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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; blue chip stocks</title>
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		<title>Sovereign Wealth Funds: $7 Trillion Reasons to Stay Invested</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/sovereign-wealth-funds-7-trillion-reasons-to-stay-invested/16854</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 19 May 2009 18:06:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alexander Green</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alexander Green]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bear market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue chip stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Blue Chips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DGT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Money Market Funds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sovereign wealth funds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U S Stock Market]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=16854</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>In February, I wrote that the decline in stocks was just about over. Why? There was more money available to buy shares than at any time in almost two decades. The $8.85 trillion held in cash, bank deposits and money market funds was equal to 74% of the market value of U.S. companies, the highest ratio since 1990, according to the Federal Reserve.</p>
<p>What happened in the past when cash reached these levels?</p>
<ul>
<li>In September 1974, cash on hand reached $604.5 billion, representing a record 1.21 times the U.S. stock market’s capitalization. That preceded a 31% gain in equities between October 1974 and March 1975.</li>
<li>In July 1982, just as a 20-month bear market was ending, cash as a percentage of the U.S.&#8230;</li></ul>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In February, I wrote that the decline in stocks was just about over. Why? There was more money available to buy shares than at any time in almost two decades. The $8.85 trillion held in cash, bank deposits and money market funds was equal to 74% of the market value of U.S. companies, the highest ratio since 1990, according to the Federal Reserve.<span id="more-16854"></span></p>
<p>What happened in the past when cash reached these levels?</p>
<ul>
<li>In September 1974, cash on hand reached $604.5 billion, representing a record 1.21 times the U.S. stock market’s capitalization. That preceded a 31% gain in equities between October 1974 and March 1975.</li>
<li>In July 1982, just as a 20-month bear market was ending, cash as a percentage of the U.S. stock market’s value rose to 95%. The S&amp;P 500 began a six-month, 36% advance. According to <em>Bloomberg</em>, the eight previous times that cash peaked compared with the market’s capitalization, the S&amp;P 500 rose an average 24% in six months.</li>
</ul>
<p>This time, of course, it didn’t take nearly as long for the market to rally.</p>
<p>Still, the greatest appreciation so far has been in smaller stocks. That’s normal in an early bull market. But if the bull market continues, the big, blue-chip stocks are likely to lead the market higher for two key reasons:</p>
<ul>
<li>First, there is still over $8 trillion on the sidelines earning next to nothing in short-term deposits. Investors tip-toeing back into the market are likely to gravitate here since these stocks are the safest.</li>
<li>And then there is the growing influence of cash-rich sovereign wealth funds…</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Sovereign Wealth Funds &#8211; The Financial Assets of a Country </strong></p>
<p><a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2008/June/sovereign-wealth-funds-2.html" target="_blank">Sovereign wealth funds</a> are the financial assets of a country &#8211; usually part of the national savings &#8211; that are owned and organized into a state-controlled fund and put to work to earn a higher return on investment.</p>
<p>(Sovereign wealth funds are not the same entities as foreign exchange reserves, which are often used for short-term currency stabilization and liquidity.)</p>
<p>In the past, most countries put their liquid assets to work in foreign currency deposits, government bonds or gold. (The hard-working Japanese and Chinese, for example, have kept our interest rates low by maintaining a steady appetite for U.S. Treasury obligations.)</p>
<p>But with the dollar relatively weak and interest rates on Treasuries near record lows, U.S. government bonds are not generating the kind of returns you write home about.</p>
<p>So world governments are slowly moving money into global equity markets. And the sums involved are fairly staggering.</p>
<p><strong>Sovereign Wealth Funds Control More Than $7 Trillion… </strong></p>
<p>According to <em>The Economist</em>, <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2008/january/sovereign-wealth-funds.html" target="_blank">sovereign wealth funds</a> already control more than $7 trillion today. The exact amount is impossible to ascertain due to lack of transparency.</p>
<p>But China, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates alone are known to control more than $2 trillion. And more money is being allocated to these funds all the time.</p>
<p>What does this mean for you as an investor?</p>
<p>Expect to see cash coming off the sidelines to accumulate shares of the largest, most liquid firms around the globe. Quite frankly, they are the only companies that can easily absorb buying on this scale.</p>
<p>For example, take a look at the <strong>Dow Jones Global Titans Fund</strong> (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=DGT" target="_blank">DGT</a>). It holds the world’s 50 largest publicly traded companies.</p>
<p><strong>World-Class Diversification in a Blue-Chip Portfolio </strong></p>
<p>When you buy this cheaply valued blue-chip portfolio, you’re getting world-class diversification.</p>
<p>Companies like:</p>
<ul>
<li>Exxon Mobile,</li>
<li>IBM,</li>
<li>Proctor &amp; Gamble,</li>
<li>Wal-Mart,</li>
<li>Coca-Cola,</li>
<li>Nestlé,</li>
<li>Toyota Motor,</li>
<li>Roche Holdings,</li>
<li>Samsung Electronics</li>
</ul>
<p>… Are just a few of the names that are major holdings of the DGT fund.</p>
<p>These firms will almost certainly be an early stop for U.S. investors who get frustrated with low yields and start venturing back into the game.</p>
<p>These same companies are a natural home for <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2007/20070713.html" target="_blank">sovereign wealth funds</a> &#8211; and the growing trillions they control.</p>
<p>History shows that cash on the sidelines always grows itchy with time. The Dow Jones Global Titans (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=dgt">DGT</a>) is a good way to take advantage of it &#8211; ahead of the crowd.</p>
<p>Source: <a class="post_title" href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/sovereign-wealth-funds-3.html">Sovereign Wealth Funds: $7 Trillion Reasons to Stay Invested</a></p>
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		<title>Buy Quality!</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/buy-quality/16364</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/buy-quality/16364#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 May 2009 16:17:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ted Peroulakis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue chip stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dividends]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic Downturns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Recession]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>I suggest you only purchase companies that have a history of consistently raising their dividends.  These companies will survive and thrive no matter what happens in the economy.</p>
<p>Companies that have followed a policy of consistently increasing dividends have historically outperformed the market.  And the best part–they put a growing stream of cash in your pocket.  Plus, steady dividend growth helps counter inflation which could rear its ugly head due to rampant government spending.</p>
<p>We are still suffering from a financial crisis and global recession… these are still risky times for investors.  One great way to ride out the turmoil is with blue-chip stocks that keep raising dividends.</p>
<p>Another key factor to success is investing in companies that are dominating players in their&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I suggest you only purchase companies that have a history of consistently raising their dividends.  These companies will survive and thrive no matter what happens in the economy.<span id="more-16364"></span></p>
<p>Companies that have followed a policy of consistently increasing dividends have historically outperformed the market.  And the best part–they put a growing stream of cash in your pocket.  Plus, steady dividend growth helps counter inflation which could rear its ugly head due to rampant government spending.</p>
<p>We are still suffering from a financial crisis and global recession… these are still risky times for investors.  One great way to ride out the turmoil is with blue-chip stocks that keep raising dividends.</p>
<p>Another key factor to success is investing in companies that are dominating players in their business.  If you are the key player in your sector then you can raise prices to keep up with inflation.  The market leaders can easily raise capital and survive economic downturns.  These companies are mature cash cows that funnel their excess cash to investors in the form of dividends.</p>
<p>Invest in the 800 pound gorilla!  The one that can crush their competitors by lowering prices if need be.  Recessions and downturns actually make them stronger, because it flushes out the weak players in their space–and they gain market share.</p>
<p>Here are some of my favorite blue chip stocks with steady dividend growth and income.  In addition, they are the dominate player in their industry:</p>
<p>Procter &amp; Gamble Co. (<a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3APG"><strong>PG</strong></a>) provides branded products of superior quality and value to improve the lives of the world’s consumers.  They run a great business and own some of the world’s best brands like Tide, Duracell, Pampers, Gillette and many more.  P&amp;G has increased its dividend for 53 consecutive years.  I believe they will continue to deliver dependable sales and earnings growth over the next several years, benefiting from growth prospects in new markets.</p>
<p>Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (<a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=wmt"><strong>WMT</strong></a>) is the biggest retailer in North America and has set its sights on other parts of the world.  They do great during times of economic downturns because people turn to discount retailers which offer more goods for less money.  Wall-Mart has vast economies of scale and can offer consumers cheap goods while turning a tidy profit.  WMT has increased its dividend for 26 consecutive years and is well positioned to gain market share in an adverse economic environment.</p>
<p>Exxon Mobil Corp. (<a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=XOM"><strong>XOM</strong></a>) is the largest publicly traded integrated oil company on earth, serving customers in over 200 countries.  XOM is well positioned to benefit from higher crude oil prices and is one of the best managed companies in the energy sector.  XOM has increased its dividend for 26 consecutive years and has excellent earnings and dividend growth and stability.  They have $32 billion in cash sitting in the bank which will allow them to gobble up competitors and gain market share.</p>
<p>The Coca-Cola Company (<a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=KO"><strong>KO</strong></a>) is the world’s largest producer of soft drink concentrates and syrups, as well as the world’s biggest producer of juice and juice-related products.  Coke will benefit from higher retail prices as inflation kicks in.  Plus, global demand for Coke’s products has virtually unlimited potential.  Furthermore, people continue to drink Coke’s products during recessionary times like these.  They have increased their dividend for 39 consecutive years.  KO will continue to be a cash cow and pay you a hefty dividend for years to come.  Invest in and Drink Coke…</p>
<p>Please keep in mind that the current rally could run out of steam and we could experience a major market pullback in the near term.  Therefore, you may not want to take a full position in these stocks right now.  Take a position over time by buying in small lots.  Or, wait for a market pullback to get a better entry price.  These are some of the highest quality stocks around, but they are not immune to a market selloff.</p>
<p>If  you’re looking for more high quality income producing stocks I suggest you  subscribe to my colleague Andrew Gordon’s <a href="http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/products/income" target="_blank">Income</a> letter.  He has an excellent portfolio of income producing stocks and the newsletter is only $99 per year.  Get more information on Andrew’s Income newsletter <a href="http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/products/income" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
<p>Source: <a title="Permanent Link to Buy Quality!" rel="bookmark" href="http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/buy-quality.html">Buy Quality!</a></p>
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		<title>Play the Changing Commodities Game with a Click of a Mouse</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/play-the-changing-commodities-game-with-a-click-of-a-mouse/14462</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/play-the-changing-commodities-game-with-a-click-of-a-mouse/14462#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2009 11:00:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lee Lowell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[agricultural commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue chip stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DELL]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Lee Lowell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Natural Gas Stocks]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Volatility]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>If you know how to play the volatile nature of the commodity sector, this article is not for you.  Lee Lowell of the Smart Profits Report gives three reasons why commodity investing has changed for the better, and how to profit from them. </p>
<p>This from Lee:</p>
<blockquote><p>In this globalized world, it’s no surprise to see the world’s financial markets intertwine in some fashion. That’s why we continue to see volatility run at much higher levels &#8211; be it in the stock market or commodities sector.</p>
<p>In the past, the physical and agricultural commodities have typically had very loose ties to the movement of the stock market. After all, why would the falling share price of <strong>Dell Inc.</strong> (Nasdaq: <a title="Dell Inc." onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/www.google.com');" href="http://www.google.com/finance?client=news&#38;q=dell" target="_blank">DELL</a>) have anything to do&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you know how to play the volatile nature of the commodity sector, this article is not for you.  Lee Lowell of the Smart Profits Report gives three reasons why commodity investing has changed for the better, and how to profit from them. <span id="more-14462"></span></p>
<p>This from Lee:</p>
<blockquote><p>In this globalized world, it’s no surprise to see the world’s financial markets intertwine in some fashion. That’s why we continue to see volatility run at much higher levels &#8211; be it in the stock market or commodities sector.</p>
<p>In the past, the physical and agricultural commodities have typically had very loose ties to the movement of the stock market. After all, why would the falling share price of <strong>Dell Inc.</strong> (Nasdaq: <a title="Dell Inc." onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/www.google.com');" href="http://www.google.com/finance?client=news&amp;q=dell" target="_blank">DELL</a>) have anything to do with the price of corn or sugar? Ordinarily, no reason at all &#8211; but it’s not as simple as that any more…</p>
<p><strong>A Changing Commodities World</strong></p>
<p>The commodities world has changed in recent years &#8211; and if you know how to play volatility to your advantage, it’s changed for the better. Here are just three quick reasons why…</p>
<ol type="1">
<li>Instead of farmers merely using the commodities markets to hedge their crop, commodities have become more of a speculative game today.</li>
<li>It’s become very easy to      trade commodities with a click of a mouse today.</li>
<li>Commodities are now seen as a      viable and valuable portion of investment portfolios.</li>
</ol>
<p>As a result of these three reasons, commodities are more subject to large money flows into and out of markets. With more individuals holding more commodities, they can sell off just like any other asset. And this can occur at the same time and with the same force as it does in the stock market.</p>
<p>In particularly volatile, and often irrational, markets like the current one, once the herd mentality takes over, the true fundamental value of crops can get unceremoniously shoved to the back burner in favor of what the crowd is doing.</p>
<p>In any event, the markets seem to have decided which direction they’re going to head in: Down…</p>
<p><strong>Remarkable Value Amid The Market’s Rubble</strong></p>
<p>Speaking of that irrationality I just noted, that’s pretty much the only way to sum up the price of numerous top-quality blue-chip stocks today. Many are trading at 15-year lows, with some even under $10.</p>
<p>But while this may cause some investors to throw a big pity party, if you believe in the long-term viability of the markets, putting some of your money to work today while everyone else is selling, it could present one of the greatest buying opportunities in a lifetime.</p>
<p>As for commodities, they will continue to trade on long-term fundamentals such as crop-growing cycles, weather patterns, herd size, supply and demand, etc. And there are some terrific opportunities here, too. So let’s get to it…</p>
<p><strong>OPEC’s Winter Move Might Not Play Out Till Summer</strong></p>
<p>In July 2008, the oil market began a downtrend that is still going strong today. The black stuff continues to make new lows, interspersed with quick bouts of short-lived upside rallies.</p>
<p>But once the price hits the descending moving averages (see chart below), the market gets knocked down again.  The combination of large oil supplies and waning worldwide demand has kept oil on the defensive, with $25 a barrel still in many analysts’ sights.</p>
<p>Three months on from OPEC’s supply cuts, we’re still waiting for the decision to factor into the market. At the moment, the farther-dated oil futures contracts are still moving lower in tandem with the front-month futures contracts.</p>
<p>I don’t think we’ll see the cuts make a dent in the market until at least June, so it looks like status quo for oil for the time being.</p>
<p><a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/futuresource.quote.com');" href="http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL%20J9&amp;o=&amp;a=D&amp;z=400x300&amp;d=medium&amp;b=bar&amp;st=MA%2820%2C50%2C200%29%3B" target="_blank"><img class="alignnone" title="Status Quo For Oil " src="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/0302oil.gif" alt="" width="400" height="300" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL%20J9&amp;o=&amp;a=D&amp;z=400x300&amp;d=medium&amp;b=bar&amp;st=MA%2820%2C50%2C200%29%3B"><br />
</a></p>
<p><strong>Two Ways To Play Our Bullish Outlook On Natural Gas</strong></p>
<p>In a word… bullish.</p>
<p>That’s my take on the natural gas market, as the front-month futures contract has dipped below the pivotal long-term support area of $4.500 per MMBtu &#8211; a solid support level since late 2002.</p>
<p><a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/futuresource.quote.com');" href="http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=NG%20J9&amp;o=&amp;a=D&amp;z=400x300&amp;d=medium&amp;b=bar&amp;st=MA%2820%2C50%2C200%29%3B" target="_blank"><img class="alignnone" title="Natural Gas Front-Month Futures Contract" src="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/0302natgas.gif" alt="" width="400" height="300" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=NG%20J9&amp;o=&amp;a=D&amp;z=400x300&amp;d=medium&amp;b=bar&amp;st=MA%2820%2C50%2C200%29%3B"><br />
</a></p>
<p>At current levels, I continue to have a long-term bullish outlook. So how can you play the market?</p>
<ol type="1">
<li>Bullish trades involving long-dated, limited-risk options strategies (like option credit spreads) on natural gas futures options contracts, which trade on the NYMEX.</li>
<li>Invest in the Natural Gas      exchange traded fund UNG that trades on the New York Stock Exchange.</li>
</ol>
<p>I currently hold bullish natural gas positions in my <strong><a title="Instant Money Trader" onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/www.web-purchases.com');" href="https://www.web-purchases.com/IMT/EIMTK301/onepageorderform.html" target="_blank"><em>Instant Money Trader</em> </a></strong>and <strong><a title="Triple-Zone Profit Trader" onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/www.web-purchases.com');" href="https://www.web-purchases.com/DFT/EDFTK101/onepageorderform.html" target="_blank"><em>Triple Zone Profit Trader</em></a></strong> service that we run.</p>
<p>Knowing how the market can react to the upside with the threat of cold winters in the Northeast (where a majority of natural gas is consumed) and possible damaging hurricane activity on natural gas rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, I feel bullish plays here have a great risk/reward profile.</p>
<p><strong>When You See The Dip… Buy</strong></p>
<p>Amid all the financial market’s doom and gloom, one of the lone bright spots comes from a sector that we’ve mentioned as a pocket of strength for several weeks here.</p>
<p>It is, of course, the metals market &#8211; home to stalwarts like gold and silver.</p>
<p>Since December 2008, both have bounded along and made large upside moves. April gold futures have now crossed the watershed $1,000 per ounce mark &#8211; an area not seen since July 2008 &#8211; while May 2009 silver futures have managed to pop through $14.50 an ounce &#8211; silver’s first foray to that level since August 2008.</p>
<p><a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/futuresource.quote.com');" href="http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC%20J9&amp;o=&amp;a=D&amp;z=400x300&amp;d=medium&amp;b=bar&amp;st=MA%2820%2C50%2C200%29%3B" target="_blank"><img class="alignnone" title="April Gold Futures" src="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/0302gold.gif" alt="" width="400" height="300" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC%20J9&amp;o=&amp;a=D&amp;z=4000x300&amp;d=medium&amp;b=bar&amp;st=MA%2820%2C50%2C200%29%3B"><br />
</a></p>
<p><a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/futuresource.quote.com');" href="http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=SI%20K9&amp;o=&amp;a=D&amp;z=400x300&amp;d=medium&amp;b=bar&amp;st=MA%2820%2C50%2C200%29%3B" target="_blank"><img class="alignnone" title="May 2009 Silver Futures " src="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/0302silver.gif" alt="" width="400" height="400" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=SI%20K9&amp;o=&amp;a=D&amp;z=400x300&amp;d=medium&amp;b=bar&amp;st=MA%2820%2C50%2C200%29%3B"><br />
</a></p>
<p>In mid-December, we noted that the gold and silver markets were beginning to look tradable again after washing out the <strong><a title="These Commodities Are Starting To Look Tradable Again" href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/archives/commcorner/tradable-commodities.html">speculative selling</a></strong> that had knocked the sector down from its all-time highs in July 2008.</p>
<p>With more “rational” investing now in these markets, and with global stock markets and economies still in turmoil, it continues to keep hard assets like gold and silver as the “go-to,” en vogue safe haven play.</p>
<p>Since we’ve already reached our near-term <strong><a title="As The Economy Heads South, These Commodities Are Pointing North" href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/archives/commcorner/economy-heads-south-commodities-point-north.html">gold price forecast</a></strong> from the my previous column, plus our <a title="Prepare For Profit-Taking In Gold And Silver…" href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/archives/commcorner/economy-heads-south-commodities-point-north.html"><strong></strong></a><strong><a href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/archives/commcorner/economy-heads-south-commodities-point-north.html">silver price outlook,</a></strong> too, we now believe that investors should step into bullish plays on large pullbacks in the gold and silver markets. It’s a strategy that should serve you well for the rest of 2009.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Look for gold to re-test the $865 area, while silver should re-test the $12.00 per ounce level</span>.</p>
<p>And the way to play it…?</p>
<p>Other than looking at limited-risk option strategies from the COMEX futures options market, you can invest in the gold and silver markets through shares in ETFs like the <strong>SPDR Gold Trust</strong> (NYSE: <a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/www.google.com');" href="http://www.google.com/finance?client=news&amp;q=gld">GLD</a>), <strong>Market Vectors Gold Miners</strong> (NYSE: <a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/www.google.com');" href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=gdx">GDX</a>), or <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong> (NYSE: <a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/www.google.com');" href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=slv">SLV</a>). You can also play options on these ETFs.</p>
<p><strong>Drifting Below Support… And Creating Better Value</strong></p>
<p>Having touched support levels that we thought would hold, the coffee and cotton markets have continued to drift lower. This will create an even better level to go long from and we’re just waiting for both markets to find a level that sticks.</p>
<p><a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/futuresource.quote.com');" href="http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=KC%20K9&amp;o=&amp;a=D&amp;z=400x300&amp;d=medium&amp;b=bar&amp;st=MA%2820%2C50%2C200%29%3B" target="_blank"><img class="alignnone" title="Coffee Market Drifts Lower" src="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/0302coffee.gif" alt="" width="400" height="300" /></a></p>
<p><a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/futuresource.quote.com');" href="http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CT%20K9&amp;o=&amp;a=D&amp;z=400x300&amp;d=medium&amp;b=bar&amp;st=MA%2820%2C50%2C200%29%3B" target="_blank"><img title="Cotton Market Drifts Lower" src="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/0302cotton.gif" alt="http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CT%20K9&amp;o=&amp;a=D&amp;z=400x300&amp;d=medium&amp;b=bar&amp;st=MA%2820%2C50%2C200%29%3B " width="400" height="300" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CT%20K9&amp;o=&amp;a=D&amp;z=400x300&amp;d=medium&amp;b=bar&amp;st=MA%2820%2C50%2C200%29%3B"><br />
</a></p>
<p><strong>With A Big Move Back Down, OJ Is Setting Up A Great Potential Entry Point</strong></p>
<p>Lastly, I want to show you a long-term chart for orange juice futures.</p>
<p>This is another market we’ll be watching closely, as it’s now just about retraced the big upside move it made since the wave of hurricanes hit the Southeastern portion of the United States, beginning in 2004.</p>
<p><a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/futuresource.quote.com');" href="http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=JO%20%23F&amp;o=&amp;a=M&amp;z=400x300&amp;d=medium&amp;b=bar&amp;st=" target="_blank"><img class="alignnone" title="Long-Term Chart for Orange Juice Futures" src="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/0302oj.gif" alt="" width="400" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>Each year, during late spring/early summer, the OJ speculators come out of the woodwork, trying to capitalize on potential disaster trades.</p>
<p>If OJ futures can re-touch the lows of 2004, it could be a great place to put in a low-risk bullish trade that aims to take advantage of any disruptions to the orange juice crop from this season’s hurricanes.</p>
<p>Lee Lowell</p>
<p><a href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/archives/commcorner/investing-in-commodities.html">Source: Investing in Commodities: 3 Reasons Why Commodities Have Changed</a></p></blockquote>
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		<title>At Last, A Bailout That Works!</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/at-last-a-bailout-that-works/9522</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/at-last-a-bailout-that-works/9522#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2008 11:31:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Andrew Snyder</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Real Estate Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Snyder]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bear market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue chip stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Homebuilders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing in real estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market bottom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mortgage Rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[real estate market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WFC]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=9522</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Last week&#8217;s government aid package for homeowners appears to be working. Mortgage rates have fallen sharply, sending applications soaring. <strong>Andrew Snyder</strong> says this could be the start of a recovery in the real estate market, which would help stabilize the wider economy. This creates a great chance for profits with discounted blue chips like <strong>General Electric </strong>(NYSE:<a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/finance.google.com/finance?q=ge');" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ge" target="_blank">GE</a>) and <strong>Altria </strong>(NSYE:<a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/finance.google.com/finance?q=mo');" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=mo" target="_blank">MO</a>).</p>
<p>This from Today&#8217;s Financial News:</p>
<blockquote><p>Well look at that. Government intervention is actually helping in a way our lawmakers intended. While not all of the Fed’s programs have been a success, the one it created last week is working to get the nation’s economy back on track.</p>
<p>You may recall the Federal Reserve announced last week that it planned to purchase up to $500&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last week&#8217;s government aid package for homeowners appears to be working. Mortgage rates have fallen sharply, sending applications soaring. <strong>Andrew Snyder</strong> says this could be the start of a recovery in the real estate market, which would help stabilize the wider economy. This creates a great chance for profits with discounted blue chips like <strong>General Electric </strong>(NYSE:<a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/finance.google.com/finance?q=ge');" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ge" target="_blank">GE</a>) and <strong>Altria </strong>(NSYE:<a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/finance.google.com/finance?q=mo');" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=mo" target="_blank">MO</a>).<span id="more-9522"></span></p>
<p>This from Today&#8217;s Financial News:</p>
<blockquote><p>Well look at that. Government intervention is actually helping in a way our lawmakers intended. While not all of the Fed’s programs have been a success, the one it created last week is working to get the nation’s economy back on track.</p>
<p>You may recall the Federal Reserve announced last week that it planned to purchase up to $500 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities from government-sponsored agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Its goal was to grease the rusty gears of the real estate industry and force mortgage rates lower.</p>
<p>The plan worked.</p>
<p>The Mortgage Bankers Association announced this morning that last week’s mortgage application rate skyrocketed a record 112%. With the gauge at 857, applications last week were at their highest levels since late March.</p>
<p>Of course, buyers were not gobbling up homes during the Thanksgiving week because Fannie and Freddie were getting a break. They were applying for mortgages because interest rates are at their lowest rates since 2005. Buyers are getting a fantastic deal.</p>
<p><strong>The boosters are ignited</strong></p>
<p>A week or so ago, a 30-year fixed mortgage came with a rate of close to 6.5%. Today, perspective buyers can lock in a rate with <strong>Wells Fargo </strong>(NYSE:<a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/finance.google.com/finance?q=wfc');" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=wfc" target="_blank">WFC</a>)<strong> </strong>of just 5.375%. That is enough to pull monthly mortgage payments down by several hundred dollars each month.</p>
<p>With rates this low and homes this cheap, buyers are finally realizing the opportunity they have on their hands. Out of all of the deals the Fed has created over the past three months, this one has the most potential of directly helping the American people.</p>
<p>But what about you as an investor? Well, the news is even better. The real estate industry has traditionally been a leading indicator. In other words, it rises ahead of the financial markets. An increase in home purchases and therefore home values, is a surefire indication that the equities market will be making similar moves in the near future.</p>
<p>There are some great investment opportunities out there.  But for now, stay away from traditional real estate plays like REITs and the nation’s large homebuilders. The deleveraging tsunami is still pulling these sectors under and there will likely to be more pain in the near future.</p>
<p>If you want to make conservative investments with larger-than-usual profit potential, stick with the big guys. Blue Chips are a great investment as the nation gets back on track. Companies like <strong>General Electric </strong>(NYSE:<a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/finance.google.com/finance?q=ge');" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ge" target="_blank">GE</a>) and <strong>Altria </strong>(NSYE:<a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/finance.google.com/finance?q=mo');" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=mo" target="_blank">MO</a>) with their strong dividends and proven history of healthy revenue growth are worth your money.</p>
<p>The Federal Reserve is making positive moves, the real estate market is on the rebound and moneymaking opportunities are all over the place. If you are not going to buy a house or two at these great prices, at least invest in a few discounted stocks.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/real-estate/the-real-estate-industry-gets-a-favor-from-bernanke-6049.html">Source: The real estate industry gets a favor from Bernanke</a></p>
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		<title>The Big Lie</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-big-lie/2625</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-big-lie/2625#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 May 2008 16:35:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam Lass</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Politics & Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue chip stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Gutierrez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit Crunch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DIA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DOW]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Henry Paulson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Housing Sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall St]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-big-lie/2625</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Like Cherry Blossoms in Spring&#8230; Believe it or not, we aren’t all philistines here at <a href="http://www.taipanpublishing.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title="Taipan Publishing"  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Taipan</a>.  Some of us are culture-loving poets with sensitive souls… like our very own  options guru Adam Lass, for example. After a new round of falsehoods from Washington, Adam felt the  need to express himself with a haiku. </p>
<p>Here it is:</p>
<p><em>The government lies</em></p>
<p><em>April housing sales not  up</em></p>
<p><em>Get rich buying puts</em></p>
<p>Moving, yes? I don’t know about you, but that makes me think  of balance sheets bursting with red ink &#8212; like the tender blooming of cherry  blossoms in spring.</p>
<p>Read on for more inspired prose from Adam on this  topic.</p>
<p>Warm Regards,</p>
<p>JL</p>


<tr>


</tr><tr>
<strong>***This Simple Secret used by the most successful traders on  Wall Street could make you 135% in&#8230;</strong></tr>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Like Cherry Blossoms in Spring&#8230; Believe it or not, we aren’t all philistines here at <a href="http://www.taipanpublishing.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title="Taipan Publishing"  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Taipan</a>.  Some of us are culture-loving poets with sensitive souls… like our very own  options guru Adam Lass, for example. After a new round of falsehoods from Washington, Adam felt the  need to express himself with a haiku. <span id="more-2625"></span></p>
<p>Here it is:</p>
<p><em>The government lies</em></p>
<p><em>April housing sales not  up</em></p>
<p><em>Get rich buying puts</em></p>
<p>Moving, yes? I don’t know about you, but that makes me think  of balance sheets bursting with red ink &#8212; like the tender blooming of cherry  blossoms in spring.</p>
<p>Read on for more inspired prose from Adam on this  topic.</p>
<p>Warm Regards,</p>
<p>JL</p>
<hr align="center" />
<table style="font-size: 90%; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif" align="center" border="1" bordercolor="#debe7c" cellpadding="4" width="590">
<tr>
<td>
<table align="center" border="1" bordercolor="#debe7c" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="4" width="590">
<tr>
<td bgcolor="#f2ead7" height="148" width="574"><strong>***This Simple Secret used by the most successful traders on  Wall Street could make you 135% in the next 30 days…</strong>For decades, Wall Street’s top traders have used a secret  code to make millions on every trade. Here’s how you can join them and grab a  135% winner–– guaranteed–– but you must get in by May 31, 2008…<a href="http://www.isecureonline.com/reports/WOW/WWOWJ508/" target="_blank">Read all the details here.</a></td>
</tr>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
<h3>The Big Lie</h3>
<h4><em>How to make $12,100 when Washington cooks the books</em></h4>
<p><span class="date"></span>Washington, D.C., has found the perfect solution to all the  manifold troubles rippling out from the real estate crisis: Simply declare that  said crisis doesn’t exist.</p>
<p>Over the past few weeks, we have heard from a veritable  parade of apparatchiks who keep telling us over and over that the credit crunch  is easing. Why just the other day, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told CNBC  that our “rough patch” was coming to an end any minute now.</p>
<p>Paulson even managed to keep a straight face when he  announced that Washington had a “strong dollar policy.” Surely this would  correct any minor errors in our ship of state’s course.</p>
<p><strong>Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics</strong></p>
<p>But Paulson’s soft generalities can’t hold a candle to the  deceptions practiced by his fellow cabinet secretary, Carlos Gutierrez. This  week, Gutierrez’ Commerce Department ginned up a rebound in new home sales  entirely from whole cloth.</p>
<p>Here’s the headline his handy little helpers in the media  slapped onto the press release: “New home sales unexpectedly rise 3.3% in  April.”</p>
<p>This was exactly the sort of “news” Wall Street needed to  staunch six days of bleeding that saw the Dow’s blue-chip inventory lose more  than 5%.</p>
<p>Here’s the critical detail Wall Street missed: April sales  are only “up” because Commerce quietly “revised” March sales even lower than  had previously been admitted. That 3% gain looks pretty paltry compared to an  11% drop.</p>
<p><strong>A Pleasant Surprise  Becomes the Worst News in Decades</strong></p>
<p>Dig a little deeper into the report, and you find out that  this April’s sales are actually 42% behind last April’s, which were 34% behind  April 2006.</p>
<p>Remember the old joke “This restaurant’s food is terrible,  and the portions are too small”? Well, not only have we sold the fewest houses  in 17 years, but last quarter’s 14.1% drubbing is the steepest rate of loss in 20  years.</p>
<p>Not that this news is all bad. Indeed, there is ample reward  awaiting those who bother to dig beneath Washington’s pile of lies.</p>
<p><strong>Knocking Out the  Dow’s Props</strong></p>
<p>If this fib is all that is propping up the market (a simple  enough assertion to check: just take a gander at the “coincidental” timing of  the release and the Dow’s rally), then you can make a quick 121% gain by  immediately buying puts against the blue chips.</p>
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		<title>The Have Mores</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-have-mores/1826</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-have-mores/1826#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 May 2008 23:38:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Byron King</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Politics & Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue chip stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Capital Gains Taxes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Food Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[luxury goods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recession Proof]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Upper Middle Class]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-have-mores/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>During our economic downtime, people are talking about how we’re going to survive on the margins. How are we going to pay for gas, clothes, food or even shelter? But there is another area of the economy that has gone largely unnoticed. What about the luxury goods?</p>
<p>If we go into a recession, who’s going to be buying the Porches, Cristal and caviar? Why isn’t anyone worried about the rich people? They live in the same economy we do and face all the same problems. I guess people just don’t seem to care about the $100,000 birthday party for a two-year-old that gets downgraded to a humdrum $90,000 party.</p>
<p>So how will the rich get by? During tough times, many people are&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>During our economic downtime, people are talking about how we’re going to survive on the margins. How are we going to pay for gas, clothes, food or even shelter? But there is another area of the economy that has gone largely unnoticed. What about the luxury goods?<span id="more-1826"></span></p>
<p>If we go into a recession, who’s going to be buying the Porches, Cristal and caviar? Why isn’t anyone worried about the rich people? They live in the same economy we do and face all the same problems. I guess people just don’t seem to care about the $100,000 birthday party for a two-year-old that gets downgraded to a humdrum $90,000 party.</p>
<p>So how will the rich get by? During tough times, many people are hit hard. We often hear about industries and sectors that are “recession proof.” These are areas of the economy that cannot be negatively affected by a recession for a variety of reasons. Either they exist in an area where demand is constant, or their business model is such that a slower economy can do little to derail them.</p>
<p align="left">But have you heard about recession proof people yet? These are the people that no matter how bad things get, they are able to maintain their current lifestyle for one simple reason: They can still afford it.</p>
<p align="left">~~~~~~~~~~~~~Special~~~~~~~~~~<wbr></wbr>~~~</p>
<p align="left"><strong>Buying Shares for a Fraction of the Price</strong></p>
<p align="left">Can’t afford the best performing blue chip stocks out there? Well now it doesn’t matter. You can buy shares of some of the world’s top companies for as little as a tenth of the share price. And yeah, you still get all the gains.</p>
<p align="left">If you don’t think it’s for real, just <a href="http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1478296/29503460/847768/0/" target="_blank">click here</a>  and see how it works…</p>
<p align="left">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</p>
<p align="left">If you’ve got enough money, a small percentage rise in inflation isn’t going to break your bank. And I’m not just talking about the upper-middle class family in the big house down the street. Even those people are thinking about home equity and capital gains taxes. I’m talking about the guys cruising around on 60-foot yachts, on their way to an island not found on maps, eating some rare and exquisite delicacy we haven’t heard of yet.</p>
<p align="left">In short, I’m talking about real wealth. The kind of luxury and decadence once reserved for a king and his heirs.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>Ultra-High-Wealth Individuals</strong></p>
<p align="left">During a recent Agora Financial editorial meeting in Baltimore, one editor talked about the buying habits of people called “ultra-high-wealth individuals” (UHWIs). These people are not just rich, but really rich. They embody the old maxim that “If you have to ask, you can’t afford it.”</p>
<p align="left">UHWIs are a fast-growing cadre, and not just in the U.S. and Europe. There are rapidly increasing numbers of UHWIs in Russia, Asia, South America, Africa and, of course, the Middle East. And there are discernable investment ideas in this. UHWIs buy planes, trains, automobiles, fancy houses and all other sorts of bejeweled bling. UHWIs have enough money to not worry about energy prices. They do not know scarcity.</p>
<p align="left">Because how can anything be scarce when you have seemingly unlimited means? Some people worry about gold prices as a hedge against a falling dollar. Others worry about gold prices because they are installing a new solid-gold bathtub in one of their several master bathrooms. And others aren’t worrying about the price at all.</p>
<p align="left">If food prices go up 20% or 30%, it means nothing to people with money. But it means everything to those billion or so who earn about $1 per day. So UHWIs do not know scarcity.</p>
<p align="left">~~~~~~~~~~~~~Special~~~~~~~~~~<wbr></wbr>~~~</p>
<p align="left"><strong>A Guest Pass to the Millionaire’s Market</strong></p>
<p align="left">You only have a week left if you still want to get into the millionaire’s market. This is the market where some investors pay $5.8 million just to get in. This is one of the best-kept secrets on Wall Street, and for the next seven days, it’s open to you.</p>
<p align="left">This may be your only chance to see what it’s like on the inside, and put away cash like the big shots. <a href="http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1478296/29503460/847769/0/" target="_blank">Click here</a>  to collect your pass…</p>
<p align="left">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</p>
<p align="left">Still, do you remember this scene in <em>Titanic?</em> The rich guy offered a wad of cash to one of the ship’s crew for a seat in the lifeboat. The crewman smacked the wad away and said, “Your money’s no good anymore.” But our civilization could never get to that point, right?</p>
<p align="center"><strong>“Different from You and Me”</strong></p>
<p align="left">In 1926, the great writer F. Scott Fitzgerald published one of his most famous stories, <a href="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=whiskegunpow-20&amp;o=1&amp;p=8&amp;l=as1&amp;asins=1843914123&amp;fc1=000000&amp;IS2=1&amp;lt1=_blank&amp;lc1=0000FF&amp;bc1=000000&amp;bg1=FFFFFF&amp;f=ifr" target="_blank"><em>The Rich Boy.</em> </a> The narrator begins with words that have become very famous. “Let me tell you about the very rich,” says the narrator. “They are different from you and me.” Later on, Ernest Hemingway added his own spin to that comment by noting, “Yes, they have more money.”</p>
<p align="left">The rich may or may not be all that different from you and me in some fundamental ways. But one thing is for sure. Many of these UHWIs are making their money via the recent increases in the prices of energy and natural resources. So rising costs for energy, and the increasing scarcity of resources, have consequences for some fortunate few.</p>
<p align="left">Now that may be the main difference, and something for many investors to think about. While scarcity can certainly hurt your investment portfolio, and even alter your lifestyle, there is always opportunity lying within scarcity. Of course, nothing is free, and you need to know where to look, but as goods become scarce, opportunities and windows will begin to present themselves.</p>
<p align="left">And while I can’t promise you a new life of helicopter rides and exotic vacation spots, I certainly can offer you some helpful insight and observations. You just need to keep your eyes open…</p>
<p align="left">Until we meet again,<br />
Byron W. King</p>
<p align="left"><strong>P.S.:</strong> In case you’re wondering what kind of energy and resource plays these rich guys are seizing, I’ve got a few gems for you to consider. The readers of my resource letter, <em>Energy and Scarcity Investor,</em>  have just gotten their first crack at these picks and have already seen dividends from their investment. <a href="http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1478296/29503460/847770/0/" target="_blank">Click here</a>  to see the upcoming plays I’m working on…</p>
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		<title>The Shape of Things to Come</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-shape-of-things-to-come/1808</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-shape-of-things-to-come/1808#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 May 2008 17:18:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam Lass</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Stock Market Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Lass]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue chip stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Storm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gdp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Karl Marx]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US stocks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-shape-of-things-to-come/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Karl Marx once  said, “History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.”</p>
<p>If you want a clue as to how the economy and market will act during the coming recession, you need look no further than the charts for 1998-2003.</p>
<p align="left"><strong><br />
</strong></p>
<p align="center"><a href="http://www.isecureonline.com/reports/WOW/WWOWJ408/" target="_blank"></a></p>
<p>In the last quarter of 1999, U.S. GDP grew 7.3%,  unemployment was 4% and change, and the 100 biggest companies in the U.S. (if  not the world) were putting in all-time highs virtually every day.One year later, the economy was dipping into recession (much  as we are today). But unemployment (which would eventually crest 6%) was still  below 4%.</p>
<p>And the supposedly forward-looking S&#38;P 100? Its blue-chip  stocks had only given up 25% of their value, a mere half of the 50%&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Karl Marx once  said, “History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.”<span id="more-1808"></span></p>
<p>If you want a clue as to how the economy and market will act during the coming recession, you need look no further than the charts for 1998-2003.</p>
<p align="left"><strong><br />
</strong></p>
<p align="center"><a href="http://www.isecureonline.com/reports/WOW/WWOWJ408/" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/img/assets/3713/20080505_COD_Chart.gif" alt="The Last Recession... The Next Recession?" border="0" height="739" width="450" /></a></p>
<p>In the last quarter of 1999, U.S. GDP grew 7.3%,  unemployment was 4% and change, and the 100 biggest companies in the U.S. (if  not the world) were putting in all-time highs virtually every day.One year later, the economy was dipping into recession (much  as we are today). But unemployment (which would eventually crest 6%) was still  below 4%.</p>
<p>And the supposedly forward-looking S&amp;P 100? Its blue-chip  stocks had only given up 25% of their value, a mere half of the 50% these  titans of industry would eventually lose before turning the corner.</p>
<p>Today, we are just dipping into the recessionary “red zone.”  Unemployment has already hit the 5% marker. And the U.S. blue chips have “only”  lost some 10%-15% of their value, <u>less than half the losses history warns of</u>.</p>
<p>Will this cycle end tragedy or comedy? That all depends on  how well you prepare for the next downturn.</p>
<p>Adam Lass</p>
<p>Senior Editor, <em><a href="http://www.isecureonline.com/reports/WOW/WWOWJ408/" target="_blank">WaveStrength Options Weekly</a></em></p>
<p align="left"><strong>Three Sectors to Avoid as  2008&#8217;s Plunge Looms</strong></p>
<p>When 2008’s real  financial storm hits, three sectors stand right in the path of  destruction.  Prepare for the worst by  learning the names of nine companies in those sectors that could be hammered  first.  Plus,<a href="http://www.isecureonline.com/reports/WOW/WWOWJ408/" target="_blank"> read about a simple (and  slightly sinister) way you can lock in a 186% gain&#8230;</a></p>
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		<title>The Next Big Thing</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-next-big-thing/1769</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-next-big-thing/1769#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 May 2008 20:17:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Mayer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Politics & Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Altria Group]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[American equities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Apple Computer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bernanke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue chip stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commodities prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumption]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Downsizing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exxon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[High Yield]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Home Values]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hybrids]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[infrastructure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Johnson & Johnson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[medical care]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P.F. Changs China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politicians]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starbucks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[war spending]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Warren Buffett]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p align="left">As times change, so do trends. In the old days, the louder and more powerful your car, the better. Now, green is the name of the game and everyone wants to drive super quiet, efficient hybrids.</p>
<p align="left">&#160;</p>
<p><strong>  </strong></p>
<p align="center"><strong> </strong></p>
<p align="left">The “next big thing” our friends at <em>The <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Daily Reckoning</a></em> recently predicted, “will be downsizing, cutting back, making do. Barely on the radar screen now, thrift is coming into focus more clearly day by day. So far, people are a bit embarrassed about it…a bit ashamed that they have had to cut back. But soon, it will be popular…fashionable…and, finally, almost obligatory.”</p>
<p align="left">This new austerity craze — if/as/when it arrives — will impose hardships on many American companies. But a select few might actually benefit.</p>
<p align="left">The cause(s) of&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p align="left">As times change, so do trends. In the old days, the louder and more powerful your car, the better. Now, green is the name of the game and everyone wants to drive super quiet, efficient hybrids.<span id="more-1769"></span></p>
<p align="left">&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>  </strong></p>
<p align="center"><strong> </strong></p>
<p align="left">The “next big thing” our friends at <em>The <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Daily Reckoning</a></em> recently predicted, “will be downsizing, cutting back, making do. Barely on the radar screen now, thrift is coming into focus more clearly day by day. So far, people are a bit embarrassed about it…a bit ashamed that they have had to cut back. But soon, it will be popular…fashionable…and, finally, almost obligatory.”</p>
<p align="left">This new austerity craze — if/as/when it arrives — will impose hardships on many American companies. But a select few might actually benefit.</p>
<p align="left">The cause(s) of downsizing are pretty clear. Home values are falling so sharply that very few homeowners can still pull equity out of their houses. Stock prices are also drifting lower, more or less. Meanwhile, inflation is ramping up.</p>
<p align="left">~~~~~~~~~~~~~Special~~~~~~~~~~<wbr></wbr>~~~</p>
<p align="left"><strong>At <em>High-Yield International,</em> we’re obsessed with finding the highest-yielding securities in the world — no matter where they hide.  In the process, we’ve uncovered many foreign yields that U.S. investors thought were impossible.</strong></p>
<p align="left">What is the <u>highest yield</u>  we have brought our readers so far in 2008?</p>
<blockquote dir="ltr" style="margin-right: 0px">
<p align="left">(A.)  9.5%<br />
(B.)  11.0%<br />
(C.)  15.2%<br />
(D.)  21.8%</p></blockquote>
<p align="left"><a href="http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1477072/29503460/847658/0/" target="_blank">Click here</a>  to learn the answer&#8230;it’s free!</p>
<p>~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</p>
<p align="left">Prices are rising in Europe as in America. Bread is up 12 percent in Germany over the last 12 months. Butter has gone up 45 percent. Milk, 25 percent.</p>
<p align="left">Higher prices often stem from printing more dollars. “Force-feeding the rest of the world $2 billion per day (more consumption),” Warren Buffett reminded us last week, “is inconsistent with a stable dollar (more inflation).”</p>
<p align="left">We share Mr. Buffett’s concern. Bernanke keeps printing. Politicians keep promising. Bridges keep crumbling. Wars keep spending.</p>
<p align="left">With regret, we read last week that the projected total cost of medical care for U.S. veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars will top $500 billion, a figure on par with the total military spending to wage these wars to date. And speaking of military might, Defense Secretary Robert Gates estimated in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee that the Pentagon will spend upward of $685 billion next year alone. That’s $170 billion more than the $515 billion the president proposed in his first-ever $3 trillion budget.</p>
<p align="left">If that weren’t enough, Gates doesn’t even expect that number to stick. “I have no confidence in that figure,” he admitted. You can expect the estimate to rise in the near future.</p>
<p align="left">A hundred billion here…a hundred billion there. Who’s counting?</p>
<p align="left">Apparently, no one.</p>
<p align="left">But that’s not to say the S&amp;P can’t weather the storm. The companies representing the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 index now derive 49 percent of revenue from foreign markets, up from 30 percent in 2001. Meaning, those with money to burn (Southeast Asian consumers) should keep earnings reports strong. Stronger repatriated currencies should only bolster this trend.</p>
<p align="left">Unfortunately, many Americans believe a strong S&amp;P equals a strong American economy. We tend to see another American economy. We see an economy riddled with debt, more debt and even more debt. We see the American consumer eerily close to tapping out. Thirty-four percent of Americans now believe they are among the “have-nots.”</p>
<p align="left">It serves to reason. More than 405,000 homeowners lost their homes to foreclosure last year.</p>
<p align="left">Most middle-income Americans, the ones driving our buy-now, pay-later economy, have spent well beyond their means. Americans currently perpetuate a negative savings rate. That can’t last forever.</p>
<p align="left">~~~~~~~~~~~~~Special~~~~~~~~~~<wbr></wbr>~~~</p>
<p align="left"><strong>Here’s How the “Millionaire’s Market” Paid Me to Retire From My 9–5 Office Job at 32 Years Old&#8230;</strong></p>
<p align="left">No more ironing shirts and tying ties at 6:15 in the morning&#8230;no more sitting in rush hour&#8230;and no more waiting around at 5:00 p.m. on Friday to pick up my weekly check&#8230;</p>
<p align="left">The Millionaire’s Market changed ALL of that. Now I’m my own boss. You can too, but only if you get in on it now… <a href="http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1477072/29503460/847659/0/" target="_blank">Read this,</a>  before you miss your chance…</p>
<p align="left">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</p>
<p align="left">Cheap oil and cheap credit have fueled this era of consumption…this gilded age of instant gratification.</p>
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