No matter which path GM chooses – conventional restructuring or bankruptcy – the U.S. Big Three of GM, Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and Chrysler LLC will have to adjust to the U.S. auto market’s post-financial-crisis “new reality.” Automakers will sell only 10 million cars and trucks in the U.S. market this year, the worst in at least 3 decades – and roughly 38% less than the 16 million vehicles that were sold in the United States annually in recent years before the financial collapse caused an accompanying collapse in auto sales.

Part of the reason for the slump in new vehicle sales is that consumers are increasingly turning to used cars. Pre-owned car sales are up 10% this year over last, as credit availability increases, but buyers focus on affordability. In fact, according to the most-recent report, used-car sales jumped in April, and the trend is expected to continue at least until the middle of the year as pent-up demand for affordable, pre-owned vehicles jacked up the used-vehicle segment of the auto marketplace.

Market Matters

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner put his most optimistic face forward in assessing the progress with the bank bailout plan. Geithner pointed out that the 19 stressed-tested banks have already raised $56 billion in capital [including Bank of America Corp.’s (NYSE: BAC) $13.5 billion stock offering] and several could begin to pay back Trouble Asset Relief Program (TARP) money shortly.  He also indicated that the public-private partnership to remove “toxic” assets from banks’ books should be up and running in the next month-and-a-half, a move that may instill greater confidence in the financial markets.

However, an analysis by The Wall Street Journal rained on Geithner’s parade by estimating that small and mid-sized banks could face losses on bad commercial real estate loans of $100 billion by year-end 2010. A Money Morning investigation of the looming commercial real estate crisis predicted that this sector of the real-estate market would pose major problems for the U.S. economic recovery.

Meanwhile, GMAC LLC may be close to receiving a fresh $7 billion in new (bailout) money as the government continues to seek ways to rescue the auto industry.  GM reached an agreement with its main union (UAW) that would reduce retiree benefits and overall labor costs to make them comparable to those of their foreign rivals.

As another negative earnings season comes to a close, investors searched long and hard for a bright spot – any bright spot.  With most Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies reporting, earnings plunged more than 30% in the first quarter and are on track to fall 13% for the full year, the worst annual performance in six years.

Still, Thomson Reuters PLC (Nasdaq ADR: TRIN) says that a consensus of sell-side analysts projects a 29% increase in earnings in 2010 as cost-cutting measures pay off and relative results begin to look more attractive.

The Lowes Cos. Inc. (NYSE: LOW) reported better-than-expected quarterly profits and raised its outlook for the year, but The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) saw its numbers disappoint investors who were looking for stronger signs from the home improvement giant.  Likewise, Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) reported weaker earnings, and that spawned renewed pessimism for the high-tech sector.

On a brighter note, retailers Sears Holdings Corp. (Nasdaq: SHLD) and Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE: ARO) reported better-than-expected quarterly profits.  Ratings upgrades brought early promise as Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) boosted its forecast on homebuilder Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN); Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) raised its views on McDonalds Corp. (NYSE: MCD); and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) made Bank of America a “Buy.”  However, S&P warned it may downgrade the United Kingdom’s debt below AAA due to ongoing economic obstacles, a development that prompted others to wonder if U.S. securities could face similar dire possibilities.

Crude oil surged past $62 a barrel on lower inventory data and gasoline climbed above $2.36 a gallon heading into the Memorial Day holiday weekend, a far cry from the $3.80 of this time last year – although it was 30 cents higher than late April levels.

Economically Speaking

While Geithner was “spinning” the bailout progress in the most favorable light possible, the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting minutes painted a picture of a more sluggish economy than most had predicted just three months ago.  In fact, the policymakers negatively revised their projections for economic contraction and warned that the unemployment rate could push toward 10% by the end of the year.  Still, central bank Chairman Ben S. Bernanke believes improvements are on the way as the impact of the Obama administration stimulus package aids in the recovery over the year’s second half. Furthermore, the Fed stands prepared to buy more U.S. Treasury and mortgage-related securities should such moves be deemed beneficial.

In the “it could be worse” category, Mexico (-21.5%), Japan (-15.2%), and Germany (-14.4%) each reported severe economic declines (as measured by gross domestic product, or GDP), as these three primary U.S. trading partners suffered the ill effects of the lower domestic demand for foreign-made goods and services.

Though the economic calendar was rather light during the week, some positive signs did emerge from deep within the numbers.  While analysts were surprised by a decline in April housing starts, the losses stemmed from a reduction in apartment activity, and single-family construction actually jumped by almost 3%, its second consecutive positive monthly showing.

Additionally, a private survey of the nation’s construction professionals depicted that homebuilder sentiment soared to its highest level in eight months, another sign that the prolonged housing slump may finally be nearing an end.

Finally, leading economic indicators, a predictive index that forecasts activity for the ensuing six months, turned positive after six straight down months.  Unfortunately, labor continued to struggle as the number of folks who have been receiving unemployment benefits for over a week hit a new record high.  While the economy definitely seems to be moving past the dreaded recession, any recovery will be limited as long as the labor picture remains weak and employees hold off on purchases until their job situations become more stable.  And the risk of a “double-dip” downturn remains somewhat high.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: As GM Cruises Toward Government Deadline, U.S. Automakers Must Learn to Deal With a Permanently Smaller Market

However, uncertainty about the timing and detail of the plans kept investors on edge, capping oil’s gains.

U.S. light crude for March delivery rose $1.36 to $40.92 a barrel by 1301 GMT. The contract settled down 61 cents at $39.56 a barrel on Monday.

London Brent crude gained $1.67 cents to $47.69 a barrel, maintaining its premium against U.S. prices.

“I think the market is expecting the U.S. stimulus package to go through, which should be bullish for oil prices but it’s anyone’s guess at the moment,” said Tony Machacek, at Bache Commodities.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was also due to unveil a plan to rescue stricken banks at 11 a.m., and the stimulus bill was expected to be passed by the Senate but could still face days of wrangling before its final approval.

Investors worried about whether the separate bank bailout plan would be enough to stem the global financial crisis.

Dallas Federal Reserve President Bank Richard Fisher said on Monday that he did not expect the U.S. economy to grow in 2009 and much hinged on the impact of the package.

The global financial crisis has also slashed world fuel demand and dragged oil prices from a record high of above $147 a barrel in July.

On Monday, OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri reiterated the group’s willingness to cut oil production further to steady prices at the group’s next supply policy meeting on March 15 in Vienna.

But Algerian energy minister Chakib Khelil said the group would be under less pressure to cut output if oil stabilised near the $40 a barrel level.

Al-Badri said the 12-member group appeared to be implementing production cuts more thoroughly than expected by some, with 80 percent compliance.

A weekly national petroleum report from the U.S. American Petroleum Institute as well as the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s monthly short-term energy outlook to be released later on Tuesday will give further direction to prices, analysts said.

A Reuters poll showed that U.S. crude inventories rose for the seventh consecutive time last week, because of a drop in refinery utilisation and higher imports.

LONDON, Feb 10 (Reuters)

This dismantling of the so-called “New Federalism” will be readily apparent again this week as the federal government is once again at the forefront of the most-closely watched  crisis-fighting initiatives at hand: With Congress pushing forward on an $827 billion stimulus plan and the Treasury Department planning to unveil its new banking bailout blueprint on Tuesday, economists and other experts say the federal government is taking its biggest role in the economy in a generation.

States that once pushed away from the federal government as part of the New Federalism are now essentially begging it for financial support, banks and Big Business that once viewed near-total deregulation as Corporate America’s Holy Grail are now seeking federal financial aid and new regulatory protections (and in many cases are becoming actual business partners with the government), and individuals are asking for tax relief.

Alan Viard, a Bush administration economist now at the American Enterprise Institute, may well epitomize this reversal of thought: He’s one of the economists who initially rejected the need for a fiscal stimulus, stating that the right size for a government spending bill was “probably zero,” believing that federal interest rate cuts and existing unemployment benefits would be enough to do the trick. But he now sees the package as necessary.

“Things have gotten so bad so quickly,” Viard told The Washington Post. “We have now lost 3.6 million jobs, a stunning loss. But what’s more horrifying is that half that loss has occurred in the last three months. This is a severe recession.”

The exact shape and size of the package matters less than the timing, and any delay will be very damaging, economists say.

“Most of the things in the package, the big dollar amounts, are things that are pretty quick stimulus and need to be done,” Alice Rivlin, who was former president Bill Clinton’s budget director and a critic of aspects of the proposed stimulus, told The Post. “Is it a perfect package? Of course not. But we’re past that. Let’s just do it.”

Signs of the Stimulus

The U.S. Senate late Friday reached agreement on the estimated $827 billion stimulus bill, setting the stage for what’s expected to be some tough negotiations with the House of Representatives over tens of billions of dollars in aid to states and local governments, tax provisions, and programs focusing on education, health and renewable energy.

Congress is pushing hard to complete the legislation this week. But that figures to be a challenge. The House bill was passed without any Republican support, while the Senate version passed Friday night between Democrats and three moderate Republicans.

During a rare floor session on Saturday, Republican opponents continued to criticize the entire stimulus proposal – even though they clearly don’t have the votes to stop it. The bill is expected to be passed in the next few days.

The price tag for the Senate plan is only slightly more than the $820 billion measure adopted by the House late last month. Both plans seek to resuscitate the U.S. economy with similar one-two punch strategies:

• Fast-acting tax cuts designed to jump-start consumer and business spending.
• And longer-term – albeit slower-acting – spending on public works programs and other projects that are projected to create more than 3 million jobs.

Despite these seemingly similar philosophies, the two plans rely on approaches that are very different. The higher-priced House bill emphasizes help to states and municipalities that would otherwise be facing major cuts in services and layoffs of public employees, while the Senate slashed $40 billion of that kind of funding from its version of the bill.

The Senate plan focuses more on tax cuts, lowers a proposed increase in food stamps and provides health-care subsidies for the unemployed that are much less generous than the House version. The Senate plan also creates $30 billion in tax incentives to encourage Americans to buy homes and cars within the next year.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said the emerging Senate cuts to the stimulus program “very damaging” and that she was “very much opposed to them.” But after the Senate reached a deal, Pelosi expressed resolve to complete the legislation in the days ahead.

U.S. President Barack Obama has made the economic recovery effort the centerpiece of his agenda since even before he officially took office. But President Obama now intends to get much more involved, and much more aggressive: He will conduct a “town-hall-style” meeting in Indiana today (Monday), followed by a formal “prime time” White House news conference – the first of his term – tonight.

The president will then pitch the plan again in Florida tomorrow (Tuesday) and again in Virginia on Wednesday.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said final passage of the Senate bill is expected Thursday, after which congressional leaders say they will hurry to get the House and Senate versions into conference with the hope that a passed bill can be sent to the White House by the end of week, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.

Banking Plan Overhaul Unveiling Tomorrow (Tuesday)

Busy new U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner last week promised that the Obama administration would unveil its new blueprint for rescuing the U.S. banking system today. Over the weekend, however, the administration said the rollout would be delayed until Tuesday, so that the focus could remain on passage of the stimulus package, Bloomberg News reported.

But that doesn’t mean the banking bailout plan isn’t key.

According to a recent analysis, the Obama administration has a multi-pronged strategy for quelling the financial crisis, including:

• A program to insure banks against extreme losses on mortgages and other loans.
• A new round of investments in banks.
• Help for homeowners facing possible foreclosure.
• The broadening of a U.S. Federal Reserve program to ramp up lending.
• The Treasury Department could also look at purchasing toxic assets from banks – possibly with the aid of private-sector financing.

This would represent an overhaul of the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) initiated by the Bush administration. As the name implies, TARP was initially concerned with buying troubled assets – but it quickly evolved into a direct-government investment into the banks.

This new Obama plan reflects Geithner’s personally held view of how governments should respond to financial crises. Geithner believes all available financial tools should be used – and used aggressively. Any such effort would include direct efforts to deal with the financial sector’s massive losses, since that would help renew public confidence in the financial system.

Too small a government response during a crisis poses more risk than too much response, he said during his confirmation hearing.

Many of the details of what Geithner will announce remained in flux, although the broad outlines were becoming clear, published reports state. But one thing is certain: Even the ideas that are continuations of the initiatives started by former Treasury Secretary Henry M. “Hank” Paulson Jr. will have a unique Geithner twist.

One example: The government will almost certainly continue to invest in banks. But past investments consisted of a form of “preferred stock” that granted the federal government no say in how the bank was run, or how the money would be used.

As a Money Morning investigation revealed, that lack of control allowed banks to use taxpayer-provided TARP money as financing for buyouts. And then the banks refused to detail how they spent the money – and why not? They weren’t required to.

Under the new plan, there will still likely be new government investments in banks. But Geithner will likely call for those new investments to be convertible into common stock after some fixed period of time, perhaps seven years. If the banks are unable to raise private capital in that span, government control would escalate.

Banks receiving money also will probably have to report to the government and to the public, and the government is likely to insist that the new capital be used to expand lending.

Geithner has also been looking for a way to bring back the original TARP concept, which Congress passed on Oct. 3. Paulson pitched the plan to Congress as a program to buy troubled assets off of banks’ books, then shifted the plan and opted to invest directly into the banks instead.

Paulson’s chief worry – and the reason that he changed direction – was that asset purchases would involve too many technical complications, meaning it would take too long to enact. And that delay could be costly to a system where banks were teetering on the precipice of failure.

After struggling with those same issues, Geithner and his team appear to have settled on an approach that amounts to financial triage, meant to give investors confidence that banks will not encounter vast new losses so that they are willing to invest private money, The Post reported.

In addition to buying bad assets, the Fed and Treasury in the next few weeks are expected to expand a program that should jump-start lending outside the banking system. In November, the agencies launched a program – the “Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility” – that would devote $200 billion for credit card, auto, student and small-business loans.

That program will be extended to include residential real-estate mortgages and into the commercial real estate sector. Geithner may also announce an initiative that would inject government money into companies known as mono-line insurers. These firms are key players for states and municipalities when it comes time for those state and local government bodies to borrow money. With the implosion of the housing bubble, and the subsequent implosion of the commercial real estate business, mortgage-related losses by the insurers have made it harder for states to issue the municipal bonds that would help them ride out the recession without aggressive tax increases or budget cuts.

Geithner is likely to roll out a plan, worth $50 billion to $100 billion, to encourage the modification of mortgages for homeowners who would otherwise likely face foreclosure. It could be based loosely on a strategy for foreclosure relief engineered by Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) Chairman Sheila C. Bair, when the FDIC took control of the failed bank IndyMac Bancorp Inc. (IDMCQ) last year.

Market Matters

On the corporate front, United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) posted a profit (though revenue declined) and then announced new cost-cutting measures.  Motorola Inc. (MOT), The Walt Disney Co. (DIS), Time Warner Inc. (TWX), and Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) reported disappointing results.  Visa Inc’s (V) earnings jumped by 35%, though management warned of tougher times ahead.

Bailout plan recipients have tried to cut back excessive spending (and the associated bad PR) as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) (Miami) and Well Fargo & Co. (WFC) (Las Vegas) canceled huge boondoggles. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is selling off corporate jets, and Citigroup Inc. (C) may be attempting to get out of the $400 million marketing deal with the New York Mets.

C-SPAN must be enjoying stellar ratings as investors seem obsessed with the inner-workings of Congress and their debates on the stimulus and bailout.  The markets disregarded much of the dire earnings and economic data (terrible unemployment report…see below) and focused on the newfound optimism that politicos can work together to get the country moving in the right direction.

Economically Speaking

Just how long until a stimulus package starts creating jobs?  That answer can’t come soon enough for the almost 600,000 people who moved to the unemployment line in January, the most devastating month for job losses since 1974.  The unemployment rate climbed to 7.6%, forcing many economists to (upwardly) revise their projections for the rest of the year (and beyond).

Since the recession “officially” began in December 2007, the country has lost more than 3.6 million jobs, with most of the losses coming in the past three months.  The rest of the data released during the week did little to contradict the lousy unemployment picture.  Factory orders fell for the fifth straight month and the ISM index revealed that purchasing managers still look for contraction in the manufacturing sector. Though the services sector showed a slight rebound in its ISM survey, the index reported a fourth consecutive month of declining activity.  Residential construction spending experienced its worst annual decline ever recorded (since 1993), though optimists are hopeful that a stimulus package that focuses on infrastructure growth will prompt a renewal in non-residential building.

With the Fed stuck looking for creative ways to get involved (now that the benchmark Federal Fund rate stands at about 0%), its international counterparts took action (or inaction) of their own. The Bank of England (BOE) cuts its primary lending rate to a record low 1.0%, while the European Central Bank chose to leave its rate unchanged (for now) at 2.0%.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: As Stimulus-Package Debate Continues in Congress, New-Look Bank Bailout Plan is Set to Debut This Week

Robert E. Rubin, the former U.S. Treasury secretary who serves as an adviser to the New York-based company, declined a bonus for a second straight year, said the memo sent to Bloomberg News by Citigroup spokesman Michael Hanretta. According to Bloomberg, senior leadership committee members will get smaller awards than last year.

“The harsh realities of 2008, primarily our earnings results, mean that our bonus pool is dramatically lower,” Pandit said in the memo.

Year-end bonuses, which typically account for about two-thirds of Wall Street compensation, are being cut this year after the U.S. government rolled out a $700 billion banking bailout plan – which has conditions attached – and after banks and brokerage houses racked up more than $1 trillion of losses worldwide since 2007. CEOs Lloyd C. Blankfein of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and John J. Mack of Morgan Stanley (MS) are among executives not getting bonuses, Bloomberg reported.

Goldman’s Blankfein took home nearly $54 million in compensation in 2007. The company’s top five executives received a total of $242 million. On Oct. 28, Goldman received $10 billion in federal bailout money. On Dec. 16, Goldman reported a $2.12 billion quarterly loss, its first since it went public back in 1999. So for 2008, Goldman’s seven top-paid execs will work for their base salaries of $600,000 each, but will forgo any cash and stock bonuses, the company said.

The 116 banks that are receiving billions in taxpayer-provided bailout money this year actually paid out $1.6 billion in compensation and benefits to their top executives last year – even though the results at some of these institutions were so poor that they would soon have to turn to Washington for a government-engineered rescue, investigations by Money Morning and The Associated Press both show.

The $1.6 billion was paid out to nearly 600 executives at the 116 banks that have so far accepted federal money to bolster their financial foundations, The Associated Press concluded after a review of U.S. securities filings. In addition to salary, the compensation included bonuses paid in both cash and stock. The benefits reaped by top executives included the use of company jets for personal purposes, personal chauffeurs, home-security services, country-club memberships and professional-wealth-management services, the news service said.

U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., a longtime critic of the fat pay packages given to U.S. executives, said the bonuses and perks tallied by The AP review amounted to a bribe paid “to get [CEOs] to do the jobs for which they are well paid in the first place.”

“Most of us sign on to do jobs and we do them best we can,” Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services committee, told the news service. But “we’re told that some of the most highly paid people in executive positions are different. They need extra money to be motivated!”

The new attitude on bonuses isn’t limited to financial-services companies. Just before Christmas, in fact, U.S. heavy-equipment giant Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) announced it was cutting executive compensation by as much as 50%, because of weakening global demand.

But many of the financial-service firms are being forced to cut executive compensation as part of a deal that brought them federal bailout funds. Citigroup, the biggest recipient of U.S. bailout funds, completed an agreement for a $20 billion government investment, Pandit said in the memo. That was on top of an earlier $25 billion and a U.S. guarantee on $306 billion in troubled assets.

Pandit is cutting 52,000 jobs worldwide after four straight quarters of losses tied to bad loans and failed investments, and said in the memo that Citi expects “major challenges” to continue into the New Year.

The bank will institute a “clawback” policy to recoup executive compensation based on financial reporting that is later shown to be inaccurate, Pandit said. Even exit pay will be restricted and “the five senior executives whose compensation is listed in our proxy statement no longer can receive severance,” said Pandit, who became Citigroup CEO in December 2007. Those affected executives are Pandit, Bischoff, Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden and Vice Chairmen Lewis Kaden and Stephen Volk, Citi spokesman Hanretta told Bloomberg in an e-mail.

Pandit, 51, received 1 million shares from Citigroup as part of a “sign-on” bonus in January, in addition to a $2.5 million “retention equity award,” the company said in March. He was paid $250,000 in salary in 2007.

Pandit got $165 million from Citigroup in 2007 when he sold Old Lane Partners LP, the hedge fund he co-founded and ran. Citigroup closed New York-based Old Lane in June and took a $202 million write-down on its $800 million investment.

Citigroup shares ended the year at $6.71. They traded as high as $29.89 in the last 52 weeks.

Top Citi Executives to Forgo 2008 Bonuses, Reports State

The $1.6 billion was paid out to nearly 600 executives at the 116 banks that have so far accepted federal money to bolster their financial foundations, The Associated Press concluded after a review of U.S. securities filings. In addition to salary, the compensation included bonuses paid in both cash and stock. The benefits reaped by top executives included the use of company jets for personal purposes, personal chauffeurs, home-security services, country-club memberships and professional-wealth-management services, the news service said.

U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., a longtime critic of the fat pay packages given to U.S. executives, said the bonuses and perks tallied by The AP review amounted to a bribe paid “to get [CEOs] to do the jobs for which they are well paid in the first place.”

“Most of us sign on to do jobs and we do them best we can,” Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services committee, told the news service. But “we’re told that some of the most highly paid people in executive positions are different. They need extra money to be motivated!”

The AP review is just the latest in a series of media investigations that have questioned the effectiveness of – and banks’ commitment to – the so-called “Troubled Assets Relief Program” (TARP), part of an overall $700 billion bailout plan that was originally unveiled in late September.

The plan was originally conceived to boost the strength of U.S. financial institutions by having the federal government purchase non-performing mortgages and other bad assets. In November, the Bush administration changed TARP’s objectives, instructing the U.S. Treasury Department to pump tax dollars directly into banks in a bid to prevent wholesale economic collapse.

Ideally, TARP was supposed to jumpstart bank-to-bank and bank-to-consumer lending, helping to unfreeze a credit crisis that may be the worst the U.S. economy has experienced since the Great Depression. But that hasn’t happened. Instead, as a Money Morning investigation has shown, banks are using the money to buy other banks in a dual effort to build market share for when the economy recovers, and to perhaps make themselves “too big to fail” in the interim, many experts say.

TARP did set restrictions on some executive compensation for participating banks, but it did not limit salaries and bonuses unless they had the effect of encouraging excessive risk to the institution. Banks were barred from presenting so-called “golden parachute” financial packages to departing or ousted executives and from deducting some executive pay for tax purposes.

The AP study found that the 116 banks received $188 billion in TARP money. The study also discovered that:

• The average amount paid to each of the 116 banks’ top executives was $2.6 million in salary, bonuses and benefits.

• Lloyd C. Blankfein, president and chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), took home nearly $54 million in compensation in 2007. The company’s top five executives received a total of $242 million. On Oct. 28, Goldman received $10 billion in federal bailout money. On Dec. 16, Goldman reported a $2.12 billion quarterly loss, its first since it went public back in 1999. So for 2008, Goldman’s seven top-paid execs will work for their base salaries of $600,000 each, but will forgo any cash and stock bonuses, the company said. Facing increasing concern by its own shareholders on executive payments, the company described its pay plan in a written report back in the spring as being essential to retain and motivate executives “whose efforts and judgments are vital to our continued success, by setting their compensation at appropriate and competitive levels.” Goldman spokesman Ed Canaday would not elaborate beyond that written report.

• Even where banks slashed pay, some executives still reaped a payday of seven – or even eight – figures. Richard D. Fairbank, the chairman of Capital One Financial Corp. (COF), which received $3.56 billion in bailout money back on Nov. 14, took a $1 million hit in compensation after his company had a disappointing year, but still got $17 million in stock options.

• Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) CEO John A. Thain topped all banking chieftains with more than $83 million in total earnings in 2007. Thain, a former chief operating officer for Goldman Sachs, took over the top job at Merrill in December 2007, avoiding the blame for a year in which Merrill lost $7.8 billion. Since he began work late in the year, he landed a $15 million signing bonus, $57,692 in salary, and an additional $68 million in stock options. Like Goldman, Merrill got $10 billion from taxpayers on Oct. 28. Merrill shareholders have approved its sale to Bank of America Corp. (BAC), though the value of the deal has plunged to $20 billion (from $50 billion at the time the deal was announced) as a result of the stock market decline. BofA will reportedly slash 35,000 jobs as a result of the combination.

• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) CEO James Dimon ran up a $211,182 private jet travel tab last year, because his family lived in Chicago and he was commuting to New York. JP Morgan received $25 billion in bailout funds.

• Bank of New York Mellon Corp., (BK) CEO Robert P. Kelly received $66,748 for financial services – on top of his $975,000 salary and $7.5 million bonus. His car and driver cost $178,879. Kelly also received $846,000 in relocation expenses, including help selling his home in Pittsburgh and purchasing one in Manhattan, the company said. At Goldman, the bill for leased cars and drivers ran as high as $233,000 per executive. The firm told its shareholders this year that financial counseling and chauffeurs are important because it grants executives more time to focus on their jobs.

• Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), which received $25 billion in bailout cash, gave its top executives as much as $20,000 each for personal financial planners. When asked to justify the personal use of company aircraft for some executives, banks cite security as a key reason. But U.S. Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., questioned that rationale, saying executives visit many locations more vulnerable than the nation’s security-conscious commercial air terminals.U.S. Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., a member of the House Financial Services Committee, said excessive pay and perks undermines the development of good economic policies at banks and fuels an already problematic pay spiral in the U.S. financial sector. And that’s especially difficult for shareholders and taxpayers to accept when virtually the entire sector needs bailing out

  Sherman told The AP that he wants the banks to appear before Congress, like the automakers did, and spell out their spending plans for the bailout money.

  Said Sherman: “The tougher we are on the executives that come to Washington, the fewer will come for a bailout.”

  Source: Banks That Got $188 Billion in Bailout Money This Year Paid Out $1.6 Billion to Top Execs Last Year

Good day… Not sure when all of you will be receiving this today, as it took nearly over a half hour for my computer to boot up this morning. But its all good news for currency investors, so I’ll get it written and out to you as quickly as I can. The dollar slowed its decent overnight, but continued to fall vs. most of the major currencies as the US Senate rejected the $14 billion bailout for the auto industry.

The big winner in the Senate rejection of the bailout plan was the Japanese yen, as Japanese car makers are predicted to grab an even bigger piece of the US auto market. The yen, which has been rallying due to global deleveraging and carry trade reversals, suddenly had another reason to rally. The yen rose to a 13 year high, trading below 90 yen per dollar, and some are now predicting a rise to 80. Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa boosted the yen further after telling reporters in Tokyo that Japan isn’t considering intervening in the currency markets.

But even before the automakers got the bad news from the Senate, the dollar was falling faster than we’ve seen in the past few weeks. Chuck shouted out across the trade desk around noon yesterday that the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc, had fallen below the 55 day moving average. This is a major level for technical traders, and signaled the dollar could be headed for a further fall.

The data released yesterday showed initial jobless claims in the US surged to a 26 year high as the recession deepened. Claims increased to 573,000 last week, an increase of 58,000 from a revised 515,000 the previous week. The total number of workers staying on the benefit rolls jumped to just below 4.5 million, the most since November 1982.

While the markets had predicted another increase in the jobless claims, the trade deficit numbers were a big surprise. US exports slid to a seven month low causing the trade deficit to widen to $57.2 billion in October. No one I read was predicting a widening deficit. The worsening trade balance removes what has been the sole source of support for the economy during this recession.

A separate report issued by the Federal Reserve showed US household wealth fell by the most on record in the third quarter. Net worth for households and non-profit groups decreased by $2.81 trillion, the most since records began in 1952. So we have record unemployment, a widening trade deficit, and falling consumer net worth; not a good picture for the incoming President. But President Elect Obama has a plan, we can just spend our way out of this problem!! Chuck sent me the following comments yesterday afternoon:

“So… All this week I’ve talked about the President-elect’s plan to spend more money since 1950 on infrastructure, which is fine in good times, but these are faaaaaaaaarrrrrrrr from “good times” for the economy… Well… Yesterday the P/E said this, “We understand that we’ve got to provide a blood infusion to the patient right now to make sure that the patient is stabilized. And that means that we can’t worry about the deficit.”

Can’t worry about the deficit? Did I hear that correctly? Geez Louise, here we go again, sliding down the same old slippery slope of “deficits don’t matter”! Aye, yi, yi! What is everyone smoking? I’ve said this before many times at presentations, and here in the Pfennig, but I can’t pass this up… These people, who should know better, that claim that deficits don’t matter, remind me of the guy standing on top of the Empire State Building, and decides to jump off… As he passes the 56th floor he says… “So far… So good!”

Well, that’s right, so far he hasn’t hit the ground! And… So far deficits have only bruised us, but they haven’t hit the ground yet either! A quick look at my fave book on deficits, I.O.U.S.A. tells me that we’ve passed the $10 Trillion mark for Federal Debt… “today’s deficits reduce national savings, which dramatically decreases productive investment and wealth-creating activities. Increased indebtedness to foreign lenders puts future financial decisions in the hands of people who may or may not have our interests in mind when they make them. Further, interest payments that have historically stayed home now provide more and more income to investors abroad.”

“At the current rate, with existing laws, by 2040 the federal government will be spending twice as much as it takes in from taxes. Our children and grandchildren already face a more competitive, challenging, and uncertain world than most Americans have grown accustomed to.”

Failure to recognize this by our leaders is the biggest mistake we can make… And comments like the one above from the new PE lead me to believe we’ll have more of the same old “deficits don’t matter” and that, my friends will eventually weigh heavily on the dollar…

Sorry to be so gloom and doom on a Friday… But that comment by the new PE just sent me reeling! Now, back to Chris…”

I’ve known Chuck for nearly 20 years now, and nothing gets his blood boiling as quick as the saying ‘deficts don’t matter’! The leaders of Europe sure think they matter, as the EU decided to trim down a proposed stimulus package, as Germany warded off calls by France and Britain for deficit-boosting programs. This announcement, combined with a statement by ECB council member and Bundesbank head Axel Weber caused the Euro to jump vs. the US$. ECB member Weber cautioned against reducing interest rates below 2 percent, suggesting the bank is probably near the end of its rate-cutting cycle. “If the benchmark rate sinks below 2 percent when medium to long term inflation expectations are just below 2 percent, that implies negative real interest rates,” Weber said in an interview. “I would like to avoid that.”

Weber knows the long term impacts of negative real interest rates, they are very inflationary. The generation before his lived through the German hyper inflation of the early 1920’s which helps explain why financial leaders from Germany are such inflation hawks. So the 75 basis point cut by the ECB last week, which was the biggest in ECB history, will likely be the last cut for some time. The Euro has benefited from this perceived change in attitude. As of this morning, the Euro has risen over 5 percent vs. the US$ this week.

We have been suggesting that the recent dollar rally was not a change in the long term trend for the dollar, and some big name currency traders are starting to jump on our bandwagon. Goldman Sachs Group lowered its forecast for the dollar against the euro and the yen for 2009, saying the repatriation of overseas assets by US investors and demand for the greenback for funding are ‘diminishing’. Goldman is now predicting the Euro will rally to $1.45 per euro by the end of next year, up from their previous prediction of $1.30. “We are at a turning point,” Goldman’s Jens Nordvig wrote in a research report. “We expect the dollar support from temporary deleveraging and funding flows to diminish, and, in that scenario, the underlying pressure from more standard sources should once again become more important.” Sounds like he has been reading the Pfennig, as Chuck has been calling for a return to underlying fundamentals for a while now!

The folks at Citigroup are also jumping on the dollar bear bandwagon. “There are good indications that the US dollar is likely to weaken against many Asian currencies into year-end,” wrote Tom Fitzpatrick and Shyam Devani, analysts at Citigroup. They went on to say the dollar will retreat from a two year high against an index of Asian currencies after breaching levels where orders to buy the greenback are clustered. They believe the dollar will fall vs. the Singapore dollar, Chinese Renminbi, and the Indian rupee.

The Chinese Renminbi continued to rally for a seventh day in a row, the longest winning streak since June. Assistant Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao vowed to keep the currency at a ‘reasonable and balanced’ level after the Chinese let it drop sharply on Dec. 1. China stalled the Renminbi’s appreciation in July to aid exporters after letting it rise 6.6% in the first half of 2008. I think China will continue to slowly let the Renminbi appreciate, but will keep the pace of the appreciation at a manageable rate of 6 to 7 percent per year. China’s economy is slowing, but Asia will continue to be the growth engine of the global economy. I still suggest investors allocate at least a portion of their investments into the Asian currencies of Singapore, Japan, or China.

Currencies today 12/12/08: A$ .6586, kiwi .5453, C$ .8038, euro 1.3363, sterling 1.4962, Swiss .8473, ISK 218, rand 10.2214 krone 6.8858, SEK 7.9616, forint 197.96, zloty 2.9621, koruna 19.488, yen 90.35, baht 35.01, sing 1.4918, HKD 7.75, INR 48.577, China 6.8433, pesos 13.3266, BRL 2.3684, dollar index 83.68, Oil $44.97, Silver $10.10, and Gold… $817.05

That’s it for today… Drove the side streets in to work for the last time today. The highway department shut down a 5 mile stretch of interstate which runs from the front door of our office to my house. After a full year of taking side roads to and from work, I will be able to take the newly refurbished highway on Monday. This will drop my commute big time, and is great news for yours truly!! Chuck is off on his annual Christmas shopping trip with his buddies today. They start first thing in the morning and spend the entire day spreading Christmas cheer around town. Hopefully I will be able to meet up with them this evening, as they typically end their trip at a local restaurant/bar not too far from my home. Hope everyone has a Fantastic Friday, and a Wonderful Weekend!!!

Source: Bailout Failure Accelerates Dollars Decline

“We asked for $700 billion to purchase troubled assets from financial institutions. At the time, we believed that would be the most effective means of getting credit flowing again,” Paulson said in a statement.

However, “it was clear to me by the time the bill was signed on October 3rd that… purchasing troubled assets – our initial focus – would take time to implement and would not be sufficient given the severity of the problem,” Paulson added. “In consultation with the Federal Reserve, I determined that the most timely, effective step to improve credit market conditions was to strengthen bank balance sheets quickly through direct purchases of equity in banks.”

Paulson said he was considering using remaining bailout funds on a second round of purchases of preferred shares in financial institutions. The Treasury has already committed $250 billion of the $700 billion rescue fund to the purchase of bank stock, and on Monday, used another $40 billion to prop up insurance giant American International Group. Inc. (AIG). That leaves just $60 billion of the initial $350 billion allocation available for use.

Paulson will have to appear before Congress to secure the second half of the $700 billion bailout plan.

Paulson also said he is working with the U.S. Federal Reserve to create a facility to bolster the market for asset-backed securities by funding consumer finance companies.

“With the Federal Reserve we are exploring the development of a potential liquidity facility for highly-rated AAA asset-backed securities,” Paulson said. “We are looking at ways to possibly use the TARP to encourage private investors to come back to this troubled market, by providing them access to federal financing while protecting the taxpayers’ investment.”

Source: Paulson Amends TARP to Include Equity Stakes in Financial Firms and Assistance to Consumer Finance Companies

Instead of direct financing assistance, it looks like the Bush Administration will speed up a $25 billion loan program that was approved by Congress in September and that’s aimed at helping automakers develop more-fuel-efficient vehicles. The program is administered by the U.S. Department of Energy. The administration is also believed to have asked the U.S. Commerce Department to explore other ways that aid could be brought to the automakers – without expanding the scope of the bailout package.

The so-called “Big Three” automakers – GM, Chrysler, and Ford Motor Co. (F) – are in need of government assistance after being pushed to the brink of bankruptcy: Foreign competition and a slumping economy have combined to push vehicle sales down to their lowest level in 15 years.

GM has been in talks with Cerberus Capital Management LP about buying Chrysler since September. But potential investors in the deal have been hesitant to back the merger without the safety net of federal assistance, or a government guarantee of some sort. GM’s inability to secure financing at a time when credit is hard to come by and auto sales are in decline has left the No. 1 U.S. automaker with few options other than appealing to the government.

GM spokesman Greg Martin said in late October that the company had asked the Treasury Department to broaden recently passed legislation, intended to bolster banks and financial institutions, to include auto companies.

In fact, General Motors Chairman G. Richard “Rick” Wagoner Jr. reportedly went right to Treasury Secretary Henry M. “Hank” Paulson Jr. and lobbied for the government to provide emergency financial aid to the Big Three via the $700 billion bailout plan.

Badly in Need of a Bailout

GM desperately needs some sort of outside funding, as the company lost $18.8 billion in the first six months of the year, and is hemorrhaging about $1 billion in cash each month. That has raised the prospect of bankruptcy for the company. GM had $21 billion as of June, but a merger with Chrysler would give the company access to another $12 billion in cash.

Cerberus bought Chrysler from former parent Daimler AG (DAI) last year for an estimated $7.4 billion. But the new owner hasn’t proven anymore adept at arresting Chrysler’s financial and market-share declines. Chrysler, perennially the smallest of the Big Three, has seen its sales fall by 25% — almost double the 12.8% overall decline in U.S. auto sales. Chrysler has been hurt because its fleet of pickup trucks, minivans, sport utility vehicles and high-performance cars include a number of gas guzzlers – popular for their performance when fuel prices are low, but an albatross to market when oil prices were at record highs.

Cerberus had buyout discussions with the Japanese automaker Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (ADR: NSANY) – and Nissan’s French partner, Renault SA – about recruiting Chrysler into its international auto alliance. But Chrysler has apparently decided to focus exclusively on the potential for a deal with General Motors.

Just how deep the Big Three’s problems actually are will become very clear this week: Sales figures for October will be released this week as part of the third-quarter earnings reports that Ford and GM are scheduled to release.

Industry sales fell 26.6%, but many analysts believe that October could be even worse. Edmunds.com, a well-known auto-industry researcher, is predicting a sales decline of roughly 30%, The Times reported.

Should any of Detroit’s Big Three go bankrupt the consequences for the U.S. economy would be both deep and long lasting. Together, the companies employ more than 200,000 Americans, and support millions more U.S. workers indirectly through suppliers and dealerships. And that doesn’t count the estimated 1 million Americans – including many retired autoworkers – who rely upon the U.S. auto companies for pension and healthcare benefits. Many of those retirees already saw their benefits suffer severe cutbacks as the carmakers struggled to find cost-savings. Any new cutbacks would undoubtedly affect them, too.

The unemployment rate hit 6.1% in September and continues to rise. Some analysts anticipate the jobless rate could climb as high as 8.5% to 10% next year. With a jobless rate that reached 8.7% in September, the state of Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the country.

Alternative Energy is No Longer an Alternative

If bailout money isn’t an option, the first step for automakers is to get the Energy Department to expedite the release of the $25 billion in low-interest loans for GM, Chrysler and the Ford Motor Co.

The loan program is viewed as key to the U.S. auto industry’s future – allowing the three U.S. carmakers to use government money to develop fleets of new, more-fuel-efficient cars and trucks, new hybrid technologies, and new powerplants to run these new vehicles. By doing that, the automakers could then take the money from the corporate coffers that would otherwise have been used for this hybrid research and development and redirect it for use modernizing plants and developing new, more-competitive production techniques.

“The auto companies are clearly running out of cash, and badly in need of more liquidity,” David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich., told The Times. “Releasing the $25 billion in loans is a necessary first step.”

Getting Political

Like the U.S. defense industry, the U.S. auto industry has always enjoyed strong political support. And the current period is no exception. Elected officials in states with a heavy automotive employment base are rallying around the Big Three. Just last week, the governors of Michigan, Ohio, New York, Kentucky, Delaware and South Dakota wrote a letter to Treasury Secretary Paulson and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, urging “immediate action” to assist the foundering industry.

“While all sectors of the economy are experiencing difficult times, the automotive industry is particularly challenged,” the letter said. “As a result, the financial well-being of other major industries and millions of American citizens are at risk.”

But with the presidential election set for today (Tuesday), it’s unclear if some of the Bush Administration’s reluctance to add the auto industry to the bailout plan is part of a concern about setting a precedent that could open the door to other industries – further boosting the rescue plan’s ultimate cost – or if the administration is seeking to avoid making any decisions that could subsequently conflict with the goals of the incoming president. For instance, the Democratic nominee, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., has said in recent days that he supports increasing aid to the troubled auto companies, while Republican hopeful John McCain, R-Ariz., has not said whether he would support auto-sector aid beyond the $25 billion, The Times reported.
And, as Money Morning has reported, President George Bush realizes that some decisions about how the bailout will be administered will have to be left to the next president.

Source: Government Won’t Extend $700 Billion Bailout Plan to U.S. “Big Three”

R. Shah Gilani, a retired hedge-fund manager and Money Morning contributing editor who is emerging as an expert on the worldwide financial meltdown, noted that the plan was apparently still that – a plan. Even so, he said that “any bailout plan that directly addresses foreclosures is political posturing that will ultimately be overwhelmed by inevitable economic realities.”

The New York Times carried the first reports of the Bush Administration’s new housing rescue new proposal yesterday (Thursday). According to the newspaper report, this program would be the most sweeping and direct government initiative aimed at home-loan borrowers since the financial crisis started last year.

As proposed, the federal government would incur half the loss on a home loan if the mortgage company that controls the loan agrees to lower the borrower’s monthly payment for at least five years. On any given loan, the mortgage company would reduce the payment borne by the homeowner by writing off part of the loan balance, reducing the loan’s interest rate or changing other loan terms, sources told
The Times.

The newspaper said it could not name the three senior officials who provided details of the plan because it was still being worked out.

In this case, the devil truly will be in the details: Trying to take a massive rescue plan – and matching the benefits up with individual homeowners – may be just too much to ask, Money Morning’s Gilani says.

“Who will be eligible, how will that be determined, what will happen when prices continue to fall and mortgage holders eventually walk away” are just some of the tough questions a workable plan would have to answer, Gilani said. Plus, “is the government going to shackle them to their mortgages the same way they’re shackling taxpayers to all these other ill-begotten bailout schemes?”

The plan – which would be part of the $700 billion banking-system rescue plan the government approved early this month – would cost $40 billion to $50 billion, with the money being used to cover future losses on loans that are deemed eligible for federal support.

That price tag is likely to be very much on the low side, Gilani says.

“The $40-$50 billion price tag could only have been plucked from thin air,” he said. “The real gravity of the problem will weigh in closer to $500 billion – at least.”

Officials with both the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) are collaborating on the proposal, and insiders believe that an announcement may be made sometime soon. FDIC Chairwoman Sheila C. Bair – a leading proponent of such a plan – publicly discussed the possibility a week ago.

Bush Administration officials clearly want to stabilize the U.S. housing market. But that’s easier said than done. Even at a time when roughly one in every 10 mortgages was either delinquent or in foreclosure – as was the case this summer – companies have been highly reluctant to aggressively reduce payments for two key reasons:

• They’re afraid the borrowers might default again.
• And they fear that the buyers of mortgage-backed securities might sue.

By offering to incur half the losses, federal officials hope that the U.S. housing market – and the accompanying market for mortgage loans – might finally settle out, which could also ease the financial crisis even as it provides a bit of a boost to the U.S. economy [For a related story on the U.S. economy – including a look at third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) – check out this report elsewhere in the current issue of Money Morning.]

There’s one key challenge, however: If the economic slump ultimately ends up being deeper and longer-lasting than anyone right now predicts, the housing program could end up being much more expensive than planned – dumping still more unexpected debt onto the U.S. balance sheet. And the plan – or, at least, the details that have leaked out so far – doesn’t seem to address the one key problem with the U.S. housing market: Housing prices keep going down.

“Tragically, there’s no guarantee the plan won’t collapse on homeowners and taxpayers as it does nothing to stem the continuing slide in home prices, which is the real problem,”
Gilani says.

Treasury Department spokeswoman Jennifer Zuccarelli told  The Times that it would be premature to discuss a plan that policymakers were still working on.

“As we said last week, the administration is going through the White House policy process to look at ways to reduce foreclosures, and that process is ongoing,” she told the newspaper. “We have not decided on a particular approach.”

Source: Credit Crisis Expert Says Proposed Plan to Bail Out Delinquent Homeowners May Face Too Many Problems to Succeed