The president was under pressure to say who would handle the issue before tomorrow, when General Motors Corp. (GM) and Chrysler LLC must give progress reports on plans to restructure as a condition of $17.4 billion in U.S. Treasury loans. The so-called car czar – an approach that had some support in the American auto industry – was viewed as a key move in the federal government’s push to revamp the U.S. auto industry. The task force puts an end to reports Obama would recruit a well-known figure from outside to serve in that role, an approach that had some support in the industry itself.

Ron Bloom, a United Steelworkers union adviser and former Lazard Ltd. (LAZ) vice president, will join the Obama administration team, Bloomberg said of the alleged appointment, which has yet to be made publicly.

“There needs to be a trail boss here,” said Andrew Gross, chairman and chief executive officer of Automotive Consulting Services LLC in Clackamas, Oregon, told Bloomberg in a telephone interview yesterday. “Typically when you have a committee set up it provides cover. Everyone’s responsible, but no one’s accountable.”

Geithner has “got his hands full” trying to rescue the banking industry, Gross said.

After Congress failed to approve a bailout for the automakers, former President George W. Bush on Dec. 19 authorized the loans, a move that effectively made the Treasury secretary the car czar, imbued with the responsibility for making sure the companies meet deadlines and authority to revoke the loans.

Under the new plan, Geithner will remain Obama’s official “designee” to oversee the restructuring, meaning he’ll have the authority to pull back the aid if the automakers fail to submit a return-to-profitability plan by the established March 31 deadline.

“It’s going to be something that’s going to require sacrifice not just from the auto workers, but also from creditors, from shareholders and the executives who run the company,” senior White House adviser David Axelrod told NBC TV’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday.

Representatives from Cabinet departments and White House offices will serve on the task force, too.

Market Matters

So what will $790 billion buy these days?  Hopefully, a few roads and bridges, about 3.5 million new jobs – and perhaps an economic recovery for the country, too. President Obama is expected to sign the legislation today (Tuesday), The Washington Post reported.

But as the stimulus package moves closer to Obama’s signature, the jury is still out on its future success. Perhaps the sign of a successful compromise exists when neither party is completely satisfied (or not at all satisfied) and points out flaws in the final package.

In this case, budget hawks and other conservatives claim that the bill is a giant spending package that will do little to revive the economy, or create any real jobs. Many bleeding hearts and other liberals were counting on a larger stimulus and believe the tax cuts and rebates will not help and, if anything, similar actions over the past few years have contributed to the current mess.

President Obama seemed pleased with the progress and praised the plan as an “endeavor of enormous scope and scale.”  Then again, his views on effective stimulus may have cost him another cabinet nominee as his willingness to cross partisan lines to find a Commerce Secretary failed over insurmountable economic and ideological differences with Sen. Judd Gregg.

News from the bailout front grew more pessimistic during the week as Treasury Secretary Geithner’s initial attempt to win over Congress, investors, economists, and the media proved no more successful than Hank Paulson’s before him.  The stock market had run up significantly in the days leading to his speech, as folks hoped to hear some specifics about how the next round of the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) (and other initialed programs like TALF) would work far better than the initial plan.  Instead, disappointed investors ran for cover when his remarks left many questions about the valuations of toxic assets and private/public partnerships unanswered.

As plenty of finger-pointing continued over the failed bailout initiative and its lack of direction, some signs of success from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Treasury Department’s moves have slowly emerged.  The once-frozen credit markets have started to thaw as corporations have borrowed almost $80 billion so far in 2009, issuing high quality bonds to take advantage of low interest rates: Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) alone sold $4 billion in debt securities to raise cash for potential merger-and-acquisition activities.

In other (optimistic) news, Intel Corp. (INTC) will be investing $7 billion in technology enhancements at its factories during these dire times.  McDonalds Corp. (MCD) showed that Big Macs are near necessities as same-store sales jumped by more than 7% last month.  Still, earnings season wound down with profits at Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies projected to plunge over 30% in the fourth quarter, the worst showing in about two decades.  In fact, it was the first-ever quarter of negative earnings, MarketWatch.com reported.

Oil plummeted below the $34-a-barrel level (at one point) as inventories climbed to an 82-week high amid lower demand for energy during the downturn.  Investors unloaded stocks following the Geithner remarks (remember the old market adage: “Buy on the rumor, sell on the News”), despite some better-than-expected economic releases.

Bonds experienced a “flight to quality,” and also rose on news that a comprehensive foreclosure-assistance plan is in the works.

Economically Speaking

First the bad news. In the latest Wall Street Journal poll of top economists, the vast majority revised (downward) their outlooks for the second half of 2009, and said that the prospects for a full-fledged recovery seem much less promising.

While most predict that we’ll see some economic growth during the last six months, the rate of such expansion is lower than earlier projections. In fact, several economists expect that economic contraction will continue to be a reality through the end of the year.

But that brings us to the good news: These economic surveys are rarely on target.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did his best Tony Robbins impersonation (the power of positive thinking), and highlighted the recent successes of certain policies.  Bernanke suggested that the commercial paper markets have benefited from the central bank’s decision to buy these short-term securities and more companies are meeting their liquidity needs.  He promoted the newfound stability among money-market funds as investors ceased the mass withdrawals that were occurring last year. Finally, he expressed relief that mortgage rates have declined dramatically and that borrowers have taken advantage of purchase and refinance opportunities (at least those borrowers with high-paying jobs and stellar credit).

While the trade deficit declined to its lowest level in almost six years, the pessimists claim that the improvement is more reflective of the recessionary times which have restricted domestic demand for the imports of oil and other foreign-made products and services.

Meanwhile, the imbalance with China climbed to an all-time high.  In retail news, sales in January surprisingly jumped by 1%, the first increase in seven months and the best showing in more than a year. While Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) took advantage of the consumers’ hearty appetites for groceries and other (discounted) necessities of life, buyers also hit the auto lots again to check out the “too-good-to-be-true” deals.  While the initial jobless claims actually fell slightly in the most recent week, the number of unemployed continuing to search for a job moved higher, an indication that the labor markets remain tight.

The foreclosure initiative will be of particular interest to many who believe the housing sector remains the key to any recovery. Investors also get the latest look at the inflation picture as both the producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) for January will be released.  While oil has continued to plunge, gas prices seemed to have stabilized as of late (unfortunately for consumers) and talks of deflation may have been put on the backburner, at least for now

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: Obama Administration Kicks the “Car Czar” to the Curb; Treasury’s Geithner to Take the Wheel

• Sources close to the matter told Bloomberg News that President-elect Barack Obama may name Steven Rattner as “car czar,” a top-level position that would oversee the conditions of which bailout money is given to U.S. auto companies, Bloomberg reported. Rattner co-founded private-equity firm Quadrangle Group LLC in 2000.

• Barclays plc is planning to cut more than 2,100 jobs from its investment banking and investment management units, sources told Reuters. About 1,300 jobs would be lost from Barclays Capital. About 500 from Barclays Wealth. And about 370 from Barclays Global Investors.

• Great Britain energy titan, BG Group plc, plans to invest between $4 billion and $5 billion to develop oil fields in Brazil through 2012. “We’re confident that these developments can be made economic at lower oil prices, but we’ll need to ensure the efficiency of the investment. Oil prices we see today are much more realistic,” Chief Executive Officer Frank Chapman told Bloomberg.

• Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer Inc. (PFE) said it plans to slash 800 research jobs, a reduction of 5% to 8% of its research workforce. Most of the cuts will come from labs in California, Connecticut and England, and are in addition to the near 10,000 jobs cut companywide since early 2007, Reuters reported.

• Crude futures halted a weeklong price slide yesterday (Tuesday), as light, sweet crude for February delivery rose 19 cents to settle at $37.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures briefly touched $36.10 a barrel, a new low for the year, earlier in the day.

• Commercial banks borrowed more while investment banks borrowed less from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s emergency lending program over the most recent week. The Fed report said commercial banks averaged daily borrowing of $87.9 billion during the week that ended last Wednesday. That was an increase from the $86.6 billion in average daily borrowing for the week that ended Dec. 31. Investment firms borrowed nearly $36 billion over the past week, USA Today reported. That was down from the average of $38.5 billion for the week that ended Dec. 31, the newspaper reported.

• U.S. companies may have to contribute $109 billion to their corporate pension plans this year to fill funding gaps caused by turmoil in the financial markets, consulting firm Watson Wyatt Worldwide Inc. (WW) said yesterday (Tuesday). Watson Wyatt expects companies also will have to contribute more than $102 billion in 2010. Both of these figures are up significantly from the $38 billion that companies were required to contribute to the plans last year.

Source: Global Investment News Roundup Wednesday, January 14th, 2009

Good day…and welcome to another week, hopefully the currency markets can continue their assault on the dollar which began a few weeks ago. The dollar index peaked back on November 21, and with the exception of a few days around the beginning of December, the greenback has consistently fallen vs. most of the major currencies. Friday was no exception, and the dollar continued to give back gains over the weekend with the Euro climbing back over $1.35 for the first time in two months.

This morning the markets are focusing on the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting and rate announcement which will come tomorrow. It is widely expected that Bernanke and his compatriots will push US interest rates close to just 0.5%, the lowest on records dating back to July 1954. From everything I’ve read over the weekend, this 50 basis point cut is pretty much a done deal, and currency traders are actually more interested in what the Fed’s statement will say about ‘alternative easing measures’. The rate announcement will come tomorrow at around 2:15 pm EST after a two day meeting. The FOMC meeting had originally been scheduled for just one day, but was extended so policy makers could study options for unusual steps to spur the economy. I guess they finally figured out that they are running out of room with the interest rate cuts!

The Feds newest weapon against the falling economy is ‘quantitative easing’, which the Bank of Japan used in the 1990’s. This non-traditional method of easing centers around pumping money back into the financial markets as quickly as possible. The Fed has already started down this path by allowing its balance sheet to more than double in size after pumping over $1 trillion into financial markets. The markets are now expecting the Fed to announce it will start purchasing private sector mortgages to drive down home loan costs. By purchasing these bonds, the Fed would narrow the spread between their yields and yields on US Treasuries, and theoretically allowing banks to offer home loans at lower rates.

But the Fed has already pumped trillions into the banks in an effort to get them to start lending, so I’m not sure having the Fed narrow mortgage spreads will get these same banks to open up their lending windows. And even if the banks lower mortgage rates, they won’t be lowering credit standards. Unemployment continues to rocket upward as more and more firms lay off workers. Do you think these banks are going to be willing to refinance someone who has just lost their job?

And what will be the long term impact of all of this ‘quantitative easing’? The Fed is mashing on the money supply accelerator, totally ignoring the inflationary results which all of this will bring down the road. Ben Bernanke is smart enough to know the risks of the path he is speeding down, but right now he is choosing to ignore the consequences in an attempt to keep the economy from falling off the abyss. Some at the Fed believe they will be able to pull all of this added liquidity back out of the markets as soon as the economy starts to recover. But this is a very difficult thing to do, as the Fed would have to start pulling liquidity and increasing rates just as the economy is starting to turn. I think it is pretty obvious the ‘experts’ have a tough time calling the turning points, as it took them almost a year to call the recession!! And the consequence of missing the timing on pulling the liquidity back out of the market is much more drastic than mistiming the entry into the recession. Hyperinflation is waiting on the other side of this short term deflationary pause, and the Fed is currently looking the other way.

This weekend, President Bush announced that he is thinking about spending some of the TARP money which was set aside to stabilize the financial system to bail out the auto industry. This announcement caused a further sell off of the dollar as it is quickly losing its status as a safe-haven currency. Chuck was busy this weekend, but still found time to send me his thoughts:

“Well… We went to cut down our tree today, then watched Alex’s basketball team get smoked! Put the tree up in a spiffy, with one of the greatest inventions of man kind, the swivel stand… And now I’m off to tell you what I’ve read about this weekend…

First though… A quote from Ronald Reagan… “The most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the government and I’m here to help”

OK, with that in mind, I wanted to discuss the bailout for the automakers, GM and Chrysler.

First of all, I know it will be tough for the autoworkers should they be laid off, especially at this time of the year. But, the problem here is the fact that the automakers have run their respective companies very badly, and now they expect the taxpayer to bail them out.

It was reported on Friday that the Gov’t is “looking into” using TARP money for the automakers bailout since the Senate voted “no” to the $14 Billion plan.

First of all… Congress said nothing about helping carmakers, or any other non-financial business, in October when it authorized the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. But yet, it is being discussed as the “funding source of funds”…

That fund was never designed to rescue manufacturing companies with long-term operational issues. It was designed to shore up confidence in the banking system in order to thaw the world’s credit markets.

Our own David Nicklaus of the St. Louis Post Dispatch has this to say, which makes a whole lot of sense to me! “The Detroit Three have been losing market share for decades, and their bloated cost structure makes it difficult for them to turn a profit even in good times. They have too much debt, too many models, too many dealers and, sad to say, too many workers.

Congress seemed to view an auto bailout as a jobs program, and TARP is nothing of the sort. In fact, the Treasury has invested in Bank of America, which is eliminating 35,000 jobs, and Citigroup, which is slashing 52,000.

The Treasury program, as it’s been used so far, at least lacks one of the worst features of the failed auto bill. Nothing in the TARP legislation allows the government to name a car czar.”

Yes, a Car Czar… Those Czars worked out well for the Russians, eh?

But the thing that really gets my blood boiling folks, is the fact that if bailout had gone through with the Car Czar, it would have been one more nail in the free markets / business coffin, just another opportunity for those that want to run the country toward the socialist side of the ledger…”

That is one of the things I love about Chuck, you don’t ever have to wonder where he stands on something!

As I started to say before I went off on my FOMC tangent, the dollar continued to give back ground vs. just about all of the major currencies over the weekend. The Euro was up over 1.2% vs. the dollar, and broke through the $1.35 handle. The only two currencies which sold off over the weekend were the South African rand and Brazilian real, which were down just slightly. In addition to the FOMC meeting and announcement, we will get the TIC flows, Empire manufacturing number, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization numbers today. Tomorrow will bring the CPI numbers along with housing starts, building permits, and ABC Consumer confidence. Wednesday will be a light data day with just the Current Account Balance reported, and Thursday will close out the data with the weekly jobs numbers along with Leading indicators.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose on speculation the FOMC will be cutting US interest rates. These two currencies will benefit from their higher rates with the US cutting rates to near zero. The currency markets have started to move back toward trading on fundamentals over the past few weeks, and interest rate differentials are one fundamental which favors the NZD and AUD. If the Fed’s statement makes it known that interest rates will remain low for a long time, the dollar would likely fall further vs. the Aussie dollar, as the RBA has signaled that it is close to the end of its rate cutting cycle. Benchmark rates are nearly 400 basis points higher in Australia and New Zealand when compared with the same rates here in the US.

In a break with the recent trading pattern, the Japanese yen rallied along with the New Zealand and Australian dollars. A former Deputy Governor of the BOJ said Japan is probably not going to lower rates further; “with the interest rate already so low, a further reduction would have only limited impact.” The central bank’s Tankan survey today showed confidence among large manufacturers fell the most in 34 years as a deepening global financial crisis crimped export demand, forcing companies to pare production and fire workers. The yen’s recent surge to a 13 year high has compounded woes for manufacturers.

Gold continued to rise over the weekend, pushing back up to an eight week high in London. The dollar’s fall has spurred investors to move back into gold as an alternative investment. News that President Bush was looking to tap the bank bailout fund to keep GM and Chrysler out of bankruptcy spurred further purchases of gold. With the tremendous growth in the US money supply, and the FOMC turning their back on inflation concerns, precious metals should continue to gain ground. Gold is traditionally one of the best hedges against rising inflation.

Currencies today 12/15/08: A$ .6635, kiwi .5523, C$ .8138, euro 1.3473, sterling 1.4969, Swiss .8534, ISK 218, rand 10.1985 krone 6.9051, SEK 7.9963, forint 197.97, zloty 2.9644, koruna 19.428, yen 90.79, baht 34.88, sing 1.4773, HKD 7.75, INR 48.0512, China 6.85, pesos 13.5138, BRL 2.387, dollar index 83.15, Oil $48.52, Silver $10.36, and Gold… $827.60

Source: Waiting on the FOMC Meeting

The bailout package bill for General Motors Corp. (GM), Ford Motor Co. (F) or Chrysler LLC was passed by House lawmakers by a vote of 231-170. Democrats said they reached agreement with the White House on the details of the plan yesterday.

“If we do nothing, we take the risk that, sometime soon, there’ll be no American automobile industry,” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., told MarketWatch.com.

The $14 billion is a long way from the $34 billion now being sought by the Big Three. And that $34 billion was well in excess of the $25 billion in loans the carmakers said they would need. Of the three companies, GM and Chrysler are in the greatest need of cash. Ford says it is seeking a long-term line of credit and doesn’t need money in the short term.

The House bill, if enacted, would do several things. It would:

• Grant the U.S. government warrants for nonvoting stock equal to 20% of the value of the loan it makes to each company.
• Create a White House-chosen “car czar,” an appointee empowered to hold the companies accountable for developing long-term viability plans. The czar would be able to require immediate repayment of the loans if the companies don’t make adequate progress by Feb. 15.
• Require GM, Ford and Chrysler to submit “final” restructuring plans by March 31.
• End such financial standard fare as dividends for shareholders and “golden parachutes” and bonuses for executives – in the interest of conserving cash.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said the bill is “tough love” for the industry but offers the Big Three “a chance to get back on track.”

The Bush Administration said yesterday that the “car czar” would have the power to revoke the loans and develop a new plan – including one that would have the Big Three seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection if the carmakers don’t make progress toward long-term viability by March 31.

“If there’s not a plan that makes these firms viable, the government gets its money back,” Joel Kaplan, deputy White House chief of staff for policy, told reporters.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., unveiled a bill similar to the House measure late yesterday. A vote in the Senate may not come until the weekend, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said yesterday. Congress has been working on this for several weeks.

Shares of GM closed at $4.60 each yesterday, down 2%. Ford shares advanced 2 cents, or 0.62%, to close at $3.25. Chrysler is privately held, with private-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management LP holding a controlling interest. Before Cerebrus bought it, Chrysler had spent years as part of Germany’s Daimler AG (DAI).

Throughout the day yesterday, House and Senate Republicans repeatedly said that a Big Three bailout wouldn’t lead to a long-term viability or competitiveness for GM, Ford and Chrysler. In fact, U.S. Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., who is the ranking GOP player on the Senate Banking Committee, vowed to block the legislation with a filibuster.

“Unless Chrysler, Ford and General Motors become lean and innovative and competitive in the marketplace, this is only delaying their funeral,” Shelby told journalists yesterday.

Of course, as MarketWatch reported, Shelby’s home state of Alabama has provided millions of dollars in subsidies to attract Japan’s Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (ADR: HMC), South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Co. (PINK: HYMLF) and the Mercedes-Benz unit of Germany’s Daimler AG, to build plants that provided 48,457 jobs in 2007. The Toyota Motor Corp. (ADR: TM) factory in Huntsville, Ala., makes motors for SUVs and pickup trucks.

The Wall Street Journal reported that a breakthrough in the negotiations between the White House and Democrats came after Democrats agreed to scrap language that would have forced the carmakers to drop lawsuits challenging tough emissions limits in California and other states.

Reid told MarketWatch that that he needs 60 votes to get the plan through the Senate. A key Democrat, Finance Committee Chairman Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mon., actually came out against the bill, since it contains a tax provision he said that he opposes. Democrats control the Senate by a narrow 50-49 majority.

Dodd said the Senate bill is “a far cry from a blank check to the industry.”

Said Dodd: “The legislation requires these companies to make painful, fundamental changes if they are going to be competitive internationally and viable in the long term.”

Source: Auto Bailout Passes House, Faces Hostile Senate

The bill clearly falls short of the $34 billion the Big Three were asking for, but should be enough to keep the automakers running through January, when the new Congress and Obama administration take the wheel.

As previously reported in Money Morning, there will be limits on executive pay, prohibitions for golden parachutes and requirements that the automakers get rid of their corporate aircraft and not pay dividends while loans are outstanding. The bill also provides a “car czar,” or presidential appointee, to oversee keep tabs on the companies’ restructuring efforts.

Of course, the bill is still awaiting congressional approval and there is cause to believe it may stall in the Senate.

Sen. Richard Shelby, R-AL, was a member of the panel that twice grilled Big Three CEOs and one of the bailout’s most vocal critics. Yesterday (Wednesday), Shelby threatened to filibuster the deal if it reaches the Senate.

It’s interesting to note that Shelby’s home state of Alabama, has built three foreign car assembly plants – Honda Motor Corp. (ADR:HMC), Mercedes-Benz and Hyundai – as well as a Toyota Motor Corp. (ADR:TM) engine plant, in the past 20 years.

Shelby’s efforts induced the formation of Boycott Alabama Now, a group that says it wants America to give Shelby a taste of what he’s doing to America. Such a boycott “will include any travel into the state well as boycotting the purchase of anything produced in any way within the state,” according to the group’s Web site.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell expressed reservations about the bill’s legislation and doubts it’ll garner enough Senate votes to pass. The state he represents, Kentucky, has a 7,000 employee Toyota plant, The Boston Globe reported.

Then there’s Tennessee, the only state with U.S., Asian, and European auto assembly plants. And in an interview with BusinessWeek, Tennessee’s Sen. Bob Corker seems to understand his colleague Shelby’s positions on the bailout more so than his own.

“It has not been an issue of local politics. For me there is no issue of local politics. I try and dig into these issues and present thoughtful responses to the situation. In defense of Senator Shelby, I knew where he was going to be on this issue before this ever arose,” Corker said. “He was against the Chrysler loans back in 1979. He was always going to be against this, as he was against the Wall Street bailout legislation. In his case, it’s not the politics of the auto industry. That’s just who he is.”

But Corker nailed the source of problem.

“Regardless of what happens this week, the legislation, if passed, is not going to move people to buy cars,” Corker said.

Auto Woes Extend Beyond the Big Three

Falling demand is something all carmakers can agree on, especially in Germany, Europe’s largest economy and the home of Europe’s largest carmaker, Volkswagen.

While all focus has been on Detroit’s Big Three, few have noticed that Volkswagen – like Detroit’s Big Three – is trying to bite off its own piece of a broad government bailout. In October, Germany’s parliament passed a $642 billion (500 billion euro) bank-rescue plan to stabilize the country’s banks. And Volkswagen has quietly sought government help for its financial services and banking units.

Premium carmaker BMW said it wasn’t sure if it would ask for similar help, Reuters reported.

That’s why it’s not accurate to assume bailout opponents share the same opinions on the bailout as foreign automakers. As Money Morning previously reported, it’s more than just Big Three employees on the line.

While the Big Three employ more than 200,000 people directly, they support millions more indirectly through suppliers and dealerships. The collapse of the Big Three could ultimately cost the economy more than 2 million jobs total. And that doesn’t count the estimated 1 million Americans – including many retired autoworkers – who rely on the U.S. auto companies for pension and healthcare benefits.

According to Germany’s VDA industry group, parts purchased by manufacturers account for 75% of the value of an average car, Bloomberg reported.

Here in the United States, as many as 60% of Honda’s U.S. parts suppliers are also major parts sources for the Big Three.

If a manufacturer’s major customer goes under, it too may scale back operations and therefore be unable to meet the manufacturing and shipping demands of another customer.

“You can’t underestimate what would happen when a large player collapses,” BMW Chief Executive Officer Norbert Reithofer e-mailed to Bloomberg. “That would impact the supplier structure and therefore the entire industry.”

The United States is also the largest market for most foreign automakers. Allowing one or all of the Big Three to go under would add millions to the running unemployment numbers and deepen the recession, making the U.S. market less likely to buy their cars.

Source: Auto Bailout Awaits Congressional Approval with Millions of Jobs at Stake

So… Yesterday, we saw the euro lead the currencies higher all day, with the single unit finishing the day in the 1.3050 area… I turned on the currency screens this morning, and what did my wondering eyes did appear, but the euro trading at 1.3170, and others bringing up the rear!

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut rates further this morning, bringing their internal rate to 1/2%, 50 BPS, that’s it… So, one would think that bringing your interest rates to near zero, would NOT be a good thing for the currency, right? Well, in this day and age of rewarding a currency for lower interest rates to promote growth, that’s not the case. The franc has rallied on the news… Of course it’s probably just caught up in the euro’s move higher.

Looks like the U.S. House of Representatives approved a $14 Billion package for GM and Chrysler, but the Senate has put some roadblocks out on this deal, and that puts the whole deal in jeopardy… A Final Jeopardy if you will for the contestants Gm and Chrysler! Notice I didn’t include Ford. The people at Ford, backed out, and tried to put a 100 miles of desert between them and GM & Chrysler. Good for them!

Well, earlier in the week, the glimmering light of the bailout for the Big 3, helped the currencies… But now that the Trading Theme seems to be taking its last breaths, the news of the bailout in jeopardy, has helped the currencies, as this would mean that we could finally be back to focusing on fundamentals! Could we really? Is it possible? Well, maybe if you’re real good and take a nap… No wait, that’s what I used to tell the kids on Christmas Eve! It IS possible… But we need a few more days of what we’ve seen so far this week to confirm the Trading Theme to be a thing of the past.

Speaking of things of the past… A Bank of New York (BONY) strategist, issued a statement saying the, “Carry Trade is Dead and Buried.” Hmmm… I beg to differ with him on that, for if we get investors and traders focused on fundamentals again, and the risk takers come out of the woodwork again, the Carry Trade could very well be on the burners again… But then, I do see his thought here and that is (I think it is) that if every Central Bank is cutting interest rates to the bone, there won’t be any “high yielders” left to buy on the buy-side of the Carry Trade. Well, let’s see now… Aussie and New Zealand were the BIG WINNERS of the last Carry Trade craziness, and their rates are lower, but still 3 and 4 hundred basis points above those in Japan, Switzerland and the U.S.! But, the Carry Traders might have to look further, and do some additional leg work this time to find the “high yielders” like… Brazil, and India…

OK… I came across this story yesterday and really had my blood boiling… I wanted to talk to the Big Boss Frank Trotter about it and get his thoughts, but the poor guy was tied up on the phone all day, well, all day that is, until I left to go home! Anyway, here’s the base story, that the entire piece can be read here.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is considering issuing its own debt for the first time, the Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with the matter.

“Fed officials have approached Congress about the move, which could include issuing bills or some other form of debt and would provide the central bank with more flexibility to tackle the financial crisis.”

NOW WAIT JUST A MINUTE THERE BIG BEN! This is the bailiwick of the Treasury Dept, issuing debt! You’ve already got the printing press for currency, and now you want to issue your own Debt? This is complete madness I tell you, complete madness! I think the Fed is thinking of ways to deal with deflation…

Oh well, apparently, Big Ben can do whatever he pleases these days, the new President has named an “energy Czar” and the automakers might get a “Car Czar”, the new President had better think about naming a Fed Reserve and Treasury dept Czar!

OK, yesterday’s printing of the Monthly Budget Statement saw the monthly deficit not “as bad” as forecast, with the figure posting a $164.8 Billion deficit, instead of $171 Billion as forecast… That’s still really bad folks, let’s not get caught up in the media spin of talking about how it “wasn’t as bad as forecast”! Let’s focus on the fact that for the second consecutive month the Budget Deficit widened… And this month it went from $98 Billion in October to $164.8 Billion in November!

Of course you know why this is happening, right? No? Ahhh grasshopper… Recall the bailout money? Well, whenever any of it is spent, it will show up here! Want even further bad news here? Government revenue fell 4.2%, while spending soared 24%!

The Treasury Dept has written checks on all but $15 million of the first half of the $700 Billion allocated to help financial institutions.

So, as I said the other day when I mentioned that the President-elect’s plan to spend more money on infrastructure since 1950 might be the right thing to do at the wrong time… We’ve got the deep, dark recession going on, the Credit Crisis and this collapse of revenue… But don’t let that stop him! Why would we want to stop with the deficit spending here? I shake my head in disgust!

Today’s data cupboard has the Trade Deficit for November, which should narrow, given the collapse of the Oil price. That and the recession should allow the Trade Deficit to narrow… But, let’s not get caught up in the media spin on this too… You see, the Trade Deficit is still $53 Billion, which annually is $636 Billion… Which is probably right about where it will end out this year…

And… $53 Billion still needs to be financed! Let’s not forget that little ditty!

I just watched the euro gap up to 1.32… This is a rout like I’ve not seen since last summer! And wouldn’t you know it, here it is, and I’m going on vacation! Oh well, maybe the old adage that the currencies rally when Chuck’s away, will come back!

I just can’t pass up on this one though… And I know the legal beagles will be all over me on this, but here goes… This certainly looks like the Santa rally that I talked about earlier this week, eh?

I know, I know, it could all be reversed in a New York Minute, but you’ve seen these types of routs before…

Another currency on the rally tracks this week is the Chinese renminbi… After all the “bad talk” about China last week, the Chinese have said, “you’ll be sorry”! What I’m talking about here is the fact that everyone is dissing the renminbi right now, and selling it, and pushing forward contracts down in value… And the Chinese, because they can, have moved the renminbi higher VS the dollar this week! There! In Your Face, disgrace!

So… What’s everyone thinking these days buying Treasuries? I mean, the yield on a 3 month T-Bill is 1 BP! You have to go out 30 years in a Treasury Bond to get 3% yield! OUCH! But, investors keep buying! Well, I think what you’ve got going on here is simply the fact that all this repatriation of dollars has investors with tons of cash, that they don’t want to put into banks, (for a number of reasons, like FDIC insurance limits, shaky banks, etc.) So, they put the cash into Treasuries, realizing that they may not earn any interest, but it will be there when they want it at some point in the future. And this “point in the future” is what scares the bejeebers out of me! Because when the icing is off the cake here, there will be a swift exodus from Treasuries, as no one will want to be the last man standing here… UH-OH! Just be careful folks…

The weekly Initial Jobless Claims will also print this morning. We’ve seen a huge increase to average above 500K in the Weekly Initial Claims, and that should hold true today. This isn’t a good thing folks…

Well, the rally this week hasn’t been cornered by currencies… The Commodities have come back too! Oil is up $2, but the real meat here is the rally in Gold! Gold this morning is perched above $827, when it was sitting at $770 just a week ago!

Currencies today 12/11/08: A$ .6660, kiwi .5525, C$ .8015, euro 1.3235, sterling 1.49, Swiss .84, ISK 215.50, rand 10.13, krone 6.95, SEK 8, forint 199, zloty 3.01, koruna 19.64, yen 91.30, baht 35, sing 1.4890, HKD 7.75, INR 48.30, China 6.8515, pesos 13.30, BRL 2.3950, dollar index 84.33, Oil $45.50, Silver $10.46, and Gold… $832

Source: A Huge Currency Rally

The single unit was higher within the 1.29 handle overnight than it is right now, as it has given back a bit of ground on the news that a European Union Commissioner, Buti, said that, “economic indicators point south very badly.” This is strictly, jawboning to keep the euro’s move VS the dollar in check, folks…

The Bank of Canada (BOC) did cut rates yesterday 75 BPS… You may recall me telling you yesterday that the “experts” thought the cut would be 50 BPS, but I thought it would be 75 BPS… Maybe, one day, these surveys of “experts” will include the Pfennig writer, as he seems to be more “on target” than the current “experts”! Now, Chuck, who would you be referring to here? HA!

I also said yesterday that I didn’t think the markets would care, and they didn’t, as the larger rate cut did little to hurt the loonie. In fact, the loonie rallied a bit on the news!

Again, I don’t understand the mentality here with these Central Bank rate cuts… It’s not the cost of the credit that’s keeping the credit crisis all locked up, it’s the availability of such credit / money! So… Here’s a memo to Central Banks around the world… “STOP ALREADY!” All you’re are doing is inviting inflation into your economy, and debasing your currency!

That glimmering light that I talked about the other day for the Credit Crisis is getting smaller all the time, as the Big 3 still don’t have their bailout from the Gov’t (read taxpayers)… It now looks as though it could get done today, but at a much smaller figure than previously discussed. It now looks as though the Big 3 will get $15 Billion and they had better smile and say “thank you very much” as they leave the room!

It also looks like the Big 3 will get the “Car Czar” that they so desperately fought to keep from looking over them. The “Car Czar” will have the power to call Chapter 11 on GM or Chrysler should they not deliver a sound plan by the end of March. Geez Louise, why do they get 4 months to some up with a sound plan? They should have had one to get the funds to begin with! OK, I had better stop there, I’m really pounding the keys right now… I think I’ll step away for a minute and cool off…

OK, I’m back now, hope you didn’t miss me, or that I was away too long! No wait, this is text, you have no idea how long I was gone! Silly me!

You know… I was thinking aloud in my car yesterday, and saying to myself that it sure looks like all those pundits that called for a breakup of the European Union by the end of the year, will have to put their tails between their collective legs, and fade away… You know, the European Union (EU) had more pressure on them in 2005, when the French voted no on the Constitution, and other things, and they held steadfast then, and if they could it then, then this little tiff with Spain and Italy will pass… These pundits like to point to the problems that Italy is experiencing… And I say…”What’s so new about that? Italy has had problems since I’ve been following currencies (1985 for those of you keeping score at home)! I truly believe that Italy and Spain like to complain about the European Union and the euro, but when they get behind closed doors, when they let their hair hang down, they thank their lucky stars that they were included in the Euro Club!

The boys and girls over at Bank of America (BOA) believe they are seeing the dollar repatriation flows waning… Now, I wonder how many research people they employ over at BOA, when all it would take is for one of them to read the Pfennig, to see that I said all that yesterday! Any way… Let’s listen to what BOA had to say about this… “The repatriation demand for the dollar may have run its course, we retain our core long euro-dollar exposure and add long euro-dollar exposure today”… Now… You would think that given the size of BOA that saying something like that could really “move the market”…

But, given the markets “don’t care” attitude until the credit crisis unlocks, I understand why it didn’t! The BIG POINT here is that we could very well be seeing all this dollar repatriation end. And… Like I said Monday, the risk takers were slowly dipping their toes back into the waters which is what it will take to get the currencies and precious metals on the rally tracks again. But, put these two things working together, and voila’ you’ve got the makings of what could very well be a Santa Rally…

The boys over at the Bank of Japan (BOJ) are at “it” again… Mom… He’s doing it again! He’s looking at me! Mom! He’s got his hand on my side of the car seat! OK, I’ll stop there… But the BOJ was “jawboning” again in an attempt to keep the yen from strengthening further VS the dollar. BOJ Gov Shirakawa reminded the markets last night that the Ministry of Finance has the option of intervening if necessary… The Ministry of Finance (MOF) are the signal callers for the BOJ, and they are the ones that determine if intervention is to come into play. For new readers… BOJ intervention means the Bank sells yen in the markets to keep it from getting too strong.

In the currency world, this is called a “dirty float”… And the MOF and BOJ like to keep it “dirty”…

OK, I was laughing when I wrote that last bit, but notice I didn’t carry on… Maybe I’m growing up! HA!

Down Under in the South Pacific, Australia saw a very nice rise in Consumer Confidence of 7.6%, adding on to November’s 4.3% gain. The index collapsed this summer, but with the rate cuts the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have instituted, it seems to be rounding back into shape.

In New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Gov. Bollard, gave a speech titled “Everyone needs to play their part.” In the speech, Bollard, reminded everyone that New Zealand’s inflation rate is still very high (5.1%). Hmmm… Was that the “wink and nod” that interest rates are not going to go much lower? I think it was folks.. But I guess it all depends on if the rest of the world continues to think that by cutting rates they will unlock the credit crisis!

Both of these things for Aussie and kiwi could underpin the currencies at current levels…

And another “Commodity Currency” the Brazilian real really put on the Ritz yesterday with a very strong rally… Just another sign that the risk takers are dipping their toes again…

OK… I’ll slide away from the currencies for a minute to talk about a news article that one of my fave writers, William Pesek, provided to Bloomberg, titled: China Will Be Happy Geithner Isn’t a Goldman Guy… Here are some snippets of the article that can be read in its entirety HERE.

“Why does Goldman Sachs run your government?”

After seven-plus years in Asia, I’m no longer startled by this question. It was posed to me yet again recently — this time by Kuala Lumpur taxi driver Sumit Kotari.

“What’s wrong with America is that it’s run by investment bankers, mostly from the same bank,” the 49-year-old Malaysian said. “How can Americans stand for it? Is Barack Obama from Goldman Sachs, too?”

It has been reported in Asia that Neel Kashkari, assistant Treasury secretary in charge of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, worked for the same New York-based investment bank. President-elect Obama’s decision to seek advice from other former Goldman Sachs bigwigs, such as Robert Rubin, also grabbed attention.

Even the guy helping choose a replacement for Timothy Geithner at the Fed Bank of New York came from Goldman Sachs. It makes one breathe a sigh of relief that Geithner, who will be the next Treasury secretary, doesn’t have Goldman Sachs on his resume.

The point here isn’t to pick on Goldman Sachs. Yet it is seen by many in Asia as the gold standard of investment banks. Its name also is a byword for the perception of incestuous ties between Wall Street and Washington.”

OK, I’m back now… The point of the discussion is to acknowledge that to Asian, it appears that Goldman Sachs runs our country… Now, that may be perception, but as they teach you perception is reality. And you have to wonder if the Asian Central Banks are shaking their heads at what we’re doing, and how we’re doing it… Now, some might say, “Who cares what the Asian Central Banks think of what and how we’re doing it.?” Ahhh grasshopper… We all have to be very cognizant of what the Asian Central Banks think about us, because, you see… They hold most of our I.O.U.’s and they could make things very messy for us any time they wish!

So… How about the Illinois Gov. getting arrested yesterday? Could it be two Illinois Governors incarcerated? That whole story is pretty amazing that someone would do what he is alleged to have done, knowing that his phone was tapped!

Ok enough of that! We’ll see the Monthly Budget Statement / Deficit for November, today… Look for it to explode!

Currencies today 12/10/08: A$ .6590, kiwi .5465, C$ .7950, euro 1.2950, sterling 1.4830, Swiss .83, ISK 261, rand 10.21, krone 7.0475, SEK 8.1650, forint 203.50, zloty 3.05, koruna 19.99, yen 92.60, baht 35.50, sing 1.5010, HKD 7.75, INR 49.01, China 6.8835, pesos 13.50, BRL 2.4725, dollar index 85.71, Oil $43.80, Silver $10.02, and Gold… $792

Source: A Bailout For The Big 3

“It is not my job to hire and fire, but what I’m trying to suggest is that you need to have new teams in place,” Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.), chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, said today on “Good Morning America”.  “If you are going to restructure a company you can’t be asking the people frankly, many who were involved in creating the problems we’re in, to be involved in restructuring.”

That’s just one of several possible strings attached to a bailout to the Big Three – General Motors Corp. (GM), Ford Motor Co. (F), and Chrysler Corp. The first is that the $34 billion requested could be turn out to be about $15 billion. Another could be forcing GM to cancel its long-established dividend. (Ford suspended its dividend last year.)

Another could be additional concessions from the United Auto Workers union, Reuters reported.

Another possible change that will no doubt garner some attention is the creation of a government-appointed “car czar” to oversee the bailout. The New York Times reported Sunday that Democrats were drafting legislation that would call for the strict government control of a czar-controlled oversight board comprised of five cabinet secretaries and the head of the Environmental Protection Agency.

Whatever concessions are on the table, some form of bailout is likely to pass, the Associated Press reported.

“It sounds like we have agreement on those basic principles that would be required for a bill that the president could sign,” White House press secretary Dana Perino told reporters today.

So far, the carmakers have proposed a wide range of changes to help persuade lawmakers to approve the bailout money, the carmakers proposed a wide range of changes. Among the highlights:

• Executive salary cuts: Ford announced that the salary of Ford CEO Alan Mulally would be cut to $1 a year if the firm actually borrowed money from the government. General Motors said that Wagoner, the CEO, also will accept a $1 salary. Chrysler’s Robert “Bob” Nardelli is already being paid only $1 a year, according to the Chrysler plan. Mulally had a base salary of $2 million and total compensation of $21.7 million last year, according to the company’s filings. Wagoner received base pay of $1.6 million and total compensation of $14.4 million. Closely held Chrysler does not disclose executive pay.

• Financial restructuring: GM intends to renegotiate its outstanding debt with lenders and bondholders. As of the third-quarter’s close, the firm had more than $30 billion in unsecured debt. GM said it anticipates making all of the roughly $28 billion in payments it owes its suppliers.

• Product streamlining: As part of its cost-cutting efforts, GM suggested that two of its brands – Pontiac and Saturn – could be dropped from its product mix. Pontiac – known in the past for such cars as the Firebird, Trans-Am and GTO – could become a niche brand sold by other dealerships. GM would look for alternatives for dealers of the Saturn, which revolutionized the industry with its no-haggle pricing policies. The company has already said it was considering the sale of its Hummer vehicle line.

• Union concessions: GM intends to seek additional changes in the labor contract it has with the United Auto Workers union – enabling it to modify retiree health care plans and job guarantees the company says it can no longer afford. Money Morning previously reported that national union leaders with all three of the U.S. automakers are planning to hold an emergency meeting in Detroit today (Wednesday).

• New alliances: Chrysler, which a year ago was sold by German automaker Daimler AG (DAI) to the U.S. private equity group Cerberus Capital Management LP, said it remains focused on “developing partnerships, strategic alliances or consolidations” as part of its long-term plans. Chrysler leaders say the firm could save between $3.5 billion and $9 billion a year if it merged with another automaker. GM last month said that it had halted discussions about a possible combination with Chrysler to focus on its own turnaround efforts.

• More hybrids, no corporate jets: Each of the Big Three pledged an accelerated introduction of hybrid vehicles. Ford yesterday promised to put “a family of hybrids, plug-in electric vehicles, and battery-electric vehicles” on sale by 2012, BusinessWeek.com reported. The specific plan calls for a battery-powered electric commercial van in 2010 and a battery-powered retail sedan in 2011. The company is also believed to be developing plug-in versions of its Focus and Fusion cars by 2012-2013. By 2010, Ford said 80% of its investments will be in cars and so-called “crossover” vehicles-as opposed to trucks and SUVs. That’s up from 60% in 2007. Ford and GM also announced plans to get rid of corporate jets. Mulally, Wagoner and Nardelli were all criticized at a House hearing last month – and ridiculed in the media afterwards – when they admitted they had each flown their corporate jets to Washington to ask for rescue money. According to CNNMoney, Ford promised to sell its five corporate jets, while GM vowed to sell four of its seven – and to transfer the leases on the remaining three to another operator. Chrysler spokesman Ed Garsten says Chrysler does not own any private aircraft but instead leases them on an “as-needed” basis. The CEOs apparently learned their lessons well, albeit a bit late: When they return to Washington to beg for the loan money later this week, Mulally and Wagoner will be wheeling hybrid vehicles made by their companies; Nardelli will also drive a hybrid in his return to Capitol Hill, published reports state.

Not on that list: Replacing current CEOs. And GM said putting Wagoner on the chopping block isn’t a constructive solution, despite Dodd’s suggestion.

“GM employees, dealers, suppliers and the GM board of directors feel strongly that Rick is the right guy to lead GM through this incredibly difficult and challenging time,” GM spokesman Steve Harris told the AP.

Source: Auto Bailout Could Have Strings Attached: Ousting CEOs, Appointing Car Czar