Morgan (NYSE:JPM) and Citigroup (NYSE:C), in the amounts of $1.2 billion and $750 million, respectively, totaling just under $2 billion. Kinross sold UBS about $400 million worth of stock last week. Lundin’s Red Back also negotiated a bought deal worth about $150 million with a group of underwriters led by Cormark Securities and BMO last week. Earlier this month, Yamana (NYSE:AUY) closed a $135 million share offer and borrowed $200 million, while in December, Agnico-Eagle (NYSE:AEM) raised some $300 million from stock issuances after borrowing $300 million a few months earlier (in September). Where’s the deflation?!

The money is coming into the gold sector. The Canadian National Post reported last week that gold miners are “raising cash with ease… many generalist funds have jumped onto the precious metals bandwagon.”

Many juniors have also reported financings where needed. Some are turning them away. Share issues are just too dilutive down here, and any company that doesn’t need money to survive 2009 is prudent to refuse.

Asked about the ability of miners to raise cash in this environment, the analysts at the podium at the Cambridge House investment conference in Vancouver all agreed there is always funding for assets that have sound economic fundamentals. They finance themselves. In fact, in my experience, it is often better to buy the shares of companies with good assets that need cash than companies with cash and no assets, even if the latter are trading at a discount to cash breakup, and even if funding is relatively scarce. Companies with a lot of cash can sometimes get lazy and put up their feet, or insiders waste it — or even steal it, if they lack integrity. Cash itself yields nothing. It’s a depreciating good, as you know. It’s one thing to buy a company at below cash breakup and then break it up and keep the extra cash. It is another thing to invest in a company at cash breakup or less. We invest to earn profits.

If you want to buy cash at a discount, buy a T-bill or term deposit. Or else, you’re just sharing in potential losses due to debasement, negligence, debauchery or theft. That doesn’t mean you should avoid the deals that have a lot of cash — just that’s not what you’re investing in. You are investing either in the underlying asset, which yields profit (i.e., more cash in the future) or management’s abilities.

Ultimately, sound “assets” will hold their value better than idle cash in an inflationary environment.

It is obvious that through this crisis, despite some turbulence, gold prices have held up better than just about any other asset, commodity or currency (other than dollars and yen) we may imagine. From the point of view of a gold miner, this is a very good thing. Even better is that the price of oil, a significant cost input for miners, has fallen a lot relative to gold. This is bullish for margins. Also bullish for gold miners is that the slump may have freed up capital and labor for the development of gold assets, where previous scarcity drove up capex estimates so much that some projects had to be abandoned.

The combination of strong investment demand for gold and lower input costs makes gold stocks one of the only sectors poised for any growth in operating results (i.e., earnings and cash flows) in 2009.

On the other hand, the ratio of gold prices to many of the commodities, and the averages, is at more than a 10-year extreme, and it is not sustainable. As a matter of fact, I think it could be a drag on gold prices. Gold is the only commodity challenging the resistance point in its post-March 2008 downtrend.

It looks poised to break out, and the other commodities appear to be bottoming.

However, while the extremity lasts, it could cap gold prices.

My feeling is that the gold ratios (i.e., gold prices relative to other assets, commodities and currencies) are going to ebb in the short term while commodity prices catch up a little. I continue to think that this catch-up phase will include a rally in stock prices, and a general recovery in risk appetite, even if short-lived. While it lasts, it is likely to shave a few safe-haven points off gold. It hasn’t started yet.

I’m not looking for new lows in gold on this… just some backfilling and consolidation while the other commodities and assets catch up some. This could happen over the next few months. Then look out.

Regardless, however, I expect gold shares to benefit from the general return of risk appetite too.

That is, but for some ebb and flow, I expect gold shares to do well whether gold goes up or not — so long as it doesn’t go down too much. As long as it holds the $800-850 level, gold shares are a buy.

It is still a buyer’s market. Many gold shares are still factoring in a gold price of less than $800. But don’t be hasty.

Rather, be deliberate, which means don’t waver from the plan or your conviction on dips. Buy them. Try not to buy on days when everyone else is, like today, but make sure you have a shopping list and just pick away at it when you get the dip.

Investors should always wade in (and out) of their positions, rather than jumping in and out — as ole Jesse Livermore used to do. They called him the “Boy Plunger.” He made big on the way up and lost big on the way down. There are lots of folks like that on Wall Street. They’re big gamblers. You could say the Fed made them. They don’t care about the black swan, because they believe that should they lose, they will just win again tomorrow.

Keep in mind, though, you’re not buying blue chips here. Small-cap miners (and options) are extremely volatile and risky.

Remember this is for 10-20% of your financial assets — whatever you can sleep at night with. Some people can sleep with more — some can’t sleep anyway. I guess the analogy doesn’t apply to insomniacs, but you get the gist.

Good trading,

Ed Bugos
for The Daily Reckoning

Source: Gold Ratios: Bearish for Gold Prices, Bullish for Gold Shares