John Crooks says currencies dependent on commodities are in for a very tough 2009. He says weak global demand and a marked slowdown in China will keep commodity prices low. And that’s bad news for resource-rich Australia. John says a looming recession, widening trade deficit and interest rate cuts will send the Aussie dollar plummeting this year.
China is not immune to this global recession, says John Crooks. And as the ‘world’s manufacturing plant’ stumbles, it will take down many others with it. Emerging economies that relied on China buying raw materials will be hit hardest. And any developed nation with exposure to these markets will be dragged down too.
While China made headlines with a historic interest rate cut this week, the World Bank weighed in with a gloomy prediction about China that received scant coverage. For emerging-market investors who missed the story, the World Bank’s assessment of China’s economic performance in 2009 could reshape their strategy for portfolio allocation.