As Barack Obama closes in on the Democratic presidential nomination, investors should focus their minds around one uncomfortable fact: Whether it’s Obama or Republican John McCain who wins the White House, expect some policy changes that won’t sit well with investors - or with the U.S. economy.

It may not seem likely now, but GOP strategists believe 71-year-old Republican presidential candidate John McCain could beat Barack Obama in the presidential race — and by a margin exceeding President Bush’s Electoral College victory in 2004. This from Politico.com:

At first blush, McCain’s recent rough patch and the considerable financial disadvantage confronting him make such predictions seem absurd. Indeed, as Republicans experience their worst days since Watergate, those same GOP strategists are reticent to publicly tout the prospect of a sizable McCain victory for fear of looking foolish.

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Lowe’s Reports 1Q Declines; Oracle of Omaha for Obama; Microsoft, Yahoo at it Again; Staples Launches Hostile Takeover of Corporate Express; News Corp. Increases Premier Stake; Take-Two Snubs EA; Pacific Ethanol Stock Surges Despite Loss; Feds to Investigate DeVry.

Intrade is a website that allows you to bet on the outcomes on a variety of international events, from political elections and finance, to “Will Elliot Spitzer be Indicted on Felony Charges on or before June 30th”.

The traders on the website are currently betting with 89% odds that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee. They’re also placing a 37.9% chance that John McCain will win the presidential election in November. And, the chances of the US going into a recession in 2008 have fallen to 28% from a high of 76% back in early April.

With contests in both Indiana and North Carolina, today (Tuesday) probably marks the last of the crucial Democratic presidential primary election contests between senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.