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Inflation May Show It’s Ugly Head, Big Week for Bank Earnings

Christian Hill — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 15:00:33 +0000

Monday

Earnings Announcements: Novellus (NVLS)

Tuesday
Economic Reports: Core PPI, PPI, Retail Sales

Will this be the month that we finally see inflation take hold? If expectations come true, it very well could be. PPI is anticipated to show an increase of nearly 1%. Core PPI (which excludes food and energy costs) is expected to show an increase of 0.10%. Retail Sales are expected to post a surprising increase. Most reports I have seen show that retailers are still struggling. I don’t expect this report to beat expectations.

Earnings Announcements: Goldman Sachs (GS), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Yum Brands (YUM)

Wednesday
Economic Reports: Core CPI, CPI

The CPI is expected to show an increase of 0.60%, and Core CPI an increase of 0.10%. If both CPI and PPI meet expectations, we could be in for the start of a long bout of inflation.

Earnings Announcement: Abbott Labs (ABT)

Thursday
Economic Report: Philadelphia Fed

If we meet expectations this month with the Philadelphia Fed report, it will mark 19 out of the last 20 months showing a negative reading. Last month we almost saw a positive reading, but this month we slipped back a little bit. The good news is the decline is slowing and has bounced back considerably in the past few months.

Earnings Announcement: Baxter Int’l (BAX), Harley-Davidson (HOG), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Google (GOOG), IBM (IBM)

Friday
Economic Calendar: Building Permits, Housing Starts

Housing this week is a mixed bag. Permits are expected to increase and starts are expected to decrease. I would expect both reports to miss estimates. While we are in the midst of the traditional building season in the northern states, I just can’t see the housing industry adding more inventory.

Earnings Announcements: Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), General Electric (GE)

Source: Inflation May Show It’s Ugly Head, Big Week for Bank Earnings

A Big Week for Retailers, Will Inflation Be Held In Check?

Christian Hill — Mon, 11 May 2009 14:15:41 +0000

This is the first major report coming out this week, and could have a real impact on the markets. Expectations are for a decline in sales since last month, albeit at a slower rate than previous months.

Tuesday

Earnings Announcements: AMAT

Wednesday

Economic Reports: Retail Sales

I’ve mentioned it before, but until Americans feel confident about the future of the economy, they won’t spend money. A slowing decline could show some hope that things are bottoming out. Tied into this report, and worth noting, is the large number of clothing retailers that are reporting this week (Macy’s, Nordstrom’s, JC Penney, Abercrombie and Fitch, Kohl’s, and American Apparel), and Wal-Mart’s earnings are announced on Thursday.

Earnings Announcements: FRE

Thursday

Economic Calendar: PPI, Core PPI

It looks as if inflation has been kept under control for at least another month. Both the PPI and Core PPI readings that are announced on Thursday are expected to show only the slightest increases since last month. We know inflation will start creeping in soon; it’s just a matter of when.

Earnings Announcements: WMT

Friday

Economic Reports: CPI, Core CPI, Industrial Production, Michigan Sentiment

As mentioned above, inflation has been held in check, and the CPI and Core CPI announcements that come out on Friday are expected to show little to no change since last month.

The Industrial Production report (and Capacity Utilization) for April are expected to show more sobering numbers. The manufacturing sector is going nowhere fast. Until these readings turn positive, any economic rally will be short lived.

Finally, the preliminary Michigan Sentiment report for May is released on Friday. Expectations are for a very small drop since last month. With the market moving up over the last few months, and the Fed stating that they see and end to the economic downturn by the end of the year, I think this report will surprise to the positive side. Nothing major, just a slight improvement.

Source: A Big Week for Retailers, Will Inflation Be Held In Check?

FOMC Statement Highlights The Week … Will The Fed Be Left With One Bullet?

Christian Hill — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 16:14:16 +0000

Well we have made it to the end of another year, and this one has been quite a ride. This is the last full trading week of the year, so barring a huge rally, the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P will all end the year with losses north of 30 percent.

With that being said, the calendar this week is full of some important reports that could set the tone for the early part of next year.

On Tuesday, the Building Permits report for November is released, and is anticipated to show only a slight decline of around 8k units. I am not sure if this is simply due to the seasonal slowdown of building in northern climates, or if perhaps builders have finally found an equilibrium point with the market, but I view it as a positive sign if the number holds close to expectations.

The same can be said about the November Housing Starts report that comes out at the same time. A decline is expected, but again, it could just be do to seasonal issues (you can’t build in northern climates when the ground is frozen) rather than a worsening housing sector.

The big reports of the week are the November CPI and Core CPI figures. Much like last week’s PPI and Core PPI reports, the Core CPI figure is expected to show a slight increase while the CPI figure will likely show a continued drop. Energy costs (oil) continue to drop, and this will be reflected in the CPI figure.

The Philly Fed report comes out Thursday morning, and it looks like reality has set in again. As I reported last month, expectations for the November report were for a rather large improvement versus October. Well not only did that not come true, but the report was actually worse than October. This month, expectations are for a slight decline.

The attention grabber this week is the FOMC Policy Statement on Tuesday. As it stands, expectations are for a huge rate cut. Currently the Fed Funds rate is 1.00%, and the probability chart shows a 65 percent chance of a cut down to 0.25%. This is especially shocking for two reasons. One is the shear size of the cut, which would be three-quarters of a percent. The second aspect is that if the cut is down to 0.25%, it leaves only one more bullet left in the gun for the Fed to cut rates.

Source: FOMC Statement Highlights The Week … Will The Fed Be Left With One Bullet?

Dollar Firms as Producer Prices Soar

Doug Casey — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 18:05:39 +0000

In the currency market, the dollar posted a modest gain against the euro. Late Tuesday, the euro was trading at $1.5791 vs. $1.5803 on Monday.

The Labor Department reported that the producer price index surged by 1.1% in March, far more than the 0.4% gain predicted by economists. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2%, in line with expectations.

John Ryding, U.S. chief economist for Bear Stearns, expects the Fed to cut the funds rate by only a quarter-point later this month. “Inflation is everywhere within this report,” Ryding wrote. “Fed policy is stuck between the rock of recession and the hard place of rising inflation pressures.”

It’ll opt for the hard place, said Mike Englund, of Action Economics. “The Fed has abandoned the luxury of addressing the inflation threat for now,” he said, “but hefty price gains will likely still be a problem, even after the problems of turmoil in the financial market are resolved.”

And the futures market is pricing in a 32% chance of a half-point rate cut when the Fed meets April 29, down from 44% on Monday. A quarter-point cut is fully priced in.