Baltimore — (TFN): Sometimes you just know it is going to be a rough couple of days. As you read this, my soft-hearted, pregnant wife is recovering from a fairly significant surgery. That alone is enough to raise the blood pressure.

But at the same time my better half is asking for a stronger morphine drip, the weatherman is calling for a foot of snow. And worse yet, the phone is ringing off the hook with long-time friends wanting to take advantage of perfect waterfowl hunting conditions.

I think we all know where my obligations lie, but it is going to be real hard to be sitting in that duck blind, knowing my wife could use some help.

Just kidding. I’m off to the hospital.

In the meantime, I’ve asked for some additional assistance for today’s issue of notes. With Obama touching down in Copenhagen, I think you will like it.

Dr. Marc Bustin is an editor at Casey’s Energy Report. When he is no writing for the popular service, he’s a professor of petroleum and coal geology at the University of British Columbia.

Like I said, you will enjoy what he has to say. Here it is:

“Over the last couple of years, consideration of the effect of climate change has become increasingly important in analyzing a company or market trend — particularly in the energy sector.

“For example, our very bearish view on the thermal coal producers in North America is due exclusively to the high levels of carbon dioxide that coal-fired power plants generate, and the widely held belief that these emissions contribute to global warming.

“As researchers who like to chase down facts, we know that credible scientists continue to debate whether and how much humans really do contribute to global warming. However, it’s the rare politician who acknowledges this controversy.

“Instead, they join the herd of scientists and pseudo-scientists who tend to cherry pick among the findings to fit their preconceived conclusions. An unfortunate state of affairs, but, alas, a consequential one, because these same politicians are awfully fond of regulation — and they’re becoming more so.

“So it’s not surprising that we are on course for a real mess in terms of government regulations concerning carbon emissions, taxes, tariffs, and such. Detrimental results are likely for certain sectors of the economy, such as the oil and coal sectors and associated refiners, heavy industry, and the transportation sector.

“As a scientist, I currently accept the near-unequivocal evidence that Earth is in a warming spell, but I also know that in past geological times, there have been many such periods of warming and cooling. I remain on the fence as to what impact anthropogenic (human-sponsored) emissions are having on the global trend.
“Perhaps more importantly, at some level I am haunted by the belief that even if we are responsible for global warming, we are too late, and there is nothing we can do about it.

“Pragmatically, our job at Casey is to point our subscribers toward prudent investments, and it is pretty clear that there is opportunity and danger in industry that is regulated, subsidized, and penalized by government.

“It’s also clear we are just now at the beginning of what will be pronounced government intervention — for example, the U.S. House of Representatives bill (H.R.2454) aimed at reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions 17% from 2005 levels by 2020 and 83% by 2050.

“The bill allows tariffs on carbon-intensive goods (such as steel, cement, paper, and glass) if they are produced in countries the United States judges to be shirking their responsibility in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

“Herein lies the problem, even if you believe cutting emissions will make a difference: the new big greenhouse gas emitters (i.e., China, whose growing use of coal recently pushed it to the #1 spot in greenhouse emissions, with India rushing to catch up) must curb their emissions… but in doing so, they will be denied the standard of living that in theory those of us who screwed up the atmosphere in the first place enjoy.

“This is hypocritical, and the hypocrisy is not lost on the developing nations. That’s why I think that global accords on emissions are not going to work.

“Going forward, I see the impact of climate change regulations – tariffs, taxes on emissions, subsidies, carbon credits, and carbon trading – becoming a major factor in not only the energy sector but also the associated technology sector. And since governments tend to be rather fickle and make decisions that defy logic, our job at Casey Research has gotten that much more titillating.

“Every month, we’ll bring you analysis of everything that’s pulling at the energy sector — logic-defying governments included —in Casey’s Energy Report. With a subscription, you’ll also get Casey’s Energy Opportunities and, until December 18, a free subscription to Casey’s Extraordinary Technology. To top it off, you get all this at 40% off the regular price and with a no-risk 90-day trial. Click here to learn more — and be sure to do it before or on December 18!”

*** For next week, keep an eye on the dollar and especially gold. After yesterday’s mega-drop, the precious metal is precariously close to my prescribed buying range. Now that the bears managed to shake off the “commoners,” it’s time to re-evaluate the value of gold.

We’ll tackle the subject in depth over the next few days.

A few months ago, I visited the largest coal-fired power plant in America, Plant Scherer. When Scherer operates at full capacity, it produces 3.5 gigawatts of power. A nuclear reactor produces around one gigawatt of power

Itaipu produces 14 gigawatts of power. In other words, it’s four times the size of America’s largest coal power plant… and 14 times the size of most nukes. Itaipu provides 93% of Paraguay’s power and 25% of Brazil’s power.

I can’t explain in words what a beast this dam is. It stretches four miles across and 65 stories high. The iron and steel used to build it would give you 380 Eiffel Towers. It’s one of the seven modern wonders of the world, alongside the Panama Canal and the Golden Gate Bridge.

According to their joint agreement, Paraguay gets 50% of the electricity from the dam. Brazil gets 50%. But Paraguay is a small country. It has a population of 6 million people… versus 200 million in Brazil. So Paraguay only keeps 5% of Itaipu’s power and sells the rest back to Brazil.

This makes Paraguay the largest exporter of hydroelectric power in the world.

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Here’s the thing: Paraguay sells its electricity to Brazil at $3 per kilowatt-hour. Right now, Brazil can sell the same unit of electricity to its private utilities at $150 per kilowatt-hour. There is an electricity crisis in Latin America right now, especially in Chile, and electricity prices are very high. It’s immediately obvious Brazil is not paying Paraguay the right price for its power. And Paraguay is losing billions of dollars.

Corrupt politicians set this low price in 1973… under a 50-year contract. The Brazilians bribed the Paraguayan government to sell them power at a rate that’s far too low. Now, there are calls to change this rate, but who knows if that’ll happen…

The thing is, Paraguay doesn’t have to sell its power to Brazil. It could consume the power itself. I think it would be a great business to set up an aluminum or zinc smelter here. These businesses are electricity-intensive. The problem is, Paraguay is a poor country and has absolutely no industry. It’s all agriculture here.

According to the people at Itaipu, the energy the dam creates every day is the equivalent to 433,000 barrels of oil. That’s about half of what Canada’s Athabasca oil sands produce each day. Except it’s renewable, it’s clean, and it takes no energy to produce.

This cheap electricity is one of the reasons I like Paraguay as an investment. But it’s hard to get your money into the country…

Paraguay has no stock market… only a small bond market. So to invest in Paraguay, you’ll have to go there yourself and buy assets from the locals. That’s a good thing. It means everything is cheap.

In Paraguay, for example, you can buy companies for book value… that pay 45% dividends, according to one broker I met. You can buy real estate with 10% rental yields. And cattle farms with 18.5% cash yields.

Good investing,

Tom

P.S. The Three Gorges Dam in China will be the largest hydroelectric dam in the world by volume. It will operate at full capacity by 2011. China hopes it’ll produce 18 gigawatts. That’s bigger than Itaipu.

Our tour guide wasn’t convinced Three Gorges would be able to produce that much power. “The Yangtze isn’t as powerful as the Parana,” he said. “We’ll see…”

P.P.S. There is talk of a hydro plant twice the size of Three Gorges in Africa, on the Congo River. But it’ll never happen. For a start, only 10% of Africans have access to the grid… What will they do with all that power? And secondly, it will require cooperation from seven different central African countries… and hundreds of billions of dollars in loans.

Source: The Largest Electricity Exporter

With staple foods racing to record high prices, the world’s poor are feeling the pinch of the global food crisis. But the effects are not limited to the third world. Costco stores in northern California are imposing limits on buying of oil, flour, and rice reported a recent article in the NY Sun.

Dan Denning says to keep an eye on dairy prices, “No one is mentioning cows, though. Cows eat grain. Grain is more expensive. Dairy prices are rising as a result. Dairy Australia reports that East Coast dairy farmers are trucking milk all the way across the Nullarbor to Western Australia. Western Australia exports 20 million litres of milk a year to Singapore and Malaysia. But with local demand growing so fast, the cows in WA just aren’t working hard enough to meet demand.

What do you think the embedded energy cost is in a litre of Australia milk that ends up in Singapore? You have the petrol to power the tractor that harvests the grain that feeds the cow who’s milk must be refrigerated as its trucked across the continent via internal combustion engine to be transported on a coal or oil powered ship in containers made of plastic (oil) to Singapore where a lorry driver with a refrigerated truck that runs on petrol takes it to a store whose lights and freezers are kept bright and cool by coal-fired power. All so you can have some milk with your cake in Singapore’s fabulous Changi airport as your carbon foot print grows to the size of Godzilla’s paws.”