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		<title>Britain Is Following America Down A Rocky Economic Road</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/britain-is-following-america-down-a-rocky-economic-road/1980</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/britain-is-following-america-down-a-rocky-economic-road/1980#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 May 2008 14:12:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Martin Denholm</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Rental  car or train? It&#8217;s  a question I face every time I head back to England, trying to figure out the  best way to travel. And  after doing a few sums, there was no contest.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">While driving would have offered more freedom and the chance to crank up the CD player, I didn&#8217;t fancy paying the equivalent of $9.75 a gallon for gasoline, in addition to rental charges. So although the train was hardly cheap &#8211; £90 ($176) for the return trip from Southampton to Liverpool &#8211; it was much easier on the wallet. Particularly a wallet already getting hammered because of the awful dollar-pound exchange rate.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Yes, Britain is still in the same shape as the last time I went: Bloody&#8230;</font></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Rental  car or train? It&#8217;s  a question I face every time I head back to England, trying to figure out the  best way to travel. And  after doing a few sums, there was no contest.</font><span id="more-1980"></span></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">While driving would have offered more freedom and the chance to crank up the CD player, I didn&#8217;t fancy paying the equivalent of $9.75 a gallon for gasoline, in addition to rental charges. So although the train was hardly cheap &#8211; £90 ($176) for the return trip from Southampton to Liverpool &#8211; it was much easier on the wallet. Particularly a wallet already getting hammered because of the awful dollar-pound exchange rate.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Yes, Britain is still in the same shape as the last time I went: Bloody expensive! But although it&#8217;s enduring several similar economic problems as the US, that hasn&#8217;t stopped a significant Anglo-American corporate merger&#8230;</font></p>
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<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"><strong>Fine With 5&#8230; For Now</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Having cut interest rates three times since December &#8211; from 5.75% to 5% &#8211; the Bank of England&#8217;s Monetary Policy Committee decided to hold fire this time around.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">But with more bad economic data this week, many don&#8217;t expect the status quo to last long. In fact, the bankers could chop again as soon as next month. Consider this:</font></p>
<ul type="disc">
<li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">The Chartered Institute for Purchasing and Supply said the British service sector grew at the slowest rate in five years in April.</font></li>
<li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">The Office for National Statistics reported that Britain&#8217;s manufacturing sector output dropped 0.5% in March &#8211; the worst performance in six months.</font></li>
<li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">The number of mortgage lending approvals has halved over the past year, leaving many homebuyers unable to get financing at an affordable price. In addition, the number of first-quarter home repossession orders shot up by 17% over Q1 2007.</font></li>
<li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">First quarter GDP growth crawled in at 0.4%, compared with the 0.6% rate over the final three months of 2007. It was the weakest quarter-over-quarter growth rate since the first quarter of 2005.</font></li>
</ul>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Like the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England is trying to balance poor economic data against high inflation. The current UK inflation rate is 2.5% &#8211; 0.5% higher than the government&#8217;s 2% target.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">And with the British Retail Consortium reporting that food costs are up 4.7% over this time last year, British households are now spending almost one-third of their income on food and bills. One possible reason why the bank left rates unchanged is because it fears a poor inflation number next week and another cut would make it look irresponsible. </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"><strong>Britain Following In America&#8217;s Footsteps&#8230; And The Bankers Are Divided</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Many economists agree that the UK economy is mirroring the US &#8211; and with its performance just a few quarters behind the US, the current situation could get worse.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">That&#8217;s  a view shared by Bank of England&#8217;s most <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dove.asp" target="_blank">dovish</a> monetary policy board member, David Blanchflower, who favors low interest rates over a potential inflationary spike. He says the risk of not being more aggressive with rate cuts could send the UK economy down the same rocky path as America, triggering a sharp economic downturn.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">But at least the Bank of England has one advantage. Having seen how the Fed has handled the crisis, it has a better idea of what steps to take to avoid a similar blow-up.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">However, the April meeting showed the bankers are split. While six of the nine members favored the interest rate cut, two voted for no change and one (Blanchflower) wanted a larger chop to 4.75%.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">While they debate, though, Britain&#8217;s stock market has actually performed well over the past few months. In fact, since the Bear Stearns mess caused global turmoil on March 17, the FTSE-100 index has risen around 800 points &#8211; <a href="http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/stockmarket/3/three_month.stm" target="_blank">as  you can see on this chart.</a></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">And  eager to tap into that strength, one of America&#8217;s big boys just came knocking&#8230;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"><strong>The &#8220;Best Buy&#8221; For America&#8217;s Biggest Electronics Retailer</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">With  a 20% market share, <strong>Best Buy</strong> (NYSE:  BBY) is already winning the battle against the likes of <strong>Circuit City</strong> (NYSE: CC). But the world&#8217;s largest consumer electronics retailer just strengthened further by beefing up its international presence.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">The  firm announced on Thursday that it will spend $2.1 billion to acquire half of  British mobile telecommunications company <strong>Carphone  Warehouse</strong> (CPW.L). Having already worked with Carphone Warehouse for two years and bought a 2.9% stake in the firm last year, this deal will now see Best Buy add to Carphone&#8217;s existing 2,400 stores and take its large, superstore-style US shops to the UK and Europe under the Best Buy brand name in 2009.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">For Best Buy, it&#8217;s a lucrative opportunity to tap into Europe&#8217;s annual $175 billion consumer electronics market. And rather than trying to crack the European retail market by itself &#8211; a move that has proved tricky for other US retailers &#8211; it&#8217;s teaming up with an already dominant, well-established company (Carphone was founded in 1989) that has the experience, expertise, and strong brand. In addition, Best Buy will take its successful Geek Squad in-home technical support team to Britain.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Moreover, with the high profit margins in the mobile phone market, the partnership will add $5 billion to Best Buy&#8217;s fiscal 2009 revenues and 5-9 cents in earnings per share.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">That&#8217;s on top of the 11.4% sales jump to $40 billion in Best Buy&#8217;s last fiscal year, which produced earnings of $1.4 billion, up 2.2%. The firm also offers a $0.52 annual dividend per share (1.2% yield) to shareholders.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">So  what about the other side of the merger? And how are investors reacting to the  deal?</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"><strong>Investors Are Non-Plussed Now&#8230; But This Deal Should Pay Off Later</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Judging  by the share price action of both <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BBY&amp;t=5d&amp;l=on&amp;z=l&amp;q=l&amp;c=" target="_blank">Best  Buy</a> and <a href="http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CPW.L&amp;t=5d&amp;l=on&amp;z=l&amp;q=l&amp;c=" target="_blank">Carphone  Warehouse,</a> you&#8217;d think it&#8217;s a bad deal. Investors have bailed on the shares  over the past couple of days.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Obviously, there are risks &#8211; not least of which being the fact that consumer spending is currently slowing as inflation rises and demand for high-end electronics has cooled</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">But ultimately, I believe it&#8217;s actually a good move for both sides. In Carphone&#8217;s case, the firm gains access to Best Buy&#8217;s hugely successful, proven model, which should give it a healthy boost in the ultra-competitive UK telecommunications and electronics market.</font></p>
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