The first public retirement pension scheme was created by Otto von Bismarck in 1880 Germany. Fifty years later, during the Great Depression, Franklin Roosevelt followed suit in the United States. As we’ve seen, the number of people expected to reach the retirement age of 65 was not considered to pose a threat to future funding.

They are called the Echo Boom generation and by now represent over 70 million consumers in the United States. This year, the four-million strong segment born in 1990 finished high school and scattered across the nation’s campuses. And every year hereafter, another four million will be hitting the road… literally… in cars provided to them by the most indulgent parental generation in history.

Since bicycles are a pain, especially for cross-country drives, and part of the parental generation’ dream is to cut down on your second job as unpaid taxidrivers, I believe a combination of winter attrition, 16th and 18th birthdays, high school graduations, and college-bound freshmen will kick-start the used-car business in the second quarter of 2009.