London ’s leading index headed straight up at the open adding 69 points at the open to 6,156 following a good day on Wall St. yesterday.

The Dow put on 189 points to close above 13,000 for the first time since the start of the year – no doubt a significant closing level for technical analysts. The gain came as financial stocks made the running and in spite of ExxonMobil shedding 3.6%. Exxon is struggling to up production reports the FT as it falls victim to resource nationalism. African production fell 20% after it was forced to hand over more to host governments and its Venezuelan interests were nationalised.

Continues below …

FLEET STREET LETTER ALERT

3 “Gloom-Loving Stocks” for the Coming Recession

Dark clouds are gathering over the UK economy.

But for contrarian-minded investors, this spells opportunity.

The Fleet Street Letter has just been given permission to share three such money moves with you today.

You can read the full briefing here

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The bounce in US stocks reverberated around the time zones. The Nikkei was up over 2% to close above 14,000 and China’s leading index, the Shanghai Composite added almost 5% as it breaks out from a six month downtrend. European bourses are up across the board this morning.

So is it over? Or is this premature as the IHT suggests? Stock markets are forward looking by six months or so, so are presumable focused somewhere on the end of this year and the bulls see something better out there. But lest we get too carried away the world can look very different at street level. It was only on Monday that Warren Buffett was warning “ my general feeling is that the recession will be longer and deeper than most people think. This will not be short and shallow. I think consumers are feeling gas and food prices and not feeling they’ve got a lot of money for other things.”

Except perhaps for the one off “tax rebate” cheque sent to US taxpayers in the post this week. But some relief is coming too from a sector that of late has been a chronic thorn in the side of central bank inflation targets – the commodities market. Commodity prices have been falling of late across the board – energy, industrial and precious metals and agricultural commodities. The price of crude is down for a fourth day running with Brent Crude at $110 and West Texas light sweet crude a shade under $112. Lehman Bros said recently there was $20-30 of “hot money” in the crude price.

Why the pull back? It’s all about the dollar says commodity strategist, David Moore of Commonwealth Bank in Australia:

“The demand for investing in commodities as a hedge for U.S. dollar weakness has faded.”

Which gives us a clue as to the nature of the demand. There’s actual physical demand for commodities according to their use and then there’s more speculative investment demand. With the revival of interest in the sector, how much of the price is attributed to each? We don’t know but given the rapid rise in popularity of the commodity exchange-traded fund, we suspect the balance has tilted significantly in recent years towards the speculator.

That fading interest in hedging has helped the dollar claw itself back from a low point at 1.60 to the euro, to 1.54 now. When even central bankers are telling the market it’s not so bad, investors worries are starting to subside. Says Japanese fund manager Tetsu Emori:

“Worries about the financial market turmoil and even an economic slowdown seem to be softening, so that’s why people are selling gold.”

As such gold continues its slide south, at one point unwinding all the way to its $850 price at the start of the year. Just as the dollar stages something of a rally, the Gulf States may finally be coming to the conclusion that pegging to it is not after all such a good idea as dollar weakness adds to their domestic inflation problems. Something even Alan Greenspan actually advised them to do on a visit to the region. Kuwait has been the only one to drop its peg to date and has seen its currency appreciate almost 8% against the dollar since. Its Finance Minister Mustafa al-Shimali seems confident other Gulf Cooperation Council states will follow its lead – “some countries will do what we are doing.”

Here at home, the winds of political change look to have blown pretty hard yesterday. UK government worries about taking a pasting from the electorate in the local elections proved well founded. They did – their worst result for 40 years. With the Mayoral vote still pending, it could prove a very black day for New Labour. Still after 11 years in government you take some wear and tear, mistakes are made, support disintegrates, people get disillusioned or just fed up with the same old faces.

And it doesn’t help when the much touted UK economic miracle that has notched up 60 consecutive quarters of growth is looking a good deal less miraculous. The progressive puncturing of inflated house prices, aided and abetted by a mortgage famine is exposing gradually testing the debt-laden underbelly of once enthusiastic consumers. British bank HBOS announced house prices fell by 3.7% annualised over the year to April. It is the worst housing market performance since 1993 and comes on top of a controversial scrapping of the 10% starter tax rate. Who’s to blame? The government, of course. Much to the delight of the Tories for whom the ERM debacle is now but a fading memory.

Regards,

Rob Mackrill
The Daily Reckoning

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This from The New York Times:

The prime minister of Thailand, Samak Sundaravej, said Wednesday that his government would try to create a cartel of rice-producing countries in partnership with Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos.

“We don’t aspire to be like OPEC, but we hope to be just a group of five to help each other in trading rice on the world market,” Mr. Samak was quoted as saying in The Nation newspaper.

Meanwhile, says The Wall Street Journal, food rationing and stockpiling is continuing in the US.

Stockpiling staples such as rice, meats and canned soup is coming into vogue again as food inflation and $3.60-a-gallon gasoline have consumers cutting the frequency of shopping trips — and loading up carts when they do shop. Sometimes shoppers are prodded by fears of impending food shortages, though none have yet materialized in the US.

Jason Simpkins in Money Morning says that “the price of rice has finally started to moderate this week, with rice futures sinking for a fifth straight day. Rice has retreated 11.6% on the Chicago Board of Trade since hitting an all-time high last Thursday.

“But this decline is likely just the start for rice prices, which have been artificially inflated by government controls and may continue to plummet by as much as 20%.”

According to Reuters: “Vietnam acted to quell panic over rice supplies on Monday, banning speculation in the market after a ‘chaotic’ buying binge in the Southeast Asian nation highlighted growing global fears about food security.

The move comes as protests spread through Africa over rising food prices, which aid experts have warned threaten to starve 100 people.
Rising food and grain prices have also caused thousands of investors to turn to the internet to search for an ETF for rice or a broader commodity ETF.

“Commodities, and soft agricultural commodities in particular, are not tied to stocks, bonds or currencies,” says The Sovereign Society’s Eric Roseman. “They’re not correlated to any of these markets directly. Therefore commodities provide a critical asset-allocation diversification strategy to traditional portfolios.

“Commodities feed on easy money or low rates, a declining dollar and most of all, falling production coupled by rising demand. That’s exactly what we’ve got in 2008.”

Back in March 2006, Eric was so excited about soft commodities he asked Jyske Bank in Denmark to create a guaranteed structured product to invest in a basket of agricultural commodities. Twenty-four months this fund is up 72%. To find out more and find out how to feed the world and your portfolio, click here.

Unfortunately, there is still no specific ETF for rice. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t any commodities ETFs to help investors profit from the rise in rice and grain prices.

“Commodity service-providers have launched a blizzard of commodities ETFs over the last 12 months,” says Eric Roseman in the Offshore A-Letter.

“These new ETFs allow both individual and institutional investors access to hot commodities like coffee, wheat, sugar and corn, to name only a few.

“It’s no wonder investors have poured an extra US$30 billion into commodities within the first 60 days of the year alone compared to just US$10 billion in 1998. The boom has arrived and everyone wants a piece of the action as the dollar slides, rates plunge and emerging markets feed their bustling infrastructure and populations.”

Global ETF specialist Mike Burnick is also bullish on commodities ETFs.

“I’m really excited about the relatively new class of ETFs that were launched just in the last few years that track commodities. As you know, commodities have been a red-hot investment over the last – really, over the last five or six years of this bull market. We’ve seen crude oil more than double; some of the industrial metals have more than tripled; gold is up above $950 an ounce.

“Now, on the London Stock Exchange, there’s a company that listed a whole series of ETFs that cover everything in the commodities sector that you could imagine. Everything from aluminum to zinc, and everything in between. I’m really excited about these agricultural commodities.”

Read Mike’s article on hot ETFs.

The price of rice, which has doubled in the past year, jumped 2.3% in Chicago today.

“Soft commodities are now the best-performing sub-set of the commodity bull market,” says Eric Roseman in the Offshore A-Letter.

“It’s the perfect storm for investors – especially when just about everything else in the investment world has continued to post big declines since last July.

“Commodity service-providers have launched a blizzard of commodities ETFs over the last 12 months. These new ETFs allow both individual and institutional investors access to hot commodities like coffee, wheat, sugar and corn, to name only a few.”