That’s a very simple statement, but it’s backed by three powerful points:

• Commodities tend to do well when more popular investments (with retail investors) are doing poorly, and when economic conditions are less than ideal.

• When the typical economic underpinnings are at play, a “Secular Bull Market” for commodities tends to last for about 17 years. And right now, the underpinnings are far from typical – and may even be exemplary, meaning this bull-market run could last a lot longer than the norm.

• And last, but not least, we’re only about nine years into this commodities bull market, meaning that there’s probably a lot more room to run – maybe eight years, and very like even more.

Amazingly, this powerful notion of the “Secular Market Cycle” – despite its tremendous profit potential – is largely unknown to the investment masses, and is rarely discussed by the mainstream business news media. Indeed, it’s so taken for granted that it’s almost a market secret…

If you’re a long-term investor, however, you’ll ultimately realize it’s one of the most lucrative strategies you have in your investing arsenal. And most amazing of all is that it’s easy to understand, easy to deploy and easy to profit from.

Let me explain.

Investing in Commodities & The Secret of the Secular Market Cycle

Why is this commodity investing strategy so special? Well, with a finite time to invest for your retirement, it’s crucial to recognize and understand what we like to refer to as the “Secular Market Cycle,” or “Secular Cycle,” for short.

As the chart shows, a Secular Cycle, from peak to trough, typically lasts about 17 to 20 years on average (the period depicted by the chart ends in 2004, but still perfectly illustrates our concept).

And there are essentially two types of cycles:

• The “Secular Bull Cycle,” during which regular stocks increase in value, and have their Price/Earnings (P/E) ratios (earnings multiples) expand. That means that stocks get more expensive.

• And the “Secular Bear Cycle,” during which stocks tend to experience a decline in both price and valuation, with P/Es that contract. At best, stock prices move sideways over an extended period, but still see their P/E multiples shrink, since corporate earnings are growing at a time when stock prices are stagnant.

For investors, one key problem is that an overall “Secular Cycle,” from trough to peak and back to trough, can take 35 years. That’s a big chunk of a person’s wage-earning years, meaning there’s little room for missteps.

Now, there’s no point in fighting a secular market trend – not if you want your investments to grow.

So it’s essential to determine where we are in the cycle, because that will dictate expected returns over the following decade or two. And since most people only spend about 40 years of their lives investing for retirement, not knowing about the “Secular Cycle” – much less where we are right now in the cycle – leads to guesswork, mistakes and losses, instead of the clear planning that will generate the best investment decisions and, ultimately, the biggest profits.

The last commodity cycle ended around 1980. Essentially, a prolonged period of high commodity prices encouraged producers to over-develop their resources. Demand never fell off. Instead, there was a massive oversupply, and the commodities party eventually ended. Prices got pushed off a cliff, so the entire sector became lean in a hurry as profit margins imploded.

We now know how long a typical Secular Bull or Bear market will last years. We also know that the last Secular Commodity Bull was launched roughly around 2000. That allows us to conclude that we’ve easily got between eight and 11 years to go before supply catches up with the burgeoning global demand that we’re seeing right now.

Investing in Commodities – Profit Plays to Consider Now

With class over, it’s time to put your newfound insights to work, searching out ways to earn the outsized profits that will be available from the Secular Bull Market for investing in commodities.

If you prefer individual stocks, you have to get to know BHP Billiton Ltd. ADR (NYSE:BHP). This $140 billion resources behemoth is the largest diversified mining company on earth. With an enviable balance sheet and cash flow, this producer of base metals, precious metals, diamonds and energy is way ahead of the pack. With a current P/E of 11.66, the stock isn’t bargain-basement cheap, but it still represents a good value. Besides, this is a stock that you’ll want to hold all the way to the very end of the Secular Cycle.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and exchange-traded notes (ETNs), on the other hand, provide investors with more direct exposure to commodity prices, as opposed to exposure to the stocks of the commodity-producing companies.

Finally, you’d be wise to get some gold exposure, too – gold miners can also be an excellent hedge against inflationary pressures.

In this case, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) – composed chiefly of major gold miners – offers both company and geographical diversification, while including substantial leverage to the price of gold. GDX is based on the AMEX Gold BUGS Index (HUI), which represents a portfolio of 15 major gold mining companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond a year and a half.

In the next couple of years, as U.S. and overseas economies recover, commodities producers will pay the price for recent major cuts in production, development and exploration – discovering it will be very tough to boost output even as global demand soars.

Shrewd investors will reap the benefit of those decisions: Those shortages will persist, providing quite a tailwind for soaring prices.

Just make sure that your sails are fully deployed.

The bottom line: As you go about rebalancing your portfolio – or continue rebuilding it as a result of the financial-crisis carnage – make sure to include room for a solid natural resources allocation.

Source: Investing in Commodities: How to Buy Gold During Secular Market Cycles

The global population is peaking and is consuming more food than it’s producing. This will make food scarcer and cause it to rise in price.

But there are more subtle reasons for investing in commodities right now. Rogers says that although stocks may touch crazy valuations in the near term, they may be in worthless currencies – a vista Notes readers will be familiar with. This from a recent interview with Rogers in the Economic Times:

Central banks all over the world have printed huge amounts of money, and the real economy is not strong enough for all this money to be absorbed… so, it’s going into stocks and real assets such as commodities. It’s a mistake what they are doing. It’s giving short-term pleasure, but there’s long-term pain as we are going to have much higher inflation, much higher interest rates and a worse economy down the road.

The American bond market is already beginning to go down dramatically as people realize that the American government has to sell huge amount of bonds, and secondly, there is going to be inflation, serious inflation, as it was always in the past when you had governments printing huge amounts of money.

The fiscal deluge is lifting stocks. But they’re getting frothy. And Rogers reckons the current upward trend won’t last.

It’s going to snap. Later this year, next year, we are going to have currency problems, maybe even a currency crisis. I don’t know with which currency — maybe with the pound sterling, maybe with the US dollar, who knows. It maybe with something none of us have at the moment. When you have a currency crisis, stocks will be affected, many things will be affected. It is not sound, what’s happening out there in the world.

In the 1930s, we had a huge stock market bubble which popped. And then politicians started making many mistakes. They became protectionist. They made solvent banks take over insolvent banks and then both banks failed in the end.

They are doing many of the same mistakes now. What’s different this time is that we are printing huge amounts of money which they did not print at that time. So, we are going to have inflation this time.

There are a number of ways to play this scenario with hard assets. But to keep things simple, you may want to focus on the following three market-beating commodities ETFs (hat tip ETF Trends).

1) The iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed ETF (NYSE:GSG), up 8.1% for the year

2) Notes’ old favorite, the PowerShares DB Agricultural Fund (NYSE:DBA), up 7.5% for the year

3) The Market Vectors-RVE Hard Asset Producers ETF (NYSE:HAP), up 25.9% for the year

This from Today’s Financial News:

Much of our popular technology is powered by lithium carbonate.

The compound has been used in the creation of heat-resistant glass, ceramics and alloy for aircraft.

It also sees effective use as a mood stabilizer and treatment for ALS (Lou Gehrig’s disease).

But it’s the rechargeable power needs of modern technological devices that made this lightest of all minerals a serious commodity for investors.

Lithium’s value has climbed with the sale of each laptop, PDA, cell phone, and iPod it inhabits.

Whether the motivation is gas prices, a desire to lower one’s carbon footprint, or a reluctance to further enriching nations in the Middle East, demand has increased for hybrid vehicles.

The ONLY practical option for rechargeable vehicles is the lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery.

Now, I say that knowing that Toyota has delayed the installation of Li-ion batteries due to some safety concerns it’s working on resolving. The corrosive quality of lithium gives it the potential to short-circuit in batteries and catch fire.

And there are aging issues with Li-ion batteries and the technology to recycle them is not in place.

These challenges have researchers at hundreds of companies competing to perfect their version of the battery.

But what makes Li-ion batteries so perfect for cars is that they are lightweight and can store more than twice the amount of energy (110 –130 watt hours per kilogram) when compared to its biggest competitor, nickel-metal-hydride (NiMh) batteries.

They also lose power at a slower rate than other batteries between uses.

In August 2008, Mitsubishi Motors Corp. announced it was partnering with GS Yuasa to complete a manufacturing plant for lithium-ion batteries. The company anticipates that demand will increase fivefold to meet the needs of electric vehicles. The new facility is slated to open in the spring – the same time the company expects to launch its Mitsubishi I-MiEV electronic compact car.

Nissan will use Li-ion batteries for the 65,000 hybrids they hope to manufacture by 2010.

Most of the next generation hybrids like GM’s Chevy Volt and Saturn Vue Green Line, and Mercedes’ hybrid version of its S-Class sedan, are planning to use Li-ion batteries.

About the element

Though not uncommon, lithium appears in low concentrations and is typically interwoven with other minerals.

The largest commercial deposits currently mined are in Chile and Argentina. China, Russia, Australia and the U.S. are working to pickup production.

And the amount of lithium carbonate required for a car battery is about 100 times that needed for a laptop.

Bottom line?

• Lithium demand will skyrocket as more and more hybrids roll down the assembly line.
• Current processing potential is limited, making it vulnerable to market disruption.

And limited supplies could mean big profits for lithium miners and processors.

How to play this soon-to-be strategic commodity

In current market conditions, it is possible this renewable technology cannot be explored to the degree anticipated.

But in the longer term, investing in this evolution could bring triple-digit gains in just a few years.

The best way to play it?

New manufacturers are cropping up daily with ever-improved versions of the Li-ion battery. The competition is fierce and it’s difficult to know who will come out on top.

Instead, for our first pick, we are going directly to the source…

Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (ADR) (NYSE:SQM) is based in Chile and is a leading producer of lithium carbonate. The company also sells specialty plant nutrition products, iodines and derivatives and other industrial chemicals.

This past October, the company reported a revenue growth of 56% for the first 9 months of 2008 when compared to the same period in 2007.

Website: http://www.sqm.cl/aspx/en/Default.aspx
Market Cap: $7.04B
P/E: 16.42
Forward P/E: 13.58
Recommendation: Buy shares under $30 and hold for the long-term.

Our second selection is a supplier of the battery manufacturers…

Polypore International, Inc. (NYSE:PPO) is a U.S.-based manufacturer of mono- and multilayer membrane separators for lithium batteries – including those used in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs).

Website: http://www.polypore.net/
Market Cap: $316.83M
P/E: 7.07
Forward P/E: 9.28
Recommendation: Buy shares under $8.25 and hold for the long-term.

Both these companies have good fundamentals and great potential. We urge you to check them out and see if they are right for your portfolio.

Source: Lithium: The commodity with a profitable future

You shouldn’t be one of them – at least not if you took our advice to buy gold stocks, as we’ve suggested for some time now.

If so, you’ve likely enjoyed double- and triple-digit returns since September. And there’s more to come for gold. But be careful. The price of gold and gold shares will not move up in a straight line. Here’s why…

Massive Stimulus = Three Huge Rallies In The Next 12 Months

Over the next few months, the talk will be of deflation, not inflation. Actually, what people should be talking about is “disinflation.” That means the slower growth in prices, not necessarily the technical definition of deflation, which is when prices actually fall and are expected to fall further.

Monetary policy does not have immediate effects. But the Fed’s new policy to buy any and all securities by way of its massive balance sheet should act as a major stimulus to the market by mid-summer.

Add to this a massive stimulus package, which will be announced on January 21, as soon as President-elect Obama is behind the desk at the Oval Office… and you have the makings for three major rally points in the coming 12 months.

Rally #1: Gold and silver

Rally #2: Commodities

Rally #3: Financial and insurance stocks

Let’s see why…

Gold

Gold will rally because of the very simple fact that the Fed and governments around the world cannot print so much money without debasing their respective currencies.

This is not idle conjecture. It will happen.

Paper is infinite… gold is not. And the balance could send gold – and gold shares – to the moon in coming years.

What should you do?

Wait for the inevitable pullbacks in gold and gold shares to load up. We’re talking about companies like Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) here.

These pull backs will come when the numbers that come out in the coming months, which will continue to point to more slowdown.

Remember, monetary policy takes time to trickle down, usually 6 to 9 months.

Commodities

Commodities will rally on the back on infrastructure spending and demand for oil and gasoline, which will be ignited by government policy and the increased consumption by consumers as low prices act as an incentive to use more oil.

What should you do?

Selectively invest in infrastructure shares and to buy oil and oil related companies. In this area, we’re looking at General Electric (NYSE: GE), which also just reaffirmed its 2008 profit forecast and 2009 dividend payment plan, as well as refiners like Tesoro (NYSE: TSO).

Financials

Finally, financial stocks will benefit (those that have survived, of course), as the government buys more of their assets, thus cleansing their balance sheets and income statements in future quarters.

What should you do?

In bailing out Citigroup (NYSE: C) shareholders, the U.S. Treasury sent a strong signal that it will not allow major failures and it will not penalize shareholders either.

Banks will also benefit from the spread between their borrowing costs at the Fed window, which will be low for some time to come, and the rate at which they lend the money out (when they start lending again in earnest).

Don’t expect great results in the first or second quarter, but look for opportunities to buy financials on major dips. Consider re-financing your mortgage, too, as you may see sub-4% mortgage rates in the near future.

The Smart Profits Bottom Line

The moves by the Fed and foreign governments are unprecedented.

They are lowering interest rates and printing money – not just to stimulate economic growth, but also to fight off a Depression.

Will they succeed? Most likely, yes. And that means you’ll want to be on the right side of the reflation that will occur in the months and years ahead.

At the Xcelerated Profits Report, we’ve taken positions in all three of the above-mentioned sectors in order to grow wealth. So can you – and we’ll show you how to do it like the pros do. Faster and with less risk than the regular crowd. For more information, click here.

Source: Federal Reserve Slashes Interest Rates Again… Why You Should Go For Gold, Commodities, And Financials