Bill Bonner, venerable voice of reason (with a touch of doom), at The Daily Recokoning, looks long term at gold, the markets, and the end of the depression.

Yesterday might turn out to be an important day. The market should have bounced. It didn’t. Instead, it fell 29 points. It’s September, too…a dangerous month. And this rally has already run longer than the rally following the ’29 crash.

Chinese stocks plummet, worldly markets follow… what’s behind today’s sell-off… Dan Denning on taking profits in the twilight of the U.S. stock rebound… India reports better-than-expected GDP growth… why our Mumbai partners are still hesitant… Another compelling argument against U.S. banks… Dan Amoss serves the cold, hard data… Plus, signs of the times: American’s vote to throw the bums out while the free market backlash hits Hollywood…

Is this the beginning of a new bull market or just a last-gasp bear market rally? We just don’t know. We’ve got a hunch is all. According to value investing guru David Dremen, it doesn’t matter much, either.

What can we tell you about the US stock market that you don’t already know deep in your belly? This is a stimulus rally, pure and simple. It’s one big bet that the government’s funny money will lift up stocks out of mire of the recession… and send them to the moon!

Yesterday, the euphoria on Wall Street broke for a while as investors paused for thought to digest crappy July retail figures. Even with the feds funneling borrowed cash into the economy and high-profile government boondoggles such as the “cash for clunkers” program working, Americans are still doing the sensible thing and cutting back on spending. July retail sales dipped 0.1%, and the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all took lumps.

What the heck is going on? The Dow has just had its best weekly performance since March 2000. CNBC is full of whopping and high-fiving. The Obama administration is breathing an audible sigh of relief. And mom and pop investors all across the US are no doubt considering putting more of their savings back into the market.

Equities “are now barely through an 18-year secular bear market,” says our favorite underground analyst David Rosenberg. As illustrated by the nearby chart, US stocks have a historical tendency to move in 18-year cycles.

For the week ending 10 July 2009, it seems to have been almost all down hill since I last posted my commentary two weeks ago.  Gold and silver bullion as well as stocks have broken on the down side but there is still some life left.  Let’s get at today’s assessment.

In November of 1997, my partner and co-editor of  The Casey Report, Doug Casey, wrote an article titled “Foundations of Crisis,” which leaned heavily on the research of Neil Howe and the late William Strauss.  Howe and Strauss have written many books on how generations determine the course of history and how they will shape America’s future.