In order to find our entries, let’s first look at what the market’s doing right now, and whether we’ve actually topped out. Here’s a glimpse at the daily index charts off the March 2009 lows:

The NASDAQ, Dow and S&P indexes have uptrends that are still intact. The green lines, the blue line and the 50-day moving average are your guides. As of this moment in time we see no top in the market.

That said, if we see a quick run sometime next week to a retest of the highs and then a pullback off of that retest, those developments will create a double top and I would then be more apt to want to call a short term top at that time.

Why does the presence of a double top cause us to be more likely to change our position on the market? Because the double top is one of the most common early warning alert system patterns telling you a “Change in Trend” may be near.

The Two Ways to Buy a Stock

So now that the indexes are pulling back, but remain in a clearly defined uptrend above their uptrend lines and 50-day moving averages, we want to focus on stocks that are in the same position and have simply pulled back off of their highs to those support levels. This is called trading in tandem with the market.

Now, there are two ways to buy stocks. The first way is to find a stock that has formed a base and buy it when it breaks into new highs above the base. This is called buying a traditional breakout. Here’s a look at a recent breakout:

As you can see from the chart, after breaking out, the stock quickly turned tail to retest what was resistance (now should be support), and actually closed under support or back in the base. If you had bought them with a stop loss, chances are after a few days of feeling good you were stopped out.

Now let’s look at the second way:

As you can see here, this issue broke out. But most breakouts consolidate their gains and retest the area that was once resistance. So rather than chase the stock, we patiently wait for it to come to us.

In this case, the pink line represents the stock’s pullback off of its highs back to what was once resistance -– and is now support. Our buy point is a break above the pink line.

A classic buy support and sell resistance trade. That’s a lot better than chasing a stock only to get stopped out as the stock retests support and then takes off without you.

So what does that mean for us today? It means that since the markets have pulled back to near short-term support, now is the time to be prepared to take advantage of these opportunities — opportunities to buy stocks in confirmed uptrends at a risk-adverse place.

Sincerely,
David Grandey

Source: Buying Stocks Safely Using Alternative Entry Points

• Two people told Reuters that General Motors Co. (OTC:MTLQQ) is prepared to sell Opel, its European carmaker, to Canada’s Magna International Inc. (NYSE: MGA). The board of trustees that controls a majority stake in Opel has the last word on which Opel’s buyer will be. GM was thought to be selling Opel to either Magna of RHJ International SA.

• Nearly 360,000 U.S. housing units – or an average of one in every 357 units – filed for foreclosure in August, down 1% than in July. Nevada remained the state with the highest foreclosure rate, one in 62 units, for the month, followed by Florida’s rate of one in 140,MarketWatch reported.

• The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and kept plans to buy as much as $290 billion (175 billion pounds) in assets to prevent the U.K. economy from slumping further into recession. The U.K.’s FTSE-100 Index responded to the move by rising above 5,000 for the first time in nearly a year, Bloomberg News reported.

• Emerging market stocks, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, are at their most expensive level in nearly nine years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Valuations are 19.9 times earnings, and emerging market shares have risen 53% this year as a result of global government stimulus packages, interest-rate cuts, and optimism that the financial crisis is over.

• House prices in England rose 0.8% in August, their second consecutive monthly gain, according to a survey by HBOS, which is owned by Lloyds Banking Group plc (NYSE ADR: LYG). Prices are at nearly the same level as the beginning of 2009, but 10.1% lower than they were in August 2008, MarketWatch reported.

• Turkey’s economy shrank 7.0% in the second quarter, Turkish Statistics Institute said, a sharp pace but a much better performance than the 8.0% decline many analysts expected,MarketWatch reported. The second-quarter figures are much better than Turkey’s 14.3% gross domestic product (GDP) tumble in the first quarter. Thursday’s data “showed that Turkey has become the latest economy to emerge from recession, rebounding strongly in the second quarter of this year,” Neil Shearing, emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients.

• Japan’s third-largest brewer Suntory Holdings Ltd. is in talks to buy drinkmaker Orangina – maker of Schweppes, Oasis and other brands – from Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) The brewer seeks to expand outside its domestic market, which entrenched deeply in recession during the global financial crisis. “Purchasing Orangina would be a stepping stone to further development in global markets, including Europe,” Shigeo Kikuchi, an equity manager at Takagi Securities Co., told Bloomberg. “Japan’s beverage industry is saturated and companies need to look for overseas markets to grow so the move is inevitable.”

Source: Investment News Briefs Friday, September 11, 2009

Consider this likely scenario: The heavy retail investor inflows into corporate bond funds last spring (far in advance of the peak in defaults, by the way) undoubtedly helped push corporate bond spreads down. The quant funds’ models detected this movement, concluded that the recession might be over, and proceeded to buy stocks that are highly sensitive to future U.S. consumer spending — including banks and REITs. This scenario likely explains some of the rally in bank and REIT shares, which occurred far in advance of the peak in credit losses.

This type of scenario could easily reverse this fall as experienced stock and bond fund managers start to question why they own barely solvent financial companies at valuations that imply 4-5% real GDP growth over the next two years. Huge swathes of the financial sector are insolvent (the mark-to-market value of assets is less than liabilities), and the debate over mark-to-market accounting boils down to whether losses should be recognized up front or over long periods of time. The losses are not going away, and were baked in the cake as soon as the bubble-era loans were made.

Last fall’s panic was not really a “black swan” event; it was the realization that much of the banking system was insolvent and at the mercy of electronic bank runs. Last fall, I thought that at the very least, the authorities had a plan to wind down Lehman in a controlled manner. Instead, Lehman went into forced liquidation and took the “shadow” banking system down with it. Our Lehman puts were huge winners, but even I was surprised at how quickly Lehman stock went to zero.

The issue facing REITs parallels that of the banks: an industry-wide solvency crisis. Only REITs lack access to enormous subsidies from the Federal Reserve, which include the manipulation of borrowing rates down to the range of 1%, resulting in a profitable spread on new lending.

If you carefully consider the combined statistics on commercial mortgage debt, equity, and future rental cash flows, you come to the conclusion that the value of many REITs is permanently impaired. Even if a core group of higher-quality REITs escapes bankruptcy, their equity will still be impaired because lenders will only refinance properties on very tight terms: strict covenants, high interest rates, and requirements of hefty equity infusions into upside-down properties. This is a transfer of wealth from REIT shareholders to creditors. This wealth transfer is occurring through many channels, but the most important one relates to claims on future rental cash flow, which will be bleak regardless of who owns it:

1. Creditors will take a higher share of those rental cash flows via higher interest rates
2. Of the cash flows that trickle down to shareholders, they will be divided up among more and more REIT shares as we see more and more dilutive secondary offerings

This unprecedented collapse in commercial real estate fundamentals means that for the next few years, you can throw out the analyses that rely on “cap rates” to value REITs. Distressed sellers and vulture buyers will make up the bulk of commercial real estate transactions for at least the next few years. Equity looking to invest will be scarce, so it will demand very low prices and high potential returns to invest.

Between now and 2013, $1.6 trillion in commercial real estate debt will mature. Bankers know this, so they’re going to keep conditions very tight for any refinancing that they grant. Plus, a hefty chunk of this debt is held by commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), in which the lenders cannot sit across the table and renegotiate with stressed borrowers; owners of senior CMBS tranches will want to liquidate the collateral to get paid back, while owners of the junior tranches will want to refinance and pray for a recovery in value. I expect the motives of the senior lenders to win out, resulting in lots of property liquidations.

REITs Selling Must Compete to Dump Properties

Lots of REITs have plans to sell properties to pay down debts but… Sell to whom? And at what sort of price? Yet REIT investors seem unaware the hundreds of billions in new equity that creditors will require to refinance mortgages that were made during the 2006-2007 peak in values — and what that catalyst will do to the value of their equity.

On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal ran a story that relates to this theme: “Tishman Faces Office Downturn.” Link in Web Version Only. The article describes the tough choices facing privately owned real estate investment partnership Tishman Speyer, which owns Manhattan landmarks like the Chrysler Building and Rockefeller Center.

Tishman also owns a levered portfolio of Washington, D.C., properties named CarrAmerica. You’d think that with all the crony capitalists flocking to Washington the lobbying business is booming. But apparently, even lobbying is not a strong enough business to justify CarrAmerica charging the pricey rents it needs to pay its mortgages. The WSJ describes the financing problem:

The Tishman partnership that bought the CarrAmerica portfolio has been in talks with its lenders, led by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., since late 2008 about modifying the credit agreement, according to S&P. But so far, nothing has happened and, until now, the talks have been kept quiet. “We have confidence in the long-term value of the properties,” Rob Speyer said.

S&P warned even if Tishman wins new covenants, its ability to refinance the loans in 2011 “will likely require additional capital investment or a recapitalization.” [emphasis added]

The Tishman mortgages were one of many credits that Lehman was marking at fantasy levels. As it turns out, the bears on Lehman were right: The loans that Lehman provided to Tishman to finance its acquisition of Archstone-Smith were impaired soon after they were underwritten.

What will the Tishman family do about its privately held portfolio? How much debt is carried against Tishman Speyer’s properties? I get the impression that it’s a lot, considering Tishman’s aggressive behavior at the market peak (as opposed to, say, Sam Zell, who unloaded a ton of properties onto Blackstone (NYSE:BX) and Maguire (NYSE:MPG), which will both wind up losing most or all of their equity). Tishman Speyer will probably hit a lot of low bids on its second-rate properties to raise the cash that banks will require as new injections in order to refinance — and keep to deeds to — its trophy properties.

The smart money in commercial real estate — including Sam Zell — certainly sees the mountain of debt maturities coming down the pike. Investors will certainly be looking for bargains in commercial real estate, and they will find the best deals in either foreclosure auctions or purchasing commercial mortgages from stressed banks at a discount.

Regards,
Dan Amoss

Source: REITs Racing to Bankruptcy

But now the stock market’s on the mend. In my book, a 49% rally off the bottom for the S&P 500 qualifies as healing.

The economy’s showing signs of improvement. First-time jobless claims have dropped more than 15% since peaking in April.

As for the M&A market, well, it’s still suffering…

Through the second quarter, volume dropped 40.2% worldwide. Deals involving U.S. companies fared worse, dropping 57.5%, according to Thomson Reuters. And July marked the first month in over a decade when not a single deal worth $5 billion or more was announced.

But if you’re serious about investing, you need to know when the M&A market is on the upswing and should be tracking it religiously.

Why?

Because nothing causes stock prices to rise faster and further than an unsolicited takeover offer.

In fact, if we invest in a company before a deal is announced, we stand to pocket an average gain of 43.5% to 53.7%, according to the numbers crunchers at FactSet (NYSE:FDS) MergerStat. In a single day! No other investment strategy can boast the same lightning fast rewards.

Tracking M&A Market Activity With High Credit Spreads

If you’re looking for one number to predict a full-blown rebound in M&A market activity – and signal the best time to invest in takeover targets – try high-yield credit spreads. The spread is simply the difference in interest rates between junk bonds (the typical vehicle used to finance M&A) and comparable U.S. Treasuries.

• When the spread is high – above the historical average of 590 basis points – it means banks consider the risk of lending to suitors to be above average. In turn, they compensate for the higher risk by charging higher interest rates, thereby choking off M&A market activity by making financing too expensive.
• On other hand, when the spread is below the historical average, it means banks consider the risk of lending to be low. In turn, they charge lower interest rates, which encourages M&A activity as companies capitalize on the cheap financing to go on buying sprees.

Right now the spread stands at 857 basis points. At first blush that seems terrible, until you look at this chart.

http://www.investmentu.com/images/iu081209chart.gif

Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, spreads hit a high of 2,180 basis points! So we’re actually down 61% from that level, with momentum squarely on our side.

As this trend continues, financing will become more affordable. In turn, I expect M&A market activity to come roaring back.

The markets remained littered with historic values. More importantly, there’s a mountain of cash waiting to be leveraged and put to work.

Private equity funds alone are sitting on $1.02 trillion in dry powder, according to London-based research house Preqin. Almost half of that – $472 billion – resides in buyout funds. If they don’t find it a home (i.e. – start buying companies), they’ll be forced to return it to investors.

How to Play The Imminent M&A Market Rebound

In previous columns on the takeover boom, I explained my strategy for uncovering the market’s most promising takeover targets and highlighted sectors and companies ripe for the picking.

However, if you’re looking for a more conservative way to play the imminent M&A market rebound, and the acquisitive nature of private equity funds, consider The Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX).

Here’s why…

• Private equity firms typically enjoy the best returns from investments made in a down market. And Blackstone’s sitting on a $26 billion cash pile to take advantage of all the bargains and practice its expertise in distressed investing, deal making and restructuring.
• Sure, other options exist to get exposure to the private equity space and the M&A market, namely Fortress Investment Group, LLC (NYSE: FIG) and Och-Ziff Capital Management Group (NYSE: OZM). But neither stack up to Blackstone in terms of experience, expertise or financial resources.
• Plus, by investing in Blackstone you get a portfolio of companies that are much healthier than the market. Roughly two-thirds of the companies will report positive or flat earnings, compared to just 35% for the S&P 500. And almost no debt is coming due until 2013, eliminating the refinancing risk plaguing countless other businesses.

Tack on an annual stock dividend of $1.20 (equivalent to an 8.4% yield) and this is a no brainer. You’ll get paid to wait for the M&A activity to rebound and the Buyout King to get back to buying.

Good investing,

Louis Basenese

Source: The M&A Market: When This Number Falls, Expect the Takeovers to Heat Up

In the face of gloom-and-doom predictions, rapidly rising unemployment, and an imploding economy, the market’s strong rally clearly anticipates a recovery in late 2009.

Is this just a bunch of bull?

While everyone seems focused on the economy hemmoraging red ink from the gash in the real-estate market, the broken bones of consumer demand and the unconscious state of banking and credit markets, only the stock market, and yours truly, seems to realize that the patient is being effectively triaged.

No, I haven’t lost my senses; I’ve simply regained a sense of optimism. I never drank the poisoned Kool-Aid of markets past and am on record calling in February 2008 for investors to not only “sell everything,” but to “short everything, buy short-dated Treasuries and hold cash, not cash equivalents.” And just because I was right then doesn’t mean that I’m right now; however, like back then, the traffic lights are flashing.

This time, however, they’re green, and not bright red.

There’s no doubt in my mind that the economy has farther to fall. Unemployment will hit double digits. Yesterday, the Labor Department announced that 5.6 million Americans are out of work, and that doesn’t count those who’ve given up looking for work. On top of that it was reported that based on fourth-quarter numbers, gross domestic product (GDP) actually shrank at an annualized rate of 6.3%.

So, what are rallying markets telling us?

First of all, the U.S. Treasury Department may not actually have to spend the approximately $13 trillion in rescue programs teed-up to drive the economy. If investor perception that the U.S. Federal Reserve and Treasury plans might actually work, whatever the details end up being, then traders and risk takers will lead the investing crowd by getting in early before the herd follows suit.

That is exactly what we’re seeing now.

Second, by some estimates, there is more than $9 trillion of cash sitting on the sidelines. I haven’t heard a single market commentator – or so-called expert – illuminate the new market reality, which is that there are far fewer shares available to buyers than anyone realizes.

Since the Tech Wreck of 2000, we haven’t seen any significant issuance of corporate equity. Since late 2007, for instance, the initial public offering (IPO) pipeline flow has been virtually at a standstill.

What hasn’t been at a standstill since 2002 are leveraged buyouts. Low interest rates drove the leveraged buyout (LBO) business, which now goes by the more genteel name of private equity. Giant and once-thriving private equity shops such as KKR & Co. LLP, TPG Capital, Cerberus Capital Management LP, The Blackstone Group LP (BX), The Carlyle Group LP, Bain & Co. Inc., and a host of other multi-billion-dollar buying machines took hundreds of public companies private by purchasing their outstanding stock with leveraged debt.

What will happen to most of these debt-laden “private” companies is another story, but the word “bankruptcy” will be featured prominently in the epitaph-like final chapter of most of their stories. The point, however, is that there are fewer companies and fewer shares for equity buyers to purchase. Add into the equation a share-drop in share prices to levels not seen in decades, and “Presto:” When institutional money and eventually retail buying comes back into the market, those trillions of dollars will be chasing fewer shares at low, low prices. It doesn’t take a Wall Street rocket scientist to figure out that robust demand for cheap assets will fuel a rapid run-up in prices.

As the perception that this dead-cat bounce or bear-market rally has real legs takes hold, more committed buyers will come out of the woodwork, not wanting to miss the opportunity to average down or pick up top-notch household names at bargain-basement prices. [For additional insights on the recent run-up in U.S. stock prices, please click here to check out a news-analysis story that appears elsewhere in today’s issue of Money Morning.]

Increasingly positive market breadth and momentum technicals aside, what’s fueling my optimism is that we’re finally seeing a real effort to constitute meaningful regulatory reforms. Recent statements from President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner echo my clarion calls for regulation of derivatives, market-moving hedge funds and run-amok private equity firms. This week, Geithner said he was pushing “not modest repairs at the margin, but new rules of the game.”

In addition to reigning in freewheeling leveraged wrecking machines, I see unequivocal echoes of my calls for a systemic regulator to monitor all players with the potential to single-handedly corrupt the markets, tightened and more universal accounting standards and a systemic watchdog to monitor threats to markets and the general economic health of the country.

Equally encouraging are statements that signal interest in adopting the “Spanish model” of requiring banks to set aside more capital in good times to cushion their equity and support regulatory reserve and capital ratios in bad times. Also, in a wink and a nod to stemming the moral-hazard implication of charging all banks the same Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) deposit insurance premiums, smaller and better run banks may not have to pony up premiums on an equal basis with insanely large and egregious and incompetently run money center universal banks.

The upcoming G20 meeting on April 2 will spotlight whether America will take charge in orchestrating a better international regulatory order by demonstrating its commitment to meaningful wholesale changes in it own feeble domestic regulatory apparatus. Clearly, President Obama had Treasury Secretary Geithner float several trial balloons this week, and clearly in the face of terrible economic data, the markets found a reason for increasing confidence.

It’s just not possible to say enough about what effects appropriate, protective, and dynamic regulations can do for investor confidence in banks, markets and the safety of committed investment capital.

Unfortunately, as far as the economy, unemployment, embattled homeowners, businesses and devastated investors are concerned, the pain may not be over. On the other hand, if the tide of investor perception flows towards the potential for a safer investing climate and roots itself in anticipation of a stampeding bull run, all boats may rise with the tide a lot sooner than the gloom-and-doomers would have us believe.

I’m looking to the future.

Are you?

Source: Stock Markets Move Past Gloom and Doom in Anticipation of the U.S. Economy’s Recovery

click to enlarge

Silver’s antics were the same as gold’s, although the price action was more exaggerated. Silver began to rise once the London a.m. gold fix was in…then declined until shortly after the London p.m. fix…and then, it too, was off to the upside, following the gold price in lock step. Both silver and gold bottomed at identical times…10:15 a.m. in New York…which, in fact, could have been a slightly later-than-normal London p.m. gold fix [which normally occurs at 3:00 p.m. London time...10:00 a.m. in New York]. The time of the ‘fix’ can vary around those times…depending on what’s happening in the market…the same with the London a.m. gold fix. It’s not 100% cast in stone.

click to enlarge

The changes in open interest for Wednesday’s activity in gold and silver did not impress me much. Gold o.i. actually rose another 957 contracts to 366,228. In silver, open interest fell another 484 contracts to 92,567. The Commitment of Traders report [for positions held at the end of New York trading on Tuesday] will be out at 1:30 Eastern time today, and I’ll report on it in my rant on Saturday. Ted is expecting a big improvement in silver and a smallish improvement in gold. The gold deliveries continue on the Comex…even though it’s not a delivery month for gold. Yesterday, 109 contracts were delivered. The big issuer was Prudential Bache [100 contracts]…and the biggest stoppers were JPMorgan [65] and Fortis Clearing [26]. In silver, there wasn’t much delivered…only 83 contracts in total, as delivery is almost complete. The two issuers were Merrill Lynch [61] and Goldman Sachs [22]. The biggest stoppers were JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) [36] and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) [33]. Comex warehouse silver stock changes yesterday were immaterial. There was no change in the GLD and SLV was down 2.7 million ounces to 253.9 million ounces. Ted Butler had this to say about the decline in SLV over the last couple of days…”My sense is that this last 5 million oz. draw-down was not true liquidation, but intentional withdrawals being made under the cover of share liquidation. Can’t prove it, but that’s what it smells like.”

In the first paragraph above, I used the word ‘may‘ when I referred to the possible double bottom in gold on Wednesday afternoon. Neither Ted nor myself can figure out why JPMorgan and HSBC USA (NYSE:HBC) et al didn’t go for jugular when they had the chance. They could have easily hit gold for another $25 to $30…and silver for a buck…and blasted through the 50-day moving averages for both metals and cleaned out all the tech longs still sitting there…but they didn’t. Or couldn’t. I suppose it’s possible that gold and silver may have had a ‘false’ breakout yesterday…the boyz teeing us up before driving us down the fairway next week during the U.S. Treasury’s auction. Maybe [as I've said a couple of times before] I’m looking for black bears in dark rooms that aren’t there. We’ll find out soon enough.

But having said all that, Thursday was just an excellent day from one end to the other. The shares were on fire. And of note is what happened to Central Gold Trust [a smaller, Canadian-based gold-only, version of Central Fund of Canada]. It’s shares closed at a 33% premium to spot…in both Can$ and US$!!! Someone wanted to be positioned in gold badly…and in a hurry. You’d almost think that they were expecting gold to rise by 30% almost immediately. My answer to that is…bring it on!

In other news…The Telegraph…”ECB cuts rates to record 1.5%, mulls radical action”. ["Radical action" means monetizing debt...printing money...or 'quantitative easing' in today's vernacular. Germany will not be amused. - Ed] In a Financial Times story out of London, I see that “Lehman Brothers’ U.S. liquidators have asked Barclays to explain what happened to an estimated $3.3 billion earmarked for bonuses and other liabilities that the UK bank received when it acquired part of the bankrupt Wall Street company last year.” This request by the liquidators, “underlines the tension between the company’s creditors and Barclays, which acquired the North American arms of the investment bank for $1.5bn after it filed for bankruptcy in September.” And from dominionpaper.ca [filed at Kitco] came this tidbit about the ‘Darth Vader’ of gold companies…”Norway’s Ministry of Finance announced on January 30th that it would exclude mining giant Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) from the country’s pension fund for ethical reasons.” The link is here. [All of us at GATA can think of a lot of other reasons why we wouldn't own shares in this company. - Ed] I see Moody’s may cut Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), JPM outlook to negative. [How about junk...because that's where they're going to end up...probably sooner rather than later. - Ed] JPMorgan closed down 14% yesterday to $16.60. Soon it will be under $1.00…just like Citigroup (NYSE:C) was for a time yesterday. I see that (NYSE:GM) GM “says there is substantial doubt about its ability as a going concern.” [Hey...I've taken advanced management accounting, and they haven't been a 'going concern' for quite a while. - Ed] In a Bloomberg story I note that Blackstone Group LP (NYSE:BX) wrote down to zero the value of billions of dollars of [LBO] debt it bought last year from Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE:DB).

I, like most others, are exhausted by the continuous stream of ugly news and developments. I have a ton of stories that I could run…but have narrowed it down to ‘only’ five. The first is from cnn.com and is headlined “U.S. Lawmakers Clash with Fed over AIG Rescue Strategy” The lawmakers want to know the names of the counterparties that AIG is giving its bail-out money to…and the Fed won’t say. Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., was blunt in his assessment of the windfall to AIG counterparties: “They’ve made out like bandits.” The link is here.

Things got interesting on Jon Stewart’s The Daily Show a couple of days back, when Rick Santelli was slated to appear to discuss the “riot” he incited last week on the floor of the CME. Unfortunately, Rick chose to “bail” on the interview, which did not please Jon Stewart one bit. So Jon ripped Santelli [and CNBS] a new one. It is shockingly blunt…and a virtual criminal indictment of the company. This ‘R‘ rated video clip is about ten minutes long and is an absolute must view. I thank Ted Butler for sending it along. U.S. [and all other viewers] click here…and for copyright reasons, us Canadian viewers have to click here.

In a story filed from Shanghai and posted at chinastakes.com comes this interesting piece entitled “Survey: Over Two-Thirds of Chinese Economists Favor Gold Over US Bonds” They believe…and rightly so… that “the nation should putting more of its hard-earned [money] into gold.” The link is here.

Yesterday I mentioned that Credit Default Swaps on GE (NYSE:GE) bonds were at bankruptcy levels. Well, here’s someone that knows far more about that that I do. This guy [Karl Denninger] is talking Armaggedon! His article is entitled “More GE (Important)”. As a matter of fact, his commentary below that…”What’s Dead (Short Answer: All Of It)” is worth the read as well. The link is here.

And today’s last article is from Sprott Asset Management in Toronto. In their new essay, “As Safe as Gold,” Eric Sprott and Sasha Solunac make the case for the premier precious metal, and they’re careful to distinguish between real metal and exchange-traded-fund metal. Basically, they wouldn’t touch the GLD ETF with a ten-foot cattle prod…and as you know…neither would I. That goes for the SLV, too. “Why take the risk?…Don’t settle for a paper asset — a second-rate knock-off. In this environment, counterparty risk lurks around every corner. Buy the real thing: GOLD, not GLD.” The link to the entire essay is here.

The past seventy-five years have seen the growth of government from a relatively small entity charged with defending the borders, adjudicating disputes, and delivering the mail, to a bloated nightmare creature whose tentacles reach into every corner of our existence. – Doug Hornig, Casey Research

I see in an article filed at forbes.com that Nouriel Roubini has stated that…”in simple words, the U.S. financial system is effectively insolvent.” Here are some more simple words…the rest of the world’s financial system is ‘effectively insolvent’ as well. I see that GE closed the trading day at $6.66 yesterday. Is that an omen or what? But there’s still time to buy more physical gold and silver before the whole system crashes and burns…but not too much.

Source: And Then There’s This…Friday, March 6th, 2009

For those rooting for a revival of buyout activity, the merger of the two companies shows that corporate predators are still on the prowl and adequate financing is still available for some big transactions.

But as Money Morning reported recently as part of its ongoing “Outlook 2009” economic forecasting series, the credit crisis has put the mergers-and-acquisitions (M&A) market into a deep freeze.  And not even the marriage of these two U.S. pharmaceutical giants will be enough to thaw out the deal-making market anytime soon.

Both the size of the deal and the players involved represent a unique combination of favorable financing terms and corporate balance sheets that not many other companies can match in the current economic climate.

Pfizer, a company with strong cash flow and lots of cash on its balance sheet, did get $22.5 billion in financing for the Wyeth buyout, but others are unlikely to get the same terms. The drug company has a rare, stellar “AAA” credit rating from Standard & Poor’s Inc.

Furthermore, lenders are “favoring sectors where there is the most stability” in earnings and revenue outlooks, like health-care stocks as well as certain education and technology firms, Howard Lanser, an investment banker at R.W. Baird, told BusinessWeek.

Other sectors such as retail are currently out of favor and likely to stay that way, he said.

That makes a return to the heady days of the mid 2000s – when bountiful M&A activity lined the pockets of Wall Street investment bankers – an unlikely pipe dream.

The volume of global mergers and acquisitions could fall about 35% in 2009 from an expected volume of $3.1 trillion in 2008, investment bankers say. That would be less than half of last year’s record $4.4 trillion in deals.

“There are substantial headwinds facing M&A and the headwinds are not subsiding,” Cary Kochman, co-head for Mergers and Acquisitions for the Americas at UBS AG (UBS), told the Reuters.

The No. 1 issue is the lack of available credit. Banks and other lenders have pulled back from financing deals, making loans, especially for big deals, scarce and more expensive.

“You are less likely to see deal sizes beyond the $20 billion mark in 2009,” said Larry Slaughter, co-head of European M&A for JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM). “The balance-sheet capacity of the banking system will make it tough to finance much-bigger transactions.”

And fear is playing a close second fiddle to financing as a barrier to any revival of M&A activity.  Most firms are holding onto any cash they have as insurance against a prolonged economic downturn.

“It takes a little courage to step forward and pursue M&A in this environment,” Lanser says. “To spend that cash can be a big psychological hurdle.”

Private Equity & Hedge Funds No Help

Even the so-called “masters of the M&A universe” – the leveraged buyout firms – are unlikely to ride to the rescue this time.

The Blackstone Group LP (BX), the No. 1 leveraged-buyout firm is staying on the sidelines searching for profits by advising companies in restructuring distressed debt.

The company that orchestrated a then record $34 billion acquisition of Equity Office Properties Trust in 2007 is playing a more modest role working consulting with AIG (AIG), as it sheds units worth about $60 billion to repay the government after its bailout last year.

Bankruptcies at investment banking’s most-hallowed companies like Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ) obliterated the global financial system after buyout firms helped inflate the credit bubble.  Now the private equity and hedge funds may be next to go, as LBO deal making enters the gravest crisis in its 40-year history.

Buyout firms such as KKR & Co. (KKR) and the Carlyle Group went on a record-breaking shopping spree in 2006-07, saddling themselves with $1.5 trillion in assets that they intended to sell for a profit. Since then, they haven’t been able to find buyers so they can reap the 20% profits they get for such deals.

“This is part of the biggest bubble to burst in our history.” Roy Smith, a former Goldman, Sachs & Co. (GS) partner told Bloomberg News. As many as 40 of the biggest 100 companies may collapse by 2011 as their debt- strapped assets default, according to a 2008 report by Boston Consulting Group Inc.

“These guys had a sense they could do no wrong,” Paul Schaye, managing partner of New York-based Chestnut Hill Partners, told Bloomberg.. “ Now they’re going through a very sobering experience. They have to figure out how to survive this environment.”

So what will persuade dealmakers to take on added risk in such a gloomy environment? Turns out the the very things preventing consolidation now – the recession and credit crunch – could spark the revival Wall Street craves.

Only the Fit Survive

“There is going to be a need for a lot of companies to consolidate to survive,” Mark DeGennaro, managing director at investment bank Gruppo, Levey & Co. told Bloomberg. Firms with falling sales figures and credit trouble may have no choice but to find buyers – often at very low prices, he said.

Corporations with cash on their balance sheets or stronger share prices have been taking advantage of the drop in equity valuations among their rivals to do deals.

In fact, 2008 was marked by a jump in hostile or unsolicited deal activity, including InBev’s (ABI) planned acquisition of Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc. (BUD) and Exelon Corp.’s (EXC) bid for NRG Energy Inc. (NRG).

And despite the obvious risks, some private equity firms will still dip their toes in the LBO waters.

“The best returns in private equity have come in a period like the one we’re just entering,” Blackstone founder Stephen A. Schwarzman said in a speech to investors and buyout firms in Dubai in October. “This is an absolute wonderful time.”

Another traditional provider of capital – sovereign wealth funds – may also step up to the plate.

“Even though the price of oil is volatile, they have substantial amounts of money…they need to get to work and generate a reasonable rate of return,” Alan Alpert Senior Partner of M&A Transaction Services at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu told Boardmember.com. “I think you’ll see sovereign wealth funds come back into the U.S. market and make investments.”

Source: The $68 Billion Pfizer-Wyeth Deal Won’t Revive the Moribund Merger Market

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months.

But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right – and I have every reason to believe that he will – then investors will be presented with the greatest investment opportunity of our generation. At that point, shares of American companies will be at such low levels that wholesale buying by individuals, mutual funds, pension funds, institutional money managers, and foreign-controlled sovereign wealth funds, will generate gains that will not only make us whole, they will make us rich once again.

A Market Mandela

Creating an analysis of the U.S. economy’s outlook for the New Year is akin to creating a mandala, a geometric work of art whose pattern, symbolically or metaphysically, represents a microcosm of the universe from the human perspective. In some Buddhist temples, mandalas are made of tiny colored beads, painstakingly created by several monks as a form of meditation. In celebration of the ever-changing nature of the universe, the mandala is then joyously shaken by its creators, until it is once again nothing more than chaos embodied in a box of colored beads.

Regardless of the big picture, analysis of a mandala – or the economy – always starts at the center and emanates outward. With the U.S. economy, that centerpiece is credit. The credit crisis has shaken the complex mandala that is our economy and transformed the United States economy into chaos. It’s complex because this economic-forecast mandala derived its form from thousands of individual pieces – in the case of the economy, from scores of data points, many of which are currently dark and foreboding.

The credit crisis we are experiencing results from the contraction – or worse, the cessation – of lending. Under normal circumstances, institutions and markets freely facilitate capital movement between lenders and borrowers. But that’s not happening, now.

Because of a lack of transparency into the balance sheets of borrowers holding such complex and illiquid securities as collateralized debt obligations, credit-default swaps, and non-performing loans, and because of increasing recessionary fears affecting businesses and households, lenders don’t want to increase their loan exposure. Banks are holding onto the cash and liquid securities they control, using them as a cushion against their own potential losses. The U.S. Treasury Department’s direct-to-bank capital injections do not alter these banking realities. In fact, as a Money Morning investigative story recently demonstrated, instead of using these taxpayer-provided infusions to increase their lending, these banks are using the money to finance takeover deals.

The Recipe for a Recession

Whether or not the United States is technically in a recession ultimately will be divined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The business-cycle dating committee of this privately run, nonprofit economic research group is right now studying five factors in an attempt to determine if the United States has entered a recession and, if so, when that downturn started, MarketWatch.com reported. Those five factors are:

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
• Industrial production.
• Employment
• Income.
• Retail sales.

Regardless of any formal announcement by the NBER of whether we’re in a recession, the credit crisis guarantees a general contraction of economic activity, by every measure.

“Any doubt that we’re officially in a recession can be put aside,” Anthony Karydakis, former chief U.S. economist for JPMorgan Asset Management (JPM) – and now a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business – recently wrote in Fortune magazine. “The rapid deterioration of labor markets points to a sharp decline in hours worked and output in the fourth quarter. This is likely to lead to a decline in personal consumption to the tune of 5.0% or so for that period. Since [consumer spending] makes up about 70% of the economy, the stage has already been set for real GDP to shrink at a more than 4.0% rate in the fourth quarter.”

Confirmation of that belief is evident by looking at each of the NBER’s five key indicators.

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The U.S. Commerce Department estimated that the U.S. economy, as measured by GDP, rose 0.9% in the first quarter. In the second quarter, GDP advanced an estimated 2.8%. For the third quarter, GDP declined an estimated 0.3%. My own econometric models suggest that GDP actually contracted at a 1.5% pace in the third quarter and will decline another 2.75% in the fourth quarter. For the year, that would mean the U.S. economy actually fell 0.55%. The U.S. economy last posted a full year’s negative GDP in 1991, when it declined 0.2%. Verdict: Recession.
• Industrial Production: This measure of output by the nation’s factories and mines dropped 2.8% in September, and a very steep 6.0% in the third quarter. Verdict: Recession.
• Employment: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday that October’s unemployment rate was 6.5%, a jump of 0.4%, which was double what most economists expected, and also its highest level in 14 years. The economy has now lost a total of 1.2 million jobs since the beginning of the year, with nearly half of those losses occurring in the last three months alone, pointing to an acceleration in the pace of erosion in labor markets. Karydakis, the Stern School professor, wrote in
  Fortune : “By way of comparison, during the 2001 recession and in the sluggish growth that followed in 2002-03, the unemployment rate reached a peak of only 6.3%, in June 2003. We’ve already exceeded that mark and, given that we are still in the early phase of the current recession, the unemployment rate should be expected to push toward the 7.5% range – and possibly higher – during the next three months to six months.”
  Verdict: Recession.
• Income: Personal income increased $24.5 billion, or 0.2%, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $25.7 billion, or 0.2%, in September. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $33.6 billion, or 0.3%. Excluding the rebate payments made to U.S. taxpayers under the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, DPI increased $30.3 billion, or 0.3%, in September, and increased $44.0 billion, or 0.4%, in August. Verdict: Too close to call.
• Retail Sales: October retail sales are coming in well below already-diminished expectations, and some reports have been downright depressing – including The Neiman Marcus Group Inc. -26.8%; The Gap Inc. (GPS) -16%; The Nordstrom Group (JWN) -15.7%; J.C. Penny Co. Inc. (JCP) -13%; Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) -9%;  Ltd. Brands Inc. (LTD) -9%; Target Corp. Inc. (TGT) -4.8%; and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) +2.4%. In a report last week, Moody’s Investors Service (MCO) projected that the retail sector’s woes will continue into 2009 as consumers cut back on buying apparel, footwear and accessories “in order to save money for essentials.” The credit rating firm said in a separate report that holiday spending “will prove even weaker than expected,” amid October’s financial-market swoon. Verdict: Recession.

If U.S. exports are taken out of the GDP calculations going back to January, it’s apparent that there has been very little domestic growth in the economy. And when revisions are finalized in the next few months, we’ll be looking back at the recession that we’re all but certain is upon us right now. Until the credit markets are freed up and borrowers are extended credit at reasonable rates, it’s unlikely that credit, the centerpiece of the economy, will be anything other than a major cog in the wheel.

There are some signs of a thaw, but not anytime soon. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s lowering of the Fed Funds target rate to 1.0%, and coordinated rate reductions by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, as well as other major world-wide central banks, may start to ease the stranglehold gripping the worldwide credit markets. The London interbank offered rate (Libor), a critical interest rate against which trillions of dollars of mortgages, bank loans and derivatives are priced, dropped to 2.39% last week from a high of 4.82% on Oct. 10.

The prospect of President-elect Obama’s choosing a different means of attacking the credit crisis will be closely watched and, by itself, may create an air of confidence that perceptions will change. But changed perceptions will not be enough.

The truth about our economic outlook is that it is predicated on demonstrably better transparency. If U.S. banks follow the lead of their European counterparts, which have recently been freed from fair-value, mark-to-market accounting, and which may retroactively mark assets to “internal models” back to July, then balance-sheet clarity will continue to be cloaked in darkness. Lack of confidence in the banking system will persist, especially among the banks themselves. The first order of attack needs to be the creation of a fundamental leadership position that leads to an open, transparent and accountable measure of balance sheet assets and liabilities. As long as failing banks are being propped up, this cycle of credit contraction will persist.

The outlook for the economy is inextricably tied to the price of oil. The run-up of benchmark crude this summer to the record $145 a barrel level, and its subsequent fall to half that level, has wreaked havoc throughout the economy. Similarly, the run-up in commodity prices, and their subsequent fall, also has caused a lot of damage. Together, the dramatic rise and fall in the pricde of oil and other commodities is a harbinger of greater volatility in the future.

Follow the Money

Follow the money. Capital rapidly inflated the tech-stock bubble. When that bubble burst, capital flowed into and flooded the hard-asset world of real estate. When that bubble burst fast, speculative money dove into oil and commodities. When the U.S. and world economies looked weak, those bubbles burst. The looming threat of inflation this past summer instantly gave way after the drop of oil, gold, metals and agricultural commodities. And now, deflation is seen as the looming threat on the horizon.

Which threat should we worry about?

The answer is – both. The prospect for near-term deflation seems all too real. As raw material prices fall and finished good prices fall due to a lack of purchasing power resulting from lack of credit and world-wide recessionary fears, the U.S. consumer has fundamentally changed his or her collective psychology. Is U.S. consumerism, which is responsible for 70% of GDP, in full retreat? If it is, as all measures project, then it’s likely that government stimulus efforts will overshoot their intended mark.
Just look at what the United States has done already as it battles this financial crisis. It has:

• Handed out more than $150 billion in stimulus rebate checks.
• Floated a $700 billion financial bailout rescue plan – almost $160 billion of which has already been placed.
• Bailed out American International Group Inc. (AIG), to the tune of $125 billion.
• Covered JP Morgan Chase & Co.’s bet on taking over
  The Bear Stearns Cos. – to the tune of $29 billion.
• Looked to lend struggling automakers $25 billion.
• Agreed to guarantee depositors at all banks.
• Stepped in to buy commercial paper that no one else will buy.
• Guaranteed money-market-fund investors.
• And backstopped the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).

And now we’re getting wind of another stimulus package and more help for everyone.

If, in six months to a year, the credit markets are facilitating borrowers again, the massive buildup of U.S. debt will result in a falling dollar and higher interest rates.

That spells inflation.

A massive re-inflation of the economy portends another flood of speculative money into oil and commodities. The cycles are increasingly condensed, more volatile and will be increasingly more disruptive.

Welcome to the brave new world of global finance and speculation.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has ballooned from $900 billion to more than $1.8 trillion. That’s 13% of GDP. The Treasury Department has telegraphed its intention to float $550 billion of debt in the fourth quarter and estimates it will have to float another $368 billion in the first quarter of 2009. Our national debt will then be close to 49% of GDP.

If there is an easing of credit in the economy, and borrowers come to market with the pent-up demand that has not been met for the past year, the competition for funds will raise interest rates. Higher interest rates will counter any stimulus effect from government programs.

Who will buy U.S. Treasury debt if the world is less apprehensive about credit quality? Lenders will once again seek higher returns, potentially forcing the Treasury Department to increase its rates. The potential of this event may sink the dollar if investors perceive that the U.S. economy is stagnant and the world is awash in dollars. The yield curve – the spread between the Treasury’s two-year and the 10-year paper – has been steepening. A steepening yield curve, where short-term borrowing costs are low and long-term rates considerably higher, is good for banks that borrow short and lend long.

But if the perception of risk diminishes, and the perception of future inflation increases, the yield curve will invert and the threat of rising rates will cause a sell-off in the short end of the curve and a rush into longer-dated maturities. Any increase in short-term interest rates would be painful for struggling banks. An inverted yield curve would be devastating, and inevitably would lead to more bank failures.

Home on the Range …

At the core of the U.S. economy sits a desperately ailing piece of the mandala – the U.S. housing market. The once bright prospect of home ownership, which historically formed a beautiful economic picture, right now doesn’t exist. For most Americans, the family home constituted the bulk of their wealth. Or at least it did. And this family financial portrait will get worse before it gets better, since the real estate collapse is far from over. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), for instance, projects another 15% drop in housing prices.

I think that’s conservative. Mortgage rates are actually rising as Fannie and Freddie have to pay higher interest on their short-term notes and bonds. Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgage paper averaged 6.47% last week, up from its 52-week low of 5.36%. The 15-year fixed paper was trading at 6.18%, up from its 52-week low of 4.91% (based on Bankrate.com (RATE) rate surveys). This trend is definitely not our friend. As housing prices continue to fall, and inventories stagnate and grow in many areas, homeowners are increasingly underwater and are increasingly entertaining foreclosure as a viable economic alternative to indentured servitude.
The Hope for Homeowners Plan, which looks to lower interest rates and reduce principal on mortgages, and which makes homeowners pay a share of the appreciation on their home to their lender when they sell it, was initiated in October and was expected to garner some 400,000 takers. As of last week, according to The Wall Street Journal, there had been only 42 takers. That’s not a misprint – 42 – I even checked with The Journal.

In the real estate realm, the proverbial “other shoe” hasn’t dropped yet, but certainly is dangling – and that’s commercial real estate. As homeowners writhe in agony and stop spending, retailers will go out of business, businesses of all stripes will suffer and commercial real estate will implode. The leverage left over from just the private equity foray into commercial real estate in the acquisitive 2006-2007 period is staggering. Refinancing will be impossible. Banks are stuck with hundreds of billions of dollars of leveraged loans that they took on as bridge and mezzanine financing from the private-equity shops alone, at the time believing they would  be able to securitize those loans and sell them off to investors.

There’s no chance of that, now.

One deal in particular illustrates this entire mess.  Private equity behemoth The Blackstone Group LP (BX) took Hilton Hotels Corp. private for $26 billion. Blackstone put up $6 billion of its own money as equity and borrowed the other $20 billion from Bear Stearns, Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Deutsche Bank AG (DB), Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley (MS), Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER) and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (OTC: LEHMQ).

Based on a current analysis of the deal at the multiple of seven times projected cash flow that the market currently puts on Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (HOT) -  Hilton’s nearest rival – if Blackstone values its property comparably, it will have to mark its Hilton holdings down 50%, because it paid 13 times projected cash flow. That wipes out all of Blackstone’s equity in the deal. What’s more, the $4 billion portion of the loan that Bear Stearns took on, courtesy of JP Morgan Chase casting off Bear’s orphaned liabilities, now sits on the Fed’s balance sheet – and isn’t likely to go anywhere anytime soon.

Until the real estate cycle completes its implosion and begins to stabilize, there’s nothing that will fundamentally alter the outlook for the economy. This is Ground Zero. President-elect Obama must resist creating only a political solution to the overwhelming economic problem of declining house prices and declining real estate prices in general. Any attempt to put a band aid on this economic plague will only delay the day of reckoning. I regret deeply the conclusion that the lake must be drained before we can realistically climb out of it. But there just aren’t enough ferrymen to get us all to shore.

Always a Silver Lining – My Forecast

The outlook for the economy is not rosy – and that’s an understatement. But there is a silver lining. Even in the near term, the stock market will present innumerable wealth-creation opportunities.

• First, there are plenty of shorting opportunities out there now, and more will present themselves in the future.
• Second, in due course – in perhaps 12-18 months – we will be presented with the investment opportunity of our generation. If President-elect Obama gets it right, and I believe he’s got the potential to bring us all together and get the country through this (and if you’re reading this Mr. President-elect, I’d like to put in my vote for [New York Fed President] Timothy Geithner as next U.S. treasury secretary), American companies will be able to be purchased so cheaply that fortunes will be made. The recovery will not only make us whole, it will make our people and our nation rich again.

I have absolutely no doubt that the United States will lead the world back into balance. The sea change that has arrived is the result of the conservative experiment having lost its true moorings, pushing the economy into disaster. Not that a wholesale swinging of the pendulum to the other side would be good. In fact, it would be disastrous. We have the potential to end up with a new, fair, transparent and judiciously regulated environment where capital formation can again spread its wings and the U.S. economy can fly.

There are new hands reaching into the colorful box of beads that comprise the American landscape and economy. From any human perspective, the United States is more than a microcosm of the universe; it is the center of the world as we know it. It will take time to construct the new mandala. We all need to meditate on the process to ensure that the design we embrace will ultimately be inclusive, forward-looking and – like all great art – an inspiration to all who view it.

For the U.S. Economy in the New Year, the Pain Will Precede the Promise

Editor’s Note: This is the second installment of a new series that looks at the global investing outlook for 2009.

Private equity is an asset class consisting of equity securities in operating companies that are not publicly traded.  The name “private equity”is the rechristened, kinder and more gentile label for what used to be known as leveraged buyouts, or LBOs. But make no mistake about it, while leverage may not be part of the name any more, it remains a big part of every private equity deal.

LBO firms, or “franchises”, as Henry Kravis, co-founder of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (KKR), likes to call his shop, acquire publicly traded operating companies. Then they streamline management and operations to increase profitability and hope to cash out through a merger, an outright sale of the company, or by taking the company public again through an initial public offering, or IPO.

Private equity firms are the debutante sisters of hedge funds. They raise huge pools of capital from pension funds, endowment funds, sovereign wealth funds, institutional investors and wealthy entrepreneurs. But while hedge funds buy and sell the stocks of companies they hope to profit from, private equity shops buy whole companies.

Generally, once a target is identified, an offer is made to buy a majority, or all of the stock of the company. The trick of the deal is to pay for the target by using as little equity capital as possible, and raising the remainder by actually having the target company borrow the required funds. Except for the private equity firm’s initial equity investment, the target company is essentially buying itself.

And if that isn’t enough of a trick, very often when the target is privatized, their new masters have the company borrow even more money so they can then pay themselves a dividend as a bonus for the good job they did in leveraging the company to the hilt so they can streamline it.

The leveraged buyout business has been around for a long time and it has worked very well for investors and the private investment bankers who make an extravagant living with other people’s money. In fact, the business was so successful it eventually led to its now very problematic fork in the road. The problem facing private equity is that their leveraged deals were at one time in such great demand that it became too easy to borrow too much money.

The result was that they chased too many deals, paid too much for targets, paid themselves too many dividends and fees, and now their portfolio companies are straining and collapsing under the weight of too much debt.

Act I: The Two Big Mistakes that Made Leveraging Possible

There are two elements that made massive borrowing possible.

The first was a ready supply of capital courtesy of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s easy money policy and low interest rates. The second was the ability of banks that lend money to acquired companies to pool those loans into securities called  collateralized loan obligations, or CLOs, and sell them off to investors. Banks and investors refer to this asset class as “leveraged loans.”

Since banks were able to sell off their leverage loans to investors they had plenty of recycled money to lend out again and again. Competition to lend out all that money put borrowers in an advantageous position, which they exploited.

Banks and non-bank lenders attach covenants to the loans they make. Typically, covenants dictate to borrowers what specific balance sheet requirements must be met and include debt-to-cash flow leverage ratios, limitations on the total amount of debt a company can carry, minimum equity provisions and other dictates that serve to secure collateral that is relied upon by lenders.

But, banks were so flush with money and so eager to lend that privately acquired companies, driven by their new private equity masters, proposed that the money they borrowed should not be encumbered by the protective covenants lenders are used to demanding. Hence the birth of “covenant-lite” loans.

Covenant-lite loans included insane “reverse covenants” that benefited the borrowers not the lenders.

Among other things, some borrowers demanded and got rights to:

• Increase debt-to-EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, and Amortization) levels to 10:1.
• Freely substitute collateral.
• Have collateral “released” outright.
• Issue unsecured debt equal to the total amount of existing debt (if they hedged or effected swaps.
• Employ PIK (payment-in-kind) options, where instead of paying interest in cash they could substitute more debt.
• Employ PIK toggles, sometimes called “extendibles.”

PIK toggles (think of a toggle switch which is used to turn something on or off) let the borrower can roll interest payments into principal and extend the maturity, instead of making twice yearly cash payments. If that sounds like an option ARM mortgage, where borrowers can choose whether to pay the interest due, some part of it, or none of it, and roll unpaid interest into principal, it’s because it is the exact same borrower covenant.

It’s like déjà vu all over again.

Act II: With No Leverage Private Equity Deals Fall Apart

Junk, junk and more junk. When the music stopped and the credit crisis began last August, money and credit evaporated. Only then did it bother leveraged loan investors that the private equity guys were leveraging their private companies to pay themselves huge dividends – enough in many cases to repay the entire initial cash equity investment used to underpin the leveraged buyout of their targets. And only then did they realize that all the debt heaped onto these companies was going to drag many of them into bankruptcy.

At that point, investors simply stopped buying leveraged loans. And the net result is that banks may be sitting on over $150 billion of junk leveraged loans that they can’t place. They are taking hits to their balance sheets as they have to mark down these loans which were securitized and subject to mark-to-market accounting. And they are terrified that the recession will drive more of these leveraged companies into bankruptcy.

Thomson Reuters recently reported that 40 private equity companies have sought bankruptcy this year. According to Standard & Poor’s, of 86 S&P rated companies that defaulted this year, 53 of them were private equity related transactions. Linens ‘n Things which was taken private by Apollo Group Inc. went bankrupt. Sharper Image, Wickes Furniture and catalogue company Lillian Vernon, were all taken private by Sun Capital Partners Inc., all of them are bankrupt. Mervyn’s which was taken private by Sun Capital and Cerberus Capital Management LP. is bankrupt.

Also in the clutches of the three-headed-dog from Hades, Cerberus, is Chrysler LLC; Chrysler Financial, GMAC LLC (General Motors Acceptance Corporation) (GMA) – 51% owned by Cerberus – and Residential Capital LLC, a GMAC company. By most accounting standards, all of these companies are, if not already, close to insolvent.

GateHouse Media Inc. (OTC: GHS), 40% owned by Fortress Investment Group LLC (FIG), is at risk of debt default and may likely be headed for bankruptcy. Former Lazard Ltd. (LAZ) deputy chairman and  media honcho Steve Rattner’s Quadrangle Capital Partners may lose control of American Media Inc., publisher of The National Enquirer and Star magazine, as he battles with bondholders and may also lose portfolio company Alpha Media Group Inc., publisher of Maxim magazine. These few examples of failures are just the tip of the iceberg.

Then, of course, there’s the pure genius of PE firms coming to the rescue of troubled banks. But, TPG Capital (formerly Texas Pacific Group) doesn’t look so genius with its $7 billion investment in Washington Mutual Inc. (OTC: WAMUQ) which was wiped out in a matter of five months.

It’s understandable that bankrupt target companies are suing. Mervyn’s, for example, filed a 57 page suit against its lead dog master Cerberus, alleging fraud among other charges. But what is not as easily understandable is that some other lawsuits have the potential to turn the game viciously against the private equity firms and all the major bank lenders. I’m not talking about the deals that got done; I’m talking about the deals that didn’t get done because private equity firms walked away or otherwise tried to dissolve pending deals.

Apollo Management asked a Delaware Court of Chancery to kill a transaction it had entered into to have one of its portfolio companies, Hexion Specialty Chemicals Inc., buy NYSE listed Huntsman Corp.(HUN) for $6.5 billion. Huntsman sued and won. The judge issued a ruling that Hexion “knowingly and intentionally” breached parts of the merger agreement and ordered the company to complete the deal. Not only is Apollo being forced to go through with the deal, the ruling allows Huntsman to seek damages from Apollo. Apollo is now suing the banks it had lined up to provide debt financing for the deal.

There are hundreds of billions of dollars of abandoned deals that may now be re-visited in courts around the country. The implication for private equity firms and banks is potentially staggering.

Here are a few of the larger failed deals that resulted from a lack of debt investor interest:

• Cerberus’ failed  deal for United Rentals Inc. (URI).
• The Blackstone Group LP’s (BX) failed deal for Alliance Data Systems Corp. (ADS).
• J.C. Flowers’ failed deal for SLM Corp. (SLM), also known as Sallie Mae.
• And Appaloosa Management in conjunction with Harbinger Capital Partners, Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), and UBS Securities LLC’s failed financing of Delphi Corp. (OTC: DPHIQ) to take it out of bankruptcy, for which they are being sued for fraud and conspiracy to “derail” the bankruptcy plan; a serious situation because interfering with a bankruptcy is a federal crime.

The amount of leverage involved in private equity deals is a problem if banks aren’t eager, or able, to supply needed loans. But that alone isn’t scary. What is scary is the effort private equity firms are making to actually get into the banking business themselves.

Act III: Private Equity Seeks to Corrupt Banking System

There’s a lot of pressure on banks to raise capital and there’s a lot of pressure being exerted by the private equity guys to lean on the Fed and U.S. Treasury to bend the rules to let them play in that sandbox. Pushing hard from the private equity camp are Randall Quarles, Managing Director of Carlyle Group Ltd. and a former senior Treasury official and none other than the former Treasury Secretary himself, Chairman of Cerberus Capital Management, John Snow.

What the private equity guys want is the ability to buy into banks and control them. If they get their hands on the low cost deposit-based capital at commercial banks, they’ll be unstoppable. How about having the piggy-bank, backed by taxpayers to leverage at will?

The prospect is frightening.

Right now there’s a limitation imposed on investors in Federal Deposit Insurance Company insured commercial banks. Once an investment exceeds 9.9% there must be an agreement with regulators to not “control or influence” management. If an investment exceeds 24.9% the investing entity must register as a Bank Holding Company, and subject itself to all necessary transparencies called for by regulators and the Fed. In addition, the holding company is forced to serve as a “source of strength”, meaning its capital will be called upon to support its bank.

Private equity guys do not want any part of either of those restrictions. They don’t want their business looked through nor do they want their capital encumbered. The private equity firms are sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars of fresh money raised recently. While it may seem reasonable and expedient to allow private equity capital to be infused into ailing banks, any compromise of existing regulations would result in the creation of the mother of all moral hazard enablers.

There’s no doubt that if the recession is as deep and as long as feared,, the continuing failure and bankruptcy of leveraged private equity portfolio companies will result in far greater unemployment, and in and of itself, has the potential to deepen the recession on an inordinate scale.

There’s too much greed and far too much power in the form of private equity firms. Their greed has encumbered American banks with significant CLO and leveraged loan exposure and encumbered American companies with too much debt. Now, they threaten to undermine sound banking (wait a minute, that’s already been done by the banks themselves) by investing capital into them in order to control them.

Until concrete underpinnings replace the glue and duct tape that’s holding together the banking system, and until leverage is wrung out of companies, investment vehicles and households, banks and private equity firms will both be on a slippery slope.

Source: Overly Leveraged Private Equity Deals Add to Unemployment and Deepen Recession

It’s this focus on developing jobs and infrastructure, or “new material product” – absent in any similarly focused U.S. stimulus so far – that will keep China’s economy on the fast track economically, while also helping boost the Red Dragon’s ailing stock market.

China’s governmental policies famously (or infamously) favor specific state-sponsored companies – especially the infrastructure companies Beijing deems integral to the nation’s physical renaissance. And a large portion of the stimulus money is expected to go right into the coffers of these companies.

Stocks have responded accordingly, advancing an additional 11% last week. The Shanghai index extended those gains yesterday (Monday), climbing 3.6%, or 72.11 points, to close at 2090.77, as investors held out hope that additional stimulus plans would be unveiled following another high-level government meeting in China this week, The Associated Press reported.

Further fueling investor ardor was Beijing’s declaration that it would not be investing in troubled Western financial firms any time in the near future.

China’s $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corp. (CIC), has lost roughly $6 billion of the $8 billion invested in Morgan Stanley (MS) and The Blackstone Group LP (BX) last year. Lou Jiwei, the company’s chairman, last week rejected the notion of putting any more of the government’s money into banks outside of its homeland. And he did so citing an overwhelming fear.

“I don’t dare to invest in financial institutions now,” Lou said last week at a conference in Hong Kong, Bloomberg News reported. “The policies of the developed nations on these institutions are not clear. Until they are clear, I don’t dare to invest in them. What if they go bust? I will lose everything.”

China has a long history of doing things on its own terms, says Keith Fitz-Gerald, Money Morning’s investment director and editor of The New China Trader. But before you label China’s back-patting and trash talk as propaganda, step back and consider which of the two you’d rather invest in: A disheveled U.S. market, or infrastructure development in China, the fastest-growing economy on the planet?

Investors have chosen the latter.

“In such uproar, it’s not clear how much is bottom fishing versus bottom building,” Fitz-Gerald said of the Shanghai index’s recent run up. “However, the fact that many Chinese companies have superb numbers is undeniable.”

Following China’s State Investment Cycle

Unlike in the United States, and many other Western economies, consumerism isn’t the main engine of China’s economy.

Rather, it’s the government – a running tally Fitz-Gerald has labeled as “China’s state investment cycle.”

About 70% of China’s economy is driven by state investments, with consumers filling in the other 30%. For the United States, those ratios are reversed, Fitz-Gerald says.

The recent $585 billion stimulus plan is just one of several gigantic investments the Chinese government has made (See chart: New Material Product). Other recent examples include its litany of Olympics investments, such as stadiums and arenas, hotels, restaurants, roads, tourist attractions and more.

There are three things to consider here.

First, China is in the midst of one of its largest state investment cycles ever – generating streams of profit never before seen.

Second, when China spends big money, it feeds the companies big enough and capable enough to handle the job. It will be those companies on Beijing’s short list that rise to the surface in the next few months, Fitz-Gerald said.

And third, despite consumers driving only 30% of its economy, China has the largest middle class in the world at 300 million people. What’s staggering about this is that they are only starting to spend their growing wealth. So when these state investments give consumers more income to spend, the only problem the government will have is keeping economic growth from getting out of control.

‘Aimed at Growth …Adding to GDP’

But before getting too far ahead of the current reality here, let’s return to the Shanghai index’s rally. Much of it has been driven by clear signals that state investments will continue.

As of now, the index is nearly 67% off its October 2007 high. And that proves two things:

• First, China’s biggest companies have been severely affected by the global economic crisis.
• And second, they remain some of the cheapest stocks in the world.

The bottom line is this: The U.S. economy – as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) – will decline by 5.0% in the current quarter, followed by declines of 3.0% in the first quarter of 2009 and 1.0% in the second quarter, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) predicts.

On the other hand, analysts predict China’s GDP will grow anywhere from 5.0% to 10.0%, easily making it the world’s fastest-growing economy, no matter where it lands in that range.

Fitz-Gerald believes the direction of China’s GDP is evident in the direction its government thinks, at least economically. And if there’s one thing that pares down each country’s economic thinking, it’s a look at each their recent economic stimulus packages.

“The U.S. government is running around rewarding bad behavior,” Fitz-Gerald said. “China’s package is aimed at growth, creating jobs and adding to its GDP.”

Source: China Stocks Advancing as Beijing Boosts Investments