The obvious answer is that they’re four of the most successful technology companies on the planet.

But they’re also heavily involved in the modernization plans for America’s “Smart Grid” – a topic I introduced in a previous column.

Make no mistake, with a decade-long project as monumental as modernizing the country’s “Smart Grid,” the devil is truly in the details. And the Commerce Department released the finer details of the initiative last week.

Until now, one of the big problems with the “Smart Grid” was the lack of set standards. Without them, each power company would be free to do as it pleases, resulting in a hodge-podge of small grids that, in all likelihood, wouldn’t work together.

To put this in perspective, just imagine how well the Internet would work if there weren’t hundreds (or perhaps even thousands) of standards in place so that everything works seamlessly.

So the National Institute of Standards (NIST) prepared the detailed standards that the Commerce Department wants the power industry to use as they build intelligence into the electrical power grid.

Job #1: Setting Up an American “Smart Grid” Standard

The standards released last week are the result of NIST’s review of proposed measures it sent out to companies like Cisco, IBM, AT&T and Intel, plus hundreds of others, seeking industry comments.

This plan basically details the integration and connection of smart meters, plus data sharing on energy usage among utilities and cyber security standards.

With regard to the latter, the big four firms lobbied vigorously for certain data and communications standards. This is because they want to integrate the essential “hooks” into their product lines as soon as possible.

And the NIST standards require internet-protocol (IP) technology in any system connected to the “Smart Grid.” The idea here is that the existing Internet could be used as the information highway for “Smart Grid” data communications and also for control purposes.

That’s good news for Cisco, in particular. It’s already a leader in IP technology, having integrated it into the “Smart Grid” systems that it currently sells.

But this brings up a potentially big problem…

Smart Meters By Name… But Not By Nature

If “Smart Grid” communication is based on IP technology, how vulnerable is it to hacking?

In order to attack the hardware, you first need to gain access to it to determine the kind of programming required to hack it. Smart hackers could simply walk up to a house where no one is home and steal one using a pair of pliers.

Once the hacker has access to the smart meter’s programming and special software codes, he can then begin communicating with all the meters made by that same manufacturer. As utilities continue their rollout of smart meters, those numbers will be in the millions.

As Mike Davis, a senior security consultant at IOActive, says, current smart meters are “probably not mature enough” and can easily be hacked.

Davis has tested a number of currently available meters (he hasn’t publicly revealed which ones) and identified vulnerabilities that could allow an experienced hacker to shut off large numbers of meters all at once from anywhere in the world.

Imagine a hacker issuing a command to several hundred thousand meters, telling them to simultaneously turn off all at once… and then immediately back on. The resulting surge would blow just about every breaker in the utilities’ grid, taking hours if not days to restore. And the next day, they could do it all over again.

Clearly, this is a serious problem for the utilities and meter makers to address. So what’s being done about it?

These Four Tech Titans Are Poised to Cash In

The good news is that with standards now in place, the Obama administration is ready to start issuing checks – perhaps as early as November. And those checks are worth a total $4.5 billion – money that the government earmarked for the “Smart Grid” project back in January.

And the beneficiaries of this windfall? Cisco, IBM, AT&T, Intel and others.

This just goes to show that it’s not just the obvious candidates that stand to profit from the electrical “Smart Grid” plans (utilities, etc). These great tech giants are ready and waiting to deliver crucial services, too.

Good investing,

David Fessler

Source: Four Companies Set to Profit from a Federal Cash Injection

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is up 58% from its March lows, gold has finally broken through the $1,000-an-ounce level – and may go higher – and bond yields have fallen substantially in spite of the huge U.S. budget deficit.

It’s really not difficult to tell when you’re in a bubble. What’s tough is trying to figure out how to invest while it’s developing.

When current Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke doubled the monetary base in a few weeks last fall, it was pretty obvious that the extra money would appear somewhere, either as zooming asset prices or as surging inflation. After all, the rapid increases in the U.S. money supply after 1995 produced a stock-market bubble and then a housing bubble.

And don’t forget about interest rates. When oil prices doubled in less than 12 months between 2007 and 2008, it was because Bernanke aggressively cut interest rates after the recession first hit in late 2007. So you’d have to believe that money supply was irrelevant not to expect markets to start behaving oddly at some point.

Silver and Gold …

That’s why – since late in 2007– I have been recommending investments in gold and other hard assets. While the recession had sharply reduced demand for oil, causing its price to drop from its record high of $147 a barrel in July 2008 to around $30 in February, the gold price had dropped only from its March 2008 peak of $1,000 to around $700, before rebounding. Gold prices remain far below the inflation-adjusted equivalent of their 1980 peak, which would be around $2,300 per ounce today.

Likewise, silver prices are even further below their 1980 peak, which would be around $130 per pounce, or nearly 10 times the current level. Since both gold and silver markets are relatively thin compared to the money available – annual gold production is only $100 billion at current prices – the potential for a run-up is considerable.

The difference between a bubble and a sound bull market is that a bubble happens more quickly. Normal valuation metrics get ignored. You couldn’t rationally justify – on any sort of long-term basis – the dot-com stock prices of 1999, the California house prices of 2005, or the $147-per-barrel record oil prices of 2008.

Similarly, today’s cost of extracting gold is nowhere near $1,000 an ounce. Mining costs have increased. But extraction costs are still only about $400 an ounce for top-tier miners.

Likewise, with inflation at 2% and U.S. budget deficits at more than $1 trillion per annum, there’s no justification for a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield below 3.5%.

Let’s look at stocks. And let’s say that the market of early 1995 – when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 4,000 – is a reasonable base for estimating a fair value for the U.S. stock market. If that were the case, then inflating the Dow in line with nominal gross domestic product to keep it at fair value would bring us to a current day estimate of 7,800.

[The Dow closed yesterday (Thursday) at 9,783.92. To reach this “fair-value” level, the Dow would have to drop 1,984 points, or 20% – enough of a decline to qualify as an official “bear market.”]

However 1995 wasn’t a bear market, and economic and earnings prospects that year were really good. Besides, the Internet was just starting its rise to prominence. Today, we’re in a deep recession, with huge budget deficits and high unemployment, yet the Dow is closing in on 10,000.

In other words, U.S. stocks are overvalued. Even after the bearish trauma of last year, we remain in a stock-market bubble.

Four “Bubble” Investing Strategies – Including the One That Works

Bubble investing is different from bull-market investing. There aren’t many “good” values, so you have to be very careful.

One bubble-market strategy is to just put everything in cash and hide under the bed. How boring! Plus, as your neighbors brag about their profits at cocktail parties, you’ll feel like an idiot until the bubble bursts. Remember, even after your neighbors’ profits have turned to losses and you look smart, you can never get those cocktail parties back!

That doesn’t mean you should abandon prudence, however. You should certainly keep much higher cash reserves than normal. Indeed, consider investing a chunk of that cash in one of the non-dollar-denominated WorldCurrency Access Deposit Accounts offered by EverBank.

At the same time, it’s a pity to completely miss out on the returns one can earn in a bubble environment. But you have to careful and smart.

A second bubble-investing strategy is to find something that isn’t overvalued, and buy only that. That strategy worked great for me back in 1999. I was working in Croatia, which was going through a deep economic crisis. NATO was bombing neighboring countries in the Kosovo War. That played merry hell with tourism, Croatia’s main foreign currency earner. Croatian shares – there were about six at the time – were each selling at less than five times earnings. So I invested in Croatia and made out nicely when the war ended and things returned to normal.

The problem with that approach is globalization. It was just possible in 1999 to find undervalued investments, if only by putting your money close to a war zone. It isn’t really possible now, at least not to any great extent. Three months ago, there were lots of shares even in the United States, which had been bombed out by the downturn and hadn’t recovered. There aren’t many left now; if a share is bombed out today there’s probably good reason for it.

A third potential strategy is to try to time the bursting of the bubble. For example, you could buy the ProShares UltraShort Trust (NYSE: TBT), inversely related to twice the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (OTC: LEHMQ) 20-year bond index. Then you’d wait for the bond market to crash, and TBT to soar.

But there are two problems:

• First, the ProShares UltraShort Trust has a fair-sized tracking error, because they have to rebalance the fund daily. Thus if you hold it too long, you won’t do as well as you should.
• Second, the bubble can take a long time to burst; meanwhile it goes on inflating and you get killed. In the long run, it was a good idea to short Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO) in 1999. In the short run, it wasn’t so clever.

The Winning Play

The normal investment approach, to buy only the most conservative companies in an overvalued but bubbly sector, also doesn’t work. Everybody else is looking for them, too. And that means they end up being overvalued. Besides, they will advance only modestly with the inflating bubble, so you won’t make enough to compensate for the risk of buying too high.

The best alternative, therefore, is to buy bubbly investments – but the junk, not the cream. Buy gold and silver mines that even at $900 an ounce have only been running at close to break-even, because they have expensive deposits.

Don’t buy political risk (i.e. mines in dodgy countries), because if the gold price goes up, the local dictator will seize your company’s winnings. But operating risk is okay. And high operating costs are fine. If your mine has operating costs of $800 an ounce, you’ll make out like a bandits if gold goes from $1,000 an ounce to $1,200. That way, you need only put a modest amount in the investment, and it will zoom up to several times what you paid, making as much profit as if you’d put your entire fortune in something conservative.

Make sure to put only a portion of your money in such a play. Keep the rest in cash.

When to sell? Well, start selling at the first signs that the Fed is beginning to take inflation seriously, meaning the central bank will be pushing up interest rates. You’ll know when this is because you’ll likely start hearing a lot about Fed “exit strategies.”

Don’t be greedy – better to sell too early than too late. Better to leave the theater at the first wisp of smoke, than to wait until the entire crowd is panicking and heading for the exits.

I hate bubbles. And I hate Bernanke and the other central bankers for causing them by their misguided monetary policies. But you can make money out of them. Just don’t get carried away.

Source: The Only Way to Profit from a Stock Market Bubble

Even though the Internet as we know it is only a couple of decades old, this is still a difficult scenario to comprehend. Entire businesses – literally thousands upon thousands of jobs – exist because of the web.

Now we’re entering an age of Web convergence. Every single element of our old media – radio, television and print – is migrating to the Internet at breakneck speeds.

Within the next five years, the depth of offerings on the Internet and the global population connected to them will grow exponentially. In fact, the worldwide Internet economy is now growing at such a rate it will be next to impossible for content providers to keep up…

Bandwidth is being eaten up left and right by more data-intensive offerings, such as streaming video. Young people are also gobbling up Internet media. Young adults today are getting more and more of their news, sports and video directly on their computers. A recent study claims that those born between 1981-1992 get 34% of their news from the Internet, compared with only 11% from print newspapers.

Then there are the masses in emerging economies like China. China became the world’s top Internet user last year, passing the United States. The number of Chinese hooking up to the Internet for the first time is staggering, growing 42% last year alone, to nearly 300 million users, according to the China Internet Network Information Center. Now the government is setting its online ambitions toward the countryside, vowing to hook up every village with broadband lines by 2010.

In all of Asia, only 17% of the population has Internet access, according to Internet World Stats. Compare that with 75% penetration here in North America. This shows that there is plenty of room for tremendous growth…

Partnering With the Biggest Names in Media…

We’ve written to you before on the topic of bandwidth scarcity. And Penny Stock Fortunes readers already had the opportunity to score quick double-digit gains playing this trend with Internet data handler Soapstone Networks Inc. (OTC:SOAP).

Now we’re looking to play a different side of the bandwidth scarcity coin. This time, content delivery and media integration are our targets…specifically, video delivery outsourcing. As we’ve told you before, it’s a highly competitive field, but that’s where the real money is…

That’s why we’re moving one content delivery company off the Penny Stock Fortunes watch list and marking it a strong buy. This company is a content delivery network (CDN) provider for some of the largest media companies in the world. Its customer list includes big media mainstays such as MSNBC, Disney (NYSE:DIS), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Fox. The company also boasts the biggest fish of them all. Its No. 1 customer is Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) – a company that is now locked into an all-out war against rival Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) for web supremacy.

And lucrative contracts with these heavy hitters has helped the company grow its revenue more than 500% over the past three years.

Its most recent quarter proved how recession-resistant this content-delivery provider really is. While it still isn’t cash flow positive yet, its Q2 net loss was cut by two-thirds. The company grew its top line 7%, while the rest of the economy is still contracting.

And for a growing company in the tech sector, this company’s balance sheet is incredibly clean. The company is sitting on more than $145 million in cash and zero long-term debt.

The stock’s recent acquisition of another leading firm has even allowed the company to expand its offerings to mobile devices.

This is a massive market. According to networking giant Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), mobile video and other bandwidth-heavy features will drive worldwide mobile traffic to more than 1 exabyte per month by 2012. An exabyte is equal to 1 billion gigabytes…that’s a heck of a lot of data.

We just revealed this latest pick and more to our Penny Stock Fortunes readers – if you want to take a look, just click here for more details…

Best,
Greg Guenthner

Source: Taking Advantage of the ‘New Media’ Boom

If history is our guide, then the rally we’ve seen in U.S. stocks in recent weeks is more than just a periodic run-up in share prices – it’s the initial stage of a prolonged bull market.

The 13-week rally the Dow Jones Industrial Average has experienced off its March lows is the most powerful surge that index has seen since the Great Depression. If we look to history, stocks should continue to rally over the next three months.

“I say this with the utmost confidence and my fingers tightly crossed: This is the start of a new bull run,” Hugh Johnson, chairman of Johnson Illington Advisors, told MarketWatch.com.

The 13-week stretch from March 9 through May 29, which saw the Dow soar 28.3%, has been bested only once – by the 40.8% run-up the Dow enjoyed in the 13 weeks that followed its hitting a bottom in May 1932. The Dow surged an additional 3.1% last week.

Going back to 1900 – in any given quarter (13 weeks) – there have been 18 cases in which the market surged 20% or more, Johnson said.

Looking at the trends, the odds are strong that the Dow will be higher three weeks from now, and that means the odds are strong that the index will be higher three months from now.

“Based on history, who knows where we’re going to be four weeks from now? But in 12 weeks, the odds are we’ll be 3.8% higher,” Johnson said.
That can’t be guaranteed, however, since there has been at least case where stocks had a huge quarter, only to plunge afterward: In May 1929, the Dow zoomed 26% in 13 weeks – only to plunge 38.9% in the 12 weeks that followed.

Market Matters

General Motors Corp. (OTC: GMGMQ) officially filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and another U.S. icon has been laid to rest (until the “new” GM emerges better than ever).  With another $30 billion in government aid in hand, GM quickly moved forward by financing the acquisition of supplier Delphi Corp. (OTC: DPHIQ) by a buyout firm that will help it emerge from its own bankruptcy; reaching an agreement to sell Saturn to Penske Automotive Group Inc. (NYSE: PAG); and entering into a deal to unload Hummer to China’s Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery Corp. (though regulatory “challenges” are sure to hold up that one).  Meanwhile, Chrysler LLC progressed with its own restructuring Fiat SpA (OTC ADR: FIATY), much to the chagrin of about 800 dealers; and Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) plans to increase production to take advantage of the misfortunes of its primary competitors.

Shifting to a more “stable” industry, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair seem to be targeting Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) for a management shake-up, a move that could give regulators greater control of the one-time financial behemoth.  Smith Barney brokers found their new homes as a significant joint venture between Citi and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: C) was completed.  Citi also attempted to save face from the prior American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) embarrassment by announcing plans to withhold millions in previously promised severance packages to former execs. On the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) front, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley, and American ExpressCo. (NYSE: AXP) each revealed plans for stock offerings as they race to become the first major bank to repay “bailout” moneys.  With GM now in bankruptcy and Citi struggling to overcome its own problems, theDow Jones Industrial Average is replacing them with Cisco SystemsInc. (Nasdaq: CSCO) and The Travelers Cos. Inc. (NYSE: TRV)effective June 8.

Energy prices resumed their higher trek, as crude spiked above $70 a barrel for the first time since last October, despite reports that showed demand at its lowest level in 10 years.  Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) analysts upwardly revised their projections for future global demand and warned of a “likely return to energy shortages” in 2010.  As gas prices have skyrocketed about 50 cents above last month’s levels, consumers are facing pressures at the pumps that threaten to hinder some of next year’s anticipated growth in the economy.

Economically Speaking

It looks like fixed-income traders are not the only ones concerned about the expanding debt position in this country.  U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned that the government “can’t borrow indefinitely” and politicos need to take crucial steps to reduce a budget deficit that is rapidly approaching $2 trillion.   Bernanke again confirmed his belief that the economy will move beyond recession by late 2009, though he also warned that the weak jobs market (among other conditions) will restrict future expansion.

Speaking of labor, the unemployment data highlighted the week’s releases and the jobless rate surged to 9.4%, a new 25-year high, as 345,000 nonfarm jobs were lost from the economy.  However, even bad news becomes good news these days as economists had predicted a far more substantial loss (525,000 jobs), and the May decline was the smallest since October 2008.  Still, more than six million folks have seen their jobs disappear since the recession began in December 2007 and May represents the seventeenth consecutive month of labor contraction.

In other news, the manufacturing sector appears to be on the verge of recovery (though ever-so-slightly) as the ISM index reported its best showing since September 2008.  On the housing front, construction spending jumped for the second straight month and pending home sales experienced its biggest increase in eight years.  Personal income surprisingly rose in April, a positive sign for future consumer activity.  Though retailers reported weaker-than-expected same-store sales for May, analysts were quick to point out that Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is no longer participating in these reports, a decision that should skew the numbers lower because the world’s largest retailer accounts for about 10% of total retail sales.  Luxury chains and department stores were among the worst performers last month, while The Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) benefited from a nice increase in activity at its Old Navy chain.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner ventured over to China during the week where he praised it leaders for past stimulus measures (a tad different tact than used by his predecessor).  Recently, China has complained about the ballooning U.S. debt and analysts remain worried about its continued participation in our Treasury auctions.  The domestic powers-that-be have long criticized China about unfair trade practices and currency issues.

While the respective leaders have reservations about each other’s policies, Geithner’s remarks may be seen as smoothing over relations as our combined efforts will be imperative to securing an effective and long-lasting global recovery.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: History Hints that Current Stock Market Rally May Be the Leading Edge of a New Bull Market

Identifying The Market’s Next Takeover Targets

The task of identifying the market’s next takeover targets can be daunting. Literally thousands of potential targets exist, which is probably why most investors liken it to a crapshoot and in turn, shun such a strategy altogether.

But that’s a monumental mistake!

They’re passing up easy double-digit profits. Historical takeover premiums (the amount paid over the current share price for a target company) average 22%, according to a study in The Journal of Finance.

And that’s just the averages.

It’s common for many deal premiums to reach into the high double digits and even triple digits.

Investing in Takeover Targets – 3 Steps to Improving Your Odds

By following three simple steps when investing in takeover targets, we can dramatically improve our odds of success…

• Go where there is consolidation. Consolidation trends are a powerful predictive tool because they tend to persist. Think about it. When your biggest competitor goes out and doubles in size overnight, there’s only one way to respond – find a suitable acquisition of your own to remain competitive. Thus, by focusing on those industries and sectors undergoing the most rapid consolidation, we can isolate high probability targets.
• Focus on companies with valuable (and undervalued) assets. Whether it’s a new drug, a mammoth oil discovery, key market share, distribution channels, or a few promising patents, the real reason a company is acquired is because it owns a particular asset of value to the acquirer. Only invest in companies with such “must have” assets. And to reduce risk even further, I suggest buying clearly undervalued companies – ones trading at or near cash levels on the balance sheet. (Yes, they do exist.)
• Insist on improving fundamentals. Understand that takeovers take time. In fact, acquiring companies might spend as much as nine months conducting due diligence. Yet, even then, there’s nothing stopping them from walking away from a deal (Microsoft -NASDAQ:MSFT- and Yahoo! -NASDAQ:YHOO- ring a bell?). I recommend buying an “insurance policy” to protect against such unprofitable break-ups. By that I mean, only buy companies with improving fundamentals – whether it’s strong earnings growth, new product launches, increasing market share, etc. That way, you stand to profit even if a takeover never materializes.

You’ll recall in my previous article about the imminent takeover boom, I singled out three sectors that fit the first criteria above – health care (specifically drug makers), energy and technology.

3 Takeover Targets to Add to Your Portfolio Today

For those unwilling to expend the effort to carry out the next two steps… or just eager to get going immediately, here are three takeover targets to consider adding to your portfolio today:

• Crucell NV (Nasdaq: CRXL): Merck (NYSE:MRK) and Schering Plough (NYSE:SGP). Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and Wyeth( NYSE:WYE). Roche and Genentech (NYSE:DNA). Now Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) and CV Therapeutics. Crucell is likely next. It’s the largest independent vaccine maker, with products for treating influenza, childhood diseases and hepatitis B. Crucell’s PER.C6 cell line is its most valuable asset. The company already licenses out the technology to over 60 companies. And there’s no doubt management is accepting offers. In January, it was in friendly talks with Wyeth, before Pfizer swooped in and bought Wyeth and ended the discussions. Best of all, multiple suitors exist (Novartis -NYSE:NVS-, Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE:SNY), Merck and eventually Pfizer) so a bidding war could unfold, which translates into greater profit potential for us.

• Anadarko Petroleum, Corp. (NYSE: APC): As oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens famously observed, it’s often cheaper to drill for oil on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange than in the ground. Andarko proves it, as its reserves currently trade for less than $10 per barrel. Throw in a recent deep-sea discovery off Brazil, minimal political risk (80% of assets are located in North America) and high-quality, relatively untapped and undervalued natural gas assets and the takeover case here is an cinch. A multi-billion dollar stock repurchase program provides downside protection, too.

• Lawson Software (Nasdaq: LWSN): The company is a quickly growing niche vendor of enterprise resource planning (ERP) software for medium-sized businesses. Tech heavyweights like Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL), Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO)and Microsoft are in desperate need of new growth initiatives. They have little exposure to the middle-market. And they have the cash to afford to buy it. The $308 million in cash sitting on Lawson’s balance sheet reduces our risk and also represents a 32% instant rebate to any potential suitors.

Full disclosure: I have recommended all three of these companies to subscribers in recent months. And we’re sitting on gains of 8%, 25% and 59%, respectively, proving it pays to follow step 3 above.

So to echo Alex’s sentiments from Monday, if you haven’t added a handful of potential corporate takeover targets to your portfolio, what are you waiting for? The opportunities and potential profits will be historic.

Good investing,

Lou Basenese

Source:  Takeover Targets: 3 Steps to Finding Them & 3 Stocks for Any Portfolio

The problem I have with this dogmatic definition of a bear market rally is the following: Assuming (and this isn’t a forecast, since I really haven’t the foggiest idea where stock markets will be in six or 12 months’ time) the S&P 500 moved up to 1350 and then declined to 500, as an investor should you care if the move to 1350 — a 100% gain! — was a bear market rally?

My impression is that investors’ fixation on the recent rally being a bear market rally has actually kept most investors on the sidelines and hoarding cash. Now, put yourself in the shoes of a fund manager who, in the last 18 months, has lost 50% of his clients’ money and missed the recent rally (34% for the S&P 500). What is he likely to do? I would think that he would be inclined to purchase equities as they correct the sharp advance since early March, especially as the economic news in the near term becomes less negative.

Based on our conversations with numerous managers in recent weeks, we believe that most quantitative managers’ portfolios were not positioned in expectation of a rally. Of the nearly 80 managers we have talked to, only one manager said they were up since March 9th and the clear majority admitted to being notably down or stopped out on their positions. These managers were both long-only and long-short quant managers using market neutral and non-market neutral strategies, sector neutral and non-sector neutral strategies, longer term and intermediate-term holding periods. It is fair to say that just about everyone is bewildered and trying to understand when this rally will end.

Another factor to consider is that there has been a significant improvement in the technical position of world stock markets. In the US the largest number of new 12-month lows was reached in October. At the November 21 low at 741 for the S&P 500, the number of new lows had already contracted, and even more so at the index’s March 6 low at 666. Also, market breadth and the number of stocks moving above their 200-day moving averages have taken a decisive turn for the better, indicating that the stock market advance is broadening and that the number of stocks that have bottomed out (at least in the intermediate turn) is expanding.

I have explained repeatedly in the past that if a government is really determined to try and postpone an inevitable collapse by “printing money” in order to lift or support asset prices, it can be done. However, the result of such a monetary policy is to lower the purchasing power of its paper currency, with catastrophic long-term consequences for its economic and financial volatility.

It forces individuals and institutions with cash to buy something…anything. So, this cash is channeled into gold and/or different paper currencies, commodities, equities, bonds, real estate, and consumer goods and services, but obviously with different intensities and at different times. For instance, at some times, such as in 2008, more money will be allocated to gold; while at other times, such as since early March, more money will flow into equities and industrial commodities. It is well understood that these money flows are driven largely by speculative activity (and more than a little dose of manipulation). The result in all asset markets is very high volatility and price fluctuations that don’t appear to make any sense to most market participants and observers who don’t understand the new rules of the investment game that were brought about by “money printing”.

This is where we are today, irrespective of whether or not you and I like policies of “quantitative easing, massive bailouts, and frightening fiscal deficits” and their long-term consequences! Another positive factor for stock markets is that a large number of Asian stock markets and individual stocks in the region had already bottomed out in October and November of 2008 and didn’t confirm the new low in the S&P in early March.

In Asia, the Taiwan and Shanghai indexes, and Korea’s Kospi Index, are all up by more than 50% from their late October 2008 lows. (The Shenzhen Index is up 90%.) But it is not only the Asian equity markets that have outperformed the US and Western European markets over the last few months; since late January 2009, the RTS Russian Index is up 66% and the MSCI Emerging Market ETF is up by 55% from its early November 2008 low.

This is not to say that the global economy is about to embark on a strong and sustainable growth phase. It also doesn’t mean that a new bull market in global equities à la 1982– 2000 has begun. But I think that, at least in nominal terms (inflation-adjusted), the global printing presses being run by the world’s central banks and fiscal deficits have begun to impact asset prices positively. Therefore, in the case of resource and mining stocks, as well as Asian equities (and, for that matter, most emerging and other stock markets around the globe), the lows thatwere reached between October and March of this year are likely to hold — that is, for now.

The markets that have the highest probability of having made major longer-term lows are resource-related equities, emerging markets, and Japan. Conversely, the asset market that has the highest probability of having made a secular high (such as Japan in 1989, or the Nasdaq in March 2000) is the US long-term government bond market.

Despite a still-weakening economy and massive quantitative easing, long-term bond yields appear to be on the verge of breaking out on the upside. I have listed again below all the equity recommendations I have made since December 2008. Some of these equities have already moved up substantially (resource and mining companies, in particular) and, therefore, I would only buy most of these recommendations on a correction.

In addition, a number of BRIC and other (mostly emerging market) closed-end country funds and ETS were recommended, such as Brazil ETF (EWZ), the Templeton Russia Fund (TRF), the Greater China Fund (GCH), the Asia Pacific Fund (APB), Taiwan iShares (EWT), the Japanese ETF (EWJ), the Japan Smaller Capitalization Fund (JOF), the Morgan Stanley India Fund (IIF), the Turkish Fund (TKF), and the MSCI Emerging Market ETF (EEM).

In the US, late last year we recommended buying the iShares iBox Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) and Nicholas Applegate Convertible & Income Fund (NCV), while earlier this year we recommended the accumulation of stocks of high-tech companies such as Cisco (CSCO), Intel (INTL), Oracle (ORCL), and Yahoo (YHOO). More recently, we recommended beaten-down insurance companies and financials as rebound candidates, including Leucadia National (LUK) and CNA Financial (CNA), Citigroup (C), the BKX, the Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS), and the Financials Select Sector SPDR.

The market’s advance had been broadening and that more and more groups such as airlines (AMR), homebuilders (TOL, CTX, HOV), and cyclicals such as Dow Chemical (DOW), International Paper (IP), and Alcoa (AA) are showing signs of having bottomed out. Among commodities, I am particularly intrigued by natural gas. There are natural gas ETFs (UNG, GAZ), but costs are high. A better way is probably just to buy future contracts, or Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) or the First Trust ISE Revere Natural Gas Index Fund (FCG).

Source: What to Buy…or Not Buy

Needless to say, when the number of jobs lost every month is in excess of 600k, we aren’t going to see an abrupt stop. We will unfortunately set the record for consecutive months of job losses in the next few months.

Monday

Economic Reports: Pending Home Sales

The Pending Home Sales report for March comes out this morning at 10:00 am, and I am a little surprised by the expectations (flat). With all the foreclosures continuing, and prices still sliding, I think this report will show a modest increase in Pending Home Sales.

Earnings Announcements: S

Tuesday

Economic Reports: ISM Services

This could be another month of contraction in the services sector if expectations are accurate. One thing to note when the report is released is if any sectors are expanding versus contracting. Last month the only sector to display expansion was in real estate rental and leasing. In any event, until more sectors are expanding than contracting the economy will continue to languish.

Earnings Announcements: KFT, UBS

Wednesday

Earnings Announcements: CSCO

Thursday

Earnings Announcements: GM, VRSN

Friday

Economic Reports: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

Earnings Announcements: TM

Source:Employment Numbers Are About To Get Historically Bad

The 1933 rally came after a record-breaking decline. Real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 25% during the Great Depression and the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell by almost 90%.

What is less well known, however, is that valuations remained depressed for well over a decade after 1933. In 1949, when the Dow was selling at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of just 7 times, it was cheaper in terms of earnings, net asset value, and GDP than it had been at its 1932 nadir.

This time around, the S&P 500 index fell 58% from its 2007 peak to its March 9 bottom at the superstitiously significant 666. Of course, 58% is nowhere near as much as 90%. To recover from a 58% drop the stock market must rise by 138%, but it must rise by 1,000% to recover from a 90% drop.

So it is not surprising that in spite of inflation and enormous economic growth, the Dow did not reach its 1929 level until 1954.

The other difference between 2009 and 1933 is that the 2008 stock market peak was both higher and more prolonged than it was in 1929, which was a mere blip by comparison.

Radio Corporation of America – 1929’s equivalent of Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) or Google Inc. (GOOG) – never got above 28 times earnings in that market, and the Dow spent less than three years within 50% of its peak value of 381.17, only passing 200 in December 1927, and finally falling below that level in August 1930.

In this market, the Dow was above 7,000 – within 50% of its 14,164 peak – continually from May 1997 until February 2009. Because the 2000s market was more overvalued for longer for a longer period of time, it has further to fall, even without a “Great Depression” economically.

The current rally has been based on signs that the U.S. banking system is not about to expire – a development I wrote about in an article entitled “The Top 12 U.S. Banks: From Zombies to Hidden Gems” in late February.

Apart from the very largest banks, which gorged themselves on the most foolish and ill-designed products of the derivatives business, the banking system is suffering from a normal real estate downturn and is coping well with the high levels of loss that downturn has brought. With short-term interest rates well below long-term rates, banks’ ongoing lending business is currently exceptionally profitable.

The U.S. economy, as a whole, has stopped falling with ever-increasing velocity and may actually be beginning a lengthy “bottoming out” process. Had politicians avoided meddling with the monetary and fiscal systems of the globe, devoting trillions of dollars to bailouts and stimulus, the bottom we are approaching might well be somewhat deeper, but we could at least be sure that it was indeed the bottom, with recovery to follow.

In Asian countries such as Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, where stimulus has been modest, and in China where it has created only a modest budget deficit, the sharp recession caused by collapsing exports is already coming to an end. (China, however, has a major banking and real estate problem that could still cause trouble down the road.)

But in the United States, we can have no such assurance. Monetary policy, which was far too expansive in 1995-2008, reached expansiveness of extraordinary dimensions after last September’s crisis, with the monetary base doubling and broad money expanding at a rate of more than 15%. Fiscal policy has produced record peacetime deficits – deficits that are more than double the previous peacetime record. The Federal budget deficit in 2009 will be double the 2007 balance of payments deficit, which had previously been thought of as a critical and dangerous imbalance.

With imbalances of this size, there can be no assurance that a recessionary bottom will be followed by recovery, quite the opposite. Japan has now suffered near-recessionary conditions for almost two decades with a weak recovery in 2003-07. And that modest recovery is now being followed by a new recession as the Japanese government foolishly resorted to more wasteful public spending and debt.

Fiscal stimulus stimulates nothing in a country where public debt is already 160% of GDP; instead it increases uncertainty and crowds out risk-taking private capital.

The most likely scenario for the United States is a recession, or near-recession, that lasts for a decade with the economy unsuccessfully struggling against the twin problems of surging inflation and a budget deficit that crowds out private capital investment. Either real interest rates will be high to combat inflation or inflation will rage out of control.

In such an environment, the outlook for stocks is bleak. The high stock prices of 1996-2008 have gone, and they will not return. When the excessive monetary expansion began in the spring of 1995, the Dow was at 4,000. That is equivalent to a level of 7,800 today when you inflate it by the increase in nominal GDP since 1995.

However, 1995 was not a bear market low. It was far from it. The market had been rising for four years since its 1990 bottom and was almost 50% above its 1987 peak, just before the “Black Monday” crash.

Thus, even if the economy had the growth prospects of 1995, a level of 7,800 on the Dow would be a reasonable expectation, not for a bear market low but for an equilibrium value. If you then take into account the markedly worse expectations for the U.S. economy resulting from excessive fiscal and monetary stimulus, 7,800 is too high.

Take the 1949 P/E multiple of 7, and apply it to a recovering earnings level of say $60 on the Standard and Poor’s 500, and you get an S&P of 420 – equivalent to a Dow of around 4,000.

The market is no longer hugely overvalued with the Dow at 8,000, but any rally will be temporary, and we can expect an eventual low well below the 6,547 the Dow reached last month.

Source: Is This the Beginning of a Bull Market, or Just a Breather for the Bear?

The president was under pressure to say who would handle the issue before tomorrow, when General Motors Corp. (GM) and Chrysler LLC must give progress reports on plans to restructure as a condition of $17.4 billion in U.S. Treasury loans. The so-called car czar – an approach that had some support in the American auto industry – was viewed as a key move in the federal government’s push to revamp the U.S. auto industry. The task force puts an end to reports Obama would recruit a well-known figure from outside to serve in that role, an approach that had some support in the industry itself.

Ron Bloom, a United Steelworkers union adviser and former Lazard Ltd. (LAZ) vice president, will join the Obama administration team, Bloomberg said of the alleged appointment, which has yet to be made publicly.

“There needs to be a trail boss here,” said Andrew Gross, chairman and chief executive officer of Automotive Consulting Services LLC in Clackamas, Oregon, told Bloomberg in a telephone interview yesterday. “Typically when you have a committee set up it provides cover. Everyone’s responsible, but no one’s accountable.”

Geithner has “got his hands full” trying to rescue the banking industry, Gross said.

After Congress failed to approve a bailout for the automakers, former President George W. Bush on Dec. 19 authorized the loans, a move that effectively made the Treasury secretary the car czar, imbued with the responsibility for making sure the companies meet deadlines and authority to revoke the loans.

Under the new plan, Geithner will remain Obama’s official “designee” to oversee the restructuring, meaning he’ll have the authority to pull back the aid if the automakers fail to submit a return-to-profitability plan by the established March 31 deadline.

“It’s going to be something that’s going to require sacrifice not just from the auto workers, but also from creditors, from shareholders and the executives who run the company,” senior White House adviser David Axelrod told NBC TV’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday.

Representatives from Cabinet departments and White House offices will serve on the task force, too.

Market Matters

So what will $790 billion buy these days?  Hopefully, a few roads and bridges, about 3.5 million new jobs – and perhaps an economic recovery for the country, too. President Obama is expected to sign the legislation today (Tuesday), The Washington Post reported.

But as the stimulus package moves closer to Obama’s signature, the jury is still out on its future success. Perhaps the sign of a successful compromise exists when neither party is completely satisfied (or not at all satisfied) and points out flaws in the final package.

In this case, budget hawks and other conservatives claim that the bill is a giant spending package that will do little to revive the economy, or create any real jobs. Many bleeding hearts and other liberals were counting on a larger stimulus and believe the tax cuts and rebates will not help and, if anything, similar actions over the past few years have contributed to the current mess.

President Obama seemed pleased with the progress and praised the plan as an “endeavor of enormous scope and scale.”  Then again, his views on effective stimulus may have cost him another cabinet nominee as his willingness to cross partisan lines to find a Commerce Secretary failed over insurmountable economic and ideological differences with Sen. Judd Gregg.

News from the bailout front grew more pessimistic during the week as Treasury Secretary Geithner’s initial attempt to win over Congress, investors, economists, and the media proved no more successful than Hank Paulson’s before him.  The stock market had run up significantly in the days leading to his speech, as folks hoped to hear some specifics about how the next round of the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) (and other initialed programs like TALF) would work far better than the initial plan.  Instead, disappointed investors ran for cover when his remarks left many questions about the valuations of toxic assets and private/public partnerships unanswered.

As plenty of finger-pointing continued over the failed bailout initiative and its lack of direction, some signs of success from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Treasury Department’s moves have slowly emerged.  The once-frozen credit markets have started to thaw as corporations have borrowed almost $80 billion so far in 2009, issuing high quality bonds to take advantage of low interest rates: Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) alone sold $4 billion in debt securities to raise cash for potential merger-and-acquisition activities.

In other (optimistic) news, Intel Corp. (INTC) will be investing $7 billion in technology enhancements at its factories during these dire times.  McDonalds Corp. (MCD) showed that Big Macs are near necessities as same-store sales jumped by more than 7% last month.  Still, earnings season wound down with profits at Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies projected to plunge over 30% in the fourth quarter, the worst showing in about two decades.  In fact, it was the first-ever quarter of negative earnings, MarketWatch.com reported.

Oil plummeted below the $34-a-barrel level (at one point) as inventories climbed to an 82-week high amid lower demand for energy during the downturn.  Investors unloaded stocks following the Geithner remarks (remember the old market adage: “Buy on the rumor, sell on the News”), despite some better-than-expected economic releases.

Bonds experienced a “flight to quality,” and also rose on news that a comprehensive foreclosure-assistance plan is in the works.

Economically Speaking

First the bad news. In the latest Wall Street Journal poll of top economists, the vast majority revised (downward) their outlooks for the second half of 2009, and said that the prospects for a full-fledged recovery seem much less promising.

While most predict that we’ll see some economic growth during the last six months, the rate of such expansion is lower than earlier projections. In fact, several economists expect that economic contraction will continue to be a reality through the end of the year.

But that brings us to the good news: These economic surveys are rarely on target.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did his best Tony Robbins impersonation (the power of positive thinking), and highlighted the recent successes of certain policies.  Bernanke suggested that the commercial paper markets have benefited from the central bank’s decision to buy these short-term securities and more companies are meeting their liquidity needs.  He promoted the newfound stability among money-market funds as investors ceased the mass withdrawals that were occurring last year. Finally, he expressed relief that mortgage rates have declined dramatically and that borrowers have taken advantage of purchase and refinance opportunities (at least those borrowers with high-paying jobs and stellar credit).

While the trade deficit declined to its lowest level in almost six years, the pessimists claim that the improvement is more reflective of the recessionary times which have restricted domestic demand for the imports of oil and other foreign-made products and services.

Meanwhile, the imbalance with China climbed to an all-time high.  In retail news, sales in January surprisingly jumped by 1%, the first increase in seven months and the best showing in more than a year. While Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) took advantage of the consumers’ hearty appetites for groceries and other (discounted) necessities of life, buyers also hit the auto lots again to check out the “too-good-to-be-true” deals.  While the initial jobless claims actually fell slightly in the most recent week, the number of unemployed continuing to search for a job moved higher, an indication that the labor markets remain tight.

The foreclosure initiative will be of particular interest to many who believe the housing sector remains the key to any recovery. Investors also get the latest look at the inflation picture as both the producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) for January will be released.  While oil has continued to plunge, gas prices seemed to have stabilized as of late (unfortunately for consumers) and talks of deflation may have been put on the backburner, at least for now

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: Obama Administration Kicks the “Car Czar” to the Curb; Treasury’s Geithner to Take the Wheel

• Live Nation Inc. (LYV), the world’s largest concert promoter, said it is buying Ticketmaster Entertainment Inc. (TKTM), the world’s largest ticketing company, for $2.5 billion including debt, Reuters reported. The merger will create a music powerhouse, already unpopular with fans and likely to receive intense scrutiny from government antitrust investigators.

• China inflation continued slowing in January, rising 1%, the slowest pace in nearly seven years. “Inflation could have been close to zero or worse if not for the Chinese New Year, because vegetable prices and grain prices went up,” Wang Tao, China economist at UBS AG in Beijing, told Bloomberg.

• MillerCoors, the U.S.-targeting joint venture between Molson Coors Brewing Co. (TAP) and SABMiller plc (ADR:SBMRY), said fourth-quarter profit slid 40%. The fall is mainly due to the costs to integrate the brands and impairment charges to its Sparks brand, the Associated Press reported.

• Switzerland’s largest bank, UBS AG (UBS), said it plans to cut another 2,000 jobs, this time at its security unit. Chief Executive Officer Marcel Rohner said the bank will return to profit in 2009, aided by help from the Swiss government to split off toxic assets, Bloomberg reported.

• Prices of call options to buy gold have almost doubled since Jan 15, as financial turmoil boosts demand for the precious metal, Bloomberg reported. Options contracts that allow holders to buy 100 ounces of gold for $1,000 each by April  traded as high as $17.50 yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as compared with $7.70 on Jan. 15. In that same period, options contracts that allow traders to sell gold at $800 by April plunged 82 percent.
• Oil prices fell below $39 a barrel on Tuesday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration revised downward its 2009 global oil demand forecast by 400,000 barrels per day predicting demand will fall by 1.17 million bpd from 2008, Reuters reported. The agency said it revised its demand forecasts on concerns the U.S. stimulus plan unveiled by the Obama administration will not stem the recession.  U.S. crude fell 63 cents to $38.93 a barrel. London Brent traded down 1 cent to $46.01 a barrel.
• Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) is cutting 700 to 800 jobs at its home office in Arkansas, as the world’s largest retailer looks to realign its corporate structure and reduce costs, Reuters reported. The discount retailer, which has roughly 14,000 employees at its headquarters, is eliminating jobs in merchandising, real estate and marketing in its Wal-Mart U.S. division, while cutting merchandising positions at its Sam’s Club division.
• Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) the giant network equipment maker, launched a surprisingly large $4 billion debt sale on Monday, raising speculation that was poised to make an acquisition, Reuters reported.  The offering came on the same day Cisco said it would offer senior notes to help pay back $500 million of debt due this month. The company said it would also use the proceeds of the offering to bolster its domestic cash position of $3 billion to $4 billion.

Source: Global Investment News Briefs Wednesday, February 11th, 2009