Unlike some stockpickers and newsletter analysts, who proudly trumpet all their winners, while shuffling the losers under the rug, I have no problem admitting when my calls go against me.

And to the delight of all the naysayers, this happened just a couple of days ago when gold prices shot to a record high. That triggered my sell-stop and, rather than let my pride come before a fall and hang on, it’s time to move on.

Don’t get me wrong, though… I’m still convinced that the yellow metal could suffer a correction for three main reasons…

• So far, inflation hasn’t reared its ugly head. If it stays in hiding much longer, disillusioned investors will probably head for the exits.
• If the U.S. economy recovers quicker than expected, investors will be inclined to abandon the safe haven of gold and reinvest in equities.
• The technicals point to a drop. The last four times gold spiked near or above $1,000 per ounce, it quickly (and sometimes precipitously) corrected.

However, giving into these convictions – and doubling down on gold – would mean abandoning two core investing disciplines that I swear by – position sizing and trailing-stops…

Have You Considered Using Trailing Stops & Position Sizing?

I know… you’ve heard about them countless times before. But indulge me for a moment, as I explain an aspect of both trailing stops and position sizing that you’ve probably never considered…

• When I speak at investment conferences, I always like to ask people to share their biggest loser. Heads go down and nary a hand rises.
• Conversely, when I ask them to share their biggest winner, it’s like I just offered free candy to an auditorium full of kindergarteners. Everyone’s hand shoots up and there’s a chorus of anxious, “Oohs!”

Nobody likes to talk about losing investments. Instead, we want to thump our chest over the latest 1,000% gainer. The reason for that is obvious, so let’s focus on the fear about talking about our losers.

Many investors turn their biggest loser into a total loss. Instead of employing a trailing-stop and exiting a trade as the price tumbles, they make it a long-term investment to save face. Or worse, they invest more at lower prices. Most times, the stock goes belly up and they lose even more.

Even the professionals can’t claim immunity here.

• For instance, take Bill Miller, the famous manager of the Legg Mason Value Trust Fund (LMVFX). Although Miller beat the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive years, he refused to man up to his mistakes when the market took a nosedive in 2008. He kept averaging down in stocks like Countrywide, Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE), Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual (OTC:WAMUQ) and AIG.
• He revealed the true depth of his arrogance when he was asked how he knew when to stop buying a falling stock. “When we can no longer get a quote,” he replied. In other words, the only price at which he was unwilling to buy more was zero.

Here’s my point…

Avoid Losses With A Position Sizing & Trailing Stop Discipline

When I joined The Oxford Club, I immediately stopped worrying about my losses. That’s because we religiously adhere to a 25% trailing-stop discipline and a position size of no more than 4% in any one investment. Thus, losses are always contained.

The beauty of such a simple, disciplined approach is two-fold…

• The results add up, decidedly on the plus side. Case in point: The independent Hulbert Financial Digest has ranked The Oxford Club newsletter (The Communiqué) among the top five in the nation. That’s based on 10-year returns, too.
• A trailing-stop and position sizing policy allow me to keep making bold calls without regret. The bolder they are, the smaller my position size.

For instance, for my short gold call, I only invested 2%. For a hypothetical $100,000 portfolio, that means investing  $2,000 and losing $500, or less than 1% of the total portfolio value.

Bottom line: I don’t ever let an investment turn into an unacceptable loss. And I never put too many eggs in one basket. Sure I might lose 25% here or 25% there, but when I keep my position sizes small, in the grand scheme of things, it’s no big deal.

Such a strategy leaves me with plenty of capital to re-deploy and keep gunslinging. And while gold didn’t work out, some other contrarian bets are already making up for the loss and then some.

• Take Sotheby’s (NYSE: BID), for example. Back in June, I advised readers to buy shares when everyone else believed the market for investing in fine art was going into a long hibernation. The fundamentals faltered, but they didn’t collapse. As a result, Sotheby’s rallied 68% from my entry point.
• Then there’s my recommendation last Thursday to buy into the beleaguered retail sector with hhgregg (NYSE: HGG). It’s up 5.7% since then.

If I take profits on both now, my misstep by shorting gold doesn’t even matter.

The Critical Component to a Disciplined Investment Approach: Accountability

But of course, a disciplined investment approach is useless without the critical component of accountability… In terms of position sizing, there’s only one person who can keep you honest: Yourself.

But when it comes to implementing trailing-stops, multiple options exist…

• A So-So Option: Enter the stop levels with your broker. However, this is not ideal. Market makers can manipulate prices to trigger these stops.
• A Better Option: Use a service like TradeStops (www.tradestops.com). For a nominal annual fee, it will alert you via text message and/or e-mail when your stocks hit their trailing-stops.
• The Best Option: Excuse my bias, but the best value for your money is The Oxford Club. We constantly remind you about position sizing and more importantly, notify you immediately when we hit a stop-loss or trailing-stop. And our members keep each other honest.

In addition, membership also comes with a constant stream of high quality, profitable recommendations. And they make up for the occasional downer, like my short gold recommendation! To find out more, take a few minutes to read our report on how it all works.

Good investing,

Louis Basenese

Source: Two Tips to Avoid Letting a Bad Stock Sucker-Punch You

The Dow slipped a bit yesterday – only 39 points. Everyone is watching. They want to see how far this rally carries on. Many think it is more than a bear market bounce; they think it is for real.

The prevailing opinion is that quick action by the feds avoided a more serious meltdown. Ben Bernanke says he was working to prevent a “second great depression.”

And now that the crisis is past, the economy is slowly climbing out of its hole. The second quarter showed GDP falling at 1% per year in the US… rather than the 6.4% rate recorded earlier in the year. Housing sales have perked up. Oil is trading above $71 – a sign of renewed economic activity. And gold seems to be getting ready for another assault on the $1,000 mark – a sign of growing inflation pressures.

At least… that’s the way the world sees it.

Here at the Daily Reckoning, we look… we squint… we wipe the fog off our glasses and try to tear the scales off our eyes. What do we see? We see a financial world gone mad.

Or, perhaps we should say… a financial world that has still not recovered from the Bubble Madness of 2002-2007.

One bubble begat another. We have previously reported that the bubble era was over. Because the machinery that made it possible – the bubblelized financial industry – was broken. Well, we were only half right. The finance sector has exploded. Bear Stearns was sold for peanuts. Lehman Bros. went broke. Merrill was forced into a shotgun wedding with the Bank of America (NYSE:BAC); with Hank Paulson holding the firearm. JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) is still in business. So is Goldman (NYSE:GS).

But now we know that even Goldman might have gone under if Paulson – ex-Goldman man – had not engineered a stealth bailout. He brought the feds in to save AIG, and in the process he saved his old alma mater too… AIG’s biggest trading partner, Goldman Sachs.

And now Goldman is in the news almost every day. It reported spectacular trading results for the quarter, lifting the entire world stock market. What’s good for Goldman must be good for the whole world economy, investors reasoned.

Then it was reported that Goldman made its money in a variety of ways – none of which had anything to do with providing genuine service to the economy. Goldman made a fortune on the feds’ own money-raising, it came out. And then it came out … Goldman was making billions by trading at lightning speed — clipping investors for fractions of pennies each time a transaction passed through the markets.

The Italians think Goldman runs their country. They’ve got the top three posts in Rome… Premier Romano Prodi is an ex-Goldman guy. So is the headman at the Treasury. And the chief of the central bank too.

They think Goldman is like a cult… a semi-secret society of insiders with the power to rule the country – surreptitiously. Like the free masons… the Jesuits… or the Illuminati.

Goldman has its boys in important posts in the US too – but not at the same level as in Italy. Tim Geithner is not a Goldman graduate. Neither is Ben Bernanke. But both have plenty of in-put from ex-Goldman associates, colleagues and handlers.

We confess an interest – we have relatives working at Goldman. But we doubt that Goldman rules the world. Just look what they said and did over the last couple of years; they had no more idea of what was going on than anyone else. No, they don’t rule the world… but they do manage to persuade it in their direction from time to time…

During the bubble years, they urged consumers, bankers, and investors to borrow… to speculate… and to ruin themselves. Naturally, Goldman made out like… well… like a bandit.

And now Goldman guys urge the government to ruin itself too. Yes, dear reader, the bubble age is not quite over. Now, there’s a bubble in government debt… Here too Goldman makes money like a bandit. The more the feds borrow… the more debt there is to buy and sell. And the more the feds stimulate… the more acts of reckless speculation there are to finance.

And the more money Goldman makes… the more politicians the firm is able to buy. Of course, they welcome campaign contributions.

And of course, Wall Street is spending record amounts in lobbying. But the real appeal is the lure of being able to join Goldman itself… of being able to spend some time in Washington… pushing business Goldman’s way… and then cash in big by joining the firm and getting a piece of the action…

*** There are two big bubbles now. There is the familiar one in federal government debt. The other is the Peoples’ Republic of China.

Andy Xie says China is a ‘giant ponzi scheme’ fed by new investors hoping to get rich. Of course, the China story is an attractive one. China’s growth rate is spectacular. Even in a worldwide financial meltdown… and the biggest depression since the ‘30s… China is still growing at greater than 8% per year – or so the figures tell us. New cities are still being built… at a breathtaking pace.

Stocks on the Shanghai exchange are up 80% so far this year. China has the biggest pile of cash on the planet — $2 trillion worth. And it has more bright, well educated engineers, accountants and economists than anywhere else… In fact, it has so many economists trained at Western universities, it is almost sure to blow itself up…

Maybe this is the Chinese Century. Maybe it is not. Either way, it seems inevitable to us that the Chinese bubble economy is going to pop. Banks are lending 3 times as much as they lent last year. You can’t increase lending at that rate and still maintain credit quality – if there was any in the first place. A lot of buildings are going up that won’t find tenants. A lot of factories are expanding that won’t find customers. A lot of speculations are going on that investors will later regret. That’s just how a bubble works!

Mr. Xie says, for example, that the cost of property in China is about the same as in the US. But wait, the average income in China is only 1/7th what it is in the USA. How can the Chinese afford American prices? Well, they can’t. They’re all betting on the greater fool theory – that they can pay any price, because some greater fool will come along and pay more. Trouble with that is that the Greatest Fool of All finally shows up… and then the whole structure collapses.

*** Barron’s says that “The Greenback is Broken.” True, the dollar has been losing ground as the stock market gains it. Yesterday, it took $1.44 to buy a euro.

“I was amazed at how expensive everything is in Paris,” said son Will. “You go into a shop to buy a few groceries… You expect to pay about $12. Instead, the bill comes to $40. Or, you stop to have a cup of coffee and a croissant. It costs you $10. I don’t know how you can afford to live in Paris…

Will lives in Buenos Aires… with frequent visits to in-laws in Florida…

“You know, it used to be so much cheaper to live in Buenos Aires than just about anywhere. But now, I think the prices are about the same as in Florida. Everything seems so cheap in Florida. And you can make some very good deals on property…

“Remember that house that I bought in 2006. You warned me not to do it. But right after I bought it people were coming to my door asking if they could buy it. One guy offered to write a check for $600,000. Then another guy offered $675,000. I began to think I really had something hot.

“Of course, then the market crashed. Now, I’m thinking of selling it for $300,000 – if I could find a buyer.

“But that’s in South Florida… only about an hour up the coast from Miami. There are places in the US where things are really, really cheap. In Iowa, maybe… Arkansas… Michigan. You can get a nice house for less than you’d pay for a garage in Paris. From that standpoint… the US seems like the place to be. You can live so cheaply. And fairly well… but quality of life is another thing… ”

The dollar is low… America is cheap. Barron’s is probably wrong about the buck. It’s not broken – not yet. Our guess is that it will rise when stocks crash this fall.

*** We’ve thought a lot about quality of life. It is not a constant, fixed thing we conclude…

There are only three main decisions you make in life – what you do; who you do it with; and where you do it. Typically, these decisions are made without much real thinking – which is probably the best way. They are not things that lend themselves to thought… but to feeling. Pity the more man who marries a woman after a prolonged and logical thought process. The poor sap is doomed. His head may be in the game, but his heart will drop the ball. The next thing you know, he will be in divorce court or therapy.

Likewise, the decision about where you live is not one that is readily subject to logical analysis. You like a place because you like it… And you may like it for a variety of reasons that defy analysis. There’s no accounting for tastes, as they say.

Living in rural Iowa probably wouldn’t suit us. We don’t have the stomach for it. We couldn’t draw enough nourishment out of such lean meat. We need more stimulation.

We like Paris for the street scenes. Everywhere we look, we see something we like to look at – people, buildings, shop windows, streets, bridges, river boats… Same thing out here at our summer place. We work in an octagonal office that sits in the park. No matter what window we look out of we see something that pleases us. A stone barn with a red barrel tile roof. Those big limousine cattle grazing in the field. And there’s the house itself… a conglomeration of a fortified farm house from the middle ages with a Renaissance-style faux-chateau cobbled onto it in the 19th century. And there is our grandson… 16 months old… playing in the gravel…

… wait… what’s he doing? Uh oh… he’s eating the gravel…

Gotta run…

Source: Goldman…Goldman…Goldman…

Banks got us into this mess, so it’s banks that will have to get us out.

From the President on down, nobody is disputing such a self-evident premise.

And that includes Wall Street. Here’s a typical statement – from RDQ Economics LLC in NY, “They [the Obama administration] should be focused on stabilization” of financial firms “and stimulus — and that should not only be ‘Job 1,’ that should be the only job right now.”

Of course, the financial crisis has killed Wall Street. So the statement might seem a little self-serving, except for the fact – once again – that everybody agrees with it. I don’t buy it.

Maybe banks were the problem a lifetime ago – when Bear Stearns was taken over and Lehman went under.  When nobody knew which were the good banks and which were the bad banks and interest rates shot up as a result.

But it just takes one stupid question to realize we’re so past that now…

Who will the banks lend to?

To you and me? Wait a minute. We’re saving more. From a negative savings rate, we’re now saving about five percent of what we earn.

It’s about time. We couldn’t go on forever spending more than we make. It was bankrupting us.

Do you really want to buy a new car? Richard Wagoner, CEO of GM, wants you to. So does Ben Bernanke. And, let me go out on a limb and submit that President Obama also wants you to.

But what’s good for the economy isn’t necessarily good for you and me.

But surely companies need more loans from banks? If companies weren’t running so low on cash, why are so many of them cutting their dividends (37 so far this year)?

Aren’t the auto companies strapped for cash? Aren’t many banks scraping the bottom of the cash barrel? Couldn’t they use loans from other banks?

Yes, yes, and yes, BUT…

Fewer sales mean a smaller cash flow. When you’re earning less cash, the last thing you want to do is get a loan and go deeper into debt. Ask any responsible CEO: Higher interest payments and lower earnings aren’t a good combination.

Then there are the irresponsible CEOs, who have made a ton of bad decisions and are now forced to take out loans. Just ask Vikram Pandit of Citigroup (NYSE:C) and Bob Nardelli of Chrysler how it feels to put their companies into deeper debt?

No self-respecting bank would give these companies a loan. They’re getting them from the government.

Responsible companies – especially those in cyclical industries – are paring down debt right now, not increasing it.

In other words, we’re way past the point where banks are holding back the economy. In fact, there are very good reasons why the government shouldn’t spend hundreds of billions of dollars to a trillion dollars more to save banks…

• Throwing good money after bad. The so-called stress test isn’t nearly tough enough. Many of the banks getting government money won’t survive.
• The adrenaline shot is diluted. When banks were leveraged 30 and 40 to one, these banks might have been able to kick start a lagging economy. Not anymore.
• Inflated pay scale. A reality check is long overdue. Without the lucrative derivative market and with lower leverage, banks can’t afford to pay their 20-something employees millions of dollars anymore.
• Where’s the accountability? On a scale of 1 to 10, remorse gets 0 and a sense of entitlement gets 11. Dozens of banks were engaged in reckless behavior. They bullied Freddie and Fannie. They gave out billions of dumb loans. They infected other banks all over the world. Has any banker said, “I’m sorry?” Not that I know of.

We shouldn’t be asking our banks to go back to the bad ol’ days of dumb lending and dumber borrowing. It’s not fair to lenders or borrowers.

But even if banks wanted to return to their loosy-goosy lending ways (which they don’t), they wouldn’t find enough pent-up demand for credit to lift the economy out of its current doldrums.

Banks are a problem. But they aren’t the answer. Their festering issues are hurting the market because Wall Street thinks that banks are more important than they are.

It’s the ultimate lose-lose situation…

Save the banks and the economy still drops like a rock.

Don’t save the banks and the markets drop like a rock.

I’m bearish. And you should be too. There’s no easy way out of this dilemma.

Source: Saving Banks Accomplishes Nothing

The failure here is two-fold: One, the editors’ choices of who’s to blame, and two, the reader poll ranking those choices.

Let’s start with who’s on the little list — or more to the point, who’s not.  Time did an OK job of unearthing lesser-known names who definitely bear some culpability in the disaster — such as AIG’s Joe Cassano, who did much to unleash the nightmare of credit-default swaps.

But how can anyone take this list seriously when it doesn’t include Ben Bernanke?  Yes, Greenspan (who did make the list) laid the foundation, but Bernanke built on it with abandon.  Perhaps it’s because the intelligentsia regards him a genuine scholar on monetary matters — you know, historian of the Great Depression and all that.  A far more respectable background than Greenspan, who hung out with Randians and extolled the virtues of the gold standard.

Where’s Tim Geithner, the guy whose fingerprints were on every boneheaded decision of 2008, from Bear Stearns to Lehman and beyond?

And where’s Robert Rubin?  What, is there some numerical limit of Goldman Sachs guys the editors arbitrarily applied to the list?  Hank Paulson’s on there, so Rubin can’t be?  Seems like Time lays a lot Rubin’s faux-deregulatory handiwork on the shoulders of Bill Clinton, which I daresay might be a bit unfair.  Clinton revealed his naievete on such matters when he remarked early in his first term, “You mean to tell me that the success of the economic program and my re-election hinges on the Federal Reserve and a bunch of f*$(#@g bond traders?”

Oh, and then there’s Time’s inclusion of “The American Consumer.”  Oh, that was clever, alright.  I bet the editors were congratulating themselves over the brilliance of that one — “Gee, this is almost as good as choosing ‘You’ as Person of the Year a while back!”  But this too is too harsh — consumers were merely taking their cues from the politicians and central bankers driving the ship.

Even worse than Time’s 25 choices are the rankings furnished by its readers.  I guess letting the readers vote is Time’s idea of Web 2.0.  But the sheer folly of this is revealed when the number-one choice as ranked by the people who drove by the website, the premier villain of the financial calamity that’s befallen us is… drum roll, please… Phil Gramm.

Phil Gramm?!?  Yes, his name was the first on the faux-deregulation legislation that repealed Glass-Steagall in 1999, and he’s worthy of inclusion on the list.  But I suspect the reason he ranks so high is one that Time doesn’t even mention in its writeup: His Kudlowesque comment last year, while on UBS’s payroll and consulting the McCain campaign, that the recession is a mere figment of the collective imagination.  Must’ve stuck in the craw of a lot of political junkies.

And if we’re going to beat up on former members of Congress, shouldn’t we beat up on a couple of others who are still around, like Barney Frank or Chris Dodd?

But whatever.  Time’s payroll and page count shrinks as the economy and the Internet take their toll.  Let us celebrate.

Source: I Have a Little List

MSNBC reported last night that Obama is already getting advice from Ben Bernanke.  That ought to make you feel warm and fuzzy right there.

But wait, there’s more!  As of this writing it appears Lawrence Summers is the leading candidate for Treasury Secretary.  As in, the guy who was Clinton’s last Treasury Secretary.  So much for the promise of “no retreads” in an Obama administration.

I mean, Larry Summers?!  That’s really in-your-face, on any number of levels.  PC-liberal types are still up in arms over his remarks about the size of women’s brains when he was running Harvard, and the general consensus in Cambridge was that he ran Harvard with all the people skills of Attila the Hun.

More to the point is this: Summers was among those present at the creation of the biggest credit bubble of all time — when the Glass-Stegall Act was repealed in 1999.  As I’ve written before, tearing down the wall of separation between commercial banking and investment banking is a good idea in principle.  But written between the lines of the replacement legislation was a guarantee of government bailout if big leveraged bets went awry — one reason that the ultimate deregulator, Ron Paul, voted against it.

But hey, it’ll make for a nigh-seamless transition at Treasury — Paulson to Summers to national bankruptcy.*

And if it’s not Summers, the other candidates whose names have been floated will substitute just fine.  Tim Geithner?  The New York Fed chief was the architect of the (NYSE:JPM) JPMorgan-Bear Stearns deal, and has quietly kept his hand in every bailout and associated scheme since then.  New Jersey Sen. Jon Corzine?  Ex-Goldman Sachs.  Nuff said.

Presidents might change.  Taxes go down, taxes go up.  But the criminal finance class always makes sure to provide for itself first.

*Speaking of national bankruptcy, what sort of omen is it that the book version of I.O.U.S.A. was Amazon’s top seller Tuesday night as Obama snagged his victory?

Source: The Fix Is in

More from Andrew Snyder at Today’s Financial News:

In one of the latest what-were-you-thinking moves, the Federal Reserve just announced it has hired Michael Alix as a bank regulation advisor.

Who the heck is Michael Alix, you ask? He is the former chief risk officer at Bear Stearns, a company that thought risk-management was an oxymoron. Essentially, he is the guy that allowed Bear Stearns to get so over-leveraged, it collapsed under its own weight.

Now, he is an advisor for the Federal Reserve. At the very least, he can tell us what not to do.

Frankly, I believe the Fed’s hiring of one of the executives at the center of today’s market fiasco proves that the “good-old boy” system remains alive and well in Washington. It is a disgrace.

Source: The Fed hired who?

The most interesting news item recently was found on the cover of the Financial Times newspaper, where we learn that a guy named Lahde “made tens of millions of dollars from betting against the financial and property sectors during [the] past two years”, and he now wanted to thank “the low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA” who made it all possible for him to find enough suckers.

He noted that “These people who were often truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG (NYSE:AIG), Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the aristocracy,” he says, “only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.”

This goes along with an article in the St. Petersburg Times about Tom James, chairman and chief executive of Raymond, James Financial, who had “some tough words for the wizards of Washington, D.C. who oversaw the recent $700-billion bailout package”.

He reports that “The Brave And Wonderful Mogambo (BAWM) was right all along! Those government weenies are the biggest freaking morons you ever saw, and we as a country should be ashamed of ourselves for having elected such corrupt, half-witted, utter failures and congenital idiots!”

As you have probably guessed by now, he did not say those exact words, but he implied every syllable when he said, “Legislators were almost embarrassingly ignorant of how the financial system works”, which I figure explains how they don’t understand the linkage between their own Bad, Bad Performance (BBP) as legislators and the subsequent Bad, Bad Performance (BBP) of the economy, and he says that only 3 of 16 legislators that he talked to actually understood what was going on in the “credit crisis.” Less than 20%! Hahaha! We’re doomed!

Well, maybe these Congressional losers will understand the unfolding economic slowdown, as evidenced by the Baltic Dry Index, which is an index of the cost to transport stuff by cargo ship, and which has fallen precipitously, which seems very important to me, and to Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) Riccardo, too, who is also alarmed by this like – as I previously said – me.

It’s actually beyond scary, in a terrifying kind of “ain’t nobody buying nothing in a consumer economy” kind of way, which means that without the consumer buying stuff as his or her contribution to the famous statistic of “the consumer is 70% of the economy”, we are, in case you ain’t heard, freaking doomed if the consumer ain’t buying!

Well, maybe not all buying is drying up, as Ted Butler, silver market analyst, reports that in the last 10 months, “some 150 million ounces of silver can easily be documented to have been bought by investors. Undocumented purchases would add tens of millions more ounces.”

In fact, when you add it all up, “Investment demand for silver this year is running at a full 25% of world mine production and over 20% of total production (including recycling). This is a remarkable historical turnabout.”

Thus, it is easy to see why Mr. Butler is “bullish beyond belief for silver”, since this kind of demand means that “In silver, the documented 150 million ounces bought in the first ten months of this year is equal to 15% of all the silver bullion equivalent thought to exist!” Wow!

More than one-seventh of all the silver bullion “thought to exist” in the whole world was suddenly bought up in less than a year, and yet the price of silver has been pounded down to less than 10 bucks an ounce? No wonder I am so bullish on silver!

He also notes that the gold/silver ratio is at more than 80, which is “one of the biggest differences in history.”

And not only that, but since there are 4 to 5 billion ounces of gold in the world versus only 1 billion ounces of silver, that means that “the total dollar value of all the gold in the world is worth 300 to 400 times more than all the silver in the world (80 times 4 or 5)”.

In dollars and cents, the dollar value of all the gold in the world is about $4 trillion, while the value of all the silver in the world is but a laughably low $10 billion! Where do YOU think the most profit potential lies? Me, too! Hey! This investing stuff is easy! Whee!

Source: A Bull in a Silver Shop

So along comes Stein with a mea culpa for missing the recent stock market crash.  OK, so a lot of genuinely smart people didn’t think it was going to be as horrific as it turned out to be.  But Stein chalks it up to just one little misstep of the otherwise brilliant Paulson-Bernanke-Geithner team.  “I did not foresee the catastrophic mistake, as I view it, by Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. to allow Lehman Brothers to fail,” Stein writes. “That failure left a gaping hole in the financial services industry, and blew away confidence that the Feds knew what they were doing.”

Actually, Stein is sort of onto something here.  At the time Lehman blew up, Paulson & Co. had already engineered the demise of Bear Stearns and the full government takeover of Fannie and Freddie.  Nothing appears to have happened to alter my hypothesis at the time of Lehman’s demise about why it was allowed to happen.  But looked at from the Paulson interventionist standpoint, it was a blunder of the first order.  Lehman’s downfall pretty well doomed AIG (NYSE:AIG) and put a host of money-market funds in grave danger.

At this stage, it was obvious to all that Paulson & Co. were pretty much making it up as they went along.  Stein writes, “After Lehman, I felt sure that the government would realize its mistake and issue blanket solvency guarantees to banks. But that didn’t happen, the stock market fell apart, credit went icy cold and the wheels started to come off the economy. This also took me by surprise.”

This smacks of disingenuousness, an after-the-fact conceit that, “If I’d been in charge, I’ve have known which levers and pulleys to manipulate to make everything just so.”  So what does Ben think ought to be done now?  Well, it has nothing to do with the free market he allegedly reveres.  “The need for the government to take action seemed so clear — and still seems so clear that I cannot believe a day passes without its happening. But the days pass, nothing happens, and I am proved wrong again. And I lose some of my life savings and it hurts.”

Yes, the government is now going to own a piece of insurance companies, just as they’ve moved to own a piece of banks — but government is “doing nothing” in Stein’s view.  It’s enough to leave you speechless.

But no, Stein has one more whopper to lay on us before bringing this column to its merciful end.

And, closer to home, a talented makeup artist who works with me almost daily in my TV appearances asked what happened to people in a recession. (She is young.) I said that fear and insomnia happened to most people but that a few million would actually lose their jobs and millions more would lose income.

“What do they do?” she asked, looking worried.

“They find other work or live off their savings,” I said. “They certainly cut back on their spending.”

“What if they don’t have any savings?” she asked. “I don’t have any savings,” she said. “No one I know except you has any savings.” She looked extremely worried.

This is perhaps the main lesson of this whole experience. It is basic but still unlearned: human beings must have savings. This is not just a good idea. It’s the difference between life and death, terror and calm. So start saving right now, and don’t stop until you die.

Ben, where the hell were you all these years when Alan Greenspan was — by his own admission to Jon Stewart — discouraging people from saving by slashing interest rates, thus encouraging them to speculate wildly, first on tech stocks, then on real estate?

The only redeeming thing about Stein’s column is a postscript in which he says a windfall profits tax on oil companies is a dumb idea.  Yes, it is, Ben.  But you and Kudlow and Cavuto and the rest of you shrieking jackasses don’t help make the case when you’ve been so stunningly, breathtakingly wrong about everything else when Greenspan and Bernanke and Bush were running this country off a freaking cliff.  So do us all a favor:  Just shut up.  SHUT UP!  Go away for a while.  Your “free market” patina is going to make it damn near impossible for genuine free-marketeers to state their case for the next couple of years, at least.  We’re left to cry, not unlike pathetic hardened communists confronted with the demise of the Soviet bloc, “But what’s been happening isn’t really a free market!”

Oh well.  If you can’t change any minds, at least you can take a step to recover from whatever whacking the market has recently dealt you.

Source: Ben Stein’s mea culpa

This from Today’s Financial News:

All across America, huge companies are selling at deep discounts. One of those companies is General Electric (NYSE:GE). It is one of the most prominent, well-known and successful companies in the world, yet its shares are selling for prices just shy of half what traders were getting one year ago.

In fact, GE has not been this cheap in over a decade. The last two times shares of General Electric were this cheap, investors more than doubled their money in the following few years.

Imagine having the opportunity to purchase shares of the company for just $22 this time last year when shares were peaking at $42.

Investors would have pushed their own mothers out of the way for that kind of opportunity.

Let’s face it. General Electric has been in business for a long, long time. And it will remain in business for an even longer period of time. Because the company is such a diversified mega-conglomerate it has the power to withstand immense turmoil.

A Wall Street panic like the one we saw recently is nothing new to this Blue Chip. GE has endured huge price declines many times in its past. Each and every time it did, share price rebounded dramatically higher than where it started.

As I write, GE’s fundamentals are in ranges we have not seen in a very long time. With a reading of just 9.6, the company’s price-to-earnings ratio is insanely low. It should be twice that figure, at least. The downturn has created the ultimate value play.

That is why Warren Buffett recently wrote the company a check for $5 billion so he could get his hands on the profit potential. You do not become the nation’s richest person by paying too much for something. Follow his lead.

Shares of GE are priced at levels we should not see except during the most catastrophic economic events. We are nowhere close to that situation. Granted, the company’s earnings will suffer over the next few quarters. But the decline will not be anywhere close to justifying this huge share price decline.

General Electric is oversold. Warren Buffett knows it. I know it. Now you know it.

Buy shares of the company and wait for the rebound. In just a year or two, when shares are once again trading for $40 and more, you will be very, very glad you did.

Discover what it is like to be rich

Since we are following in the footsteps of Buffett, how about we take another piece of his sage advice…

Buffett is constantly discussing his investment philosophy: buy what you know and use. This theory is why Campbells Soup and McDonalds have remained relatively unscathed by the credit crunch.

To learn about the next undervalued superstar, all you have to do is open your wallet. I bet you have a few credit cards stashed in there.

All of the major credit card companies – names like Visa (NYSE:V), Mastercard (NYSE:MA), and American Express (NYSE:AXP) – have seen their valuations drastically reduced during the recent bear market. None of them are as undervalued as Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS) and its powerful Discover Card brand.

Selling for less than $11, down from over $32 less than two years ago, shares of the company are a downright steal.

Again, this company and its products are in a very strong position. No matter what happens in this economy, people will still use their credit cards. And even if every American cuts their cards to shreds, Discover still has a strong network in 184 other countries.

Like I mentioned above, all of the major credit card companies have been hit hard in recent weeks. And all of them have created fantastic buying opportunities. But only Discover adds a powerful technical investing layer to the mix.

Over the next few weeks and months, we are bought to hear the mainstream media discussing record-breaking delinquency rates. More people than ever will be late with credit card payments as the economic machine grinds to a halt.

For the nation as a whole, folks that cannot afford to pay their credit card bills is a terrible thing. But for credit card companies, like Discover, that are allowed to charge huge annual interest rates and levy fees for just about everything, late payers create a wealth of revenue streams.

Shares of the company are trading right at all-time lows. It means no investors have ever bought shares of this company at prices this cheap. It also means if anybody wants to sell, they would have to do it at a loss. It puts a solid floor under share price and is a phenomenon technical investors love.

Even if the economy were to take a strong downward slide, Discover’s firm price floor would help avoid any serious share-price decline. It will also create a catapulting function as the market and the economy rebound.

As long as you buy shares below $12, your position should create some fantastic profits.

The coal industry cannot die

While we are on the subject of investing in what we know and use, let’s discuss another product that we are both using right now, electricity.

Electricity is the commodity this world depends on every second of every day. And chances are the electricity your computer is using as you read this report was created by coal. It is a good bet because about 50% of this nation’s electricity is generated by burning coal.

If you have heard any of the presidential debates, coal is going to be a major energy focus over the next four or eight years. Both candidates are pushing for increased growth in the clean-coal industry.

That means coal is not going away anytime soon. But if an outsider were to look at the prices for the raw material or the share price of the companies mining and selling the indispensable fuel, they may be inclined to believe coal’s days are numbered.

They would be dead wrong.

Coal will play a vital role in the global economy for decades, if not centuries, to come. Thanks to new technologies, coal can be burnt in an ultra-efficient, super-clean process. It can even be used to make the fuels that power our cars, trucks, trains, and planes. Coal is the next “super fuel.”

One company poised to take advantage of any growth in the coal-producing industry is James River Coal Company (NASDAQ:JRCC). It is yet another company with shares trading for just a fraction of what they were a few months ago.

Right now, you can get your hands on shares for just less than $20.

In June, they would have cost you over $60. This time next year, they will likely cost you at least that much.

There are two important facts to understand about the coal industry.

First, there is a global coal shortage. Demand far outstrips supply no matter where in the world you go. China, India, Australia, and Russia are desperate to get their hands on more fuel. Fortunately, the United States has over a quarter of the world’s coal supply in our own backyards. Finally, we have the power in our hands.

The second thing you need to know is that once a coal-fired generating plant goes online, it cannot afford to shut down. It will need a continuous supply of coal for decades to come. It is just the opposite of nuclear-operated facilities. A nuke plant only needs fuel every twenty years or so. Coal plants are addicted to fuel.

Combine a nearly constant demand stream with a lack of supply and every economist will say you have a perfect recipe for profits. Throw in a stock price that has been unduly beaten down because of unfounded fears of an industry slowdown and you have an opportunity to score big time as share price rebounds.

James River Coal Company is trading well below dirt-cheap territory. Take advantage of Wall Street’s mistakes and buy shares under $22 while you still can.

An American classic

Finally, there is one more all-American company investors absolutely must know about. This one is truly a Blue Chip selling at penny-stock prices.

Take a look at a chart of Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) and you will see a history of ups and downs. The company is in the heart of a highly cyclical industry constantly expanding and contracting. But no downturn has ever been as big as this one.

A decade ago shares of Ford were selling for over $37. Today, you can get them for less than $3.

It is the price of a mere cup of coffee at Starbucks and is a price Ford shareholders have not seen since the Reagan administration.

Granted it may be a long time before the company sees shares trading for over $35, but it certainly will not be long until we see them at $10 or even $15.

The domestic auto industry has reached its bottom. It is impossible to argue any other way.

Just look at the deal General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Chrysler are working to create. Obviously, if it can get its hands on Chryslers strong Jeep and minivan lineup, plus billions of dollars in desperately needed liquidity, General Motors will be a major benefactor. But so will Ford.

The auto industry will consolidate. There will be one less major competitor. Prices will begin to rise and margins will increase substantially. This is a deal that could save Detroit and make a lot of smart investors rich along the way.

But there is even better news.

Just recently, Congress handed Detroit automakers its own version of a rescue package. It came in the form of $25 billion in loans. The deal gives the automakers an insurance policy that will ensure they make it through this latest cyclical downturn. After all, no politician will ever let Ford go belly up on their watch.

Experts agree by 2010, the nation’s car industry is going to embark on a serious upswing. The cars that Americans bought during the last boom cycle will be wearing out, Detroit will have a new, high-tech product lineup, and customers will once again be walking into showrooms with pockets full of cash.

You can wait for the company to start making big headlines and get shares at $10 or more. Or you can invest at penny-stock prices and hold onto the shares as Ford gets back on its feet.

In less than 24 months, we will be entering the fourth-quarter of 2010. This credit crunch and recession talk will be in the history books. Most importantly, your shares of Ford will be worth three or four times more than they are right now.

Investors have an exciting road ahead. We have made it through the worst of the market turmoil. The economy is going to slow but it is finally back to fundamental investing. No longer will we see wild swings wiping out entire sectors. Now the weak will be eliminated and the strong will flourish.

Invest in the strong companies while their prices are dirt cheap and watch your profits grow as Wall Street figures out how to fix this mess. In just a few years, the credit crisis will be behind us and some huge profits will be in your pockets.

Source: Blue chips at penny stock prices

The Dow rose 89 points yesterday. Oil rose to $118…and has almost reached $119 this morning. The reason given for oil’s rise is a storm in the Caribbean, named Gustav, which threatens to shut down oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

Gold rose $3.50 – to $831. We may have just had – and may still have – a great opportunity to buy into gold. The yellow metal seems to have bottomed out. Time will tell, of course…

“You never know what will happen or when, but things always happen the same way…”

We were trying to explain the mysteries of market cycles to a neighbor at last night’s dinner. We might just as well have been trying to describe the Holy Ghost or tell him precisely where to find a photon. Our interlocutor was a practical man – a developer who had begun a huge project, building hundreds of new apartments on France’s Mediterranean coast. He wanted practical answers.

“Is there enough demand for those new apartments?” we asked mischievously.

“Well, there used to be…until recently…”

Throughout much of the world the story is the same. Lenders are more reluctant to lend than they were a year ago. Buyers – who can’t get ready credit – are less able to buy. Demand, and prices go down.

From the LA TIMES comes a report that prices in the Golden State have fallen 40% since the bear market in housing began. A year ago, the typical house cost $587,000, says the Times report. Now, you can buy it for $350,000.

A blogger on the Times’ website said that he had found a house marked down 77% – and still no buyer. We looked at the photo of the house. No wonder it had found no buyer. It is a shack, not a real house. Unfortunately, many of the houses on sale in California are shacks. At least, now they’re selling for less money.

“We’re going to have to cut prices,” said our developer friend, “or just put the project on ice until this situation turns around.”

Then came the obvious question: “When do you think things will return to normal?”

Our answer slipped out as easily as a silk handkerchief: “Things ARE normal now,” we replied.

As we explained yesterday, the eagerness of lenders to lend and the value of their collateral tend to rise or fall together. When mortgage lenders compete to give out money so people can buy houses, you have to expect prices for housing to go up. Eventually, houses become so expensive that even though people can still afford to buy them, they can’t afford to pay for them. This is when the lenders begin to have second thoughts. And once the lenders get scared, prices fall. All perfectly normal.

So far, everything is working just as it should. Boom follows bust, which follows boom. Over and over again, the same mistakes are made – but by new people.

But people don’t like to admit they’ve made a mistake. So, when markets begin to turn against them, they imagine that the turn is just a fluke. They expect things to return to ‘normal’ quickly, not realizing that it is normal for them to make mistakes and lose their money.

When housing first began to go down, at first people didn’t believe it. They’d learned that “property always goes up,” or that “you can’t go wrong with real estate.” Naturally, they took the first signs of a downturn as a buying opportunity. Later, they realized that it was a selling opportunity – the last chance to get out before the roof collapsed.

Likewise, when banks, hedge funds and mortgage lenders began to send out alarums, the problems were thought to be temporary and modest. “Containable,” is how Hank Paulson described the first little cracks in the sub-prime debt market. But the cracks widened. And now, some of the biggest financial edifices in the country – Bear Stearns, Lehman Bros. (NYSE:LEH), Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) – have either already fallen down or are leaning dangerously.

One in four junk bonds is in distress, says CFO.com. And the credit crisis is far from over. It has continued for more than a year, but with the value of the collateral still dropping, there are probably hundreds of billions in losses that have not yet been discovered, acknowledged and written off.

But maybe the collateral will stop falling in price…? And maybe, then, lenders will be more willing to extend credit…? And maybe the good times will roll again…?

“US home sales show signs of recovery as price declines ease,” is a headline in yesterday’s International Herald Tribune. The gist of the good news is that house prices fell less in June than they did in May (though the 12 months through June showed the biggest drop in housing in US history) and in July, sales of new and used houses actually went up!

At least 3 or 4 times over the past year, stock markets have rallied on news that “it’s over.” Eventually, of course, it will be over…but probably not before people have stopped looking for the end.

*** When will housing stop falling in price? Remember, housing is a consumer item, not an investment. It needs to be affordable. That is, the average fellow has to be able to buy the average house – and pay for it. Otherwise, prices must come down. How much must housing come down now so that the average person can buy a house? We saw estimates of about 30%-40%. And generally, there’s a little over-shooting. Nationwide, prices are down about 18% from their peak. We’d expect about as much more.

*** But while things are happening in a perfectly normal way in the housing market, in the broader world economy we are in the realm of the extraordinary. Never before have so many people in so many places had so much money. The Chinese are earning billions. The Arabs too. And Russians…

“This story coming out of Ossetia is very revealing,” said a fellow diner last night. “The region is much more complex than I realized. These people have been at each others’ throats for centuries. You know, they have about 50 different languages – and none of them related to any of the others. It is only when there is a strong imperial power in place that they settle down and behave themselves. The Tsar pacified the region in the 19th century. Then, the different cultures lived side by side. There were Catholic churches next to Orthodox churches next to mosques. And people mostly got along. And then, Stalin took over. He tried to erase a lot of the ethnic divisions…making them all communists…and forcing them all to learn Russian. But the Russians – either from the time of the Tsars or the time of the Soviets always had trouble along the southern periphery of the empire. They could never very easily bring the Muslims under control. That’s what the Crimean war was all about…and then, in Afghanistan, the Muslims kicked them out.

“But what I think is most interesting about this story is the way Russia is asserting itself. I don’t know what was going through the Georgian president’s head. You don’t attack Russia with just 17 tanks. He must have thought he had support from the U.S. and Europe. But what could the U.S. or Europe do? We know that the Russians can cut off natural gas to Europe anytime they want. They have the energy; we don’t. If they cut off the gas, it will be a long, cold winter for us. And the United States? Putin knows that the U.S. is bogged down in Iraq. And he knows too that the U.S. doesn’t have any money. In geopolitics, the country with the energy and the money wins. And right now, that’s Russia.”

Yes, dear reader, Russia looks like a winner. And China. And India. And all the countries that seem to be on the way up. Who knows which will succeed…or when? But it looks to us as though these countries are catching up – first in economic terms…later in military terms – to the United States.

What does this mean for investors? It probably means that, over the long run, shares in growing, developing countries are a better bet than those in the United States. And it probably means that the dollar is a bad way to store wealth – since it is tied to an economy in (relative) decline.

It probably also means that limited resources – gold, copper, land, water – will become (relatively) more expensive, because there are more and more people who want them and have the purchasing power to buy them.

And this situation with Russia most definitely put a spotlight on how dependence on foreign oil can be a country over a barrel…and the race is still on in the United States to find a viable alternative to the black goo. Our intrepid correspondent, Energy & Scarcity’s Byron King tells us of an untapped energy source that lies underground just north of San Francisco.

“It is a ’slow volcano’,” explains Byron, “brewing under the Earth’s surface, unable to erupt, but spews heat. It actually pumps out 750 megawatts of electricity…enough to power 750,000 homes, or a city the size of San Francisco.”

A recent piece of California legislation states that by December 2010, at least 7.6 million Californians are slated to get all of their electricity from renewable sources like “slow volcano” power.

“And I’ve found a small company – a share costs less than a newspaper – that is the only ‘pure play’ on California’s government-forced explosion in renewable energy.”

You can take advantage of Byron’s ’slow volcano’ research, and all of the rest of his Energy & Scarcity Investor recommendations for 4 months. If you aren’t satisfied at the end of this time period, you will receive a full refund – no questions asked. Click here to learn more…but hurry – this offer is only good until midnight tonight!

Regards,

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning

P.S. Don’t forget – if you haven’t gotten out to see I.O.U.S.A. yet, there is still time. Check here to see if it’s playing at a theater near you!

Source: Same Old Mistakes, Different Day