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Hot Stocks: Up 100%, Apple’s Shares May Still Have Room to Run

Bob Blandeburgo — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 19:00:07 +0000

Shares of Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) have gained 100% since the start of the year, and with the likely release of an innovative “tablet” computer and the pending debut of its wildly popular iPhone in China both in the offing, the company’s stock could still find some room to run.

Shares in the Cupertino, Calif.-based company are at their highest level since August 2008, thanks to a successive string of upbeat earnings reports, a near-$30 billion cash reserve and recession-defying sales of its products.

The iPhone alone sold 5.2 million units in the second quarter, compared to 717,000 the year before, and its Macintosh computers, which still have a miniscule share compared to Windows-based PCs, are gaining momentum.

Several market research firms, including Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) and Barclays PLC (NYSE ADR: BCS), now have price targets for Apple stock that exceed $200 a share.

Apple’s shares closed Friday at $170.05, up 60 cents, or 0.35%, each. An advance to $200 would represent a gain of about 18% from current levels.

Sales of Apple’s now-ubiquitous iPod have slowed, but Apple executives anticipated that would be the case, as sales of its music-playing iPhone and iPod Touch grow. Both of those devices have access to thousands of applications sold in the App Store.

A tablet computer from Apple, which has been a hot news topic in the tech world since last spring, moved closer to reality last week. The Wall Street Journal reported that since returning from leave to undergo aliver transplant, Apple Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs has devoted almost all of his time to this specific device.

Pundits have already dubbed the gadget the “MacBook Tablet” or “iTablet,” and executives believe it will have positive implications for media going forward.

“It’s a portable entertainment device,” one entertainment executive toldThe Financial Times. “It’s going to be fabulous for watching movies.”

Recording executives say Apple plans on using the large screen for interactive booklets and liner notes that typically accompany compact discs. And book publishers could view the tablet as an alternative to Amazon.com Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) popular Kindle or Sony Corp.’s (NYSE ADR: SNE) Reader in the growing e-book market.

“It would be a color, flat-panel TV to the old-fashioned, black-and-white TV of the Kindle,” one book executive told the FT.

Hollywood and video game executives haven’t been briefed on the tablet, but both have shown optimism for it. A large selection of movies and games are already available for the iPod, iPod Touch and iPhone.

Apple is one of the most secretive companies in Silicon Valley. Its iPhone 3G S, which sold 1 million units in its first weekend, wasn’t announced until a few days before its release. By contrast, one of its primary competitors Palm Inc.’s (NASDAQ: PALM) Pre smartphone, released a few weeks before the 3G S in June, was first announced in January at the Consumer Electronics Show. Apple is aiming for a September or October launch of the tablet, The FT said.

While tablet computers are nothing new – they first debuted in the early part of this decade – they only comprise 1.4% of the global portable market, The Journal said. Toshiba Corp., Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE:HPQ) and Fujitsu Ltd. (OTC ADR: FJTSY) all attempted to sell tablets, but ultimately the devices proved to be too cost-prohibitive for consumers.

Despite the worst economic downturn since World War II, Apple is having no trouble convincing consumers to buy iPhones with pricey plans and more expensive Macs. Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Yair Reiner told the FT he expects Apple’s tablet to cost between $600 and $1,000, the range for many Windows-based laptops today.

The tablet is considered by analysts to be Apple’s answer to popularnetbooks, which are smaller laptop PCs designed for navigating the Internet. They usually cost between $200 and $400. CEO Jobs and others in the Apple brass ruled out developing a netbook in a conference call last fall.

“We don’t know how to make a $500 computer that’s not a piece of junk,” Jobs said at the time.

The iPhone Meets the Red Dragon

Apple, whose Mac computers have played second fiddle to personal computers since 1984, found mainstream success in the gadget realm starting in 2002 when it debuted the iPod. To date, roughly 300 million iPods have been sold since 2002. In 2007, Apple debuted the iPhone, which has sold more than 26 million units.

The iPhone will make its debut in mainland China in the fourth quarter with state-owned China Unicom Ltd. (NYSE ADR: CHU) having cut a deal to act as the exclusive carrier for three years. Like AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) in the United States, Unicom will not share revenue with Apple. Instead, it will offer a subsidy to consumers to lower the price, which is expected have a similar $99 to $299 range with two-year service contracts.

Unicom, which is rolling out its third-generation network (3G), enabling wireless video and high-speed Internet navigation, has 141 million wireless users. Unicom will be competing with an estimated 1.5 million gray market iPhones, The Journal reports, citing research firm BDA China Ltd. Unicom, which just reported a 45% drop in profit, is counting on Apple’s iPhone to gain share over market leader China Mobile Ltd. (NYSE: CHL), which has over three times Unicom’s subscribers.

The overall Chinese mobile market, which has 687 million subscribers – more than twice the population of the United States – is highly competitive. Several phones running Google Inc.’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android operating system are due by year’s end, and China Telecom Ltd. (NYSE ADR: CHA) is in talks with BlackBerry maker Research in Motion Ltd. (Nasdaq: RIMM) and Palm to bring those phones to the world’s fastest-growing major market.

“It’s essential for Apple to be in China; it’s a huge market,” CIMB Securities Ltd. Deputy Head of Research Bertram Lai told Bloomberg News. The iPhone “is not just the premium product, it’s an aspirational product,” he said.

Source: Hot Stocks: Up 100%, Apple’s Shares May Still Have Room to Run

J. Christoph Amberger Says China Is a Potential Train Wreck

Contrarian Profits — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 15:38:31 +0000

On Tuesday, we published a post by Taipan Daily editor Justice Litle, Why the China Bears Are Wrong.

Justice gave six reasons why China is a buy now. These included the recent correction in crude oil prices, China’s high level of personal savings and the country’s massive foreign reserves.

Today’s Financial News editor J. Christoph Amberger says Justice is wrong about China. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have plummeted since the opening of the Beijing games. J. Christoph says China now looks more like Japan in the ’90s than a strong buying opportunity…

Olympic medal counts look different to Americans than they look to the rest of the world. In the US, all medals count equally. The team with the most gold, silver, and bronze medals “wins” in the standings. Elsewhere, it’s just the number of gold medals that determines who leads the pack. Which may explain why China feels its superiority complex validated with 17 gold medals (vs. the United States’ 10)… while Americans really couldn’t care less about leading with 29 (vs. 27) total medals.

Still, for a country that just put on the most expensive halftime show ever, with lip-syncing girls, computer-generated fireworks, and thousands of young men in light-studded green “fruit suits” (as my teenage son called their skintight garbs), the stock market is sure looking like the last flea-bitten chihuahua in the pantry of a Korean short-order cook.

If China is leading in the medals count, the fruit-suit optimism isn’t filtering through to investors. Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange have simply plummeted since the August 8 side show. On Wednesday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange closed at 2,470 points, falling 135 points to close at a 20 month low after touching an even lower intra-day low of 2,372. The Shenzhen exchange slumped more than 6% to close at 698 points.

Shanghai set an all-time record last October at 6,092. That’s a drop of 3,720 points in ten months – a loss of 61% at today’s lows.

The last time I saw an index plummet like this was 1990, after Tokyo’s Nikkei had posted a record high at 38,912. The only difference: It took the Nikkei fully five years, until April 1995, to fall by this amount. China managed this in just 10 months.

There are now accusations that the government of causing the problem by misleading traders. (I’m glad this very Western tradition has finally made it to China…)

But here’s the odd part: There are some Western stock gurus who are not worried. In fact, one just came up with six reasons to buy China.

Let me summarize:

Reason to Buy China #1: The Silly Season Is Over. Now that the frenzy has subsided, real values are starting to show up again. The hot money has burned itself out, providing opportunities for those who see longer-term value and aren’t out to just flip a quick buck.

Reason to Buy China #2: Oil Is Coming Down. With oil backing off, China and India can breathe a little easier. The fear that high-priced oil might kill the Asian miracle is lifting. That gives them more time to tap alternative energy solutions and build economic strength at home.

Reason to Buy China #3: The Locals Are Optimistic. A recent survey from the Pew Research Center shows that most Chinese feel positive about where their country is headed. According to the survey, 86% are “content with the country’s direction.” (That’s up from just 25% six years ago.)

Reason to Buy China #4: The Growth Is Still There. China moves up the quality food chain. As China gets better at enforcing intellectual property laws, its high-tech skills will only increase… and profit margins, too.

Reason to Buy China #5: Personal Savings and Domestic Demand. Perhaps even more impressive than China’s long-term growth rate is the personal savings rate.

Reason to Buy China #6: Huge Foreign Reserves. China has somewhere between $2.3 trillion and $2.4 trillion in excess reserves.

Let me respond why I am hesitant to wear that fruit suit of optimism:

1) The “silly season” is over. If China managed to double and double again in two years on that supposedly “bad” hot money… where is the money coming from that will power the Shanghai to recover even 20%? Japan’s Nikkei has a cautionary tale to tell about markets that see the hot money born out. For the Nikkei, that meant a low of 7,831 in April 2003 – 80% below the record high. For the Shanghai, that would mean a level of 1,218 – another 50% drop. (Given the accelerated failure rate the Chinese, we could see this level within the next 16 months!)

2) Oil may be coming down, relieving some pressure on wafer-thin Chinese margins. But labor cost – China’s biggest competitive edge – is going up. So are environmental regulations… healthcare cost (they say breathing the air in Chinese cities is the equivalent of smoking 3 packs of cigarettes a day)… and unemployment.

3) Local optimism. May I point out that the people are fickle. Consumer confidence is the least reliable indicator of an economy’s health. More importantly: investors are chafing with just over 60% losses under their belts… and more to come!

4) Growth will be there as long as Americans and Europeans place orders. Recession, anyone? Some analysts like to argue that the Asian economies have “decoupled” from the West. Someone must have forgotten to tell Japan…

5) Personal savings and domestic demand. The latter may be there… and is usually a prelude to the destruction of the former. Plus, those personal savings have taken a beating since Chinese citizens transferred their renminbis from their passport savings to their stock brokers by the billion each week last year. Add in inflation and tally it all up once you account for two months of forced idling of factories and work forces, and an overall low average income of just $2,025 a year (in 2006)… and those personal savings factor in far less than you might think.

6) Huge foreign reserves may be more than made up by huge non-performing and “special interest” loans… a looming real estate crash… and of course the potential for the predicted devaluation of these reserves, most of which are kept in dollars. (May I also point out that Japan’s incredible foreign reserves did not help it one bit from 1990 to 2005.)

In short: China is a potential train wreck in the making! Analysts who predict Armageddon for America based on a 20% drop in the Dow and discount a 60% drop in the Shanghai Stock Exchange may just have sand in their slide rules. Those who buy wholesome into official Chinese numbers and believe the U.S. government manipulates GDP numbers may not do their readers a favor.

The big Chinese companies that trade as ADRs, such as China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (NYSE:LFC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (NYSE:SNP), and China Telecom Corporation Limited (NYSE:CHA) have declined at a far less precipitous clip than their home markets.

Chinese solar stocks such as LDK Solar Co. (NYSE:LDK), China Sunergy Co. (NASDAQ:CSUN), and ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE:SOL) have actually risen in price as the Shanghai Exchange collapsed. Then again, they move with their global industries… not with China.

But while I am getting more bearish on China’s medium- to long-term prospects by the day, I think there are a small number of Darn Good Stocks you can make some serious money with.

P.S. J. Christoph says Today’s Financial News’ new trading service, Hot Stock Confidential, is currently pursuing a small company with key technology set to profit from big demand in China. This keystone technology will reach deep into China’s interior – tapping into its rural market and creating wealth on a scale like never before. It has been earning between $80-$100 million a year on total revenues of $450-$550 million in revenue.

The company has just come back up from a bit of a dip, and is charging forward with gains of 8% in a day. Hot Stock Confidential is already up 20% over the recommended entry price. But you still can buy it for less than five bucks. Read on here for more more details on how to profit from this China success story.

Phase One of China’s Telecom Overhaul: China Unicom, China Telecom Corp. and China Netcom Swap Assets

Mike Caggeso — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 20:05:34 +0000

Wasting no time with China’s government-executed telecom restructuring, telecommunications giant China Unicom Ltd. (ADR: CHU) agreed to sell the smaller of its two wireless networks to fixed-line titan China Telecom Corp. Ltd. (ADR: CHA) for nearly $16 billion.

Unicom will also pay $24 billion to take over fixed-line operator China Netcom Group Corp. Ltd. (ADR: CN) by issuing more than 10 billion new shares, Reuters reported.

These asset swaps are the first since the government announced a little over a week ago that the country would undergo a high-profile industry overhaul that will meld China’s six main wireless providers into just three – China Telecom, China Netcom and China Mobile Ltd. (ADR: CHL).

The reason: China needs to catch up with the rest of the world in adopting third-generation, or 3G, wireless services that quicken increasingly popular Internet services such as music and video downloading.

A day before the deal’s announcement, China’s state-controlled Xinhua news agency reported that China Mobile – the world’s fourth-largest company and largest mobile phone company – said it would take over China Tietong Telecommunications Corp. for an undisclosed amount.

“The government is the owner of all the players and the umpire and determines the playing field,” Duncan Clark of Beijing-based consultant group BDA told Reuters. “This is the first step toward 3G, but does it mean 3G will come sooner? That remains to be seen.”

Industry analysts expect each of the giant telecom companies to employ different versions of 3G technologies, The Wall Street Journal reported. One of those will include China’s own 3G standard, called TD-SCDMA.

But other 3G providers such as Paris-based Alcatel-Lucent (ADR: ALU), China’s Huawei Technologies Co. and Ericsson Telefon AB LM are hoping for a shot at what could be windfall profits via contracts with China’s new telecom kings.

“This restructuring is key to a 3G rollout, and there will be lots of opportunities for domestic and foreign equipment providers,” Ian McGuinn, managing director for JL McGregor & Co., a China-focused consulting company, told The Wall Street Journal.

Source: Phase One of China’s Telecom Overhaul: China Unicom, China Telecom

In Major Shakeup, China’s Govt. Melds Six Largest Telecoms into Three

Mike Caggeso — Wed, 28 May 2008 12:46:21 +0000

There are three new kings in China’s $100 billion-plus telecom kingdom: China Telecom Corp. Ltd. (ADR: CHA), China Network Communications Group Corp. Ltd. (ADR: CN) and China Mobile Ltd. (ADR: CHL).

Not surprisingly, all are state controlled.

But now that the first two have more assets, the up-to-now dominant China Mobile faces increased competition and a more-level playing field.

The government of China announced this major shakeup in the country’s burgeoning telecommunication industry over the weekend. It’s a massive restructuring that’ll fold the country’s top six telecom companies into three, and possibly open the way to windfall profits for wireless-equipment providers.

“Everyone has been waiting for it for over three years and now it is here,” Kelvin Ho, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Nomura International PLC, told Bloomberg News of the reorganization plan. “Creating three full-service phone companies offering both fixed and mobile services will help the fixed-line phone companies.”

Under the plan, fixed-line provider China Telecom will acquire one of China United Telecommunications Corp.’s two wireless networks and also China Satellite Communications Corp., The Wall Street Journal reported. China United is the parent company of China Unicom Ltd. (ADR: CHU).

Then, China United’s remaining wireless network will merge with China Network Communications Group, parent company of China Netcom Group Corp. Ltd. (ADR: CN).

Financial terms weren’t released.

A day before the plan’s announcement, China’s state-controlled Xinhua news agency reported that China Mobile Ltd. – the world’s fourth-largest company and largest mobile phone company – will take over China Tietong Telecommunications Corp. for an undisclosed amount.

Many investors hung up on China Mobile, which saw its shares take an 8.2% shellacking on Monday, the biggest decline in two months, following the announcement of the government plan.

Three Companies Providing “3G”

Though the arrangements of this entanglement are complicated – and without a timeline for completion – the impetus is simple: China needs to catch up with the rest of the world in adopting third-generation, or 3G, wireless services that quicken increasingly popular Internet uses such as music and video downloading.

The restructuring will also combine many phone and Internet services into one bill for many households.

And 3G providers such as Paris-based Alcatel-Lucent (ADR: ALU), China’s Huawei Technologies Co. and Ericsson Telefon AB LM are lining up for contracts.

In fact, the annual salary of Alcatel-Lucent’s Chief Executive Patricia Russo may be largely determined by how well the company capitalizes on this and other opportunities, Reuters reported. Alcatel-Lucent’s New York shares gained 4.1% yesterday (Tuesday), the first day of trading in the U.S. market since the weekend announcement in China.

Industry analysts expect each of the giant telecom companies to employ different versions of 3G technologies, The Wall Street Journal reported. One of those will include China’s own 3G standard, called TD-SCDMA.

Pressure of the Mobile Phone Industry

The bruising competition in the global telecom market only adds to the companies’ eagerness to expand China’s mobile-phone market, which at more than 465 million users is larger than the combined populations of the United States, Japan…and, for good measure, the 48-person population of the Pitcairn Islands.

In China, China Mobile controls about 68% of the domestic mobile-phone market, while China Unicom has most of the rest. China Mobile has nearly 400 million customers total, a figure that combines its Internet, mobile-phone and fixed-line services.

Before this deal, China Mobile was leading the worldwide shift away from fixed-line phone service and into mobile multimedia. It had been steadily stealing subscribers away from China’s fixed-line titan China Telecom. And its penetration into new and rural markets – with its mobile newspapers service in tow – is tapping new customers that neither telecom company previously had been able to reach.

Now, customers have half the number of companies to choose from, but the three left standing are leaner. The mobile-phone market is China Mobile’s bread and butter, and these measures could likely induce potential mobile-phone customers to feel satisfied with combined Internet and fixed-line services.

Source: In Major Shakeup, China’s Govt. Melds Six Largest Telecoms into Three