I call them the “zombies,” the institutions being propped up by government bailouts. Companies like Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC), General Motors Corp., Chrysler LLC, etc. On an operating level, these walking dead are sucking the life out of the recovery.

Unlike in previous downturns, huge resources have been devoted to propping up entities that should have been taken out of the picture.

Of course, it’s easy to avoid zombies directly. No one is going to force you to take a position in GM. But if you really want to know where to look for the bargains – for companies that have the greatest potential for serious growth in real numbers and real markets – you need to look for what I call “zombie-free zones.”

Unfortunately, the United States and the United Kingdom are not “zombie-free” zones – and thus offer the worst hunting ground available right now.

If you’re looking for something solid, there are only three places to aim your portfolio. In fact, my top three picks are…

Germany, Korea, and Canada.  All have an abundance of companies you can invest in with at least a good chance of not being forced to compete with the undead.

The Problem with Zombies

You see, the problem with zombie banks and companies is that they soak up resources that should be devoted to living banks and companies, while providing unfair competition that makes their competitors unsound.

It’s difficult to see this effect at the moment, because the U.S. Federal Reserve is propping up the banking sector. It’s much clearer in the automobile sector, where the zombies GM and Chrysler make it more difficult for Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) to compete. There’s no question that the continued existence of Chrysler after its first non-bankruptcy in 1979 drastically weakened Ford in the 1980s and 1990s.

There’s the effect on wages too. The United Auto Workers (UAW) union is a huge supporter of the GM and Chrysler rescues, partly because they keep UAW members employed at above-market wage rates. One certainly can sympathize with the great many American autoworkers that have lost their jobs, but by keeping the sector over-employed, the government is driving up wages and hurting businesses – particularly Ford, the only member of Detroit’s “Big Three” to not ask for a bailout.

The same effect can be seen in the banking sector. The bonus pool at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is partly inflated by the continued employment of all the Citibankers who should have lost their jobs. Since banking pay scales got over-inflated during the bubble, it is reasonable now for them to come back down to earth, but that’s not going to happen while banks are in their current undead state.

Turning to the international market, it is immediately clear that Britain has the same problem as the United States, only on a larger scale. Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (NYSE ADR: RBS) and Lloyds Banking Group PLC (NYSE: LYG), two of Britain’s largest banks have been kept open by the government. (Though, to be fair, Lloyds only got in trouble because the government made it acquire another failing bank, HBOS.)

Financial services is a huge part of Britain’s economy, which needs to diversify, but it won’t be able to diversify if so much of its talent is locked up in banking, and its best graduates are sucked into the high-paying dealing rooms of the City of London.

Japan has the same problem. Here the zombies are really ancient, cobwebbed skeletons left over from the 1990 collapse of Japan’s bubble. Some of them were put out of their misery by Junichiro Koizumi, the reformist prime minister, in 2003. Yet just this week we learned that many Japanese retailers face losses because of competition from The Daiei Inc. and Ito-Yokado Co. Ltd., gigantic retailing companies that were effectively bankrupt in 1993 but have been propped up by Japan’s banks. If you’re afraid of zombies, Japan is really creepy!

Historically, Europe is the continent where investors have suffered most from zombies propped up by governments. Certainly some countries, notably Italy, are attractive only for investment necrophiliacs.

Where to Find “Zombie-Free Zones”

There are some exceptions. Germany has only a few relatively small zombies. Both Sachsen LB and IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, the banks that got in trouble buying U.S. subprime mortgage-backed bonds, have been sold to other buyers – Sachsen to a larger Landesbank and IKB to the private equity group Lone Star Funds. Whatever their subsequent fate, those banks are currently being managed on a profit-maximizing basis.

There is a large older zombie, Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, the former Bayerische Hypothekenbank, which got in trouble in the late 1990s lending to real estate in the former East Germany, but that appears an isolated example. Industrially, Germany has been admirably rigorous in cleaning up its dead companies, and with its new pro-market government looks attractive for zombie-fearing money.

In Asia, South Korea is probably your best bet. The country had a big zombie problem ten years ago, but that problem has been cleared up with the bankruptcy and reorganization of several conglomerates and much of the banking system. This time around, there have been few major casualties and so the economy looks relatively zombie-free.

Finally, there is our northern neighbor, Canada. Canadian housing never became as over-extended as U.S. housing, and the Canadian bank bailout was correspondingly smaller, with none of the banks facing bankruptcy. Canada had a bad zombie problem fifteen years ago from decaying heavy industry, but today those zombies are long gone and the Canadian economy is resilient. The most recent bankruptcy, Nortel Networks Corp. (OTC: NRTLQ) in Jan. 2009, is being handled in a thoroughly market-oriented fashion, with its assets being sold off piecemeal. So your money is safe in Canada – lots of snow, but no zombies!

Source: Why You Need to Look at these Three ‘Zombie-Free Zones’

Now, JPMorgan Chase & Co.  (NYSE: JPM) has issued a report suggesting that investment-banking returns on capital will be sharply down over the next few years. Perhaps this will be only a moderate downturn.

However, there’s also a good chance that labor-cost pressures – combined with tightening margins – will take the likes of JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) down a path similar to that of General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GRM) and Chrysler Group LLP, both of which earlier this year declared bankruptcy.

Challenging Headwinds

JPMorgan anticipates that the regulatory changes that are likely to take place over the next year or so will reduce investment banks’ return on equity (ROE) to around 11% – down from its previous forecast of 15%.

More capital will be needed for trading activity, which naturally reduces the return on capital from that activity. However, there will also be effects from new transparency requirements on derivatives. (Most – if not all – derivatives will have to be traded and cleared across central exchanges.) And tighter limits on commodities positions will prevent firms from cornering less-active markets.

This effect will be concentrated on investment banks themselves – firms such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) – as well as on the investment banking activities of such firms as Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE: CS), Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), and JPMorgan Chase.

Old-fashioned commercial banking, on the other hand, will likely become somewhat more profitable. That’s because the sharp reduction in securitization activity has reduced the excessive competition for much of the lending business. It’s also improved the lending business profitability.

Investment banks will have to reduce their headcount by another 3% from present levels and cut their overall cost per employee by another 15%, to around $543,000 in 2011, according to the JPMorgan study.

What agony! (Actually, that joke is not quite fair – the cost per employee includes the building, the equipment and all the fancy information services, so the take-home is much less. Even so, these guys – at least those who keep their jobs – won’t starve.)

The New Reality

We are so used to investment banking growing and becoming increasingly more profitable – on virtually an uninterrupted basis – that we have never even considered what might happen if that trend were to reverse.

Even after last year’s crash, Goldman Sachs reported record second quarter profits in 2009. Spreads in all kinds of trading widened dramatically and Goldman found its market share dramatically increased after the demise of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (OTC: LEHMQ).

But here’s the thing: The trillions of dollars poured into the markets by the U.S. Treasury Department and the U.S. Federal Reserve were the driving force behind those profits. Investment banks like Goldman weren’t just given a level playing field – they were given one that was essentially (and artificially) cleared of obstacles. Even the few “competitors” that remained were hobbled by their past mismanagement.

Investment banking is not particularly difficult or intellectually challenging. And the proliferation of new and complex products that turbocharged the profit growth of investment banks during the past few decades won’t continue. Any new financial product will be forced to run a gauntlet of regulatory bureaucrats before being allowed to emerge.

Had the credit-default swap (CDS) been invented today, can anyone doubt that it would have been fenced in by restrictions so onerous that the damaging derivative would have never made it to market? The painful memories of last year’s near-unraveling of the global financial markets are still fresh. So it’s unlikely that investment banks would be able to get the regulatory nod for a big-risk strategy that is likely to result in a taxpayer bailout.

The bottom line is clear: The reduction in U.S. investment banking profitability is likely to be permanent, with various rent-seeking scams blocked. In this post-crisis era, investment pools from China, the Middle East and other parts of Asia – backed by increasingly sophisticated financial players in those markets – will acquire the necessary capabilities to enter the market and further reduce the returns of domestic investment banks.

We have seen this before: An industry, previously very profitable, finds itself hemmed in by government restrictions and its most-profitable products get regulated out of existence. Foreign competition enters the market and grinds away at the domestic market share.

The natural reduction of competitors doesn’t happen, as one or more are bailed out by taxpayers and survive to continue competing for the business.  Legacy costs of remuneration promises made when things were better place an ever-increasing burden on the industry’s returns. Reducing the work force pay becomes very difficult, as the workers have great power over production and resist the necessary downsizing of their excessive pay.

Sound familiar? Last time, it was the U.S. auto industry, and the eventual result was the bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler. Reducing pay to a work force when market conditions become harsh is extremely difficult, if now downright impossible.

Of course, investment bankers have no United Automobile Workers (UAW) representing them. But shareholders will know from past experience that the investment-banking work force’s ability to suck up available profits is huge, whereas losses suddenly devolve back on shareholders.

Don’t forget, militant autoworkers could only beat up “scabs” when their livelihood was threatened. Militant traders could re-jig the computer systems so that the trading algorithms worked backwards, producing losses instead of profits. In an era of credit default swaps and millisecond trading, this could wipe out shareholders in half an hour of frantic activity before anyone realized what had gone wrong in an era of credit default swaps and millisecond trading.

It may take a couple of decades for the investment banking business to decline, as it did for the much larger U.S. auto industry. But by 2030, collapse could loom.

The comparison isn’t a stretch. In fact, it wasn’t just a ticker-symbol letter – “G” – that  the two companies shared: GS for Goldman Sachs, and GM when General Motors was still a public company. It turns out that their underlying business models also shared similar strategic flaws. And those flaws put the two on a similar path to ruin at the hands of forces that grew out of the crises in their particular industries – crises that they each helped create.

Source: Could Goldman Sachs Share GM’s Fate?

McLean, Virginia-based Paice LLC has filed a complaint with the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) that claims the Toyota Camry infringes on its patents, Bloomberg News reported. An investigation into the claim could be completed within 15 months and result in a ban of some Toyota imports.

Paice, a developer of hybrid electric power train technology, in 2005 won a similar case against Toyota involving the Japanese carmaker’s Prius, Highlander and Lexus RX400h hybrid models. Paice claimed those vehicles used its drivetrain technologies, and a jury agreed, awarding the company $4.3 million in damages.

U.S. District Judge David Folsom rejected Paice’s request for a court order to halt the sales of Toyota vehicles in the United States, but he did force Toyota to pay royalties based on the cars’ wholesale prices.

Toyota appealed the claim but lost.

A similar ruling in this instance could be a huge blow to Toyota, whose hybrid vehicles were the main beneficiary of a shift in U.S. auto sales toward more fuel-efficient vehicles. The Camry was the best-selling vehicle in the nation last month, benefiting greatly from the U.S. Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS), popularly known as “Cash for Clunkers.”

New Toyotas accounted for 19% of the cars bought through the Clunkers program, and the company reported a year-over-year sales increase of 6.4%.

The company has sold more than 2 million hybrid vehicles worldwide since their launch in 1997. Those sales were led by the Prius model.

Source: Toyota Faces Possible Import Ban Over Paice’s Patent Suit

New home sales jumped almost 10% in July, while the Case-Shiller home price index rose for the second successive month. Yet luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers lost $493 million in the quarter ending July 31, considerably worse than analysts had expected.

Housing stocks are certainly acting as if a recovery must be on the way. Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM) has more than doubled from its low. Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) is up around 70% from its bottom. D.R. Horton Enterprises (NYSE: DHI) is up almost four times from its bottom. Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) is up about 4½ times from its low. Finally, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: HOV) is up almost tenfold from its low after a flirtation with bankruptcy. Yet all of these companies are still racking up quarterly losses, according to their most recently released earnings reports.

In terms of house prices, it would seem unlikely that a bear market bottom has been reached. Yes, the average house price is now back down around its long-term average of about 3.2 times average earnings, or only a little above it. But history suggests that markets don’t bottom at their average valuation: In fact, after such a huge excess to the upside, they overshoot on the downside.

The Case-Shiller 20-cities index is still 42% above its January 2000 level, having outpaced inflation during the last 9½ years. Yet January 2000 was not the bottom of a housing depression – far from it, in fact. That was actually close to the top of the dot-com bubble, when valuations of all assets were at all-time highs. So an average price over the whole country that – even now – remains 42% above the average price recorded at the very top of a huge economic boom does not seem like a market bottom to me.

You also have to remember that the U.S. federal government is hugely subsidizing the market. Interest rates are artificially low, and the U.S. Federal Reserve has bought more than $1 trillion worth of housing debt. Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) have been rescued by the government, and provided with more than $100 billion of taxpayer capital. And Ginnie Mae (the Government National Mortgage Association), directly a government agency, has provided almost $1 trillion of mortgages that require a 3% down payment.

And that’s not all.

The government is spending additional billions helping homeowners avoid foreclosure. First-time buyers are given a tax credit of $8,000 towards the down payment on their house – this credit currently runs out on December 1. So the current overall market bottom is propped up artificially. Even if the proposed tax-credit extension is approved, at some point, those props will be removed.

In individual cities, the picture is somewhat brighter. Phoenix and Las Vegas prices are less than 10% above their 2000 levels, having been halved from their respective peaks. In those markets, house prices may truly be reaching a bottom, although the overhang of foreclosures after such a huge drop may make recovery slow. At the other extreme, Detroit housing is 30% cheaper than in 2000, a testimony to the awful economic environment there, with the bankruptcies of General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GRM) and Chrysler Group LLC.

Again, with the government bailouts of both companies, there may be something of a recovery in the local housing market.

Probably the best prospects, however, are in Denver and Dallas, where prices are about 20% above their 2000 level, roughly in line with the increase in consumer prices during that same period. However, the local economies are strongly based on natural resources, particularly oil, whose price is triple its 2000 level. With prices in Dallas and Denver down only about 10% from their 2000 peaks, a true recovery in those cities may be near.

At the opposite extreme are the metropolitan “Big Three” of Los Angeles, New York and Washington, where prices are 61%, 71% and 74% above their 2000 levels, respectively.

Washington will be fine, of course: The Obama administration’s spending-and-legislation plans have attracted yet another huge influx of bureaucrats, lobbyists and lawyers, all of which will boost the housing market to new highs. With New York you have to worry about all the financial-services jobs being lost as a result of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

From a nationwide standpoint, the most likely path for the housing market is for a modest recovery, with some later slippage as subsidies are removed. Housing is likely destined to once again become a highly regional market, as it always was prior to the 2001-2006 market boom, with the cycles in each market being very different.

As for homebuilding stocks, they appear to already be discounting a recovery in their businesses that may well be years away. Selling at well above net asset value (NAV), with Price/Earnings (P/E) ratios that are infinite because the companies continue to lose money, shares of homebuilders represent a very poor value, indeed.

Source: The U.S. Housing Market’s False Dawn

Three of the financial institutions that were key catalysts to the global financial crisis – and that owe the federal government billions of dollars as a direct result of those problems – have seen their shares triple in price so far this month.

That could signal that a big rebound in bank-sector earnings is just around the corner. Or it could be merely a speculative “short squeeze” that all but confirms that these stocks are basically worthless.

Shares of busted insurer American International Group Inc. (NYSE:AIG) have soared from $13.14 to $50.23, as of Friday’s close, a gain of 282.3% so far this month. Shares of mortgage giants Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) and Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) posted similar gains,MarketWatch.com reported. Fannie’s shares advanced from 58 cents to $2.04, an increase of 251.7%. Freddie’s shares zoomed from 62 cents to $2.40 each, a gain of 287.1%.

AIG actually gained for a ninth straight day Friday, reaching a 10-month high, as short-shelling speculators got squeezed and were forced to buy back the shares they’d sold short, traders told MarketWatch. AIG has 21% of its “float” – shares available to the public sold short, the sixth-highest proportion in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, according toBloomberg News.

But the gains might also sign that the banking sector is poised for a major profit rebound, according to some new analyst research.

“Dating back to 1995, bank-sector outperformance has typically preceded [earnings-per-share] growth outperformance by one to two quarters,” Stifel Nicolaus & Co. (NYSE: SN) analysts wrote in a market-research note last week. “With sector earnings growth expected to exceed that of the general market in mid-2010, we question whether we will see another leg down in this rally before year-end. On the other hand, perhaps we should question the current growth expectations for the sector?”

Trading in financial-services stocks has dominated the stock-market volume this month. So-called “day traders” have gravitated to once-questionable financial stocks and helped fuel those stunning gains – and huge volumes.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), for instance, has seen daily trading volume topping 1 billion shares this week. The stock closed above $5.05 on Thursday and $5.23 on Friday. That represents a 439% gain from its 52-week low of 97 cents a share.

Financial stocks have led the market’s slingshot higher from the early March lows. Trading has been fierce in beaten-down shares of some companies that participated in the bailout, such as AIG, Citi and Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC).

The New York-based AIG is trying to sell assets to repay government loans after accepting $182.5 billion in U.S. bailout money. AIG recently reported a profit for its second quarter – after having posted six straight quarters in the red. It engineered a so-called “reverse stock split,” in which AIG gave investors one new share for every 20 they turned in. The company did this to avoid a delisting action. That enhanced the short squeeze, since there were fewer shares available to for short-sellers to repurchase and “cover” their bets.

Despite the torrid run that AIG’s shares have been on, the insurance company’s bonds still trade at levels indicating the company’s shares may be worthless, Peter Boockvar, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., told Bloomberg.

“The value of the company is still the same,” Boockvar said. “AIG bonds tell you that the equity is possibly worth nothing and that they may not be able to pay back the government.”

AIG’s $3.24 billion of 8.25% bonds due in 2018 are quoted at 79 cents on the dollar, to yield 12.2%, Bloomberg reported. The insurer’s $4 billion of 8.175% percent bonds due in 2058 are quoted at 49.5 cents on the dollar to yield 16.7% Bloomberg said.

The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLF), an ETF tracking the financial stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, has rallied nearly 30% over the past three months and handily outpaced the market.

Market Matters

While the past few months have been anything but dull for the markets (euphoric may be more appropriate), investors enjoyed a few slow days of peace and quiet.

Another stimulus program came to a close as “Cash for Clunkers” ended with a last-minute flurry of activity.  Analysts claimed that more than 700,000 cars were bought over the past month and August auto sales should rise on a year-over-year basis for the first time since mid-2007.

While dealerships enjoyed a nice rebound in activity (even if just temporarily), banks continued to experience challenges as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC)reported that 416 institutions were on its “problem” list at the end of the second quarter, up from 305 on March 31, and also conceded that its insurance-fund reserves were dwindling.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) was in the news again as controversy has continued to surround the investment giant since the AIG bailout and LehmanBrothers Holdings Inc. (OTC: LEHMQ) failures.  Regulators are investigating its weekly “trading huddles,” where its analysts allegedly gave short-term stock tips to select clients and traders, though most other customers were not privy to such insight.

Dell Corp. (Nasdaq: DELL) posted lower quarterly profits, though
the result still beat Street expectations and management projected stronger performance in 2010 when businesses get back in technology buying mode.  Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC) boosted its revenue projections for the next few months, another sign that chip demand is increasing and the business climate continues to improve.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average roared to eight straight days of higher closes, before hitting a stumbling block on Friday (though no one may have noticed as volume was so light) and the days of triple-digit moves ended (for a week at least).

The other indexes traded relatively flat during the week and even the positive news from Intel did little to generate any investor enthusiasm in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index. Fixed income fared better than most would have expected, considering another $109 billion in government debt hit the street.

Oil surged to a 10-month high before a larger-than-expected inventory report indicated that crude demand remained weak despite expectations of an economic recovery just around the corner.  In fact, natural gas plunged to a seven-year low.

Economically Speaking

In perhaps the biggest news of the week, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will manage to avoid becoming a part of the so-called “jobless recovery” when he was nominated for another term as central bank chair by U.S. President Barack Obama.

While Bernanke certainly has his critics among grandstanding politicos from both sides of the aisle, few Fed watchers expect Congress to hold up his confirmation.  For now, continuity seems to be the best thing.

The economic data of the week was relatively favorable with signs of renewed strength in both housing and manufacturing.  New home sales jumped for the fourth consecutive month and the S&P Case-Shiller Index even depicted higher home prices last quarter for the first time since 2006.  Durable good orders surged in July on increased demand within the transportation sector as both General Motors Co. (OTC: MTLQQ) and Chrysler Group LLC put bankruptcy in their rearview mirrors and boosted production, while other companies also benefited from the “Cash for Clunkers” program.

When second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was announced as a decline of 1%, many analysts expected a downward revision (perhaps significant) in the months that followed.  Well, the initial revision again showed a 1% decline, a negative showing, but one that many economists believe will be the last contraction in overall activity for a while.

The U.S. consumer remains one big wildcard for the strength of the economy moving forward.  Though the Conference Board reported a better-than-expected increase in its August consumer confidence report, the Reuters/U of Michigan sentiment index offered a contrasting view as it fell to its lowest level in four months.  Personal spending in July got a nice boost from the increase auto sales (“Cash for Clunkers” strikes again), though the income component of the release was unchanged and concerns about the labor picture continued to hinder consumer activity.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: Soaring Prices for AIG, Fannie and Other Financial Stocks Sending Mixed Messages to Investors ]]> http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/soaring-prices-for-aig-fannie-and-other-financial-stocks-sending-mixed-messages-to-investors/20240/feed 0 http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/desperate-for-capital-the-fdic-backs-away-from-tougher-rules-governing-private-equity-purchases-of-failed-us-banks/20206 http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/desperate-for-capital-the-fdic-backs-away-from-tougher-rules-governing-private-equity-purchases-of-failed-us-banks/20206#comments Fri, 28 Aug 2009 18:37:38 +0000 Shah Gilani http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=20206 A new Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.  (FDIC) plan to offload busted banks to vulture investors strikes an uneven balance between private equity players and public taxpayers and may inadvertently sow the seeds for another round of bank failures.

The FDIC currently insures bank depositors up to $250,000 – up from $100,000 prior to the financial crisis. So far this year, 81 banks have failed, costing the FDIC an estimated $21.5 billion.

And the situation is almost certainly going to get worse.

A Growing List of Troubled Banks

The FDIC reported yesterday (Thursday) that the number of distressed banks rose to the highest level in 15 years during the second quarter, thanks to an economic malaise that’s saddling banks with a growing level of bad loans.

The number…

Here in the United States, at a cost of a mere $3 billion, the “Cash-for-Clunkers” program appears to have given new hope to the U.S. auto industry.

But that new hope is destined to be short-lived.

It’s true that – in terms of value delivered for the money invested – “Cash for Clunkers” has eclipsed every other stimulus program that has been tried. But the program has a projected lifespan of only three months, meaning it can’t reverse the powerful global forces that are destined to turn the U.S. auto market from leader to laggard on the global stage.

Financial Crisis Fallout Reshapes Sector

Thanks to the financial crisis whose impact continues to be felt, worldwide automobile demand had dropped on an overall basis since 2008.

But regional differences are already emerging.

In the United States, for instance, the benchmark seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) finally jumped up past the 11-million mark in July after failing to eclipse the “breakeven point” of 10 million vehicles in any prior month this year. But the actual year-to-date sales of 5.81 million vehicles through July was still 33% below the 8.55 million that had been sold by that point in 2008, and is 67% below the all-time annual record of 17.4 million achieved in 2000 and 65% below the decade average of 16.4 million.

(Prior to the global financial crisis and accompanying recession – which prompted the U.S. auto industry to restructure and shift its breakeven point down to 10 million vehicles – the breakeven point was actually 16 million vehicle sales in a year. Below that point, several or all of the U.S. “Big Three” would be spinning their wheels in red ink.)

It’s a much different story abroad, however, where several markets are in a long-term growth mode. In India, for example, sales were up 31% on a year-over-year basis, while auto sales in China were an astonishing 70% above those of a year ago. Even if U.S. auto sales continue to improve, China’s automobile market may outsell its U.S. counterpart for a full year for the first time ever.

Granted, India’s auto market – around 2.5 million cars and light trucks a year – is still much smaller than either China or the United States. However, its growth makes it comparable to the Japanese or German markets, the next largest automobile markets after its U.S. and China counterparts.

Thus, global automobile sales are undergoing a major reorientation towards Asia and away from the United States and Europe. This will inevitably have a huge effect on the structure of the sector.

That’s why Asia will become the new Detroit – the future center of the automaking world.

Gone For Good?

In the United States, General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Group LLC have lost market share because of the government takeover. They are unlikely to get it back in spite of the debt costs they have relinquished through bankruptcy.

For Chrysler, the partnership with Fiat SpA (OTC ADR: FIATY) is unlikely to help much. Fiat is among the weakest of the European companies, and has not been competitive in the United States since the 1980s. The U.S. market is undoubtedly moving toward smaller automobiles. That trend is being “fueled” by the new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for 2015 and probably by higher fuel taxes for environmental and budget reasons. Nevertheless, it seems unlikely that the Chrysler/Fiat partnership will have the models to compete.

General Motors has the model range to compete in the United States. However, GM is doing much better in China, thanks largely to its joint venture with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp., which expects to sell 1.4 million vehicles in 2009. Since GM is also selling Opel, its European operation, GM (NYSE:GRM) will find itself driven primarily by the demands of the Chinese market. Given the growth of that market, it will probably make the most economic sense for GM to become Chinese-owned. Politics may delay this, but probably only for a few years.

The United States’ One “Better Idea”

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) has picked up market share in the United States from GM and Chrysler’s problems. It should benefit both from “Cash for Clunkers,” and from the early stages of the U.S. market recovery. If GM and Chrysler continue to have difficulties, Ford may be in a good position here in the large U.S. market – as the most-effective manufacturer of the large automobiles that Americans continue to prefer – no matter what the government tells Ford to do.

Nor is that Ford’s only competitive advantage going forward. Ford Europe is big and viable enough to allow Ford to remain credible as a producer of smaller cars, primarily in the higher price brackets.

Outside the United States, European manufacturers will find themselves increasingly confined to the luxury end of the market. However, as global incomes rise and the newly wealthy become brand-conscious – particularly in the emerging economies of Asia – that upscale portion of the auto market should continue to be strong.

Japanese and Korean manufacturers will continue to dominate their domestic markets. And such companies as Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE ADR: HMC), Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE ADR: TM) and Kia Motors Corp., will also do well in the United States and Europe, and in countries where they have been able to establish viable local manufacturing operations, and lower labor costs.

But it will be the players from China and India who are destined to be the big market-share gainers on a global basis.

The New Leaders

For U.S. investors, India’s Tata Motors Ltd. (NYSE ADR: TTM) is the best known of the newly emerging global auto elite. Tata’s $2,500 for-the-masses “Nano” car has been well received. Over the long term, the Nano may expand the entry-level portion of the worldwide auto market, forcing other manufacturers to produce equivalent low-price models.

Indeed, the introduction of $2,500 cars may greatly expand the market’s size in India and other emerging markets, much as Ford’s Model T did after its introduction in 1908, or the Volkswagen AG (OTC ADR: VLKAY) VW Beetle did in the 1950s and 1960s.

Tata looked to be in financial difficulty after it bought the loss-making Jaguar and Land Rover brands in 2008 at the top of the market. However, the $300 million loan for its Jaguar Land Rover Unit announced on Aug. 10 gives Tata the room it needed to maneuver. Market growth in India, combined with the strength of its Tata Group parent now suggest that Tata Motors has the strength to survive without dismemberment.

The bottom line: Tata and its India-based competitors – Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. (Mumbai: MSIL) and Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd. (London: MHID) – as well as such top China carmakers as Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (still publicly owned), Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. (OTC: GELYF) and Great Wall Motor Co. (OTC: GWLLF), are thus the companies that will see most growth in the automotive market of the decade to come.

By 2020, the global auto sector will look nothing like it does today. Given that most of the muscle will be in Asia, investors shouldn’t be surprised.

Source: Why Asia Will Supplant Detroit as the Global Center of the Auto Industry

The stock is still a far cry from its record-high level of $83.56, but is only 0% below its 52-week high of $53.46.  Much has changed since then, as the U.S. auto industry is no longer producing the 16 million cars it produced in 2007, nor the 13 million it managed to sell last year.  This year we are looking at some 10 million units sold, according to J.D. Power and Associates, the leading forecaster in the industry.

But there is encouraging news:  The very quick restructuring of both General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GRM) and Chrysler Group LLC, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s efforts to stabilize the financial markets, and the U.S. government’s fiscal stimulus plans have helped keep the economy from falling into a depression.  The Fed’s support for the auto industry included buying auto receivables under the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) program, in order to restart this type of securitization.

Therefore, the paralysis of sales that we saw late last year, when the financial system froze and there was no financing available, has subsided and sales are increasing.  In fact, J.D. Power expects U.S. vehicle sales to increase to 11.5 million units next year, a full 15% pickup from projected 2009 levels.

In fact, we are already seeing an increase in auto sales already, thanks in no small part to the government’s Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS), popularly known as “Cash for Clunkers.” So far, CARS has spent some $1.29 billion and Congress has expanded the original $1 billion authorization by another $2 billion.

Total light vehicle sales for July were just shy of 1 million units, a milestone the industry hasn’t topped since August 2008, mostly due to the program’s success.

This shot in the arm on the back of the general cost restructuring that Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is carrying out under Allan Mulally has already prompted Ford to increase production of its Focus model.

Similarly, Chrysler has reported that it is running two plants in overtime and a third shift at another plant just to keep up with demand.  And GM, which is seeing a huge rebound in sales, will add to this by increasing advertising spending and selling new cars on eBay Inc.’s (Nasdaq: EBAY) popular online auction Web site. Most of Wall Street is in “wait-and-see” mode, which gives us more of an incentive to jump in.  But the steel story is not just about cars.

Nucor will not only profit from the remaining $1.75 billion to be deployed through the government’s cash for clunkers program and the general improvement in market conditions, but on the pick-up in government construction in the United States that will result from U.S. President Barack Obama’s massive fiscal stimulus.

Additionally, the company will benefit from the already massive stimuli being deployed in China, Brazil, India and Russia.  And let us not forget Europe, where the European Central Bank will soon consider raising its benchmark lending rate to 1.25% from its current record low of 1% in order to prevent inflationary expectations from building up.

China will achieve more than 8% growth this year, driven by public spending, especially in construction and a strong pickup in auto sales  (up 63.6% in July from a year earlier) and domestic appliances.  All of these have a very high content of steel.

Similarly, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by more than 6%, barely down from last year’s 6.7% expansion. Auto sales in India jumped 18% last month.  Remember that India’s Tata Motors Ltd. (NYSE ADR: TTM) launched the cheapest car in the world last January and this is likely to work wonders in today’s budget-conscious market.

So what about Nucor itself?

The company reported a second quarter loss of $133 million, which improved over the first quarter’s $189 million loss.  But the key is that volumes are already turning around.

Volumes increased 11% in the second quarter, which allowed the company to increase its capacity utilization from 45% to a still very low 46%.

And this is where the upside lies.

In capital-intensive industries like steel, the very high fixed costs induce very large swings in profits, depending on volumes.  And not only did Nucor see its volumes pick up in the second quarter, the trend should continue accelerating in the third quarter and beyond, thanks to the recent burst in car sales and increased government infrastructure spending.

In addition, prior to the cash for clunkers program, Nucor announced it already expected to see an improvement in its third-quarter results. The company said that many of its customers had run their inventories too low and would need to replenish them just to meet demand.

So, at reporting time, investors could be very positively surprised by Nucor and many other companies in the sector, which will provoke many analysts to increase their stock targets.

And to make the whole story even better, we are counting on increasing inflationary expectations and a weaker dollar, which will continue to drive portfolio managers to hedge this risk in commodity stocks.

That means Nucor, which has been bumping into strong resistance levels since the beginning of January, but making higher lows in every subsequent correction, is likely to break out of its current range with an explosive rally before it even reports third-quarter earnings.

Nucor stock closed down 92 cents, or 1.93%, Friday at $46.79 a share.

Source: Nucor Corporation Will Get Is Due for a Boost from Government Spending

Competition can be so mean. In a country where the government is doing its best to make sure we  all have equal incomes and resources, you would think companies like Redbox, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and TiVo (NASDAQ:TIVO) would take it easy on Blockbuster (NYSE:BBI) for a few quarters.

After all, isn’t it “un-American” to force your fellow citizens into bankruptcy?

Banks can’t force homeowners delinquent on their mortgages out of their houses. General Motors (NYSE:GRM) and Chrysler were saved. How in the world can we stand by and watch Blockbuster go under? Where will I rent my Saved by the Bell Reunion video?

While it is not surprising to see a company that has done the absolute bare minimum to update its business model over the last, oh say, two decades is about to be rewound for the last time, it is time the markets seriously begin to discount the notion.

After yesterday’s horrific earnings report, it is safe to say there are plenty of folks taking bets on just how many days Blockbuster has left on this planet.

Be kind, DON’T rewind

Once yesterday’s closing bell was done vibrating, the company snuck onto the news wire and told investors it managed to lose $0.21 per share ($39.7 million total) last quarter, far worse than even the lowest analyst expectations.

On average, the company’s followers were looking for a per share loss of $0.11. The spread was enough to drive shares down by close to 20% in today’s notably rough session.

Although the quarter’s loss was less than last year’s corresponding period when the company spent $41.9 million more than it made, a same-store sales figure that is 17.8% lower proves that operating cuts and short-term margin boosters will not be able to prop up the company’s losses for much longer.

Unless consumers suddenly start flocking to Blockbuster instead of the growing list of competitors, Blockbuster’s bottom line is only going to sink deeper and deeper.

Just when the company thought the threat from Netflix in the mail-rental business was leveling off, Redbox shows up and slams its in-store business.

Why drive to the nearest Blockbuster and shell out five bucks when you can pay a buck a night from one of the kiosks that seemingly appear on every corner these days?

Blockbuster missed its shot at a first-entry position once again. It is proving it is not necessarily the company’s business model that is lacking, but its management team.

Unless these guys can offer something innovative and appealing to its customers real quick Blockbuster’s dwindling pile of cash is going to become a serious problem.

Shares are already trading well under a buck each. It won’t be long until they are trading back down at 52-week low territory, just above the single-digit range.

If you are holding shares of Blockbuster, you had better return them now. You are not going to like the late fees.

Source: Blockbuster: Where is the Rewind Button When You Need?

How would you like to have been the guy that bought shares of Ford (NYSE:F) when they dipped to a 27-year low of $1.01 back in November? If you were lucky enough to have made the move, a thousand-dollar investment would now be worth just shy of $7,500.

Thanks to today’s news that the company saw its first year-over-year sales increase since late 2007, shares of the company are up by about 6%.

Of course the success comes to the detriment of its recently bankrupt competitors, General Motors and Chrysler, which announced declines of 19.4% and 9%, respectively.

While the quick billion-dollar burst of the Clash-for-Clunkers plan will get all the credit from Washington, there are several factors involved in the surge in buying.

First, with bankruptcy filings now in the history books, the market is filled with much less risk and uncertainty. That means wary buyers now know who will be around next year and who will be joining the growing list of economic casualties.

Of course, Cash for Clunkers is making its mark. But only time will tell if last month’s figures are destined to become an anomaly as the funding eventually dries up and vanishes or if buyers will continue shopping even when the free money runs out.

More importantly that what is compelling buyers to head back to dealerships is the list of companies bound to profit from the government’s free money and the turnaround in demand.

Who gets my tax dollars?

Ford is obviously one beneficiary. And with the market bidding shares of the company up today, the market has already spoken its obvious bullishness for the company’ s future revenue-generating potential.

Some other companies worthy of the attention they are getting today are the big dealerships, like Sonic Automotive (NYSE:SAH). Shares of the small-cap company are up by double-digit proportions as the market re-figures the impact of several billion dollars worth of new-car buying.

With nearly 140 dealership franchises, you can bet the company’s bean counters are preparing for a few extra zeroes on the next accounting statements, especially if the Senate caves later this week and dishes another round of cash.

Of course, the nation’s automotive supply chain runs deep. Some analysts even draw it as long as the corner donut shop down the street (blame the unions).

A bit further upstream than the donut shops, look at the action at ever-volatile Dana Holding (NYSE:DAN). Shares of the parts maker are soaring by 20% today as investors rush to get in before Detroit makes a rebound that mirrors the broad market’s recent moves.

Now, before you get all jumpy thinking today’s action will continue for weeks or even months, let me explain how hype-driven investments work.

Rule number 1: It doesn’ t last.

Rule number 2: If the government is in charge, be cautious.

Rule number 3: Take your profits and run.

This message is not so much for the folks looking to get into a few goods stocks, but for the investors looking for a signal to get out.

Volatility is getting sheepishly low. It scares me.

Stocks don’t like to make broad turnarounds when everybody is looking. Instead, they do it when nobody is looking. Or, more succinctly, when presidents exclaim, “mission accomplished.”

If you want to be greedy and stick it out, you have a few more days. But in auto industry, I am a seller, especially after today’s moves.

There are simply too many other under-valued, low-risk plays to be made to be investing in an industry running on government whims.

Source: Three Winners from Cash for Clunkers