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		<title>Four Ways to Protect Your 401(K) From the Ongoing Financial Crisis</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/four-ways-to-protect-your-retirement-from-the-ongoing-financial-crisis/7333</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/four-ways-to-protect-your-retirement-from-the-ongoing-financial-crisis/7333#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Oct 2008 12:58:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jennifer Yousfi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=7333</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>In the depths of a bear market that has carved between $500 billion and $2 trillion from U.S. retirement accounts so far this year, as many as two-thirds of all Americans have stopped contributing to their retirement plans, a new study shows.</p>
<p>And that’s precisely the wrong decision to make at the wrong time. No matter how poorly the financial markets are performing, saving for retirement has to remain a top priority.</p>
<p>“It’s not a time for people to stop contributing,” Diane Young, director of retirement and goal planning at TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AAMTD">AMTD</a>), the Omaha, Neb.-based brokerage firm that conducted the retirement study, said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “Because time is money, it’s important to stay on track.”</p>
<p>According&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the depths of a bear market that has carved between $500 billion and $2 trillion from U.S. retirement accounts so far this year, as many as two-thirds of all Americans have stopped contributing to their retirement plans, a new study shows.</p>
<p>And that’s precisely the wrong decision to make at the wrong time. No matter how poorly the financial markets are performing, saving for retirement has to remain a top priority.</p>
<p>“It’s not a time for people to stop contributing,” Diane Young, director of retirement and goal planning at TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AAMTD">AMTD</a>), the Omaha, Neb.-based brokerage firm that conducted the retirement study, said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “Because time is money, it’s important to stay on track.”</p>
<p>According to the Ameritrade study – released yesterday (Tuesday) – 63% of Americans have completely stopped contributing to their retirement plan. Financial strain due to the economic downturn was cited by half (50%) of those who say they have reduced or stopped contributing to their retirement plan. Unemployment (32%) and healthcare costs (25%) also were cited as key factors affecting their ability to contribute to their retirement plan.</p>
<p>Only 54% of survey respondents, which included senior citizens, indicated they had a retirement account. Of that number, one out of three had less than $50,000 in investment assets.</p>
<p>But slacking off on retirement savings now is only going to hurt you more down the road.<br />
Chipping Away at Retirement Assets</p>
<p>Giving up the power of compounding can be the most costly mistake an investor can make when it comes to investing for retirement, but unfortunately that’s just what many are doing in light of the dismal market performance.</p>
<p>And those dismal returns aren’t the only factor hammering the bottom line of retirement accounts these days. Retirees and those close to retirement are feeling as if they are under attack from all sides due to the factors that threaten a comfortable retirement.</p>
<p>The main source of income for many retirees continues to be the Social Security Administration. But the Social Security program has been at risk for years as life expectancies continue to grow and the number of retirees advances in kind. The program will only come under more pressure as the baby boomer generation edges closer to retirement.</p>
<p>&#8220;Social Security’s current annual surpluses of tax income over expenditures will begin to decline in 2011 and then turn into rapidly growing deficits as the baby boom generation retires,&#8221; the most recent trustees’ report said.</p>
<p>Many retirees depend on dividend payments from investments to supplement income. But with a growing number of companies reducing or eliminating dividend payments in the face of poor earnings or a changing business landscape, that income stream is dwindling.</p>
<p>Even companies with long track records of dividend growth, such as General Electric Co. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AGE">GE</a>) and Bank of America Corp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ABAC">BAC</a>), have been paring back.</p>
<p>Given the current market conditions, selling a stock that has eliminated its dividend is no longer as likely to make up for that lost income.</p>
<p>“If I’m down 25% in dividend income, but the stock is down 35%, if I sell the stock, can I afford to lose another 10 to 15% by selling?&#8221; Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst with Standard &amp; Poor’s, told The Associated Press. “Younger investors can wait the market out and sell the stock when it bounces back. But older people are really stuck in a bad spot.”</p>
<p>Companies with poor earnings are also cutting back on company contributions to 401(k) plans, which can downright wreck your expected retirement calculations. General Motors Corp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AGM">GM</a>) recently announced that it would discontinue company-matching contributions for non-union employees until economic conditions improve.</p>
<p>According to a recent survey by Watson Wyatt Worldwide Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AGM">WW</a>), 2% of companies surveyed have already decreased 401(k) contributions, while another 4% are planning to do so in the 2009.</p>
<p>Retirees with defined benefit or pension plans aren’t in much better shape.</p>
<p>According to Adrian Hartshorn, an actuary with Mercer, a business consultant subsidiary of Marsh &amp; McLennan Companies Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=MMC">MMC</a>), the pension account assets of companies in the S&amp;P 1500 are shrinking. At the end of 2007, the companies Hartshorn tracks had a collective surplus of $60 billion. But stock-market losses have transformed that $60 billion surplus into a $35 billion deficit.<br />
Protecting Your Retirement</p>
<p>If you find yourself the victim of a cutback in company contributions or a loss of dividend income, make sure you take the initiative to safeguard your retirement.</p>
<p>“Redo your financial planning and figure out if you need to save more now,” Robyn Credico, Watson Wyatt’s national director of defined-benefit consulting, told The Washington Post.</p>
<p>Here are some more steps you can take to help protect your retirement account, even during difficult market conditions:</p>
<p>* Be Aware: AARP’s website has a number of interactive financial calculators that will help you estimate everything from how much you need to save for retirement to how much income you can expect during retirement. While you want a long and healthy life, you don’t want to outlive your money, so be sure you don’t underestimate your time horizon.</p>
<p>* Be Proactive: If you think you’re going to come up short when it’s time for retirement, reconsider your options. Some workers are delaying retirement to give their assets more time to grow. Other retirees are supplementing their income with part-time work or curbing expenses by cutting back on unnecessary expenditures.</p>
<p>* Be Thrifty: Save as much as you can. Make sure you’re getting the most out of your company 401(k) plan by maximizing the company match. And try to save the maximum annual limit for your company’s 410(k) plan or your traditional IRA. Contributions to your retirement account often reduce your taxable income, so it might not be as much of a sacrifice as you think. Indeed, some investors do double damage to themselves by ending their retirement plan contributions, but forgetting to also adjust their tax withholding. That can make for an ugly surprise at tax time – either with a smaller-than-expected tax refund or a bigger-than-expected tax bill.</p>
<p>* Be Investment Savvy: Align your retirement investments with your time horizon and risk tolerance. Generally, younger investors can tolerate more risk, while those closer to retirement need to choose more stable options. <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links">Money Morning</a> Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald recently recommended American Century Capital Preservation Fund (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=CPFXX">CPFXX</a>) as a “safety-first” investment choice for investors close to retirement. And don’t be overly dependent on dividend income or a company pension fund, both of which could be affected by overall poor market conditions or weak company earnings.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/10/29/retirement-assets/">Source: Four Ways to Protect Your Retirement From the Ongoing Financial Crisis</a></p>
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		<title>Avoid The Fallout From &#8216;Imploding&#8217; Hedge Funds</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/avoid-the-fallout-from-imploding-hedge-funds/7216</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/avoid-the-fallout-from-imploding-hedge-funds/7216#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Oct 2008 14:26:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Keith Fitz-Gerald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CME]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commodities markets]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[credit crisis]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=7216</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The wild market swings of late are most likely down to hedge funds says <strong>Keith Fitz-Gerald</strong>. These big money movers are liquidating assets to meet margin calls, causing chaos in the markets. Keith has four tips on how to dodge the worst of the damage.</p>
<p>He says it is essential to guard against today&#8217;s downside risks with trailing stops, inverse ETFs, and put options.</p>
<p>And every investor should have a plan to re-engage with the markets when this financial storm passes.</p>
<p>This from <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links">Money Morning</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>As the worst financial crisis in recorded market history rocks Wall Street, millions of investors on Main Street keep asking a single question.</p>
<p>When will this end?</p>
<p>The market volatility is unprecedented: Where professional traders once ranked a day as “wild”&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The wild market swings of late are most likely down to hedge funds says <strong>Keith Fitz-Gerald</strong>. These big money movers are liquidating assets to meet margin calls, causing chaos in the markets. Keith has four tips on how to dodge the worst of the damage.</p>
<p>He says it is essential to guard against today&#8217;s downside risks with trailing stops, inverse ETFs, and put options.</p>
<p>And every investor should have a plan to re-engage with the markets when this financial storm passes.</p>
<p>This from <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links">Money Morning</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>As the worst financial crisis in recorded market history rocks Wall Street, millions of investors on Main Street keep asking a single question.</p>
<p>When will this end?</p>
<p>The market volatility is unprecedented: Where professional traders once ranked a day as “wild” if we witnessed a 300-point swing, in recent months we’ve seen 600- and 700-point swings on a regular basis. On Oct. 9, a Thursday, we rode out a record-setting swing of 1,000 points.</p>
<p>That wild backdrop is bad enough. At the same time, however, the major market indices are heading lower – at times with a speed and ferocity never before seen. But the real killer is that there is seemingly nowhere to hide.</p>
<p>This is what Wall Street’s Armani Army doesn’t tell you about traditional diversification: It doesn’t work when everything goes down at once. (The one exception is the specialized inverse investment vehicles that we’ve repeatedly counseled you to employ precisely to prevent this kind of total freefall. Two examples that we’ve mentioned numerous times were the <strong>Rydex Inverse S&amp;P 500  Strategy Fund </strong>(MUTF:<a title="Open a new browser window to find out more" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Ryurx&amp;hl=en" target="_blank">RYURX</a>) and  the ultra-aggressive “2X” <strong>ProShares UltraShort Financials</strong> (AMEX:<a title="Open a new browser window to find out more" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=skf" target="_blank">SKF</a>) exchange-traded funds).</p>
<p>Most noticeably, of course, was last Friday’s trading, which began after an overnight bloodbath in the markets overseas. A notice from the CME Group Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ACME">CME</a>) that <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_contract">stock index futures  contracts</a> were “<a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/limitdown.asp">limit  down</a>” – meaning they’d achieved their maximum allowable downward move for U.S. stocks even started trading for the day – didn’t help much.</p>
<p>While much of this is commonly explained away as a panic reaction to the news, the reality is that it’s primarily a financial panic that’s driving this market action lately. And, just in case you recall my comments a few weeks ago about not having seen <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/10/11/market-fear/">the hair on fire  selling</a> I thought lay ahead, this is exactly what I was referring to.</p>
<p>This time around, ironically, it’s not panic from normally flighty retail investors that’s causing the markets to go haywire. Instead, it’s the big boys that are apparently panicking.</p>
<p>My experience suggests that one or more hedge  funds have imploded. Whether by <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/10/14/treasury-deparment/">margin call</a> or redemption proceedings is a moot point. We won’t know for sure until much later next week when the newspapers finally catch up, but the massive swings we saw in currencies, gold and other commodities are certainly consistent with an unprecedented liquidation – and a forced one at that. Perhaps even more than one.</p>
<p>Long the domain of hedge funds and their uber rich clientele, many hedge funds were over-weighted in these categories in recent months in an attempt to chase performance. Overweighting, in case you’re not familiar with the term, means they’ve made excess investments in those areas. And chasing performance means they’re trying to create higher returns by making disproportionately larger bets than they would otherwise. Part of this could be from simply trying to generate larger performance fees, but it could just as easily be attributed to anxious managers placing ever-larger bets in an attempt to make up losses (most hedge funds are under water this year).</p>
<p>Where this gets fund managers in trouble is when  they make these over-weighted bets by using <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_leverage">leverage</a>. You’ve probably heard this term a lot lately. In case you don’t understand what it really means, let me digress for a moment to explain it. Leveraging up (or simply “levering” to those in the industry) means using borrowed money to control a huge pile of assets that you wouldn’t otherwise be able to control.</p>
<p>In recent years, for instance, it wasn’t unusual for a hedge fund to lever up 30 to 1, meaning for every $1 dollar they invested they borrowed $29. As a result, a fund with $100 million under management could control $300 million or more of investable assets. I’ve heard of some funds running 50 to 1, while currency traders routinely run 100 to 1.</p>
<p>While using other people’s money dramatically enhances the potential for higher returns, it really enhances the potential for massive losses. Where this gets them into trouble is that a fund running 30 to 1 only has to lose 3% of the $30 worth of equity to get wiped out, as in <a href="http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/kaput">kaput</a>.</p>
<p>Somewhere along the way, as bad turns to worse  and performance deteriorates, a hedge fund’s creditors will place a <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margincall.asp">margin call</a>, meaning they want the hedge fund to pony up more collateral or return the money it was loaned. Or, investors will place redemption requests meaning they want out. Either way, this forces the operator of a hedge fund to raise money any way it can.</p>
<p>If a given hedge fund does not have enough cash to meet the margin calls or redemption requests, they have to raise cash by selling assets. And they typically start with the most liquid stuff like gold, currencies and commodities. At first, the sales progression will be orderly, but as I suspect was the case last Friday (and on many big down days recently where chaos ruled), it will rapidly deteriorate into a fire sale where the hedge funds involved dump everything they can at any price just to get out.</p>
<p>And that’s where their problems affect you and  me.</p>
<p>As scores of highly leveraged hedge funds dump billions of dollars worth of holdings at once, they effectively “flood” the markets with whatever the asset is that they are trying to sell. In doing so, they push the values down for the rest of us.</p>
<p>For an example, imagine a house in your neighborhood selling for 50% of its appraised value. Upon completion of the sale, all “comparables” in the area, including your own home, will likely take a hit as a result. So it’s in everybody’s interest to keep prices as high as possible.</p>
<p>But nobody can do that when there are more homes  than buyers – even in the best neighborhoods.<br />
So when is it going to stop?</p>
<p>We don’t know. No one does. Hedge funds are notoriously secretive in their reporting, so even though there are estimates as to how much they own and (by implication) how much they owe, it’s hard to gain perspective on how much leverage is actually being used. Nor do we really know who holds what asset – especially as it relates to potential liquidations.</p>
<p>Over the weekend, rumors were flying that U.S.  Federal Reserve examiners are hounding <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=3609292">Citadel Investment Group  LLC</a> regarding “<a href="http://www.investorwords.com/1169/counterparty_risk.html">counterparty  risk</a>” and its exposure to debt. Citadel, naturally, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/forexNews/idUSTRE49N8OG20081025">vehemently  denies this</a>, but lately where there’s smoke, there’s certainly been the  potential for fire.</p>
<p>[...] The bottom line is this: What should we do for now?</p>
<p>That’s actually the easy part even though it may  not feel like it.</p>
<p>1. If you’re retired, take a good hard look at how much money you really need for the next five to 10 years. Talk to your financial advisor and, if needed, take some risk off the table. Move what you need into cash, or such safety-first choices like the <strong>American Century Capital Preservation Fund</strong> (MUTF:<a title="Open a new browser window to find out more" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=CPFXX" target="_blank">CPFXX</a>). Do not own anything you would not want to have in your portfolio if the stock markets were to be shut down for a short time.</p>
<p>2. If you’re not retired – but are close – and have properly diversified your money to something akin to the 50-40-10 structure we advocate (50% base-builders, 40% global growth and income, 10% speculative), hang in there. And remember, this is exactly why we diversified our holdings in the first place – to get through the rough spots. It’s just that this is perhaps the roughest most of us have ever seen.</p>
<p>3. Stick to your plan. Hopefully that includes the disciplined use of trailing stops to capture gains and minimize losses, as well as specialized inverse holdings that profit with each further decline. And don’t forget options to hedge existing risks.</p>
<p>4. Above all else, make sure you have a plan – as we do – for re-engaging the markets when the coast is all clear. It may be awhile before we reach that point, but it’s important to maintain your upside potential in a down market. When the train leaves the station, the one place you don’t want to be is left behind on the platform. Studies like those from <a href="http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.home/home/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.html">Standard  &amp; Poor’s</a> show that investors can typically make up 80% or more of bear market losses within the first year of a recovery, once that recovery actually arrives.</p></blockquote>
<p>Source:  	  <a class="titleref" href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/10/28/carry-trade/">Four Ways to Sidestep the Damage Wall Street’s Big Money  Movers are Inflicting on Main Street</a></p>
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