U.S. crude futures traded down $1.01 to $63.04 a barrel by 1:13 p.m. EDT (1713 GMT) as investors sought safer havens. London Brent crude fell 74 cents to $63.31 a barrel.

“The worries are that the pace of the economic recovery hasn’t materialized the way that people who plunged into the commodity markets thought, and now they are running for the exits,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The question is how far they will run.”

Safe-haven currencies such as the dollar gained on the concerns about a potential turnaround to the global economic crisis, while U.S. stocks fell.

Crude prices have dropped from $73 a barrel in late June on worries a rebound in global fuel demand may be far off, after economic optimism helped lift prices from lows under $33 struck in December.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its outlook for global oil demand by 170,000 barrels per day (bpd) in a report released on Tuesday.

“There has been stronger economic activity in Asia than was previously anticipated, and the current forecast reflects higher expected oil consumption in that region,” the EIA said.

Surging demand from China and other developing economies launched oil and other commodities on a six-year rally that sent crude to a record high near $150 a barrel last year, before the economic crisis hit demand.

Weekly U.S. inventory data is expected to show a fall in crude oil stockpiles and a build in gasoline and distillate stocks in the week to July 3, the build up to the long U.S. Independence Day holiday weekend when summer gasoline demand typically peaks.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to be released later Tuesday, with the EIA’s weekly inventory report due out on Wednesday.

Crude has found limited support from OPEC member Nigeria, where militants have launched at least four attacks against oil installations in the past 10 days, helping to underpin prices on Tuesday.

NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters)

U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 3.9 million barrels in the week to June 19, well above analysts’ forecasts, as refiners cranked up output in the midst of the summer driving season.

Distillate stocks hit 10-year highs, while crude stocks showed a steep drop.

U.S. crude traded down 55 cents to $68.69 per barrel at 2:00 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), reversing earlier gains. London Brent crude fell 49 cents to $68.31 a barrel.

“Crude futures are back down on the weight of a stronger dollar,” said Mark Waggoner, Excel Futures President from Huntington Beach, California. “The EIA inventory report also showed large increases in gasoline and distillate stocks and that’s dragging down crude.”

The U.S. dollar rose broadly and jumped against the Swiss franc as traders reported the Swiss National Bank was intervening in the market by selling the currency for dollars and euros. The rising dollar can pressure commodities denominated in the greenback.

Optimism over a potential economic recovery boosting flagging fuel demand has lifted oil prices from below $40 a barrel.

However, crude imports by No. 3 consumer Japan fell by 18.8 percent in May against last year, according to government data. EIA data showed total U.S. demand down 6.6 percent in the four weeks to June 19, compared with year-ago levels.

GEOPOLITICAL CONCERNS

Multiple militant attacks on pipelines and oil installations in OPEC member Nigeria recently have forced production stoppages at sites run by Agip , Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell , stoking supply concerns.

A senior official said Nigeria’s president will propose a 60-day amnesty program for militants in the Niger Delta on Thursday, in an effort to end years of attacks on Africa’s biggest oil and gas industry.

Traders were also keeping an eye on the worst civil unrest in 30 years in Iran, the world’s fifth-largest oil exporter, over a disputed presidential election.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared on Wednesday that a disputed election result would stand.

NEW YORK, June 24 (Reuters)

Oil prices dropped more than $1 on Friday as the deteriorating global economic outlook stoked concerns that crude demand will continue to shrink.

U.S. crude futures for March delivery, which expire on Friday, fell $1.13 to $38.35 a barrel by 1228 EDT (1728 GMT), after posting the biggest settlement gain since Dec. 31 in the previous session.

Brent crude fell $1.09 to $40.90 a barrel.

The losses tracked weakness in U.S. stocks, which fell sharply led by banking shares on fears that a U.S. bank rescue plan might lead to nationalization.

Economic news was grim outside the United States as well, with European shares hitting a six-year low as investors fretted about capital increases and bank nationalization on the back of a deepening economic downturn.

The broad Topix index of Japanese shares closed at its lowest level in about 25 years.

A rally in gold, a traditional safe haven for investors, to over $1,000 an ounce, its highest since March of last year, also added pressure to oil prices by drawing investors away from riskier markets, dealers said.

Oil prices had rallied strongly on Thursday, jumping 14 percent after data showing an unexpected draw in U.S. crude stocks. But worries over the health of oil demand have resurfaced, with sentiment dented by sharp falls in equity markets.

“There were some signs (in inventory data released Thursday) that oil may be stabilizing, at least demand. But this morning crude oil is lower and the market is still looking at the weakness of the economy.” said Peter Beutel, president at Cameron Hanover in New Canaan Connecticut.

Crude inventories in the United States, the world’s top consumer, fell slightly last week on lower imports and higher demand, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said, snapping seven straight weeks of builds against market expectations.

Crude prices have fallen more than $100 a barrel from the peaks hit last July as the worsening economic crisis has bitten into oil demand, prompting the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to agree to deep output cuts.

In the latest indication that OPEC members are complying with the agreed cuts, Kuwait notified at least two buyers in Asia that it will keep curbs of 5 percent below contracted volumes for April-June term crude oil supplies, steady from March, trade sources said.

Source: NEW YORK, Feb 20 (Reuters)

Oil fell a dollar to below $43 a barrel on Thursday on weak economic data from the United States and China, the world’s two largest oil consumers.

The focus will shift later in the session to weekly U.S. fuel stocks data, which is expected to show crude inventories rose for a fourth consecutive week, and higher gasoline inventories.

U.S. crude fell $1.10 to $42.45 at 1510 GMT. Earlier in the session prices rose as high as $45.10. London Brent was down 3 cents at $44.99.

Prices came under pressure from another round of gloomy economic data.

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose by more than expected last week, while housing starts and permits fell to a record low in December, data showed.

China’s economy slowed sharply in the fourth quarter and Japan’s central bank on Thursday predicted two years of deflation as Asia’s largest economies buckle under the strain of the financial crisis.

U.S. crude oil stocks are expected to have risen by 1.4 million barrels and gasoline by 1.9 million barrels in weekly data due at 1600 GMT on Thursday.

Traders were looking for news of the oil storage levels at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for NYMEX crude, which have been a drag on the nearby contract for U.S. crude futures.

European equities also pared early gains to turn negative, pressuring crude prices, traders said. Microsoft earnings missed expectations, contributing to a weaker opening for U.S. stocks.

Investors have been watching moves in equity markets to try and gauge the resilience of the broader economy, as the global economic slowdown has curbed demand for fuel around the world.

LONDON, Jan 22 (Reuters)

Oil jumped more than 3 percent on Tuesday as winter weather blasted the United States amid signs OPEC has tightened supplies.

Further support came as the U.S. February crude contract headed for expiry at the end of the trading session.

U.S. February crude rose $1.25 to $37.76 a barrel by 12:52 EST (1752 GMT), while March crude fell 76 cents to $41.81 a barrel. London Brent gained 34 cents to trade at $44.84 a barrel.

“There’s a short-squeeze play going on ahead of February crude’s expiration, as there are still some traders heavy with shorts on this last trading day for the contract,” said Phil Flynn, analyst, Alaron Trading, Chicago.

“The market is also filling the gap between the February and March contract, one activity which we saw in the last two contract expirations and so we are seeing a narrowing of the Feb/March contract.”

Slumping demand in the United States and Europe has helped send crude prices down from record highs over $147 a barrel struck in July, prompting producer group OPEC to agree to a series of output cuts aimed at balancing the market and supporting prices.

Kuwait has informed all customers of cuts in oil supply in line with OPEC’s December decision to reduce supply, state oil company Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said.

New OPEC President, Botelho de Vasconcelos, told Reuters the group was fully enforcing its deepest ever oil supply curbs, adding OPEC was unlikely to meet before its next scheduled meeting in Vienna in March.

“The OPEC cuts are stabilizing the markets, even if they are not making it go up very much,” said Christopher Bellew, broker at Bache Commodities in London.

Further support came as cold weather hit the U.S. Northeast, the world’s largest heating oil market.

China, one engine in the six year commodity price rally that started 2002, was expected to release fourth-quarter GDP data this week that economists say will show a 7.0 percent growth, the slowest pace of expansion in nearly a decade for the world’s third-biggest economy.

Russian gas reached Europe via Ukraine for the first time in two weeks after Moscow and Kiev ended a contract row that cut supplies to about 20 European countries.

NEW YORK, Jan 20 (Reuters)

• Sources close to the matter told Bloomberg News that President-elect Barack Obama may name Steven Rattner as “car czar,” a top-level position that would oversee the conditions of which bailout money is given to U.S. auto companies, Bloomberg reported. Rattner co-founded private-equity firm Quadrangle Group LLC in 2000.

• Barclays plc is planning to cut more than 2,100 jobs from its investment banking and investment management units, sources told Reuters. About 1,300 jobs would be lost from Barclays Capital. About 500 from Barclays Wealth. And about 370 from Barclays Global Investors.

• Great Britain energy titan, BG Group plc, plans to invest between $4 billion and $5 billion to develop oil fields in Brazil through 2012. “We’re confident that these developments can be made economic at lower oil prices, but we’ll need to ensure the efficiency of the investment. Oil prices we see today are much more realistic,” Chief Executive Officer Frank Chapman told Bloomberg.

• Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer Inc. (PFE) said it plans to slash 800 research jobs, a reduction of 5% to 8% of its research workforce. Most of the cuts will come from labs in California, Connecticut and England, and are in addition to the near 10,000 jobs cut companywide since early 2007, Reuters reported.

• Crude futures halted a weeklong price slide yesterday (Tuesday), as light, sweet crude for February delivery rose 19 cents to settle at $37.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures briefly touched $36.10 a barrel, a new low for the year, earlier in the day.

• Commercial banks borrowed more while investment banks borrowed less from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s emergency lending program over the most recent week. The Fed report said commercial banks averaged daily borrowing of $87.9 billion during the week that ended last Wednesday. That was an increase from the $86.6 billion in average daily borrowing for the week that ended Dec. 31. Investment firms borrowed nearly $36 billion over the past week, USA Today reported. That was down from the average of $38.5 billion for the week that ended Dec. 31, the newspaper reported.

• U.S. companies may have to contribute $109 billion to their corporate pension plans this year to fill funding gaps caused by turmoil in the financial markets, consulting firm Watson Wyatt Worldwide Inc. (WW) said yesterday (Tuesday). Watson Wyatt expects companies also will have to contribute more than $102 billion in 2010. Both of these figures are up significantly from the $38 billion that companies were required to contribute to the plans last year.

Source: Global Investment News Roundup Wednesday, January 14th, 2009

A spate of interest rate decisions, including that of the European Central Bank on Thursday, are set to influence the currency markets, and key U.S. non-farm payrolls numbers will be released on Friday.

Spot gold slipped to $773.05/775.05 an ounce at 1000 GMT from $781.50 an ounce in New York late on Tuesday.

“This is a big week for news, and a lot of people will be on the sidelines ahead of that,” Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS Finance, said. “This is going to be a very illiquid market.”

Gold is often bought as an alternative investment to the dollar and typically moves in the opposite direction to the U.S. currency. The dollar strengthened against the euro on Wednesday as traders bet on a euro zone rate cut.

The currency markets remain jittery ahead of rate announcements from the ECB, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Thursday.

Gold shrugged off a move higher in oil prices, with inflation fears tempered by crude’s sharp dip at the beginning of this week.

U.S. crude futures are currently up on the day, but are trading some 13 percent below the level they hit early on Monday. Traders are awaiting U.S. stockpiles data due later in the session.

Physical offtake of gold is also slowing, traders said. In India, the world’s largest bullion market, domestic gold buying declined as well-stocked traders awaited further price falls.

“We have many buy orders at $750 (an ounce) levels,” a dealer at a Mumbai bank said.

Among other precious metals, spot silver tracked gold lower to $9.38/9.46 an ounce from $9.54.

CAR SALES TUMBLE

Platinum prices rose, recovering some of this week’s up to 10 percent losses. The metal slipped sharply on fears over falling sales by automakers, the main consumers of platinum used to make autocatalysts.

Data released on Tuesday showed U.S. car sales tumbled nearly 37 percent in November, the 13th consecutive month of falls, to their lowest level since 1982.

Sales at GM and Chrysler fell 41 percent and 47 percent respectively in November. Carmakers said there was no sign demand would rebound in the next six months.

However, with platinum having already fallen two-thirds from the highs it hit in March and much of the bad news already priced in, the market showed little reaction to the news.

“The platinum group metals market has come to expect the worse, and much of this bearish news has been priced in already,” Standard Bank analyst Walter de Wet said.

A top lawmaker predicted Washington will approve a bailout plan for U.S. automakers after they submitted survival plans to Congress, and both GM and Chrysler said they needed an immediate cash injection to avoid failure.

Spot platinum rose to $803.50/823.50 an ounce from $796 late on Friday, while its sister metal palladium was little changed at $171/176 an ounce against $169.

A Reuters survey showed platinum, palladium and silver are expected to record sharp price falls in 2009 as demand sags in line with economic growth.

By Jan Harvey
LONDON, Dec 3 (Reuters)

• October sales dropped for big-name retailers Macy’s Inc. (M), Target Corp. (TGT) and Gap Inc. (GPS) a result of continuing job losses and widespread credit drought that took the spirit out of consumer spending. Same-store sales climbed 2.4% at Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), as tight-budget shoppers searched for cheaper prices, Bloomberg reported.

• A day after forecasting a 5% to 10% annual revenue drop, Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) said it will invest $100 million sales to small businesses, Reuters reported. Despite a weaker global economy, Cisco said it sees a window to expand sales of routers, switches and other equipment.

• Blackstone Group LP (BX) posted its biggest quarterly loss, shedding $502.5 million in the third quarter, or 44 cents a share, Bloomberg reported. Blackstone is the world’s largest private-equity firm who went public 18 months ago, right before the credit crisis depleted the value of its holdings and made acquiring financing more difficult.

• The International Energy Agency said that import prices for crude oil will “likely” average $100 a barrel from 2008 to 2015, MarketWatch reported. The opposite happened Thursday, as December crude futures fell $3.51 to $61.77 a barrel. The official IEA 2008 Energy Outlook will be released on Nov. 12.

• Mattel Inc. (MAT) said yesterday (Thursday) it is cutting about 1,000 jobs worldwide. The maker of Barbie and Fisher Price products said the positions equate to 3% of its global work force and will reduce its professional and management staff by 8%. Mattel last month reported fiscal third-quarter profit rose less than 1% to $238.1 million.

• DirecTV Group Inc. (DTV), the nation’s largest satellite TV operator, yesterday (Thursday) announced third-quarter earnings rose 14%. The company reported net income of $363 million, or 33 cents per share, up from $319 million, or 27 cents per share, a year ago. Revenue rose 15% to $4.98 billion. Revenue in Latin America jumped 49% to $658 million.

• Fidelity Investments said yesterday (Thursday) it is cutting nearly 1,300 jobs this month, with more layoffs coming early next year. The layoff notices, set to go out later this month, amount to about 2.9% of Fidelity’s total work force of 44,400. A second round of cuts is planned for the first three months of 2009.

• The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell by 4,000 last week to 481,000, the Labor Department reported yesterday (Thursday). The department revised up its estimate for jobless claims the week prior to 485,000. The four-week moving average of claims, a less volatile measure, was unchanged at 477,000 last week.

Source: Global Investing Roundups Friday, November 7th, 2008

Trichet’s comments were seen as the driving factor.

“Profit taking and/or selling in the crude market over the past week came to sudden halt and buyers stepped back to the plate based on these inflationary comments out of Europe,” wrote Thomas Hartmann, an analyst at Altavest Worldwide Trading.

But there was a technical aspect, too. “The price advance in crude futures accelerated after breaking yesterday’s highs, likely setting off a round of frenzied buying in the last hour of trading,” Hartmann added.

And James Williams, of WTRG Economics, sees “a market divorced from fundamental supply and demand … The decline in the dollar on the possibility of higher European interest rates only explains about 1/4th of [yesterday’s] move,” Williams wrote.

Source: Crude Takes Back Lost Ground – Buying Frenzy Develops Late in Day

Even our fish is wondering. He darted back and forth acrosss the tank this morning as we both watched the overnight report from New York on TV. Who knew fish could be stressed by rising commodity prices?

Our old friend Kevin Kerr back in the States reckons that the combination of peak North American driving season (the Memorial Day holiday this weekend) and a touch of financial speculation will pressure prices higher. There is no relife in sight, either.

Is it demand? Is it speculation? Is it OPEC punishing George Bush for the war in Iraq? OPEC, as we explain in our two-part essay beginning tomorrow, thinks there’s plenty of oil. It’s the declining U.S. dollar that’s to blame. OPEC says that for every one percent decline in the dollar oil rises by US$4, and vice versa.

The solution to high oil prices, then, is not increased supply or reduced demand, but a stronger U.S. dollar! Well, there is certainly some truth to that, but it is not likely to happen any time soon. As a tangible good whose supply cannot be increased by a central banker, the oil price (a little like the gold price) tells you there’s too much paper money chasing too little stuff.

The U.S. dollar, by the way, is not cooperating to bring oil prices lower. After its recent, much-ballyhooed rally, the dollar is giving back some of its gains. It fell yesterday against the euro, the yen, and the pound (the four other ugly contestants in this global currency beauty pageant…where the winner is the least ugly.)

The Aussie dollar played a role in the demise of the U.S. currency yesterday. Australia’s dollar is again at a 24-year high against the greenback. The kicker yesterday came from the release of the notes from the Reserve Bank’s most recent meeting.

The Bank didn’t raise the cash rate then from 7.25%. But the notes reveal it came awfully close. That information was enough to persuade some currency traders to sell America’s currency and buy Australia’s.

After reviewing the conditions in the global financial market (not so good) and the conditions in Australia’s domestic market (much better), members of the Board scratched their collective heads and decided not to raise the cash rate. There was a lot of talking, and wringing of hands, and gnashing of teeth, though.

“The question therefore remained,” after much private discussion, “whether the setting of monetary policy was sufficiently restrictive to secure low inflation over time. Members spent considerable time discussing the case for a further rise in the cash rate. But on balance, given the substantial tightening in financial conditions since mid 2007, and the extent of uncertainty surrounding the outlook, the Board decided that it was appropriate to allow the current setting of monetary policy more time to work.”

A near miss.

The Bank also said something interesting about the terms of trade (which is admittedly a challenge). Housing and business finance have both slowed down. This helps “moderate domestic demand,” to use a central banking phrase. Fewer Aussies borrowing (money and credit creation from thin air) also, hopefully, lowers inflation below the 4% rate its officially running at.

But the strong Aussie dollar is creating a monster in the terms of trade. The notes report that, “Members were briefed on the large increases in bulk commodity contract prices that had been agreed over the past month. In US dollar terms, there were price rises of 80 per cent for iron ore, over 200 per cent for coking coal and 125 per cent for thermal coal.”

Old news. But it’s still astonishing when you look at it, isn’t it? No wonder coal and iron ore stocks are flying.

“Other commodity prices were also high at present,” the notes continued. “The price of Tapis crude oil had risen steadily so far this year, and base metals prices were not far below the peak reached in mid 2007 after having roughly doubled over the previous three years.”

Here is the real surprise; “The rises in bulk commodity contract prices were significantly higher than previously forecast and would lead to an estimated rise in the terms of trade of 20 per cent this year. The increase in the terms of trade was expected to boost national income by about 3–4 per cent, which would be a significant potential stimulus to spending, notwithstanding possible constraints inhibiting a further rise in business and public-sector investment spending.

You can raise the cost of borrowing. But if what you sell to the rest of the world keeps going up in price, and you’re selling more of it, you’re going to have wads of cash in your pocket. That’s itchy.

And here is a statement that puts the entire boom in global perspective, “Members were informed that, measured by the change in the terms of trade over the past five years, Australia had received a larger income gain than any other comparable country, even before taking this year’s projected increase into account.”

Is there another country in the world that’s gained more from the commodity boom than Australia? No, according to the RBA. And that’s before that recent triumvirate of nearly triple digit gains in bulk commodities is figured in.

What does all this mean for shares? Well, the oil price is having two effects, with a third off in the distance. The first is obvious, energy stocks are zooming. Second, the high oil price is making many other unconventional and alternative energy projects sensible as alternatives. THOSE stocks are picking up too.

Eventually, you have to believe that what’s good for the energy sector is bad for the rest of economy—energy being a cost for the rest of us and not a source of income. But we haven’t reached the point yet where high petrol or gas prices are reducing business production or household consumption.

For bulk commodities and minerals, we reckon the land grab will rush on, moving from resource to resource and project to project. Our latest investigative project in the small cap letter…well we won’t give it away. It comes out later this week.

Gold has not been idle either. You’ll notice it appears to have completed its consolidation after the first charge to US$1,000. After regrouping, shaking out the weak hands, and giving the dollar its due, gold is on the march again.

Our friend Kevin was on CBS Marketwatch this morning telling the host that gold could reach US$1,300 or US$1,500 in “just a few months.” His original forecast was for a move to US$1,500 in twelve months. But the speculative money is moving fast, Kevin says, and that could drive the move more quickly than he expected.