Do Corporate Insiders Really Have All the Answers?

Let’s start with an obvious fact: To a great extent, the future is always cloudy. Corporate insiders don’t know what the market is going to do any more than you or me.

For example, Vickers was already ringing the alarm back in July, noting that insider selling to buying was 4.16-to-1, the highest ratio since the market’s all-time high in October 2007.

Jonathan Moreland, editor of Insider Insights, concluded at the time that insider behavior “seems totally inconsistent with this rally continuing unabated.”

Yet that’s exactly what’s happened in the two months since.

It’s important to understand that there is no piece of data – or combination of data – that will tell you in advance what the market is going to do. You might as well put on your lab coat and start trying to turn iron into gold.

Why Form 4 is Important When Watching Corporate Insider Activity

History shows that corporate insiders have excellent predictive powers, but not about the market. Sometimes they turn bullish long before the market bottoms. Sometimes they sell heavily way before the market tops.

What is important, however, is what companies they’re buying. (You’ll notice they’re not plunking for index funds.)

The unfair advantage that insiders have is a lot of material, non-public information about their own companies. That’s why they’re required to file a Form 4 with the SEC within two days of any purchase or sale of their own company’s shares.

What do corporate insiders know that you don’t? Plenty…

Corporate Insiders Profit From Vital Information… And You Can, Too

Corporate insiders have access to crucial information that other investors don’t. For example…

• Top executives and board members generally know the direction of sales since the last quarterly report.
• They know whether the company has gained or lost any key customers or employees.
• They know of any new products or services that are about to be announced.
• They know of any unexpected expenses, legal problems, or whether there is about to be a product recall.
• They know whether the company is ripe to receive an unsolicited takeover bid.

It pays to keep a close eye on what insiders are doing. Not so you can know what the market will do, but because you can discover which stocks are most undervalued (and therefore likely to outperform the market).

It’s tough to get a better buy signal than when you see top executives buying significant amounts of their own company’s stock with their own money at current market prices.

Just remember: The important factor is not the aggregate ratio of insider sellers to buyers in the market. It’s how heavy and widespread the insider buying is at those companies that are experiencing it.

History shows that those stocks are likely to be superior investments, no matter what the market has in store.

Good investing,

Alex Green

Source: What Corporate Insiders Are Telling Us