Baltimore — (TFN): You don’t believe all the hype do you? As we close out another year and another decade, the pundits are busy rehashing the action of the past ten years.

The political types are discussing the rise and fall of the Bush administration, a couple of wars and the nation’s first black president. The Hollywood folks are talking about the end of the sitcom, the death of an icon and the phenomenon that is American Idol.

And, of course, the financial types are talking about the decade that never happened. You know, the fact that at the start of the decade, the Dow was actually worth more than it is today.

Sure, if you happened to be the poor sap that bought the Dow on January 1, 2000 and held it until today, you’d be down about 9.5%. But I’m willing to bet that is not you.

As a contrarian investor, you are more likely to be holding a pile of gold. In that case, you are sitting on gains of about 300% over the past decade.

But again, I don’t think that is you, at least not entirely. If you are anything like me, you are sitting back, wondering if the next decade is going to be as good as the last.

Think about it. We had high interest rates, record low rates, a housing bubble, a tech bubble, record high oil prices, ultra-low natural gas prices, a couple of wars and the biggest government bailout you could ever imagine.

If you can’t make money in that kind of environment, you flat-out aren’t trying. Even if you racked up 300% gains from gold, you could have and should have done better.

The only thing the last decade proved was buy-and-hold investing is dead. But that’s why we have exchanges, so you can buy and sell assets when the mood strikes.

If you were a true contrarian investor – bought when nobody else was buying and sold when nobody else was selling – you probably just locked in monstrous gains on gold, you are rolling in cash at the moment and are looking for the just the right opportunity to hop back in.

If so, the next year and the next decade are going to treat you very, very well. If you think the last ten years was full of upside downs, wait until you see what’s in store.

Government healthcare, more bailouts, more regulations, more taxes, more government control, more investing options, more interest rate movement, more bubbles, more international exposure… the list goes on and on.

Yeah, we may be back to where we started, but it took one hell of a journey to get us here.

Take my word for it; the next ten years will be the decade for contrarians. Gold will soar. The dollar will fall and interest rates will rise. Better yet, the exact opposite will happen during calculated, short-term blips.

That means we have the kind of market active forward-thinking traders yearn for.

Now is the time to make your move. If you have been sitting on the fence, waiting for the right time, take the end of the year to approach a new starting line and join one of our three services, TFN Strategic Trader, Hot Stock Confidential or Penny Stock Confidential.

All three perfectly play the contrarian viewpoint, and better yet, as a member, you’ll never have to worry about saying, “where’d the last year go?”

You’re at the start of the best decade of your life.

*** As contrarian investors, we like hard assets, the more down and out, the better. Right now, there is no better tangible good, with a worse reputation than good ‘ole American coal. Politicians hate the stuff, factories love it and investors have yet another shot to get rich off of it.

In 2006, I was a bit of a coal industry junkie. I read books on the stuff, wrote countless articles about my research, even went on the radio, TV and the seminar circuit talking about the nation’s dirtiest fuel source.

In today’s world of “green energy” and global warming scares, coal is a nasty four-letter word. But with a couple centuries worth of the stuff buried underground, we all know that’s going to change. Come the next political campaign or environmental hype, coal will launch back into the foreground.

You know it. I know it. And the folks at Bucyrus (NYSE:BUCY) know it. That is why the heavy equipment maker is placing a $1.3 billion coal-industry bet this week.

In a move that tells Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and Joy Global (NYSE:JOYG) that they had better pay attention, Wisconsin-based Bucyrus is cutting a check to Terex (NYSE:TEX) in exchange for the company’s mining business.

Again, this is the kind of far-sighted, buy-when-nobody-else-will move that pays incredible dividends in upcoming years. It’s the kind of stuff contrarians dream about.

Just when the coal industry could look no worse, the sector’s biggest names move their bishops in an ever-lasting game of chess.

Today’s move is beneficial for both sides of the bargain. Terex gets a cash infusion that allows it to concentrate on its core business and Bucyrus gets a hunk of assets that allow it to up the ante versus the industry’s behemoths like Cat and Joy Global.

Here’s what you can expect out of the coal industry over the next year: more consolidation, greatly increased share price, strong demand growth, and, most importantly, better representation amongst the nation’s politicians.

Now’s the time to make your move.

*** I wish I had better news for the gold bugs. It has been dang near a month now since I said to sell the stuff and prices have gone ever since. Don’t blame me. I’m merely the messenger.

There is good news. The downturn won’t last long. It’ll be just enough to get the speculators and the hyperbolic masses off the wagon and then prices will turn north once again.

As soon as the magical metal bars are selling for less than $1050 an ounce, put in your buy orders once again. My take is we’ll see $985 by mid-January, but just in case China makes more waves between here and there, $1050 is a good entry point.

When the stuff is selling for $1250 in April and $1,500 this time next year, the cushion won’t matter so much.

This from Bloomberg:

The Federal Reserve will postpone the release of stress tests on the biggest U.S. banks while executives debate preliminary findings with examiners, according to government and industry officials.

The results, originally scheduled for publication on May 4, now may not be revealed until toward the end of next week, said the people, who declined to be identified. A new release date may be announced as soon as tomorrow, they said.

Regulators and bank executives are concerned about how the disclosure is handled because weaker institutions could suffer a collapse in their stock prices.

“Everybody understands they’ve got a tiger by the tail here,” said Mark Tenhundfeld, a senior vice president at the American Bankers’ Association in Washington. “If they don’t let him go gently, there will be a lot of mauling going on.”

R. Shah Gilani, a retired hedge-fund manager and Money Morning contributing editor who is emerging as an expert on the worldwide financial meltdown, noted that the plan was apparently still that – a plan. Even so, he said that “any bailout plan that directly addresses foreclosures is political posturing that will ultimately be overwhelmed by inevitable economic realities.”

The New York Times carried the first reports of the Bush Administration’s new housing rescue new proposal yesterday (Thursday). According to the newspaper report, this program would be the most sweeping and direct government initiative aimed at home-loan borrowers since the financial crisis started last year.

As proposed, the federal government would incur half the loss on a home loan if the mortgage company that controls the loan agrees to lower the borrower’s monthly payment for at least five years. On any given loan, the mortgage company would reduce the payment borne by the homeowner by writing off part of the loan balance, reducing the loan’s interest rate or changing other loan terms, sources told
The Times.

The newspaper said it could not name the three senior officials who provided details of the plan because it was still being worked out.

In this case, the devil truly will be in the details: Trying to take a massive rescue plan – and matching the benefits up with individual homeowners – may be just too much to ask, Money Morning’s Gilani says.

“Who will be eligible, how will that be determined, what will happen when prices continue to fall and mortgage holders eventually walk away” are just some of the tough questions a workable plan would have to answer, Gilani said. Plus, “is the government going to shackle them to their mortgages the same way they’re shackling taxpayers to all these other ill-begotten bailout schemes?”

The plan – which would be part of the $700 billion banking-system rescue plan the government approved early this month – would cost $40 billion to $50 billion, with the money being used to cover future losses on loans that are deemed eligible for federal support.

That price tag is likely to be very much on the low side, Gilani says.

“The $40-$50 billion price tag could only have been plucked from thin air,” he said. “The real gravity of the problem will weigh in closer to $500 billion – at least.”

Officials with both the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) are collaborating on the proposal, and insiders believe that an announcement may be made sometime soon. FDIC Chairwoman Sheila C. Bair – a leading proponent of such a plan – publicly discussed the possibility a week ago.

Bush Administration officials clearly want to stabilize the U.S. housing market. But that’s easier said than done. Even at a time when roughly one in every 10 mortgages was either delinquent or in foreclosure – as was the case this summer – companies have been highly reluctant to aggressively reduce payments for two key reasons:

• They’re afraid the borrowers might default again.
• And they fear that the buyers of mortgage-backed securities might sue.

By offering to incur half the losses, federal officials hope that the U.S. housing market – and the accompanying market for mortgage loans – might finally settle out, which could also ease the financial crisis even as it provides a bit of a boost to the U.S. economy [For a related story on the U.S. economy – including a look at third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) – check out this report elsewhere in the current issue of Money Morning.]

There’s one key challenge, however: If the economic slump ultimately ends up being deeper and longer-lasting than anyone right now predicts, the housing program could end up being much more expensive than planned – dumping still more unexpected debt onto the U.S. balance sheet. And the plan – or, at least, the details that have leaked out so far – doesn’t seem to address the one key problem with the U.S. housing market: Housing prices keep going down.

“Tragically, there’s no guarantee the plan won’t collapse on homeowners and taxpayers as it does nothing to stem the continuing slide in home prices, which is the real problem,”
Gilani says.

Treasury Department spokeswoman Jennifer Zuccarelli told  The Times that it would be premature to discuss a plan that policymakers were still working on.

“As we said last week, the administration is going through the White House policy process to look at ways to reduce foreclosures, and that process is ongoing,” she told the newspaper. “We have not decided on a particular approach.”

Source: Credit Crisis Expert Says Proposed Plan to Bail Out Delinquent Homeowners May Face Too Many Problems to Succeed