Geithner, currently the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is viewed by Democrats and Republicans alike as probably the most qualified candidate to succeed current Treasury Secretary Henry M. “Hank” Paulson Jr., since whoever fills this post will have to be able to step right in and make whatever moves are needed to fix a financial system that seems to get worse by the week. Geithner is actually viewed as perhaps the one candidate with the qualifications, personality and personality needed for success.

But there’s a problem.  The man chosen by President-elect Obama to run the U.S. Treasury failed to pay $34,000 in taxes over several years in the first half of the decade. This oversight, which relates to a period when Geithner worked as a senior official with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), will complicate a Senate Finance Committee hearing into his nomination as U.S. treasury secretary, the online edition of the London (U.K.) Times reported. That issue – as well as a second, regarding the employment of a housekeeper without a work permit – emerged in papers released last week by the Senate Finance Committee.

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle were saying last week that they were still hoping Geithner could be confirmed, but with each passing day there are a growing number of critics, many of whom are calling for him to withdraw. The days ahead will tell us whether Geithner will be able to assume the post so many believe he’s just right for, or whether President Obama will have to settle for a less-than-perfect replacement.

As Obama prepares to take the historic oath of office as the 44th President of the United States tomorrow, he faces the worst financial and economic crises since the Great Depression.  He intends to hit the ground running and put his personal touches on the much discussed stimulus package.

Congressional Democrats revealed plans for the new administration’s stimulus, which has grown to $825 billion and which includes $275 billion in tax cuts.  For good measure, the Senate approved the release of the next $350 billion of Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) money, but only after Obama pledged to place restrictions on banks that will be receiving funds.

Market Matters

A light week on the economic calendar gives way to more earnings reports as investors move beyond (depressed) financials and focus on other key corporate releases, including:

• International Business Machines (IBM) (Tuesday).
• Google Inc. (GOOG) (Thursday).
• Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) (Thursday).
• General Electric Co. (GE) (Friday).

Expectations are incredibly dire so any positive earnings surprises (no matter how low) should be well received.  The new Citigroup Inc. (C) will be worth watching as some analysts expect its downward spiral to continue and anticipate a similar fate as the bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ).

Amid all the talk of recession and bailouts, foreclosures and bankruptcies, unemployment and deflation, bear markets and capitulation, there was actually an airline-related story that actually was the feel-good story of the week last week – and it involved perennial also-ran US Airways Group Inc. (LCC). On Thursday, in an incident that the New York governor has labeled as “Miracle on the Hudson” – and in a story that finally lifts the human spirit above the “gloom and doom” of the ongoing financial crisis – U.S. Airways Capt. Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger III made a series of split-second decisions and heroically ditched his Airbus jetliner in the Hudson River after a dual engine failure, saving the lives of all 150 passengers and crew.

Many folks didn’t even get their feet wet. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) said it will be studying this case as an example of all the things to do “right” during such a crisis – in stark contrast to most of its investigations, which look at the sometimes scandalous events that went wrong. Sullenberger, a former U.S. Air Force fighter pilot is also a skilled glider pilot, and is also the airlines’ expert on safety.

So while Vikram S. Pandit (Citigroup), Kenneth D. Lewis (Bank of America Corp. (BAC)), John Thain (Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER)), G. Richard Wagoner Jr. (General Motors Corp. (GM)), and many others, shirk responsibility over corporate (and shareholder) losses, let’s not forgot that true heroes still exist and their leadership is not measured by the value of their stock options or investment portfolios, or the size of their (missed) bonuses. Thank you, Sully.

Bank of America, fresh on the heals of its first quarterly loss in 17 years, emerged as the initial beneficiary of new TARP dollars (and loan guarantees) to help absorb Merrill into its corporate umbrella (where it joined forces with another failing institution, (Countrywide Financial Corp). While BofA seemed to be embracing the “financial supermarket” concept made famous by Citigroup, the latter took the opposite approach and sold part of its Smith Barney brokerage unit to Morgan Stanley (MS) and divided its remaining operations into two entities (See related stories on both Citi and BofA in today’s issue of Money Morning.)

Citi lost more than $8 billion last quarter, despite its personal government bailout and initial TARP money.  Deutsche Bank AG (DB) warned of a $6 billion quarterly loss of its own, revealing that the financial debacle is not limited to the United States.  JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM) recorded a slight profit last quarter, but added to its loan loss reserves as CEO James “Jamie” Dimon expressed “disappointment” over the results.

While the financials reported earnings (losses) early to avoid the painful waiting, the news from other sectors was not any better. Alcoa Inc. (AA) kicked off the earnings season by announcing worse-than-expected results, while Intel Corp. (INTC) lived up to its dire outlook by reporting a 90% drop in profits.

Though Thomson Research predicted a 14% decline in Standard & Poor’s 500 Index earnings for the quarter, that forecast may look optimistic after the initial reports.  In other corporate news, Nortel Networks Corp. (NT) filed for bankruptcy; Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) found a new CEO; Circuit City Stores Inc. (CCTYQ) moved into liquidation mode; and Apple Inc.(AAPL) will continue without Steve Jobs for the foreseeable future.

Oil plunged below $35 a barrel for a bit as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) each reduced their projections for global demand in 2009.  Stocks resumed their downward spiral (before rebounding slightly late in the week) as the banking sector proved that TARP was no easy fix and that the earnings season could be disastrous.  A horrific retail sales report (see below) added to the economic woes as investors searched long and hard for something to believe in.  Thanks again, Sully, for the welcome relief (no matter how temporary).

Weekly Economic Calendar

Alas, a Ben Bernanke sighting.  During the week, the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman expressed his concern that a new stimulus package might not be enough to provide a “significant boost” to the economy and confirmed that policymakers will “do their part” to promote recovery.  The Fed’s Beige Book depicted a domestic economy growing weaker by the day as conditions deteriorated within virtually all sectors across virtually all regions.  Fearful of a weakening labor picture, consumers disregarded the available (deep) discounts provided by the nation’s retailers and contributed to a very dismal holiday season.  In fact, retail sales plunged by 2.7% in December, more than twice the expected decrease in activity, and suffered the first annual decline on record (since 1992).

While the trade deficit dropped to its lowest level in five years, exports also fell as our international trading partners have lost their unlimited appetites for U.S.-made goods and services.  This bad news for domestic manufacturers will surely be reflected in corporate earnings in the quarters to come.  On that note, industrial production dropped by 2% in December, a far worse showing that analysts expected.  On the housing front, 30-year mortgage rates fell below 5%, though home purchases are still rare and borrowers with less than stellar credit face difficulties in refinancing loans in this environment.

The inflation picture offered a bit of a reprieve from the negativity (though naysayers continued touting deflation or worse).  Wholesale prices plummeted for the fifth consecutive month and experienced their first annual drop since 2001.  In December, gasoline prices fell by another 25% and even food costs suffered their largest decline since early 2006.  The less volatile core producer price index (PPI) – which excludes the “volatile” food and energy components – rose slightly in December, though most economists expect that the lower energy costs will soon impact other sectors of the economy, as well.  Consumer price index (CPI) data reflected another large decline in retail prices, and the smallest increase in annual inflation since 1954.

Unfortunately, few analysts even speak of the stimulus package that Americans have received at the pumps over the past few months as gas prices have plummeted far more than 50% since mid-summer (and this one won’t cost taxpayers a penny down the road).

Source: Could Tax Problems Trip up the Confirmation of the Best Candidate for Treasury Secretary?

At first, Netflix’s threat to Blockbuster seemed laughable. But now, with more consumers cutting back and looking for instant entertainment, low monthly costs and the ease of Netflix are really starting to squeeze Blockbuster.

And that’s not to say that Blockbuster hasn’t given its rivals a hand. There was the misguided and disastrous attempt to merge with financial-albatross Circuit City (OTC: CCTYQ), the botched roll-out of the “no more late fees – just other fees” program and the complete failure to see how a vindictive fee and collection system could alienate its customers.

But the competition isn’t just coming from Netflix. Redbox’s easy-to-use, dollar-a-day rental system is also stealing revenue. Most Redbox vending machines are located outside of parent company McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) and inside grocery stores. Often in the same shopping centers as Blockbuster.

In the same way Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK) missed the advent of digital, Blockbuster missed the transformative power of the Internet and subscription rentals. It’s playing catch-up. And only time will tell if BBI can recover.

Source: Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI) – Another Nail In The Coffin

But the question is – which ones?

In the financial services sector, 2008 was a year of spectacular failures:

• Bear Stearns Cos. and Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. were absorbed by JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC), respectively.
• Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (OTC: LEHMQ) filed for bankruptcy protection.
• And financial-sector giants American International Group Inc. (AIG) and Citigroup Inc. (C) were both bailed out a vast expense to taxpayers.

If at the start of 2008 I’d written that the entire New York investment banking business would disappear during the year, you’d have thought me a madman. But it has. The two houses still standing, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), are both now officially conventional banks, with lower leverage ratios and a changing business mix.

In the New Year, we’ll see less turbulence in financial services than in 2008, if only because it would be almost impossible for it to have more. The dangerous process of de-leveraging becomes less dangerous as leverage itself is reduced, and the capital injections from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) into the major U.S. banks have hastened their recovery. Solid banks such as Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), and PNC Financial Services (PNC) are likely to do quite well, gaining market share at the expense of their weaker brethren.

Indeed, Wells and PNC each completed major buyout deals right as 2008 came to a close.

This year, however, will be the one in which banks that have truly done a poor job will be separated out from those who merely made the obvious mistakes of the boom and just need time and some extra capital to work through their problems.

Citigroup, for example, was at the beginning of 2008 a pretty obvious example of financial-sector “roadkill.” A messy conglomerate of banking, investment banking and insurance that had been put together but never properly integrated, Citi had been at the forefront of every major financial disaster in the last 30 years and was not about to miss this one. The fact is that only weeks after receiving a $25 billion capital injection from the TARP, Citi was back in trouble again, this time requiring not only more capital, but a $300 billion guarantee of its liabilities. That’s a pretty good indicator that in a free market, Citi would have slid into corporate bankruptcy and liquidation.

Sign up below… and we’ll send you a new investment report for free: “Credit Crisis Report.”

Obviously, if the government chooses to keep Citi afloat, U.S. taxpayers, as a group, are (just) rich enough to make that happen. But a sensible government will eventually realize that these expensive rescues are pointless. The financial services business – once an economic mainstay – is declining in importance in the U.S. economy, and is probably half its relative size compared to its historic levels from the 1970s. In such an environment, capacity needs to be lost and Citi is the capacity most obviously surplus.

If Citi is propped up by the taxpayer, some other bank may be forced into bankruptcy, instead: My bet would be Bank of America, which made a very foolish acquisition in Countrywide Financial Corp., at the beginning of 2008 and a very dangerous one (because of its size and over-leverage) in Merrill Lynch right at the end of the year.

Countrywide was an enthusiastic participant in the worst excesses of the housing bubble, and hence will have a correspondingly large share of its detritus, while Merrill Lynch itself made what turned out to be a major misstep when it bought a major subprime mortgage lender, First Franklin, at the absolute peak of the bubble in 2006. Merrill had actually prided itself on its aggression in the housing finance business, but ended up having to shut down portions of First Franklin.

Aside from financial services, 2008’s major bailout was in the automobile sector. As is well known, all three major U.S. automakers – General Motors Corp. (GM), Ford Motor Co. (F) and Chrysler LLC – are in financial trouble and could be pushed over the edge by a couple of bad quarters. Given that the government would hate to see a major U.S. manufacturing sector disappear – especially one with the high profile that the car business has – and that the sums of money involved are smaller than in the banking business, I would not expect the automobile companies to be liquidated.

General Motors has world-class engineering and research capabilities that remain of huge value, and is becoming a bigger player in Asia, while Ford is in better financial shape than its competitors and also has good international operations and sufficient scale for its current focused strategy. On the other hand, it’s clear that both companies need to get out from under their past pension obligations, as well as their United Auto Workers Union (UAW) contracts, in order to compete against lower-cost competitors, both internationally and domestically (where a lot of the foreign carmakers now manufacture).

So, either a UAW agreement combined with a government assumption of most pension and healthcare obligations or a Chapter 11 filing (which would void the UAW and pension contracts) is needed. My bet would be on a “prepackaged” Chapter 11 filing – not a disaster for the companies, but I’d still avoid the shares.

As for Chrysler, it is too small to compete properly, has no international presence, and is owned by an overstretched private equity outfit. So hasta la vista, Chrysler!

Another area that’s seen its share of bankruptcies is retailing: Circuit City Stores Inc. (OTC: CCTYQ), Linens n’ Things Inc., Mervyn’s LLC and Sharper Image Corp. (OTC: SHRPQ) were among the biggest names to file in 2008.

That’s not surprising: Consumer spending is down – even in nominal terms – and needs to fall further, as the U.S. consumer rebuilds his savings rate from 2007’s pathetic 0.7% to the 6% to 8% range that was more the norm in the pre-bubble years. The recession will inevitably push more retail chains over the edge, with the highest casualty rate being among high-end and specialty retailers: Saks Inc. (SKS), for example, is taking losses and could be in trouble.

At the bottom end, as a recent Money Morning “Buy, Sell or Hold” feature detailed, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) will probably continue to do well as middle class consumers find their budgets pinched and decide to restrict their spending to the land of “everyday low prices.”

If the recession is even longer and deeper than it’s already been, two other victims of middle-class spending cutbacks could be Target Corp. (TGT), which lacks Wal-Mart’s purchasing ability and whose prices are significantly higher than Wal-Mart’s, and The Home Depot Inc. (HD), which over-expanded during the housing boom, replacing traditional hardware stores, and which lacks the service capability to facilitate recession-resistant D-I-Y (do-it yourself) projects.

Producers of luxury goods, as well as retailers, may find themselves in trouble.

Just this Monday, china-maker Waterford Wedgwood PLC, filed for bankruptcy. The Dublin-based company, with more than 200 years of history, was a victim of social change and the move to less formality as much as it was to the global recession.

Like high-end retailers, luxury-goods producers will suffer from a massive decline in their customers’ purchasing power, as Wall Street bonuses disappear and redundancies soar, Middle Eastern oil sheiks cut back amid declining oil prices and the Russian mafia is forced to ask Prime Minister Vladimir Putin for bailouts. Many luxury goods producers are quite small and private, so their disappearance will not affect investors, but even such a giant as LVMH Moet Hennessey Louis Vuitton (OTC: LVMHF) will not find itself immune to the global downturn, and may be in trouble if that financial malaise remains in place for a long stretch.

It’s a rough tough world out there. As investors, corporate bankruptcy should be our No. 1 risk concern in 2009.

Source: Corporate Bankruptcies Will be a Key Investor Concern in the New Year

As the U.S. economy decelerates, pummeled by the aftershocks of the worldwide financial crisis, consumers have been hit from every direction: Unemployment has spiked, and will continue to rise, economy unwinds and continues to work through the aftershocks of the global credit crisis, consumers have been beset on all sides. Unemployment is up, home prices are down, and credit is hard to come by.

And although inflation is beginning to moderate somewhat – slowing to a pace of 3.7% year-over-year in October – it’s still well above the U.S. Federal Reserve’s desired target rate of 2.0%.

With rampant inflation no longer artificially propping up consumer spending figures, retail sales have really started to lose their luster. Sales figures are based on the value of goods sold – not the volume – so the recent decline commodity and energy prices will translate into a sharp decline in retail sales.

That decline will be dreadfully apparent in this year’s holiday sales, but it will also carry into 2009. The question, now, is how much worse consumer behavior will get.

“The great unknown is just how much lower can consumer spending go?” Piper Jaffray Cos. (PJC) analyst Jeff Klinefelter told Reuters. “With savings rates at historic lows and constraints on the availability of consumer credit, I just think there’s concern that the perfect storm is brewing.”

According to the Fed, a recession is already under way in the United States. Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 0.5% in the third quarter, and the Fed predicts the economy will continue to contract in the first six months of 2009, and possibly beyond.

Tighter credit standards and lower home prices mean consumers have less of an ability to finance their purchases through debt. And even those with cash to spend are opting to save instead, as the economic outlook continues to dim. Would-be consumers are also scrambling to rebuild savings that were decimated by a bear market that has dragged the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down more than 40% this year.

“We expect to see consumer spending to be flat before inflation,” Gus Faucher, chief U.S. economist with Moody’s Economy.com (MCO), told the Los Angles Times. That means once inflation is factored in, consumer spending will see a sharp decline in 2009, and retail sales will be left to twist in the wind.

Retail Laggards

According to a recent retail outlook report from Fitch Ratings Inc., personal consumption expenditures are projected to decline 1.6% in 2009.

A wave of consolidation and bankruptcies will spread through the retail sector as weaker chains fail and stronger brands shut down underperforming stores. Department stores and specialty stores will be hit especially hard, as consumers cut back on discretionary purchases in favor of staples.

Bankruptcies of stores such as Sharper Image Corp. (OTC: SHRPQ) and Circuit City Stores Inc. (OTC: CCTYQ) are having a negative effect on the sale of gift cards, which stores traditionally have counted on to boost sales after the holiday season. Gift card purchases are tallied when the card is redeemed, not when the card is purchased. In the past, the sale of gift cards have given New Year sales a healthy boost as gift card recipients go shopping after the holidays are over.

But consumers are wary of getting left holding onto worthless cards while bankruptcy courts decide how to divvy up assets.

For the 2007 holiday season, 70% of consumers purchased gift cards. This holiday season, just 40% of consumers are projected to go the gift card route. And that’s going to weigh down sales and profits for the 2009 first quarter.

“I think you will see a six-point drop in sales for those first three months,” C. Britt Beemer, chief executive officer of America’s Research Group and author of “The Customer Rules,” told CRM Magazine.

Troubles Beyond the Big Brick-and Mortar Stores

While the big chains are struggling and grabbing the bulk of the headlines, small business owners are barely getting by. That might not seem like a big deal if the stock market is your focus, but small-businesses are integral to the economy.

According to the Small Business Administration, businesses with less than 500 employees account for almost half of private-sector employment. A recent National Federation of Independent Business survey showed 15% of small business owners anticipate layoffs in 2009, which will put even more strain on an already weak U.S. labor market.

And small business layoffs mean slower sales for big box stores like Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY) and Target Corp. (TGT) as another wave of unemployed workers grapple with lost income.

Online retailers are starting to feel the pinch, too. Web sales have been one of the fastest growing retail sectors for years, but popular sites such as Zappos.com Inc., the No. 1 online shoe retailer, and QVC Inc., which sells online and on television, have each announced layoffs, as well as declining sales.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), the top online retailer, also is struggling. Amazon’s stock is down 55% year-to-date, and the outlook is grim.

“[Amazon is] seeing a slowdown in their business that shouldn’t really shock anybody,” Jeffrey Matthews, a general partner at hedge fund Ram Partners LP in Greenwich, Conn., told Bloomberg. “They sell books. They sell movies. They sell blenders. They don’t sell magic potions or the fountain of youth.”

Retail’s Bright Spots

There are a few retailers that – while they don’t sell magic potions or the fountain of youth – have managed to position themselves as offering more value for the money, which has allowed them to buck this downward spiral in consumer spending have managed to buck dismal consumer spending. And that focus on value will continue in 2009.

The best example of this value exception is the world’s largest retailer: Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT).

“This is Wal-Mart time,” Chief Executive Officer H. Lee Scott Jr. told Wall Street analysts during an Oct. 27 presentation at company headquarters in Bentonville, Ark., BusinessWeek reported. “This is the kind of environment that Sam Walton built this company for.”

The economic slump has found Wal-Mart returning to the basic strategies that the late founder made famous. The retail titan has given up on the brand-name designer strategy of competitors such as Target and Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) to offer rock-bottom prices on hundreds of consumer staples.

That bodes well, as consumers will continue to stretch household budgets and consolidate trips to save on gas.

“It is a great time to be Wal-Mart,” Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates, told Bloomberg News. “It sells everything you need cheap.”

Stores like Wal-Mart, that can capitalize on this new value-seeking behavior will be able to turn a profit even in this bleak retail environment. And those that can’t, will be bought out or disappear.

Source: Retail Sales to Suffer in 2009 as U.S. Consumers Curtail Spending

Editor’s Note: This is the seventh installment of our “Outlook 2009” series, which is detailing the global investing outlook for 2009.

• Detroit-based finance company GMAC has filed to become a bank, a shot at getting a slice of the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program bailout. Private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management LP owns 51% of GMAC. General Motors Corp. (GM) owns the other 49%, Reuters reported.

• Initial jobless claims climbed to 542,000 in the week ended Nov. 15, close to a 26-year high. “The economic contraction appears to be worsening,” Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, told Bloomberg. “The stock markets are plunging, people are retrenching and manufacturing activity is virtually falling off a cliff. The increase in layoffs can only worsen the economic downturn.”

• Ricardo Salinas Pliego, a Mexican media and retail mogul, indicated that he may seek a controlling stake in Circuit City Stores Inc. (CCTYQ), Reuters reported. Pliego already has a 28.1% stake in the company, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protect last week.

• After seven months of negotiations, Banco do Brasil SA, Brazil’s largest government-owned bank, is buying majority control of Banco Nossa Caixa SA for $2.25 billion, “Nossa Caixa has got plenty of liquidity, a decent branch network and judicial deposits of Sao Paulo state which is useful. It’s a good fit and it’s a good asset,” Pedro Fonseca, an analyst at London’s Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Ltd., told Bloomberg.

• Light, sweet crude for December delivery fell nearly 8%, or $4.07, to $49.50 a barrel in afternoon trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, before settling at $49.65 a barrel.

• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) the largest U.S. bank, plans to fire about 10% of its investment banking staff, or about 3,000 employees, as the global economy slides into recession, Bloomberg News reported. JPMorgan also plans to freeze base salaries next year for most employees who earn more than $60,000 to $70,000, annually.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday (Thursday) shed 445 points, or 5.6%, to close at 7,552.29 – its lowest level since March 12, 2003. Meanwhile, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost 54 points, or 6.7%, to close the day at 752.44 – its lowest level since 1997.

Source: Global Investing Roundups Friday, November 21st, 2008

• Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ), the world’s largest maker of personal computers, offered a preview of its fiscal fourth-quarter profits – reporting that it will beat market expectations and raise its fiscal 2009 outlook. “HP is gaining market share in an extremely strong competitive position. They’ve got share gains, combined with very aggressive cost reduction,” Shannon Cross of Cross Research told Reuters.

• Lars Olofsson, Executive Vice President of Nestle SA, has been named Chief Executive Officer of Carrefour S.A., the world’s second-largest retailer. He’ll join the company in at the Carrefour’s next shareholder meeting in January, MarketWatch reported.

• Belgium’s InBev NV officially completed its $52 billion, or $70 a share, acquisition of Anheuser-Busch Cos., Inc. (BUD), as it won its last regulatory approval from China. The combined company will be based in St. Louis and named Anheuser-Busch InBev, Dow Jones reported.

• The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) reported a 31% decline in earnings during its fiscal third quarter ended Nov. 2. Profit declined 31% as well, but the home retailer expected steeper loses in the face of the U.S. housing crisis, Reuters reported.

• Kuwait’s Gulf Bank – the country’s second-largest lender – said Monday that it had lost $1.4 billion (375 million dinars) as a result of trading in derivatives and other financial instruments for customers who subsequently defaulted. The bank also said its board had resigned. To allay investor fears, Gulf Bank announced a plan to double its capital base by issuing 1.25 billion new shares. Investors knew there were losses. But the amount was nearly double the original estimate of $750 million. Trading in Gulf Bank shares remains suspended for their fourth week, Forbes.com reported.

• Mexican retail and media tycoon Ricardo Salinas Pliego could be building a controlling stake in bankrupt electronics retailer Circuit City Stores Inc. (OTC: CCTYQ), Reuters reported. Salinas already owns 28% of the company, having accumulated stock in the open market before and after the retail chain went bankrupt.

• Wholesale prices experienced the biggest one-month drop in more than 60 years in October, The Associated Press reported. Wholesale prices dropped by a record 2.8% last month, as the cost of oil and other raw materials declined.

Source: Global Investing Roundups Wednesday, November 19th, 2008

This from Money Morning:

It used to be that buying a stock was like buying a house. You’d find a house that looked super from the street – and inspect it carefully, before committing to a deal.

But what if you couldn’t get inside? Or even worse, what if the property changed after you carefully inspected it, so that you ended up buying a house with a trashed interior, or a crumbling foundation that made the house risky to live in, and virtually worthless to sell? Or what if a new regulation made the house you spent so much for – and had saved so long for – obsolete overnight, so that you were left with nothing to show for the years of saving and investing, possibly even forcing you and your spouse to forgo your long-dreamed-of retirement? Instead, you both have to keep working.

That’s a lot like what we’re seeing in the U.S. stock market right now.

If the “house” I referred to is an analogy for the stock market, we’re all having to watch as government regulations, elected lawmakers, credit providers, rating agencies and others all work to change the way business is conducted – in many cases, changing the game after consumers (investors) spend all their hard-earned savings for that house (major stock or mutual fund purchase).

If that’s truly the case, it’s understandable if most U.S. investors are left feeling burned – or even worse, helpless – to the point that they’ve decided it’s better to just sit on the sidelines. After all, why participate in a game in which there’s no way to win?

But what if you knew, ahead of time, what marketplace changes to expect? Then you’d be in the driver’s seat – right? You’d know what to anticipate, could craft a profit strategy to follow, and then could just sit back, watching and waiting for the events you’ve already positioned yourself to profit from.

Investment expertR. Shah Gilani – a retired hedge fund manager who’s been chronicling the credit crisis as a Money Morning contributing editor – thinks it’s possible to peer into the future and see the changes that are looming. Gilani, the editor of a new trading service called the Trigger Event Strategist, is predicting a series of so-called “aftershocks” from the financial crisis that investors need to watch for.

These “trigger events” are seismic occurrences that will cause major aftershocks. And the fallout from those aftershocks will bring about marketplace changes that, properly played, will not only help investors dodge unnecessary additional losses – this fallout can actually be exploited for profit, Gilani says.

“It’s like having a meteor hit the earth,” Gilani says. “Because of the seismic-level events that will result from the aftershocks of this meteor strike, there will be all sorts of other trigger events” that will translate into profit opportunities, if properly played.

Some of these will involve going long – that is, actually buying the stock, option or security that’s likely to benefit the most from the trigger event. But this strategy can also involve short selling – identifying the company, stock, fund or security that’s going to be punished the most, and profiting on that decline.

In this story, we’re going to take a look at five key aftershocks investors can look for. These are by no means the only ones Gilani is predicting: But they are five of the most dramatic, and are among the most important ones investors need to be able to understand and interpret. They are:

• The collapse of the investment banks.
• New government regulations.
• The implosion of the commercial real estate sector.
• The transformation – and consolidation – of the insurance industry.
• And the overseas fallout that will force the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to intercede.

Let’s consider each “aftershock” in a little more detail.

• The collapse of the investment-banking sector: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ) has filed for bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (NYSE:MER) will become part of Bank of American Corp. (NYSE:BAC) – guaranteeing itself a dependable source of capital, via bank deposits, but also putting itself under much closer regulatory scrutiny. As a Money Morning investigative report showed, banks are using bailout money to buy other banks, or investment banks, creating some real behemoths.

Investment banks used short-term borrowings, and a lot of leverage, to operate what was an “extraordinarily profitable business,” whose services were needed, Gilani said. Indeed, the need remains and the model wasn’t completely bad – it was the extraordinary use of leverage, combined with some questionable “financial engineering,” that caused the sector to go off the tracks.

“Even now, if you could go back in time and buy Goldman Sachs (GS) at its IPO, would you do it? Of course you would. It’s an extraordinarily profitable business model,” he said. “Not long after this cycle returns, and the [investment banking] players come back onto the field, [you’ll be able to] invest in Citi (C), or you can invest in Wells Fargo (WFC) … but why don’t you come back and redo the old Goldman Sachs model? After all, you remember how profitable it was for such a long time.”

Gilani’s projection: Scrutiny and oversight will increase in the near term, and for some time to come. Look for private equity firms – and hedge funds – to step in as the new providers of the capital dealmakers need to provide needed investment banking services. And don’t be surprised – eventually – to see banks spin out their investment banking arms into standalone units that are better able to maneuver and capitalize on the available marketplace opportunities.

2. New government regulations: The United States must remake itself to once again become the kind of financial market where there’s the right mix of free-market capitalism and nurturing/limiting government regulation – for that’s what created a strong global confidence in the U.S. financial system. Right now, that confidence has been lost, meaning the all-important process of “capital formation” could go elsewhere – to Shanghai, Dubai or London. That would be devastating to any possible U.S. economic rebound, given that financial services is a crucial piece of the country’s $14 trillion economy, and the fact that the sector employs an estimated 6.6 million people.

Gilani’s projection: As this unfolds, there will be opportunities for profit via something he calls “regulatory arbitrage.” But it’s still very early in the game here. Look for a separate Money Morning report on this “aftershock” within the next week.

3. The implosion of the commercial real estate market: Citigroup is cutting 50,000 jobs, Lehman Brothers is in bankruptcy, and consolidations in the financial-services sector are escalating. The bottom line is that these are all possible trigger events leading into the collapse of the commercial real estate sector. This will be “much more problematic than the implosion of the housing sector, as commercial real estate is much harder to move,” Gilani says. “And some of the most expensive real estate anywhere is in the financial-services sector.” Job losses will translate into still more trouble in the commercial slice of the residential real estate market – as expensive apartment buildings and condominiums remain vacant, and unrented. Consumer confidence is shaky, so consumers aren’t spending. That means that retailing is also suffering badly, some chains are closing locations, and some – such as Circuit City Stores Inc. (CCTYQ) –- are even turning to bankruptcy. That’ll leave open spaces in untold numbers of malls and shopping centers

Gilani’s projection:  “We’ll hear a very loud ‘thump’ when this other [credit crisis] shoe falls,” and it won’t be good for the overall economy’s health, he said. But even a seemingly negative aftershock such as this one provides potential profit opportunities.

4. The consolidation of the insurance sector: The collapse of American International Group Inc. (AIG) was just the start of this story, not the end, as many investors believe. Some companies will be swallowed up by others, and some of those successful suitors may actually thrive, making them enticing profit plays. Indeed, with this aftershock, there will be profits to be made on the way down, and more when the rebound comes.

Gilani’s projection: The government can seize banks, allowing the weak ones to fail so long as it guarantees depositors’ money. But it’s a whole different story with an insurance carrier. “If your bank goes out of business, and your money is safe, all it means is that you might have to go elsewhere for a loan. And with fewer competitors, that loan might cost more,” Gilani says. “But if an insurance company goes under, and you don’t have the health insurance, disability insurance, or annuity that you’ve been paying on and counting on, well, that’s devastating.” So devastating, in fact, that the government can’t allow that to happen.

5. The mobilization of the International Monetary Fund (IMF): If there’s one decision that U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. wishes he could have back, it is the decision to allow Lehman to fail. It was a “line-in-the-sand, get-tough decision, and it was a huge mistake,” Gilani believes. With the inherent instability in today’s world – and the potential for terrorist regimes to gain power – the IMF won’t risk drawing a line in the sand with an at-risk country, he said. Instead, the IMF will employ a “good neighbor” strategy, and help all those it can. And that help will come in the form of major capital infusions – $100 million or more. This will stop any possible “contagion,” like the one that emanated from Asia in the late 1990s. And it will prevent some alluring profit plays, Gilani says.

Gilani’s projection: Some recipients will resent the get-tough policies that the IMF requires countries to put in place. But those policies are good, and actually make the country strong in the long run. Some of the countries he expects will be receiving this capital will make for excellent investments. Again, stay tuned.

Final thoughts: By watching for these “aftershocks,” Gilani says “the bottom line is that, as these events unfold, you’ll understand the ramifications – and you’ll have the chance to trade them ahead of the curve, often for significant gains.”

Source: The Five Financial Crisis “Aftershocks” Investors Can Play for Profit

Editors Note: The first installment in an ongoing occasional news series that looks at the anticipated “aftershocks” of the global financial crisis, in some cases even exploring possible profit opportunities.