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		<title>The Global Financial Crisis Will Cost Western Banks a Share of Future China Profits</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-global-financial-crisis-will-cost-western-banks-a-share-of-future-china-profits/11560</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Jan 2009 17:34:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Patalon III</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>In mid November, Bank of American Corp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=bac" target="_blank">BAC</a>) ponied  up more than $7 billion to nearly double its already existing investment in the  state-owned <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=SHA%3A601939" target="_blank">China Construction Bank Corp</a>., a move that gave the biggest  U.S. bank a 19% stake in China’s second-largest lender.</p>
<p>Less than two months later, however, BofA sold $2.8 billion of its shares in the Beijing-based China Construction Bank, a jarring about face made necessary by the U.S. bank’s need to raise cash.</p>
<p>And Bank of America isn’t the only Western lender  making such a move.</p>
<p>Just this week, the Royal Bank of Scotland Group  PLC (ADR: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=rbs" target="_blank">RBS</a>), Great Britain’s  biggest government-controlled bank, sold its $2.3 billion stake in the Bank of China Ltd. (Pink: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=bachf" target="_blank">BACHF</a>), the No. 3 Chinese&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In mid November, Bank of American Corp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=bac" target="_blank">BAC</a>) ponied  up more than $7 billion to nearly double its already existing investment in the  state-owned <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=SHA%3A601939" target="_blank">China Construction Bank Corp</a>., a move that gave the biggest  U.S. bank a 19% stake in China’s second-largest lender.<span id="more-11560"></span></p>
<p>Less than two months later, however, BofA sold $2.8 billion of its shares in the Beijing-based China Construction Bank, a jarring about face made necessary by the U.S. bank’s need to raise cash.</p>
<p>And Bank of America isn’t the only Western lender  making such a move.</p>
<p>Just this week, the Royal Bank of Scotland Group  PLC (ADR: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=rbs" target="_blank">RBS</a>), Great Britain’s  biggest government-controlled bank, sold its $2.3 billion stake in the Bank of China Ltd. (Pink: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=bachf" target="_blank">BACHF</a>), the No. 3 Chinese lender &#8211; also because RBS needed to replenish its capital position. That stake represented 4.3% of the Bank of China’s outstanding shares.</p>
<p>RBS, BofA and UBS AG (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ubs" target="_blank">UBS</a>) &#8211; all early “strategic investors” in China’s biggest banks &#8211; have now each trimmed their investments in those banks, thanks to the expiration of restrictive “lockup periods.” UBS said last month that it had sold its entire 1.33% stake in the Bank of China.<br />
More divestitures are expected.</p>
<p>“Undoubtedly, <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123135303986861431.html?mod=todays_us_money_and_investing" target="_blank">foreign  banks will continue to expand their footprints in China</a>,” Zhao Xijun,  deputy director of the School of Finance at Renmin University of China, told <strong><em>The  Wall Street Journal</em></strong>. “But they will be more focused on developing their  own businesses, rather than buying a Chinese lender.”</p>
<p>Cash-strapped Western banks &#8211; desperate to raise money in the face of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression &#8211; are paring their stakes in top China banks. That will bring in needed capital today but at the cost of lost future profits tomorrow in an economy that’s the world’s fastest-growing, and a market in which a burgeoning middle class figures to create all sorts of lucrative businesses for players with the ability to stay in the game.<br />
On China’s end, the divestitures are forcing Beijing to reassess its strategy of using foreign know-how to assemble a world-class banking system.</p>
<p>Since 2005, foreign financial institutions such as Bank of America and the RBS have pumped more than $25 billion into Chinese banks as part of a high-dollar game of quid pro quo engineered by the Red Dragon’s regulators: Foreign investors would gain access to China’s banking market, and in return would show China’s banks how to make money in a free-market environment.</p>
<p>As these developments demonstrate, the global financial crisis continues to worsen, meaning the bailout strategies used so far haven’t had the desired benefit. BofA received a $15 billion infusion from the U.S. Treasury Department’s $250 billion “recapitalization” effort. The Edinburgh-based RBS received $29 billion in bailout money of its own after taking $10.2 billion in write-downs in 2008.</p>
<p>As a <strong><em><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Money Morning</a></em></strong> investigation has  demonstrated, <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/12/05/banking-buyouts/" target="_blank">many  U.S. banks used bailout money to go on a global shopping spree</a>, instead of retiring bad debts or boosting lending to businesses and consumers. The payback has been rather quick in some cases.</p>
<p>As the divestments have now demonstrated, the worsening financial crisis is forcing financial institutions to sell promising assets, and to do so at a point when the value of those holdings is probably at or near their nadir.</p>
<p>“For RBS, they don’t really have much choice,”  Samuel Chen, a Hong Kong-based analyst at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=jpm" target="_blank">JPM</a>), told <strong><em>Bloomberg  News</em></strong>. “They would probably rather hold it.”</p>
<p>Indeed, as one analyst said, Western banks are  selling out at prices where they should actually be buying.</p>
<p>“Although the selling by foreign strategic investors may  put some short-term pressure on prices, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&amp;sid=azipl8_DjNQI&amp;refer=asia" target="_blank">bank stocks are undervalued  given their long-term growth prospects</a>,” <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Zhang%0AXi&amp;site=wnews&amp;client=wnews&amp;proxystylesheet=wnews&amp;output=xml_no_dtd&amp;ie=UTF-8&amp;oe=UTF-8&amp;filter=p&amp;getfields=wnnis&amp;sort=date:D:S:d1" target="_blank">Zhang Xi</a>, a  Beijing-based analyst at China Galaxy Securities Co., told <strong><em>Bloomberg  News.</em></strong>. “Now is a good time to buy Bank of China and other big lenders.”</p>
<p>Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AGS" target="_blank">GS</a>) still owns 16.5 billion shares in Industrial &amp; Commercial Bank of China, the world’s largest bank by market value, and has agreed not to sell the shares until after April 28, according to published reports. American Express Co. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=axp" target="_blank">AXP</a>) and Allianz SE (ADR: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AAZ" target="_blank">AZ</a>) are among the  Commercial Bank of China’s other U.S. and European shareholders.</p>
<p>Source: <a class="titleref" rel="bookmark" href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/01/15/global-financial-crisis-2/">The Global Financial Crisis Will Cost Western Banks a Share of Future China Profits</a></p>
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		<title>Central Banks Struggle to Contain Lehman (LEH) Fallout</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Sep 2008 19:20:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason Simpkins</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BACHF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BNPQY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[British pound]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Slowdown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing in China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Simpkins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LEH]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[renminbi]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>The liquidity crisis that began with the collapse of Bear Stearns and has led to the fall of <strong>Lehmen Brothers</strong> (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&#38;chdd=1&#38;chds=1&#38;chdv=1&#38;chvs=maximized&#38;chdeh=0&#38;chdet=1221595200000&#38;chddm=23460&#38;q=NYSE:LEH&#38;ntsp=0" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">LEH</a>) <a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/early-indicators-crisis-goes-global/5437" title="Read more">is spreading</a>. This has prompted foreign central banks to bolster liquidity in domestic markets, reports <strong><a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/author/jason-simpkins"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Jason Simpkins</a></strong>. Even the Bank of China decided to cut its benchmark lending rate. It is its first rate cut in six years. </p>
<p>More from today&#8217;s <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Money Morning</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Central banks around the world, including the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BOE) and the People’s Bank of China, scrambled yesterday (Monday) to shore up liquidity and protect domestic markets against the fallout from the collapse of <strong>Lehman Brothers</strong>.</p>
<p class="entry">The Bank of England and the European Central Bank injected billions of dollars into global money markets&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The liquidity crisis that began with the collapse of Bear Stearns and has led to the fall of <strong>Lehmen Brothers</strong> (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&amp;chdd=1&amp;chds=1&amp;chdv=1&amp;chvs=maximized&amp;chdeh=0&amp;chdet=1221595200000&amp;chddm=23460&amp;q=NYSE:LEH&amp;ntsp=0" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">LEH</a>) <a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/early-indicators-crisis-goes-global/5437" title="Read more">is spreading</a>. This has prompted foreign central banks to bolster liquidity in domestic markets, reports <strong><a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/author/jason-simpkins"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Jason Simpkins</a></strong>. Even the Bank of China decided to cut its benchmark lending rate. It is its first rate cut in six years. <span id="more-5446"></span></p>
<p>More from today&#8217;s <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Money Morning</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Central banks around the world, including the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BOE) and the People’s Bank of China, scrambled yesterday (Monday) to shore up liquidity and protect domestic markets against the fallout from the collapse of <strong>Lehman Brothers</strong>.</p>
<p class="entry">The Bank of England and the European Central Bank injected billions of dollars into global money markets and the Bank of China cut interest rates for the first time in six years and lowered capital reserve requirements for its smaller banks.</p>
<p>The ECB allotted roughly $43 billion (30 billion euros) in a  one-day money-market auction <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=a66zRUefAsnw&amp;refer=home" onclick="s_objectID=" news?pid="20601087&amp;sid=a66zRUefAsnw&amp;refer=home_1" target="_blank">that  was more than three times oversubscribed</a>, Bloomberg News reported. The ECB injected the funds at a rate of 4.25%. The bank also said it would be prepared to take further action if necessary and “stands ready to contribute to orderly market conditions.”</p>
<p>The infusion was virtually identical to action taken by the ECB in August 2007, when the bank offered up $56 billion (40 billion euros) to calm jittery markets. The ECB has put roughly $134 billion (95 billion euros) on the market in the past 13 months, fearful that banks would abandon the interbank lending market and cease lending to one another.</p>
<p>&#8220;<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122146752303935835.html?mod=googlenews_wsj" onclick="s_objectID=" sb122146752303935835.html?mod="googlenews_wsj_1" target="_blank">Sunday’s  events mark a turning point in the crisis</a>, but the fundamental premise is the same as it’s been since last year,&#8221; Michael Schubert, an economist with <strong>Commerzbank AG </strong>(OTC ADR:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=OTC:CRZBY" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="OTC:CRZBY_1" target="_blank">CRZBY</a>) in Frankfurt  told The Wall Street Journal. &#8220;Banks still do  not know how much liquidity they need themselves and there’s even more  uncertainty regarding other banks.&#8221;</p>
<p>The Bank of England said that it would take necessary measures to boost liquidity as well, and lend out an additional $9 billion (5 billion pounds) at a 5% rate over the next several days.</p>
<p>“The Bank of England will be monitoring carefully the conditions in sterling money markets and will take appropriate actions if necessary to stabilize those markets,” the BOE said in a statement.</p>
<p>Like the ECB offer, the BOE loans were oversubscribed, as Banks bid for $42 billion (24 billion pounds). Of that, 20.75% was allocated.</p>
<p>“<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&amp;sid=aMQqwglmDYQk&amp;refer=uk" onclick="s_objectID=" news?pid="20601102&amp;sid=aMQqwglmDYQk&amp;refer=uk_1" target="_blank">This  is significantly oversubscribed</a>,” Philip Shaw, chief economist at <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=LON:INVP" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="LON:INVP_1" target="_blank">Investec</a> Securities in  London, told Bloomberg. “It largely reflects the tension in the money market after the announcements over the weekend. It’s very welcome to see the Bank of England respond with extra liquidity.”</p>
<p>Still, there’s a distinct possibility that the BOE will have to go a step further and cut interest rates if it hopes to restore confidence to the markets and revitalize growth.</p>
<p>The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said yesterday that the BOE should cut its benchmark interest rate from to 4.5% by the end of this year, and to 4% in early 2009. The bank has held the rate steady at 5% since April, intent on taming inflation.  The European Commission said earlier this month that the United Kingdom has already entered a recession, its first since 1991, after gross domestic product (GDP) growth fell flat in the second quarter. The EC predicts GDP will shrink by 0.2% in both the third and fourth quarters.</p>
<p>The CBI said the U.K. economy contracted 0.2% between July and September compared to the same period last year, and would suffer a 0.1% decline in the final quarter of 2008. However, the group was upbeat on the economy’s 2009 prospects.</p>
<p>“<a href="http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9375OE00.htm" onclick="s_objectID=" target="_blank">Having  experienced a rapid loss of momentum in the economy over the first half of 2008</a>, the U.K. may have entered a mild recession that will hopefully prove short lived,&#8221; said CBI Director-General Richard Lambert. &#8220;This is not a return to the 1990s, when job cuts and a slump in demand were far more prolonged.&#8221;</p>
<h3>Bank of China Cuts Rates</h3>
<p>The Bank of China cut its interest rates for the first time in six years yesterday, and reduced the amount banks are required to keep in reserve as Lehman’s collapse roiled credit markets and a depleted global economy weakened the outlook for Chinese exports.</p>
<p>The BOC cut its one-year lending rate to 7.2% from 7.47% and lowered the reserve ratio for the nation’s smallest banks by one percentage point. However, for China’s largest banks (Bank of China Ltd. (PINK: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=PINK%3ABACHF" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="PINK%3ABACHF_1" target="_blank">BACHF</a>), <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=SHA%3A601398" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="SHA%3A601398_1" target="_blank">Industrial and  Commercial Bank of China</a>, <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=7221257" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?cid="7221257_1" target="_blank">Agricultural Bank of China</a>,  and others) the reserve requirement  will remain at 17.5%.</p>
<p>The bank said the measures are intended to “help solve important problems in [the] economy for its continued stable and fast development.”</p>
<p>The People’s Bank has done nothing but raise rates for the past six years, as the economy routinely posted digit growth rates. But an economy that many were beginning to think of as impervious has shown some weakness as of late, and financial turmoil abroad further dampens its outlook.</p>
<p>China’s 10.1% second-quarter expansion was strong, but it was also a drop from the 10.6% growth posted in the first quarter and down substantially from 2007’s 11.9% growth. <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=LON%3ASTAN" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="LON%3ASTAN_1" target="_blank">Standard Chartered Bank</a> has said China’s rate of growth  will slow to 9.9% in 2008 and 8.6% in 2009.</p>
<p>China’s statistics bureau said last week that export growth  slowed to 21.1% year-over-year in August, down from 26.9% in July.</p>
<p>“<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/business/worldbusiness/16centbank.html?_r=1&amp;oref=slogin" onclick="s_objectID=" 16centbank.html?_r="1&amp;oref=slogin_1" target="_blank">There  is an increasing pressure on central banks to act</a>,” Ken Wattret, chief  Europe economist at BNP Paribas SA (OTC ADR: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=OTC%3ABNPQY" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="OTC%3ABNPQY_1" target="_blank">BNPQY</a>), told the New  York Times.</p>
<p>Of course the BOC had room to act, as inflation eased to a rate of 4.9% in August – a 14-month low. The U.S. Federal Reserve and ECB may find the task of reducing rates slightly more difficult.</p>
<p>“The Fed is more likely to cut rates than the ECB,” said Wattret. “What the Fed doesn’t want is a sustained drop in house and equity prices at the same time. The ECB won’t be at the forefront of cutting rates because it remains focused on inflation.”</p></blockquote>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/09/16/central-banks/" onclick="s_objectID=" class="titleref" rel="bookmark">ECB and BOE Inject Billions, Bank of China Cuts Rates as  Central Banks Cope with Lehman Fallout</a></p>
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