OK… Well, the Russian Finance Minister, Kudrin, threw a cat among the pigeons yesterday, when he stated that Russia has confidence in the U.S. currency. The markets have reacted violently to this statement, sending the dollar much higher, and the currencies led by the euro, much lower. An overreaction? I think so! But… These are the types of things you watch happen, and be glad you’re not a currency “trader”! For, you would have either experienced a huge loss or gain, or… Been stopped out, and not allowed to participate in the large move… I’m not the “trading” type… I’m all about diversification… So that, when things like this happen, you realize that it’s just “noise” in the markets, and the only thing it creates for you is an opportunity to buy at cheaper levels!

It sure sounds like, looks like, and smells like, a coordinated effort by those that have the most to lose should the dollar continue on it’s downward path of the last 3 months, to get put a lid on their losses… Makes sense… But you have to wonder about what they are really thinking and doing… I’m talking about China, Russia, and Japan, who have ALL stated in the past weeks that “the dollar is fine, and there’s no substitute reserve currency”… These statements all give dollar bulls a boost, and tell them that these countries are not going to back away from dollars and dollar denominated assets.

Now… There’s a BRIC meeting coming up soon… Brazil, Russia, India and China… And while the Finance Ministers of these countries are at the meeting, I doubt seriously that they will hold the same amount of “love” for the dollar… But that sentiment will be kept to themselves, as they don’t want to send the dollar spiraling downward. These BRIC nations had it all going for them until July of last year. They were sent spiraling downward like most assets until March of this year. I would have to think that the Finance Ministers of these countries would be interested in knowing how they can avoid another downward spiral caused by dollar buying… And… This… Would be the key, folks… I don’t know what it would be, but if they did something like a currency swap / foreign exchange line between each other for trade, that would be colossal! Which is bigger than HUGE!

Well… The G-8 meeting this past weekend was centered on an “exit strategy” for the countries that have implemented the various forms of stimulus. I did see one comment on currency that came out of the meeting… German Finance Minister Steinbrück said he had “no problem with the level of the euro” Now that comment alone should have underpinned the euro coming into Monday’s trading… But again, the cat thrown among the pigeons, but Kudrin, has really taken control of the markets’ mindset today.

We will see central bank meetings from Japan, Norway, and Switzerland this week… Don’t expect much from any of them, as interest rates are near to the bone for all… Norway’s Norges Bank has an internal rate of 1.50%, which does give them some leeway for a cut, but again, I just don’t expect anything from any of these Central Banks this week…

In that old comparison thing, when you say this car is uglier than that car… The Eurozone has lost 1.22 million jobs in the first QTR of 2009. Unemployment here is near a 10-year high, and not looking as though it will stop the bleeding any time soon… However, we are all aware of the rot in the U.S. employment picture… In the same period (1st QTR 2009) the U.S. lost 1.912 million jobs… And… We all know the “games people play now, every night and every day now” at the BLS! So… Which car is uglier?

So… As we lead off the this 3rd week of June, we have not only the currencies but, commodities and stocks all in the red from the Kudrin words… (see above, in case you skipped over that, which I can’t imagine any one would do! HA!)

Speaking of commodities… Gold has hit a 3-week low. The shiny metal has had to endure 3 weeks of battering by China, Japan, and now Russia regarding the reduced need for an alternative to the dollar… I wouldn’t think too much of this move… Again, it’s “noise”, and soon the Kudrin words will be a thing of the past, and we’ll get back to the underlying fundamentals of a weak dollar trend eventually… But! It does give those that were thinking they wanted to buy Gold, but it was too expensive, the opportunity to grab some now!

As I turned the computers on this morning, the currencies have lost even more ground, so they haven’t found a stop level yet.

Today, we’ll see the color of the TIC’s data… You know, the Net Security Purchases… This data will be from the month of April…

We’ll also see National Home Builders House price index for this month. I know that quite a few economists believe that the housing markets meltdown has bottomed… But I think this data will prove otherwise.

Wednesday, Big Ben Bernanke and FDIC Chair Sheila Blair speak… You never know what will come out of the mouths of these two! So… We had better keep an eye out, and our ears to the ground, for you never know when you might get another quote from Big Ben like the helicopter speech of a few years ago! Don’t recall that one? Ahhh…

When asked how he would deal with deflation as the Head of the Fed (obviously before he was the Fed Head!) Big Ben reminded everyone that the Gov’t had this technology called a printing press… (he’s talking about printing money here ) and that he would throw dollars from a helicopter to keep deflation from happening…

Well… Minus the helicopter, he’s kept his word, eh? The Printing Press is working overtime and he sure is passing out the dollars to keep deflation from hitting us hard… (personally, I think he failed miserably, but that’s just me!)

So… I see that the President is going ahead with his plans to give the Fed sweeping regulatory powers… Not that I don’t want to see some changes… But again, I ask… The Fed? They’ve done such a masterful job of protecting the value of the dollar since they were created, eh? NOT! 94% loss in value since the Fed took over! Nice job! UGH!

Time to get this out the door, so on to the Big Finish!

Currencies today 6/15/09: A$ .8015, kiwi .6325, C$ .8840, euro 1.3855, sterling 1.6450, Swiss .9170, rand 8.0610, krone 6.4240, SEK 7.8280, forint 202, zloty 3.25, koruna 19.37, yen 98.20, sing 1.4570, HKD 7.7505, INR 48.15, China 6.8363, pesos 13.51, BRL 1.9260, dollar index 80.95, Oil 70.95, 10-year 3.76, Silver $14.33, and Gold $934

That’s it for today… Thanks to all that sent along notes regarding my continuing battle with cancer… Yes, it’s been two years… Seems like a lot longer! This coming weekend will be Father’s Day weekend… Always a good time at my house! The kids will all be here, little Delaney Grace, and others… So… I’m looking forward to that. Two years ago, I spend Father’s Day in the hospital with my kids, so this time around it should be in our beautiful back yard! OK… I’m very late! I hope you have a Marvelous Monday!

Chuck Butler

Source: Throwing A Cat Among The Pigeons!

For some folks, like the current leader Ed Krukonis, the gains are really starting to pile up.  His portfolio is really taking off and is more than double the size of most of his competitors.  It will be interesting to see how his portfolio shapes up as the dollar strengthens and interest rates hold steady.

If you are falling behind and want to catch up, take a look at the options market.

Thanks to The Street’s inability to shake off the temptations of the bulls, the equities market is becoming top-heavy.  With the Dow over 13,000, it can topple and fall at any moment.  Take a short position in the companies that will be hurt most by a weak dollar and a consumer low on cash.  You could be on top of the leader board in no time.

Until next week, enjoy your membership at TodaysFinancialNews.com and keep on trading.

Enjoy your day,
Andrew Snyder

Editors note: Stockonomist: Simulator Weekly Update originally appeared in  TodaysFinancialNews.com LLC – visit Today’s Financial News for more great content.

The Jobs Jamboree… Can you believe that so much attention and drive to the markets is tied to this?

The dollar is a bit softer this morning going into the Jobs Jamboree, and rightly so, given the forecast. However, the dollar is still swinging a mighty hammer and I’m a bit perplexed by this. Last night I was up late (for me) and decided to put down some thoughts that were bouncing around in my head.

Well… How about that U.S. dollar? That’s some currency, Rudy! Why, look at it rallying against the euro (EUR) and other currencies as if it’s on a mission from God! It looks as if the United States has turned things around. The deficit no longer needs to be financed with over $2 billion a day in foreign investment… Interest rates are where they need to be to fight this soaring inflation… The government has stopped spending wildly, and the budget is balanced… The mortgage lenders have recovered all of their losses… There is no longer a credit crunch… And finally, the war is the Middle East is over.

But Wait! Unless I pulled a Rip Van Winkle and slept through all of that… These things haven’t happened, nor do they look as though they might begin to happen any time soon! So, what the heck has the dollar bulls dancing in the streets swinging a mighty hammer?

You’ve got me on this one. Folks, for once, I’ll admit that I have no idea what the heck is going on here… Serenity Now! Is this the pullback in the euro that I said we should look for in January, but never saw? If so… When will the tourniquet be applied to this gushing wound? Hmmmm… Good question! And I don’t have an answer to that either! I thought back in January when the euro was around 1.45, that we could see it fall back to 1.40, before moving ahead again… But that never happened. Instead we saw the euro climb to 1.50, then 1.55, then 1.60 in a little over three months time. Was it too quick? Is that what we’re seeing, merely a technical correction? Or is there something else in the works here?

Again… I don’t know the answer… But I’m hoping that in the days to come, it becomes apparent, and when it does, I’ll be Johnny on the Spot in reporting it to you! (Notice I said, “I’ll be Johnny on the Spot”, and not I’ll be “A” Johnny on the Spot! HAAHAHAHAHA)

This dollar rally has got the “naysayers” coming out of the woodwork too. Oh, the whole lot of them are pointing fingers and claiming they knew the dollar was undervalued, and blah, blah, blah… Where were these guys when the euro hit 1.60 about 10 days ago? They were hiding under the sheets!

Forgive me for this but this reminds me of when I coached my darling daughter Dawn’s girls softball team. The girls would do these chants on the bench that drove me nuts! But there was one that would just make me want to scream! We would be getting beat unmercifully, and the girls would be chanting something that ended with, “We can beat your team any old time.” UGH! But that’s what the naysayers are reminding me of right now. They are chanting about the dollar, when it has gotten beaten unmercifully for six years.

OK… Onto other things… The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index remained well below the 50 level for the third consecutive month. I saw a news story yesterday where the writer was seriously talking about how Manufacturing will pick up due to the stimulus checks, as the receivers of those checks go out and spend them. Folks… The writer was serious…

I’ve told you over and over again that these stimulus checks might get spent by some… But I don’t see the checks getting spent by most. Instead, I see them using the money to pay down a credit card, or some form of debt, as the past couple of months has been quite sobering to the U.S. consumer.

Hey! You’ve got to feel good this Fantastico Friday, as U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson is telling anyone that will listen, that we are “closer to the end” of the credit crisis. Oh, now that gives me a warm and fuzzy, given his track record of spouting off stuff like that in the last year!

I’ll bet him a shiny quarter that we’re only halfway through the credit crisis! The Bank of England (BOE) said yesterday that they feel as though the “worst is over” . Hmmm… Maybe these guys know something I don’t!

Down Under in Australia, retail sales surprised on the upside, printing at +0.5% versus the +0.3% that was forecast. Retail sales account for 40% of private consumption, which in turn accounts for around 60% of GDP… So this is important data for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA will not need any excuses to keep rates at current levels given the strength of this data… And that thought should be a good underpinning for the Aussie dollar (AUD).

The U.S. stock market has been on a feeding frenzy since the rate cut on Wednesday. All this euphoria in stocks has the carry trade going great guns once again… This is being reflected in the price of yen (JPY) and Swiss francs (CHF)… I just don’t see how this can continue to go on and on and on. The carry trade has longer lasting power than the Energizer Bunny! But one day, it will all come crashing down like a house of cards… At least that’s my opinion.

There was another story yesterday about the Gulf States ending their dollar peg. This is getting out of control! About every three months these guys get together and make big plans to drop their dollar peg, and the media goes hog wild over the story. Shoot Rudy, I used to get all caught up in it too until I realized they were just being the boy who cried wolf.

And Rick Pendergraft sees Google continuing it’s search and advertising dominance online even against the possible combination of Yahoo and Microsoft. He says, “Microsoft and Yahoo! would create a virtual monopoly in instant messaging and would put them in a more dominant position in email service and the on-line news arena. But what else would the merger bring to the table?

Legislators are jockeying to voice their opinion on the potential merger. Most of them are concerned about potential unfair advantages for the merged company.

I don’t see it.

As I stated above, the combined entity of Microsoft and Yahoo! would not be dominant anywhere they aren’t already. Google would still be dominant in the search engine and ad revenue areas. I understand the posturing by Google and their CEO, but I for one don’t see the need for concern.”

It was amazing – like watching Hitler get punched in the face by Adam Corolla.

The Dow is showing some weakness up by the 12,800 resistance. MWahahahahhaha!

And then in after hours came news that Alcoa disappointed analysts and profits dropped by about 50%. Then AMD announced job layoffs. And then, to make matters worse, there was news that Dole foods and the Tribune Company were going to have to tap their revolving credit just to pay back the bonds due in the next two years.

In fact, even with this $2 billion account, they still won’t have enough money to pay the bonds back. Not only is this bad for Dole and the Tribune Company, but also the banks!

Think about it. How many other companies are going to be in this same situation in the next year or two? A lot of them – especially if the economy continues to slow down.

As these companies get in ugly situations, the banks are going to be pulling their hair out. Now, they’re going to have to worry about all the loans they made to these companies. And if these companies go bankrupt, then the bank is screwed out of their money.

And this comes at a time when banks are struggling to keep their reserve requirements in tact as they write off billions.

Not looking to good for the open tomorrow, that’s for sure.