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		<title>Who Will Rescue the Rescuers?</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/who-will-rescue-the-rescuers/5794</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 20:26:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bill Bonner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Politics & Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[B&B]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bill Bonner]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>The Europeans are getting in on the act…it doesn&#8217;t take a genius to see there was going to be Hell to pay. The end of euphoria…if Warren Buffett&#8217;s warning Congress that they need to take action &#8211; you know we&#8217;re in trouble. Bush urges Congress to take action…what&#8217;s bad for the dollar is good for gold…and more!</p>
<p>Everything is happening just as it should &#8211; alas!</p>
<p>Now the Europeans are getting into the act &#8211; albeit only in a minor, supporting role. <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=EBR:FORB">Fortis</a> &#8211; a huge Belgian/Dutch financial company &#8211; is going bust, says today&#8217;s paper. And public officials of at least three countries are trying to rescue it. According to the Financial Times, the firm is likely to be nationalized by Luxembourg,&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Europeans are getting in on the act…it doesn&#8217;t take a genius to see there was going to be Hell to pay. The end of euphoria…if Warren Buffett&#8217;s warning Congress that they need to take action &#8211; you know we&#8217;re in trouble. Bush urges Congress to take action…what&#8217;s bad for the dollar is good for gold…and more!<span id="more-5794"></span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Everything is happening just as it should &#8211; alas!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Now the Europeans are getting into the act &#8211; albeit only in a minor, supporting role. <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=EBR:FORB">Fortis</a> &#8211; a huge Belgian/Dutch financial company &#8211; is going bust, says today&#8217;s paper. And public officials of at least three countries are trying to rescue it. According to the Financial Times, the firm is likely to be nationalized by Luxembourg, Belgium and the Netherlands all at once.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">This will be a first &#8211; a company taken over by politicians who speak at least three different languages. We&#8217;d call it an &#8220;internationalization.&#8221;</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Meanwhile, over on this foggy island, the government is preparing to nationalize another major bank &#8211; Bradford and Bingley (LON:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Bradford+and+Bingley">BB</a>). Nervous savers are taking their money out of B&amp;B, leaving the firm dangerously short of cash, says the FT.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">But it didn&#8217;t take a genius to see that there would be Hell to pay. That&#8217;s what always happens when you reach the top of a credit bubble. People may spend more than they earn for years; eventually they reach the point where they can&#8217;t go on. And lenders and investors inevitably go overboard too. They&#8217;re so eager to earn a fee, they stop worrying about whether the loan will ever be repaid.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">But the geniuses didn&#8217;t see it coming. They were too impressed by their own theories and their own financial models…and their own multi-million dollar bonuses.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">It fell to us here at The <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Daily Reckoning</a> &#8211; poor, neglected, lonely as we are &#8211; to fly the &#8220;Crash Alert&#8221; flag day after day…and to say the obvious to anyone who would listen: &#8220;this too shall pass.&#8221;</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">And now, according to the New York Times, it is passing:</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">&#8220;The End of Euphoria,&#8221; the Times puts it. &#8220;Bill comes due for excesses of past 15 years.&#8221;</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">But where&#8217;s the surprise? Mr. Market always has a surprise in store. And he always brings it out when you least expect it.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">So far, the surprise is that the financial sector has been hit harder than expected. Each time an institution goes bust, the feds react with more money and more credit. Each time, stocks rally and word goes out that the crisis is over.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Then, another institution goes belly up. And now Warren Buffett is apparently on the phone &#8211; according to our sources at the Financial Times &#8211; warning Congress that if they don&#8217;t take action on the bailout plan things could get a lot worse.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Yes, that is all part of the program too. When people get the bill for their own mistakes they naturally want to pass it off to someone else. Who better than that chump of last resort &#8211; the taxpayer? The bill for the Paulson bailout plan could come to $1 trillion. At least, that&#8217;s the estimate of Ken Rogoff, a Harvard economist. Let&#8217;s see, that&#8217;s about $12,000 for every family in the country. Yet, who complains? Where are the riots? Who&#8217;s got a spare $12,000 to send to the feds so they can pass it along to Wall Street?</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">It doesn&#8217;t seem to matter to anyone…people figure it&#8217;s all &#8220;funny money&#8221; anyway. And they worry that if it&#8217;s not forthcoming, well…maybe Warren Buffett is right. And maybe Paulson and Larry Summers (opining today in the Financial Times) are right too &#8211; maybe the bureaucrats will do such a good job of managing this program that it will make a profit. Which gives us an idea: why not take TARP &#8211; as the program is called &#8211; public? Give public officials an opportunity to make some money for a change…let them put their own money into the rescue plan, along with the taxpayers&#8217; money.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Let&#8217;s see what the prospectus will say: &#8216;Firm will buy up Wall Street&#8217;s mistakes at above-market prices; later, when all this blows over, these &#8216;assets&#8217; will be sold back to Wall Street.&#8217;</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Let&#8217;s see how much of his own money Hank Paulson would bet on this business model!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">No, they&#8217;re not likely to take TARP public. Too bad. We&#8217;d love to sell it short. Too bad also because it would nice to give Mr. Market a chance to sort this out himself. He&#8217;d probably mark down stocks, derivative financial assets, bonds and houses &#8211; fast. But so what? &#8220;Liquidate the farmers…liquidate labor…liquidate the railroads…liquidate investors…&#8221; &#8211; in 1929, that was US Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon&#8217;s idea of how to let Mr. Market handle a financial crisis. Let it be! Let Mr. Market do his savage cleaning work. Then, the economy can begin to grow again &#8211; on a healthier base.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">But that&#8217;s not going to happen. Once again, the fix is in. This one bigger than any before…</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">&#8220;We must regulate,&#8221; says Dominique Strauss-Kahn, director of the IMF (perhaps forgetting that Fortis was regulated by hundreds of bureaucrats in dozens of different countries….).</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">&#8220;The time has come to save capitalism from the capitalists,&#8221; writes Luigi Zingales of the University of Chicago.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Thank God for the bureaucrats. The economists. The Wall Street pros. Now, they&#8217;re going to &#8220;rescue&#8221; us…</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">But wait a minute…</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">…wasn&#8217;t it the US government that set up Fannie (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=fnm">FNM</a>) and Freddie (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=FRE">FRE</a>) with an implied guarantee?</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">…wasn&#8217;t it the SEC that was set up to regulate Wall Street and prohibit the sale of slimy &#8220;investments?&#8221;</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">…weren&#8217;t these same economists the ones who thought the U.S. financial system was the best in the world…because it was so &#8220;dynamic…inventive…and flexible?&#8221;</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">…isn&#8217;t it the Fed itself that has been lending money below the inflation rate since 2002? And wasn&#8217;t that the major source of &#8220;liquidity&#8221; that created such a huge credit bubble?</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">…and wasn&#8217;t Hank Paulson the head man at Wall Street&#8217;s most go-go firm when all this stuff was going on? Do you remember hearing him warn investors or lawmakers that the whole Vesuvius of hyper-credit was going to blow up? We don&#8217;t…</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Yes, dear reader, as predicted in these pages…we are witnessing an epochal shift &#8211; from capitalism to socialism…from markets to politics…from subtle swindle to naked larceny…from white collar grifters to stick-up men…from slick fraud to brute force.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">And then…who will rescue us from the rescuers?</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">*** This morning, Americans awoke to President Bush, &#8220;urging&#8221; Congress to pass the bailout. The bailout will &#8220;keep the crisis in our financial industry from spreading,&#8221; he said from the White House. &#8220;We will make clear that the U.S. is serious about restoring our confidence and stability in our financial system.&#8221;</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Obviously, Congress is going to pass the bailout…but what does it mean long-term? Our intrepid correspondent, Byron King, offers his insight:</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">&#8220;[The bailout is] $700 billion that the nation does not have and cannot afford. The money will go to bail out banks that were run into the dirt by greedy idiots. It&#8217;s bad for the dollar.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">&#8220;And if Congress does not approve the bailout? I guess the economy will just crash and burn. Or maybe not. It&#8217;s still bad for the dollar. It&#8217;s a good thing we all have gold bars buried out in the backyard, eh?</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">&#8220;One way or another, the dollar is on the verge of a rapid and sharp loss of purchasing power. So precious metals should do well. And energy is going to get more expensive, because oil will not stay in the $110 range if the dollar tanks. So the good side of the dollar decline is that domestic sources of energy ought to do well. That&#8217;s good for the geothermal companies in the ESI portfolio.&#8221;</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">To have a look at Byron&#8217;s Energy &amp; Scarcity Investor portfolio for yourself, <a href="http://www.web-purchases.com/ESI_Pentagon_Portfolio/EESIJA01/landing.html">see here</a>.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">*** Here&#8217;s a sobering detail: For the last 15 years, the U.S. money supply has grown about twice as fast as GDP. Federal government liabilities, meanwhile, have grown three times as fast. It now has more financial obligations than assets. It is, effectively, broke.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">And here is another cup of strong coffee: U.S. debts are now compounding negatively like a Neg Am mortgage, that delightfully fatal confection invented at height of the housing bubble. Some house buyers didn&#8217;t even pay enough to cover the interest on their mortgage; the missed interest payments were added to the mortgage itself, causing it to grow automatically. Exponentially.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">We don&#8217;t know what Professor Chris Martenson is a professor of. But he has done the world a favor with his description of what happens when things grow exponentially, rather than arithmetically.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Imagine you could make a football stadium watertight, he writes. Then, imagine that you put a magic drop of water in the center…a drop of water that doubles every minute…so that after six minutes or so, you&#8217;d have about enough water to fill a thimble. Now how long would it take before the stadium filled, he asks?</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">We&#8217;re not going to leave you in suspense. For the first 45 minutes, you can walk around the stadium and barely get your feet wet. But in the next 4 minutes the stadium fills and you drown.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">*** Clive Crook in the Financial Times:</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">&#8220;If one idea caused the subprime meltdown and the subsequent financial emergency, it was the belief that house prices could not fall. Nationally, they had not dropped since the 1930s, it was often pointed out: it simply could not happen. A similar complacency now attends discussion of the fiscal outlook.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">&#8220;It is assumed that the US can borrow without limit. In fact, the US has a budget constraint &#8211; less binding than that of other countries, to be sure, because of the dollar&#8217;s reserve currency status and other factors, but there nonetheless. This limit is about to be tested, and if the global capital markets decides enough is enough, the challenges confronting the Treasury and the Federal Reserve will make even last week&#8217;s exertions seem mild.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">&#8220;The next administration&#8217;s fiscal options are vanishing before our eyes. Somebody should tell the candidates and the country.&#8221;</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Until tomorrow,</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text"><a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/author/bill-bonner/"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Bill Bonner</a><br />
<em>The Daily Reckoning</em></span></p>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Issues/2008/DR092908.html">Who Will Rescue the Rescuers?</a></p>
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		<title>Bailout Plan DOA, Investors Pummel Stocks, but Dollar Rallies</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/bailout-plan-doa-investors-pummel-stocks-but-dollar-rallies/5819</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/bailout-plan-doa-investors-pummel-stocks-but-dollar-rallies/5819#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 17:59:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Doug Casey</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US Dollar & Forex Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[B&B]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Doug Casey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FORB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japanese Yen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US stocks]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>In the currency market, the dollar pushed higher against the euro. Late Monday, the euro was trading at $1.4477 vs. $1.4608 on Friday. The British pound was also off, by 1.5%, to $1.8147. </p>
<p>The dollar held up remarkably well, considering the 777-point crash in the Dow—history’s largest in raw numbers—after the big Paulson bailout was rejected by Congress. Unsurprisingly, that body was sharply divided along re-election rather than party lines. With members getting an earful from angry constituents, those in tough fights for their seats voted <em>against</em>, those in safe seats <em>for</em>.</p>
<p>In any case, the bailout is DOA for the moment, even as the administration plots how to resurrect it, or to free up money in ways that don’t require&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the currency market, the dollar pushed higher against the euro. Late Monday, the euro was trading at $1.4477 vs. $1.4608 on Friday. The British pound was also off, by 1.5%, to $1.8147. <span id="more-5819"></span></p>
<p>The dollar held up remarkably well, considering the 777-point crash in the Dow—history’s largest in raw numbers—after the big Paulson bailout was rejected by Congress. Unsurprisingly, that body was sharply divided along re-election rather than party lines. With members getting an earful from angry constituents, those in tough fights for their seats voted <em>against</em>, those in safe seats <em>for</em>.</p>
<p>In any case, the bailout is DOA for the moment, even as the administration plots how to resurrect it, or to free up money in ways that don’t require Congressional approval. Whither the buck as the Paulson proposal lies in ashes is anyone’s guess, but it’s suffered little so far.</p>
<p>“The U.S. dollar weakened against the Japanese yen, but its strength against the euro and British pound indicate that the concerns for those currency pairs now shift to the prospect of further bank failures in Europe,” said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT Forex.</p>
<p>Lien’s concerns are well taken. The day saw European governments step up to help <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=EBR%3AFORB">Fortis</a>, <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Bradford+%26+Bingley">Bradford &amp; Bingley</a> and Icelandic bank Glitnir recapitalize. Brussels-based Fortis got an 11.2 billion euro injection from the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg; the UK Treasury will nationalize most of Bradford &amp; Bingley; and the Icelandic government has bought a 75% stake in Glitnir.</p>
<p>“At this point, debating whether the euro area is in recession or not is simply useless,” said Aurelio Maccario, chief euro-zone economist at UniCredit MIB in Milan. “With financial markets experiencing a serious risk of seizure and the real economy continuing to lose momentum, we think that the outlook is getting gloomier by the day.”</p>
<p><a href="http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayDrpArchives.php">Source: Bailout Plan DOA, Investors Pummel Stocks, but Dollar Rallies</a></p>
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		<title>No Economic Recovery Until the Second Half of 2009</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/uk-on-verge-of-deep-recession/3645</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/uk-on-verge-of-deep-recession/3645#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Jul 2008 14:46:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lord William Rees-Mogg</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[B&B]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[British politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lord William Rees-Mogg]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>The outlook for the US economy isn&#8217;t pretty.</p>
<p>As we reported earlier this morning, economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimate <a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/more-market-trouble-ahead-as-perfect-storm-returns/3653" title="Read more at ContrarianProfits.com">US growth will slow to 0.5 percent</a> from October to December.</p>
<p>The US economy is not yet officially a recession. But most commentators are treating it as such, including Lord William Rees-Mogg, former editor of The Times and regular contributor to The <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Daily Reckoning</a> UK. Lord Rees-Mogg says there won&#8217;t be a recovery until the first half of 2009&#8230;</p>
<p></p>
<blockquote><p>The downturn in the global economy is now 11 months old, if one takes the subprime crisis of August 2007 as the starting point. It has spread like the forest fires in California, establishing itself in one area after another, putting out tongues of fire that extend&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The outlook for the US economy isn&#8217;t pretty.</p>
<p>As we reported earlier this morning, economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimate <a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/more-market-trouble-ahead-as-perfect-storm-returns/3653" title="Read more at ContrarianProfits.com">US growth will slow to 0.5 percent</a> from October to December.</p>
<p>The US economy is not yet officially a recession. But most commentators are treating it as such, including Lord William Rees-Mogg, former editor of The Times and regular contributor to The <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Daily Reckoning</a> UK. Lord Rees-Mogg says there won&#8217;t be a recovery until the first half of 2009&#8230;</p>
<p><span id="more-3645"></span></p>
<blockquote><p>The downturn in the global economy is now 11 months old, if one takes the subprime crisis of August 2007 as the starting point. It has spread like the forest fires in California, establishing itself in one area after another, putting out tongues of fire that extend the area of the fires, always a step ahead of the firefighters.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>The housing and mortgage crisis is far from having burnt itself out. The oil price crisis also started in August 2007, when the oil price was only $70 per barrel, half what it now is. The price of other commodities, particularly foodstuffs, has moved with the price of oil. Equity markets behaved as though they were immune from the recession. That pretense lasted until last October.</p>
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<p align="left">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</p>
<p align="left">Since that time, the U.S. stock market has fallen by 20%. Only the art market seems to be exempt, with billionaires buying conceptual art at speculative prices. This may reflect the sheer weight of billionaire money, or it may follow the precedent of the art market being the lagging indicator among all asset classes.</p>
<p align="left">Everyone would like to know how long — and, implicitly, how deep — the 2007 recession is going to be. There are always commentators who think that the end of recession is about six months away. In 2007, there were those who expected a recovery in the second half of 2008; that expectation has now shifted back into 2009, with the recovery starting in the second half of next year and persisting through 2010. Hardly anybody now expects even the first signs of a recovery to appear before the November presidential election in the United States, the fist big political date. If the American voters follow precedent, they will elect a Democrat as president; since the classic case of Herbert Hoover in 1932, economic depression has usually led to the incumbent party being turned out.</p>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.whiskeyandgunpowder.com/Archives/2008/20080709.html">Still Burning</a></p></blockquote>
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		<title>Make Sure You Check Who’s Running Your Funds</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/make-sure-you-check-who%e2%80%99s-running-your-funds/2944</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Jun 2008 21:49:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Merryn Somerset Webb</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International Investing]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[B&B]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Northern Rock]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sub Prime Crisis]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>I’m reading a strange little book this week. It is called <em><a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/redirect.html?ie=UTF8&#38;location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.co.uk%2FFall-Northern-Rock-insiders-Britains%2Fdp%2F190564180X%3Fie%3DUTF8%26s%3Dbooks%26qid%3D1212676403%26sr%3D8-1&#38;tag=mone051-21&#38;linkCode=ur2&#38;camp=1634&#38;creative=6738">The Fall of Northern Rock</a></em> and is written by an ex-employee of the now nationalised bank called Brian Walters. I’m not quite sure why Walters was the one commissioned to write the book, for the simple reason that he doesn’t seem to have any more inside knowledge into the affair than the rest of us. </p>
<p>  	 	  	The book is peppered with confessions of ignorance. He picked up not a single warning signal from the beginning of the debacle to the end. In early 2007, he thought nothing could stop the bank’s “fantastic progress”. When the share price started to fall later in the year, he assumed, along with his colleagues, that&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’m reading a strange little book this week. It is called <em><a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/redirect.html?ie=UTF8&amp;location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.co.uk%2FFall-Northern-Rock-insiders-Britains%2Fdp%2F190564180X%3Fie%3DUTF8%26s%3Dbooks%26qid%3D1212676403%26sr%3D8-1&amp;tag=mone051-21&amp;linkCode=ur2&amp;camp=1634&amp;creative=6738">The Fall of Northern Rock</a><img src="http://www.assoc-amazon.co.uk/e/ir?t=mone051-21&amp;l=ur2&amp;o=2" style="border-style: none ! important; margin: 0px" border="0" height="1" width="1" /></em> and is written by an ex-employee of the now nationalised bank called Brian Walters. I’m not quite sure why Walters was the one commissioned to write the book, for the simple reason that he doesn’t seem to have any more inside knowledge into the affair than the rest of us. <span id="more-2944"></span></p>
<p><!-- START IN PAGE TEXT BOX -->  	 	  	<!-- END IN PAGE TEXT BOX -->The book is peppered with confessions of ignorance. He picked up not a single warning signal from the beginning of the debacle to the end. In early 2007, he thought nothing could stop the bank’s “fantastic progress”. When the share price started to fall later in the year, he assumed, along with his colleagues, that the media, jealous of the bank’s previous successes, had “it in” for it.</p>
<p>Walters knew little of the bank’s funding methods and was “blissfully unaware” that the sub-prime crisis in America might threaten Northern Rock – as, indeed, were his bosses, who launched a new discount tracker for buy-to-let investors in August 2007. And even in early September, just before all hell broke loose in Newcastle, he was busy flying off for a holiday in San Francisco with, as he says himself, very little idea of “what was really going on behind the scenes”.</p>
<p>It all seems rather extraordinary given that, although he wasn’t exactly a board director, Walters was head of commercial lending for the Leeds office, and given that even the most junior of financial journalists and analysts across the City had a very good idea of exactly what was going on behind the scenes.</p>
<p>Still, compare it with this week’s debacle – the profits warning and <a href="http://www.moneyweek.com/file/47066/bradford--bingleys-300m-rights-issue.html">bungled rights issue at Bradford &amp; Bingley</a> (B&amp;B) – and it doesn’t seem so odd after all. It looks like a mixture of total lack of awareness and mild stupidity is par for the course across the UK banking sector. Just like Northern Rock, B&amp;B has clearly spent the last few years in total denial – refusing to accept that the <a href="http://www.moneyweek.com/file/98/property.html">housing market</a> was in a bubble and hence fuelling the fire of its own destruction by providing the credit to keep the bubble growing.</p>
<p>And just like Northern Rock, senior management appeared to be blissfully unaware of the all-too-obvious risks to their business. At the start of this year, even as volumes – the canary in the coal mine to the housing market – collapsed across the country, B&amp;B announced that it was relying on growth in its buy-to-let business to keep things going. Whoops.</p>
<p>But just as delusional as the bankers are those who were still holding B&amp;B shares on Monday when their bad news at last appeared. Who didn’t know about the credit crunch? That buy-to-let in Britain is bust? That falling house prices and rising mortgage rates always lead to arrears and defaults? And who had forgotten that bubbles always end in corruption (B&amp;B also announced on Monday that they’d lost £15m to mortgage fraud)? You might want to check one of them isn’t running your pension fund.</p>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.moneyweek.com/file/48303/why-you-should-check-whos-running-your-funds.html">Make Sure You Check Who’s Running Your Funds</a></p>
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		<title>Why the Buy-to-Let Carnage is Just Beginning</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/why-the-buy-to-let-carnage-is-just-beginning/2759</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/why-the-buy-to-let-carnage-is-just-beginning/2759#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Jun 2008 13:53:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Stepek</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Real Estate Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[B&B]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Banking Sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BOE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Citi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HBoS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Cap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Royal Bank Of Scotland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TPG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ubs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UK housing market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[uk mortgages]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UK real estate]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Banks haven’t exactly been covering themselves in glory recently.  The sector has gone from one pratfall to another ever since Northern Rock first warned it was in trouble last summer. </p>
<p>U-turns on rights issues, never-ending writedowns – there’s been plenty of badly handled mishaps to choose from.</p>
<p>But even by the low standards of the banking sector, Bradford &#38; Bingley (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=LON%3ABB" target="_blank">LON:BB</a>) has been particularly hapless. In fact, its latest bombshell managed to wipe £2.8bn off the value of the UK’s six biggest banks, even though B&#38;B itself only started the day with a market cap of barely half a million.</p>
<p>So how did such a small bank cause such a big reaction?</p>
<h2>The reasons behind Bradford &#38; Bingley&#8217;s shocking share price slump</h2>
<p>Bradford &#38;&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Banks haven’t exactly been covering themselves in glory recently.  The sector has gone from one pratfall to another ever since Northern Rock first warned it was in trouble last summer. <span id="more-2759"></span></p>
<p>U-turns on rights issues, never-ending writedowns – there’s been plenty of badly handled mishaps to choose from.</p>
<p>But even by the low standards of the banking sector, Bradford &amp; Bingley (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=LON%3ABB" target="_blank">LON:BB</a>) has been particularly hapless. In fact, its latest bombshell managed to wipe £2.8bn off the value of the UK’s six biggest banks, even though B&amp;B itself only started the day with a market cap of barely half a million.</p>
<p>So how did such a small bank cause such a big reaction?</p>
<h2>The reasons behind Bradford &amp; Bingley&#8217;s shocking share price slump</h2>
<p>Bradford &amp; Bingley has had a dreadful few months. In the middle of April, rumours arose that the bank was on the verge of launching a rights issue. At the time, B&amp;B denied it strongly. However, within a few days, Royal Bank of Scotland had announced its plans for a rights issue, which was closely followed by HBoS.</p>
<p>With the floodgates open, B&amp;B apparently changed its mind in mid-May, saying it would be raising £300m from shareholders, with new shares placed at 82p a pop, way below the share price at the time.</p>
<p>At the time there was no suggestion of a profit warning, but with the housing market deteriorating, and management under a cloud because of the U-turn, investors were clearly worried. B&amp;B’s share price slumped as investors fretted over the state of the bank’s finances, until on Friday, B&amp;B was trading at just 88.5p a share.</p>
<p>Then, on Sunday, chief executive Steve Crawshaw, whose position was probably already untenable, resigned due to health problems. Then yesterday, the bank finally issued the much-expected profits warning.</p>
<p>And what a warning it was. The group plunged into an £8m loss in the four months to April, compared to a £108m profit for the same period in 2007. Profit margins have dived as funding costs grew, while bad debts have rocketed – more on that in a moment. The group also wrote down a further £89m in sub-prime related assets.</p>
<p>The good news – what little there was – was that US private equity group TPG has picked up a 23% stake in the bank for £179m. But even so, the rights issue had to be entirely revised. Under the original deal, if the share price had fallen below 82p, there would have been no incentive for anyone to buy into the stock and the underwriters (UBS and Citi, the investment banks who undersigned the deal) would likely have been left on the hook for the whole £300m.</p>
<p>Obviously, this wasn’t something either UBS or Citi would have appreciated. Reports in the papers suggest that they might even have found reason to pull out if necessary. So the deal has been changed. Shareholders will now be offered 19 shares for every 25 owned, at the price of 55p a share. Rather than raising £300m, B&amp;B aims to raise £258m.</p>
<h2>But why did the other bank shares fall?</h2>
<p>The chaos and the grim news on profits sent B&amp;B’s shares diving 24% to 67p, and it’s certainly a messy situation. But why did other banks take such fright? For example, HBoS sank 10%, while Alliance &amp; Leicester fell 5.2%.</p>
<p>Well, the main worries for other banks were in B&amp;B’s trading update. The group – which is Britain’s biggest buy-to-let mortgage lender – saw bad debts on its buy-to-let mortgages jump by a staggering 50% between the start of the year and the end of April. More than 3,000 of B&amp;B’s buy-to-let customers are now at least three months behind in their mortgage payments, from less than 2,000 at the start of 2008. Buy-to-let accounts for nearly 60% of the bank’s mortgage book.</p>
<p>Things will only get worse, said the bank. “The tougher economic environment will continue to push arrears beyond the current level.” As Sandy Chen at Panmure Gordon put it: “This is not the bottom. The UK housing market &#8211; not just buy-to-let &#8211; is turning south.”</p>
<p>And although the bank has been raising its mortgage costs, it’s not seeing the benefit feed through to its profits, because it can’t write enough of the new mortgages. As Derek Chambers of Standard &amp; Poor’s tells <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&amp;grid=&amp;xml=/money/2008/06/03/cnukbanks103.xml" target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>: “I think the hope had been at Bradford &amp; Bingley, probably at HBoS as well, that as they re-priced new mortgages they’d be able to pass on these costs.” But in fact, they are “stuck with more mortgages at low rates which are probably low margin or even negative margin, and they’re not able to free up capital to lend at the new higher rates.”</p>
<p>The trouble is, this is just the beginning of the housing market upheaval. The Bank of England reported yesterday that in April mortgage approvals hit their lowest level since the Bank started recording the data in 1993. Capital Economics reckons the data suggest we could be looking at “house price falls that are well into double digits by the end of the year”.</p>
<p>So all of the banks can expect their bad debts to rise from here on in, for quite some time. Any shareholders in B&amp;B, RBS, or HBoS pondering whether to buy into their rights issues needs to forget their current shareholding and ask themselves: “Given the choice of all the stocks in the stock market, would I put my money in a bank right now?”</p>
<p>And for anyone with anything less than the strongest risk appetite, then in the current economic climate, the answer has to be no.</p>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.moneyweek.com/file/48132/why-the-buy-to-let-carnage-is-just-beginning.html">  Why the Buy-to-Let Carnage is Just Beginning</a></p>
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		<title>Bradford and Bingley&#8217;s White Swan Event</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/bradford-and-bingleys-white-swan-event/2739</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Jun 2008 20:23:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Theo Casey</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alliance & Leicester]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[B&B]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Banking Sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barclays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bradford & Bingley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HBoS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nassim Taleb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rbs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas Pacific Group]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TPG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uk Stock Market]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>When is a Black Swan not a Black Swan? When the &#8220;perfect storm of highly improbable events&#8221; happens all the time.</p>
<p>Nicholas Nassim Taleb coined the term Black Swan to explain how massive unforeseen events have the greatest impact on markets. But only the most naïve and optimistic of investors was not expecting further fallout from the abominable banking sector.</p>
<p>Bradford &#38; Bingley (B&#38;B), like Northern Rock, RBS, Alliance &#38; Leicester, Barclays and HBOS before it, is in the spotlight and in a lot of trouble.</p>
<p>The company has launched a £258m rights issue at an offer price of 55p a share. They are set to issue a profit warning. Steven Crawshaw has stepped down as CEO. And they have agreed to sell&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When is a Black Swan not a Black Swan? When the &#8220;perfect storm of highly improbable events&#8221; happens all the time.<span id="more-2739"></span></p>
<p>Nicholas Nassim Taleb coined the term Black Swan to explain how massive unforeseen events have the greatest impact on markets. But only the most naïve and optimistic of investors was not expecting further fallout from the abominable banking sector.</p>
<p>Bradford &amp; Bingley (B&amp;B), like Northern Rock, RBS, Alliance &amp; Leicester, Barclays and HBOS before it, is in the spotlight and in a lot of trouble.</p>
<p>The company has launched a £258m rights issue at an offer price of 55p a share. They are set to issue a profit warning. Steven Crawshaw has stepped down as CEO. And they have agreed to sell 23% of their shares to Texas Pacific Group (TPG) Capital, a US private equity firm for £179 million.</p>
<p>This &#8220;perfect storm&#8221; hit the firm so hard that the FSA were forced to come in and suspend trading in the shares.</p>
<p>The downturn in the buy-to-let housing market means the UK’s eighth largest bank, from £3 billion in 2006, now is worth a mere £404m — less than Dignity funeral care. Which is shocking, viewed in isolation.</p>
<p>But, I’m pretty blasé about all of these rights issues and share plunges. Anything happening in the banking sector is a write-off (pun intended). Regular readers know that I’ve no interest in bottom-fishing for ‘bargain’ banks.</p>
<p>Despite my antipathy, I have been constantly advised to pile into banking shares. In the past 3 months I’ve been told:</p>
<p>To buy Barclays at 510p; the shares are now 363p;<br />
To buy RBS at 330p; now 222p;<br />
And to buy HBOS at 497p; now 368p.</p>
<p>All three tips were made, among other things, on the basis of big dividend yields, which seem to cover a multitude of sins.</p>
<p>Except they don’t. All three tips have incurred a greater capital loss than their total annual dividend payout would compensate for. And, none of these three firms is paying a dividend in cash. They’re paying them in shares instead.</p>
<p>This only serves to hurt the per share profitability, which lowers the already low share price&#8230; not what the dividend hunters signed up for.</p>
<h2>The world’s worst stock tipper</h2>
<p>I will no doubt receive another tip for Bradford &amp; Bingley. Why do the tippers persevere with banks?</p>
<p>Because the culprit ultimately responsible for all of these tips is still at large, pushing bank stocks like never before.</p>
<p>Let me now reveal to you who that culprit is. This is today’s the print-out from my Bloomberg terminal, objectively ranking stocks by their value credentials:</p>
<ol>
<li>Bradford &amp; Bingley, Score: 99:89</li>
<li>Alliance &amp; Leicester, Score: 83.96</li>
<li>HBOS, Score: 80:86</li>
<li>Barclays, Score: 78.68</li>
<li>RBS, Score: 76.42</li>
</ol>
<p>Blame the machines.</p>
<p>Across the entire UK stock market, banks are the five best value investments around today. And it’s not just Bloomberg&#8230; running any value ‘stock screen’ from Reuters, to Digital Look, to Zacks, to ADVFN produces the same result. This is what every investor and fund manager has been seeing on their screens since late-October.</p>
<p>In objective terms, these are the shares to buy. But anyone who’s been following this advice over the last 12 months has lost, and lost big.</p>
<p>There are two ways to look at investments, bottom-up and top-down.</p>
<p>Bottom-up investing uses stock-screens — systems that zero-in on company fundamentals. Think of it as tunnel-vision investing. In a bull-run, it is a great way to buy stocks. I used to build stock screens for a critically-acclaimed investment service, so I can personally testify to how effective they can be.</p>
<p>Top-down investing is quite different. This method is far more big picture. The first question is not ‘What company should I look at?’ It’s ‘What assets should I look at?’</p>
<p>Top-down investors are not only looking at numbers, but at sentiment and market opportunities outside of a machine’s scope.</p>
<p>While neither method is perfect, in a market downturn it is essential to think big.</p>
<p>Bottom-up investing can lag reality — in the 2000 bear market, stock screeners were picking out the companies that had fallen hard and were more value trap than value opportunity. The same thing is happening here. A system is not a substitute for common sense.</p>
<p>If the market falls by 20%, you have to sit up, take notice and, depending on the portfolio, take action.</p>
<p>The fallout was an opportunity to re-evaluate and find safe-havens for your money. Those who did this have profited in the last six months. Those who had well diversified portfolios in a variety of sectors have probably broken even.</p>
<p>Those who held the ‘good value’ banks, house-builders and retail stocks must now take drastic action to pull things back.</p>
<p>Theo Casey</p>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.fspinvest.co.uk/free-e-letters/fleet-street-research/articles/bradford-bingley-white-swan-event-00020.html">Bradford And Bingley&#8217;s White Swan Event</a></p>
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		<title>What If You Could Make EVERY Day Tax Freedom Day?</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/what-if-you-could-make-every-day-tax-freedom-day/2725</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/what-if-you-could-make-every-day-tax-freedom-day/2725#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Jun 2008 17:35:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ben Traynor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[B&B]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bond Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bradford And Bingley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ECB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FSA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mortgage Lender]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[spread betting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas Pacific Group]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Freedom! It’s taken us almost half the year, but we’re finally free! Free from the shackles of state oppression! No, I haven’t turned into a student communist. </p>
<p>If you’re wondering what I’m talking about, today is Tax Freedom Day — the day when the average worker in Britain has earned enough to pay their tax bill.Apparently it’s fallen one day earlier than in 2007. However, it’s a full <u>seven days later</u> than it was when New Labour first came to power. We now spend, on average, one week more than we did simply working for the Government.</p>
<p>That’s why I admire Robin Tracey. Because for Robin, EVERY day is Tax Freedom Day!</p>
<p>I’ll explain what I mean by that below. First, though, let’s&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Freedom! It’s taken us almost half the year, but we’re finally free! Free from the shackles of state oppression! No, I haven’t turned into a student communist. <span id="more-2725"></span></p>
<p>If you’re wondering what I’m talking about, today is Tax Freedom Day — the day when the average worker in Britain has earned enough to pay their tax bill.Apparently it’s fallen one day earlier than in 2007. However, it’s a full <u>seven days later</u> than it was when New Labour first came to power. We now spend, on average, one week more than we did simply working for the Government.</p>
<p>That’s why I admire Robin Tracey. Because for Robin, EVERY day is Tax Freedom Day!</p>
<p>I’ll explain what I mean by that below. First, though, let’s dive into today’s Big News&#8230;</p>
<h2>Bradford and Bingley shares suspended</h2>
<p>Bradford and Bingley (B&amp;B) had its shares suspended by the FSA this morning, following a 30% fall. The mortgage lender, which is heavily exposed to the Buy-To-Let market, is expected to miss forecast profits by £100 million. Chief executive Steven Crawshaw has stepped down. B&amp;B is expected to do a rights issue.</p>
<p>But amidst all the hullabaloo, Texas Pacific Group is buying what, to our eyes, looks like an eye-wateringly expensive 20% stake.</p>
<p>Do they know something the rest of us don’t? <a href="http://www.fspinvest.co.uk/free-e-letters/fleet-street-research/articles/bradford-bingley-white-swan-event-00020.html">Theo Casey takes a closer look, and also makes the case for looking beyond simple value investing&#8230;</a></p>
<h2>Has the tide turned for interest rates?</h2>
<p>&#8220;Nobody can convince me that we’re able to boost economic growth with a lax monetary policy.&#8221;</p>
<p>The words of Klaus Liebscher there, one of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy gurus.</p>
<p>Hear hear!</p>
<p>Liebscher went on to say that eurozone inflation is &#8220;very high&#8221; and that the ECB’s price stability mandate is &#8220;more than urgent&#8221; (what &#8220;more than urgent&#8221; means I’m not sure — perhaps this is a mistranslation&#8230;)</p>
<p>The bond market has the scent of a rate rise in its nostrils. Not that long ago, the market was pricing in a rate cut by the end of the year. Now the opposite position holds sway. Bond fans expect rates will rise.</p>
<p>Does this mean policy makers are finally taking inflation seriously? Well, the ECB has been hawkish for some time now. But what about closer to home? What’s happening on Threadneedle Street? Let’s take a look&#8230;</p>
<p>My oh my! We have a bit of a tussle on our hands, folks! A bone of contention has arisen between the Bank of England and the Treasury. Mervyn King, the Bank’s Governor, wants to promote Professor Charles Bean to the post of Deputy Governor when Rachel Lomax steps down.</p>
<p>But the Treasury is unhappy with the proposal. The other Deputy Governor is Sir John Gieve, whom the Treasury has criticised for not being ‘City-savvy’ enough.It fears promoting an academic to be the other Deputy will unbalance the Monetary Policy Committee. Cynics have suggested that the Treasury wants a City-friendly face simply because that’s more likely to lead to a policy the Government finds agreeable.</p>
<p>Though no-one’s said so (yet), I suspect they’re also uncomfortable with the idea of someone called Mr Bean wielding so much power over economic affairs&#8230;</p>
<p>Tension between a central bank and a government is a good thing. We neither want nor need monetary policy makers who kow-tow to politicians. King seems so far to be putting up a fight — perhaps he’s stung that I said he’s not as hard as ECB boss Jean-Claude Trichet&#8230;</p>
<p>It’s too early to say whether we’re now on a hawkish path. There’s a strong case to be made that rates should indeed go up — but whether that case has been heeded is another matter.</p>
<h2>China on the cheap</h2>
<p>Manraaj Singh had a quiet one last week. He was here, but spent most of his time holed up in his emerging markets den.</p>
<p>Today, we’re beginning to see the fruits of Manraaj’s labour. Two stocks which he believes typify why right now is a great time to be getting into China.</p>
<p>These aren’t formal recommendations, just interesting case-studies. But they make very interesting reading.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.fspinvest.co.uk/investment-services/profit-hunter/articles/chinese-share-lifetime-opportunity-00047.html">Find out why one of these stocks looks even better value than one of Warren Buffett’s new favourites!</a></p>
<h2>Make every day Tax Freedom Day</h2>
<p>OK, now I’ll satisfy your curiosity. Robin Tracey has a hobby which makes him hundreds of thousands of pounds a year. And he doesn’t pay a penny of tax on that money.</p>
<p>How? Because Robin makes his money from spread betting. And spread betting is tax free!</p>
<p>Spread betting is, of course, also risky. But Robin takes it all in his stride — because he’s been using his strategy for over a decade now, and knows that it works.</p>
<p>Recently he’s begun sharing his strategy with others, and the results have been phenomenal. One member of the public who’s copied Robin’s moves calls it a &#8220;near guaranteed income strategy&#8221;.</p>
<p>So if you’ve a bit of money to play with, and fancy putting it to work without the Government taking a bite out of the profits, why not check out Robin’s strategy?</p>
<p><a href="http://www.fsponline-recommends.co.uk/ttt0803d?ETTTD609" target="_blank">Find out how, with only a few minutes a month, you could generate a tax-free second income from the comfort of your own home</a></p>
<p>Until tomorrow</p>
<p>Ben Traynor</p>
<p>Source:<a href="http://www.fspinvest.co.uk/free-e-letters/fleet-street-daily/articles/tax-freedom-day-00048.html">  What If You Could Make EVERY Day Tax Freedom Day?</a></p>
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