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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; Canada oil sands</title>
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		<title>Update on Canada Oil Sands, Part I</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/update-on-canada-oil-sands-part-i/20101</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/update-on-canada-oil-sands-part-i/20101#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2009 19:26:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Byron King</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Oil Investment & Alternative Energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[American Petroleum Institute]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[American Petroleum Institute Api]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bitumen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Byron King]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canada oil sands]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ConocoPhillips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[COP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[crude oil production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Day In August]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Editorial Freedom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fort McMurray]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gooey Stuff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hand Lotion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[heavy oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Light Sweet Crude Oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Northern Alberta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Patch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Sands Of Alberta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Seeps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Open Pit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[peak oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pleistocene Glaciers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rock Formations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sweet Crude Oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Syncrude Canada Ltd.]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Recently, I had the unique opportunity to tour two different oil sands operations near Fort McMurray, in northern Alberta. I saw a massive open-pit oil sands mine, and the associated reclamation effort, operated by Syncrude Canada Ltd. I also visited an in situ oil sands recovery project called Surmont, operated by ConocoPhillips (NYSE:<a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=ConocoPhillips">COP</a>).</p>
<p>The trip was sponsored by the American Petroleum Institute (API), which paid for the airfare and accommodations. Managers at both Syncrude and ConocoPhillips granted me access to any parts of their operations I wanted to see (within allowances for safety). And everyone answered any and all questions I asked.</p>
<p>Post-trip, I have complete editorial freedom to write about what I saw and learned. And I learned a lot. So&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Recently, I had the unique opportunity to tour two different oil sands operations near Fort McMurray, in northern Alberta. I saw a massive open-pit oil sands mine, and the associated reclamation effort, operated by Syncrude Canada Ltd. I also visited an in situ oil sands recovery project called Surmont, operated by ConocoPhillips (NYSE:<a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=ConocoPhillips">COP</a>).<span id="more-20101"></span></p>
<p>The trip was sponsored by the American Petroleum Institute (API), which paid for the airfare and accommodations. Managers at both Syncrude and ConocoPhillips granted me access to any parts of their operations I wanted to see (within allowances for safety). And everyone answered any and all questions I asked.</p>
<p>Post-trip, I have complete editorial freedom to write about what I saw and learned. And I learned a lot. So this is Part I of a two-part series. Watch for Part II.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>The Past and Future of Oil and Oil Sands</strong></p>
<p>The first thing that struck me about visiting the oil sands of Alberta was how much geological and social similarity there is to the oil patch of Pennsylvania.</p>
<p>Geologic similarity? Yes, because the reason that the hydrocarbons are so near the surface in both areas — Pennsylvania and Alberta — is that the Pleistocene glaciers scraped off much of the overlying rock. When the glaciers retreated about 10,000 years ago, they left hydrocarbon-bearing rock formations exposed near the surface, or buried not too deep. This led to oil seeps, which led to people being curious about the black, gooey stuff.</p>
<p>To be sure, the hydrocarbon resource is quite different between the two places. That is, in Pennsylvania, you have light, sweet crude oil that flows easily and is soft and smooth to the touch. Indeed, Pennsylvania crude feels like hand lotion. (It’s the origin of Vaseline, for example. And some people use it as the basis for a shampoo.)</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/files/2009/08/082409whiskey1.png"><img src="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/files/2009/08/082409whiskey1.png" alt="" width="120" height="251" /></a></p>
<p>While in Alberta, the “bitumen” from the oil sands is as thick as cold molasses, and very sticky. It’s got some sulfur in it as well.</p>
<p>On a warm day in August, oil sands have the consistency of really stiff, dry oatmeal. Bitumen is a far cry from hand lotion.</p>
<p>And as for social similarities? Well, the Indians of old used to skim the oil from streams near Titusville, Pa. So did people of the “First Nations” of Alberta, who used to recover the tarry bitumen from the rocks along the Athabaska River of northern Alberta. Thus both oil and oil sands have been around for a long, long time.</p>
<p>Early white explorers in both Pennsylvania and Alberta noted the oil seeps. They wrote in journals and logs that eventually somebody could do something with the substance.</p>
<p>Eventually, both Pennsylvania and Alberta had their oil booms. In fact, we’re soon coming up on the 150th anniversary of Col. Drake’s oil discovery at Titusville, Pa, on Aug. 27, 1859. Pennsylvania’s oil boom is colorful history at this point (although Marcellus Shale development will soon change that).</p>
<p>Whereas Alberta is still in the midst of its oil sands boom. It’s a boom that’s going to last for quite some time, I believe.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>“Easy” Oil Versus Heavy Oil and Bitumen</strong></p>
<p>There’s a reason Col. Drake started an oil boom in Pennsylvania more than a century before Alberta enjoyed the same thing. Col. Drake found some of that so-called “easy” oil. No, it’s not easy to find. It’s that Col. Drake’s oil flows easily from a well.</p>
<p>That is, for all the oil that mankind has pumped out of the ground in the past 15 decades, almost all of it has been the light, sweet stuff that flows easily. Generally, when people looked for oil they bypassed the heavy oil and bitumen. Until lately, of course.</p>
<p>When we think about the concept of “Peak Oil” today, we need to keep in mind what we’re talking about. The curves show oil output peaking in so many parts of the world. This phenomenon is quite real, as long as you understand that it’s the “old fashioned” kind of oil deposit that Col. Drake was drilling. The light, sweet, easy-flowing oil is getting harder and harder to find, certainly in significant quantity.</p>
<p>But there are a lot of other hydrocarbon molecules out there. Most of those molecules are not light, sweet crude oil. Indeed, most of the hydrocarbon molecules that the world will use in the future will be “heavy,” with lots of carbon atoms and not so many hydrogen atoms.</p>
<p>Here’s a graph from oil services giant Schlumberger that estimates the world’s heavy oil and bitumen resources. Canada’s 400 billion cubic meters of bitumen translates into something like 1.4 trillion barrels of oil equivalent. How much is that? Well, it’s about SEVEN times the total oil reserves of Saudi Arabia.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/files/2009/08/082409whiskey2-300x208.png"><img src="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/files/2009/08/082409whiskey2-300x208.png" alt="" width="300" height="208" /></a></p>
<p>It just so happens that most of that Canadian bitumen is located in Alberta (with some is in Saskatchewan). And Fort McMurray, about 250 miles north of Edmonton, is the heart of the development process.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Oil Sands — Surface Mining</strong></p>
<p>Large-scale oil sands development began in the 1970s. It took gigantic levels of capital investment, like tens of billions of dollars. That’s not pocket change. So a group of lease-owners got together and pooled their capital to form privately held Syncrude Canada, a joint venture. First mining started in 1978.</p>
<p>The way Syncrude operates, it’s not really “mining.” It’s landscape architecture. Under Alberta law, Syncrude could not turn over its first shovel of rock without a master plan for remediation and restoration at the end of the cycle. It’s quite a farsighted model for long-range resource development.</p>
<p>Thus for much of the 1970s, Syncrude performed baseline environmental studies and data gathering. It started digging in 1978. At first, the pit looked like a moonscape of open-pit mining. See the photo below. It looks like a mess, right? Well, there’s more to the story.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/files/2009/08/082409whiskey3-300x225.png"><img src="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/files/2009/08/082409whiskey3-300x225.png" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a></p>
<p>The mining process is fairly straightforward. Big shovels (really big) scoop large volumes (really large) of oil-laden sand (API number 8, the “bitumen”) into gigantic loaders (and I mean gigantic.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/files/2009/08/082409whiskey4-300x198.png"><img src="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/files/2009/08/082409whiskey4-300x198.png" alt="" width="300" height="198" /></a></p>
<p>The loaders haul the rock to a crusher. The crushed rock goes to a washing bin, kind of like your washing machine at home except it’s the size of a high-rise office building. The Syncrude operation washes the bitumen off the sand using naphtha. Then it separates the bitumen, recovers the naphtha for reuse and takes the clean sand (and it’s clean) and replaces it in a previously mined pit.</p>
<p>The process uses a lot of water, but not as much as the horror stories you might hear about “draining the rivers” of northern Canada. Each barrel of water is recycled about 18 times.</p>
<p>The process uses a large amount of natural gas, but not as much as you may have heard (like “all the natural gas of northern Canada”). Pretty much everything about the operation is built with cogeneration in mind, so the company continuously recovers the heat at each stage. That natural gas goes a long way, from what I saw.</p>
<p>If it takes, say, five years to dig a pit, and then it may take five or more years to fill it back up with sand during the restoration process. Syncrude’s goal is to handle the rock as little as possible.</p>
<p>Eventually, Syncrude returns the land to original grade, although the company has some artistic license with the contours. It covers the land with the original topsoil, which has been in cold storage (northern Alberta… it’s cold up here for 10 months of the year). Then it replants trees, and that’s saying something, because the growing season is under two months. It takes 80 years for your basic spruce tree to reach maturity.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/files/2009/08/082409whiskey5-300x203.png"><img src="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/files/2009/08/082409whiskey5-300x203.png" alt="" width="300" height="203" /></a></p>
<p>There’s even a new water table, despite the disturbance of the land.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Where Things Now Stand</strong></p>
<p>So at this stage, after 30 years or so of mining (with about 80 years to go, at current rates of extraction), Syncrude has come to a point of delivering 350,000 barrels of synthetic crude oil per day. It takes the 8-API bitumen and upgrades it to oil that’s competitive with West Texas Light. Then it delivers it to the JV members, for whatever use the owners want to make of it.</p>
<p>Along the way, the Syncrude process removes the sulfur, so it’s sulfur free (refiners like that). In fact, there’s a mass of sulfur up at Syncrude that’s about the size of the step pyramid at Saqqara, Egypt. And along the way, Syncrude sells the sulfur to the chemical industry.</p>
<p>The former Syncrude mine that I visited is about 3.5 miles square, and formerly about 200 feet deep. Now it’s restored to grade, with trees growing and a herd of 300 wood bison grazing.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/files/2009/08/082409whiskey6-300x217.png" alt="" width="300" height="217" /></p>
<p>For the cynics out there, I’d say that it’s not some environmental Potemkin village, because you can’t fake a replanted forest of 25-year-old trees. You can’t fake a 300-bison herd. Not on a former mine site 3.5 miles square.</p>
<p>Sure, there are still issues about land disturbance, settling ponds, water usage, gas usage and myriad of other things that come up when you’re spending billions of dollars on a major mining effort. But Syncrude has built its business model around dealing with the “other” issues, and not just moving oil sands and recovering oil products. Don’t underestimate the ability of the Alberta government to regulate its energy producers. This is a long way from Appalachia.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, we’re talking about literally billions of barrels of bitumen (or oil equivalent) that the process makes available to the North American marketplace. And if the U.S. wants to get onto its environmental high horse about the source of the hydrocarbons from the oil sands — and tax or ban their importation — there are other buyers in the world. Like the Chinese, who have racked up many frequent flyer miles on their treks to Fort McMurray.</p>
<p>That’s all for now. In Part II, I’ll discuss the in situ process that I saw at the ConocoPhillips Surmont site.</p>
<p>Until we meet again,<br />
Byron King</p>
<p><a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/update-on-canada-oil-sands-part-i/"><br />
</a></p>
<p><a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/update-on-canada-oil-sands-part-i/">Source: Update on Canada Oil Sands, Part I</a></p>
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		<title>Currencies Lose Their Edge</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/currencies-lose-their-edge/8189</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/currencies-lose-their-edge/8189#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Nov 2008 13:16:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Butler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AIG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canada oil sands]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Central Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China bailout]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ECB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fannie Mae]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[renminbi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Silver Futures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yen Carry Trade]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>The China good feeling dissipates&#8230;  Currencies lose their edge&#8230;  Fannie Mae needs more!  Silver manipulation?                                  And Now&#8230; Today&#8217;s Pfennig!OK&#8230; Well&#8230; All that build up yesterday about how the markets liked the sound of the Chinese announcement to inject $586 Billion worth of renminbi into their economy, dissipated early on in the NY market yesterday. As I left you the euro had climbed above 1.29 again, but ended the day around 1.2740&#8230; This is tied directly to the Trading Theme, and that&#8217;s all I have to say about that&#8230; Have a great day, and I&#8217;ll talk to you tomorrow&#8230;</p>
<p>HA! Had you there for a minute! The dollar rallied once again, when the deep, dark, dangerous clouds returned, and the risk takers&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span id="Label1">The China good feeling dissipates&#8230;  Currencies lose their edge&#8230;  Fannie Mae needs more!  Silver manipulation?                                  And Now&#8230; Today&#8217;s Pfennig!</span><span id="more-8189"></span><span id="Label1">OK&#8230; Well&#8230; All that build up yesterday about how the markets liked the sound of the Chinese announcement to inject $586 Billion worth of renminbi into their economy, dissipated early on in the NY market yesterday. As I left you the euro had climbed above 1.29 again, but ended the day around 1.2740&#8230; This is tied directly to the Trading Theme, and that&#8217;s all I have to say about that&#8230; Have a great day, and I&#8217;ll talk to you tomorrow&#8230;</p>
<p>HA! Had you there for a minute! The dollar rallied once again, when the deep, dark, dangerous clouds returned, and the risk takers that had come out of the woodwork on Friday, disappeared, which left the currencies hung out on the line. Gold rallied $10, which is really counter-intuitive to the risk takers disappearing and the dollar rallying&#8230; But it did, and I&#8217;m not here to argue about that!</p>
<p>As I said yesterday, the data cupboard was bare with no data to report Monday&#8230; With today being a holiday, we won&#8217;t get our next glimpse of the awful fundamentals data until Wednesday. In the overseas version of a data cupboard, the German Investor Confidence, as measured by the think tank, ZEW, surprised on the good side, with the index rising in October&#8230; This index had been on the slippery slope for the past few months. The news is that the index rose because the European Central Bank (ECB) stepped to the plate a couple of weekends ago, and made good contact with the financial meltdown in Europe.</p>
<p>Again&#8230; Let me say this loud and clear, folks&#8230; There&#8217;s a HUGE difference in Central Banks that provide liquidity&#8230; One does so from a position of strength like the ECB and China&#8230; and the other does so from a position of weakness (the Fed)&#8230;</p>
<p>But the good report isn&#8217;t doing anything to help the euro this morning, as the overnight stock markets didn&#8217;t fare too well, which has led to U.S. index futures being off&#8230; And all that means a rotten trading day, thus keeping the risk takers on the sidelines, and the dollar being the king of the hill&#8230;</p>
<p>And&#8230; All this means the Japanese yen is back on the rally tracks! I see this morning where BNP Paribas says that their Elliott Wave chartists believe yen will trade to 96.85 in the next week&#8230; Of course you know me folks&#8230; Trends are what move currencies&#8230; Charts merely tell you or give you an excuse as to why a currency moved in that trend. In this case&#8230; We all know that while the deleveraging is going on during the credit market squeeze, that dollars and yen are the only two currencies to gain (Chinese renminbi goes back and forth)&#8230;</p>
<p>Back here in the Good Old U.S.A&#8230;. The accountants over at Fannie Mae announced that the $100 Billion pledge to them &#8220;may not be enough&#8221;&#8230; This announcement came after Fannie posted a record $29 Billion loss and confronting more difficulty in issuing and refinancing debt. I guess the folks at Fannie thought, Shoot Rudy, if AIG can go back for second helpings of bailout funds, then we can too! I think we should all get used to this, as I said when all the original plans to bail out these firms were announced&#8230; These bailout funds are going to be like cocaine to these needing bailouts, and they are going to need more and more&#8230;</p>
<p>And the Wall Street Journal reported this last night that&#8230; &#8220;The Federal Reserve said Monday it will allow American Express to become a bank-holding company, saying &#8220;unusual and exigent circumstances affecting financial markets&#8221; justified a fast approval of the company&#8217;s application. The surprise move would give American Express access to new low-cost financing from the Federal Reserve.&#8221;</p>
<p>Before it&#8217;s all said and done, we&#8217;ll all be one big happy family, no make that dysfunctional family of &#8220;bankers&#8221;&#8230; Shoot, they may as well bring the automakers into the fold too, they need some of the low-cost financing from the Fed too! I could really go off on a tangent here&#8230; But, I&#8217;ll keep it on a even keel, as it&#8217;s not like there&#8217;s anything I can do about all this, so why get to upset with all these dolts!</p>
<p>So&#8230; The bad fundamentals, no make that awful fundamentals, continue to mount for the U.S. to deal with&#8230; But before we can deal with the awful fundamentals, we have to deal with the credit markets squeeze&#8230; No ifs, ands or buts&#8230; If we can get the lending going again, and I&#8217;m not talking about to individuals, I&#8217;m talking about between banks, and with Corporations, then the focus will return to the fundamentals&#8230; That&#8217;s my story and I&#8217;m sticking to it!</p>
<p>You know&#8230; One thing that I talked about last summer, and was even quoted in the Wall Street Journal talking about, was the fact that with the low interest rates in the U.S. the dollar had replaced the Swiss franc as a funding currency in the carry trade&#8230; And since then, the borrowing rates in the U.S. have gone even lower&#8230; But Carry Trades are not too popular at the moment, with risk taking on the sidelines&#8230; So the affect on the dollar at this point is mute. But, this explanation helps with the &#8220;reason the dollar is rallying&#8221;&#8230; I&#8217;ve explained more times than I care to that with Carry Trades unwinding, the &#8220;funding currency&#8221; which was sold short, gets bought to cover the short position, and so, just like Japanese yen, the dollar rallies&#8230;</p>
<p>And while I&#8217;m on the weird things going on in the U.S. I thought I would give you a snippet of a letter that Ted Butler (no relation, that I&#8217;m aware of) sent out regarding what he feels is manipulation of Silver. Here&#8217;s the other &#8220;Mr. Butler&#8221;&#8230;</p>
<p>&#8220;This week, I received a copy of a letter, dated October 8, sent from the CFTC to a California Congressman, Gary G. Miller. It discussed allegations of a silver market manipulation because of the data in the monthly Bank Participation Report. The data in that report for August showed that one or two U.S. banks held a massive short position in COMEX silver futures of 33,805 contracts, or more than 169 million ounces. This is equal to 25% of annual world mine production, and was up more than five-fold from the prior month’s report. After this position was established, silver prices fell more than 50%, in spite of a widespread shortage in retail forms of investment silver.&#8221;</p>
<p>So, there you go! Ted Butler believes he has the proof of manipulation in Silver, but what&#8217;s the Gov&#8217;t going to do about it&#8230; Ahhh&#8230; As one of my all time faves, Edwin Starr, sings&#8230; Nothing, absolutely nothing, say it again!</p>
<p>There was an article posted on CNBC&#8217;s website yesterday that listed Companies here in the U.S. that are announcing layoffs&#8230; This was not a pretty scene folks&#8230; But if you want to check it out, click here&#8230; http://www.cnbc.com/id/27645929</p>
<p>Yesterday, I told you the &#8220;news of the weird&#8221; with the announcement by the Fed that the guy who was responsible for risk management at Bear Stearns, the now defunct Bear Stearns I might add, was hired to head the group that overseas the purchase of the toxic waste bonds by the Fed&#8230; This to me is akin to putting the fox in control of the hen house! Any way&#8230; A long time reader sent me a note regarding this announcement&#8230; &#8220;I read somewhere about this appointment in several places last week on the web. One &#8220;source&#8221; actually suggested perhaps he was hired just to keep his mouth shut as who would better know how really toxic the traded paper is and what really lies out there?&#8221;</p>
<p>OK&#8230; You know me, I&#8217;m not one to put speculation in the Pfennig, especially when it appears on a website&#8230; But, this really struck a chord with me (probably cmaj7 my fave chord!)&#8230; And it appeals to my conspiracy theory blood&#8230; Let&#8217;s just hope it&#8217;s not even close to the truth!</p>
<p>I hear that the major oil companies that are attempting to get Oil out of the oil-sands in Canada, have decided to halt the spending there. For those of you not familiar with these oil-sands in Canada&#8230; These are the world&#8217;s biggest energy reserves outside Saudi Arabia. Getting the oil out of the ground here is a real problem and costly, and with the price of Oil dropping since July, the oil companies drilling here, have decided to cut back on the costs&#8230; I don&#8217;t understand this decision, as this IS the time to drill!</p>
<p>Currencies today 11/11/08: A$ .6685, kiwi .5830, C$ .8385, euro 1.2740, sterling 1.5575, Swiss .85, ISK 182, rand 10.1825, krone 6.90, SEK 7.875, forint 210.50, zloty 2.2050, koruna 19.89, yen 97.75, baht 34.94, sing 1.4980, HKD 7.75, INR 48.10, China 6.8250, pesos 12.88, BRL 2.2050, dollar index 86.02, Oil $60.30, Silver $9.97, and Gold&#8230; $739.15<br />
</span></p>
<p><span id="Label1">Well, I would just like to say Thank You to anyone that reads this letter that is or was in the service for this country&#8230; And Thank You to those that are no longer with us to read the Pfennig. Sure hope your Tuesday is Terrific&#8230; </span></p>
<p><a href="http://www.dailypfennig.com/currentIssue.aspx?date=11/11/2008">Source: Veteran&#8217;s Day </a></p>
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