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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; China Railway Construction Corp Ltd.</title>
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		<title>Merrill Lynch: Emerging Market Infrastructure Spending Will Surge 80% in the Next 3 Years</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/merrill-lynch-emerging-market-infrastructure-spending-will-surge-80-in-the-next-3-years/3617</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Jul 2008 18:56:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason Simpkins</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BHP]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[MER]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/merrill-lynch-emerging-market-infrastructure-spending-will-surge-80-in-the-next-3-years/3617</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p> Merrill Lynch &#38; Co. Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=mer&#38;hl=en" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="mer&#38;hl=en_1">MER</a>) has raised its annual infrastructure-spending estimate for emerging markets by 80%, as developing countries try to keep pace with fast-growing economies and large cash reserves, <em>BusinessWeek</em> reported.</p>
<p>Investment in infrastructure, which the firm sees as the long-term solution to inflation, will rise from $1.25 trillion to $2.25 trillion annually over the next three years. And China, the Middle East, and Russia will account for 70% of infrastructure spending.</p>
<p>The report from Merrill Lynch pointed out that Xstrata PLC  (OTC: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=PINK%3AXSRAY" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="PINK%3AXSRAY_1">XSRAY</a>)  recently predicted emerging markets would spend $22 trillion on infrastructure  in the next 10 years.</p>
<p>“That estimate is among the highest we’ve seen,” the report noted, “with an implied run rate of $6.6 trillion over the next three&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p> Merrill Lynch &amp; Co. Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=mer&amp;hl=en" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="mer&amp;hl=en_1">MER</a>) has raised its annual infrastructure-spending estimate for emerging markets by 80%, as developing countries try to keep pace with fast-growing economies and large cash reserves, <em>BusinessWeek</em> reported.<span id="more-3617"></span></p>
<p>Investment in infrastructure, which the firm sees as the long-term solution to inflation, will rise from $1.25 trillion to $2.25 trillion annually over the next three years. And China, the Middle East, and Russia will account for 70% of infrastructure spending.</p>
<p>The report from Merrill Lynch pointed out that Xstrata PLC  (OTC: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=PINK%3AXSRAY" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="PINK%3AXSRAY_1">XSRAY</a>)  recently predicted emerging markets would spend $22 trillion on infrastructure  in the next 10 years.</p>
<p>“That estimate is among the highest we’ve seen,” the report noted, “with an implied run rate of $6.6 trillion over the next three years.”</p>
<p><strong>Estimated Infrastructure Spending For the Next Three Years</strong></p>
<table align="left" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="354">
<tr>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="105"><strong>Region</strong></td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="104">
<p align="center"><strong>New Estimate</strong></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="145">
<p align="center"><strong>Previous Estimate</strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">China</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">
<p align="center">$725 Billion</p>
</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">
<p align="center">$400 Billion</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">Middle East</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">
<p align="center">$400 Billion</p>
</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">
<p align="center">$225 Billion</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">Brazil</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">
<p align="center">$225 Billion</p>
</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">
<p align="center">$100 Billion</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">Russia</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">
<p align="center">$325 Billion</p>
</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">
<p align="center">$195 Billion</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">India</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">
<p align="center">$240 Billion</p>
</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">
<p align="center">$110 Billion</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">Turkey</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">
<p align="center">$65 Billion</p>
</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">
<p align="center">$50 Billion</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">
<h4>Source:    Merrill Lynch, <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Money Morning</a> Research</h4>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p>China and the Gulf states, each with enormous cash reserves from trade surpluses, will be the two leading infrastructure investors according to Merrill Lynch.</p>
<p><strong>China’s $78 Billion Reconstruction</strong></p>
<p>Infrastructure spending in China hit the ground running in the past few years as the nation prepared to host the 2008 Summer Olympic Games. Beijing has already spent $40 billion on infrastructure, including a new airport terminal and subway lines, in preparation.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the Olympic torch relay, which was meant to signify the country’s readiness for the Games, paused from May 19 to May 21, to mourn those killed in the massive earthquake.</p>
<p>Now, Beijing will be footing the bill for another massive infrastructure push &#8211; this time to rebuild much of the country, which will cost an estimated $78 billion. Of course, Chinese infrastructure companies are up to the task and well prepared for a sharp rise in demand for their products and services.</p>
<p>“<a href="http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/12/business/rebuild.php" onclick="s_objectID=">It’s a sad  thing</a>,” Ma Chunji, the head of Sinotruk, the nation’s top truck  manufacturer told the <strong><em>International Herald Tribune</em></strong>. “But it will  stimulate demand.”</p>
<p>“Beijing planned originally to readjust the speed of growth and compress the size of infrastructure projects, and that would have affected us,” he added. “Now we face a positive.”</p>
<p>Obvious beneficiaries of the rebuilding effort include vehicle makers like Sinotruk, as well as cement and steel producers.  In fact, Chinese industrial-production output rose 16% in May from a year earlier after gaining 15.7% in April, according to the nation’s statistics bureau.</p>
<p><a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=5810097" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?cid="5810097_1">Baosteel Group Corp.</a>, China’s leading steel producer was a big reason for the increase as it stepped up production of many specialized steel products for the rebuilding effort.</p>
<p>Baosteel <a href="http://steelguru.com/news/index/2008/07/03/NTMzNzA%3D/Baosteel_produces_stainless_steel_or_quake_relief_work.html" onclick="s_objectID=">finished  its second batch of medical stainless steel on June 30th</a>. So far, the company has produced a total of 33 metric tons of the specialized steel to be used in quake relief work and sent to relevant medical apparatus plants.  Baosteel <a href="http://steelguru.com/news/index/2008/06/13/NTAzNjg%3D/Baosteel_to_construct_PPGI_houses_in_Dujiangyan.html" onclick="s_objectID=">will  also construct 10,000 square meters of buildings of color coated steel sheet  for the city of Dujiangyan</a>.</p>
<p>Beijing may also use the reconstruction effort as a chance to upgrade many of the country’s antiquated transportation and communications systems.</p>
<p>“Traditional communication systems have been seriously damaged in the earthquake, making us rethink the whole communications system,” Fok Tung Ling, chairman of the wireless equipment vendor Comba told the <strong><em>International  Herald Tribune</em></strong>.</p>
<p>Xi Guohua, a senior industry regulator told the <strong><em>IHT</em></strong> that authorities are working on “combining the sky and earth,” building a  wireless system with optical cable.</p>
<p>Also, a railway-building boom, similar to the one that took place in the United States in the 19th century, could arrive sooner rather than later.</p>
<p>That’s welcomed news to <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=SHA%3A601390" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="SHA%3A601390_1">China Railway Group  Ltd.</a> and <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=SHA%3A601186&amp;hl=en" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="SHA%3A601186&amp;hl=en_1">China  Railway Construction Corp Ltd.</a>, which will be among the biggest winners,  according to <strong><em>Barron’s</em></strong>.</p>
<p><a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUKN0636093820080706" onclick="s_objectID=">Total  investment in China’s railway sector is soon expected to reach $200 billion</a>, with both companies well positioned for a big piece of the new business, as they control approximately 85% of China’s railway infrastructure market, <strong><em>Barron’s</em></strong> said.</p>
<h3>Middle East Oil Oasis</h3>
<p>In 2007, the six nations of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Cooperation_Council" onclick="s_objectID=">Gulf Cooperation  Council</a> &#8211; Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Omar, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates &#8211; earned $381 billion from oil exports and that was before oil prices rocketed up to over $145 per barrel before dropping back to its current level of $135 per barrel.</p>
<p>The cumulative earnings of the Gulf States will reach into  the trillions if oil remains over $100 for several more years.</p>
<p>There’s already an estimated $2.4 trillion in construction projects either underway or under development in GCC countries. And $1.4 trillion of that is earmarked for projects in civil construction.</p>
<p>Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer and exporter has put its petrodollars to work, embarking on a massive $460 billion construction program. According to the National Commercial Bank (NCB), Saudi Arabia has formally announced 576 separate projects, 70% of which are already well underway.</p>
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