China imported record amounts of copper and iron ore in April as its mammoth stimulus program stoked its foundries and mills.  But the nation’s exports remained weak, leaving some to wonder how much longer the country can keep its economic fires lit without an increase in global consumption.

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How bad is it going to get? Our reference point is the 1930’s and the Great Depression. But people in Russia and Asia only have to recall events of a little more than a decade ago. The “Asian Contagion” actually began in Russia in 1998 when the country defaulted on its national debt. The crisis then hit Thailand and within a year had spread to all of Asia with a few exceptions (Malaysia and China being the main ones).

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