Tuesday, the Dow fell 38 points. But the real action is in the gold market – the price rose to $908 per ounce. Even the gold miners are finally going up. What does it mean? Is inflation closer than we thought?
The gold market was obviously open in the U.S. on Martin Luther King Day. But not much happened except a continuation of the decline that began at 11:00 a.m. in London on Monday…which lasted until 3:00 a.m. New York time yesterday…shortly before London opened on Tuesday morning. This decline managed to shave about $18 off the gold price during that period of time.
Fears of deflation are overblown, says Ed Bugos. He refutes the use of the ‘velocity of money’ theory as a reason why prices are ‘destined’ to fall. While a bout of deflation is possible, we know that the Fed will do what it takes to re-inflate. And the real worry should be that it will probably succeed.
The money-printing hand writing is on the wall, says Justice Litle. A severe inflation threat is on the horizon. But the bond market is still pricing in a bout of deflation. And that makes Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) an amazing deal right now.
The battle between inflation and deflation is the most important thing for investors to watch right now, says Adam Lass. Fears of falling prices are rife in Washington today. But the inflation cycle will come around again soon, especially with all the new money being pumped into the economy by the Fed. Adam says that’s why investors should buy the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish ETF (NYSE:UDN).
Responding to growing concern about the quality of the Federal Reserve System’s assets, former Federal Reserve Governor Lyle Gramley told reporters last week that “You have to reckon with the fact that one of the Fed’s assets is gold certificates, which are priced, as I remember, at US$42 an ounce, and if we were to price them at market prices, the Fed’s leverage would look a lot less than it is now.”
Humor me. Let’s crunch those numbers.
Those gold certificates have a book value of about US$14 billion, if you include special drawing rights and coin holdings ($1.7 billion). Even if you revalued this inventory, it would still total less than $300 billion, or 12% ofthe Fed’s total assets. So far,…
In the currency market, the dollar lost most of its early gains but still finished slightly higher against the euro. Late Tuesday, the euro was trading at $1.3529 vs. $1.3588 on Monday.
At the moment, money is being sucked out of the financial system, bringing the threat of deflation. But for James Howard Kunstler, the only question is when the new money being pumped in by the Fed will exceed the amount that has disappeared. James says we could see serious inflation – and a slump in the US dollar – before the end of 2009.
Investors interested in putting their money into China next year may want to look elsewhere for potential gains. It seems that 2009 will be a repeat of 2008, according to a story in today’s People’s Daily.
Here are three things you can buy now to capitalize on spiking unemployment, crashing banks and the tumbling dollar. Earlier this week, Chairman Bernanke and his cronies on the U.S. Federal Reserve did the unthinkable, indeed the unimaginable.
