This time around, silver has failed to match the gains that gold posted in recent months, spawning a widespread believe that silver is poised for a bull run. Such factors as a decline in supply and a weakening U.S. dollar have buttressed that bullish belief. And so has the fact that China’s government is strongly encouraging that country’s residents to buy the white metal.

With Beijing’s plan to inject $587 billion (4 trillion yuan) into China’s economy, and a growing desire to diversify away from the U.S. dollar as its key reserve currency, the Asian giant could increase its reliance on such precious metals as gold and silver – especially if global inflation takes hold.

China’s central bank “could use gold, silver or even a basket of commodities” to diversify away from the dollar, said Money Morning Contributing Editor Peter Krauth, a recognized expert in metals, mining and energy stocks. “It’s impossible to know how they’d go about it.”

This wouldn’t be the first time that silver played an important economic and transactional role in Mainland China. Nearly 2,500 years ago, the Red Dragon was the first to use silver as money. While China invented paper money in the ninth century, silver made its way back several dynasties later as legal tender until the government again prohibited its ownership in 1935.

Now, 75 years later – in the wake of the worst economic downturn since World War II – China has reversed its stance on silver.

In July, state-run China Central Television (CCTV) began a campaign that pushes the purchase of silver bullion as investment opportunity. Analysts say silver has been undervalued in the last few years, and is a good investment for individual investors, according to CCTV.

“The investment threshold [for silver] is not high, and is more suitable for the general public,” said Want Chunli, GM of Beijing’s Caibai Shopping Mall, the first to offer silver as an investment opportunity. “Silver is much cheaper than gold.”

Silver’s investment potential is best measured by the silver-gold ratio, or the price of gold divided by the price of silver. Over the past five years, the ratio has held fairly steady, requiring 55 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. Earlier this year, as gold increased at a faster rate than sliver, the ratio skyrocketed to 70 to 1. It has since corrected to around 60.

Money Morning’s Krauth says that when this relative price ratio does correct, it tends to overshoot.

“I see it going to 50 at least,” Krauth said. “With gold at $1,000, that means silver could trade to $20 or even higher, which is another 20% from [the current price].”

Silver closed Friday at $16.06, while gold closed at $991.10 – implying a silver-to-gold ratio of 61.71.

Krauth sees China returning to an asset-backed currency and says ownership of silver could help the average citizen, even if its central bank is unable to diversify out of the U.S. dollar fast enough.

The more Chinese citizens who own silver, “the stronger the country will be in the eventuality that the world establishes a new world reserve currency backed by (most likely) precious metal(s).”

China’s middle class is estimated at 300 million – roughly equal to the entire U.S. population. And that consumer group in China is growing. As those incomes continue to rise, so, too, will the demand for silver.

China’s use for silver goes beyond jewelry or as a safeguard against inflation. Thanks to the antibacterial properties of silver ions, the white metal is used for everything from socks to wash machines, to name a few.

Silver Supply is Falling

The world once had 2.2 billion ounces of silver above ground, but that figure has plummeted 86% to the current 300 million ounces, according to Addison Wiggin, a best-selling author and an executive publisher at Agora Financial LLC, which, like Money Morning, is part of the Agora Inc. group of companies.

However, above-ground silver accounts for only 25% of the silver produced today, says Money Morning’s Krauth. The other three-quarters is actually a byproduct of such mined base metals as iron, nickel or lead.

When the financial markets nearly collapsed last fall, base-metals producers weren’t spared. As demand forecasts were cut, they quickly throttled back on production, expansion and exploration.

“More has to come from mine production, which can only grow so fast,” Krauth said. “The fact that base-metals producers have cut back a lot hurts silver production because it’s a byproduct of base-metal mining.”

Once the recovery begins – and it’s already under way in China – supplies will be hard to come by as demand for base metals returns, resulting in higher prices for silver.

Gold’s “Lap Dog”

The price of gold doesn’t necessarily affect the price of silver, but when other economic factors such as the U.S. dollar falter, prices traditionally rise at the same pace. But when the global financial crisis took hold last year, the silver-to-gold ratio shot up to 84.

Much like a “nervous little lapdog,” the price of silver follows gold closely, Krauth says.

Since its mid-July low of $12.46 an ounce, silver has rebounded roughly 30% to current levels. But if gold supplies run short, silver may have even more room to run.

When gold hit its all-time high of $1,033.90 per ounce in March 2008, silver prices soared as high as $20.92. But when gold hit its 18-month high earlier this month, silver stayed in check.

“Silver has lagged the rise in gold prices since 2000,” said Money Morning Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson, a former investment banker with more than 25 years’ experience in the global financial markets. “If gold really takes off and the big money finds there isn’t enough of it, there should be spillover into silver.”

Famed commodities investor Jim Rogers also noted the lag in silver and gold’s prices.

“I’m looking at all commodities, but some commodity prices are very depressed,” Rogers told China International Business. “Silver is 70% or so below its historical highs, coffee is 70% or so, as is sugar, while gold is only 10% off its all time high.”

Making the Investment

While buying physical silver is an option for investors, the simplest way to get in, Krauth says, is via the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) exchange-traded fund (ETF). In the three years since its inception, SLV has accumulated $3.91 billion in assets, and the share price – which is the equivalent to one ounce of silver – is up more than 50% this year.

During last fall’s market crash, SLV’s holdings remained nearly flat, around 220 million silver ounces. Since then, it has grown a further 22% to about 280 million ounces.

“That’s a testament to investor commitment,” Krauth said.

Hutchinson calls SLV “quite a good vehicle” over the big silver miners – such as Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp. (NYSE: CDE).

Coeur d’Alene has a large silver deposit in Bolivia. But Hutchinson characterizes Bolivia as a country that he “wouldn’t touch,” thanks chiefly to the Venezuela-like nationalization of the country’s other commodities, including oil and natural gas.

Source: The No. 1 Way to Profit When Silver Upstages Gold

If you can’t farm it, you have to mine it. It is a great message, no matter if you are an investor or an out-of-work cowboy.

Riding through the streets of Alaska’s ever-wet capital, you see all sorts of bumper stickers. There are three main categories – fishing, mining and Sarah Palin.

It is the miners getting all of the attention this week.

There are several reasons the world’s mining industry is opening a big ‘ole bottle of bubbly, but none more poignant than the fact that America is shelling out debt faster than a hot-rod blackjack dealer unloading his deck.

As Uncle Sam goes “all in,” the folks paying for Washington’s lavish lifestyle are getting nervous. For proof, I need just one set of numbers.

In July, foreign purchasers bought just $15.3 billion more debt than they sold. In June, that number was $90.7 billion. If the trend continues (and you know it will), we could be in serious trouble.

Here come the interest rates

With an all-out disdain for American debt, countries like China and Russia are finding other ways to convert their greenbacks into something more useful. The commodities market has been the first vehicle of choice.

The share price of just about every major mining company is all the proof we need.

Every day, I compile a list of the session’s big winners and losers. I study them, look for the cause of the volatility and determine how to profit from the action. Lately, my winners list has been filled with the folks pulling minerals from the ground.

One player getting plenty of attention from the bulls is Hecla Mining (NYSE:HL).

So far this month, the silver, gold, lead and zinc miner has watched its Street value increase by more than 60%. Shares are up by over 6% today as gold prices continue their exploration above the critical $1,000 level.

As the markets worry more and more about the notion of runaway inflation and a weakening greenback, gold miners like Hecla will continue to increase in value.

Shares are approaching the $5 mark today, but a $10 quote by spring is not out of the question.

Another double-digit commodity winner comes from Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC). If you are a Hot Stock Confidential subscriber, you are familiar with this oil and gas producer’s winning ways.

Since I recommended buying shares of the company back in May, share price has jumped by over 30%.

The gains continue today as natural gas prices surge above the $3.50 level and as word spreads about the company’s latest deepwater discovery off of Africa’s western coast. The news makes Anadarko a major player in the region and the markets are rewarding the company in kind.

Progress in action

Finally, after spending a week in Juneau, I could not write a piece about the mining industry and not mention Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE:CDE), the owner of the ever-disputed Kensington Mine.

Over the past week, I had the opportunity to see the mine, talk with some of its employees and witness the hustle and bustle taking place as the site finally goes into action.

With metal prices on the rise, the mine could not have better timing. When the first minerals are pulled from the ground early next year, the company will get a hefty price for its product.

It is no wonder shares of the company are up by more than 100% in the last ninety days.

No matter your political slant or your views of the mining industry, there is absolutely no room to deny the fundamental value of tangible assets like commodities.

As the world’s wealth and power transfers from one continent to another, the rocks buried beneath the earth’s surface will be the only reliable asset.

If I were you, I would get my hands on some.

Source: Commodities Market: Dig Your Way to Riches

Gold’s been going up, knocking at the $1,000-an-ounce gate. Why exactly I can’t tell you… its principal bullish factor, inflation, being vortually non-existent in today’s deflationary market.

That leaves the fear of reckless U.S. Congress wrecking the dollar with huge new debt loads… and of an Administration that seems dead-set on crippling U.S. economic competitiveness for decades to come.

Valid fears, indeed, fueled by every redistributionist soundbyte slopping out of Washington.

Silver, too, has been gaining steadily. Our Hot Stock Confidential silver mining play Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp. (NYSE: CDE) is up 23%, Silver Wheaton (NYSE:SLW) is up 18%, and — after a horrendous 40%-drop ofer our May recommendation — Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) has clawed back to a gain over 2%.

(HSC Members who used the dip to buy, as we kept recommending in our weekly updates, have almost doubled their money since May.)

We think there’s plenty more short-term potential. But despite my bullish long-term view on silver, the high volatility in the precious metals markets makes me inclined to take profits in the double-digit range, rather than hang on for the heftier triple-digit gains I foresee in the long term.

Source: Midas touch: Rising Gold Prices Guide Coeur d’Alene Mines, Silver Wheaton, Hecla Mining to Strong Gains

That’s why the greatest inflation fighter in the world is under stress. Of course, we’re talking about gold. Gold is– and always has been– the safest place to put your cash. It has been traded as currency, stockpiled to backup paper money (think Fort Knox), and hedge spend-happy governments. Today, its hedging attribute is important.

Over the past few months, it’s become more and more difficult to buy physical gold. Even if you do locate it, what you actually pay is quite a bit more than its spot price.

In many cases, these buyers were willing to spend up to 25% more for gold than its value. That’s like your broker taking a quarter for every $1 share you buy.

So, if gold is too expensive, where can investors turn? Well, there’s always gold’s little brother…

Silver is not commonly thought of as an inflationary hedging tool. That is, until times get tough. And I don’t think you can find too many times tougher than right now.

Silver is often referred to as “the poor man’s gold”. We call it opportunity. You see, during the 1978-1980 precious metals rally, silver showed up late. Almost all of the large gains in silver came in the last few months.

We see the same events unfolding this time around. As we pointed out in the past, gold has always traded for about 16 times as much as silver, until the past few decades. Currently, the ratio sits around 71. When this number falls, silver booms.

Macroeconomics and ratios aside, there is one final reason we expect an enormous silver rally…

About 3 out of every 5 ounces of silver come from base metal mines. Roughly 28% of all silver comes from copper mines and another 32% comes from lead/zinc mines. Both of these sources are decreasing — and in some cases, completely shutting down — production due to the overall commodity market.

Only 10% of all silver comes from gold mines, which leaves just 30% of the total market to pure silver plays like Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp. (NYSE:CDE), Hecla Mining (NYSE:HL), and Pan American Silver (NASDAQ:PAAS). These serious cuts in production, gives us pure silver investors the inside track to cornering the silver market.

We are seeing a perfect storm brewing in the silver market. If you get in now, you might just beat the rush…

Sincerely,

Jim Nelson

Source: How You Can Win with Silver

Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC)went to the market hat in hand to raise up to $360.5 million by issuing 20.9 million shares at $17.25. Shopping season for Kinross perhaps? Kinross ended the day down C$1.11 at C$22 even.

Speaking of shopping, Franco-Nevada Corp. has agreed to acquire from Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE:CDE)a 50-per-cent gold royalty stream in the Palmarejo silver and gold project in Mexico. The price tag is a cool $80-million. Franco-Nevada ended the day up C$1.52 at C$21.50.

Centamin Egypt is raising C$60 million by issuing 92 million shares at C$0.65 each. The proceeds will be used to advance its 9 million ounce Sukari gold project in Egypt. The company closed at C$0.67 for a C$0.07 loss.

Shares of East Asia Minerals added C$0.035 to close at C$0.265 after reporting rock saw sample results from its Miwah gold project in Indonesia. Highlights included 20 metres running 14 grams gold per tonne.

Weakness in the financial sector once again ruled the trading session and that sparked another bout of risk aversion from investors. We will see what Thursday trading has in store.

Source: Resource Stock Roundup: Thursday, January 22nd, 2009