A rise in existing home sales last month shows things are getting better in the U.S. housing market, but the still-dire unemployment situation and the looming possibility of a jobless recovery may halt the rally by the end of the year. That makes the extension of an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers imperative.

From the tidal wave of e-mails and comments I have received from numerous different sources I am under the impression that most investors view the recent rally in the world’s stock markets as a bear market rally. I suppose we would need to define a bear market rally as a rally that fails to make a new all-time high (for the S&P 500, above the 1576 reached in October 2007) and is also followed by a new low for this cycle (below 666 for the S&P 500 reached in early March 2009).

New home construction fell in November by the largest amount in a quarter-century, as builders slashed production while facing the worst economic conditions since the Great Depression.