A sharp drop in U.S. car production has waylaid the auto-parts industry and now skittish banks are holding credit back from companies looking for a life preserver. Alarmed by the precarious state of Detroit’s Big Three, many banks have stopped accepting receivables, or income that suppliers book in anticipation of future sales, as collateral.

A vast network of smaller suppliers, which rely heavily on receivables to get loans from smaller banks, is particularly at risk. But even larger parts makers with stronger financials are bracing for what could turn into an industry-wide meltdown.

Lear Corp., General Motors Co.’s (GM) second-largest supplier has already hired New York investment-banking firm Miller Buckfire & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) to amend credit agreements to avoid defaulting on loans, The Wall Street Journal reported.

“A couple of significant failures could bring the entire industry down,” said Daniel Ninivaggi, Lear’s executive vice president.

Visteon Corp. was one company identified by The Journal as being perilously close to liquidation. One source familiar with situation said Visteon is “about 65% to 70% of the way there.”

The company has instituted a four-day workweek for 2,000 salaried employees and plans to cut pay by as much as 10% for employees making more than $75,000 a year.

A large portion of the domestic car industry was idled in late December as companies extended holiday shutdowns, but with cash is running low, there is growing anxiety that the weakest suppliers will start to succumb to bankruptcy by February.

Industry leaders have stepped up their lobbying efforts in recent weeks, as a result, and Neil de Koker, president of the Original Equipment Suppliers Association, told the Financial Times that representatives are planning to make a formal request for access to the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), just as Ford Motor Co. (F), GM, and Chrysler LLC did last month.

“Suppliers need money, otherwise all the money put into GM and Chrysler will go for naught,” said de Koker.

Mainly, industry lobbyists want government guarantees on receivables so banks will again start accepting them as collateral.

Suppliers book $13 billion to $15 billion in Big Three receivables each month, according to the Original Equipment Suppliers Association and the Motor and Equipment Manufacturers Association.

The government would have to guarantee $10 billion to $12 billion, or 80%, of those receivables for banks to loosen credit terms, according to industry estimates.

Other measures could include direct cash infusions and a three or four-month moratorium to keep banks that received help from the TARP from pulling or altering terms on credit lines to auto-parts makers.

Source: On the Brink of Bankruptcy, U.S. Auto-Parts Companies Seek Bailout

The thinking goes that if consumers are dumping SUVs there must be an equal and opposite reaction that would create a stampede to green cars. Well, maybe one day consumes will make that stampede. However, the Times’ article shows consumers’ reaction as more of a trickle.

Electric cars will attract a lot of attention at the Detroit Motor Show this week. The luscious booth babes of the muscle cars exhibits are being replaced deer robots in fake forests.

As the Times reports, the major automakers are feeling pressured to pour billions into the rapid development of electric cars when they can least afford it. Apparently, this mad rush into electric cars is driven more by the competition than by actual near-term demand.

The Times writes: “Strong consumer demand has to be part of that equation, too. And it remains unclear whether consumers will be comfortable with the idea of buying an electric car, or whether these vehicles will priced to compete with comparable gas-powered models.”

While Detroit expects financial help from President-elect Obama to both auto makers and consumers, the only subsidized market that really seems to make investors money is the military.

Currently, Ford plans to make only 10,000 of the electric vehicles a year at first — very few by Detroit standards — to test the market cautiously, according to the Times.

Now take into consideration that Toyota, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Subaru, GM, Chrysler and host of upstarts are rushing into this market, and you see that the casualty rate will be pretty, darn high (with triage coming from U.S. taxpayers).

Chevrolet has been touting the forthcoming Volt at a price of $40,000. With 2 million people losing their jobs and last, and another 2 million expected to join the ranks of the unemployed in 2009, who has the money to spend on that when their 2003 Chevy Trailblazer is chugging along just fine?

No one has money to spend on any new car…gas prices are still down…and battery technology still remains in its infancy.

If you contemplating an investment in electric cars, we recommend that you hit the brakes now.

All told, the Big Three will idle about 59 factories over the next month as each of the three American carmakers struggle to wait on a rescue that the White House says is still under study. The announcement comes in the wake of a stubborn credit crisis and debate over the government bailout for the Big Three automakers.

The Chrysler announcement – because it came first – was the stunner.

“This is definitely out of the ordinary,” Edmunds.com analyst Jesse Toprak told MarketWatch. “I’ve never seen this kind of shutdown for this long.”

At Chrysler, some 46,000 employees will be affected by the shutdown, but will receive about 95% of their pay through unemployment and contributions from Chrysler.

Meanwhile, Chrysler’s new credit terms are forcing some dealers to sell cars at a loss.  At a time when many are struggling to survive, the company’s financing arm imposed large fees on aging, unsold inventory, which could cost dealers hundreds of thousands of dollars in 2009.

David Kelleher, who owns two Chrysler dealerships in metro Philadelphia, told The Wall Street Journal he has 56 vehicles more than a year old, which are subject to the fees.

“I’m taking, in some cases, a loss to get rid of cars before I face curtailment,” said  Kelleher, who is making deals to reduce his aged inventory before he gets a bill from Chrysler on Jan. 1. Kelleher said he knows of many dealers in worse shape.

Any loss of dealers could hurt the automaker’s sales and increase consumer worries about the company’s future.

The company also threatened to temporarily suspend new-inventory loans. Known in the industry as floor planning, the loans are funded by the dealers themselves to stock their  lots with new vehicles and drawn down as they pay off inventory. But since July, dealers have yanked $1.5 billion from the accounts on worries that Chrysler could go bankrupt.

Blaming its woes squarely on the credit crisis, Chrysler said that dealers have indicated “many willing buyers for Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge vehicles,” but have been unable to close the deals, due to lack of financing.

Automakers’ cash troubles are coming to a head, which is what forced General Motors, Chrysler and Ford Motor to conserve cash by halting production at many or all of their plants.

Ford said Wednesday that it would idle 10 North American plants for an additional week in January because of the slumping industry. GM said it will indefinitely delay the construction of a Michigan factory that will make its electric car, the Volt – one of the vehicles GM hopes will help turn the company profitable.

Even Toyota Motor Co. (ADR:TM), the world’s top automaker, told Reuters that it will announce a revised 2009 sales forecast at its end-of-the-year news conference Dec. 22. The company is expected to cut at least one million cars from its original forecast of 9.7 million units.

The Big Three have warned that without a loan package, millions of jobs could be lost, which would send ripple effects through the nation’s already faltering economy. U.S. auto sales sank 37% in November amid talk of a bankruptcy at GM or Chrysler if Washington fails to deliver a massive bailout package

The latest news raises new questions about the viability of any proposed bailout, with some analysts saying a rescue plan – no matter how large – won’t solve the industry’s underlying problems.

“Even though the industry has improved its products in the last few years, the government shouldn’t give the Big Three a dime until they can demonstrate compelling changes to their products, management, and productivity that will be rewarded by increased market share,” said Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald.

Fitz-Gerald estimates the final cost of a rescue package would exceed $100 billion.

Meanwhile, the White House remains evasive about any plans for a bailout.

President George W. Bush said late Wednesday he was “looking at all options,” according to the transcript of a Fox News interview. “A disorganized failure, disorganized bankruptcy or disorderly bankruptcy … could cause great harm to the economy, beyond that which we’re now witnessing. And that concerns me,” Bush said.

The news came a day after the White House warned that the U.S. auto industry would have to make “concessions” to win a government bailout.

“And the other point is that, I’m not interested in … really putting good money after bad,” Bush said.

Big Three to Shutter 59 Plants – Chrysler Forces Dealers to Sell at a Loss

It’s also expected to outline cost cutting measures that could include laying off employees, suspending plant operations, delaying the opening of new plants, and cutting the budget for research and development.

According to several Japanese media outlets, Toyota plans to eliminate bonuses for its executives and is expected to post a second-half loss.

One analyst believes the company’s dividend also could be on the chopping block.

“We anticipate that even Toyota could see its post-dividend cash flow turn negative should it keep its dividends at 140 yen,” Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst Noriaki Hirakata wrote in a report. “Thus, in this perfect storm, we expect the firm to cut its dividend to 100 yen per share for this business year.”

That’s a gigantic step backwards from last year, when Toyota took the crown from General Motors Corp. (GM) as world’s largest automaker by selling 9.37 million cars worldwide.

But like all automakers – and nearly every major industry – Toyota has been crippled by a worldwide dearth in demand, brought on by a whirlwind of job losses, devalued property, lack of credit and falling stock markets.

From January to October this year, Toyota sold 7.74 million vehicles. And during its fiscal first half – six months ended September 30 – net revenues fell 6.3% compared to the same period last year.

Year-to-date, Toyota’s New York-listed ADR shares have fallen about 38%, still much better than GM and Ford Motor Co.’s (F) respective stock declines of 83% and 53%. But recently, Toyota’s ADR shares have been moving forward in hopes that the U.S. government will bailout Detroit’s Big Three – GM, Ford and Chrysler LLC – because that would shore up the auto industry’s underpinnings: Dealerships and parts and supply manufacturers.

The United States is also the largest market for most foreign automakers. Allowing one or all of the Big Three to go under would add millions to the running unemployment numbers and deepen the recession, making the U.S. market less likely to buy their cars.

Source: Toyota to Slash 2009 Sales Outlook, Cut Costs

The bailout package bill for General Motors Corp. (GM), Ford Motor Co. (F) or Chrysler LLC was passed by House lawmakers by a vote of 231-170. Democrats said they reached agreement with the White House on the details of the plan yesterday.

“If we do nothing, we take the risk that, sometime soon, there’ll be no American automobile industry,” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., told MarketWatch.com.

The $14 billion is a long way from the $34 billion now being sought by the Big Three. And that $34 billion was well in excess of the $25 billion in loans the carmakers said they would need. Of the three companies, GM and Chrysler are in the greatest need of cash. Ford says it is seeking a long-term line of credit and doesn’t need money in the short term.

The House bill, if enacted, would do several things. It would:

• Grant the U.S. government warrants for nonvoting stock equal to 20% of the value of the loan it makes to each company.
• Create a White House-chosen “car czar,” an appointee empowered to hold the companies accountable for developing long-term viability plans. The czar would be able to require immediate repayment of the loans if the companies don’t make adequate progress by Feb. 15.
• Require GM, Ford and Chrysler to submit “final” restructuring plans by March 31.
• End such financial standard fare as dividends for shareholders and “golden parachutes” and bonuses for executives – in the interest of conserving cash.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said the bill is “tough love” for the industry but offers the Big Three “a chance to get back on track.”

The Bush Administration said yesterday that the “car czar” would have the power to revoke the loans and develop a new plan – including one that would have the Big Three seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection if the carmakers don’t make progress toward long-term viability by March 31.

“If there’s not a plan that makes these firms viable, the government gets its money back,” Joel Kaplan, deputy White House chief of staff for policy, told reporters.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., unveiled a bill similar to the House measure late yesterday. A vote in the Senate may not come until the weekend, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said yesterday. Congress has been working on this for several weeks.

Shares of GM closed at $4.60 each yesterday, down 2%. Ford shares advanced 2 cents, or 0.62%, to close at $3.25. Chrysler is privately held, with private-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management LP holding a controlling interest. Before Cerebrus bought it, Chrysler had spent years as part of Germany’s Daimler AG (DAI).

Throughout the day yesterday, House and Senate Republicans repeatedly said that a Big Three bailout wouldn’t lead to a long-term viability or competitiveness for GM, Ford and Chrysler. In fact, U.S. Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., who is the ranking GOP player on the Senate Banking Committee, vowed to block the legislation with a filibuster.

“Unless Chrysler, Ford and General Motors become lean and innovative and competitive in the marketplace, this is only delaying their funeral,” Shelby told journalists yesterday.

Of course, as MarketWatch reported, Shelby’s home state of Alabama has provided millions of dollars in subsidies to attract Japan’s Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (ADR: HMC), South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Co. (PINK: HYMLF) and the Mercedes-Benz unit of Germany’s Daimler AG, to build plants that provided 48,457 jobs in 2007. The Toyota Motor Corp. (ADR: TM) factory in Huntsville, Ala., makes motors for SUVs and pickup trucks.

The Wall Street Journal reported that a breakthrough in the negotiations between the White House and Democrats came after Democrats agreed to scrap language that would have forced the carmakers to drop lawsuits challenging tough emissions limits in California and other states.

Reid told MarketWatch that that he needs 60 votes to get the plan through the Senate. A key Democrat, Finance Committee Chairman Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mon., actually came out against the bill, since it contains a tax provision he said that he opposes. Democrats control the Senate by a narrow 50-49 majority.

Dodd said the Senate bill is “a far cry from a blank check to the industry.”

Said Dodd: “The legislation requires these companies to make painful, fundamental changes if they are going to be competitive internationally and viable in the long term.”

Source: Auto Bailout Passes House, Faces Hostile Senate

The bill clearly falls short of the $34 billion the Big Three were asking for, but should be enough to keep the automakers running through January, when the new Congress and Obama administration take the wheel.

As previously reported in Money Morning, there will be limits on executive pay, prohibitions for golden parachutes and requirements that the automakers get rid of their corporate aircraft and not pay dividends while loans are outstanding. The bill also provides a “car czar,” or presidential appointee, to oversee keep tabs on the companies’ restructuring efforts.

Of course, the bill is still awaiting congressional approval and there is cause to believe it may stall in the Senate.

Sen. Richard Shelby, R-AL, was a member of the panel that twice grilled Big Three CEOs and one of the bailout’s most vocal critics. Yesterday (Wednesday), Shelby threatened to filibuster the deal if it reaches the Senate.

It’s interesting to note that Shelby’s home state of Alabama, has built three foreign car assembly plants – Honda Motor Corp. (ADR:HMC), Mercedes-Benz and Hyundai – as well as a Toyota Motor Corp. (ADR:TM) engine plant, in the past 20 years.

Shelby’s efforts induced the formation of Boycott Alabama Now, a group that says it wants America to give Shelby a taste of what he’s doing to America. Such a boycott “will include any travel into the state well as boycotting the purchase of anything produced in any way within the state,” according to the group’s Web site.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell expressed reservations about the bill’s legislation and doubts it’ll garner enough Senate votes to pass. The state he represents, Kentucky, has a 7,000 employee Toyota plant, The Boston Globe reported.

Then there’s Tennessee, the only state with U.S., Asian, and European auto assembly plants. And in an interview with BusinessWeek, Tennessee’s Sen. Bob Corker seems to understand his colleague Shelby’s positions on the bailout more so than his own.

“It has not been an issue of local politics. For me there is no issue of local politics. I try and dig into these issues and present thoughtful responses to the situation. In defense of Senator Shelby, I knew where he was going to be on this issue before this ever arose,” Corker said. “He was against the Chrysler loans back in 1979. He was always going to be against this, as he was against the Wall Street bailout legislation. In his case, it’s not the politics of the auto industry. That’s just who he is.”

But Corker nailed the source of problem.

“Regardless of what happens this week, the legislation, if passed, is not going to move people to buy cars,” Corker said.

Auto Woes Extend Beyond the Big Three

Falling demand is something all carmakers can agree on, especially in Germany, Europe’s largest economy and the home of Europe’s largest carmaker, Volkswagen.

While all focus has been on Detroit’s Big Three, few have noticed that Volkswagen – like Detroit’s Big Three – is trying to bite off its own piece of a broad government bailout. In October, Germany’s parliament passed a $642 billion (500 billion euro) bank-rescue plan to stabilize the country’s banks. And Volkswagen has quietly sought government help for its financial services and banking units.

Premium carmaker BMW said it wasn’t sure if it would ask for similar help, Reuters reported.

That’s why it’s not accurate to assume bailout opponents share the same opinions on the bailout as foreign automakers. As Money Morning previously reported, it’s more than just Big Three employees on the line.

While the Big Three employ more than 200,000 people directly, they support millions more indirectly through suppliers and dealerships. The collapse of the Big Three could ultimately cost the economy more than 2 million jobs total. And that doesn’t count the estimated 1 million Americans – including many retired autoworkers – who rely on the U.S. auto companies for pension and healthcare benefits.

According to Germany’s VDA industry group, parts purchased by manufacturers account for 75% of the value of an average car, Bloomberg reported.

Here in the United States, as many as 60% of Honda’s U.S. parts suppliers are also major parts sources for the Big Three.

If a manufacturer’s major customer goes under, it too may scale back operations and therefore be unable to meet the manufacturing and shipping demands of another customer.

“You can’t underestimate what would happen when a large player collapses,” BMW Chief Executive Officer Norbert Reithofer e-mailed to Bloomberg. “That would impact the supplier structure and therefore the entire industry.”

The United States is also the largest market for most foreign automakers. Allowing one or all of the Big Three to go under would add millions to the running unemployment numbers and deepen the recession, making the U.S. market less likely to buy their cars.

Source: Auto Bailout Awaits Congressional Approval with Millions of Jobs at Stake

So… Yesterday, we saw the euro lead the currencies higher all day, with the single unit finishing the day in the 1.3050 area… I turned on the currency screens this morning, and what did my wondering eyes did appear, but the euro trading at 1.3170, and others bringing up the rear!

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut rates further this morning, bringing their internal rate to 1/2%, 50 BPS, that’s it… So, one would think that bringing your interest rates to near zero, would NOT be a good thing for the currency, right? Well, in this day and age of rewarding a currency for lower interest rates to promote growth, that’s not the case. The franc has rallied on the news… Of course it’s probably just caught up in the euro’s move higher.

Looks like the U.S. House of Representatives approved a $14 Billion package for GM and Chrysler, but the Senate has put some roadblocks out on this deal, and that puts the whole deal in jeopardy… A Final Jeopardy if you will for the contestants Gm and Chrysler! Notice I didn’t include Ford. The people at Ford, backed out, and tried to put a 100 miles of desert between them and GM & Chrysler. Good for them!

Well, earlier in the week, the glimmering light of the bailout for the Big 3, helped the currencies… But now that the Trading Theme seems to be taking its last breaths, the news of the bailout in jeopardy, has helped the currencies, as this would mean that we could finally be back to focusing on fundamentals! Could we really? Is it possible? Well, maybe if you’re real good and take a nap… No wait, that’s what I used to tell the kids on Christmas Eve! It IS possible… But we need a few more days of what we’ve seen so far this week to confirm the Trading Theme to be a thing of the past.

Speaking of things of the past… A Bank of New York (BONY) strategist, issued a statement saying the, “Carry Trade is Dead and Buried.” Hmmm… I beg to differ with him on that, for if we get investors and traders focused on fundamentals again, and the risk takers come out of the woodwork again, the Carry Trade could very well be on the burners again… But then, I do see his thought here and that is (I think it is) that if every Central Bank is cutting interest rates to the bone, there won’t be any “high yielders” left to buy on the buy-side of the Carry Trade. Well, let’s see now… Aussie and New Zealand were the BIG WINNERS of the last Carry Trade craziness, and their rates are lower, but still 3 and 4 hundred basis points above those in Japan, Switzerland and the U.S.! But, the Carry Traders might have to look further, and do some additional leg work this time to find the “high yielders” like… Brazil, and India…

OK… I came across this story yesterday and really had my blood boiling… I wanted to talk to the Big Boss Frank Trotter about it and get his thoughts, but the poor guy was tied up on the phone all day, well, all day that is, until I left to go home! Anyway, here’s the base story, that the entire piece can be read here.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is considering issuing its own debt for the first time, the Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with the matter.

“Fed officials have approached Congress about the move, which could include issuing bills or some other form of debt and would provide the central bank with more flexibility to tackle the financial crisis.”

NOW WAIT JUST A MINUTE THERE BIG BEN! This is the bailiwick of the Treasury Dept, issuing debt! You’ve already got the printing press for currency, and now you want to issue your own Debt? This is complete madness I tell you, complete madness! I think the Fed is thinking of ways to deal with deflation…

Oh well, apparently, Big Ben can do whatever he pleases these days, the new President has named an “energy Czar” and the automakers might get a “Car Czar”, the new President had better think about naming a Fed Reserve and Treasury dept Czar!

OK, yesterday’s printing of the Monthly Budget Statement saw the monthly deficit not “as bad” as forecast, with the figure posting a $164.8 Billion deficit, instead of $171 Billion as forecast… That’s still really bad folks, let’s not get caught up in the media spin of talking about how it “wasn’t as bad as forecast”! Let’s focus on the fact that for the second consecutive month the Budget Deficit widened… And this month it went from $98 Billion in October to $164.8 Billion in November!

Of course you know why this is happening, right? No? Ahhh grasshopper… Recall the bailout money? Well, whenever any of it is spent, it will show up here! Want even further bad news here? Government revenue fell 4.2%, while spending soared 24%!

The Treasury Dept has written checks on all but $15 million of the first half of the $700 Billion allocated to help financial institutions.

So, as I said the other day when I mentioned that the President-elect’s plan to spend more money on infrastructure since 1950 might be the right thing to do at the wrong time… We’ve got the deep, dark recession going on, the Credit Crisis and this collapse of revenue… But don’t let that stop him! Why would we want to stop with the deficit spending here? I shake my head in disgust!

Today’s data cupboard has the Trade Deficit for November, which should narrow, given the collapse of the Oil price. That and the recession should allow the Trade Deficit to narrow… But, let’s not get caught up in the media spin on this too… You see, the Trade Deficit is still $53 Billion, which annually is $636 Billion… Which is probably right about where it will end out this year…

And… $53 Billion still needs to be financed! Let’s not forget that little ditty!

I just watched the euro gap up to 1.32… This is a rout like I’ve not seen since last summer! And wouldn’t you know it, here it is, and I’m going on vacation! Oh well, maybe the old adage that the currencies rally when Chuck’s away, will come back!

I just can’t pass up on this one though… And I know the legal beagles will be all over me on this, but here goes… This certainly looks like the Santa rally that I talked about earlier this week, eh?

I know, I know, it could all be reversed in a New York Minute, but you’ve seen these types of routs before…

Another currency on the rally tracks this week is the Chinese renminbi… After all the “bad talk” about China last week, the Chinese have said, “you’ll be sorry”! What I’m talking about here is the fact that everyone is dissing the renminbi right now, and selling it, and pushing forward contracts down in value… And the Chinese, because they can, have moved the renminbi higher VS the dollar this week! There! In Your Face, disgrace!

So… What’s everyone thinking these days buying Treasuries? I mean, the yield on a 3 month T-Bill is 1 BP! You have to go out 30 years in a Treasury Bond to get 3% yield! OUCH! But, investors keep buying! Well, I think what you’ve got going on here is simply the fact that all this repatriation of dollars has investors with tons of cash, that they don’t want to put into banks, (for a number of reasons, like FDIC insurance limits, shaky banks, etc.) So, they put the cash into Treasuries, realizing that they may not earn any interest, but it will be there when they want it at some point in the future. And this “point in the future” is what scares the bejeebers out of me! Because when the icing is off the cake here, there will be a swift exodus from Treasuries, as no one will want to be the last man standing here… UH-OH! Just be careful folks…

The weekly Initial Jobless Claims will also print this morning. We’ve seen a huge increase to average above 500K in the Weekly Initial Claims, and that should hold true today. This isn’t a good thing folks…

Well, the rally this week hasn’t been cornered by currencies… The Commodities have come back too! Oil is up $2, but the real meat here is the rally in Gold! Gold this morning is perched above $827, when it was sitting at $770 just a week ago!

Currencies today 12/11/08: A$ .6660, kiwi .5525, C$ .8015, euro 1.3235, sterling 1.49, Swiss .84, ISK 215.50, rand 10.13, krone 6.95, SEK 8, forint 199, zloty 3.01, koruna 19.64, yen 91.30, baht 35, sing 1.4890, HKD 7.75, INR 48.30, China 6.8515, pesos 13.30, BRL 2.3950, dollar index 84.33, Oil $45.50, Silver $10.46, and Gold… $832

Source: A Huge Currency Rally

The single unit was higher within the 1.29 handle overnight than it is right now, as it has given back a bit of ground on the news that a European Union Commissioner, Buti, said that, “economic indicators point south very badly.” This is strictly, jawboning to keep the euro’s move VS the dollar in check, folks…

The Bank of Canada (BOC) did cut rates yesterday 75 BPS… You may recall me telling you yesterday that the “experts” thought the cut would be 50 BPS, but I thought it would be 75 BPS… Maybe, one day, these surveys of “experts” will include the Pfennig writer, as he seems to be more “on target” than the current “experts”! Now, Chuck, who would you be referring to here? HA!

I also said yesterday that I didn’t think the markets would care, and they didn’t, as the larger rate cut did little to hurt the loonie. In fact, the loonie rallied a bit on the news!

Again, I don’t understand the mentality here with these Central Bank rate cuts… It’s not the cost of the credit that’s keeping the credit crisis all locked up, it’s the availability of such credit / money! So… Here’s a memo to Central Banks around the world… “STOP ALREADY!” All you’re are doing is inviting inflation into your economy, and debasing your currency!

That glimmering light that I talked about the other day for the Credit Crisis is getting smaller all the time, as the Big 3 still don’t have their bailout from the Gov’t (read taxpayers)… It now looks as though it could get done today, but at a much smaller figure than previously discussed. It now looks as though the Big 3 will get $15 Billion and they had better smile and say “thank you very much” as they leave the room!

It also looks like the Big 3 will get the “Car Czar” that they so desperately fought to keep from looking over them. The “Car Czar” will have the power to call Chapter 11 on GM or Chrysler should they not deliver a sound plan by the end of March. Geez Louise, why do they get 4 months to some up with a sound plan? They should have had one to get the funds to begin with! OK, I had better stop there, I’m really pounding the keys right now… I think I’ll step away for a minute and cool off…

OK, I’m back now, hope you didn’t miss me, or that I was away too long! No wait, this is text, you have no idea how long I was gone! Silly me!

You know… I was thinking aloud in my car yesterday, and saying to myself that it sure looks like all those pundits that called for a breakup of the European Union by the end of the year, will have to put their tails between their collective legs, and fade away… You know, the European Union (EU) had more pressure on them in 2005, when the French voted no on the Constitution, and other things, and they held steadfast then, and if they could it then, then this little tiff with Spain and Italy will pass… These pundits like to point to the problems that Italy is experiencing… And I say…”What’s so new about that? Italy has had problems since I’ve been following currencies (1985 for those of you keeping score at home)! I truly believe that Italy and Spain like to complain about the European Union and the euro, but when they get behind closed doors, when they let their hair hang down, they thank their lucky stars that they were included in the Euro Club!

The boys and girls over at Bank of America (BOA) believe they are seeing the dollar repatriation flows waning… Now, I wonder how many research people they employ over at BOA, when all it would take is for one of them to read the Pfennig, to see that I said all that yesterday! Any way… Let’s listen to what BOA had to say about this… “The repatriation demand for the dollar may have run its course, we retain our core long euro-dollar exposure and add long euro-dollar exposure today”… Now… You would think that given the size of BOA that saying something like that could really “move the market”…

But, given the markets “don’t care” attitude until the credit crisis unlocks, I understand why it didn’t! The BIG POINT here is that we could very well be seeing all this dollar repatriation end. And… Like I said Monday, the risk takers were slowly dipping their toes back into the waters which is what it will take to get the currencies and precious metals on the rally tracks again. But, put these two things working together, and voila’ you’ve got the makings of what could very well be a Santa Rally…

The boys over at the Bank of Japan (BOJ) are at “it” again… Mom… He’s doing it again! He’s looking at me! Mom! He’s got his hand on my side of the car seat! OK, I’ll stop there… But the BOJ was “jawboning” again in an attempt to keep the yen from strengthening further VS the dollar. BOJ Gov Shirakawa reminded the markets last night that the Ministry of Finance has the option of intervening if necessary… The Ministry of Finance (MOF) are the signal callers for the BOJ, and they are the ones that determine if intervention is to come into play. For new readers… BOJ intervention means the Bank sells yen in the markets to keep it from getting too strong.

In the currency world, this is called a “dirty float”… And the MOF and BOJ like to keep it “dirty”…

OK, I was laughing when I wrote that last bit, but notice I didn’t carry on… Maybe I’m growing up! HA!

Down Under in the South Pacific, Australia saw a very nice rise in Consumer Confidence of 7.6%, adding on to November’s 4.3% gain. The index collapsed this summer, but with the rate cuts the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have instituted, it seems to be rounding back into shape.

In New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Gov. Bollard, gave a speech titled “Everyone needs to play their part.” In the speech, Bollard, reminded everyone that New Zealand’s inflation rate is still very high (5.1%). Hmmm… Was that the “wink and nod” that interest rates are not going to go much lower? I think it was folks.. But I guess it all depends on if the rest of the world continues to think that by cutting rates they will unlock the credit crisis!

Both of these things for Aussie and kiwi could underpin the currencies at current levels…

And another “Commodity Currency” the Brazilian real really put on the Ritz yesterday with a very strong rally… Just another sign that the risk takers are dipping their toes again…

OK… I’ll slide away from the currencies for a minute to talk about a news article that one of my fave writers, William Pesek, provided to Bloomberg, titled: China Will Be Happy Geithner Isn’t a Goldman Guy… Here are some snippets of the article that can be read in its entirety HERE.

“Why does Goldman Sachs run your government?”

After seven-plus years in Asia, I’m no longer startled by this question. It was posed to me yet again recently — this time by Kuala Lumpur taxi driver Sumit Kotari.

“What’s wrong with America is that it’s run by investment bankers, mostly from the same bank,” the 49-year-old Malaysian said. “How can Americans stand for it? Is Barack Obama from Goldman Sachs, too?”

It has been reported in Asia that Neel Kashkari, assistant Treasury secretary in charge of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, worked for the same New York-based investment bank. President-elect Obama’s decision to seek advice from other former Goldman Sachs bigwigs, such as Robert Rubin, also grabbed attention.

Even the guy helping choose a replacement for Timothy Geithner at the Fed Bank of New York came from Goldman Sachs. It makes one breathe a sigh of relief that Geithner, who will be the next Treasury secretary, doesn’t have Goldman Sachs on his resume.

The point here isn’t to pick on Goldman Sachs. Yet it is seen by many in Asia as the gold standard of investment banks. Its name also is a byword for the perception of incestuous ties between Wall Street and Washington.”

OK, I’m back now… The point of the discussion is to acknowledge that to Asian, it appears that Goldman Sachs runs our country… Now, that may be perception, but as they teach you perception is reality. And you have to wonder if the Asian Central Banks are shaking their heads at what we’re doing, and how we’re doing it… Now, some might say, “Who cares what the Asian Central Banks think of what and how we’re doing it.?” Ahhh grasshopper… We all have to be very cognizant of what the Asian Central Banks think about us, because, you see… They hold most of our I.O.U.’s and they could make things very messy for us any time they wish!

So… How about the Illinois Gov. getting arrested yesterday? Could it be two Illinois Governors incarcerated? That whole story is pretty amazing that someone would do what he is alleged to have done, knowing that his phone was tapped!

Ok enough of that! We’ll see the Monthly Budget Statement / Deficit for November, today… Look for it to explode!

Currencies today 12/10/08: A$ .6590, kiwi .5465, C$ .7950, euro 1.2950, sterling 1.4830, Swiss .83, ISK 261, rand 10.21, krone 7.0475, SEK 8.1650, forint 203.50, zloty 3.05, koruna 19.99, yen 92.60, baht 35.50, sing 1.5010, HKD 7.75, INR 49.01, China 6.8835, pesos 13.50, BRL 2.4725, dollar index 85.71, Oil $43.80, Silver $10.02, and Gold… $792

Source: A Bailout For The Big 3

“The definition of stupidity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results,” said Albert Einstein.

The best thing that could happen to the auto industry is the Big Three filing for bankruptcy protection. As a former turnaround professional, I am convinced that the tools afforded by the bankruptcy courts would allow these companies to restructure dramatically, thus allowing them to renegotiate and drastically lower most of their liabilities. Management would be overhauled, pensions renegotiated, union agreements tabled and made more flexible. Everything that these three companies have attempted to do for years, and could never achieve, would now be possible.

So, why in the world is management siding with the unions in their appeal to Congress?

Because under bankruptcy protection, management becomes accountable to the court, many of their perks and benefits would be curtailed, and they could, heaven forbid, even lose their jobs.

The auto industry, its unions and allies are therefore quick to point out that they, too, are “too big to fail” (have we heard that before?), that the American economy would not recover from the job losses and the economic impact of failures that would have far-reaching implications.

The Center for Automotive Research (CAR) has just released a comprehensive study on the impact of a 100% failure of the Big Three in the U.S.:

• In the first year, the U.S. economy would lose 3 million jobs (about nine additional jobs for each auto worker that is laid off). It would lose another 2.5 million in year two and 1.8 million in year three.
• U.S. personal income would decline by over $150 billion in the first year and another $250 billion in the next two years.
• Our government would also lose $60 billion in 2009 and almost another $100 billion in the next two years.
• We would lose a piece of Americana (those of you who are nostalgic for the good ol’ days might enjoy the following video clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGZvQoPxhNs)

I agree – it poses a very grim scenario.

In fact, Senate Bill Sec. 402 seeks to “(C) preserve and promote the jobs of 355,000 workers in the United States directly employed by the auto industry and an additional 4,500,000 workers in the United States employed in related industries; and (D) safeguards the ability of the domestic automobile industry to provide retirement health care benefits for 1,000,000 retirees and their spouses and dependents.”

Obviously, the $25 billion approved by Congress on September 24, 2008 is already falling short. It is clearly not enough to deal with a problem of that scale and, the car makers lament, needs to be doubled immediately. But in case you wonder, the industry and its unions do reserve the right to come back for more…

So let’s review some of CAR’s assertions in light of what we know:

Auto sales are forecast to decline from 16.1 million in 2007 to 14.9 million in 2008. 2009 can be expected to be much worse. Spending on capital goods such as cars and trucks will be affected long-term as a result of excessive consumer debt, tighter credit terms, higher unemployment, and a serious recession (or depression).

If car sales decline dramatically, manufacturing capacity has to be reduced to match demand. This means that the less productive plants would be shut down, employees laid off, and that the supply chain would have to adjust accordingly. This is basic economics so far.

Now comes our choice: On the one hand, we have some highly productive global manufacturers that produce fuel-efficient vehicles the U.S. consumer wants and can afford to buy. On the other hand, we have three inefficient companies that produce unattractive gas guzzlers and are plagued with high legacy costs and liabilities (Big Three workers make $73/hr, Toyota’s $48, the average manufacturing worker makes $32). Why should U.S. taxpayers subsidize these losers? Is it so that they can continue to compete unsuccessfully with productive manufacturers and avoid any dramatic (and much-needed) changes in their way of doing business?

In light of the fact that throwing good money after bad almost never works out, I think the U.S. taxpayers should not bail out GM, Ford, and Chrysler. A common-sense alternative would be to save our tax dollars and allow the most efficient manufacturers to gain market share and hire more workers. Ultimately the U.S. market will post sales of 12 to 15 million cars annually. If it takes one, two, or three million fewer workers to produce the cars U.S. consumers can afford to buy, so be it.

A farmer with one modern wheat combine can do the job of a thousand 18th century farm hands. That is a lot of unemployed farm workers, yet nobody demands to return to those good old days. Productivity and efficiency do result in job losses and dislocation, but eventually progress creates new jobs and additional wealth.

Whether a Honda, GM, Toyota, Ford, Hyundai, or VW, currently each and every car still requires one engine and four wheels. Each manufacturer uses basically the same domestic and overseas suppliers, and each has dealers selling its cars (most dealers represent a broad spectrum of brands and will sell whatever car the market wants). The argument that GM closing its doors would result in the loss of 2 million jobs or more is ludicrous as the competitors that pick up the slack will hire workers and buy more from their suppliers. While that may not be good for Detroit, it may be good for the Carolinas or Tennessee.

Simply, business shifting from certain players in the industry to others is called competition. Capitalism and competition are the forces that have made the U.S. the most successful economy for many decades. Granted, it is a harsh reality, but it works, and so far no other system has come even close to creating as much wealth for most of its agents.

Anyone who follows our flagship newsletter, The Casey Report, knows our stance: we hope, most likely in vain, that the new administration will finally come to the realization that no entity is too big to fail. Besides, bankruptcy reorganizations have a much greater chance of success with larger corporations, as they usually have lots of assets to dispose of — assets that can be sold cheaply to new enterprises, which are then able to build businesses on a much sounder basis. In the process, there is innovation and progress.

The choice is clear: Either the Obama administration can continue on the path of nationalizing entire segments of our economy (so far banking, insurance, auto – next, health, airlines…) and run them into the ground. Or it can let poorly managed companies fail, thereby making it easy for successful businesses and new entrepreneurs to buy the assets of these organizations. Step back and let the markets work their magic instead of blaming the market for ills that were created by special interests and poorly designed regulations.

Source: Should the Big Three Be Allowed to Fail?

According to published reports, 25 members of the U.S. Congress have reported on their financial disclosure forms that they own stock in – or have other capital interests in – the Big Three, based on data compiled from the Center for Responsive Politics, a Washington, D.C., research group that tracks money in U.S. politics. [Editor’s Note: Fox News senior information specialist James Farrell pulled the data displayed in the accompanying chart, which was created by Money Morning staffers].

Details of the Bailout

The Big Three initially sought $25 billion in loans – and were almost laughed out of Washington after the chief executive officers of the three companies traveled to Capitol Hill in their corporate jets. And while the new plans include such politically palatable moves as salary cuts for top-tier executives, the sale of cushy corporate jets and the elimination of moribund brands, the three embattled U.S. automakers are also now seeking government aid of as much as $34 billion – which is as much as $9 billion more than that initial $25 billion figure that had been on the table from the very beginning of the industry’s bid for bailout money.
Here’s the breakdown:

• General Motors, the largest domestic automaker, said late yesterday that it is seeking as much as $18 billion to survive into 2010 – and that it needs $4 billion of that cash just this month in order to dodge a bankruptcy filing. GM is seeking a loan of $12 billion. It’s also requesting an additional $6 billion line of credit to provide more cushion, should the severe current market downturn persist.
• Ford is asking for $9 billion. The Dearborn, Mich.-based carmaker hopes it won’t need to utilize the federal loans, and that it just wants to have access to the capital as a backstop. Ford is aiming to return to profitability by 2011.
• Chrysler confirmed its previous request for a $7 billion loan that its executives detailed during Congressional hearings two weeks ago. But it now says that it needs the loans by the end of the year if it’s to survive, because its projected year-end cash reserves of $2.5 billion won’t come close to covering its projected major first-quarter expenses of $11.6 billion, Dow Jones Newswires reported. The loans – coupled with Chrysler’s ongoing restructuring efforts – would keep that carmaker operating through the end of March. But it will need to access the capital before the end of this year.

Ethical Issues?

According to Fox News’ Farrell, judicial ethics rules “prevent any bankruptcy judge with holdings in a company from presiding over a bankruptcy case. Essentially deciding whether the company has to file seems to be a little different.”

Added Farrell: “If GM files for bankruptcy, the stock held by the politicians becomes essentially worthless overnight because they would be unsecured creditors at the absolute bottom of the bankruptcy food chain,” noting that, at a minimum, all shareholders “would get a significant haircut.”

So why is this an issue for Congress? Currently, the bailout of the U.S. auto industry bailout is actually being debated as a specific piece of new legislation. But whether it gets enacted as an amendment to the initial legislation that actually created the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) is not yet clear.

But if it is new legislation, all of Congress will have to vote on it.

Already, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-N.C., who lost her re-election bid, and U.S. Rep. Michael Castle, R-Del., and a number of other Congressmen who own stakes sit on committees that conducted the first hearings on the auto industry bailout request prior to Thanksgiving, Fox News reported.
U.S. Rep. John Campbell, R-Calif., said he only will vote “present” on any automaker bailout, since, as the former owner of a car dealership, still owns land on which his former business sits. According to Rep. Campbell’s staff, Campbell doesn’t even want the appearance of a conflict of interest. But a report indicates Campbell voted “yes” on the financial bailout.

The information on the lawmakers’ holdings came from Congress’s 2007 financial disclosure forms, filed in May 2008, the most recent data available. Members of Congress are not required to report actual dollar sums. Instead, they are allowed to report dollar ranges.

Note: The wife of U.S. Rep. John Dingell is the executive director for public affairs for General Motors, and a descendant of the Fisher brothers, who founded the company that became General Motors 100 years ago, Fox News said.

While Dingell’s spouse, Deborah Dingell, does not lobby Congress or the administration on GM’s behalf, “she makes the case for the company, the auto industry and the state of Michigan in public and in private,” a recent New York Times story says.

Source: Congressional Members Hold Stakes in the “Big Three”