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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; CASS</title>
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		<title>Multinational Corporations Step up the Search for the &#8216;Next China&#8217;</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/multinational-corporations-step-up-the-search-for-the-next-china/3108</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/multinational-corporations-step-up-the-search-for-the-next-china/3108#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Jun 2008 00:16:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason Simpkins</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CAJ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CASS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[china]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HBI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Simpkins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NSANY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vietnam]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/multinational-corporations-step-up-the-search-for-the-next-china/3108</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>As far as foreign direct investment in Asia is concerned, China is still the undisputed leader, drawing approximately $42.78 billion in just the first five months of the year, an increase of 55% from the same period a year ago.</p>
<p>But China is coping with a number of growing pains that include higher wages and a strengthening currency. That has left a void for other emerging markets to step up and take the place of a multinational corporation’s best friend.</p>
<p>China used to be thought of as the world’s factory floor &#8211; a haven of cheap labor and minimal regulatory oversight for large multinational companies. The result was a massive influx of foreign investment and rapid gross domestic product (GDP) growth. But&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As far as foreign direct investment in Asia is concerned, China is still the undisputed leader, drawing approximately $42.78 billion in just the first five months of the year, an increase of 55% from the same period a year ago.<span id="more-3108"></span></p>
<p>But China is coping with a number of growing pains that include higher wages and a strengthening currency. That has left a void for other emerging markets to step up and take the place of a multinational corporation’s best friend.</p>
<p>China used to be thought of as the world’s factory floor &#8211; a haven of cheap labor and minimal regulatory oversight for large multinational companies. The result was a massive influx of foreign investment and rapid gross domestic product (GDP) growth. But the country has outgrown this model and is shifting from low-skill, labor-intensive industries to a higher standard of living.</p>
<p>A recent study by the <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=679397" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?cid="679397_1">Booz Allen Hamilton Inc.</a> consulting firm found that <a href="http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/calbreath/20080615-9999-1b15dean.html" onclick="s_objectID=">wages  in China rose 9.1% for white-collar managers and 7.6% for blue-collar workers</a> over the past year, the <strong><em>San Diego Tribune</em></strong> reported.</p>
<p>“The days of  massive labor oversupply are over,” Cai Fang from the Chinese Academy of Social  Sciences (CASS), <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7593357" onclick="s_objectID=">said at a recent  economic forum</a>. “According to my research and relevant surveys, the wages of China’s migrant workers rose 2.8% in 2004, 6.5% in 2005, 11.5% in 2006 and 20% in 2007.”</p>
<p>Part of the reason is that China’s notorious one-child  family planning policy is beginning to cause a labor shortage.</p>
<p>Last year, Zhang Yi from the Institute of Population and  Labor Economics, told <strong><em>Asia News</em></strong> that <a href="http://www.lifenews.com/int787.html" onclick="s_objectID=">the one-child policy has produced an  effect where fewer rural workers are going into cities to work</a>.</p>
<p>“In the beginning, it was believed that our big population would be a hindrance to our economic development. But over the past decades, experience has told us otherwise,” Zhang said. “Japan, for instance, has little in the way of resources and boasts one of the highest population densities in the world, but it is a thriving economy and one of the richest nations. Labor is the most important source of wealth.”</p>
<p>By 2025, China’s labor force will have been shrinking in  total size for more than a decade, according to Zhang.</p>
<p>Another problem is inflation, as high consumer and producer prices are spilling over into wages. Consumer prices rose 7.7% in May after inflation reached a 12-year high of 8.7% in February. China’s producer price index rose 8.2% in May, the highest in more than three years.</p>
<p>Inflation also makes exports more expensive for foreign nations, particularly the United States. The Labor Department said last week that prices for Chinese-made goods were 4.6% higher in May than a year earlier.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the dollar has fallen 20% versus the yuan since  2005. Yesterday (Thursday), <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&amp;sid=aaxOyIK1w1IM&amp;refer=asia" onclick="s_objectID=" news?pid="20601080&amp;sid=aaxOyIK1w1IM&amp;refer=asia_1">The  yuan rose to its strongest position ever, trading at 6.8762 against the U.S.  currency as of 11:53 a.m. in Shanghai</a>, <strong><em>Bloomberg News</em></strong> reported.</p>
<p>Companies used to avoid higher wages by moving further inland, but even rural villages are finding it difficult to muster up enough manpower to furnish factories. And now new government regulations and labor laws have companies retreating beyond the country’s borders.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/03/new-labor-laws-and-strengthening-yuan-could-put-the-squeeze-on-chinese-exports/" onclick="s_objectID=">Earlier  this year, revisions to China’s labor laws greatly expanded the rights of  workers and increased their bargaining power</a>. A loophole that had allowed companies to layoff employees hired on temporary or fixed-term basis without compensation has been closed. Workers employed by a company for 10 years are now entitled to one month’s severance pay for every year worked. And employers are required to consult an “employee representative congress” with regard to changes in hours, benefits and compensation.</p>
<p>Willy Lin, managing director of Milo’s Knitwear  (International) Group, told the <em><strong>Financial Times</strong></em> that the new labor law could increase costs by as much as 8% in 2008. However, in collusion with a higher minimum wage, increased social security payments and outside factors such as the appreciation of the yuan, Lin thinks the price paid by Chinese employers could be much greater.</p>
<p>“We estimate that, added together, labor costs [in mainland  China] will be close to 40% higher for this year,” he said.</p>
<p>China is also phasing out its practice of charging lower corporate tax rates for foreign companies. And while it does so, other Asian countries are beginning to look more appealing to foreign companies.</p>
<p>Here are a few:</p>
<h3>The Next China</h3>
<p>Vietnam had a banner year in 2007, attracting $20.3 billion in foreign direct investment  (FDI). <a href="http://english.vietnamnet.vn/biz/2008/06/788908/" onclick="s_objectID=">But the country  already expects to have accumulated another $23 billion in FDI in just the  first half of 2008</a>.</p>
<p>Canon Inc. (ADR: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ACAJ" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="NYSE%3ACAJ_1">CAJ</a>), <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/18/business/worldbusiness/18invest.html?em&amp;ex=1213934400&amp;en=bce9f9fd9a3092f9&amp;ei=5087%0A" onclick="s_objectID=" 18invest.html?em&#038;ex="1213934400&amp;en=bce9f9_1">for instance, is no longer expanding its operations in China, but it is doubling its Vietnamese workforce to 8,000 at a printer factory outside Hanoi</a>, the <strong><em>New  York Times</em></strong> reported.  Both Nissan  Motor Co. (ADR: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ANSANY" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="NASDAQ%3ANSANY_1">NSANY</a>)  and Hanesbrands Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AHBI" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="NYSE%3AHBI_1">HBI</a>)  and China’s own <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=HKG%3A2678" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="HKG%3A2678_1">Texhong  Textile Group Ltd.</a> are also reportedly expanding their operations nearby.</p>
<p>“We found more ready availability of both land and labor in  both Vietnam and Thailand,” <a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/officerProfile?symbol=HBI.N&amp;officerId=862442" onclick="s_objectID=" officerprofile?symbol="HBI.N&amp;officerId=862442_1">Gerald  Evans</a>, president of Asia business development at Hanesbrands, told <strong><em>The  Times</em></strong>.</p>
<p>Where as unskilled Chinese workers now earn $120 a month for a standard 40-hour workweek, factory workers in Vietnam make as little as $50 a month for a 48-hour workweek that includes a full day on Saturdays, the paper said.</p>
<p>Other facts to consider about Vietnam:</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>More than half its population       is under 25-years old.</li>
<li>At 2%, Vietnam’s unemployment rate is among the world’s lowest, trailing only Azerbaijan, Cuba, Iceland, Andorra and Liechtenstein.</li>
<li>Its labor and production costs are roughly one-third of China’s, making Vietnam a worthy contestant in the contest for new production sites.</li>
<li>Its economy was able to shrug       off the 1997 “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_financial_crisis" onclick="s_objectID=">Asian       Contagion</a>” financial crisis and averaged 5.5% growth for each of the next two years &#8211; while other nations in the region saw their own economies contract.</li>
<li>Since January 2007, it’s been       member of the World Trade Organization.<br />
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