So if the world’s major gold companies can’t find any new gold deposits in the ground, they’ll have to find them in the stock market…by buying companies that already possess proven reserves.

Therefore, forward-looking investors might want to take advantage of the current weakness in the gold share market to invest in some of the small mining companies that would be attractive takeover targets.

One of the most intriguing aspects of the current market is the dearth of major discoveries so far in this cycle. This despite record amounts of money spent on exploration since this bull market began in 2001.

Older and smarter minds than mine had predicted that the soaring price of gold would produce a new wave of exploration that would, eventually, produce a new wave of major discoveries.

But so far, as Barrick Gold’s CEO, Peter Munk, recently observed, “There have been virtually no new discoveries.” Only Aurelian (ARU: TSX) has landed a legitimate “elephant” deposit bagged. Unfortunately, the carcass of that particular elephant rests entirely within the sketchy outlines of the nation of Ecuador where the locals are currently circling like a pack of hungry hyenas.

It has been our contention that what was needed to light the fuse on the junior exploration stocks would be, in no specific order:

1. Sustained higher gold prices.

2. Improving financials and free cash flow of the major producers.

3. A discovery to heat the blood of the investing community.

So far, we have had (1) and we are beginning to see (2), but (3) has proved remarkably elusive.

Now, don’t misunderstand. You can have a whopper of a bull market in these stocks without the discovery — that was the case in the 1970s bull market. But a discovery that fires the imagination can jump-start things in a big way, no question about it.

Too bad nobody has found one recently.

In short, we appear to have reached the era of Peak Gold. Whereas a major discovery used to be 10 million ounces or more, the threshold for attention-getting discoveries these days has fallen to more along the lines of 1-3 million ounces…and even those are hardly falling off the trees.

Viewed from the perspective of an investor in the junior resource sector, this lack of discoveries means the fuse is lit — starting with straight-up supply and demand fundamentals — for a rocket shot tomorrow. Adding boosters to the rocket, we have a commodities bull market that shows no sign of ending anytime soon and, while the U.S. dollar will periodically rebound, it is not going to somehow reinvent itself as sound money in our lifetime.

Importantly, as you can clearly read between the lines in Chairman Munk’s words, once the majors get cashed up and get serious about replacing their reserves, they are going to have to look downstream to the juniors with discoveries…even if those discoveries are below the five-million-ounce threshold they previously required to even consider taking an ore body into production.

Of course, lowering the threshold on deposit size will require trade-offs. For example, in order to be considered for an acquisition, a smaller deposit will almost certainly have to be near surface and open-pittable. It will also have to be near good infrastructure, and located in a jurisdiction with good laws and reasonable taxation. There is, in this situation, an opportunity and a risk.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~Special~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Next Bear Stearns

The horrible financial practices that have already taken down some top investment banks were not as rare as we may have hoped. In fact, shoddy bookkeeping and risky business maneuvers were being used in several financial institutions.

Now the next victim is about to be claimed. Which financial giant is going down next? Click here to find out…

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Starting with the latter, if your portfolio now includes companies going after deposits in the one- to five-million-ounce range, you need to make sure they are not in a remote location that would require a massive infrastructure investment.

As for the opportunity, while the odds and the amount of exploration spending still favor that we’ll see the discovery of at least one and maybe two monster deposits in this cycle (there are a couple of companies advancing projects with that potential), and early shareholders will make fortunes as a result, there has rarely been a better time to invest in junior exploration companies with modestly sized projects in good locations. That said, you should still be focusing only on projects with at least two million ounces, or the strong potential of same.

In other words, take the opportunity in these down markets to invest in the kinds of junior mining companies that major mining company might want to acquire… That’s where the big money will be made as the gold market gathers steam again.

Regards,
David Galland, Casey Research

Greg’s Endnote: If the falling dollar wasn’t enough to send the price of gold ever-higher, the idea of its relative scarcity certainly will. And what happens when the idea of peak gold hits the mainstream? Can $2,000 gold be that far behind? I don’t think so. Click here to see just why gold could soon be doubling in price…

Source: Where There’s Gold

Right now some metals are poised to reach new all-time highs because of production deficits (aka lack of supply), while other metals still remain hostage to an onslaught of new supplies – so their prices are dropping.

Silver falls in that “too much supply” camp. More than any other precious metal this year, silver’s prices will be put to the test. We’re all waiting to see if silver’s price can hold up under the growing bombardment of new production.

Over the last five years, silver prices have surged more than 250% to just under US$17 an ounce at the moment. On May 20th, my Commodity Trend Alert (CTA) service, turned “neutral” on silver, after my CTA subscribers earned big profits on several existing open silver positions since 2003.

But the tides have turned. And now rising supplies are forecasting a sizable silver correction.

Meanwhile, gold is still soaring. Gold production peaked in 2001 and continues to decline this year, which is VERY bullish for gold prices. But that’s certainly not the case for silver and to a lesser extent, palladium.

Could Silver Break Away from Gold?

Gold and silver generally track each other in a bull or bear market. When gold goes up, silver goes up and vice versa. But in this case, a divergence might be possible, if only temporarily.

In the base metals arena, a similar price divergence has already happened after seven years of generally spectacular gains for the complex. These include namely copper, lead, tin, nickel, iron-ore (steel), aluminum and zinc. Over the last 18 months, nickel and zinc prices have crashed while tin, lead and copper prices have posted gains. It’s not impossible for metals to break away from the primary uptrend if supplies begin to saturate individual fundamentals.

Over the last 12 months, gold prices have risen 37% while silver has gained 31%. Both metals continue to track each other on a total return basis.

But thus far in 2008, gold prices have risen just 8% while silver has rallied 15%. The fundamentals, however, don’t support silver’s higher returns this year.

Will Investor Demand Support Silver?

Gold is rapidly approaching its first year of net supply deficit while silver is increasingly becoming a net surplus commodity. And according to textbook economics, rising supplies eventually dilute a rising price trend and drag prices back down.

Considering the demand for both silver jewelry and silver industrial supplies is waning, the bulk of global demand for silver will have to come from investors going forward. This will come mainly from exchange traded funds like SLV or the iShares Silver Trust in the United States and other silver ETFs traded in London and Zurich.

I have serious doubts investor demand will continue to support silver at these levels without suffering a major correction first.

The iShares Silver Trust has already seen a massive increase of silver accumulation since 2006 – over 180 million ounces. Silver supply has surged since 2001, according to GFMS, a precious metals consultancy firm, rising to 670.6 million ounces. Unless investor demand consumes this rising supply – and more is projected in 2008, then prices will decline. That’s because industrial demand has probably peaked.

Last year, industrial demand for silver increased 7.2% to a record 455.3 million ounces, according to the 2008 World Silver Survey. That offset the long-term decline in demand for traditional usage, mainly in photography, jewelry and silverware.

But another survey by Barclays Capital points to alarm bells for the silver market. The survey shows new supplies just hit the market this year. Barclays believes mine production will grow by 6.5% in 2008 and faster than last year’s increase of 3.6%. That could create possibly the largest surplus of silver in over 20 years.

A disappointing initial public offering (IPO) in London is another bearish signal for silver bulls.

Mexican silver company, Fresnillo PLC, went public in London earlier this month and declined 7.5% on its debut – that’s a bad sign. Despite stronger silver prices this year, the IPO was not received well in the markets.

Gold and Platinum: Precious Metal Kings

Though I’m not predicting a long-term silver decline, I think it’s time to reduce your exposure during current price strength. The big picture for sister metals, gold and platinum, however, remains incredibly bullish because supplies continue to tighten.

Older and smarter minds than mine, minds resting in the cranium of Explorers’ League members, for instance, have been convinced that a number of major discoveries would be announced.

But so far, other than a small handful that appear to hold the stuff, there has only been one legitimate elephant bagged; by the team of Aurelian (T.ARU). Unfortunately, the carcass of that particular elephant rests entirely within the sketchy outlines of the nation of Ecuador where the locals are currently circling like a pack of hungry hyenas.

It has been our contention that what was needed to light the fuse on the junior exploration stocks would be, in no specific order:

1. Sustained higher gold prices.
2. Improving financials and free cash flow of the major producers.
3. A discovery to heat the blood of the investing community.

So far, we have had (1) and we are beginning to see (2), but (3) has proved remarkably elusive.

Now, don’t misunderstand. You can have a whopper of a bull market in these stocks without the discovery – that was the case in the 1970s bull market. But a discovery that fires the imagination can jump-start things in a big way, no question about it.

Evidence of that statement is provided by the gold share bull market of the mid-1990s, the most powerful to date, which occurred against a back drop of flat to falling gold prices. In case some of the big winners from that market have slipped from your memory, they include returns such as; Cartaway, up 26,040%; Pacific Amber, up 4,376%; Arequipa, up 5,692%, and so on and so forth.

So, What’s Going On?

According to MineWeb, Peter Munk, the somewhat unpopular chairman and acting CEO of Barrick Gold, the world’s largest gold producer, stated at the company’s recent AGM that there have been “virtually no new discoveries.”

While we might disagree around the edges of that statement, Chairman Munk is technically correct in that the level of discoveries being made is a small fraction of that needed to replace the depleting reserves of the gold producers.

In short, we appear to have reached the era of Peak Gold. Whereas a major discovery used to be 10 million ounces or more, the threshold for attention-getting discoveries these days has fallen to more along the lines of 1 to 3 million ounces… and even those are hardly falling off the trees.

Viewed from the perspective of an investor in the junior resource sector, this lack of discoveries means the fuse is lit – starting with straight-up supply and demand fundamentals – for a rocket shot tomorrow. Adding boosters to the rocket, we have a commodities bull market that shows no sign of ending anytime soon and, while the U.S. dollar will periodically rebound, it is not going to somehow reinvent itself as sound money in our lifetime.

Importantly, as you can clearly read between the lines in Chairman Munk’s words, once the majors get cashed up and serious about replacing their reserves, they are going to have to look downstream to the juniors with discoveries… even if those discoveries are below the 5-million-ounce threshold they previously required to even consider taking an ore body into production.

A Risk and an Opportunity

Of course, lowering the threshold on deposit size will require trade-offs. For example, in order to be considered for an acquisition, a smaller deposit will almost certainly have to be near surface and open-pittable. It will also have to be near good infrastructure, and located in a jurisdiction with good laws and reasonable taxation. There is, in this situation, an opportunity and a risk.

Starting with the latter, if your portfolio now includes companies going after deposits in the one- to five-million-ounce range, you need to make sure they are not in a remote location, or will require going underground or building a mill to process sulfides. (Under 1 million ounces? Fuggedaboudit!)

As for the opportunity, while the odds and the amount of exploration spending still favor that we’ll see the discovery of at least one and maybe two monster deposits in this cycle (there are a couple of companies advancing projects with that potential), and early shareholders will make fortunes as a result, there has rarely been a better time to invest in junior exploration companies with modestly sized projects in good locations. That said, you should still be focusing only on projects with at least 2 million ounces, or the strong potential of same.

In other words, take the opportunity in these down markets to focus on getting positioned ahead of the majors… that’s where the big money will be made as things gather steam again going forward.

David Galland is managing director of Casey Research, publishers of the International Speculator, now in its 28th year. The current edition includes “Courting the Majors,” a feature on what attributes the major mining companies are looking for in a junior explorer. All new subscribers are invited to give the International Speculator a three-month trial with an unquestioning 100% money-back guarantee. Learn more and sign up now to receive the current edition.

By David Galland, Casey Research

Source: Gold, What Gold?

For the tale of the tape, the TSX Exchange added 0.98%, while the TSX Gold Index rallied 0.4% and the TSX Venture Exchange, Canada’s largest junior exploration bourse, ended the session up 0.22% with declining issuers still out paced the advancing issues this time by a 529 to 472 margin with slowing volume of 168 million shares traded.

The world’s largest gold miner, Barrick Gold earned $514 million, or $0.59 a share in the quarter of 2008 a 29% jump over last year’s quarter. The previously well known gold hedger received a price of $925 an ounce of gold in the quarter. Sales in the quarter rang in at $1.96 billion as the company produced 1.7 million ounces of gold at total cash costs of $393 an ounce. All was not rosy however, as this figure is down from the 2 million ounces produced in the same period of 2007 when cash costs came in at $309 an ounce. Barrick ended the day down C$0.01 at C$39.40.

Meanwhile AngloGold Ashanti fared much better after reporting earnings of $105 million for the first quarter of 2008 and production of 1.2 million ounces of gold. Total cash costs for the South African company came in at $430 per ounce and importantly, Anglo finally announced that its La Colosa project in Colombia holds an inferred resource of 12.9 million ounces of gold within 468.8 million tonnes grading 0.86 gram gold per tonne. Anglo ended the session up $3.50 in New York at C$38.31.

Shares in VMS Ventures rallied on news that the junior cut 1.09% copper over 102.5 metres at its Reed Project Discovery Zone in Manitoba. VMS ended the day up C$0.09 at C$0.60.

It was a good day for Sprott Resource as the company inked a deal with Altius to explore for potash in the St. George’s basin in southwestern Newfoundland. Under the deal, Sprott can earn a 60% stake by spending C$2.5 million over 4 years. Sprott ended the session up C$0.52 at C$3.75.

Profit taking was the story of the day for Goldsource Mines. After running up from C$0.30 to nearly C$5 per share on speculation of a major coal find in Saskatchewan, Goldsource ended the day down C$0.26 at C$4.29.

All lights were green for the Canadian markets as investors start to become believers that commodity prices won’t be falling off a cliff anytime soon. We will see what Wednesday trading has in store.

Top of those fundamentals he lists, is that there is less and less being produced. Gold production peaked in 2001. It was down by 3% in 2006, by 1% last year. South African production has been falling the fastest. Goodness knows what the regular power outages are going to do to its 2008’s figures!

Mine supply will fall by 10-15%

Letting us in on one of the bits of prime information to which top fund managers are privy, Graham Birch quoted Barrick Gold. Analysis by this top gold producer indicates that “mine supply will fall by 10-15% over the next five years as there is a lack of new production coming on line!”

Exploration spending took off in a big way in 2002 when the miners realised that supplies were running out. Last year the bills ran to over $4bn. Yet the “gold found” line goes remorseless down on the charts. It pitifully only managed to hold around 14m ounces last year. More exploration, the message comes over loud and clear, does not equal more ounces.

Everything is getting more difficult. Not so long ago it might have taken three to four years to get a mine up and going. Now, with global shortages of skilled people and equipment, increasing regulation and environmental obstacles, the whole process is protracted.

Continues below

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What is NOT getting more difficult is buying into gold! As Graham Birch pointed out, gold Exchange Traded Funds now account for over 800 tonnes. This makes them the 7th largest holder. And you and me and other small investors are big holders of funds like his. Pension funds don’t seem to understand about making money!

So, we all asked the birthday team, what have they been buying? What’s in the fund that’s made it the most successful unit trust since its launch?

As you’d expect, Graham Birch says they work pretty hard and are “active managers.” He points out that while his fund rose by 2,603%, gold’s gain was 95% over those 20 years.

Picking the smaller and frontier miners

ML Gold and General has been moving into smaller miners and those in the “frontier” territories of China and Russia. Declining gold production has hit the Big Four producers most heavily. And it has spread out from gold into other precious metals, particularly platinum.

His top winner, he says, has been Impala – the world’s second largest platinum producer. Then comes Industrias Penoles, the Mexican silver producer. After that comes, one that he is adding to right now, China’s gold miner Zijin. Then there is Peruvian gold and silver producer Minas Buenaventura.

With $3.2 bn under management, the fund has to hold a spread of companies in the 70% that is in gold mining shares. These, he says, are steady holdings. There is not a lot of movement in the fund’s investments as it is happy with is choices.

The largest gold holding is North American gold miner Kinross, then comes another North American, Barrick Gold. Indonesia’s Lihir Gold is next on the list, then there is Australian Newcrest Mining. The rest, apart from those in the “winners” list are South African Gold Fields and North Americans Goldcorp and Agnico Eagle.

Platinum is represented among the top ten in the form of Johnson Matthey, 4.7% of the total. It is the only non-gold there, and is not even a miner, but a highly sophisticated trader and product producer (like catalysts).

He does hold some bullion. ETFs form around 2.5% of the fund.

Investors are giving the gold price momentum

So, what else? At the moment, he acknowledges, it is investment money that is making gold go round. Investment demand is changing the market dynamics. In 2001 it was 9% of demand. Last year investors had soared to 20% of the market.

Jewellery buyers are being put off by the fact that their money is getting them fewer ounces. This is especially the case in Asia, where gold is bought by weight. Yet the rising middle classes of the developing world still like their gold jewellery. There is no reason to think they’ve gone from the market for good. One thing is for sure, he says. The market environment is “still a long way from a price-related response for the producers!”

So gold will go on getting rarer!

Keep mining.

Erin and Isabel.