The moment diesel fuel crested $3/gallon trucking simply could not compete. This trend will only accelerate now that diesel prices have passed the $4 mark.

It’s no shock that mega-investors like Buffett and Soros are reinventing themselves as modern-day rail barons. You should, too:

• Buy CSX (CSX: NYSE)
• Sell Con-Way Frt. (CNW: NYSE)

Adam Lass

Senior Editor, WaveStrength Options Weekly

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Source: Trucking Dies & Railroads Fly When Diesel Fuel Crests $3.00

Retail gas hit its 22nd consecutive daily high yesterday (Thursday), according to AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report.

The average nationwide cost for a gallon of regular unleaded was $3.952, while the average cost for a gallon of diesel was $4.787.

According to the AAA survey, gas prices have increased nearly 10% from a month ago and are up almost 24% from one year ago, CNNMoney.com reported.

Connecticut has the highest average by state at $4.223 for a gallon of regular, while Missouri has the lowest at $3.761.

The average cost of gas has crossed the $4 threshold in 11 states and Washington, D.C.

The cost of gas has climbed steadily higher, following in the wake of soaring oil prices. Oil reached a record high of just above $135 per barrel on May 22, but since then the price has dropped.

Crude oil for July delivery fell $4.31, or 3.3%, to $126.72 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, according to Bloomberg data, as the high cost of gas is finally acting to curb consumer demand.

“There’s a lot of demand destruction taking place,” Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA Inc. in New York, told Bloomberg News. “We are probably headed for $120 in the near term.”

But the slight reprieve we’re currently experiencing is likely to reverse itself just as quickly as we head into the summer driving season and speculators continue to push up the price of “black gold.”

Both Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) recently released reports that have oil soaring over $200 a barrel within the next two years.
Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald – one of the first investment gurus to predict triple-digit oil prices – has boosted his own target, suggesting that oil could go as high as $225 a barrel.

“The math is really simple here,” Fitz-Gerald said in a recent e-mail interview from China. “We are burning through supplies at a rate that’s four times to five times faster than we’re discovering new reserves. Throw in a few [surprises]… perhaps a terrorist event… and add in the accelerating use of oil and gasoline in Third World countries, and we have the recipe for far higher prices.”

Source: Gas Prices Roar to a New Record for the 22nd Straight Day

I managed to pack in four barbecues (or “cookouts” to put it in American lingo) over the weekend – all pretty close to home – so not too much damage done. And with soaring gasoline and food prices contributing to a projected 3.6% rise in consumer prices this year, it might be the best way to go.

Gas prices obviously remain front-and-center of the news, so let’s check in and see how it’s affecting consumers on both sides of the Atlantic, plus an industry that is arguably getting hammered even harder.

National Average Gas Price

Following a daily march higher over the past three weeks, the current national average gas price per gallon sits at an ugly $3.93. But with gas in 11 US states already over $4 a gallon, this number is now more for headlines than anything else. Bottom line: It’s expensive!

Little wonder that AAA projected a drop in Memorial Day travelers this year – the first decline since 2002. Many have also scaled back their plans, due to rising gas prices. And MasterCard reported a 7% drop in gas sales in the week leading up to the holiday.

But it wasn’t just Americans feeling the pressure at the pump this weekend…

Truck JamLike in the US, Monday was also a holiday in Britain, with the long weekend giving Brits a similar chance to hit the road for a short break.

Trouble is, UK gas prices are 17% higher than this time last year, with diesel prices almost 30% higher. The national average is currently $1.14 a liter and $1.26 a liter respectively. In US terms, that’s about $10.16 and $11.23 per gallon.

You can see why 16% of respondents to an Automobile Association survey said they plan to use their cars less.

What bothers many Brits, though, is that about 60% of fuel costs go into the government’s coffers in taxes. And today, the nation’s truckers took their protest to the streets.

In a mass demonstration against high prices and the government’s planned 2 pence per liter fuel tax rise (set to come into effect in October, having been postponed from April), hundreds of truckers set off from various parts around the UK and conducted a “go-slow” along the motorways.

One convoy ended at London, where the truckers handed a petition to the government at Downing Street. The other convoy, starting from further afield, handed its petition to the Welsh Assembly in Cardiff because (ironically), the trip to London would have cost too much.

The underlying problem that the trucking industry faces today is certainly not exclusive to Britain, though. High fuel prices are hammering both British and American truckers. So could America see a similar backlash?

America’s Big Rigs Have Big ProblemsActually, it already has. You may remember some truckers driving their rigs to the Capitol in Washington, D.C. in early April to protest against high fuel prices and imploring Congress to provide some relief measures.

You can see why. While diesel prices are up 30% in Britain over the past year, the price has blasted 80% higher in the US – from $2.50 a gallon this time last year to $4.50 today, according to the New York Times.

When it costs $1,125 to fill up a 250-gallon fuel tank, that clearly crushes any kind of profit margin that trucking companies hope to generate.

In fact, the American Trucking Association says times are so tough today that during the first quarter, 935 companies with fleets of five trucks or more went out of business. That’s up an astonishing 143% from the 385 in Q1 2007 – and is the worst quarterly “bust rate” since 2001.

In total, 45,000 trucking vehicles have permanently pulled off America’s highways since early 2007, according to America’s Commercial Transportation Research.

The domino effect of this is far-reaching. Reduced profits can erode employee wages, decrease supplies of goods, and create more potential for failing companies. In turn, that can cause bankruptcy and dents GDP growth.

So is there a way to play these developments?

Hit The Road (The Railroad, That Is)In a desperate attempt to offset some of the costs, some trucking firms are turning to rail companies.

While trucks can only haul so much and are directly impacted by rising gasoline costs, rail companies can absorb soaring oil prices more easily, as they can haul more goods. A few of the biggest names in this area include:

Burlington Northern Sante Fe (NYSE: BNI) – a firm that Warren Buffett has invested heavily in… Union Pacific Corp (NYSE: UNP)… and CSX Corp (NYSE: CSX).

All three are also members of the Dow Jones Transportation Average (^DJT), which is a remarkable story itself…

Transports Bust The TrendRemarkably, despite the march in oil prices to over $130 a barrel, that hasn’t stopped the Dow Transports from surging, too.

This is a major reversal in the historical trend. Oil prices and the Dow Transports usually move in opposite directions – and you’d think that with fuel being the biggest expense for Transportation Index companies and high oil prices pressuring so many areas of the transportation sector, the index that represents these firms would also be under severe pressure.

Not so. The DJT is actually up 15% in 2008, and as my colleague Jim Stanton reported in his bi-weekly “Sector Watch” column last Monday (May 19), the index raced to an all-time high of 5,550.17 on the same day. Jim applied some technical analysis to the index – and how to play the next move profitably through the index’s ETF – so take a look.

With the index made up of airlines like American (NYSE: AMR), Continental (NYSE: CAL), JetBlue (Nasdaq: JBLU) and Southwest (NYSE: LUV), plus shipping companies FedEx (NYSE: FDX) and UPS (NYSE: UPS) – all of which are buckling under the weight of high oil and gas prices – economists are now hotly debating whether it’s throwing the market a curveball.

Traditionally seen as a sign of US economic strength and turnarounds, the fact that the index is soaring while consumers and the economy are struggling is a source of confusion.

The rate of inflation for the week ended May 15 is expected to be 8.02%, the highest level since September 2004, according to Bloomberg News.

“The current high level of inflation is totally unacceptable, especially in terms of impact on inflationary expectations,” Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Yaga Venugopal Reddy told reporters last week.

Authorities have tried their best to rein inflation in without compromising economic growth. The central bank has left its key interest unchanged but has tightened cash conditions by raising its cash reserve ratio – the amount of cash banks must keep on hand – by 25 basis points to 8.25% as recently as April 29.

The government has stepped in over the past two months to reduce import duties, ban futures trading, halt the export of cement, rice, wheat, and edible oil, and implored steelmakers and cement companies to cut prices.

However, such measures have proved largely ineffective as commodity prices continue to soar. Oil, which climbed to a new record over $135 a barrel last week, is particularly problematic, as state oil firms currently sell fuel at hugely discounted rates.

Selling fuel at such steep discounts cost state-run refiners about $43 billion for the year ended March 31, Serangulam V. Narasimhan, finance director at Indian Oil Corp. Ltd., said May 9. The companies lost roughly $18 billion the year before.

The government in February raised gasoline and diesel prices for the first time in nearly two years in an effort to reduce refiners’ losses, but the increase has achieved little. Another “price hike is inevitable,” although the “specific quantity of the price increase” was still being worked out, Petroleum Secretary M.S. Srinivasan told the AFP.

“We expect a decision in three-to-four days time,” Srinivasan said.

The Press Trust of India reported, without naming sources, that the petroleum ministry was seeking a 10-rupee-a-liter increase in petrol prices and a five-rupee-a-liter hike in diesel prices.

Based on current pump prices in New Delhi, this would represent a 22% increase for petrol and 16% on diesel, according to AFP.

India isn’t the only developing nation fending off inflation. Consumer prices in China jumped 10.3% in April from a year earlier. Inflation has soared throughout Eastern Europe, rising 17.5% in Latvia, 11.4% in Estonia and a staggering 30.2% in the Ukraine, according to Bloomberg News data.

“Inflation, now in double digits in many countries, is the region’s most pressing current problem,” the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said in a recent economic outlook report. “If left unaddressed, inflation could risk price-wage spirals, exchange rate re-alignments, or could force a belated and sharp response by monetary policy.”

Source: India and Other Emerging Economies Continue to Struggle With Inflation