• Japan’s economy is once again growing, with its gross domestic product (GDP) rising 3.7% in the second quarter. A rebound in exports to China and a large stimulus program helped Japan bounce back from contraction that, at an annualized rate of 11.7%, was more than double that of the United States’ in the first quarter. Officials at Japanese companies think the nation’s worst recession since World War II is nearly over, according to a survey released last weekend.

• The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index rose to 18 this month, a one-year high, Bloomberg Newsreported. Still, a reading below 50 means most respondents view conditions as poor. “Inventory is being cleared and that is starting to benefit the new-home market,” Julia Coronado, a senior economist at BNP Paribas SA in New York told Bloomberg. “With a few months’ lag, that will lead to a turnaround in construction activity.”

• The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic indexrose to 12.1, higher than forecast and the first increase since April 2008. Any reading above zero indicates that manufacturing is growing. “Inventories were drawn down to such amazingly low levels that companies need to start bringing them back,” said Tom Porcelli, a senior economist at RBC Capital Markets Corp. in aBloomberg News interview. “We are coming out of the recession.It’s probably over at this point.“

• Credit card default rates showed signs of stabilization in July,Reuters reported, citing regulatory filings by multiple large U.S. banks. Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC), the bank with the highest default and delinquency rates saw its charge-off rate shrink slightly to 13.81% in July from 13.86%. “It just seems to bear out what we heard in the second-quarter calls, that things seem to be getting marginally better — and I would stress marginally — on the consumer side,” Nancy Bush, founder of NAB Research, said of Bank of America.

• Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) and General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) joint venture MSNBC.com has acquired “hyperlocal” news and information Web site EveryBlock. Terms were not disclosed, but in June Time Warner Inc.’s (NYSE: TWX) AOL acquired a similar Web site, Patch for $7 million, The Washington Post reported. EveryBlock offers news in 15 cities. “Joining with MSNBC.com gives us the resources to turn EveryBlock from a cool, useful service into something much bigger,” said Adrian Holovaty, founder of EveryBlock. Holovaty and the company’s staff of five will remain based in Chicago.

• Reader’s Digest Association Inc., whose namesake magazine says it is the bestselling magazine in the world, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as a part of a prearranged plan with lenders to cut debt by 75%. If the court approves the deal, Reader’s Digest’s debt would be reduced to $550 million from its current $2.2 billion. “Our deal has already been negotiated and hammered out with a majority of our creditors,” said Chief Executive Officer Mary Berner in an interview with Reuters. The announcement “doesn’t affect our employees, it doesn’t affect the vast majority of vendors, it doesn’t mean we’ll do mass layoffs, it doesn’t mean we’re going to be selling off assets. It’s business as usual.”

• Continuing weak demand, bad weather and charges related to the halting of its expansion contributed to a 19% drop in Lowe’s Cos.’(NYSE: LOW) second quarter earnings. The world’s second-largest home improvement retailer after Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) saw its profit fall to $759 million, or 51 cents a share for the quarter ended July 31. That compares to a net income of $938 million, or 63 cents a share in the same period last year. Sales fell 4.6% to $13.84 billion and same-store sales dropped 9.5%.

Source: Investment News Briefs Tuesday, August 18, 2009

According to the WSJ, there is a “rapid rise” in default rates on ARM mortgages,  mortgages that give borrowers with good credit several different monthly-payment options, reports. And a report by Citigroup says losses on ARMs may be “close to subprime” in some cases.

These mortgages, which are sometimes known as “pick-a-pay” or payment-option mortgages but are generically called option adjustable-rate mortgages, are turning out, in some cases, to be even more caustic than subprime loans, in part because the loan balance and the monthly payments on some loans is growing even as home prices are falling.

These loans have become the focus of investigations and a spate of lawsuits by borrowers who believe they were misinformed about the mortgages’ complicated structure.

“Buying real estate isn’t a popular view right now, says Floyd Brown, over at InvestmentU.com. “But that’s what being a contrarian is all about.”

Floyd thinks we could be closer to the end of the bear market in real estate, than the beginning. “This doesn’t mean we are out of the woods yet, but its time to start scouting for under-priced values in real estate, especially in the commercial sector…”

Floyd has found a way to buy $10,000 worth of real estate for $6,700. To find out more, click here.

In its twice-yearly review of the global financial markets, the UN agency also warned that there is a “collective failure” to grasp the extent of leverage in the financial system that could further damage the health of the US economy.

According to a report on Reuters:

“The credit shock emanating from the US subprime crisis is set to broaden amid a significant economic slowdown,” Jaime Caruana, director of the IMF’s monetary and capital markets department, said at a news conference.

“The deterioration in credit has moved up and across the credit spectrum to prime residential and commercial mortgage markets, and to corporate credit markets. As the credit cycle turns, default rates are likely to rise across the board.”

“The horses are out of the barn,” says Gary North in The Daily Reckoning.

“The subprime real estate loans have been made. The slightly safer Alt-A loans have been made. The unqualified borrowers bought their homes at the top of the housing bubble: 2005, 2006. In 2007, the market visibly reversed. Now the delinquency rate has risen.

“The investment banks that loaned smart people all that stupid money are now hemorrhaging. They are lining up to get paid by busted hedge funds. When the courts and the lawyers get through with them, whatever is left over will have to be put on the books at market value, not book value.”