This from Taipan Daily:

With the prospect for “wars and rumors of wars” on an unsettling rise, now could be a good time to take a closer look at defense stocks.

The backdrop to 2009 thus far reminds me of that old New Testament line: “And ye shall hear of wars and rumors of wars.”

And in fact, “wars and rumors of wars” is a fair description of what we’re seeing now.

In the Middle East, we have Israel at war with Hamas. In China and Russia, simmering public tensions have the authorities deeply concerned. Ukraine, too, is wrapped up with Russia in a natural gas dispute that has (literally) left Europe in the cold.

In Iceland, protesters throw food and garbage at Parliament for lack of a better way to express their fury. In Pakistan, the national security adviser has just been fired over mounting tensions with India. And things got so bad in Greece at one point, the riot police ran out of tear gas.

Meanwhile, the more traditional bad apple countries – Iran, North Korea and so on – have remained uncharacteristically quiet. Can that last?

An Unwelcome Surprise

For now, the world is still deeply mired in economic concerns. Questions abound, like: Will deflation be vanquished? Will China and India grow fast enough to keep the good times on track? Can the oil producers maintain order in the face of collapsing revenue? In the name of emergency stimulus, will America spend far too much for its own good? Will it spend enough?

With all this on the plate, an outbreak of wider-scale war is probably the last thing on most leaders’ minds. But as they say, when it rains, it pours…

A serious, multi-country conflict (or the intensely real threat of one) would be considered a truly out-of-the-blue, “black swan” type surprise for the year 2009.

But if it comes to pass, it wouldn’t be quite the black swan (unexpected event) one might think. This is because economic turmoil and geopolitical turmoil have a natural link.

Are you ready to profit from the “bounce multiplier” that’s coming on January 21st?

In just 12 days, two key conditions for soaring petroleum prices coincide for the first time. Here’s how you could play the most violent price rebound in crude history for 190 times your money or more…

Playing the Nationalism Card

The linkage comes from the fact that when a country like Russia or China runs into difficulty, the leadership at the top finds itself in peril.

This goes doubly true for regimes that have made a sort of “prosperity bargain” with the public: “We deliver the economic goods, you ignore the unsavory aspects of our control.”

In conditions like the ones we face now – when the proverbial solid waste hits the proverbial oscillating wind device – the prosperity bargain begins to fray. If it frays badly enough, a new playbook is required.

One time-tested response is to play the nationalism card – i.e., turn public anger away from home affairs and towards an outside enemy.

This added dimension makes the threat of further “wars and rumors of wars” a bit too close for comfort.

Whither Defense Stocks?

All this pot-stirring could warrant a closer look at defense stocks.

The Philly Defense Index – loaded up with big, muscular names like Northrup Grumman, Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics Corp – has held its own in the 2009 rally thus far.

Another reason to be interested in defense is the possibility of gravy from an ever-expanding Obama stimulus plan. As the White House and Congress plan to shovel huge amounts of money into the economy, one of the challenges they will face is deploying large amounts of cash quickly without wasting it. (To a large degree that will happen anyway, but that’s a different kettle of fish…)

Take California, for example – a state on the brink of, or perhaps deep in the thick of, fiscal peril.

Could the state that was the epicenter of the housing bubble (and bust) benefit from a marked revival of defense spending, considering what a boon the defense industry has been to California’s economy in the past?

Surely the thought has crossed a few minds.

Martin Feldstein, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Reagan, has also argued in the Wall Street Journal that defense would be an ideal recipient of mass-stimulus spending. We’re due to spend the money anyway, Feldstein says… there is a shortage of time in which to make good decisions, and this is clearly an area that needs the cash… in sum, Feldstein concludes, a cool $30 billion a year or so should do the trick.

Nimble and High-Tech

I turned to my pal Zach Scheidt (retired hedge fund manager, trader extraordinaire and editor of Death Cross Trader) to get his take on what looks good in the defense space.

Zach’s advice, at least the way I heard it, boiled down to a focus on nimble and high-tech. As he has in the past, Zach pointed out that some of the mid- and small-cap names have greater potential to “move the needle” in terms of profit growth than the big, lumbering large caps do.

Zach’s preference for high-tech made perfect sense to me, given the U.S. military’s severe shortage of manpower at the moment. We are spread so thin around the world these days, it seems a given that Uncle Sam would want to pay up for any tech edge possible that could help with the strain on the troop situation.

I also asked Zach if there were any defense names in particular on his radar screen. And since this is a guy who knows U.S. equities like the back of his hand, of course he said yes…

“One of the most interesting companies I am following in this industry,” Zach told me, “is a company called AeroVironment, Inc (NASDAQ:AVAV).”

Enough is Enough! Stop Paying Washington’s Secret “Retirement Tax” Today!

Over the course of the next 5 years, you could lose up to 65% of your hard earned savings. This FREE report lets you in on the 100% legal way to dodge this secret “tax” and actually shows you how to grow your portfolio even bigger than you thought possible. Never hand over another cent and lock in your retirement dreams right now. Claim your copy here!

“One of the company’s most intriguing products is a small, un-manned airplane that can be carried onto the battlefield. If soldiers want to know what is over the next ridge or in the next valley, they can launch the plane by hand. Sophisticated cameras and radio equipment relay information to headquarters and the front line.”

“This type of technology,” Zach further explains, “shows how the current military is thinking outside the box when it comes to warfare. The rules are changing as tactics and constraints continue to evolve. And new systems and technology will play a major part in equipping the military for future missions.”

I asked Zach if he would consider AVAV a buy right now.

“Not just yet,” he said. “The stock is a bit expensive here, as investors are rightfully excited about the prospects and the share price has gotten ahead of itself. But a pullback in the coming weeks or months could provide a solid entry-point for this long-term winner in the defense space.”

Source: “Wars and Rumors of Wars” = Time to Look at Defense Stocks?

U.S. stocks fell sharply on Friday in response to a grim U.S. jobs report that sent bond prices higher in Europe and pushed the price of crude down to $42 a barrel as prospects for the world’s economies darkened.

European shares extended losses in afternoon trade as investors reeled at U.S. government data showing a loss of 533,000 jobs in November, the weakest performance in 34 years.

Oils and bank stocks led the decline in Europe, while oil and defense stocks pushed the Dow down in the United States.

The dollar fell to a seven-week low against the yen but rose against the euro as investors once again sought shelter in the U.S. currency.

“When you see such a shocking employment number, you realize the devastating effect that can have on household demand,” said Henk Potts, equity strategist at Barclays Stockbrokers in London.

Shortly after opening, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 67.30 points, or 0.80 percent, at 8,308.94. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 6.59 points, or 0.78 percent, at 838.63. The Nasdaq Composite Index  was down 10.73 points, or 0.74 percent, at 1,434.83.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index was down 3 percent at 797.26 points.

Euro zone government bond futures extended gains to a fresh session high, pushing the 10-year cash yield below 3 percent after the worse-than-expected U.S. jobs report.

The 10-year Bund yield fell to the session low of 2.988 percent, down 9 basis points on the day.

However, U.S. government debt prices fell after the dismal labor report in a sign investors are reluctant to buy government debt with yields at the lowest in over 50 years.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down 19/32 in price to yield 2.62 percent. The 2-year U.S. Treasury note fell 3/32 in price to yield 0.86 percent.

“We’re already at (yield) levels we’ve never seen before. It’s just difficult to continue buying Treasuries at these prices,” said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income analysis at Action Economics in San Francisco.

November’s job losses were the steepest since December 1974, when 602,000 jobs were shed, Labor Department data showed, and were much worse than forecast by analysts polled by Reuters who had predicted a reduction of 340,000 jobs.

The dollar rose against a basket of major currencies, with the U.S. Dollar Index up 0.61 percent at 87.142. Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.01 percent at 92.16.

The euro fell 0.66 percent at $1.2686.

U.S. light sweet crude oil was off 54 cents at $43.13 a barrel, after earlier touching $42 at one point.

Many dealers and analysts expect oil to test the psychologically important $40 a barrel level fairly soon as evidence mounts of a significant decline in oil demand in all the major developed economies.

Spot gold prices fell $13.85 to $751.80 an ounce.

Asian shares edged higher overnight, with the MSCI index of Asian shares outside Japan  rose 0.2 percent, but trimmed gains after the U.S. employment report. The Nikkei average slightly lower, down 0.1 percent.

By Herbert Lash
NEW YORK, Dec 5 (Reuters)

This from Penny Sleuth:

We don’t play politics at Penny Sleuth. Frankly, we can’t agree on politics. But that doesn’t mean smart investors should ignore what Washington’s doing. Some of the largest profits in history spawned from legislation and court rulings.

Take solar energy for example. After the introduction of the Solar Energy Research and advancement Act of 2007, investors watched as solar companies’ share prices exploded.

One of the biggest winners was First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:FSLR). The bill was brought before the House of Representatives on June 19, 2007. Over the next 12 months, First Solar’s shares jumped 300%.

Another was SunPower Corp (NASDAQ:SPWRA). SunPower’s shares blew up 151% in just six months.

Both of these gains can be directly contributed to a small bill being read in the House. This can happen on any particular day with any particular piece of legislation. We never know which bill or act will cause such run ups. But after November 4, we have a pretty good idea.

Obama Profit Opportunity No. 1:
Science’s Most Important Breakthrough in Centuries

While on the campaign trail, Barack Obama called for the ban on stem cells to be peeled back. He said that we have a duty to advance science in any way we can to cure the sick and improve the health of the world.

This should send all stem cell stocks through the roof. But if investors can pinpoint the right biotech/R&D firm, they’ll see the largest of these gains. Potentially collecting triple or even quadruple digit profits.

Fractured Spinal Cord? No Problem

Neuralstem Inc (AMEX:CUR) is an industry leader in Human Neural Stem Cell technology. Simply put, Neuralstem is working on cures for central nervous system diseases. The company currently has four issued patents and 12 more pending. Each of these are crucial to the industry. It limits competition, while providing a lucrative asset for future growth.

These patents cover a specific regenerative process where neural stem cells are administered to the area where a spinal cord fracture occurred. These stem cells grow and heal the fracture, which restores motor functions to the parts of the body where it’s been cut off.

For instance, if someone falls and fractures their spinal cord, there’s a good chance that person will lose control over the lower half of his or her body. In the past, that person would never be able to walk again. With Neuralstem’s technology, a simple injection can restore the person’s control.

Currently, the market values Neuralstem at just $51 million. Shares can be bought for around $1.60. That’s obviously too cheap. It’ll only take one bill, announcement, or speech to send shares flying. It appears that the stem cell ban will be lifted in the first 100 days of the Obama Presidency, so Neuralstem could see a huge boost in early 2009.

Obama Profit Opportunity No. 2:
Fixing Renewable Energy’s Fatal Flaw

There is only a certain amount of time during the day when windmills can produce energy. The average capacity factor for wind power is about 30%. The rest of the time, these windmills sit like giant statues, waiting for the next gust of wind. During that period — the “energy time gap” — no new electricity is going onto the power grids.

The same goes for solar power. The sun doesn’t shine 100% of the time. Even in the vast deserts of the U.S. Southwest in the peak of summer, the sun is up only about 14 hours per day. When it is up, there are problems with cloud coverage. The average capacity factor for solar power is around 25%.

Round-the-Clock Energy Storage

ZBB Energy Corp (AMEX:ZBB) designs and manufactures a special type of fuel cell storage device called Zinc Energy Storage Systems (ZESS). ZBB’s systems are used worldwide in the renewable energy fields. For instance, wind and solar farms use ZESS to store extra energy during peak hours. Then, in off-peak periods (no wind or at night), the ZESS can transmit its stored power to the grid. This system allows for continuous electricity 24 hours a day.

Here’s the best part… It only takes three to four hours to charge a ZESS. That’s plenty of time to store the solar or wind power during peak time. The company sells its systems to wind and solar farms, utilities, and commercial/industrial sites.

Banking on the First 100 Days

Within the first 100 days of Obama’s Administration, the demand will likely multiply. Obama plans to invest $150 billion to help create five million jobs in clean energy over then next 10 years. You can bet that a good portion of that money will be sent to wind and solar farms. Those farms will need to increase efficiency and storage. That’s when they’ll call ZBB.

On top of the spending, Obama has already declared he’ll push for new, strict mandates on energy and efficiency. For instance, he’s calling for 10% of our electricity to come from renewables by 2012 and 25% by 2025.

Obama Profit Opportunity No. 3:
It’s Upgrade Time

Many investors run from the defense industry when they hear a Democrat coming. We think you should jump right in. You see, the largest defense contracts in our nation’s history have come under Democrats. In fact, almost every period of the military buildup has come from a left-of-center White House…with the exception of Ronald Reagan.

As we enter our sixth year of the Iraq War and our eighth year of the one in Afghanistan, our weapons, vehicles, and equipment are desperately overdue for repairs and upgrades.

Whether you are a Democrat or a Republican, you still provide our troops with the best equipment available. It certainly wouldn’t look good for Obama to enter the oval office on day one and cut equipment upgrades to the troops in war zones.

We think he’s going to take the opportunity to “reach across the aisle” and upgrade our military’s technologies and defenses. He’ll want to do that early if he plans to get any of his agenda passed.

Niche Player in a Mega Industry

That’s why we recommend you check out Herley Industries (NASDAQ:HRLY). Herley is a leader in RF microwave and millimeter wave components. These components are crucial to flight instrumentation, weapons sensors, guidance systems, and radars.

The company currently has a backlog of $157 million, with a market cap of just $139 million. Herley’s list of customers include Northrop Grumman, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and the U.S. government.

While you might not have heard of it, Herley has been around since 1965. It’s been designing microwave devices for the defense industry for over 40 years. The company’s technology has been implemented in such projects as the F-16 Falcon, E-2C/D Hawkeye, and the AMRAAM air to air missile.

This kind of background puts it in the front spot for any future defense upgrades. On top of that, it’s stock is extremely cheap. It’s trading at just 0.72 price-to-book, and 0.63 price-to-sales.

Defense is likely a top priority for the incoming Obama Administration. The time is right to jump in on a niche defense company like Herley.

Source: The Three Best Plays for Obama’s First 100 Days

This from Investor’s Daily Edge:

It’s finally here.  The long awaited and hard fought election will end tomorrow (at least I hope we don’t see a repeat of 2000 where we don’t know who won for weeks).  Rather than make predictions about the election itself, I want to tell you how I think things will play out after the election.

First, I think the overall market will rally after the election regardless of which candidate wins.  There could be a knee-jerk reaction to the downside should Obama win, but this is part of the old belief that Democrats are bad for business and investing.  History tells a different story than the actual belief though.

The thing that will happen on Wednesday is that the uncertainty will be removed.  The uncertainty of the election has been weighing on the market for the past few months.  It’s been hard to tell, because of the credit crisis, but trust me the election has been weighing on the market as well.

So overall we will likely see the market rally over the next couple of months.  Historically the market rallies after elections, regardless of whether it is a Republican or Democrat that is elected.

Secondly, as I have expressed in recent articles, the market is extremely oversold and the sentiment is extremely bearish.  So even if this weren’t “the most important election of our life” we would likely see a year-end rally.

As far as each candidate and the sectors they will impact the greatest, the scenarios are very different in some areas and very similar in others.  Let’s look at the winning and losing sectors under both Obama and McCain.

The big winners with an Obama victory will be Biotechnology and Alternative Energy.  With Biotech, the fact that Senator Obama wants to give the healthcare system a complete overhaul will push for new technology that improves healthcare at a lower cost.  Look for incentives to flow into this sector whether it is with tax credits or grants, there will be a push for new developments from the group.  Senator Obama also supports stem-cell research and should he win, look for a boost to stocks in this arena.

Alternative Energy, particularly solar, will be a big beneficiary of an Obama administration.  On the campaign trail he has said he wants to direct $150 billion towards alternative energy and lowering our dependence on foreign oil.  As we all know, what is said on the campaign trail and what is done after the fact can be very different.  While he might not able to direct the whole $150 billion toward the sector, you can bet there will be money pushed that way, how much money is available will be determined later.

One sector that will certainly get hurt with an Obama administration is big-cap pharmaceuticals.  The same desire to overhaul the healthcare system that I mentioned as a benefit to biotech will be a hindrance to pharmaceuticals.  The reason for this is that he will likely push for lower drug prices at the consumer level.  This will limit what the drug makers can charge and limiting their revenues.

As for McCain, the obvious winners will be the Defense sector and oil and gas sectors.  While Obama believes a timeline should be set for withdrawing from Iraq, McCain doesn’t believe such a mandate should be put forth and the U.S. will likely continue to spend heavily on Defense should McCain win.

A McCain victory should also provide a boost to nuclear energy companies. He has made it clear on the campaign trail that he is in favor of finding alternative energy sources beyond oil, but where Obama prefers wind and solar energy, Senator McCain prefers nuclear energy.

One area that will likely lose should McCain win is the infrastructure sector.  Senator McCain wants to curb government spending, at least that is what he is saying on the campaign trail.

Like I said about Mr. Obama wanting to spend $150 billion on alternative energy sources, what is said on the campaign trail and what actually happens after the election are two different things.  Remember President Bush campaigned on less spending as well, but there haven’t been any cuts in spending over the last eight years.

Regardless of which candidate wins, they will be inheriting one heck of a mess.  The current economic environment is one of the worst I have seen in my lifetime, the deficit that we are facing is astronomical, and the job losses we have had over the last year have combined to make this a daunting task for the next administration.

Consumer confidence is at an all time low recently.  The best thing the new President could do for this country is lift the spirits of our citizens.  Consumers are not likely to open up their wallets until they see hope that the economy is improving.  Lifting the confidence level might get them to open their wallets a little.

Regardless of who wins tomorrow, I wish them luck.  They are going to need more after the election than they need it in the election.

Source: Winning And Losing Sectors After The Election