Bill Bonner (The Daily Reckoning):

The Dow rose again yesterday – up 44 points. Gold went up too – to a new record of $1,114.

Can anything stop stocks and gold?

“Gold continues to climb…stoked by inflation worries,” says a headline in the International Herald Tribune.

On one hand, the deflationists are claiming that given the extremely high debt levels in the West, further inflation is impossible. On the other side of the argument, many proponents of inflation are calling for Zimbabwe style hyperinflation. In this business, everyone is entitled to their opinion; however it is my contention that we will get neither deflation nor hyperinflation. If my assessment is correct, once business activity picks up, our world will have to deal with high inflation.

In my father’s house are many mansions. Surely one of them has a room with no elephants in it….

Not to crunch too many metaphors right here at the top, but a consensus seems to be firming up in the animate jello of the Internet that we have entered the Season of the Witch. An odor of ripeness fills the virtual air — something between dead carp and apples baking.

Personal conversions sometimes mark dramatic turns in history. Saul of Taursus saw a vision so bright it left him blind. The next thing you know, he had changed his name and was pushing Christianity all over the world. According to Gibbon, the Roman Empire fell as a consequence. Then, on the advice of his mistress, Gabrielle, Henry IV became a Catholic, leading to the Edict of Nantes and its subsequent revocation.

The inflation/deflation debate is hot… It crackles and pops like a pine fire. But it gives off little helpful light. Abe Lincoln may have read by the light of an open fire. But when we tried it, we singed our eyebrows. It made us suspicious of Old Abe; maybe he wasn’t quite as truthful as he pretended to be. Later, we realized he was a mountebank. But that’s another story…

Our trip to Paris served as a brief distraction from the “good news” chatter that MSM floods us with. “Global confidence index holds at record high as signs recession has ended,” reads Bloomberg. Yesterday, Chairman Ben indicated that the recession is over, sending stocks and commodities higher.

Summer is over…and the rally may be over, too.

Is this the beginning of a new bull market or just a last-gasp bear market rally? We just don’t know. We’ve got a hunch is all. According to value investing guru David Dremen, it doesn’t matter much, either.

Here’s an interesting credit crisis byproduct: The 50 million current Social Security recipients probably won’t see any extra SS income until 2012. In fact, millions on the government dime might see their monthly checks shrink.