American Airlines, Continental and Delta have all announced cutbacks due to rising fuel costs.

Consumers are also being squeezed. USA Today reports that summer airfares in the US are set to rise by as much as four times thanks to spiraling oil prices.

“The sector-wide downturn is pretty textbook,” says Theo Casey in Fleet Street Daily.

Airliners tend to suffer most in a weak economy. The airlines biz is very cyclical, i.e. very sensitive to the business cycle. Revenues tend to pick up in times of economic expansion, and fall in periods of economic contraction. Airliners also are at the mercy of the oil markets, which are at all-time highs.

This isn’t just a recession. This is a recession combined with the raw asset prices getting too high to handle. Lower revenues were already on the cards with the threat of UK, US and Eurozone recessions. But throwing in oil prices that range from $125 – $135 a barrel, the problem is made much, much worse.

In terms of affordability, air travel has flown in the opposite direction of things like higher education, houses, and designer jeans,” says Andrew Gordon in Investor’s Daily Edge.

People have to fly. And, globally, it’s inevitable that they’ll be flying in greater numbers. Higher prices may slow this trend, but it won’t reverse it. Flying is already taking off in Asia. For example, China’s domestic airline industry is just a fifth of the size of the U.S.’ domestic market, but it’s growing much faster. In 20 years time, it’ll be about half the size of the U.S. market.

And market liberalization is in the air. Many more markets will soon receive a strong boost as governments ease regulations. New Open Skies agreements between the European Union and the United States and Canada are a start. Further market reform will open up Asian and North African markets. The result? The global airline industry will outperform the world economy in the coming years.

The airline industry isn’t so much broken as it is overcrowded. It’s mainly a matter of too many seats available for too few customers. If the industry continues to consolidate, supply and demand should rebalance. Then investors will be able to focus on the solid fundamentals of the industry – reasonable prices and growing demand.

Of course, once explained the answers are obvious. The planes we see flying above us, whether military or commercial, are pretty old and inefficient. New fuel-efficient and eco-friendly ones are badly needed. And that is why we’ve noted this in our diary, because new planes use a lot of titanium… and this commodity is becoming increasingly more valuable.

US giant Boeing is pretty optimistic in its current market outlook. It sees new planes making up 80 percent of the 36,400 airplanes that will be in service in 2026.

Both Boeing and Europe’s giant, Airbus, see huge demand for planes coming from Asia-Pacific. The market is described as dividing up on the lines of 31% Asia-Pacific, 27% North America and 24% Europe. Then by 2026 the emerging countries of Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, with around 3bn people, will also want more planes.

Titanium is magic for aircraft manufacturers. It is corrosion resistant and has the highest strength to weight ratio of any metal. It is as strong as steel but 45% lighter. It occurs in the earth with a number of mineral deposits, principally rutile and ilmenite.

It was discovered in Cornwall in 1791 by amateur geologist and pastor William Gregor, then vicar of Creed parish. Uses have been found for it at a slowly increasing rate. Now it is more fully appreciated, supply is forecast to stay steady (or fall) but demand is expected to rise sharply.

As usual China’s position is key

The titanium minerals market was in deficit last year. As usual with metals and minerals, China’s position is key. It is no longer an exporter. Plus energy shortages in South Africa, producer of 27% of the market, are cutting supplies from there.

While the US has been using less, China has been using more. And whilst titanium’s toughness makes it such a popular alloy for metals, it also goes into paints, coatings and plastics – where its anti-corrosive properties are a winner.

Asia is the fastest growing market with projections of future growth rates of 6-7% a year. China, which has a demand of 650,000 tonnes per year, is seeing growth rates of 10% a year and above – according to producers. The largest amount of titanium consumption is in paints and coatings, followed by plastics. Analysts forecast that China will represent 17% of global consumption by 2010-2011.

India is the next power house with growth rates of 8-10% per year while demand in southeast Asia is growing at a healthy 4-6% per year. Vietnam also has strong growth but from a small base.

Prices of Chinese imports of ilmenite, the main feedstock for titanium, have risen by around 50% so far this year. With global demand for titanium minerals expected to rise by 3.6% this year on average, more price rises seem on the cards. Apparently, a lift of 1% in Chinese GDP results in a 2.2% lift in titanium consumption.

A little Irish one to watch

A little producer that we’ve been watching, although it is still very early days, is actually an Irish company, quoted in Dublin and on AIM. This is Kenmare Resources. Last year it produced 86,000 tonnes of ilmenite, but this is forecast by broker Canaccord to leap to 541,000 tonnes this year and 747,000 next.

So that means, says Canaccord, that it should soon be making reasonable profits — from losses of nearly US$10m last year – to break even this year, and then on to profits of US$19m in 2009, with US$79m in 2010.

By Erin Hamilton and Isabel Turner

Source: Titanium Is Flying High

• Crude oil for July delivery rose $4.33 to $133.38 a barrel yesterday (Wednesday) after U.S. stockpiles showed an unexpected decline. Supplies fell 5.32 million barrels to 320.4 million last week, the biggest drop in four months, according to the Energy Department.

• Time Warner Inc. (TWC) announced yesterday (Wednesday) that it plans to spin off its cable-television unit and receive a $9.25 billion windfall in the transaction, Bloomberg reported. The move will let the company focus on its cable network, entertainment, and publishing operations rather than distribution – something investors have been clamoring for.

• The Boeing Co. (BA) said yesterday (Wednesday) that it would lay off 750 Southern California employees after losing a lucrative military satellite contract and seeing a dip in demand for the technology, the Associated Press reported. The cuts involve engineering staff at plants in El Segundo and Seal Beach.

• Swiss bank UBS AG (UBS) yesterday (Wednesday) sold subprime and other mortgage-based securities to a newly created investment fund run by U.S. asset manager BlackRock Inc. (BLK) for $15 billion, the Associated Press reported. The securities had a nominal value of $22 billion but have been listed with a book value of $15 billion as of March, according to UBS.

• American Airlines, a subsidiary of AMR Corp. (AMR), announced yesterday (Wednesday) that it was taking drastic measures in the face of escalating oil and fuel prices, Reuters reported. The world’s largest airline will cut thousands of jobs, reducing capacity by 12%. American will also charge $15 for passengers’ first checked bag. AMR stock dropped 25% with a $1.98 decline to close at $6.22.

• Shares of corporate debt rating agency Moody’s Corp. (MCO) dropped over 15% yesterday (Wednesday) after a computer glitch mistakenly issued “Aaa” ratings for Constant Proportion Debt Obligations, commonly referred to as CPDOs, Reuters reported. Moody’s stock lost $6.99 to close at $36.91 yesterday (Wednesday).

• The U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation yesterday (Wednesday) that would allow the Department of Justice to sue the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for limiting oil supply and price-fixing, Reuters reported. The measure still needs to be approved by the Senate, but President Bush has already threatened to veto the bill.

• Inflation fears were blamed for the Bank of England’s 8-to-1 decision to hold interest rates steady yesterday (Wednesday), MarketWatch reported. “For most members, a reduction in Bank Rate this month would make it more difficult to keep inflation expectations in line with the target,” the minutes said. For April, consumer inflation clocked in at 3%, above the BOE’s preferred 2% target.

Source: Global Investing Roundups:Thursday, May 22nd, 2008

Shares of the world’s No. 2 commercial jetliner-maker soared $3.53 each, or 4.49%, to close at $82.09 because of Boeing’s record backlog and a bullish outlook for next year. Earlier yesterday the shares touched $83.36, the biggest increase since June 2006.

Investors had pushed the stock down 15% in the quarter over worries about delays in the “Dreamliner” jetliner program, and the surprise loss of a $35 billion U.S. Air Force tanker contract to a team that included Airbus and U.S. defense contractor Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC).

Boeing is one of the companies that Money Morning has written about repeatedly, having identified it as a so-called “Global Titan” – a company that’s positioned to capitalize on worldwide trends and that derives the bulk of its sales and profits from such fast-growing overseas markets as China. Jetliner deliveries rose 8.5% last quarter, with almost two-thirds getting delivered overseas.

Profit from continuing operations rose to $1.21 billion, or $1.61 a share, from $873 million, or $1.12, a year earlier, the Chicago-based Boeing reported. Sales advanced 4.1% to reach $16 billion. The results beat the average estimate of $1.35 per share, according to a survey of 20 analysts conducted by Bloomberg News.

Profit for 2009 will be $6.80 to $7 a share on sales of as much as $73 billion, Boeing said in its first forecast for 2009. That projection also exceeded expectations: Analysts had predicted that profits would increase from about $5.93 a share this year to $6.87 next year – even after about a dozen estimates had been slashed after Boeing announced another delay in its 787 Dreamliner program, the third time the airliner maker has pushed back the scheduled first flight for the high-tech commercial jetliner. But the company announced a record backlog.

“We are encouraged that they added to the backlog in the first quarter,” Eric Marshall, research director at the Dallas-based Hodges Capital Management, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Delays to the 787 Dreamliner program, which dragged down Boeing’s stock price this year, have “created an attractive opportunity for long-term investors. We think the stock could go back above $100 over the next year,” which is why Hodges is adding to its Boeing position of 330,000 shares.

From yesterday’s close, a move to $100 would represent a return of 22%. And that doesn’t include income from Boeing’s current dividend yield of 1.95%.

Weak Greenback Stings Airbus

With a decline in the greenback of nearly 9% so far this year, Boeing has gained an advantage over its bureaucratic European rival, Airbus. Most of Airbus’ costs are euro-denominated, while Boeing’s sales are conducted chiefly in dollars.

Airbus, currently the world’s biggest maker of commercial aircraft, said it’s raising the price of its planes in response to the dollar’s decline against the euro, and to offset an escalation in metal prices fueled by the ongoing global commodities boom.

The list price of the single-aisle Airbus A320-series jet will rise by an average of $2 million as of May 1, while twin-aisle airliners will typically cost $4 million more, the Toulouse, France-based Airbus said Tuesday.

“The price increase is mainly triggered by the weak U.S. currency and the overall increase of the world’s raw-material prices, especially with regards to metal,” Airbus said.

The falling dollar hurts earnings at both Airbus and its parent company, European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co., when revenue from dollar-denominated aircraft sales is “translated” into, or converted into, European euros.

Metal costs also have crimped profits, as the price of aluminum alone has soared 28% just this year, due to supplies constrained by rising purchases in China, and shortages of energy needed to make the lightweight metal.

Conversely, a weakening dollar makes foreign purchases of Boeing aircraft cheaper – almost as if the buyers are getting a price cut. But since Boeing doesn’t have to convert those dollars into a different currency, the “price break” buyers are getting has no effect on its revenue or profit.

Boeing also is getting a boost as carriers such as Continental Airlines Inc. (CAL) buy more of the U.S. airplane-maker’s Boeing 737-class jet to replace older, less fuel-efficient aircraft to reduce the effect of record oil prices. Unfilled commercial orders rose to an unprecedented $271 billion.

Boeing Chief Executive Officer W. James McNerney Jr. had held back his annual forecast until yesterday to learn more about delays in the Dreamliner, which is at least 14 months behind schedule and won’t enter service until late 2009.

Boeing said that its commercial sales rose 8% to reach $8.16 billion, generating a 39% jump in operating earnings, while Boeing’s military business saw sales fall 1.8% to reach $7.58 billion, even as profit increased 10 percent. Boeing is also the second-largest U.S. defense contractor, trailing Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT).

Boeing said today it expects to deliver 500 to 505 airliners in 2009 – up from as many as 480 this year. Asia is expected to be a major market going forward, as will be China. Consider that:

• The global demand going forward is almost beyond belief. China alone will require 3,400 new airplanes worth about $340 billion over the next 20 years – an average of $17 billion annually. And that doesn’t include other Asian markets, such as Vietnam, which will need to modernize their air fleets as they commercialize their commodities.
• The Vietnam deal announced in November is worth $1.9 billion.
• In fact, over the next two decades, Boeing has forecast that air carriers worldwide will need to acquire 28,600 commercial aircraft – with a value of $2.8 trillion.

Boeing spent $1.2 billion last quarter to buy back 15.6 million shares, part of a $7 billion repurchase authorization. Thirteen of 24 analysts in a Bloomberg survey recommend the company’s stock; nine say to hold it, and two recommend selling.

Founded in Seattle by timber millionaire William E. Boeing back in 1916, the company got its start building seaplanes and operating a series of air transport services. In 1933, Boeing built the world’s first true commercial airliner, the Boeing 247, which was all metal, instead of the conventional wood, fabric and metal construction of that time.

But the company really came to prominence in the late 1930s, in the depths of the Great Depression, when it made a bet-the-company decision to develop a long-range Army Air Corps bomber on spec. The four-engined aircraft was so impressive that an awestruck newspaperman dubbed it the “Flying Fortress.” The name stuck. That airplane was the Boeing B-17, a heavy bomber without which most experts say the Allies might never had defeated Germany in World War II.

With the arrival of the jet age in the 1950s, the company risked its own capital to develop what eventually became the Boeing 707, a jetliner that leapfrogged offerings from Great Britain’s De Havilland, France’s Sud Aviation and Russia’s Tupolev – and revolutionized jet airliner travel in the process. A subsequent model, the 737, is the best-selling commercial jet ever. Boeing’s double-decked, humpbacked 747 “Jumbo Jet” debuted in the late 1960s, and opened the door to true intercontinental travel.

Since World War II, Boeing has also been a heavyweight in the defense-aerospace sector, building long-range bombers, aerial tankers, missiles, and helicopters, among other weapons systems. The military-contracting business has helped Boeing through periods in which there might have been a lull in the commercial side of the company’s business.