As a guy that has spent way too much time in rough water, I absolutely detest the clichéd phrase “a perfect storm,” but when it is apt I cannot help but use it. So here goes. This week has been a perfect storm for Mexican investors.  It physically hurt to write that sentence.

As if a bloody and growing drug war was not enough, Mother Nature threw Mexico a deadly flu outbreak and a 6.0 earthquake earlier this week. It was enough to force investors to flee back across the border.

Hard hit were the country’s pig producers like Smithfield Foods (NYSE:SFD), its cement makers like Cemex (NYSE:CX) and of course, its airports like Pacific Airport Group (NYSE:PAC). All of these companies were down by (or real close to) double-digit percentages during the week.

Even Mexico’s telephone and television providers were hit by the news. Apparently the worst symptom of the swine flu is falling share prices.

Even the Mexico peso was smacked hard on Monday, dropping by more than 4%.

Back at the feeding trough

Fortunately today has been a healthy reprieve from the fallout. There has been little to no signs of a worsening flu pandemic. People are not dropping like teenage girls at a Beetle’s concert (or an Obama sighting). And share prices have found enough of a reason to continue their climb even after a solid week of gains from the equities market.

Wall Street appears to be undecided about next week’s action, however. About half of the crowd is calling for a fizzle, while the other half is calling for more gains based on signs the economy is improving at a faster-than-expected rate (the stimulus worked!).

The answer will come from Mexico. Watch the iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:EWW), which has the perfect ticker considering the current flu scare, over the next few trading days. It will be a strong indication of what Wall Street thinks of Mexico’s economic chances.

If the fund lags the market, I expect the equities markets to eventually turn around and follow Mexico into the red. If the ETF is a strong leader, however, it means the fears were way overblown and the equities market as a whole is undervalued.

Just as this pandemic mess appears to have started in Mexico, hints about where the American markets are headed could emerge from the region early next week.

As much as I hate to admit it, the Obama administration did the right thing by keeping the borders open. It gives us an opportunity to sneak across the Rio Grande and grab some profits.

Source: Bears vs. Bulls: What About the Pigs?

Global oil demand is not going to “plummet.”  And for the FT to say so is just plain silly, if not irresponsible.  OK, I know.  There’s an old saying that they teach in journalism schools.  “You have to sell newspapers.”  But this declaration by the FT highlights the perils of letting a headline-writer do your thinking for you.  It’s what I call “arguing a screaming conclusion.”  And a wrong conclusion at that.

Oil Demand – Down, Then Up

But let’s move past the headlines.  The Financial Times article explains that the World Bank has just issued a new study.  The World Bank believes that the world is entering into the toughest economic times “since the Great Depression.”  Thus overall world oil demand may fall by about half a million barrels per day in 2009.  That’s what the World Bank states in its report.

Only half a million barrels?  Heck, the total world demand for oil in the past year was about 87 million barrels per day (a fact that the FT article fails to note).  By comparison, the Saudi oil tanker that was hijacked off the coast of Somalia held two million barrels of crude oil.  And despite this act of piracy oil prices still fell over the next couple of weeks, even without that tanker plying its route across the deep blue seas.

So if the world experiences the next “Great Depression” (Release 2.0, I guess), a reduction in overall oil demand of half a million barrels per day is down in the statistical noise.  And what the World Bank is saying about the grim future of the world economy is not the equivalent of “plummeting” demand.  At least, not half a million barrels of lower usage.

How Bad Is It?

How bad is it out there?  Well, according to this week’s MasterCard Spending-Pulse data, U.S. retail gasoline demand is back to about the same levels it showed earlier in 2008.  That is, high gas prices hurt demand over the summer and into the fall.  (I drove less.  Didn’t you?)  But the current low fuel prices have evidently allowed demand to recover.  People are driving more.  It’s basic Economics 101.

I was talking with an economist for the American Petroleum Institute about two weeks ago.  He told me that overall gasoline demand in October was down 3%, year-to-year.  But diesel fuel usage was up by the same amount.  Overall U.S. oil demand is down about 8%, but that reflects the slowing use of oil in industry.  Out on the road, people are still driving and trucks are still hauling.

For all the sound and fury about the run-up in oil and fuel prices through July, and then the fall in prices after that, the aggregate demand for oil is only changing at the margins.

Built-In Oil Demand

In both the developed and developing worlds, there’s a lot of oil demand built into the economic and social energy system.   That’s what modern development is all about.  That’s how the system was built over the past 100 years or so.  Yes, you can wish that the system were different.  You can even try to change the system – and risk collapsing it in the process.

Whatever you do, you can’t change the system very fast.  To paraphrase a former Secretary of Defense, “You live in the world with the energy system you have.  Not the energy system you might wish you had.”

So at best, if you want to change things you are looking at a generational shift.  If you have a generation.  Do we have a generation?

What Will OPEC Do?

Let’s try looking at some different numbers.  How about 7 million barrels of oil per day?  That’s the amount of output that OPEC might have to shut-in if it wants to get prices headed back upwards in to the range of $75 per barrel or so.  At least, that’s according to Philip Verleger, a long-time industry player as quoted recently in Platt’s industry newsletter The Barrel.

Current daily oil output from OPEC is about 32 million barrels per day.  Verleger thinks that OPEC’s output ought to be more like 25 million barrels per day.  There’s the 7 million barrel shift.  Easy, right?  It would be as if Iran, Iraq and Qatar simply stopped exporting oil.  How likely is that to happen?  Umm… yes.  Clearly, Verleger has a radical take on things.

One way or another, can OPEC cut production significantly?  Does OPEC have the discipline to manage its own affairs to cut 2 million barrels, or 4 million, let alone 7 million barrels per day?   The issue is that numerous OPEC nations cheat on their production quotas.  Hey, they need the money.  Thus they lift the oil and sell it.  Really, cheating on OPEC quotas is not a problem.  It’s a tradition.

What of the Future?

Looking ahead by more than about two years, world oil demand is certainly going to grow.  It almost does not matter what we do in the U.S. or Europe.  When you look at the numbers of young people who are already born and living and growing up in the developing world, the demand will be there.  Many of these young people already have a cell phone and a laptop computer.  When they finish school, they will want an apartment and a car.

And at the rate things are going, the energy industry is still under-investing in the necessary systems of the future.  Depletion is still ongoing.  It gets back to the very basic point that every barrel you lift from the ground leaves one less barrel down there.  And the overall global depletion rate is 6% at best.  Maybe it’s 8%.  It might be 10%.  To replace that depletion, the general trend is for the energy industry to go further away, to deeper waters or more remote sites, to drill deeper wells, with hotter temperatures and higher pressures.  Those little hydrocarbon molecules are just plain tough to catch.

And keep in mind that nobody can produce oil that has not been discovered.  Or developed.  Or for which there are no handling facilities.  That takes investment, and lots of it.  Which requires money and finance, which is in rather short supply just now.  So there are just a few years in which the world can reorder the way it does oil, let alone the big picture on energy.  And there are a lot of moving parts in all of this.

The Moving Parts of Oil Production

One of our fellow (sister, actually) readers is deeply involved in monitoring the world oil situation.  The other day she sent me a thoughtful list of “ifs” that have to happen just to begin to get future oil production on firm ground.  Here it is:

• IF oil price rises above the marginal cost of new non-OPEC supply in time to get new production back on track;
• IF oil-producing countries and China stop subsidizing prices to their own populations;
• IF OPEC gives international oil companies (IOCs) like Exxon, Shell, Chevron, etc. access to explore and develop their reserves;
• IF the trillions in exploration and infrastructure capital are invested;
• IF OPEC invests seriously in increasing their own capacity;
• IF enhanced oil recovery (EOR) processes can really increase the recovery rate as much as hoped;
• IF the reported reserves are really there;
• IF the U.S. Geological Survey predictions of “yet-to-find” oil in the Arctic, offshore and elsewhere are correct;
• IF the Saudis can are capable of reaching and sustaining 15 million barrels per day of output;

IF, IF, IF …

“And,” adds my correspondent, “virtually all of these are outside the control of any policies that might be set by the oil-importing nations of the West.”

So unless a lot of things happen – pretty soon and in the right sequence, and competently — we’re going to be faced with the prospect that there’s not going to be enough oil to go around.  So oil prices are going to head back up.  People and governments are going to get desperate over supplies.  And much of the usual and predictable bad stuff that you’ve heard before is going to happen.  Which gets back to that Financial Times headline.  “Plummeting” demand?  Really.

A Few More Dots to Connect

President-Elect Barack Obama made a major announcement last weekend.  It was along the lines that his administration would work to invest in infrastructure.  Congress loved it because it means that the politicians can appropriate money to spend on concrete and steel.  That’s what I’ve been saying would happen.  But it’s nice to hear it.

The announcement was good in the short term for a couple of the OI stocks, like Alcoa (AA:NYSE), Cemex (CX:NYSE) and General Electric (GE:NYSE).   They all have things to sell into an infrastructure buildout, as do more recent additions like Koppers Holdings (KOP:NYSE) and Allegheny Technologies (ATI:NYSE).

Where will the U.S. government get the money to pay for the infrastructure buildout?  Same place it gets all the money to bail out the banks and Wall Street, I guess.  It’ll borrow it.  And in the process the U.S. borrowing will soak up most of the nation’s “spare” capital, such as it is.  U.S. government borrowing will crowd private borrowing.

The U.S. government can borrow money for the time being.  For some strange reason, people still want to buy U.S. Treasury bills, bonds and notes.  Don’t ask me why.  The interest rates are just about zero (safety sells, I suppose).  And the dollar is strong.

Actually, the dollar is much stronger than it ought to be.  I expect a major dollar-correction in the first quarter of 2009, which will be good for foreign-denominated stocks that trade on the Toronto Exchange.  (Although Canada is having some surprising political issues right now.  I’d appreciate hearing from Canadian readers about their take on what’s going on with Prime Minister Harper.)

In the longer run, the U.S. expenditures will come back as inflation.  That means that you want to look at owning gold and shares in the best-run gold miners.  If I had to pick just one gold miner with the best prospects, it would be Kinross Gold (KGC:NYSE).   It’s well managed.  Kinross just completed a series of mine expansions.  And it’s ramping up production to sell increasing levels of output into a generally rising gold market.

Source: Whither the Oil Markets

I’m not sure about death, but the broader U.S. economy is like a 2:00 A.M. drunk, continuing to stumble towards the end of a mind-altering 2008, with little long-term relief in sight. Will it ever find its way home again?

One of President-elect Barack Obama’s most ambitious and large-scale plans quite literally seeks to dig America out of this mess – and here’s how you can profit, too. But you’d better act fast. Some of Wall Street’s big boys are already placing their bets.

The Eisenhower Model

Obama will take the oath as 44th president of the United States on Jan. 20.

Since his Nov. 4 victory, the more he’s said about “getting to work immediately” and having “no time to waste,” the more I think the inauguration ceremony will be a time-consuming inconvenience, distracting him from fixing America’s problems.

One key area in which he’s pledged to spend his way out of the mire is by tackling the country’s aging and rapidly deteriorating infrastructure. He plans to make the largest investment to repair and upgrade the country’s public works systems since Dwight Eisenhower spearheaded the nationwide interstate highway system in the 1950s.

In short, this means utility industries like electric and water will receive huge cash infusions. Roads and bridges will be repaired and rebuilt. Schools will be modernized, part of which will include improving Internet access to a nation that ranks 15th in the world in broadband adoption. Energy efficiency, particularly in government buildings, will be increased. The healthcare industry will make greater use of technology to streamline and computerize medical records to cut costs.

That’s the plan anyway. And Obama says it will create 2.5 million jobs by 2011.

Obama’s economic brain trust is currently “busy working, crunching the numbers… to determine what the size and scope of the economic recovery plan needs to be. But it’s going to be substantial.”

Kind of vague right now, I know. But just yesterday (Thursday), one of his advisers floated a dollar figure of $850 billion. In terms of infrastructure upgrades, 5,000 road and bridge projects could get under Caterpillar Digs Deep into the Developing World for Profit way immediately after Obama puts his autograph on the bill.

Brick By Brick… Bridge By Bridge

With U.S. infrastructure set to have a sweaty wad of cash lobbed in its direction, construction firms are lining up to grab a share of the spoils, particularly as the need for equipment and raw materials rises.

Appropriately, we start in Obama’s home state of Illinois, which is also home to the world’s largest manufacturers of construction and mining equipment, engines, and industrial turbines. Founded in 1986 and based in Peoria, Caterpillar (CAT) has seen its shares shoot up from $37 to over $45, as the company feeds off the infrastructure buzz.

One of Caterpillar’s fellow Illinois-based construction equipment manufacturers, Deere & Company (DE), could also be set to extend a share price boost that has seen the price surge from the upper $20s on November 20 to over $39 today.

If you want a more diversified way to play the industrial and construction sector, take a look at the Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) exchange traded fund (ETF).

On the engineering front, head west and look no further than California’s Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC), which is the largest publicly traded engineering firm in the U.S. The infrastructure love is spreading across the sector, as the stock shot up on news that it has secured two more contracts…

1. A five-year, $17.5 million contract from the Peninsula Corridor Joint Powers Board that will see Jacobs serve SamTrans and the San Mateo County Transportation Authority agencies to work on three programs. This includes project management, scheduling, budget management, and more.

1. A contract from Pima County, Arizona to provide project management and construction inspection services for the Ina Road water reclamation project. Construction costs here will total about $200 million.

Jacobs pulls in a whopping $11 billion annually and employs more than 57,000 workers – a number that could grow under Obama’s bold plan.

Speaking of water, if you’re looking to cash in on this critical industry amid a surging global population, increasing pollution, and a depleting, finite amount of water resources, check out leading firm Watts Water Technologies Inc. (WTS) or the sector ETF, PowerShares Water Resources (PHO), which tracks the price and yield performance of the Palisades Water index.

Be sure to also pay a visit to our own free Smart Profits Report research section, where you can read much more about the water problems facing the world – and the vast profit potential that the industry holds. We’ve got two in-depth (pun intended) water reports up there.

Get Raw

On the raw materials side, several firms spring to mind as potential winners of the Obama infrastructure initiative. And as Jim Cramer might say, they’re “best of breed” in their industries.

• Cement: South of the border – in Garza Garcia, Mexico, to be exact – you can find Cemex SAB de CV (ADR: CX), a world leader in producing, distributing, and selling cement. And when it comes to infrastructure rebuilding and repairs, you don’t get many more commodities more important than this one. Its market cap of almost $8 billion is evidence of this.

• Steel: Talk about a liftoff. U.S. Steel Corp. (X) shares have surged from the mid $20s on November 20 to a current price around $37 a share.

• Copper: Copper hit a 52-week high of $127.24/ton on May 21, 2008. The price now sits around $20/ton. Quite a slump for what is the largest publicly traded copper producer, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX). You can blame the prolonged commodities sector slump for that, in addition to the stock market’s woes. But in an Obama-fueled, infrastructure rebuilding rampage, I’m betting on a resurgence.

• Aluminum: Go large. The leader here is Alcoa Inc. (AA). Like FCX, Alcoa has endured a rocky year. Having traded at a 52-week high of $44.77 in May, the stock market’s tank job has whipped this stock into submission. Shares are currently trading around $10 and with a 0.37 Price/Earnings-to-Growth (PEG) ratio, the market thinks it’s ridiculously undervalued.

The bottom line here is that companies like these could all stand to profit from a huge ramp up in infrastructure spending. What’s more, they’re all solid, well-established, industry-leading firms with strong cash positions, doing business in areas where there are clear, critical needs. If you’re looking for outperformers, infrastructure stocks are set up well for 2009.

From Eisenhower To Obama …The Firms Poised To Cash In On The New U.S. Infrastructure Revolution

This from Smart Profits Report:

Six weeks from today, Barack Obama will take the oath as 44^th president of the United States.

Since his election victory, the more he’s said about “getting to work immediately” and having “no time to waste,” the more I think the inauguration ceremony will be a time-consuming inconvenience, distracting him from fixing America’s problems!

One key area in which he’s pledged to spend his way out of the mire is by tackling the country’s aging and rapidly deteriorating infrastructure. He plans to make the largest investment to repair and upgrade the country’s public works systems since Dwight Eisenhower spearheaded the nationwide interstate highway system in the 1950s.

In short, this means utility industries like electric and water will receive huge cash infusions. Roads and bridges will be repaired and rebuilt. Schools will be modernized, part of which will include improving Internet access to a nation that ranks 15^th in the world in broadband adoption. Energy efficiency, particularly in government buildings, will be increased. The healthcare industry will make greater use of technology to streamline and computerize medical records to cut costs.

That’s the plan anyway. And Obama says it will create 2.5 million jobs by 2011. But we want profits. Read on to find out how you can grab some…

It’s The Economy, Stupid… Six Weeks Away From $500 Billion Rescue Plan

Obama’s economic brain trust is currently “busy working, crunching the numbers… to determine what the size and scope of the economic recovery plan needs to be. But it’s going to be substantial.”

Kinda vague right now, I know. But early estimates put the economic recovery bill at $500 billion. In terms of infrastructure upgrades, 5,000 road and bridge projects could get underway immediately after Obama puts his autograph on the bill.

Here are some investments that could revel in the building boom…

Brick By Brick… Bridge By Bridge

When the U.S. infrastructure sets to have a sweaty wad of cash lobbed in its direction, construction firms are lining up to grab a share of the spoils, as the need for equipment and raw materials rises.

Appropriately, we start in Obama’s home state of Illinois, which is also home to the world’s largest manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, engines, and industrial turbines. Founded in 1986 and based in Peoria, Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) has shot up from $37 to over $43 over the past five trading days, as it feeds off the infrastructure buzz.

One of Caterpillar’s fellow Illinois-based construction equipment manufacturers, Deere & Company (NYSE:DE), could also be set to extend a share price boost that has seen the price surge from the upper $20s on November 20 to over $38 today.

If you want a more diversified way to play the industrial and construction sector, take a look at the ETF, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:XLI). ETF’s are a smarter investment choice in a rollercoaster market; our Guest Editorial on Good ETF Investments tells us why.

On the engineering front, head west and look no further than California’s Jacobs Engineering Group (NYSE:JEC), which is the largest publicly traded engineering firm in the U.S. The infrastructure love is spreading across the sector, as the stock shot up today on news that it has secured two more contracts…

1. A five-year, $17.5 million contract from the Peninsula Corridor Joint Powers Board (JPB) that will see Jacobs serve SamTrans and the San Mateo County Transportation Authority (SMCTA) agencies to work on three programs. This includes project management, scheduling, budget management, and more.
2. A contract from Pima County, Arizona to provide project management and construction inspection services for the Ina Road water reclamation project. Construction costs here will total about $200 million.

Jacobs pulls in a whopping $11 billion annually and employs more than 57,000 workers – a number that could grow under Obama’s bold plan.

And speaking of water, if you’re looking to cash in on this critical industry amid a surging global population, increasing pollution, and a depleting, finite amount of water resources, check out leading firm Watts Water Technologies Inc. (NYSE:WTS) or the sector ETF, PowerShares Water Resources (NYSE:PHO), which tracks the price and yield performance of the Palisades Water index.

Be sure to also pay a visit to our own free Smart Profits Report research section, where you can read much more about the water problems facing the world – and the vast profit potential that the industry holds. We’ve got two in-depth (pun intended) water reports up there. An earlier issue titled, The Water Industry analyzes how the economics of this increasingly scarce commodity are shaping our world.

Get Raw

On the raw materials side, several firms spring to mind as potential winners of the Obama Infrastructure Initiative (I just made that term up). And as Jim Cramer might say, they’re “best of breed” in their industries.

Cement: South of the border – in Garza Garcia, Mexico, to be exact – you can find Cemex (NYSE:CX), a world leader in producing, distributing, and selling cement. And when it comes to infrastructure rebuilding and repairs, you don’t get many more commodities more important than this one. Its market cap of almost $8 billion is evidence of this.

Steel: Talk about a liftoff. U.S. Steel Corp. (NYSE:X) shares have surged from the mid $20s on November 20 to a current price around $37, having enjoyed its biggest daily jump in almost 20 years on Monday.

Copper: Its 52-week high on May 21, 2008 was $127.24. Its price now sits around $20. Quite a slump for what is the largest publicly traded copper producer, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE:FCX). You can blame the prolonged commodities sector slump for that, in addition to the stock market’s woes. But in an Obama-fueled infrastructure rebuilding rampage, I’m betting on a resurgence here.

Aluminum: Go large. The leader here is Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA). Like FCX, Alcoa has endured a rocky year. Having traded at a 52-week high of $44.77 in May, the stock market’s tank job has whipped this stock into submission. Shares are currently trading around $9.50 and with a 0.37 PEG ratio (Price/Earnings-to-Growth), the market thinks it’s ridiculously undervalued.

The bottom line here is that companies like these could all stand to profit from a huge ramp up in infrastructure spending. What’s more, they’re all solid, well-established, industry-leading firms in strong cash positions, doing business in areas where there are clear, critical needs. If you’re looking for outperformers, infrastructure stocks are set up well for 2009.

Source: From Eisenhower To Obama… The Firms Poised To Cash In On The New U.S. Infrastructure Revolution

Since the beginning of 2008, six analysts have downgraded the Mexican cement giant, Cemex (NYSE: CX). Today, Citigroup (NYSE: C) became the latest to lower its outlook.

None of the downgrades were an outright sell. Instead, they went from buy or overweight to hold or neutral.

In this take-no-prisoners market, Cemex is an obvious target. As goes the worldwide housing sector, so goes Cemex. But is that any reason for the stock to plunge to a 52-week low of $7.90 from $33.40?

We don’t think so.

Cemex is a major player. The company has operations in more than 50 countries that produce 96 million metric tons of cement annually. Cemex is has become one of the largest cement companies in the world. Consider it the IBM of cement.

Now with some recent news, Cemex could be poised for a rebound.

For starters, Mexican president Felipe Calderón unveiled plans for $4.35 billion in emergency spending on infrastructure next year.

Unlike the Bush administration, whose trickle-down economics favors handouts to the wealthy, Calderón is following in the footsteps of President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal, which created public-works jobs for ordinary Americans.

Calderón’s $4.35 billion infrastructure build-out is slated to begin in 2009, pending approval by Mexico’s congress.

It would be used to build infrastructure projects such as bridges and highways that “will bring direct social benefits to millions of Mexicans and help keep our economy on track,” Calderón said.

In its 3Q guidance issued on September 11, Cemex noted that the “infrastructure sector continues to be affected by a delay in project starts, which are expected to pick up in the last quarter of 2008.”

Still, the company’s bread-and-butter is the residential market, which has also come to near stand-still in Mexico.

Cemex’s 3Q guidance also forecast domestic cement and ready-mix sales volumes in Mexico to decrease by about 3% and 1% respectively, versus the comparable period last year — a bad hit but far from crippling.

Overall, 3Q sales are expected to be about $5.9 billion flat on a like-to-like basis, versus the same period last year. Revenue should be approximately $17.6 billion, a 2% increase in the same period.

To put that guidance into perspective, let’s look back to 2Q and 1Q of this year.

For 2Q, net sales increased 29% to $6.3 billion, versus $4.9 billion in the comparable period in 2007.

1Q looked particularly good. Net sales rose 26% to $5.4 billion over the comparable period in 2007.

Watch Cemex. As soon as the stock creeps back up, it may be a great contrarian buy.

• Target Corp. (TGT) yesterday (Tuesday) reported a 7.6% drop in second-quarter profit to $634 million, or 82 cents per share. Sales were up 5.7% to $15 billion from $14.2 billion, but same-store sales, or sales at stores opened at least a year, slipped 0.4%.

• General Dynamics Corp. (GD) announced yesterday (Tuesday) that it would buy Jet Aviation for about $2.25 billion in cash. General Dynamics – best known for its tanks, ships, and submarines – has significantly expanded its aerospace unit in recent years and expects its fleet of flying business jets to double in the next decade to roughly 30,000 planes, The Associated Press reported.

• Venezuela’s government seized control of cement plants owned by Mexico’s Cemex SAB (ADR: CX), in the latest attempt by President Hugo Chavez to nationalize large portions of the economy, The Associated Press reported. Government officials backed by National Guard troops took control of Cemex’s local plants late Monday night, after a 60-day period for negotiating expired.

• Premier League soccer champion Manchester United has agreed on a five-year, $18.2 million sponsorship deal with Saudi Telecom Co., the Arab world’s largest phone company, Bloomberg News reported. Saudi Telecom will have exclusive rights to use United’s brand in its domestic marketing, and to offer subscribers game highlights and team news through mobile phones.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker feels the Federal Open Market Committee might have to hike interest rates before signs of an economic recovery are confirmed. “It is important to withdraw this monetary policy stimulus in a timely way,” Lacker said yesterday (Tuesday) in a Bloomberg Television interview. “That may require us to withdraw before we are certain all of the weakness is behind us and before we are completely certain that financial markets are as tranquil as we would like to see.”

• Louis V. Gerstner Jr. will step down as chairman of The Carlyle Group after five years with the private-equity firm. Gerstner will remain on as senior advisor, The New York Times reported. “Initially, I committed to be chairman of Carlyle for one year. But year after year I continued to be impressed with Carlyle’s value creation model and its efforts to globalize the firm,” Mr. Gerstner said in a statement. “However, at this point in my life, I have a number of goals and interests yet to fulfill, requiring me to step back at Carlyle.” Carlyle has yet to name a successor.

• A federal court ordered Philadelphia Alternative Asset Management Co. and the hedge fund’s founder, Paul Eustace, to pay $279 million in restitution, plus a $12 million fine. Eustace and the PAAM hedge fund, which collapsed in 2005, were accused of defrauding clients by U.S. commodities regulators, Bloomberg News reported.

• Popular fast-food chain Quiznos Corp. announced yesterday (Tuesday) that it plans to double its international presence over the next two years. The Denver-based sandwich chain said it was developing restaurant deals in India and Brazil, and will expand its presence in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, DowJones reported.

Source: Global Investing Roundups Wednesday, August 20th, 2008