John Crooks says currencies dependent on commodities are in for a very tough 2009. He says weak global demand and a marked slowdown in China will keep commodity prices low. And that’s bad news for resource-rich Australia. John says a looming recession, widening trade deficit and interest rate cuts will send the Aussie dollar plummeting this year.
No one really knows how long the global recession will last, but based on a recent article it may persist longer than predicted. The message to investors, therefore, is that bonds and gold may be the best way to ride out the storm instead of trying to cherry pick winners.
Swings in commodity prices are often exaggerated in both directions, says Eric Roseman. And that’s exactly what we have seen with crude oil prices this year. But Eric says most of the destruction in demand is now priced in. But long-term supply will still be tight. That’s why we should be near the bottom of the oil cycle, with potentially massive gains for investors that by now.
Americans might rejoice as fuel prices tumble. But it means catastrophe for Russia. Its stock market is already down 80% this year, and Andrew Snyder says the country faces more economic woes in 2009. That’s why he recommends shorting the Market Vectors Russian ETF (NYSE:RSX).
Copper prices have fallen off a cliff since June, and not even China’s massive stimulus has bucked the trend. But Sara Nunnally says one Chilean mining firm is still planning a major expansion in production over the coming years. This could mean big profits for the company’s three major financial backers (AAUK, XTA, MITSY)… provided they survive the current commodity slump.
Canada’s resource-rich economy is feeling the strain of tumbling commodity prices and falling demand in the US. And that’s bad news for the Canadian dollar. J. Christoph Amberger says the days of parity with the US dollar are long gone. He thinks it’s time to short the loonie.
The plummeting price of oil could cause another source of capital to dry up: the Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) of the Persian Gulf. This could be another blow for global credit markets, says Irwin Greenstein. These oil-rich funds fueled with petrodollars invested trillions over the past few years, notably with high-profile infusions of billions in CitiGroup, Carlyle Group, Merrill Lynch and the Nasdaq Stock Market.