The only thing keeping Wall Street from packing up shop and moving to Washington is the fact it can’t find a buyer for the buildings it occupies. Thanks to our elected officials, investors are forced to spend more time reading the political pages than the business section, and that means Wall Street leads directly to Pennsylvania Avenue.

Lately, the equities market has little energy or motivation to move until Washington opens its mouth. When our leaders talk, all bets are off.

Geithner sent the markets crashing. Bernanke sent them soaring. And today, Obama sent them right back down. The more they meddle with the economy, the stronger the reactions and the worse the addiction.

Anybody have any duct tape?

It is an utter mess on Wall Street. Political uncertainty has created financial uncertainty and we are all paying for it, whether it is through higher taxes or our plunging 401(k)s. As I write, all three major indices are down by over 2.25%, getting sucked down by more bad news from the real estate sector.

But even in the midst of the decline, shares of General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Ford (NYSE:F) continue their recent upswing.  GM has surged by more than 65% since crashing to a new low of just $1.52 last Friday.

What gives?

Of course, it all has to do with government intervention. Now that Obama has its Detroit review team in place, speculators believe chances of any bankruptcies are greatly decreasing by the day. Some positive gestures from Obama last night only helped to brighten the mood.

Many investors are looking at the action and wondering if this is a sustainable run or merely another government-fueled fake-out.

Read the full article here: Investments lost? Just follow Wall Street to Pennsylvania Avenue

The worst is over. At least in the Northern Hemisphere. Yesterday marked the earth’s greatest tilt away the sun, leaving the northern latitudes in darkness for much of the day.

Here in Paris, for example, it was practically dark at 4PM yesterday…at 9AM this morning, it is still dark.

But the world turns. Around and around it goes. It never seems to stop. Oh…we’re getting dizzy!

And while it is dark and cold today…lo! Soon it will be sunny and warm. Beginning today, the daylight will last a little longer every day. Gradually, we will tip back into the sun’s favor.

In the meantime, we can’t remember such a foreboding Christmas season. Factories all around the world are shutting down. People are losing their jobs. Banks are repossessing houses. Prices are being cut.

Just this morning, we turned to Elizabeth: “We’re going to have to shift to Plan B next year.”

“Plan B?”

“Yes…we’ve got to cut back on our expenses. Plan A is where we go along as we have been. Plan B is where you have to get rid of some of your horses. And then, there’s Plan C….”

“Plan C?”

“Yes, in Plan C we eat the horses.”

In California, joblessness has reached a 14-year high – at 8.4%. European car sales have plunged. HSBC says it needs more money. Louis Vuitton cancelled a new flagship store in Tokyo. Traffic at Gatwick Airport in London is down 13% from the year before.

These are just today’s headlines. Every day is about the same – more cutbacks…more bankruptcies…more trouble.

The Dow fell 25 points on Friday. Oil closed the day about $42. And the 10-year T-note rose to yield all of 2.12%. People are eager to put their money in Treasury paper – even at these tiny yields. They may not make any money, they reason, but at least they won’t lose any. (We predict that they will lose a lot of their money; when…we can’t say.)

And we will venture another guess. When next it is sunny and warm outside in Paris and New York, the financial crisis will still be with us. That’s right; market cycles last longer than planetary cycles. The bull market in stocks began when it was sunny and hot, August 1982. Since then, the earth has made its way around the sun 26 times…and the Dow rose almost 20 times.

You don’t think that such a huge, generational bull market will be corrected in a single year, do you? You don’t think that the correction will only take the Dow down about 45%, do you? You don’t think people will be able to stick with Plan A, do you?

We don’t. The worst is still ahead. Here’s why:

When the boom began, people were slow to get in the spirit of it. They remembered the ’70s and fretted. As the Dow rose from 800 to 1,800 they thought they saw a crash around every corner. Then, in October of ‘87, the Dow hit 2,700 and crashed – down 507 points in a single day. Investors thought the bull market was over. Instead, it continued.

By December, 1996, the Dow had reached 6,437. Alan Greenspan, as witless at the beginning of his career as at the end of it, pronounced this the result of “irrational exuberance.”

But the boom continued. And gradually, people came to accept that stocks would always go up “in the long run,” and that houses always went up all the time. Oh yes, and jobs were always available…and so was credit. At the beginning of the boom, people saved about 10% of their incomes. But as their faith in the boom grew their savings diminished. There was no longer any need to save money for a rainy day – because it never rained.

And if they did need money, they could always draw on someone else’s savings! Stocking money began to seem as old-fashioned as canning tomatoes. Why bother? You can get all the fresh tomatoes you want at the supermarket. And, until recently, you could get all the cash you needed from credit cards and home equity lines.

The saving rate fell to zero.

Then, of course, it started to rain. And now, the lack of savings is becoming a serious crisis at the household level. Gone are the smiley faces at the home-equity loan departments. Nor are there more credit cards arriving in the mail.

A little insight from Durham University in Britain: You might have thought that in the Bubble Epoch people used their credit for extraordinary expenses…such as adding on to their houses or taking a once-in-a-lifetime vacation. If that were the case, they could now merely forego the unusual expense. Their lives may not be so much fun…but at least they would be solvent. Not so. It turns out that borrowers got used to living on home equity withdrawals. They counted on the money to fill in the gaps in their household budgets.

James Saft: “It seems that even during boom times in Britain people were not borrowing against their houses simply to buy BMWs or to pay for vacations, but often to keep their households running during tough times.”

In short, they used borrowing in place of savings – for when they got sick, lost their jobs, or had some other crisis.

Now, cometh another crisis – the worldwide financial crisis – and they have to move to Plan B. But how? They have no savings. They can no longer borrow. What do they do if they lose their jobs?

“You can always get a job flipping burgers,” was the poor cousin of “stocks always go up over the long run.” Both these fantasies depended on a boom. The boom gone…so are the jobs… Soon, they will have a crazed look in their eyes…and a carving knife in their hands. Look out, Flicka! Look out, Mr. Ed!

*** The more the average householder is pinched, the more he resents Wall Street. The press no longer reports the latest news on executive compensation with admiration…now it is outrage that readers want to feel. A group of 600 executives in the financial industry – the same executives who are now getting bailed out with taxpayers’ money – pocketed $1.6 billion last year. The banks did the same thing as ordinary households. Rather than save money, they spent it. The typical household bought a big-screen TV. The banks paid off their top employees, giving the average banker a compensation of $2.6 million.

“The bankers get bailed out; we get sold out,” said one unemployed autoworker.

*** We have only seen the beginning of this crisis. So far, consumers have put off buying things they could easily delay – such as new cars and new houses. Next year, without jobs, they will cut back further. Consumer prices will fall – simply because consumers will buy less of them.

Then, the call will go out to stop bailing out Wall Street and begin bailing out the consumer. Some form of direct giveaway to households is almost inevitable. Perhaps more “rebate” checks will be sent out. How much? Hard to say…but this is what gives us confidence in the feds. If they really, really want to cause consumer prices to rise – they can always bring over Gideon Gono as a consultant…and add zeros.

Source: Americans Turn to ‘Plan B’

In fact, the home-furnishings sector, as a whole, has lost 27.3% of its value in the last 11 months. It is also down 31.7% from its highest close, which occurred almost three years ago.

For some individual companies, it’s even worse…

On May 2, New Jersey-based Linens ‘n Things filed for bankruptcy, defaulting on $1.35 billion worth of debt. This may finally be a sign that the market is nearing its bottom.

Bankruptcies will lead to decreased supply (Linens ‘n Things has already announced it will close 120 stores) and less competition… two factors that should help the profit margins on the remaining retailers.

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As you can see, after getting killed in 2007, home-furnishing companies are finally stabilizing. The sector has risen 13% since March. And it’s cheap. The sector is trading at a 34.1% discount to its historical, median P/E.

But, while the sector is no doubt very cheap, a 13% rally is not enough to get me excited…

The sector may just be in a temporary upswing in an otherwise bear market. I wouldn’t feel comfortable getting into this sector until it tests its previous low. If it makes another downward move that fails to take it to new lows, then the worst is likely behind us.

At that point you could buy any of the companies I mentioned above – Target, Bed Bath & Beyond, or Tuesday Morning. Costco and Wal-Mart would also benefit from an upswing in the sector, as would upscale retailer Williams-Sonoma

Good investing,

Ian Davis

Source: These Beaten-Up Retailers Are Showing Signs of an Uptrend

As we head into the Memorial Day weekend, Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service, toted up the cost: “It looks as though we’ll pay about $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion each day during the four-day Memorial Day weekend, and that adds up to $6 billion to $6.4 billion in U.S. motor fuel expense,” he said. “That compares with about $2 billion for the total Memorial Day weekend six years ago.”

With consumers paying about $1 billion more each day for gasoline than they did six years ago, Kloza said, “You really wonder how much the U.S. consumer can take.” And he added that the “more insidious increases are in the diesel segment … A back-of-the-envelope extrapolation would put diesel and heating-oil costs at about $807 million per day currently vs. about $217 million six years ago.”

Net result: “We are seeing numerous bankruptcies among small and mid-sized trucking firms with more to come,” Kloza forecast grimly.

Source: Oil Back on the Upswing – Small Truckers Going Bankrupt.

Concerns about the impact of the credit crisis and the weak economy will come into sharp focus next week, with investors set for a flood of earnings from ailing financials as well as the technology sector.

Earnings results in focus include financials Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Washington Mutual and tech bellwethers Intel and Google.

Investors, so far, have managed considerable optimism in the face of the credit crisis and its effects.

“Hope springs eternal on Wall Street,” says Justice Litle.

“But… the consumer effects of the housing bust are still in early days. Bankruptcies jumped 30% in March, with the sharpest rise in uber-bubble states like California, Nevada and Florida.

“In Orange Country, as many as six out of ten new buyers could be ‘upside down,’ meaning the size of the mortgage exceeds the value of the house. Time magazine talks of the first ‘Starbucks recession,’ in which belts are being tightened enough to pass up that $4 cup of joe. Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz reports that, ‘For the first time in our history as a company, we have negative traffic this year vs. last.’”

28 million Americans will use food stamps this year to buy basic necessities –
the most since the program was established in the 1960s.

Back in 2002, we wondered aloud with Bill Bonner what the Soft Depression of the 21st Century might look like. Perhaps this is it:

The Greater Depression: Where are the porkpie hats and the trench coats?

“The increase from 26.5 million in 2007,” David Usborne writes of food stamps for the British rag The Independent, “is due partly to recent efforts to increase public awareness of the program and also a switch from paper coupons to electronic debit cards. But above all, it is the pressures being exerted on ordinary Americans by an economy that is suddenly beset by troubles. Housing foreclosures, accelerating jobs losses and fast-rising prices all add to the squeeze.”

Do we really need a Brit to point out the mess we’re in? Yesterday we did our best to show what food prices are doing to the middle class. Now we see what the rest of the horde is going through. If the forecasts for foreclosures and bankruptcies hold in 2008 — we haven’t seen the half of it.

U.S. stocks ended the day higher again yesterday. The Dow rose 0.4%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.6%. And the Nasdaq skooched up nearly a percent. With those gains, all three indexes managed to break even for the month, making March the best calendar month in nearly six…

But this morning also marks the beginning of the second quarter. And looking back on the first… well… it ain’t pretty. Brace yourself. “The truth hurts today,” Extreme Ian writes by IM, woefully.

*The Dow, down 7.6%, at 12,262 points, had its worst quarter in five years. Down 1,001 points during that time, the Dow recorded its biggest quarterly point loss ever.

*The S&P suffered a technical correction during the quarter, down 10%. The broad index came but a breath away from entering an official bear market, falling as low as 16% below its October peak. The index has sunk for five consecutive months… its worst monthly losing streak since 1990.

*The Nasdaq, which fared best of the three indexes in 2007, got hit the hardest this quarter. Down 14% year to date and over 20% from its October high, the tech index is the only one of the big three officially in a bear market.

Volatility rose to new highs in the first quarter, too. The VIX, largely a measure of market uncertainty, hit highs unseen since the tech bust. The S&P moved up or down 1% or more on 51% of the trading days in the quarter… that’s the most frequent period of big percentage moves since 1934.

And contrary to the growing belief that global markets are “decoupling” from the U.S. variety, take a gander at this first-quarter roundup from The Wall Street Journal:

A weaker dollar really is good for the global economy, isn’t it? Golly.

“The first quarter was rough,” laments our managing editor, Chris Mayer, “no doubt about that. Poor fourth-quarter earnings reports and a weaker outlook across many sectors all had a part to play. Financials, of course, were the main culprit.

“Financials look abysmal, with a 50% drop in earnings expected. Along with consumer discretionary stocks — think trendy retailers and electronic goodies — these two sectors account for the drop in earnings for the market as a whole.

“But look at the other end of the spectrum. The consensus on energy companies is high — anticipating a 22.8% increase. That can be good and bad. If expectations are too high, energy companies are bound to disappoint. But I don’t find that energy companies look expensive, generally. It’s a big sector. It depends on what you’re looking at specifically, but generally speaking, I think energy should be a good place to be.”

For specific recommendations on weathering this tempest in one piece, see Chris’ Capital & Crisis.

Unfortunately, if UBS’ announcement this morning is any indication, the second quarter is likely to bring more of the same.

The European mega-bank says it expects a $12 billion loss from the first quarter. The bank will kick off Q2 with another $19 billion write-down, which it also revealed today. And as if shareholders hadn’t had enough bad news, the bank is seeking $15 billion in emergency capital to cover bad bets that have yet to hit the books.

UBS has written down $40 billion since last July — making it Wall Street’s biggest loser (so far). Upon announcing this latest array of losses, UBS head honcho Marcel Ospel stepped down. No April Fools’ prank here.

The mostly unscathed Deutsche Bank threw its hat into the write-down ring today too. The German bank predicted a first-quarter write-down of $4 billion thanks to “significantly more challenging” market conditions.

Not to be outdone, Lehman Brothers capped off the day’s round of dismal financial earnings news. Lehman says it will need at least $3 billion in emergency funding to stay afloat during this “credit crisis.”

To raise the money, the brokerage will sell 4 million convertible preferred shares; “an endorsement of our balance sheet by investors,” says CFO Erin Callan. Funny… looks more like a sudden, desperate attempt to raise money at the expense of current shareholders.

Two sides to every coin, we suppose.

Naturally, UBS, Deutsche Bank and Lehman stocks rose on the news. In fact, Deutsche Bank was so smitten with UBS’ super-sized write-down, it decided to upgrade UBS shares to “buy” today. Only in the stock market can massive, multibillion-dollar losses be reasons for optimism.

This is precisely why we don’t publish any day trading letters.

The dollar ended up with some big gains after yesterday’s volatile session. The euro climbed up to an tenth of a cent below its all-time high of $1.59 yesterday on high inflation readings and subsequent doubts of an ECB rate cut.

But within moments of swinging toward record lows, the dollar rebounded against nearly every major currency. Profit taking and a weakening resource market seemed to be the catalyst for this latest wave of dollar strength. The dollar index has shot up a full point from yesterday’s low, to 72.4 this morning.

The euro limped all the way back down to $1.56. The yen backed off to 100.

“This is a NOT a trend reversal,” warns Chuck Butler. “We’ve seen this at various times in the past with the euro. Sooner or later, love is gonna get ya, and then the euro will finally climb over 1.58 to on its way to higher ground. The HUGE capital flows that used to come into the U.S. are disappearing, and with the current account having problems with financing, the only give is in the dollar.”

In the first quarter, the dollar managed its biggest quarterly loss versus the euro since 2004. The yen had its best quarter versus the greenback since 1999 and struck its highest level since 1995.

In all, against the euro and yen — arguably, the two most influential currencies outside the dollar — it was a nasty first quarter for the greenback.

Hit the hardest during yesterday’s broad commodity sell-off, oil fell over 6% yesterday and overnight. Oil is now trading just below $100.

Even as oil backs off, prices at the pump have hit new highs. The national average gas price yesterday struck $3.28, another record high.

After pulling itself back up to $940 yesterday, gold sank like a stone, to as low as $890 this morning.

“Gold got mixed support from the usual suspects yesterday,” writes Doug Casey, “with a sinking dollar unable to compensate for sharply lower oil prices. It was also likely caught up in a broad-based commodity sell-off that dragged down virtually everything except corn and natural gas.”

“Gold is up 9.7% year to date, and 38.2% for the past 12 months,” James Turk reminds us. “Silver is up 16.7% year to date, and 29.0% for the past 12 months. By any measure, these are spectacular results, and they place gold and silver among the best performing asset classes. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index has dropped 6.4% year to date and 13.4% over the past year, making it one of the worst performing asset classes.

“There has not been any meaningful or fundamental change to take the dollar off its present path, which leads to the fiat currency graveyard. In the absence of that action, one can only assume that over time, the dollar is going lower, and gold and silver are going higher. Therefore, continue to accumulate gold and silver, while minimizing your holdings of dollars, and, for that matter, any national currency.”

Following last year’s record number of acres planted, the USDA reported yesterday that farmers in the U.S. expect to plant some 86 million acres of corn this year. Soybeans will see a planting boost this year, too — up 18%.

“Yesterday’s USDA report,” beams Kevin Kerr, like an expectant father, “was as I expected, bullish corn and bearish soybeans. The planting intentions came in far below what was expected, and carryover stocks did, too. We see strong evidence that demand from ethanol combined with increased input costs for farmers is having the expected impact.

“In addition, the flooding and cold weather in the Midwestern Corn Belt could also have a major impact if planting is delayed dramatically. The bad news for consumers is that this likely means even higher food prices, with little end or solution in sight.”

Accordingly, Kevin is long corn in his Resource Trader Alert. If you would like to play these trends, you could have no better mentor than Kevin… he learned to trade these markets at the feet of renowned billionaire Paul Tudor Jones. Check out RTA here.

“I was surprised you did not express alarm over the Fed’s imminent takeover of all U.S. financial institutions,” writes a reader. “After all, it is a private banking corporation no more a part of the U.S. government than FedEx, whose true owners have never been revealed — and which has never been audited. How can the Treasury legally turn over everything to it? It’s like giving the fox the keys to the henhouse!”

The 5 responds: We’re no less alarmed than if we’d witnessed a car wreck heading south on I-95 at 4 a.m. in a rainstorm. But since we’ve been driving all night with kids in the car… the horror registers only on the inside. The rest is just action: We either attempt to get out of the way or slow down to see if we can help, preparing all the while to get wet.

For what it’s worth, the chairman of Federal Express is not appointed by the president, nor was the transportation company created by an act of Congress. In fact, to insinuate they are similar is an insult to Fred Smith, the company’s founder, whose antics and success are studied in business schools… ironically, of course, given that he flunked out himself.

Cheers,

by Addison Wiggin & Ian Mathias

The 5 Min. Forecast

P.S. Don’t forget… you’ve got just three days left to try Bulletin Board Elite for $1,000 off. Whether mainstream stocks are hitting their bottom or entering a prolonged bear market, there is always money to be made in the micro-cap world. Learn to trade explosive “jumper” stocks with editor Greg Geunthner’s help… at a huge discount only for the next two days. Click here for details.

Doug Casey: The fact that gold has moved above its 1980 high is meaningful only in an academic way; today’s dollar is worth only a fraction of a 1980 dollar. From here on, it’s best to avoid thinking about anything just in terms of dollars. What’s developing now is likely to be the biggest monetary crisis of the past 100 years, potentially the biggest since the U.S. Civil War. This isn’t a prediction, just an appraisal of the tumultuous possibilities that are opening up. Americans are going to have to learn to think more like Argentines: if an Argentine tried to keep track of value in the local peso, he’d be bankrupt in 5 years.

BG: There are those who agree with you about a possible crisis but believe we’ll see deflation instead of inflation, or at least deflation before inflation.

DC: What we’re facing is a monumental monetary crisis that can take one of two forms. It can be deflationary, where billions and billions of dollars are wiped out through bankruptcies and defaults, and the remaining dollars become worth more as a result. Or it can be inflationary, where the world’s central banks keep dollar assets from being wiped out by supporting the issuance of debt – which is what they’re currently doing, by propping up failing banks and homeowners who can’t pay their mortgages. Those are your two alternatives. You can have either one – it’s really a flip of the coin as to which you get.

It’s also possible you can have both at the same time. You could have deflation in some areas of the economy, such as real estate, which is happening now, and inflation in other areas of the economy, where prices are going up, as with food and oil.

I’m of the opinion that government is so big and so powerful now, and the average person – idiotically – relies on it so heavily, that much higher inflation is inevitable. They’re certainly going to do their very best to keep a deflationary collapse from happening, because they all remember what it was like in the U.S. in the 1930s. Yet not too many people think about Germany’s inflationary collapse in the 1920s. It was much more unpleasant.

Inflation is the enemy of the person who works, saves and invests. But it’s the friend of the speculator.

BG: Why do you think gold stocks have lagged while gold has taken off?

DC: Gold stocks are a play on gold. But they’re also stocks. The best environment for them is when both gold and the general market are moving up, and lately the stock market has been problematical. People are going to panic into gold, because it’s cash – money in the most basic form. Gold stocks are not money; they’re speculative vehicles. And despite the strength in gold, the costs and risks of finding and building mines have gone up just as fast in the last couple of years. There’s no necessity for them to move in lockstep with gold itself. That said, I think gold stocks are really going to howl as gold goes into the Mania stage.

BG: The water in the pot is definitely getting hotter. Where do you think gold is going this year?

DC: Gold has been in a bull market since 2001. It’s gone up, on average, about 25% per year compounded, and there’s absolutely no reason the bull market should stop now. On the contrary, there’s every reason to believe that the gold bull market, having gone through its Stealth stage and still being in its Wall of Worry stage, is going to hit the Mania stage. To sell now would be to leave the big money on the table.

My best advice is, be right and sit tight. And that means staying long until you see a golden bull tearing apart the New York Stock Exchange on the front cover of Newsweek magazine, at which point it will be time to sell.

BG: What price do you think gold will hit in 2008?

DC: Strictly gazing through a crystal ball, I think it’s going over $1,200, no problem.

BG: What about the long-term price for gold?

DC: Just to reach its previous high in purchasing power, gold will have to go over $2,500 – probably more like $3,000 after you discount the phoniness in the government’s CPI numbers. But because this crisis is much more serious than the one in the late 1970s and early ’80s and much more far-ranging, $3,000 is actually a fairly conservative number. I’ll say it again: gold is not just going through the roof, it’s going to the moon.

BG: What advice would you give to readers of Big Gold about how to invest in gold and gold stocks in the coming environment?

DC: The first thing is, you’ve got to have a lot of physical gold in the form of gold coins. Second, make sure a large chunk of those coins is outside the political jurisdiction where you live. If you live in the U.S., they’ve got to be outside the U.S. If you live in Canada, they’ve got to be outside Canada, and so forth. Third, gold stocks are definitely going to howl, so you definitely should have a good position in them.

As important as gold and gold stocks are, though, I suspect we’re going to see foreign exchange controls of some type or description in the years to come. That means if you don’t have assets outside your native country, you’re going to be caught like a lobster in a trap. I think it’s very important to diversify internationally. Buying foreign real estate is one prudent way to do so because, even though there’s been a worldwide property mania, there are still some places where property is very cheap, leaving plenty of upside. In addition, if you pick a locale where you’d like to live, you’ll have a comfortable place to wait things out – which is a serious plus, because I think things in the U.S. are going to get really ugly in the years to come. And most important, the government can’t make you repatriate foreign real estate.

BG: What if I don’t have the ability to buy real estate outside the country I live? I know you can have a foreign bank account and a safe deposit box, but I have to report those, so how does that help me?

DC: You have to report a bank account, but you don’t have to report a safe deposit box.

BG: What if I have over $10,000 of coins in that box?

DC: It doesn’t matter. It’s just like having a million dollars of foreign real estate – not reportable. Of course they can change these arbitrary laws – probably to make them more restrictive and invasive – at any time.

BG: Thanks, Doug, for the practical advice. Anything else you’d like to say to Big Gold readers?

DC: Hold on to your hat; you’re in for the ride of your life.

BIG GOLD is a monthly advisory from Casey Research, one of the nation’s oldest and most respected organizations providing unbiased research on natural resource investments.

Casey Research
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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