With oil finally trading back above the $50-a-barrel level, it’s time to recognize that crude prices are probably not going to remain low for very long, and may end up fluctuating in the $50-$80 range – regardless of what happens to the prices of other commodities.

Royal Dutch Shell Chief Executive  has weighed in alongside OPEC, claiming that there is no shortage of physical oil supplies, and the crude oil prices should drop.

“As the post-Memorial Day hangover lingers, and $4 per gallon gasoline becomes a national reality, expect more and more daily energy prognostications,” says William Patalon III in Money Morning.

The number of OPEC countries has dropped to 12 from 13 after Indonesia an OPEC member since 1962, has announced it will leave the oil producers’ consortium due falling oil production. This from Bloomberg:

Indonesia, the only OPEC member in Southeast Asia, will pull out of the group as aging fields and declining production force the region’s biggest economy to boost imports.

Oil prices gained a dollar today to approach last week’s record high of $133 a barrel after Nigerian rebels blew up a pipeline belonging to Royal Dutch Shell, forcing it to cut production. This from the Financial Times:

Crude prices jumped on Monday in electronic trading as news of the attack broke, but analysts said the impact on prices spilled over into Tuesday, when exchanges on both side of the Atlantic re-opened after the long weekend.