Commodity speculators take heed: The popular crude oil exchange-traded note DXO is kicking the bucket — quickly and controversially — and other similar securities might follow suit.

America is witnessing a mammoth increase in the money supply.  According to the U.S. Federal Reserve, seasonally adjusted M2 has gone from $7.25 trillion in July of 2007 – to over $8.37 trillion today.  That’s 15.44% more money circulating around the economy in just two years, a colossal $1.12 trillion increase.

We have no shame here at Notes. When legendary underground investor Jim Rogers makes a call we listen. And we listen good.  Rogers correctly predicted the commodities rally in 1999. And between 1970 and 1980, when he partnered with George Soros at the Quantum Fund, his portfolio made gains of 4,200% when the S&P 500 rose by 47%. To say he’s a legend is an understatement.

While the dumb money is chasing the rally in stocks; the smart money is keeping a close eye on the economy. Bill Bonner has been hammering home this point in the Daily Reckoning. We’ve been doing the same here at Notes. (Consider it a friendly warning.)

The big daddy of underground investors, Jim Rogers, says the best way to play this downturn is to focus on commodities and agriculture ETFs (hat tip The Daily Crux). The primary logic behind this play is simple to understand.

For quite some time I was interested in recommending that my readers invest in Russia. I still had concerns about some political issues and organized crime in the country.  Most experts out there tell people to stay away from Russia, so I knew I had to do further research myself.

While the mainstream media has been focused on the run-up in equities, one overlooked sector has turned “red hot,” according to Justice Litle in Taipan Daily. Justice is talking about the grain markets – foodstuffs like corn, wheat, soy and sugar.

Mr. Market has begun to show clear signs of split personality disorder in recent weeks. Now that investors have exhaled in relief that a deflationary apocalypse has been avoided, the new reality of reflation and stagnation is sinking in…

Why invest in commodities? Two and a half billion people are going to live like Americans in the next 20 years and prices go up over time, that’s the nature of inflation.

The world’s largest credit-rating companies say mortgage lenders Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) have bullet-proof Aaa credit ratings. But Bloomberg says derivatives traders are treating the discount mortgage brokers as if they are rated five levels lower.

And, ominously, the price of contracts used to speculate on the creditworthiness of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and to protect against a default doubled in the past two months.

What about the government’s implied guarantee of the debt held by the companies? It seems investor confidence in short supply.